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  • 81.
    Andersson, Jafet
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Combine and Share Essential Knowledge for Sustainable Water Management2016Ingår i: Solutions Journal, ISSN 2154-0896, E-ISSN 2154-0926, Vol. 7, nr 3Artikel i tidskrift (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 82. Emerton, Rebecca E.
    et al.
    Stephens, Elisabeth M.
    Pappenberger, Florian
    Pagano, Thomas C.
    Weerts, Albrecht H.
    Wood, Andy W.
    Salamon, Peter
    Brown, James D.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Baugh, Calum A.
    Cloke, Hannah L.
    Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems2016Ingår i: WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-WATER, Vol. 3, nr 3, s. 391-418Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centers are increasingly using their meteorological output to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data, and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large-scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large-scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Operational systems currently have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction. (C) 2016 The Authors. WIREs Water published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  • 83.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Norin, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Creation of a high resolution precipitation data set by merging gridded gauge data and radar observations for Sweden2016Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 541, s. 6-13Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 84. Zhang, Linus
    et al.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Editorial: 'The Nordic Hydrology Model' - Linking science and practice2016Ingår i: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 47, nr 4, s. 671-671Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 85. Aich, Valentin
    et al.
    Liersch, Stefan
    Vetter, Tobias
    Fournet, Samuel
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Calmanti, Sandro
    van Weert, Frank H. A.
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Paton, Eva N.
    Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change2016Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 562, s. 666-677Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 86.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Borris, Matthias
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Foster, Kean
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Persson, Magnus
    SMHI.
    Perttu, Anna-Maria
    Uvo, Cintia B.
    Viklander, Maria
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden2016Ingår i: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4, nr 3, artikel-id 39Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 87.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Borris, Matthias
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Foster, Kean
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Persson, Magnus
    Perttu, Anna-Maria
    Uvo, Cintia B.
    Viklander, Maria
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Recent Progress and Current Issues.2016Ingår i: Climate, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4(3), nr 39Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 88. Moseley, Christopher
    et al.
    Hohenegger, Cathy
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Haerter, Jan O.
    Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud-cloud interaction2016Ingår i: Nature Geoscience, ISSN 1752-0894, E-ISSN 1752-0908, Vol. 9, nr 10, s. 748-+Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 89.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Sunyer, Maria A.
    Lawrence, Deborah
    Madsen, Henrik
    Willems, Patrick
    Buerger, Gerd
    Kriauciuniene, Jurate
    Loukas, Athanasios
    Martinkova, Marta
    Osuch, Marzena
    Vasiliades, Lampros
    von Christierson, Birgitte
    Vormoor, Klaus
    Yuecel, Ismail
    Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe2016Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 541, s. 1273-1286Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 90.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lake water levels for calibration of the S-HYPE model2016Ingår i: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 47, nr 4, s. 672-682Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 91.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lessons learned? Effects of nutrient reductions from constructing wetlands in 1996–2006 across Sweden2016Ingår i: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, s. 1-11Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 92.
    Temnerud, Johan
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    von Bromssen, C.
    Folster, J.
    Buffam, I.
    Andersson, J. -O
    Nyberg, Leif
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen.
    Bishop, K.
    Map-based prediction of organic carbon in headwater streams improved by downstream observations from the river outlet2016Ingår i: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 13, nr 2, s. 399-413Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In spite of the great abundance and ecological importance of headwater streams, managers are usually limited by a lack of information about water chemistry in these headwaters. In this study we test whether river outlet chemistry can be used as an additional source of information to improve the prediction of the chemistry of upstream headwaters (size < 2 km(2)), relative to models based on map information alone. We use the concentration of total organic carbon (TOC), an important stream ecosystem parameter, as the target for our study. Between 2000 and 2008, we carried out 17 synoptic surveys in 9 mesoscale catchments (size 32-235 km(2)). Over 900 water samples were collected in total, primarily from headwater streams but also including each catchment's river outlet during every survey. First we used partial least square regression (PLS) to model the distribution (median, interquartile range (IQR)) of headwater stream TOC for a given catchment, based on a large number of candidate variables including sub-catchment characteristics from GIS, and measured river chemistry at the catchment outlet. The best candidate variables from the PLS models were then used in hierarchical linear mixed models (MM) to model TOC in individual headwater streams. Three predictor variables were consistently selected for the MM calibration sets: (1) proportion of forested wetlands in the sub-catchment (positively correlated with headwater stream TOC), (2) proportion of lake surface cover in the sub-catchment (negatively correlated with headwater stream TOC), and (3) river outlet TOC (positively correlated with headwater stream TOC). Including river outlet TOC improved predictions, with 5-15% lower prediction errors than when using map information alone. Thus, data on water chemistry measured at river outlets offer information which can complement GIS-based modelling of headwater stream chemistry.

  • 93.
    Pers, Charlotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Temnerud, Johan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Modelling water, nutrients, and organic carbon in forested catchments: a HYPE application2016Ingår i: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 30, nr 18, s. 3252-3273Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 94. Hutton, Christopher
    et al.
    Wagener, Thorsten
    Freer, Jim
    Han, Dawei
    Duffy, Chris
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Most computational hydrology is not reproducible, so is it really science?2016Ingår i: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 52, nr 10, s. 7548-7555Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 95. Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.
    et al.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Sharma, Devesh
    Sharma, K. C.
    Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent2016Ingår i: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 8, nr 5, artikel-id 177Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Indian subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the Distribution-Based Scaling (DBS) method and used to force the HYPE hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. We also assess the changes in the annual cycles in three major rivers located in different hydro-climatic regions. Results show that conclusions can be influenced by uncertainty in the RCP scenarios. Future scenarios project a gradual increase in temperature (up to 7 degrees C on average), whilst changes (both increase and decrease) in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration are more severe at the end of the century. The potential change (increase and decrease) in runoff could reach 100% depending on the region and time horizon. Analysis of annual cycles for three selected regions showed that changes in discharge and evapotranspiration due to climate change vary between seasons, whereas the magnitude of change is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Irrigation needs and the snow depth in the Himalayas are also affected.

  • 96. Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.
    et al.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Sharma, Devesh
    Sharma, K. C.
    Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent2016Ingår i: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 8, nr 5, s. 177-177Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Indian subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the Distribution-Based Scaling (DBS) method and used to force the HYPE hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. We also assess the changes in the annual cycles in three major rivers located in different hydro-climatic regions. Results show that conclusions can be influenced by uncertainty in the RCP scenarios. Future scenarios project a gradual increase in temperature (up to 7 degrees C on average), whilst changes (both increase and decrease) in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration are more severe at the end of the century. The potential change (increase and decrease) in runoff could reach 100% depending on the region and time horizon. Analysis of annual cycles for three selected regions showed that changes in discharge and evapotranspiration due to climate change vary between seasons, whereas the magnitude of change is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Irrigation needs and the snow depth in the Himalayas are also affected.

  • 97.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    On the effects of constraining atmospheric circulation in a coupled atmosphere-ocean Arctic regional climate model2016Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, nr 11-12, s. 3499-3515Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 98. Roudier, Philippe
    et al.
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Feyen, Luc
    Greuell, Wouter
    Ludwig, Fulco
    Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a+2 degrees C global warming2016Ingår i: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 135, nr 2, s. 341-355Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 99. Aggarwal, Pradeep K.
    et al.
    Romatschke, Ulrike
    Araguas-Araguas, Luis
    Belachew, Dagnachew
    Longstaffe, Frederick J.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Schumacher, Courtney
    Funk, Aaron
    Proportions of convective and stratiform precipitation revealed in water isotope ratios2016Ingår i: Nature Geoscience, ISSN 1752-0894, E-ISSN 1752-0908, Vol. 9, nr 8, s. 624-+Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 100.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Jackson, Bethanna
    Mcmillan, Hilary
    Gupta, Hoshin V.
    Robust informational entropy-based descriptors of flow in catchment hydrology2016Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, nr 1, s. 1-18Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the use of entropy-based measures in catchment hydrology, and provides an importance-weighted numerical descriptor of the flow-duration curve. Although entropy theory is being applied in a wide spectrum of areas (including environmental and water resources), artefacts arising from the discrete, under-sampled and uncertain nature of hydrological data are rarely acknowledged, and have not been adequately explored. Here, we examine challenges to extracting hydrologically meaningful entropy measures from a flow signal; the effect of binning resolution on calculation of entropy is investigated, along with artefacts caused by (1) emphasis of information theoretic measures towards flow ranges having more data (statistically dominant information), and (2) effects of discharge measurement truncation errors. We introduce an importance-weighted entropy-based measure to counter the tendency of common binning approaches to over-emphasise information contained in the low flows which dominate the record. The measure uses a novel binning method, and overcomes artefacts due to data resolution and under-sampling. Our analysis reveals a fundamental problem with the extraction of information at high flows, due to the lack of statistically significant samples in this range. By separating the flow-duration curve into segments, our approach constrains the computed entropy to better respect distributional properties over the data range. When used as an objective function for model calibration, this approach constrains high flow predictions, as well as the commonly used Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, but provides much better predictions of low flow behaviour.

2345678 81 - 100 av 332
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