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  • 81. Jeworrek, Julia
    et al.
    Wu, Lichuan
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Characteristics of convective snow bands along the Swedish east coast2017In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 8, p. 163-175Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 82. Bartolino, Valerio
    et al.
    Tian, Huidong
    Bergstrom, Ulf
    Jounela, Pekka
    Aro, Eero
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Cardinale, Massimiliano
    Bland, Barbara
    Casini, Michele
    Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population2017In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 2, article id e0172004Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 83.
    Wåhlström, Irene
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Evaluation of open sea boundary conditions for the coastal zone. A model study in the northern part of the Baltic Proper.2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The environmental conditions in the coastal zone are strongly connected with the conditions in the open sea as the transports across the boundaries are extensive. Therefore, it is of critical importance that coastal zone models have lateral boundary forcing of high quality and required parameters with good coverage in space and time.

    The Swedish Coastal zone Model (SCM) is developed at SMHI to calculate water quality in the coastal zone. This model is currently forced by the outcome from a one-dimensional model, assimilated to observations along the coast. However, these observations are scarce both in space, time and do usually not include all required parameters. In addition, the variability closer to the coast may be underestimated by the open sea monitoring stations used for the data assimilation. These problems are partly overcome by utilize the one-dimensional model that resolves all the variables used in the SCM. However, the method is not applicable for examine either the past period or future scenario where the latter analyze how climate change might affect the coastal zone. In the present study, we therefore evaluate the possibility to use results from a three-dimensional coupled physical and biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea as open sea boundary conditions for the coastal zone, primarily to investigate the two periods mentioned above.

    Seven sensitivity experiments have been carried out in a pilot area of the coastal zone, the northern part of the Baltic proper, including the Stockholm Archipelago. The sensitivity tests were performed in order to explore methods to extract the outcome from the three-dimensional model, RCO-SCOBI, and apply as lateral boundary forcing for the SCM. RCO-SCOBI is a model for the open Baltic Sea with high horizontal and vertical resolution of the required variables. The results from the different tests were examined and evaluated against observations in the coastal zone. This was executed for both the physical and the biogeochemical variables utilizing a statistical method.

    The results from this study concluded that the outcome from the RCO-SCOBI is applicable as forcing files for the SCM. The best results in the tests was obtained with a method extracting depth profiles for the required variables from the RCO-SCOBI at a position 10 nautical miles to the east and 10 nautical miles to the south in the Baltic proper or north in the Gulf of Bothnia outside each of the outer basins.

  • 84. Goerlandt, Floris
    et al.
    Goite, Habtamnesh
    Banda, Osiris A. Valdez
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Ahonen-Rainio, Paula
    Lensu, Mikko
    An analysis of wintertime navigational accidents in the Northern Baltic Sea2017In: Safety Science, ISSN 0925-7535, E-ISSN 1879-1042, Vol. 92, p. 66-84Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 85. Walve, J
    et al.
    Höglander, H
    Andersson, A
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Karlsson, C
    Johansen, Marie
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Phytoplankton in coastal waters2016In: Ecological Assessment of Swedish Water Bodies; development, harmonisation and integration of biological indicators.: Final report of the research programme WATERS. Deliverable 1.1-4, WATERS report no 2016:10. Havsmiljöinstitutet, Sweden, 95-106., 2016Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 86. Fredriksson, S. T.
    et al.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Nilsson, H.
    Handler, R. A.
    Surface shear stress dependence of gas transfer velocity parameterizations using DNS2016In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 121, no 10, p. 7369-7389Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 87.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Modelling nutrient retention in the coastal zone of an eutrophic sea2016In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 13, no 20, p. 5753-5769Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 88.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Decadal-to-Centennial Variability of Salinity in the Baltic Sea2016In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 29, no 20, p. 7173-7188Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 89. Eero, Margit
    et al.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?2016In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 45, no 6, p. 649-660Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 90.
    Karlson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Lars
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Kaitala, S.
    Kronsell, Johan
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Mohlin, M.
    Seppala, J.
    Wranne, A. Willstrand
    A comparison of FerryBox data vs. monitoring data from research vessels for near surface waters of the Baltic Sea and the Kattegat2016In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 162, p. 98-111Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 91. Holopainen, Reetta
    et al.
    Lehtiniemi, Maiju
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Albertsson, Jan
    Gorokhova, Elena
    Kotta, Jonne
    Viitasalo, Markku
    Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century2016In: Biological Invasions, ISSN 1387-3547, E-ISSN 1573-1464, Vol. 18, no 10, p. 3015-3032Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 92. Puillat, I.
    et al.
    Farcy, P.
    Durand, D.
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Petihakis, G.
    Seppala, J.
    Sparnocchia, S.
    Progress in marine science supported by European joint coastal observation systems: The JERICO-RI research infrastructure2016In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 162, p. 1-3Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 93.
    Wåhlström, Irene
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Impact of increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water on the sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea2016In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 121, no 7, p. 1867-1883Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 94.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Invasive species in the Baltic Sea A model study of plankton transport2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report, an ensemble of releases of passive particles at locations close to some

    selected ports around the Baltic Sea and Kattegat are modelled. The particles are

    transported with the currents. Maps of particle densities at 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 52

    weeks after the release are presented.

    The results indicate that many basins are narrow enough for the particles to cross

    from shore to shore within two weeks, e.g., in the Kattegat, Gulf of Finland and

    Kvarken. The results also show an asymmetry in the transport between different

    locations, which means that particles released from one location to another require

    substantially more time to reach the other location, if at all, than particles going

    in the opposite direction. Some potential barriers to transport are identified and

    discussed.

  • 95. Enmar, Linda
    et al.
    Lake, Irene
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Lundberg, Peter
    Sigray, Peter
    A note on ADCP-based indirect observations of turbulence2016In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 21, no 1-2, p. 44-52Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A 70-day data set from bottom-mounted ADCPs on the two sides of the Faroe-Bank Channel was analysed using the recorded flow variance and echo intensity in the deeper reaches of the passage as proxies for turbulence. A consistent picture emerged, not least since the data losses (which were ascribed to turbulence-induced activation of the fish-elimination option in the ADCP software) could be shown to co-vary with the internal M-2 tide affecting the vertical shear, which in turn proved to be correlated with the flow variance.

  • 96. Hu, Yue O. O.
    et al.
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Charvet, Sophie
    Andersson, Anders F.
    Diversity of Pico- to Mesoplankton along the 2000 km Salinity Gradient of the Baltic Sea2016In: Frontiers in Microbiology, ISSN 1664-302X, E-ISSN 1664-302X, Vol. 7, article id 679Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 97.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Model study on the variability of ecosystem parameters in the Skagerrak-Kattegat area, effect of load reduction in the North Sea and possible effect of BSAP on Skagerrak-Kattegat area2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Newly developed ecosystem model NEMO-Nordic-SCOBI was applied to Skagerrak - Kattegat area to investigate the variability of some indicators of the ecosystem. Also, two sensitivity runs were performed to investigate possible effect of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) and a river loads reduction scenario on the Skagerrak - Kattegat area. The performed investigation could be used “to provide a basis to assist with the interpretation of measurement data before the Intermediate Assessments Eutrophication status assessment”. Comparison of simulation results with observations indicates acceptable model performance. Modeled sea surface salinity, temperature and dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) are in good agreement with observations. At the same time, the model has a bias in certain areas of the investigated region for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved silicate during the winter season. However, the model in its current state shows good enough results for the performed investigation. Results of the two sensitivity studies show a decrease of sea surface nutrients concentrations during winter period in both regions. In the Skagerrak area the decrease is due to reduction in river nutrient loads in North Sea. In the Kattegat area there is a decrease of dissolved phosphate due to the implementation of BSAP. At the same time, in both scenarios, no significant changes were obtained for near bottom oxygen or surface layer Chl-a.

  • 98.
    Andersson, Helén
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eriksson Bram, Lena
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Löptien, Ulrike
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Översikt av beräkningsmodeller för bedömning av fiskodlingars näringsämnesbelastning på sjöar, vattendrag, magasin och kustvatten2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den här rapporten är en kunskapssammanställning som utförts av SMHI på uppdrag av Havs- och Vattenmyndigheten. Den utgör inte något ställningstagande från Havs- och vattenmyndighetens sida. Rapporten försöker att sammanfatta den problematik som associeras med näringsämnesbelastningar från fiskodlingar i öppna kassar, vilka typer av beräkningar som kan behöva göras för att få en uppfattning om hur dessa kan påverka miljön samt några olika typer av modeller för detta ändamål.

    Fisk-, alg- och skaldjursodling är en växande industri runt om i världen som kan ge såväl näringsrik och hälsosam mat som arbetstillfällen. En nackdel med framförallt fiskodling i öppna kassar är att den kan innebära en påfrestning för vattenmiljön. De näringsämnen som ofta släpps ut från odlingen kan bidra till den övergödningsproblematik som redan finns i många sjöar och havsområden. Det är därför av största vikt att få en god uppskattning av den förväntade storleken på utsläppen förknippade med en öppen odling samt hur de kan tänkas förändra vattenkvaliteten på odlingsplatsen och dess närhet. Beräkningsmodeller kan vara till god hjälp vid bedömningen.

    Fiskar utsöndrar lösta näringsämnen och från odlingskassarna faller det också ut partikulärt organiskt material i form av fekalier och oätet foder. Storleken på näringsämneskällorna behöver beräknas och det finns modeller av olika komplexitet för att uppskatta detta. Storleken på det partikulära avfallet är viktigt dels för att det bidrarmed näringsämnen till vattnet och dels för att det kan ge upphov till ansamlingar av organiskt material på bottnen. När det organiska materialet bryts ner förbrukas syre och om ansamlingarna blir omfattande finns en risk för att det uppstår syrebrist vid bottnen. Om svavelväte bildas kan det orsaka skador på såväl den odlade fisken som det lokala ekosystemet. Odlingen kan också bidra till en försämrad vattenkvalitet i sin omgivning genom att tillgången av lösta näringsämnen blir större och därmed ge en ökad algproduktion. Den ökade algproduktionen skall i sin tur brytas ner och kan i förlängningen bidra till syrebristproblematiken.

    Det finns ett antal modeller som är specifikt utvecklade för fiskodlingar i öppna kassar och de tar i olika hög grad upp den beskrivna problematiken. Rapporten innehåller detaljerade genomgångar av några av modeller för att visa på styrkor och svagheter kring olika angreppsätt. Den innehåller också sammanfattningar av några vanligt förekommande modeller som använts internationellt vid bedömning av fiskodlingars miljöpåverkan. För att minska den negativa påverkan på vattenmiljön från har det också utvecklats recirkulerande system för odling. Rapporten tar inte upp belastning från den typen av fiskodlingar. Om utsläppen från ett sådant system är känt kan dock vattenkvalitetsmodeller användas för att se effekten av utsläpp från en punktkälla.

    Rapporten sammanfattar ett antal vattenkvalitetsmodeller för sjöar, vattendrag, kust och hav. En vattenkvalitetsmodell behöver inte nödvändigtvis vara utvecklad för att beskriva konsekvenser av fiskodlingar men bör kunna hantera frågeställningar som uppkommer vid bedömningar av övergödningsrisk vid utsläpp från en punktkälla. Den behöver därför kunna simulera parametrar såsom förändringen av näringsämneskoncentrationer, primärproduktion, siktdjup och syrgashalter på olika nivåer i vattenmassan. Modeller för den här typen av uppskattningar finns också i olika komplexitetsgrad och för olika skalor i tid och rum.

    Vid modellering är en god tillgång till observationer en förutsättning för pålitliga modellresultat och behövs såväl för att driva och kalibrera modellen som för validering av modellresultaten. Det är viktigt att tillgängliga data håller god kvalitet. En noggrann analys och beskrivning av den tillgängliga databasen hjälper därmed till att bedöma tillförlitligheten av modellsimuleringarna.

  • 99.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions2016In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 1-2, p. 317-337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980-2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO-negative after low ice-but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes.

  • 100. Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Nycander, Jonas
    Morth, Carl-Magnus
    Humborg, Christoph
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Tracing terrestrial DOC in the Baltic SeaA 3-D model study2016In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 30, no 2, p. 134-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The fate of terrestrial organic matter brought to the coastal seas by rivers and its role in the global carbon cycle are still not very well known. Here the degradation rate of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOCter) is studied in the Baltic Sea, a subarctic semienclosed sea, by releasing it as a tracer in a 3-D circulation model and applying linear decay constants. A good agreement with available observational data is obtained by parameterizing the degradation in two rather different ways: one by applying a decay time on the order of 10years to the whole pool of DOCter and one by dividing the DOCter into onerefractory pool and one pool subject to a decay time on the order of 1year. The choice ofparameterization has asignificant effect on where in the Baltic Sea the removal takes place, which can be of importance whenmodeling the full carbon cycle and the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere. In both cases the biogeochemical decayoperates on time scales less than the water residence time. Therefore, only a minor fraction of the DOCter reaches the North Sea, whereas approximately 80% is removed by internal sinks within the Baltic Sea. This further implies that DOCter mineralization is an important link in land-sea-atmosphere cycling of carbon in coastal and shelf seas that are heavily influenced by riverine DOC.

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