Phosphorus fertilisation (eutrophication) is expanding oxygen depletion in coastal systems worldwide. Under low-oxygen bottom water conditions, phosphorus release from the sediment is elevated, which further stimulates primary production. It is commonly assumed that re-oxygenation could break this "vicious cycle" by increasing the sedimentary phosphorus retention. Recently, a deep-water inflow into the Baltic Sea created a natural in situ experiment that allowed us to investigate if temporary re-oxygenation stimulates sedimentary retention of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP). Surprisingly, during this 3-year study, we observed a transient but considerable increase, rather than a decrease, in the sediment efflux of DIP and other dissolved biogenic compounds. This suggested that the oxy-genated inflow elevated the organic matter degradation in the sediment, likely due to an increase in organic matter supply to the deeper basins, potentially combined with a transient stimulation of the mineralisation efficiency. As a result, the net sedimentary DIP release per m(2) was 56 %-112% higher over the years following the re-oxygenation than before. In contrast to previous assumptions, our results show that inflows of oxygenated water to anoxic bottom waters can increase the sedimentary phosphorus release.

The aphorism, 'All models are wrong, but some models are useful', originally referred to statistical models, but is now used for scientific models in general. When presenting results from a marine simulation model, this statement effectively stops discussions about the quality of the model, as there is always another observation to mismatch, and thereby another confirmation why the model cannot be trusted. It is common that observations are less challenged and are often viewed as a 'gold standard' for judging models, whereas proper interpretations and the true value of models are often overlooked. Models are not perfect, and there are many examples where models are used improperly to provide misleading answers with great confidence, but to what extent does an observation represent the truth? The precision of the observational gear may be high, but what about representativeness? The interpretation of observations is simply another model, but this time not coded in a computer language but rather formed by the individual observer. We submit that it would be more productive to initiate a process where the norm is that models and observations are joined to strengthen both. In the end, neither method is the goal, but both are useful tools for disclosing the truth. Biased views on either observational or modeling approaches would limit us from achieving this goal.

The Baltic Sea is a heavily impacted ecosystem with multiple pressures acting simultaneously. In order to quantify ecosystem impacts of integrated climate change and eutrophication pressures under constant high fishing pressure, and to support decision-making and policies in generating environmental and economic sustainable systems, the Baltic Atlantis holistic and mechanistic ecosystem model was applied. The overall aim was to run scenarios of separate and integrated impacts of climate and riverine nutrient load changes, taking into account the interactions of the full food web in the entire Baltic Sea. This was done to identify which of those two pressures will likely dominate the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem, and to test effects of different riverine nutrient forcing sources as well as the Baltic Atlantis functions in relation to hydrographic spawning thresholds. By integrating the hydrography, the biology covering all trophic levels of the food web, and multiple pressures, i. e. eutrophication, climate change and fishery, we were able to evaluate relative impacts of 3 climate scenarios and 3 nutrient load scenarios, using two sources of nutrient forcing and predict likely trends in ecosystem effects. With focus on major fish stocks, our model, with its assumptions, indicated that nutrient loads are the main driver of the changes in the ecosystem as long as the hydrographic thresholds for spawning are not reached. If the thresholds are reached for the Baltic cod, climate change impact will become most important. Furthermore, higher nutrient loads resulted in cod decrease, and increase in sprat and herring. This effect is amplified by stronger climate change. Overall, it is of crucial importance for the future of the Baltic Sea fisheries and stocks that potential impacts are considered both separate and integrated in a dynamic ecosystem-based management approach.

Continental margin sediments receive most of the particulate organic carbon (POC) deposited on the global seafloor, making them crucial locations in the carbon cycle. However, the complex environments in coastal oceans make it challenging to predict the fate of sedimentary organic carbon (OC) in these areas. Here we use data from 21 sites in the Baltic Sea, representing different biological and physiochemical regimes, to explore controls on sedimentary OC cycling. To this end, we combine in situ measured benthic fluxes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC; proxy for OC oxidation) with data on sediment properties. In the Gulf of Bothnia, low sedimentary OC oxidation capacities (yearly DIC flux divided by sedimentary POC inventory) were likely caused by a large fraction of terrestrial material in the POC pool, indicated by low sedimentary chlorophyll a content and high (> 10) carbon:nitrogen ratios. The highest OC oxidation capacities were measured at shallow, permanently oxic sites in the Baltic Proper, where bioturbation likely stimulates OC oxidation. The other sites in the Baltic Proper and all stations in the Gulf of Finland displayed increasing OC oxidation capacities with increasing normalised water depth (station depth divided by maximal depth in the basin). This pattern suggests that substantial quantities of POC are shuttled, through repeated cycles of resuspension-redeposition, from shallow erosion-transport (ET) areas to deep accumulation (A) areas. This interpretation was supported by decreasing sediment age and increasing sedimentary inventories of POC and chlorophyll a with normalised water depth. Our calculations indicate that particle shuttling redistributes almost half of the deposited export production from ET areas to A areas in the Baltic Proper, and that substantial amounts of terrestrial organic material are transported through particle shuttling to the deeper parts of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Bothnia. Depositional setting and POC origin can thus be central factors in predicting the distribution and fate of OC in coastal and shelf sediments.