This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.

This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The recent advances in GIS technology as well as data availability open up new possibilities concerning urban storm runoff modeling. In this paper, a vector-based distributed storm event runoff model - the Tokyo Storm Runoff (TSR) model - is developed and tested for urban runoff analysis using two historical storm events. The set-up of this model is based on urban landscape GIS delineation that faithfully describes the complicated urban land use features in detail. The flow between single spatial elements is based on established hydraulic and hydrological models with equations that describe all aspects of storm runoff generation in an urban environment. The model was set up and evaluated for the small urban lower Ekota catchment in Tokyo Metropolis, Japan. No calibration or tuning was performed, but the general model formulation was used with standard parameter values obtained from the literature. The runoff response to two storm events were simulated; one minor event resulting only in a small-scale flood wave and one major event which inundated parts of the catchment. For both events, the simulated water levels closely reproduced the observed ones. For the major event, also the reported inundation area was well described by the model. It was also demonstrated how the model can be used to evaluate the flow conditions in specific components of the urban hydrological system, which facilitates e.g. evaluation of flood-preventive measures. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The hydrologic community has recently focused substantial attention on ungauged or poorly gauged catchments, since hydrological prediction under these conditions is highly uncertain, but represents the majority of practical applications. Catchments in Greece are usually ungauged, due to resource constrains, whilst in gauged areas the period of record is often short for safe estimation of highly parameterised hydrological models. This paper is driven by the Prediction in Ungauged Basins initiative aiming to estimate catchment responses using readily available data, i.e. topographical, soil and land use information. The parsimonious rainfall-runoff model developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment is based on the Clark's synthetic unit hydrograph technique to estimate the hydrological response. The method requires estimation of the time of concentration (based on the curve number), the storage attenuation coefficient and the time area histogram of the catchment. The models further compared with a data-based modelling approach using a Transfer Function and the simulated streamflow is analysed to investigate similarities as well as to better understand possible extensions of the resulting unit hydrograph. A case study using 10-minute observed data from the 15 km(2) Lykorema catchment, Attica, Greece, highlights the potential of the GIS-based model to predict, at least, the dynamic characteristics of the runoff response in ungauged or poorly gauged catchments.

Den här rapporten är en kunskapssammanställning som utförts av SMHI på uppdrag av Havs- och Vattenmyndigheten. Den utgör inte något ställningstagande från Havs- och vattenmyndighetens sida. Rapporten försöker att sammanfatta den problematik som associeras med näringsämnesbelastningar från fiskodlingar i öppna kassar, vilka typer av beräkningar som kan behöva göras för att få en uppfattning om hur dessa kan påverka miljön samt några olika typer av modeller för detta ändamål.

Fisk-, alg- och skaldjursodling är en växande industri runt om i världen som kan ge såväl näringsrik och hälsosam mat som arbetstillfällen. En nackdel med framförallt fiskodling i öppna kassar är att den kan innebära en påfrestning för vattenmiljön. De näringsämnen som ofta släpps ut från odlingen kan bidra till den övergödningsproblematik som redan finns i många sjöar och havsområden. Det är därför av största vikt att få en god uppskattning av den förväntade storleken på utsläppen förknippade med en öppen odling samt hur de kan tänkas förändra vattenkvaliteten på odlingsplatsen och dess närhet. Beräkningsmodeller kan vara till god hjälp vid bedömningen.

Fiskar utsöndrar lösta näringsämnen och från odlingskassarna faller det också ut partikulärt organiskt material i form av fekalier och oätet foder. Storleken på näringsämneskällorna behöver beräknas och det finns modeller av olika komplexitet för att uppskatta detta. Storleken på det partikulära avfallet är viktigt dels för att det bidrarmed näringsämnen till vattnet och dels för att det kan ge upphov till ansamlingar av organiskt material på bottnen. När det organiska materialet bryts ner förbrukas syre och om ansamlingarna blir omfattande finns en risk för att det uppstår syrebrist vid bottnen. Om svavelväte bildas kan det orsaka skador på såväl den odlade fisken som det lokala ekosystemet. Odlingen kan också bidra till en försämrad vattenkvalitet i sin omgivning genom att tillgången av lösta näringsämnen blir större och därmed ge en ökad algproduktion. Den ökade algproduktionen skall i sin tur brytas ner och kan i förlängningen bidra till syrebristproblematiken.

Det finns ett antal modeller som är specifikt utvecklade för fiskodlingar i öppna kassar och de tar i olika hög grad upp den beskrivna problematiken. Rapporten innehåller detaljerade genomgångar av några av modeller för att visa på styrkor och svagheter kring olika angreppsätt. Den innehåller också sammanfattningar av några vanligt förekommande modeller som använts internationellt vid bedömning av fiskodlingars miljöpåverkan. För att minska den negativa påverkan på vattenmiljön från har det också utvecklats recirkulerande system för odling. Rapporten tar inte upp belastning från den typen av fiskodlingar. Om utsläppen från ett sådant system är känt kan dock vattenkvalitetsmodeller användas för att se effekten av utsläpp från en punktkälla.

Rapporten sammanfattar ett antal vattenkvalitetsmodeller för sjöar, vattendrag, kust och hav. En vattenkvalitetsmodell behöver inte nödvändigtvis vara utvecklad för att beskriva konsekvenser av fiskodlingar men bör kunna hantera frågeställningar som uppkommer vid bedömningar av övergödningsrisk vid utsläpp från en punktkälla. Den behöver därför kunna simulera parametrar såsom förändringen av näringsämneskoncentrationer, primärproduktion, siktdjup och syrgashalter på olika nivåer i vattenmassan. Modeller för den här typen av uppskattningar finns också i olika komplexitetsgrad och för olika skalor i tid och rum.

Vid modellering är en god tillgång till observationer en förutsättning för pålitliga modellresultat och behövs såväl för att driva och kalibrera modellen som för validering av modellresultaten. Det är viktigt att tillgängliga data håller god kvalitet. En noggrann analys och beskrivning av den tillgängliga databasen hjälper därmed till att bedöma tillförlitligheten av modellsimuleringarna.

ECOSUPPORT-projektet syftar till att ta fram forskningsresultat om Östersjöns miljöstatus under olika scenarier av belastning av näringsämnen och fisketryck i ett framtida klimat. Resultaten kan ligga till grund som vägledning för beslutsfattare. För att forskningsresultaten skall kunna göras begripliga och tillgängliga har en ny form av vetenskapskommunikation prövats. Presentation av en stor mängd data samt beskrivning av fysiska och biogeokemiska processer på land och i havet gjordes med hjälp av en speciell visualiseringsplatform, Uniview, som visades på en kupolformad filmduk inuti en uppblåsbar domteater. Visualiseringen visades för olika typer av publik, t.ex. för beslutsfattare, politisk ledning, forskare och studenter. Överlag så har responsen varit mycket positiv och de flesta som tagit del av visningarna menar att den här formen av kommunikation gör det lättare att förstå och ta till sig komplexa data och sammanhang. Denna åsikt delades också av de vetenskapliga presentatörerna

Kommunala VA-organisationer har ofta endast tillgång till ett glest nät med regnmätare (ett tiotal regnstationer i Stockholm). I glesa nät finns en risk att modellberäknade avloppsflöden under- eller överskattas när regnskurar passerar där det inte finns någon station, eller när en areamässigt liten skur träffaren station. Att hålla stationsnätet fungerande och tillförlitligt är dessutom en resurskrävande uppgift. Mikrovågslänkar i mobiltelefonnät kan mäta regn. Länknätverket är mycket tätare än regnstationerna(här undersöks 500 länkar i Stockholm), och underhålls kontinuerligt. Länkarna kan därför utgöra ettvärdefullt komplement till regnstationer. Studien jämför initialt regndata från länkar och regnstationer.Generellt observerades lägre maximala regnintensiteter för länkar än för regnstationer: ju kortare regnvaraktighet desto större skillnad. Studiens andra del undersöker hur en ökad täthet på och olika typer avregndata påverkar avrinning, flöden och bräddning i avloppsnätet m.h.a. en hydraulisk modell. Resultatenvisar på stora skillnader i beräknat flöde mellan nät med olika täthet (ibland +/-80 %), och att en dubblerad täthet var tillräcklig vid de sju studerade regntillfällena. Förtätning av nätet m.h.a. länkar gav ocksåen bättre överensstämmelse med uppmätt inflöde till Henriksdals reningsverk. Sammanfattningsvis haroperativa mobilnät stor potential att komplettera regnstationer i VA-verksamhet.

This study quantifies the potential effects of a set of technologies to address wafer and fertility constraints in rain. fed smallholder agriculture in South Africa, namely in situ water harvesting (WH), external WH, and ecological sanitation (Ecosan, fertilization with human urine); We Used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to model spatiotemporally differentiated effects on maize yield, river flow, evaporation, and transpiration. Ecosan Met some of the plant nitrogen demands, which significantly increased maize yields by 12% and transpiration by 2% on average across South Africa. In situ and external WH did not significantly affect the yield, transpiration or river flow on the South Africa scale. However, external WH. more than doubled the yields for specific seasons and locations. WH particularly increased the lowest yields. Significant, water and nutrient demands remained even with WH and Ecosan management. Additional fertility enhancements raised the yield levels but also the yield variability, whereas soil moisture enhancements improved the yield stability. Hence, coupled policies' addressing both constraints will likely be Most effective for improving food security.

The HBV-N model was used for a scenario analysis of changes in nitrogen retention and transport caused by alterations of wetness due to land drainage, lowering of lakes, building of dams and climatic variability in a river basin in south-central Sweden (1885-1994). In general, dams were situated in locations more favourable for retention, compared to the lowered lakes. Rather modest conversions of water bodies only changed nitrogen transport by about 3%. The 180-times-larger increase of (mainly) tile-drained agricultural land had, according to simulations, increased the nitrogen transport by 17%, due to reduced retention. However, compared to human-induced alteration of the landscape N retention, the choice of 10-year periods of climatological data had the overriding effect on the calculated nitrogen transport. Weather-induced variations resulted in a 13% difference in nitrogen retention between various 10-year periods. When the model was driven by climatological data from the driest 10-year period (1905-1914), the estimated average annual load was only half of that obtained with climatological data from the wettest 10-year period (1975-1984).

Changes in environmental conditions within a river basin in South Central Sweden (1400 km(2)) and impacts on riverine nitrogen (N) transport were evaluated. A historical database was compiled and the process-based HBV-N model used to estimate flow normalised N loads in 1885, 1905, 1927, 1956, 1976, and 1994, using a standard climatological record (1985-1994). The study shows the value of process-based modelling in environmental impact assessment, by making it possible to assess and integrate the effect of a number of factors, both with regard to human impact and natural climatic variability. Factors taken into account include: the effects of land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, human dietary intake, use of flush toilets, lowering of lakes, building of dams, and climatic variability. For all years studied, agriculture was the overriding source of N, and changes in riverine N over time mainly reflected changes in land use and agricultural practices. In spite of decreasing N-leaching from agriculture, the net load remained fairly constant between 1885 and 1927, due to reduced N retention. Drainage of agricultural land had a dominating impact on reducing N retention, which increased the N loads, while the effects of the lowering of lake levels and dam building were less pronounced. Household N emission per capita was higher in 1994 than in 1927, as the increased consumption of meat and dairy products alone resulted in a higher increase of the emission than was compensated for with wastewater treatment improvement. In addition, introduction of flush toilets increased the emission from households. In total, the net load in 1976 was twofold higher than that in 1885, 1905 and 1927, due to increased leaching from agriculture, wastewater emission, and atmospheric deposition on lake surfaces. Finally, the impact of climatological variability was assessed, using a 110-yr climatological record. The choice of 10-yr period of climatological data was the factor that had the largest impact on calculated N load.

Regeringen gav 2014 SMHI i uppdrag att följa upp och analysera det arbete med klimatanpassning som skett sedan Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen 2007. Inom uppdraget har bedömningar gjorts av återstående behov av åtgärder, och förslag lämnas på fortsatt arbete med klimatanpassning. Klimatförändringarna medför att Sverige blir både varmare och blötare. Risken för extremväder ökar med tillhörande problem för viktiga samhällsfunktioner. Kommunerna och andra lokala aktörer är de som står för huvuddelen av genomförandet av konkreta åtgärder och praktisk implementering av klimatanpassningsarbetet i Sverige. För att klimatanpassning ska kunna genomföras på lokal och regional nivå krävs dock nationellt stöd. Det behövs en nationell färdplan för att de samhällsekonomiska kostnaderna ska hållas så låga som möjligt. Viktiga delar i en sådan färdplan är anpassning av regelverk och att tydliggöra roller och ansvar samt strategier och mål. Det är nödvändigt att snabbt klarlägga hur kostnader fördelas mellan olika aktörer, och hur det säkerställs att resurser finns tillgängliga till prioriterade åtgärder. Klimatanpassning är inte enbart en lokal och nationell fråga. Sverige bör som aktiv medlem i EU driva klimatanpassningsfrågan framåt. Dessutom bör svensk klimatanpassningspolitik ta hänsyn till att Sverige även påverkas indirekt av klimatförändringar som sker i andra länder. Behov av såväl forsknings- som utvecklingsinsatser har identifierats, liksom långtidsövervakning av klimatförändringar och dess effekter. Att tillgängliggöra kunskap, beslutsstöd, prognos- och varningssystem är en av nycklarna till verkningsfullt arbete. I rapporten konstateras också att näringslivet och försäkringsbranschen har viktiga roller att spela i klimatanpassningsarbetet när frågor kring risker, investeringsbeslut och nya affärsmöjligheter kommer att stå i fokus.

A participatory methodology, based on dialogues between stakeholders and experts has been developed and tested in the drainage area to Kaggebo Bay in the Baltic Sea. This study is focused on the EU Water Framework Directive, with emphasis on reduction of eutrophication. The drainage area is included in the WFD administrative area of the Motala Strom River basin. A similar approach is now applied in a recently initiated project in the Thukela River basin, with focus on impacts of climate change on water resources. The methodology is based on the idea that a catchment model serves as a platform for the establishment of a common view of present conditions and the causes behind these conditions. In the following steps, this is followed by model-assisted agreement on environmental goals (i.e. what do we want the future to look like?) and local agreement on a remedy or mitigation plans in order to reduce environmental impact (e. g. eutrophication); alternatively to adapt to conditions that cannot be determined by local actions (e. g. climate change). By involving stakeholder groups in this model-supported stepwise process, it is ensured that all stakeholder groups involved have a high degree of confidence in the presented model results, and thereby enable various actors involved to share a common view, regarding both present conditions, goals and the way to reach these goals. Although this is a process that is time-(and cost-) consuming, it is hypothesised that the use of this methodology is two-pronged: it increases the willingness to carry out remedies or necessary adaptations to a changing environment, and it increases the level of understanding between the various groups and therefore ameliorates the potential for future conflicts. Compared to traditional use of model results in environmental decision-making, the experts' role is transformed from a one-way communication of final results to assistance in the various steps of the participatory process.

Regeringen gav år 2014 SMHI i uppdrag att utarbeta underlag till Kontrollstation2015 för anpassning till ett förändrat klimat. Som en del av uppdraget ingick att göra en uppdaterad sammanställning av kunskapen om nuvarande och framtida risker och konsekvenser, främst med utgångspunkt från Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningens slutbetänkande (SOU 2007:60). I föreliggande rapport beskrivs kunskapsläget kring det svenska samhällets sårbarhet för ett förändrat klimat. Klimatförändringarna påverkar hela samhället. Generellt kan sägas att medvetenheten om klimatförändringarnas påverkan har ökat, men det saknas en del kunskap och verktyg, främst på den lokala nivån. Översvämningsriskerna kring sjöar och längs vattendrag ökar, vilket kan påverka bebyggelse och infrastruktur. Risken för ras och skred tros också öka, främst i landets västra och sydvästra delar samt områden längs östra kusten. Erosion längs vattendrag, sjöar och kuster kan komma att öka i delar av landet. Vattentillgång och -kvalitet kommer att påverkas av förändrade nederbördsmönster, ökad spridning av föroreningar samt ökade mikrobiologiskarisker. Energisystemet kommer att utsättas för större påfrestningar, särskilt av extrema väderhändelser. Kunskapen har ökat kring klimatförändringarnas effekter på energisystemet, men det kvarstår kunskapsluckor relaterade till extremväder och anpassningsåtgärder. Kunskap och medvetenhet om klimatförändringarnas påverkan på kommunikationerna i samhället har ökat, men det finns fortfarande behov av mer utredning och verktyg. Förutsättningarna för jordbruket förbättras i huvudsak, med möjlighet till ökade skördar och nya grödor. Samtidigt kommer fler skadegörare och ogräs in. Nya behov av bevattning kan uppstå och markavvattningen kan behöva en översyn. Eventuellt minskat utbud av livsmedel på världsmarknaden, kan innebära ökad efterfrågan på svenska livsmedel. Samtidigt går Sverige idag mot ökat importberoende. Även djurhållningen står inför stora utmaningar. Å ena sidan kan djuren gå ute under en längre del av året och möjligheterna att vara självförsörjande med foder ökar. Men det varmare klimatet medför också risk för att nya djursjukdomar uppträder. Konsekvenserna för den svenska skogen och skogsbruket kommer att bli betydande. Ökad tillväxt ger större virkesproduktion, men ökad frekvens och omfattning av skador från främst insekter, svampar och storm samt blötare skogsmark kan föra med sig stora kostnader. Stora regionala skillnader i utbudet av kommersiellt virke kan påverka svensk skogsindustri. Förändrade förutsättningar är också att vänta för fiskbestånden. Nya fiskarter i svenska vatten kan föra med sig nya smittor och konkurrera ut befintliga arter i känsliga ekosystem. Renskötseln i Sverige kommer att allvarligt påverkas av klimatförändringarna och effekterna utgör stora utmaningar. Klimatförändringarna ger både positiva och negativa effekter för turismen. Det finns hinder för anpassningskapaciteten, bland annat bristande organisering av besöksnäringen. Människors och djurs hälsa kan påverkas direkt av extrema väderhändelser. Ett varmare klimat ger även upphov till förändrade smittspridningsmönster och nya sjukdomar kan nå Sverige. Förändringar i luft, vatten och mark, orsakade av klimatförändringar, kan också påverka hälsotillståndet för djur och människor. På nationell nivå är kunskaperna om risker för bebyggelse tillräckliga för att rekommendera åtgärder, men det saknas lokala beslutsunderlag. För kulturarvet behöver kunskapen öka. Klimatförändringarna förväntas leda till förändringar för den biologiska mångfalden och ekosystemen. Det påverkar förmågan att nå flera av Sveriges miljömål och behöver ses i samband med andra miljöhot. Det finns bland annat behov av regionala kartläggningar av hur arter, ekosystem, naturtyper och biologisk mångfald kan påverkas. Risk- och säkerhetsperspektivet har växt fram under senare år, men präglas av utmaningar avseende metoder. Mycket få studier behandlar förhållanden i Sverige.

The dynamic catchment model HBV-N has been further developed by adding routines for phosphorus transport and is now called the HBV-NP model. The model was shown to satisfactorily simulate nutrient dynamics in the Ronnea catchment (1 900 km(2)). Its sensitivity to input data was tested, and results demonstrated the increased sensitivity to the selection of input data on a subcatchment scale when compared with the catchment scale. Selection of soil and land use databases was found to be critical in some subcatchments but did not have a significant impact on a catchment scale. Although acceptable on a catchment scale, using templates and generalization, with regards to emissions from point sources and rural households, significantly decreased model performance in certain subcatchments when compared with using more detailed local information. A division into 64 subcatchments resulted in similar model performance at the catchment outlet when compared with a lumped approach. Adjusting the imported matrixes of the regional leaching of nitrogen, from agricultural land, against mean subcatchment water percolation did not have a significant impact on the model performance.

Denna rapport har sitt ursprung i projektet Deltagande modellering för bedömning av lokal inverkan av klimatvariabilitet och förändringar på vattenresurser (PAMO), finansierat av Sida och Research Links (NFR i Sydafrika, samt VR i Sverige). Projektet baseras på interaktion mellan vattenintressenter i Mhlwazini/Bergville området av Thukelas avrinningsområde och klimat och vattenforskare från University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) och SMHI under en serie av workshops under 2007-2009. Mellan workshops har forskarna tagit fram klimatförändringsrelaterad information med lokal relevans, baserat på önskemål från deltagarna i workshops. Denna information har sedan använts som ett underlag till framtagandet av en anpassningsplan. Syftet är att tillhandahålla en lokal bedömning av sårbarhet relaterad till påverkan på vattenresurser av klimatförändringar, samt en lokalt föreslagen anpassningsstrategi. Existerande klimatrelaterade problem och nuvarande anpassningsstrategier har identifierats och rekommendationer för framtida aktioner, baserade på sannolikhet för förändringar och kännbarheten av konsekvenserna om dessa förändringar inträffar.

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.

Den här rapporten sammanfattar det hydrologiska kartmaterial över förändring i medelavrinning, höga flöden och vattenkraftspotential som har levererats till den statliga Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen.Beräkningarna som ligger till grund för kartmaterialet har utförts med modellsystemet HBV Sverige. Dagens klimat har baserats på observerad temperatur och nederbörd för perioden 1961-1990. Beräkningar av hydrologiska förhållanden i framtidens klimat har baserats på resultat från regional klimatmodellering vid Rossby Centre på SMHI. Sammantaget har hydrologiska beräkningar genomförts för fem olika framtidsscenarier, fyra beräkningar för perioden 2071-2100 och en beräkning för hela perioden 1961-2100. I detta arbete har två olika metoder för att omsätta klimatmodellresultaten till hydrologiska effekter använts, delta-metoden och scaling-metoden.Medelavrinningen kommer enligt scenarierna att öka för större delen av Sverige, med undantag för de sydöstra delarna av landet. Vad det gäller höga flöden är bilden mer komplex, men i sydvästra Sverige och fjällen blir, enligt scenarierna, höga flöden betydligt vanligare. Vattenkraftspotentialen förväntas enligt scenarierna att öka avsevärt för Sverige som helhet. Alla resultat från HBV Sverige ska i första hand användas för en översiktlig tolkning och identifiering av var fördjupade studier kan vara av särskilt behov. Beräkningarna baserade på den s.k. scaling-metoden är mer preliminära än de övriga beräkningarna eftersom metoden fortfarande är under utveckling.AbstractThis report summarizes the water resource maps of changes in mean annual runoff, large floods and hydropower potential that have been delivered to the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability.The hydrological model simulations that have been used to produce the maps were done using the HBV Sweden modelling system. Simulations for present climate used observed input of precipitation and temperature from 1961-1990. Calculations of future hydrological conditions were based on results from regional climate modelling at the Rossby Centre, SMHI. Five different regional scenarios of future climate have been used, four representing the future period 2071-2100 and one for the whole period 1961-2100. Two different approaches to interface the hydrological model and the climate models have been used, the delta method and the scaling method.The mean annual runoff will, according to the scenarios, increase for most parts of Sweden except for the south-east parts of the country. The picture becomes more complex when it comes to changes in large floods, but they are expected to increase substantially in the south-west parts and in the Swedish mountains according to the scenarios. The total Swedish hydropower potential is expected to increase substantially according to the scenarios.All results from HBV Sweden should only be used for a general interpretation of where more in depth analyses might be of interest. The simulations based on the so-called scaling method are more preliminarythan the other simulations, since the method is still under development.

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

A participatory modelling process (DEMO) has been developed and applied in a 350 km(2) catchment in southern Sweden. The overall goal is to improve the dialogues between experts and local stakeholders by using numerical models as a platform for discussions. The study is focused on reducing nutrient load and on the development of a locally established measure plan, which is requested by the European Water Framework Directive. The HBV-NP model was chosen as it can calculate effects and costs for different allocations of several combined measures in a catchment. This paper shows the impact of including local data in the modelling process vs. using more general data. It was found that modelled diffuse nutrient pollution was highly modified when including local know-how, soft information and more detailed field investigations. Leaching from arable land was found to be 35% higher using more detailed information on for instance, agricultural practices, crop and soil distribution. Moreover, the stakeholders' acceptance of model results and reliance on experts was increased by applying the participatory process and involving stakeholders in the modelling procedure.

The Swedish Water Management Research Programme (VASTRA) focuses on the development and demonstration of tools for more efficient eutrophication control when implementing the EU water framework directive in Sweden. During the first half of the programme, models for nitrogen flow were developed, and at present, similar models for phosphorus are under construction (e.g. HBV-P). The programme is interdisciplinary, and scientists are collaborating in actor-games and focus group evaluations including scenario analysis. The scenarios modelled in VASTRA phase 1, show that (i) changed agricultural practices can be the most effective and-least expensive way to reduce nitrogen transport from land to, the sea; (ii) constructed agricultural wetlands may only have small impact on riverine nitrogen transport in some regions, due to natural hydrometeorological dynamics; (iii) removing planktivorous fish may be an efficient way of reducing the algal concentrations in lakes without the undesired side-effect of increased nutrient load to the down-stream river system. In VASTRA phase 11, one of the highlights will be interdisciplinary scenario-modelling of different measure strategies in a pilot catchment of southern Sweden (Ronne a).

Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled in the Ronnea catchment. Additionally, biological response was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsjon. The results are compared with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%); ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such as cyanobacteria (+80%).

The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication and attempts are being made to reduce nutrient loads. This article focuses on nitrogen transport from southern Sweden (145 000 km(2)), and presents a model approach (HBV-N) that has been used in the national decision-making process for best management practices. Calculations of nitrogen leaching, retention in the freshwater system, net transport to the sea, and source apportionment are presented for the period 1985-1994. Input data were handled in GIS, including results from SOIL-N and MATCH. Daily simulations were made in 3725 subbasins with calibration against measured time series at 722 sites. Diffuse source pollution was normally retained by 10-25% before entering the river network. Lakes normally reduced nitrogen transport by 30-40 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) of lake area. On average, 45% of the annual gross load was reduced during transport, but temporal and spatial variations were great. 75 000 tonnes N yr(-1) reached the sea.

Eutrophication problems in the Baltic Sea have drawn attention to the contribution of nutrients from surrounding countries. By using the HBV-N model in southern Sweden (145 000 km(2)) daily nitrogen leaching, reduction in rivers and lakes, net transport to the sea and source apportionment have been calculated in 3725 subbasins for the period 1985-1994, with calibration at 722 sites against measured time series. On average, 48% of the nonpoint losses from agriculture were reduced during the transport towards the sea, which left about 33 500 tonnes in annual mean net transport. This represents 45% of the total land-based load. Land cover and emissions for the years of 1985 and 1994 were used in two separate simulations of the 10-year period. The normalized gross leakage from arable land in 1985 was estimated to 29 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), which corresponds to 15 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in net leakage to the sea. In 1994 these transports were reduced by 20 and 15%, and thereby the total load on the sea was decreased by 7%. This is still far from the Swedish goal of 50% reduction. The article presents the spatial variation of nitrogen leakage and retention within the southern half of Sweden, and emphasizes the importance of allocating measures where down-stream retention is low in order to achieve efficiency with respect to the sea. It is shown that the model approach may be used in the decision making process for best management practices in watersheds. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.

Water resource management is often based on numerical models, and large-scale models are sometimes used for international strategic agreements. Sometimes the modelled area entails several political entities and river basins. To avoid methodological bias in results, methods and databases should be homogenous across political and geophysical boundaries, but this may involve fewer details and more assumptions. This paper quantifies the uncertainty when the same model code is applied using two different input datasets; a more detailed one for the country of Sweden (S-HYPE) and a more general one for the entire Baltic Sea basin (Balt-HYPE). Results from the two model applications were compared for the Swedish landmass and for two specific Swedish river basins. The results show that both model applications may be useful in providing spatial information of water and nutrients at various scales. For water discharge, most relative errors are <10% for S-HYPE and <25% for Balt-HYPE. Both applications reproduced the most mean concentration for nitrogen within 25% of the observed mean values, but phosphorus showed a larger scatter. Differences in model set-up were reflected in the simulation of both spatial and temporal dynamics. The most sensitive data were precipitation/temperature, agriculture and model parameter values.

The eutrophication problem has drawn attention to nutrient leaching from arable land in southern Sweden, and further understanding of spatial and temporal variability is needed in order to develop decision-making tools. Thus, the influence of spatial and temporal variables was analysed statistically using empirical time series of different nutrient species from 35 well-documented catchments (2-35 km(2)), which have been monitored for an average of 5 years. In the spatial analysis several significant correlations between winter median concentrations and catchment characteristics were found. The strongest correlation was found between inorganic nitrogen and land use, while concentrations of different phosphorus species were highly correlated to soil texture. Multiple linear regression models gave satisfactory results for prediction of median winter concentrations in unmeasured catchments, especially for inorganic nitrogen and phosphate. In the analysis of temporal variability within catchments, internal variables from a dynamic hydrological model (HBV) were linked to concentration fluxes. It was found that phosphorus and inorganic nitrogen concentrations were elevated during flow increase at low-Bow conditions, while they were diluted as the wetness in the catchment increased. During unmonitored periods regression models were successful in predicting temporal variability of total phosphorus, phosphate and inorganic nitrogen, while organic nitrogen and particulate phosphorus could not be predicted with this approach. Dividing the data into different flow categories did not improve the prediction of nutrient concentration dynamics. The results and literature review presented, confirm parts of the present HBV-W model approach and will be useful for further development of nutrient routines linked to dynamic hydrological models. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the country (450 000 km(2)) with high-resolution dynamic model projections of the upcoming century. The results show that the changes in annual maximum daily flows in Sweden oscillate between dry and wet periods but exhibit no significant trend over the past 100 years. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver of changes in river high flows, which are related primarily to snowmelt in Sweden. Annual daily high flows may decrease by on average -1% per decade in the future, mainly due to lower peaks from snowmelt in the spring (-2% per decade) as a result of higher temperatures and a shorter snow season. In contrast, autumn flows may increase by + 3% per decade due to more intense rainfall. This indicates a shift in floodgenerating processes in the future, with greater influence of rain-fed floods. Changes in climate may have a more significant impact on some specific rivers than on the average for the whole country. Our results suggest that the temporal pattern in future daily high flow in some catchments will shift in time, with spring floods in the northern-central part of Sweden occurring about 1 month earlier than today. High flows in the southern part of the country may become more frequent. Moreover, the current boundary between snow-driven floods in northern-central Sweden and rain-driven floods in the south may move toward higher latitudes due to less snow accumulation in the south and at low altitudes. The findings also indicate a tendency in observations toward the modeled projections for timing of daily high flows over the last 25 years. Uncertainties related to both the observed data and the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology are discussed.

Since the early 1970s operational flood forecasts in Sweden have been based on the hydrological HBV model. However, the model is only one component in a chain of processes for production of hydrological forecasts. During the last 35 years there has been considerable work on improving different parts of the forecast procedure and results from specific studies have been reported frequently. Yet, the results have not been compared in any overall assessment of potential for improvements. Therefore we formulated and applied a method for translating results from different studies to a common criterion of error reduction. The aim was to quantify potential improvements in a systems perspective and to identify in which part of the production chain efforts would result in significantly better forecasts. The most sensitive (> 20% error reduction) components were identified for three different operational-forecast types. From the analyses of historical efforts to minimise the errors in the Swedish flood-forecasting system, it was concluded that 1) general runoff simulations and predictions could be significantly improved by model structure and calibration, model equations (e.g. evapotranspiration expression), and new precipitation input using radar data as a complement to station gauges; 2) annual spring-flood forecasts could be significantly improved by better seasonal meteorological forecast, fresh re-calibration of the hydrological model based on long time-series, and data assimilation of snow-pack measurements using georadar or gamma-ray technique; 3) short-term (2 days) forecasts could be significantly improved by up-dating using an auto-regressive method for discharge, and by ensembles of meteorological forecasts using the median at occasions when the deterministic forecast is out of the ensemble range. The study emphasises the importance of continuously evaluating the entire production chain to search for potential improvements of hydrological forecasts in the operational environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hydrological-based model (HBV-NP) was applied to a catchment (1900 km(2)) in the southern part of Sweden. Careful characterization of the present load situation and the potential for improved treatment or reduced soil leaching were analyzed. Several scenarios were modeled to find strategies to reach the Swedish environmental goals of reducing anthropogenic nitrogen load by 30% and phosphorus load by 20%. It was stated that the goals could be reached by different approaches that would affect different polluters and social sectors. However, no single measure was enough by itself. Instead, a combination of measures was necessary to achieve the goals. The nitrogen goal was the most difficult to attain. In order to be cost-effective, these measures should be applied to areas contributing the most to the net loading of the sea. This strategy could reduce the costs by 70%-80% when compared with implementing the measures in the entire catchment. Integrated catchment models may thus be helpful tools for reducing costs in environmental control programs.

Measure plans are currently being developed for the Water Framework Directive (WFD) by European water authorities. In Sweden, such plans include measures for good ecological status in the coastal ecosystem. However, the effect of suggested measures is not yet known. We therefore experimented with different nutrient reduction measures on land and in the sea, using a model system of two coupled dynamic models for a semi-enclosed bay and its catchment. The science question was whether it is worthwhile to implement measures in the local catchment area to reach local environmental goals, or if the status of the Bay is more governed by the water exchange with the Sea. The results indicate that by combining several measures in the catchment, the nutrient load can be reduced by 15%-20%. To reach the same effect on nutrient concentrations in the Bay, the concentrations of the sea must be reduced by 80%. Hence, in this case, local measures have a stronger impact on coastal water quality. The experiment also show that the present targets for good ecological status set up by the Swedish water authorities may be unrealistic for this Bay. Finally, we discuss when and how to use hydro-ecological models for societal needs.

Den här rapporten har tagits fram på uppdrag av Naturvårdsverket för att underlätta diskussionen med EU-kommissionen, som har annonserat att den tänker stämma Sverige inför EU-domstolen för otillräckligt genomförande av avloppsdirektivet. Vid bedömningen av vilka reningsverk som omfattas av krav på kväverening tas i Sverige hänsyn till den naturliga avskiljning (retention) som sker i vattendrag under transporten från utsläppskälla till havet.Kväveretention är ett vedertaget begrepp som inkluderar ett flertal naturliga biogeokemiska processer som permanent reducerar kväve från vattenfasen i sjöar och vattendrag. Speciellt stor är effekten i sjörika områden. Naturlig retention är dock svår att mäta. I Sverige har man utvecklat ett modellsystem för storskalig beräkning av närsalttransport, inklusive retention, från land till hav med relativt hög geografisk upplösning. Systemet kopplar fältskalemodeller med avrinningsmodeller (HBV-NP), är vetenskapligt dokumenterat och granskat och har tillämpats storskaligt sedan 1997 för internationell rapportering till HELCOM.Det är stor skillnad i sjöars retentionskapacitet; i norra delarna av landet är den låg medan sjöarna i de södra delarna av landet är betydligt effektivare som kvävesänkor. Totalt reduceras ca 30 000 tonkväve per år i sjöar och vattendrag, varav 70% i södra Sverige.De reningsverk vars utsläpp passerar fler sjöar får liten påverkan på havet. Naturlig kväveretention i vattendrag och sjöar reducerar de svenska reningsverkens bidrag till kusten med 3200 ton/år, vilketmotsvarar 18% av reningsverkens totala utsläpp. Retentionen varierar dock betydligt mellan olika delar av landet. De flesta reningsverk med större utsläpp finns längs kusten och i södra Sverige.