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  • 1. Orru, Hans
    et al.
    Astrom, Christofer
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Tamm, Tanel
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 074013Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2.
    Langner, Joakim
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Alpfjord Wylde, Helene
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Mapping of phytotoxic ozone dose for birch, spruce, wheat and potato using the MATCH-Sweden system2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We have added calculations of PODY for birch, spruce, wheat and potato to theMATCH-Sweden system. Several important updates compared to the previousimplementation for generic crops and generic deciduous trees have been made includingimproved calculations of canopy level ozone concentrations, updated calculations ofquasi-laminar and surface resistance and inclusion of soil moisture dependence forspecific vegetation species. 

    A comparison to results from the EMEP model for generic crops and generic deciduoustrees shows a better agreement than previously. Considering also that an error in theEMEP calculations has been identified, affecting primarily the PODY calculations forgeneric deciduous trees, MATCH-Sweden and EMEP model results now appear to bemore consistent.Year to year variability of PODY for birch and spruce are similar to that for genericdeciduous trees while numerical values are different, especially for birch, due to differentparameters in the PODY calculation and longer vegetation periods. Critical levelscorresponding to a 4 % growth reduction are exceeded for both birch and spruce in majorparts of Sweden for all years in the period 2013-2017.Year to year variability of PODY for wheat and potato are larger than for generic cropsdue to the higher threshold for PODY used in the calculations. Critical levelscorresponding to a 5 % reduction in crop yield are reached in four of five years insouthern Sweden for wheat and for two in five years for potato.The updated program package for PODY calculations could be used to calculateconsistent time series of PODY for different types of vegetation for the period 1990-2013based on reanalyzed ozone concentrations. The program package could also be developedto calculate PODY for the whole of Europe for different emission- or climate scenarios.The results presented in this report are also available in digital form at the SMHI homepage for environmental monitoring of air quality(www.smhi.se/klimatdata/miljo/atmosfarskemi).

  • 3. Theobald, Mark R.
    et al.
    Vivanco, Marta G.
    Aas, Wenche
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Ciarelli, Giancarlo
    Couvidat, Florian
    Cuvelier, Kees
    Manders, Astrid
    Mircea, Mihaela
    Pay, Maria-Teresa
    Tsyro, Svetlana
    Adani, Mario
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Briganti, Gino
    Cappelletti, Andrea
    D'Isidoro, Massimo
    Fagerli, Hilde
    Mar, Kathleen
    Otero, Noelia
    Raffort, Valentin
    Roustan, Yelva
    Schaap, Martijn
    Wind, Peter
    Colette, Augustin
    An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990-20102019In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 379-405Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Alpfjord Wylde, Helene
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Long-term sulfur and nitrogen deposition in Sweden: 1983-2013 reanalysis2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A unique long-term (1983-2013) dataset of sulfur and nitrogen deposition has been compiled for Sweden as well as the Baltic Sea and surrounding countries, based on quality controlled measurements and modelled fields, fused though advanced methods capturing spatial and temporal variations. The data set can be used for describing trends in deposition to various relevant surface types.Our reanalysis compares well to observations, but we have identified differences in dry deposition to coniferous forest. This calls for more in-depth studies of the dry deposition and improvements to the respective methods.We recommend more advanced methods of describing spatial variation than averaging or spatial interpolation of observed deposition.We estimate a significant decrease from the 1980s until today for both sulfur and nitrogen deposition (by ca. 80% and 30% respectively).Critical loads for coniferous and deciduous forests, mountain vegetation and wetlands have been surpassed mainly in the southwest Sweden, but also in southeast Sweden and the southern parts of Scandes Mountains. The situation is improving, but exceedances do still occur also in larger regions.

  • 5. Otero, Noelia
    et al.
    Sillmann, Jana
    Mar, Kathleen A.
    Rust, Henning W.
    Solberg, Sverre
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Colette, Augustin
    Couvidat, Florian
    Cuvelier, Cournelius
    Tsyro, Svetlana
    Fagerli, Hilde
    Schaap, Martijn
    Manders, Astrid
    Mircea, Mihaela
    Briganti, Gino
    Cappelletti, Andrea
    Adani, Mario
    D'Isidoro, Massimo
    Pay, Maria-Teresa
    Theobald, Mark
    Vivanco, Marta G.
    Wind, Peter
    Ojha, Narendra
    Raffort, Valentin
    Butler, Tim
    A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe2018In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 18, no 16, p. 12269-12288Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6. Vivanco, Marta G.
    et al.
    Theobald, Mark R.
    Garcia-Gomez, Hector
    Luis Garrido, Juan
    Prank, Marje
    Aas, Wenche
    Adani, Mario
    Alyuz, Ummugulsum
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bellasio, Roberto
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Bianconi, Roberto
    Bieser, Johannes
    Brandt, Jurgen
    Briganti, Gino
    Cappelletti, Andrea
    Curci, Gabriele
    Christensen, Jesper H.
    Colette, Augustin
    Couvidat, Florian
    Cuvelier, Cornelis
    D'Isidoro, Massimo
    Flemming, Johannes
    Fraser, Andrea
    Geels, Camilla
    Hansen, Kaj M.
    Hogrefe, Christian
    Im, Ulas
    Jorba, Oriol
    Kitwiroon, Nutthida
    Manders, Astrid
    Mircea, Mihaela
    Otero, Noelia
    Pay, Maria-Teresa
    Pozzoli, Luca
    Solazzo, Efisio
    Tsyro, Svetlana
    Unal, Alper
    Wind, Peter
    Galmarini, Stefano
    Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection2018In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 18, no 14, p. 10199-10218Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7. Colette, Augustin
    et al.
    Schucht, Simone
    Ciarelli, Giancarlo
    Létinois, Laurent
    Meleux, Frédérik
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Cuvelier, C.
    Manders, A.
    Mar, K.A.
    Mircea, M.
    Pay, T.
    Raffort, V.
    Tsyro, S.
    Adani, M.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bessagnet, G
    Briganti, A.
    Cappelletti, A.
    Couvidat, F.
    D'Isidoro, M.
    Fagerli, H.
    Ojha, N.
    Otero, N.
    Wind, P.
    Long-term air quality trends in Europe Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Health Impacts.2018Report (Other academic)
  • 8.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Alpfjord, Helene
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Robertson, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Karlsson, Per Erik
    Miljöforskningsinstitutet.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990-20132017In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 17, no 22Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9. Colette, Augustin
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Manders, Astrid
    Mar, Kathleen
    Mircea, Mihaela
    Pay, Maria-Teresa
    Raffort, Valentin
    Tsyro, Svetlana
    Cuvelier, Cornelius
    Adani, Mario
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Briganti, Gino
    Butler, Tim
    Cappelletti, Andrea
    Couvidat, Florian
    D'Isidoro, Massimo
    Doumbia, Thierno
    Fagerli, Hilde
    Granier, Claire
    Heyes, Chris
    Klimont, Zig
    Ojha, Narendra
    Otero, Noelia
    Schaap, Martijn
    Sindelarova, Katarina
    Stegehuis, Annemiek I.
    Roustan, Yelva
    Vautard, Robert
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Vivanco, Marta Garcia
    Wind, Peter
    EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990-20102017In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 10, no 9, p. 3255-3276Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10. Astrom, Christofer
    et al.
    Astrom, Daniel Oudin
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants2017In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 741Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11. Lacressonniere, Gwendoline
    et al.
    Watson, Laura
    Gauss, Michael
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Beekmann, Matthias
    Colette, Augustin
    Foret, Gilles
    Josse, Beatrice
    Marecal, Virginie
    Nyiri, Agnes
    Siour, Guillaume
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Vautard, Robert
    Particulate matter air pollution in Europe in a+2 degrees C warming world2017In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 154, p. 129-140Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12. Karlsson, Per Erik
    et al.
    Klingberg, Jenny
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl
    Pleijel, Hakan
    Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe2017In: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, ISSN 0048-9697, Vol. 576, p. 22-35Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13. Soares, Joana
    et al.
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Geels, Camilla
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Tsyro, Svetlana
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Impact of climate change on the production and transport of sea salt aerosol on European seas2016In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 16, no 20, p. 13081-13104Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Alpfjord, Helene
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    PODY-beräkningar med MATCH Sverigesystemet2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We have developed a set of programs that enable PODY calculations in the air quality surveillance system MATCH Sverigesystemet. This report gives a brief overview of PODY calculations in general and the MATCH implementation in particular.

    We present results for the receptors generic crops (POD3gen-CR) and generic deciduous trees (POD1gen-DT) for the years 2013-2015 and contrast these with corresponding data from the EMEP-model. The POD3gen-CR values calculated by MATCH feature large inter-annual variations and are significantly higher than the corresponding assessment by the EMEP-model. POD1gen-DT show smaller inter-annual variation and the MATCH and the EMEP-model results correspond better.

    PODY is presented together with other ozone metrics on the SMHI environmental mapping web page (www.smhi.se/klimatdata/miljo/atmosfarskemi) starting from the mapping year 2013.

  • 15. Watson, Laura
    et al.
    Lacressonniere, Gwendoline
    Gauss, Michael
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Josse, Beatrice
    Marecal, Virginie
    Nyiri, Agnes
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Siour, Guillaume
    Szopa, Sophie
    Vautard, Robert
    Impact of emissions and+2 degrees C climate change upon future ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe2016In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 142, p. 271-285Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16. Lacressonniere, Gwendoline
    et al.
    Foret, Gilles
    Beekmann, Matthias
    Siour, Guillaume
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Gauss, Michael
    Watson, Laura
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Colette, Augustin
    Josse, Beatrice
    Marecal, Virginie
    Nyiri, Agnes
    Vautard, Robert
    Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 136, no 2, p. 309-324Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 17. Markakis, Konstantinos
    et al.
    Valari, Myrto
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Lacressonniere, Gwendoline
    Vautard, Robert
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions - case studies for Paris and Stockholm2016In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 16, no 4, p. 1877-1894Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modelled at 4 and 1 km horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine-resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional-scale emission projections by comparing modelled pollutant concentrations between the fine-and coarse-scale simulations over the study areas. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g. the city of Stockholm) the bias related to coarse-scale projections may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modelling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily mean and maximum) is up to 5% for Paris and 2% for Stockholm city. The climate benefit on PM2.5 and PM10 in Paris is between 5 and 10 %, while for Stockholm we estimate mixed trends of up to 3% depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15% for daily mean and maximum ozone and 20% for PM. Through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NO x emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily mean ozone by 2.5% in Paris. Climate and not emission change appears to be the most influential factor for maximum ozone concentration over the city of Paris, which may be particularly interesting from a health impact perspective.

  • 18. Watson, Laura
    et al.
    Lacressonniere, Gwendoline
    Gauss, Michael
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Josse, Beatrice
    Marecal, Virginie
    Nyiri, Agnes
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Siour, Guillaume
    Vautard, Robert
    The impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe2015In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 119, p. 240-257Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants (ozone and nitrogen dioxide) over Europe was studied using four offline chemistry transport models (CTMs) as part of the IMPACT2C project. This study uses long (20- and 30-year) simulations to evaluate the present-day performance of the CTMs, which is a necessary first step before undertaking any analysis of future air quality impacts. Two sets of meteorological forcings were used for each model: reanalysis of past observation data (ERA-Interim) and Global Climate Model (GCM) output. The results for the simulations forced by reanalysis data were assessed in relation to AirBase v7 measurement data, and it was determined that all four models slightly overpredict annual O-3 values (mean biases range between 0.7 and 6.6 ppb) and three out of the four models underpredict observed annual NO2 (mean biases range between -3.1 and -5.2 ppb). The simulations forced by climate models result in spatially averaged monthly concentrations of O-3 that are generally between 0 and 5 ppb higher than the values obtained from simulations forced by reanalysis data; therefore it was concluded that the use of climate models introduces an additional bias to the results, but this bias tends not to be significant in the majority of cases. The bias in O-3 results appears to be correlated mainly to differences in temperature and boundary layer height between the two types of simulations, whereas the less significant bias in NO2 is negatively correlated to temperature and boundary layer height. It is also clear that the selection of chemical boundary conditions is an important factor in determining the variability of O-3 model results. These results will be used as a baseline for the interpretation of future work, which will include an analysis of future climate scenarios upon European air quality. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 19.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bennet, Cecilia
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Robertson, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Thomas, Manu
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Korhonen, H.
    Lehtinen, K. E. J.
    Kokkola, H.
    MATCH-SALSA - Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model - Part 1: Model description and evaluation2015In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, no 2, p. 171-189Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We have implemented the sectional aerosol dynamics model SALSA (Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications) in the European-scale chemistry-transport model MATCH (Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry). The new model is called MATCH-SALSA. It includes aerosol microphysics, with several formulations for nucleation, wet scavenging and condensation. The model reproduces observed higher particle number concentration (PNC) in central Europe and lower concentrations in remote regions. The modeled PNC size distribution peak occurs at the same or smaller particle size as the observed peak at four measurement sites spread across Europe. Total PNC is underestimated at northern and central European sites and accumulation-mode PNC is underestimated at all investigated sites. The low nucleation rate coefficient used in this study is an important reason for the underestimation. On the other hand, the model performs well for particle mass (including secondary inorganic aerosol components), while elemental and organic carbon concentrations are underestimated at many of the sites. Further development is needed, primarily for treatment of secondary organic aerosol, in terms of biogenic emissions and chemical transformation. Updating the biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme will likely have a large impact on modeled PM2.5 and also affect the model performance for PNC through impacts on nucleation and condensation.

  • 20.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Kahnert, Michael
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Kokkola, H.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Integration of prognostic aerosol-cloud interactions in a chemistry transport model coupled offline to a regional climate model2015In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, no 6, p. 1885-1898Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To reduce uncertainties and hence to obtain a better estimate of aerosol (direct and indirect) radiative forcing, next generation climate models aim for a tighter coupling between chemistry transport models and regional climate models and a better representation of aerosol-cloud interactions. In this study, this coupling is done by first forcing the Rossby Center regional climate model (RCA4) with ERA-Interim lateral boundaries and sea surface temperature (SST) using the standard cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) formulation (hereafter, referred to as the 'stand-alone RCA4 version' or 'CTRL' simulation). In the stand-alone RCA4 version, CDNCs are constants distinguishing only between land and ocean surface. The meteorology from this simulation is then used to drive the chemistry transport model, Multiple-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), which is coupled online with the aerosol dynamics model, Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications (SALSA). CDNC fields obtained from MATCH-SALSA are then fed back into a new RCA4 simulation. In this new simulation (referred to as 'MOD' simulation), all parameters remain the same as in the first run except for the CDNCs provided by MATCH-SALSA. Simulations are carried out with this model setup for the period 2005-2012 over Europe, and the differences in cloud microphysical properties and radiative fluxes as a result of local CDNC changes and possible model responses are analysed. Our study shows substantial improvements in cloud microphysical properties with the input of the MATCH-SALSA derived 3-D CDNCs compared to the stand-alone RCA4 version. This model setup improves the spatial, seasonal and vertical distribution of CDNCs with a higher concentration observed over central Europe during boreal summer (JJA) and over eastern Europe and Russia during winter (DJF). Realistic cloud droplet radii (CD radii) values have been simulated with the maxima reaching 13 mu m, whereas in the stand-alone version the values reached only 5 mu m. A substantial improvement in the distribution of the cloud liquid-water paths (CLWP) was observed when compared to the satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the boreal summer months. The median and standard deviation values from the 'MOD' simulation are closer to observations than those obtained using the stand-alone RCA4 version. These changes resulted in a significant decrease in the total annual mean net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by -5 W m(-2) over the domain selected in the study. The TOA net fluxes from the 'MOD' simulation show a better agreement with the retrievals from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. The aerosol indirect effects are estimated in the 'MOD' simulation in comparison to the pre-industrial aerosol emissions (1900). Our simulations estimated the domain averaged annual mean total radiative forcing of -0.64 W m(-2) with a larger contribution from the first indirect aerosol effect (-0.57 W m(-2)) than from the second indirect aerosol effect (-0.14 W m(-2)).

  • 21. Geels, Camilla
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Hanninen, Otto
    Lanso, Anne Sofie
    Schwarze, Per E.
    Skjoth, Carsten Ambelas
    Brandt, Jorgen
    Future Premature Mortality Due to O-3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe - Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock2015In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 12, no 3, p. 2837-2869Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

  • 22. Colette, Augustin
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Baklanov, Alexander
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Brandt, Jorgen
    Christensen, Jesper H.
    Doherty, Ruth
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Geels, Camilla
    Giannakopoulos, Christos
    Hedegaard, Gitte B.
    Katragkou, Eleni
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Lei, Hang
    Manders, Astrid
    Melas, Dimitris
    Meleux, Frederik
    Rouil, Laurence
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Soares, Joana
    Stevenson, David S.
    Tombrou-Tzella, Maria
    Varotsos, Konstantinos V.
    Young, Paul
    Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?2015In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, no 8, article id 084015Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.

  • 23. Marecal, V.
    et al.
    Peuch, V. -H
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, S.
    Arteta, J.
    Beekmann, M.
    Benedictow, A.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bessagnet, B.
    Cansado, A.
    Cheroux, F.
    Colette, A.
    Coman, A.
    Curier, R. L.
    van der Gon, H. A. C. Denier
    Drouin, A.
    Elbern, H.
    Emili, E.
    Engelen, R. J.
    Eskes, H. J.
    Foret, G.
    Friese, E.
    Gauss, M.
    Giannaros, C.
    Guth, J.
    Joly, M.
    Jaumouille, E.
    Josse, B.
    Kadygrov, N.
    Kaiser, J. W.
    Krajsek, K.
    Kuenen, J.
    Kumar, U.
    Liora, N.
    Lopez, E.
    Malherbe, L.
    Martinez, I.
    Melas, D.
    Meleux, F.
    Menut, L.
    Moinat, P.
    Morales, T.
    Parmentier, J.
    Piacentini, A.
    Plu, M.
    Poupkou, A.
    Queguiner, S.
    Robertson, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Rouil, L.
    Schaap, M.
    Segers, A.
    Sofiev, M.
    Tarasson, L.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Timmermans, R.
    Valdebenito, A.
    van Velthoven, P.
    van Versendaal, R.
    Vira, J.
    Ung, A.
    A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production2015In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, no 9, p. 2777-2813Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACCII (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O-3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN + PAN precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10. The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models. During summer 2014, the diurnal ozone maximum is underestimated by the ensemble median by about 4 mu g m(-3) on average. Locally, during the studied ozone episodes, the maxima from the ensemble median are often lower than observations by 30-50 mu g m(-3). Overall, ozone scores are generally good with average values for the normalised indicators of 0.14 for the modified normalised mean bias and of 0.30 for the fractional gross error. Tests have also shown that the ensemble median is robust to reduction of ensemble size by one, that is, if predictions are unavailable from one model. Scores are also discussed for PM10 for winter 2013-1014. There is an underestimation of most models leading the ensemble median to a mean bias of 4.5 mu g m(-3). The ensemble median fractional gross error is larger for PM10 (similar to 0.52) than for ozone and the correlation is lower (similar to 0.35 for PM10 and similar to 0.54 for ozone). This is related to a larger spread of the seven model scores for PM10 than for ozone linked to different levels of complexity of aerosol representation in the individual models. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.

  • 24. Simpson, D.
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Christensen, J. H.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Geels, C.
    Nyiri, A.
    Posch, M.
    Soares, J.
    Sofiev, M.
    Wind, P.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study2014In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 14, no 13, p. 6995-7017Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000-2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulfur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemisphericscale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N compounds. One model (EMEP) was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems that exceeds critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase).

  • 25.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bennet, Cecilia
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Thomas, Manu
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Robertson, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Kokkola, Harri
    FMI.
    Lehtinen, Kari
    FMI.
    MATCH-SALSA: Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents a new aerosol dynamics version of a European scale Eulerian CTM, MATCH. The new model is called MATCH-SALSA, and includes aerosol microphysics and several options for nucleation, wet scavenging and condensation. The report entails model description, evaluation and sensitivity tests.The new model reproduces observed higher particle number concentration (PNC) in central Europe and lower in remote regions. The model peak PNC occurs at the same particle size as the observed peak or at smaller sizes, which indicate missing growth. Total PNC is underestimated at some sites. The model performs well for particle mass, including SIA components. EC and OC are underestimated at many of the sites.The results are sensitive to the fraction of SOx emitted as H2SO4 and the optimum choice is site dependent. The model results are highly sensitive to whether organic nucleation is included or not. The model results are sensitive to amount of organic vapors in the condensation. The model can be used in applications knowing the restrictions of what the model manages well and what needs further improvements, which is detailed in the report.

  • 26. Orru, Hans
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Astrom, Christofer
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe2013In: European Respiratory Journal, ISSN 0903-1936, E-ISSN 1399-3003, Vol. 41, no 2, p. 285-294Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50 x 50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.

  • 27. Jonsson, Oskar
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Johansson, Christer
    Air pollution episodes in Stockholm regional background air due to sources in Europe and their effects on human population2013In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 18, no 3-4, p. 280-302Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using air quality measurements, we categorized air pollution according to source sectors in a rural background environment in southern Sweden based on hourly air-mass backward trajectories during 1997-2010. Concentrations of fine (PM2.5) and sum of fine and coarse particulate matter (PM10), accumulation mode particle number, black carbon and surface ozone were 4.0, 3.9, 4.5, 6.8 and 1.3 times higher, respectively, in air masses from the southeast as compared with those in air masses from the cleanest sector in the northwest, consistent with air-mass transport over areas with relatively high emissions of primary particulate matter (PM) and secondary PM precursors. The highest ultrafine particle numbers were associated with clean air from the northwest. We estimate that almost 7.8% and 0.6% higher premature human mortality is caused by PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively, when air originates from the southeast as compared with that when air originates from the northwest. Reductions of emissions in eastern Europe would reduce the highest air pollution concentrations and associated health risks. However, since air masses from the southwest are more frequent, emissions in the western part of Europe are more important for annual mean premature mortality.

  • 28.
    Langner, Joakim
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    European summer surface ozone 1990-21002012In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 12, no 21, p. 10097-10105Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emission on summer surface ozone in Europe was studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April-September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O-3 and reduced European emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations. The European O-3 precursor emission reductions in RCP4.5 are substantial and it remains to be seen if these reductions can be achieved. There is substantial decadal variability in the simulations forced by climate variability which is important to consider when looking at changes in surface O-3 concentrations, especially until the first half of the 21st century. In order to account for changes in background O-3 future regional model studies should couple global (hemispheric) and regional CTMs forced by a consistent set of meteorological and precursor emission data.

  • 29.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Modellering av marknära ozon: Regionala och högupplösta tillämpningar av MATCH2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    High concentrations of near-surface ozone in Sweden occur predominantly during spring and summer in the Southwestern part of the country. SMHI’s regional dispersion model, MATCH, complies with the Air Quality Directive on model quality for ozone in the background air of Sweden. This applies both to a European scale application with 44×44 km2 grid squares as well as a highresolution application with 5×5 km2 grid squares. High-resolution modelling marginally improves the statistical scores that describe model quality. Local contribution to ozone exceedances (in suburbs) is probably not a problem in Sweden .Although the MATCH model meets the Air Quality Directive’s demands on model quality does it occasionally miss the episodes with the highest concentrations. This is a severe shortcoming in the modelling system. More accurate information about the emissions of ozone producing substances, in particular in Eastern Europe, and improvements in the model’s description of vertical mixing and deposition is probably needed to improve the model. Two-dimensional variational data analysis could be a tool to achieve a more accurate geographical coverage of ozone-fields in Sweden. This applies, in particular, for AOT40 and number of days exceeding a threshold. MATCH results, including two-dimensional variational data analysis, can be used in combination with measurements to monitor near-surface ozone in Sweden.

  • 30.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Stefan
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Segersson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Halter och deposition av luftföroreningar: Förändring över Sverige från 2010 till 2020 i bidrag från Sverige, Europa och Internationell Sjöfart2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna studie presenteras nutid (2010) och förändring till framtid (2020) för ett emissionsscenario baserat på PRIMES energimodell och IMO-beslut för internationell sjöfart. Utifrån dessa uppskattningar har modellberäkningar gjorts över nutid och förändring till 2020 för deposition av kväve och svavel, samt för lufthalter av sekundära inorganiska aerosoler (SIA; partiklar) och marknära ozon. Bidrag och förändring i detta bidrag till 2020 har presenterats för internationell sjöfart. Även Sveriges och övriga Europas bidrag till deposition i nutid och förändring till framtid har presenterats.Huvudresultaten i studien är:- Landbaserade utsläpp av svaveldioxid, kväveoxider, partiklar, kolmonoxid och volatila organiska ämnen förväntas minska i Europa såväl som i Sverige, medan utsläppen av ammoniak förväntas öka till 2020 i Europa.- Internationell sjöfart förväntas minska sina utsläpp av svaveldioxid på grund av IMO-beslut, men förväntad ökning i trafiken medför ökade utsläpp av NOx.- Såväl deposition som lufthalter fortsätter vara högst i södra Sverige.- Utsläppsminskningarna till 2020 medför minskat nedfall av svavel och kväve i Sverige.- Bidraget till kvävedeposition från internationell sjöfart ökar i hela landet till 2020, övriga bidrag minskar.- Luftkvaliteten i regional bakgrundsluft i Sverige förbättras för såväl marknära ozon som för SIA.- De högsta halterna av marknära ozon beräknas minska som en följd av utsläppsminskningar i Europa.

  • 31.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions2010In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 115, article id D02303Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Projections of future surface ozone over Europe conducted utilizing chemistry transport models (CTMs) coupled to climate models differ greatly, even in sign. CTM sensitivity studies were conducted in order to investigate the importance of changes in natural isoprene emissions and dry deposition to vegetation, both coupled to meteorology. This knowledge can be used to improve surface ozone projections. Our simulations suggest climate change over Europe would cause changes in surface ozone between -4.0 to +13 ppb(v) on average (April-September) and -3.5 to +25 ppb(v) on average (April-September) daily maximum from 1961 - 1990 to 2071 - 2100. The change is positive in the southwest and negative in the north. The isoprene emissions increased by a factor of about 1.8 from 1961 - 1990 to 2071 - 2100. A rescaling of isoprene emissions shows that the large increase in isoprene emission is of importance (0 - 30% of the change in surface ozone) in central, southern, and western Europe. The use of a formulation for ozone dry deposition to vegetation, dependent on meteorology, and changes in snow cover, affecting the dry deposition, are more important processes. The changes in dry deposition to vegetation (not including changes in aerodynamic resistance) explain up to 80% of the surface ozone change in Spain. Therefore it is vital to include meteorological dependence for dry deposition of ozone to vegetation in surface ozone projections. Isoprene emissions are of less importance, but they are nonnegligible and should definitely be emitted online in climate ozone projection studies.

  • 32.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Climate and Emission Changes Contributing to Changes in Near-surface Ozone in Europe over the Coming Decades: Results from Model Studies2009In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 38, no 8, p. 452-458Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We used an off-line, regional, model of atmospheric transport and chemistry to investigate current and future levels of near-surface ozone and accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(v) (AOT40) in Europe. To describe the current situation and enable an evaluation of the model's performance we simulated a number of years around 2000. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to possible emission changes in Europe, the model was run with the meteorology of the early 2000s and precursor emissions from a set of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) emissions scenarios. By extrapolation of the observed increase in near-surface O(3) at coastal locations in northwest Europe we constructed model boundaries that were used to simulate the impact of increasing hemispheric background in 2020. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to climate change, the model was run with recent (2000) emissions but using meteorology from a regional climate model simulating a control (1961-1990) and a future (2021-2050) climate. The results indicate that climate change will have a small impact on ozone concentrations and AOT40 in the Nordic countries. Changes in hemispheric background concentrations and changes in precursor emissions in Europe will have a larger effect on ozone in Northern Europe. The situation is quite different in southern Europe, where climate change is expected to result in a very large increase in near-surface ozone concentrations.

  • 33.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Johansson, Christer
    Population exposure and mortality due to regional background PM in Europe - Long-term simulations of source region and shipping contributions2009In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 43, no 22-23, p. 3614-3620Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents the contribution to population exposure (PE) of regional background fine primary (PPM(2.5)) and secondary inorganic (SIA) particulate matter and its impact on mortality in Europe during 1997-2003 calculated with a chemistry transport model. Contributions to concentrations and PE due to emissions from shipping, Western (WEU), Eastern (EEU), and Northern Europe are compared. WEU contributes about 40% to both PPM(2.5) and SIA concentrations, whereas the EEU contribution to PPM(2.5) is much higher (43% of total PPM(2.5)) than to SIA (29% of total SIA). The population weighted average concentration (PWC) of PPM(2.5) is a factor of 2.3 higher than average (non-weighted) concentrations, whereas for SIA the PWC is only a factor 1.6 higher. This is due to PPM(2.5) concentrations having larger gradients and being relatively high over densely populated areas, whereas SIA is formed outside populated areas. WEU emissions contribute relatively more than EEU to PWC and mortality due to both PPM(2.5) and SIA in Europe. The number of premature deaths in Europe is estimated to 301000 per year due to PPM(2.5) exposure and 245 000 due to SIA, despite 3.3 times higher average SIA concentrations. This is due to population weighting and assumed (and uncertain) higher relative risk of mortality for PPM(2.5) components (2.8 times higher RR for PPM(2.5)). This study indicates that it might be more efficient, for the health of the European population, to decrease primary PM emissions (especially in WEU) than to decrease precursors of SIA, but more knowledge on the toxicity of different PM constituents is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 34.
    Langner, Joakim
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change2009In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 226-237Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present estimates of the present and future deposition of atmospheric nitrogen into the Baltic Sea made using the Eulerian chemical transport model MATCH, and compare these with earlier model estimates. The average total nitrogen deposition for periods of five to ten years from 1992 to 2001 was estimated to be in the range of 261-300 Gg N yr(-1). The deposition across the whole catchment area for 2001 was estimated to be 1.55-1.73 Tg N yr(-1). Inter-annual variability of nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea was calculated to be in the range of 5.1%-8.0%. Investigating one climate change scenario using emissions for year 2000 indicated a rather small impact on total deposition of nitrogen due to climate change, i.e. increase of total nitrogen deposition by similar to 5% by the end of the 21st century as compared with present conditions. The combined effect of climate change and future changes in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen to the atmosphere remains an open question. Additional climate change scenarios using different combinations of global and regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios need to be explored.

  • 35.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958-2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis2007In: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology, ISSN 0280-6509, E-ISSN 1600-0889, Vol. 59, no 1, p. 77-98Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A three-dimensional Chemistry Transport Model was used to study the meteorologically induced interannual variability and trends in deposition of sulphur and nitrogen as well as concentrations of surface ozone (O(3)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and particulate matter (PM) and its constituents over Europe during 1958-2001. The model was coupled to the meteorological reanalysis ERA40, produced at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Emissions and boundary conditions of chemical compounds and PM were kept constant at present levels. The average European interannual variation, due to meteorological variability, ranges from 3% for O(3), 5% for NO(2), 9% for PM, 6-9% for dry deposition, to about 20% for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. For the period 1979-2001 the trend in ozone, due to climate variability is increasing in central and southwestern Europe and decreasing in northeastern Europe, the trend in NO(2) is approximately opposite. The trend in PM is positive in eastern Europe. There are negative trends in wet deposition in southwestern and central Europe and positive trends in dry deposition overall. A bias in ERA40 precipitation could be partly responsible for the trends. The variation and trends need to be considered when interpreting measurements and designing measurement campaigns.

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