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  • 1. Guemas, Virginie
    et al.
    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward
    Chevallier, Matthieu
    Day, Jonathan J.
    Deque, Michel
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
    Fuckar, Neven S.
    Germe, Agathe
    Hawkins, Ed
    Keeley, Sarah
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Salas y Melia, David
    Tietsche, Steffen
    A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales2016In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, no 695, p. 546-561Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

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