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  • 81. Kupiszewski, P.
    et al.
    Leck, C.
    Tjernstrom, M.
    Sjogren, S.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Graus, M.
    Mueller, M.
    Brooks, B.
    Swietlicki, E.
    Norris, S.
    Hansel, A.
    Vertical profiling of aerosol particles and trace gases over the central Arctic Ocean during summer2013Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 13, nr 24, s. 12405-12431Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Unique measurements of vertical size-resolved aerosol particle concentrations, trace gas concentrations and meteorological data were obtained during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS, www.ascos.se), an International Polar Year project aimed at establishing the processes responsible for formation and evolution of low-level clouds over the high Arctic summer pack ice. The experiment was conducted from on board the Swedish icebreaker Oden, and provided both ship-and helicopter-based measurements. This study focuses on the vertical helicopter profiles and onboard measurements obtained during a three-week period when Oden was anchored to a drifting ice floe, and sheds light on the characteristics of Arctic aerosol particles and their distribution throughout the lower atmosphere. Distinct differences in aerosol particle characteristics within defined atmospheric layers are identified. Within the lowermost couple hundred metres, transport from the marginal ice zone (MIZ), condensational growth and cloud processing develop the aerosol population. During two of the four representative periods defined in this study, such influence is shown. At altitudes above about 1 km, long-range transport occurs frequently. However, only infrequently does large-scale subsidence descend such air masses to become entrained into the mixed layer in the high Arctic, and there-fore long-range transport plumes are unlikely to directly influence low-level stratiform cloud formation. Nonetheless, such plumes can influence the radiative balance of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) by influencing formation and evolution of higher clouds, as well as through precipitation transport of particles downwards. New particle formation was occasionally observed, particularly in the near-surface layer. We hypothesize that the origin of these ultrafine particles could be in biological processes, both primary and secondary, within the open leads between the pack ice and/or along the MIZ. In general, local sources, in combination with upstream boundary-layer transport of precursor gases from the MIZ, are considered to constitute the origin of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) particles and thus be of importance for the formation of interior Arctic low-level clouds during summer, and subsequently, through cloud influences, for the melting and freezing of sea ice.

  • 82. de la Vega, David
    et al.
    Matthews, James C. G.
    Norin, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Angulo, Itziar
    Mitigation Techniques to Reduce the Impact of Wind Turbines on Radar Services2013Ingår i: Energies, ISSN 1996-1073, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 6, nr 6, s. 2859-2873Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Radar services are occasionally affected by wind farms. This paper presents a comprehensive description of the effects that a wind farm may cause on the different radar services, and it compiles a review of the recent research results regarding the mitigation techniques to minimize this impact. Mitigation techniques to be applied at the wind farm and on the radar systems are described. The development of thorough impact studies before the wind farm is installed is presented as the best way to analyze in advance the potential for interference, and subsequently identify the possible solutions to allow the coexistence of wind farms and radar services.

  • 83.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Quaas, J.
    Grassl, H.
    Correcting orbital drift signal in the time series of AVHRR derived convective cloud fraction using rotated empirical orthogonal function2012Ingår i: ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES, ISSN 1867-1381, Vol. 5, nr 2, s. 267-273Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments onboard the series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites offer the longest available meteorological data records from space. These satellites have drifted in orbit resulting in shifts in the local time sampling during the life span of the sensors onboard. Depending upon the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of the geophysical parameters derived, orbital drift may cause spurious trends in their time series. We investigate tropical deep convective clouds, which show pronounced diurnal cycle amplitude, to estimate an upper bound of the impact of orbital drift on their time series. We carry out a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (REOF) and show that the REOFs are useful in delineating orbital drift signal and, more importantly, in subtracting this signal in the time series of convective cloud amount. These results will help facilitate the derivation of homogenized data series of cloud amount from NOAA satellite sensors and ultimately analyzing trends from them. However, we suggest detailed comparison of various methods and rigorous testing thereof applying final orbital drift corrections.

  • 84.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    An investigation of statistical link between inversion strength and carbon monoxide over Scandinavia in winter using AIRS data2012Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 56, s. 109-114Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Temperature inversions influence the local air quality at smaller scales and the pollution transport at larger spatio-temporal scales and are one of the most commonly observed meteorological phenomena over Scandinavia (54 degrees N-70 degrees N, 0-30 degrees E) during winter. Here, apart from presenting key statistics on temperature inversions, a large-scale co-variation of inversion strength and carbon monoxide (CO), an ideal pollution tracer, is further quantified at six vertical levels in the free troposphere during three distinct meteorological regimes that are identified based on inversion strength. Collocated temperature and CO profiles from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are used for this purpose. Higher values of CO (up to 15%) are observed over Scandinavia during weakly stable regimes at all vertical levels studied, whereas lower CO values (up to 10%) are observed when inversions become stronger and elevated. The observed systematic co-variation between CO and inversion strength in three meteorological regimes is most likely explained by the efficacy of long-range transport to influence tropospheric composition over Scandinavia. We argue that this large-scale co-variation of temperature inversions and CO would be a robust metric to test coupling of large-scale meteorology and chemistry in transport models. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 85.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Tjernstrom, M.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Kahn, B. H.
    Fetzer, E. J.
    Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the vertical distribution of clouds as observed by the A-Train constellation of satellites2012Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 12, nr 21, s. 10535-10544Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The main purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the dominant mode of natural variability over the northerly high latitudes, on the spatial (horizontal and vertical) distribution of clouds in the Arctic. To that end, we use a suite of sensors on-board NASA's A-Train satellites that provide accurate observations of the distribution of clouds along with information on atmospheric thermodynamics. Data from three independent sensors are used (AQUA-AIRS, CALIOP-CALIPSO and CPR-CloudSat) covering two time periods (winter half years, November through March, of 2002-2011 and 2006-2011, respectively) along with data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. We show that the zonal vertical distribution of cloud fraction anomalies averaged over 67-82 degrees N to a first approximation follows a dipole structure (referred to as "Greenland cloud dipole anomaly", GCDA), such that during the positive phase of the AO, positive and negative cloud anomalies are observed eastwards and westward of Greenland respectively, while the opposite is true for the negative phase of AO. By investigating the concurrent meteorological conditions (temperature, humidity and winds), we show that differences in the meridional energy and moisture transport during the positive and negative phases of the AO and the associated thermodynamics are responsible for the conditions that are conducive for the formation of this dipole structure. All three satellite sensors broadly observe this large-scale GCDA despite differences in their sensitivities, spatio-temporal and vertical resolutions, and the available lengths of data records, indicating the robustness of the results. The present study also provides a compelling case to carry out process-based evaluation of global and regional climate models.

  • 86.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Shupe, Matthew D.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    On the Relationship between Thermodynamic Structure and Cloud Top, and Its Climate Significance in the Arctic2012Ingår i: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 25, nr 7, s. 2374-2393Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Cloud and thermodynamic characteristics from three Arctic observation sites are investigated to understand the collocation between low-level clouds and temperature inversions. A regime where cloud top was 100-200 m above the inversion base [cloud inside inversion (CII)] was frequently observed at central Arctic Ocean sites, while observations from Barrow, Alaska, indicate that cloud tops were more frequently constrained to inversion base height [cloud capped by inversion (CCI)]. Cloud base and top heights were lower, and temperature inversions were also stronger and deeper, during CII cases. Both cloud regimes were often decoupled from the surface except for CCI over Barrow. In-cloud lapse rates differ and suggest increased cloud-mixing potential for CII cases. Specific humidity inversions were collocated with temperature inversions for more than 60% of the CCI and more than 85% of the CII regimes. Horizontal advection of heat and moisture is hypothesized as an important process controlling thermodynamic structure and efficiency of cloud-generated motions. The portion of CII clouds above the inversion contains cloud radar signatures consistent with cloud droplets. The authors test the longwave radiative impact of cloud liquid above the inversion through hypothetical liquid water distributions. Optically thin CII clouds alter the effective cloud emission temperature and can lead to an increase in surface flux on the order of 1.5 W m(-2) relative to the same cloud but whose top does not extend above the inversion base. The top of atmosphere impact is even larger, increasing outgoing longwave radiation up to 10 W m(-2). These results suggest a potentially significant longwave radiative forcing via simple liquid redistributions for a distinctly dominant cloud regime over sea ice.

  • 87.
    Sheldon, Johnston, Marston
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Eriksson, P.
    Eliasson, Salomon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Forbes, R. M.
    Murtagh, D. P.
    The representation of tropical upper tropospheric water in EC Earth V22012Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, nr 11, s. 2713-2731Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Tropical upper tropospheric humidity, clouds, and ice water content, as well as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), are evaluated in the climate model EC Earth with the aid of satellite retrievals. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and Microwave Limb Sounder together provide good coverage of relative humidity. EC Earth's relative humidity is in fair agreement with these observations. CloudSat and CALIPSO data are combined to provide cloud fractions estimates throughout the altitude region considered (500-100 hPa). EC Earth is found to overestimate the degree of cloud cover above 200 hPa and underestimate it below. Precipitating and non-precipitating EC Earth ice definitions are combined to form a complete ice water content. EC Earth's ice water content is below the uncertainty range of CloudSat above 250 hPa, but can be twice as high as CloudSat's estimate in the melting layer. CERES data show that the model underestimates the impact of clouds on OLR, on average with about 9 W m(-2). Regionally, EC Earth's outgoing longwave radiation can be similar to 20 W m(-2) higher than the observation. A comparison to ERA-Interim provides further perspectives on the model's performance. Limitations of the satellite observations are emphasised and their uncertainties are, throughout, considered in the analysis. Evaluating multiple model variables in parallel is a more ambitious approach than is customary.

  • 88.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Sensitivity of Cloud Liquid Water Content Estimates to the Temperature-Dependent Thermodynamic Phase: A Global Study Using CloudSat Data2012Ingår i: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 25, nr 20, s. 7297-7307Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The main purpose of this study is to underline the sensitivity of cloud liquid water content (LWC) estimates purely to 1) the shape of computationally simplified temperature-dependent thermodynamic phase and 2) the range of subzero temperatures covered to partition total cloud condensate into liquid and ice fractions. Linear, quadratic, or sigmoid-shaped functions for subfreezing temperatures (down to -20 degrees or -40 degrees C) are often used in climate models and reanalysis datasets for partitioning total condensate. The global vertical profiles of clouds obtained from CloudSat for the 4-yr period June 2006-May 2010 are used for sensitivity analysis and the quantitative estimates of sensitivities based on these realistic cloud profiles are provided. It is found that three cloud regimes in particular-convective clouds in the tropics, low-level clouds in the northern high latitudes, and middle-level clouds over the midlatitudes and Southern Ocean-are most sensitive to assumptions on thermodynamic phase. In these clouds, the LWC estimates based purely on quadratic or sigmoid-shaped functions with a temperature range down to -20 degrees C can differ by up to 20%-40% over the tropics (in seasonal means). 10%-30% over the midlatitudes, and up to 50% over high latitudes compared to a linear assumption. When the temperature range is extended down to -40 degrees C. LWC estimates in the sigmoid case can be much higher than the above values over high-latitude regions compared to the commonly used case with quadratic dependency down to -20 C. This sensitivity study emphasizes the need to critically investigate radiative impacts of cloud thermodynamic phase assumptions in simplified climate models and reanalysis datasets.

  • 89.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Clear-sky thermodynamic and radiative anomalies over a sea ice sensitive region of the Arctic2012Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 117, artikel-id D19111Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Monthly clear-sky anomalies of atmospheric temperature and water vapor over the East Siberian and Laptev Sea regions of the Arctic for 2003-2010 are examined here. This region experiences significant interannual variations in sea ice concentration and is also where ice loss was most apparent in the record year 2007. Clear-sky thermodynamic profiles come from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) sensor onboard the Aqua satellite. Associated longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) radiation-flux anomalies are estimated through radiative transfer modeling. Anomalies of temperature (+/- 10 K) and water vapor (+/- 1 g kg(-1)) often positively covary, resulting in distinct signatures in the clear-sky downwelling LW (LWD) anomalies, occasionally larger than +/- 10 W m(-2) around the 2003-2010 climatology. Estimates of mean greenhouse anomalies indicate a shift from negative to positive anomalies midway through the 8-year record. Sensitivity tests suggest that temperature anomalies are the strongest contributor to both LWD and greenhouse anomalies, relative to water-vapor anomalies; monthly averaging of column precipitable water yields relatively small anomalies (order 1 mm) that produce a linear response in greenhouse anomalies. Finally the clear-sky contribution to 2007 monthly ice thickness is estimated. Anomalous clear-sky radiation retards the total 2007 ice thickness by 0.3 m (15-30% of ice-thickness climatology), and anomalous LW radiation is most important for preconditioning the ice during the months prior to, and after, the summer melt season. A highly sensitive interaction between cloud fraction, surface albedo and LWD anomalies is found, and we develop a metric for determining clear-sky anomalous ice melt potential.

  • 90. Tjernstrom, M.
    et al.
    Birch, C. E.
    Brooks, I. M.
    Shupe, M. D.
    Persson, P. O. G.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Mauritsen, T.
    Leck, C.
    Paatero, J.
    Szczodrak, M.
    Wheeler, C. R.
    Meteorological conditions in the central Arctic summer during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS)2012Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 12, nr 15, s. 6863-6889Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding the rapidly changing climate in the Arctic is limited by a lack of understanding of underlying strong feedback mechanisms that are specific to the Arctic. Progress in this field can only be obtained by process-level observations; this is the motivation for intensive ice-breaker-based campaigns such as the Arctic Summer Cloud-Ocean Study (ASCOS), described here. However, detailed field observations also have to be put in the context of the larger-scale meteorology, and short field campaigns have to be analysed within the context of the underlying climate state and temporal anomalies from this. To aid in the analysis of other parameters or processes observed during this campaign, this paper provides an overview of the synoptic-scale meteorology and its climatic anomaly during the ASCOS field deployment. It also provides a statistical analysis of key features during the campaign, such as key meteorological variables, the vertical structure of the lower troposphere and clouds, and energy fluxes at the surface. In order to assess the representativity of the ASCOS results, we also compare these features to similar observations obtained during three earlier summer experiments in the Arctic Ocean: the AOE-96, SHEBA and AOE-2001 expeditions. We find that these expeditions share many key features of the summertime lower troposphere. Taking ASCOS and the previous expeditions together, a common picture emerges with a large amount of low-level cloud in a well-mixed shallow boundary layer, capped by a weak to moderately strong inversion where moisture, and sometimes also cloud top, penetrate into the lower parts of the inversion. Much of the boundary-layer mixing is due to cloud-top cooling and subsequent buoyant overturning of the cloud. The cloud layer may, or may not, be connected with surface processes depending on the depths of the cloud and surface-based boundary layers and on the relative strengths of surface-shear and cloud-generated turbulence. The latter also implies a connection between the cloud layer and the free troposphere through entrainment at cloud top.

  • 91. Birch, C. E.
    et al.
    Brooks, I. M.
    Tjernstrom, M.
    Shupe, M. D.
    Mauritsen, T.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Lock, A. P.
    Earnshaw, P.
    Persson, P. O. G.
    Milton, S. F.
    Leck, C.
    Modelling atmospheric structure, cloud and their response to CCN in the central Arctic: ASCOS case studies2012Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 12, nr 7, s. 3419-3435Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Observations made during late summer in the central Arctic Ocean, as part of the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), are used to evaluate cloud and vertical temperature structure in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The observation period can be split into 5 regimes; the first two regimes had a large number of frontal systems, which were associated with deep cloud. During the remainder of the campaign a layer of low-level cloud occurred, typical of central Arctic summer conditions, along with two periods of greatly reduced cloud cover. The short-range operational NWP forecasts could not accurately reproduce the observed variations in near-surface temperature. A major source of this error was found to be the temperature-dependant surface albedo parameterisation scheme. The model reproduced the low-level cloud layer, though it was too thin, too shallow, and in a boundary-layer that was too frequently well-mixed. The model was also unable to reproduce the observed periods of reduced cloud cover, which were associated with very low cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations (< 1 cm(-3)). As with most global NWP models, the MetUM does not have a prognostic aerosol/cloud scheme but uses a constant CCN concentration of 100 cm(-3) over all marine environments. It is therefore unable to represent the low CCN number concentrations and the rapid variations in concentration frequently observed in the central Arctic during late summer. Experiments with a single-column model configuration of the MetUM show that reducing model CCN number concentrations to observed values reduces the amount of cloud, increases the near-surface stability, and improves the representation of both the surface radiation fluxes and the surface temperature. The model is shown to be sensitive to CCN only when number concentrations are less than 10-20 cm(-3).

  • 92. Kumar, Madathiparambil Ranganathapai Ramesh
    et al.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Levy, Gad
    Sankar, Syam
    Bakan, Stephan
    Grassl, Hartmut
    A multi-sensor climatological view of double ITCZs over the Indian Ocean2012Ingår i: International Journal of Remote Sensing, ISSN 0143-1161, E-ISSN 1366-5901, Vol. 33, nr 9, s. 2925-2936Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We characterize the climatological features of the double inter-tropical convergence zones (DITCZs) over the western Indian Ocean during November-December by a synergistic analysis of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS III) data (1988-2005) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) A-Train data (2002-2009). We investigate rainfall, freshwater flux and cloud liquid water, cloud fraction and relative humidity over the DITCZs. In addition, the daily rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are used to document the DITCZs during the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) events. An analysis of the GPCP data shows that the DITCZs are clearly discernible during strong ENSO events (1997, 2002 and 2006), in sharp contrast to the DITCZs in the eastern Pacific Ocean, where they are absent during ENSOs. Further, these convergence zones on either side of the equator are of short duration, approximately 3-6 pentads during November and December. All satellite sensor data sets consistently capture the major features of DITCZs. As an accurate simulation of DITCZs in coupled global climate models remains a challenge, the results from the present study would provide a platform for evaluating these models.

  • 93. Rossa, Andrea
    et al.
    Liechti, Katharina
    Zappa, Massimiliano
    Bruen, Michael
    Germann, Urs
    Haase, Günther
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Keil, Christian
    Krahe, Peter
    The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems2011Ingår i: Atmospheric research, ISSN 0169-8095, E-ISSN 1873-2895, Vol. 100, nr 2-3, s. 150-167Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Quantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly nonlinear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems. COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3) advancing high-resolution numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, for instance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can be resolved by conventional observing systems. Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challenge COST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups at the interfaces between the different scientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric (and hydrological) modelling (WG-1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG-2) and between hydrologic modelling and end-users (WG-3). This paper summarizes the COST 731 activities and its context, provides a review of the recent progress made in dealing with uncertainties in flood forecasting, and sets the scene for the papers of this Thematic Issue. In particular, a bibliometric analysis highlights the strong recent increase in addressing the uncertainty analysis in flood forecasting from an integrated perspective. Such a perspective necessarily involves the area of meteorology, hydrology, and decision making in order to take operational advantage of the scientific progress, an aspect in which COST 731 is successfully contributing to furthering the flood damage mitigation capabilities in Europe. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 94.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    A global survey of aerosol-liquid water cloud overlap based on four years of CALIPSO-CALIOP data2011Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 11, nr 3, s. 1143-1154Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Simulating the radiative impacts of aerosols located above liquid water clouds presents a significant challenge. In particular, absorbing aerosols, such as smoke, may have significant impact in such situations and even change the sign of net radiative forcing. It is not possible to reliably obtain information on such overlap events from existing passive satellite sensors. However, the CALIOP instrument onboard NASA's CALIPSO satellite allows us to examine these events with unprecedented accuracy. Using four years of collocated CALIPSO 5 km Aerosol and Cloud Layer Version 3 Products (June 2006 May 2010), we quantify, for the first time, the characteristics of overlapping aerosol and water cloud layers globally. We investigate seasonal variability in these characteristics over six latitude bands to understand the hemispheric differences when all aerosol types are included in the analysis (the AAO case). We also investigate frequency of smoke aerosol-cloud overlap (the SAO case). Globally, the frequency is highest during the JJA months in the AAO case, while for the SAO case, it is highest in the SON months. The seasonal mean overlap frequency can regionally exceed 20% in the AAO case and 10% in the SAO case. In about 5-10% cases the vertical distance between aerosol and cloud layers is less than 100 m, while about in 45-60% cases it less than a kilometer in the annual means for different latitudinal bands. In about 70-80% cases, aerosol layers are less than a kilometer thick, while in about 18-22% cases they are 1-2 km thick. The frequency of aerosol layers 2-3 km thick is about 4-5% in the tropical belts during overlap events. Over the regions where high aerosol loadings are present, the overlap frequency can be up to 50% higher when quality criteria on aerosol/cloud feature detection are relaxed. Over the polar regions, more than 50% of the overlapping aerosol layers have optical thickness less than 0.02, but the contribution from the relatively optically thicker aerosol layers increases towards the equatorial regions in both hemispheres. The results suggest that the frequency of occurrence of overlap events is far from being negligible globally.

  • 95.
    Ridal, Martin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Lindskog, Magnus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Haase, Günther
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Optimized advection of radar reflectivities2011Ingår i: Atmospheric research, ISSN 0169-8095, E-ISSN 1873-2895, Vol. 100, nr 2-3, s. 213-225Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A nowcasting system for generation of short-range precipitation forecasts has been developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The methodology consists of utilising a time-series of radar reflectivity composites for deriving an advection field, which will give a better representation of the motion of the precipitation pattern compared to a model wind field. The advection field is derived applying a 4-dimensional variational data assimilation technique. The resulting field is then used for a semi-Lagrangian advection of the latest available reflectivity field forward in time. During the forecast, the advected field is gradually replaced by a numerical weather prediction forecast in order to include the onset of convection and advection into the radar coverage area. In an idealised example with simulated observations the functionality of the method is demonstrated. For a case study of a full scale example the resulting precipitation forecast shows large improvements compared to the operational numerical weather prediction model used at SMHI, especially for forecasts up to three hours, where the largest influence from the radar advection occurs. In an objective validation of the structure, amplitude and location of modelled precipitation, where the forecasts are compared to radar observations, these findings are confirmed. The same validation of model runs over a longer time period also clearly indicates that the amplitude, structure and location of the precipitation patterns are significantly improved as compared to a short-range forecast from the operational forecast model used at SMHI. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 96. Salonen, Kirsti
    et al.
    Haase, Gunther
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Eresmaa, Reima
    Hohti, Harri
    Jarvinen, Heikki
    Towards the operational use of Doppler radar radial winds in HIRLAM2011Ingår i: Atmospheric research, ISSN 0169-8095, E-ISSN 1873-2895, Vol. 100, nr 2-3, s. 190-200Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article discusses the pre-operational development for data assimilation of radial wind observations in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The HIRLAM variational data assimilation system includes all the needed tools for exploitation of radial wind observations. A measurement task designed especially for the radial wind data assimilation purposes has been implemented to the FMI radar network. Observation quality monitoring indicates that the main error sources for the radial wind observations are ground clutter and velocity ambiguity. The HIRLAM quality control procedures are able to detect and reject most of these erroneous observations. Impact studies show encouraging results. Surface verification indicates that the use of radar wind observations has a positive impact on 10 m wind forecasts. Precipitation forecasts are also slightly improved. Upper air verification shows positive impact on wind and temperature forecasts at the 925-700 hPa levels. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 97.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Omar, Ali H.
    The vertical distribution of thin features over the Arctic analysed from CALIPSO observations2011Ingår i: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology, ISSN 0280-6509, E-ISSN 1600-0889, Vol. 63, nr 1, s. 77-85Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Clouds play a crucial role in the Arctic climate system. Therefore, it is essential to accurately and reliably quantify and understand cloud properties over the Arctic. It is also important to monitor and attribute changes in Arctic clouds. Here, we exploit the capability of the CALIPSO-CALIOP instrument and provide comprehensive statistics of tropospheric thin clouds, otherwise extremely difficult to monitor from passive satellite sensors. We use 4 yr of data (June 2006-May 2010) over the circumpolar Arctic, here defined as 67-82 degrees N, and characterize probability density functions of cloud base and top heights, geometrical thickness and zonal distribution of such cloud layers, separately for water and ice phases, and discuss seasonal variability of these properties. When computed for the entire study area, probability density functions of cloud base and top heights and geometrical thickness peak at 200-400, 1000-2000 and 400-800 m, respectively, for thin water clouds, while for ice clouds they peak at 6-8, 7-9 and 400-1000 m, respectively. In general, liquid clouds were often identified below 2 km during all seasons, whereas ice clouds were sensed throughout the majority of the upper troposphere and also, but to a smaller extent, below 2 km for all seasons.

  • 98.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Tjernstrom, M.
    Characteristics of water-vapour inversions observed over the Arctic by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and radiosondes2011Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 11, nr 18, s. 9813-9823Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    An accurate characterization of the vertical structure of the Arctic atmosphere is useful in climate change and attribution studies as well as for the climate modelling community to improve projections of future climate over this highly sensitive region. Here, we investigate one of the dominant features of the vertical structure of the Arctic atmosphere, i.e. water-vapour inversions, using eight years of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder data (2002-2010) and radiosounding profiles released from the two Arctic locations (North Slope of Alaska at Barrow and during SHEBA). We quantify the characteristics of clear-sky water vapour inversions in terms of their frequency of occurrence, strength and height covering the entire Arctic for the first time. We found that the frequency of occurrence of water-vapour inversions is highest during winter and lowest during summer. The inversion strength is, however, higher during summer. The observed peaks in the median inversion-layer heights are higher during the winter half of the year, at around 850 hPa over most of the Arctic Ocean, Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, while being around 925 hPa during most of the summer half of the year over the Arctic Ocean. The radiosounding profiles agree with the frequency, location and strength of water-vapour inversions in the Pacific sector of the Arctic. In addition, the radiosoundings indicate that multiple inversions are the norm with relatively few cases without inversions. The amount of precipitable water within the water-vapour inversion structures is estimated and we find a distinct, two-mode contribution to the total column precipitable water. These results suggest that water-vapour inversions are a significant source to the column thermodynamics, especially during the colder winter and spring seasons. We argue that these inversions are a robust metric to test the reproducibility of thermodynamics within climate models. An accurate statistical representation of water-vapour inversions in models would mean that the large-scale coupling of moisture transport, precipitation, temperature and water-vapour vertical structure and radiation are essentially captured well in such models.

  • 99.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Omar, Ali H.
    The vertical distribution of thin features over the Arctic analysed from CALIPSO observations2011Ingår i: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology, ISSN 0280-6509, E-ISSN 1600-0889, Vol. 63, nr 1, s. 86-95Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Influx of aerosols from the mid-latitudes has a wide range of impacts on the Arctic atmosphere. In this study, the capability of the CALIPSO-CALIOP instrument to provide accurate observations of aerosol layers is exploited to characterize their vertical distribution, probability density functions (PDFs) of aerosol layer thickness, base and top heights, and optical depths over the Arctic for the 4-yr period from June 2006 to May 2010. It is shown that the bulk of aerosols, from about 65% in winter to 45% in summer, are confined below the lowermost kilometer of the troposphere. In the middle troposphere (3-5 km), spring and autumn seasons show slightly higher aerosol amounts compared to other two seasons. The relative vertical distribution of aerosols shows that clean continental aerosol is the largest contributor in all seasons except in summer, when layers of polluted continental aerosols are almost as large. In winter and spring, polluted continental aerosols are the second largest contributor to the total number of observed aerosol layers, whereas clean marine aerosol is the second largest contributor in summer and autumn. The PDFs of the geometrical thickness of the observed aerosol layers peak about 400-700 m. Polluted continental and smoke aerosols, which are associated with the intrusions from mid-latitudes, have much broader distributions of optical and geometrical thicknesses, suggesting that they appear more often optically thicker and higher up in the troposphere.

  • 100.
    Thomas, Manu Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Suntharalingam, P.
    Pozzoli, L.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Kloster, S.
    Rast, S.
    Feichter, J.
    Lenton, T. M.
    Rate of non-linearity in DMS aerosol-cloud-climate interactions2011Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 11, nr 21, s. 11175-11183Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The degree of non-linearity in DMS-cloud-climate interactions is assessed using the ECHAM5-HAMMOZ model by taking into account end-to-end aerosol chemistry-cloud microphysics link. The evaluation is made over the Southern oceans in austral summer, a region of minimal anthropogenic influence. In this study, we compare the DMS-derived changes in the aerosol and cloud microphysical properties between a baseline simulation with the ocean DMS emissions from a prescribed climatology, and a scenario where the DMS emissions are doubled. Our results show that doubling the DMS emissions in the current climate results in a non-linear response in atmospheric DMS burden and subsequently, in SO2 and H2SO4 burdens due to inadequate OH oxidation. The aerosol optical depth increases by only similar to 20% in the 30 degrees S-75 degrees S belt in the SH summer months. This increases the vertically integrated cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC) by 25 %. Since the vertically integrated liquid water vapor is constant in our model simulations, an increase in CDNC leads to a reduction in cloud droplet radius of 3.4 % over the Southern oceans in summer. The equivalent increase in cloud liquid water path is 10.7 %. The above changes in cloud microphysical properties result in a change in global annual mean radiative forcing at the TOA of -1.4 W m(-2). The results suggest that the DMS-cloud microphysics link is highly non-linear. This has implications for future studies investigating the DMS-cloud climate feedbacks in a warming world and for studies evaluating geoengineering options to counteract warming by modulating low level marine clouds.

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