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  • 51.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Modelling nitrogen transport and retention in the catchments of southern Sweden1998Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 27, nr 6, s. 471-480Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication and attempts are being made to reduce nutrient loads. This article focuses on nitrogen transport from southern Sweden (145 000 km(2)), and presents a model approach (HBV-N) that has been used in the national decision-making process for best management practices. Calculations of nitrogen leaching, retention in the freshwater system, net transport to the sea, and source apportionment are presented for the period 1985-1994. Input data were handled in GIS, including results from SOIL-N and MATCH. Daily simulations were made in 3725 subbasins with calibration against measured time series at 722 sites. Diffuse source pollution was normally retained by 10-25% before entering the river network. Lakes normally reduced nitrogen transport by 30-40 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) of lake area. On average, 45% of the annual gross load was reduced during transport, but temporal and spatial variations were great. 75 000 tonnes N yr(-1) reached the sea.

  • 52.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Watershed modelling of nonpoint nitrogen losses from arable land to the Swedish coast in 1985 and 19942000Ingår i: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, Vol. 14, nr 4, s. 389-404Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Eutrophication problems in the Baltic Sea have drawn attention to the contribution of nutrients from surrounding countries. By using the HBV-N model in southern Sweden (145 000 km(2)) daily nitrogen leaching, reduction in rivers and lakes, net transport to the sea and source apportionment have been calculated in 3725 subbasins for the period 1985-1994, with calibration at 722 sites against measured time series. On average, 48% of the nonpoint losses from agriculture were reduced during the transport towards the sea, which left about 33 500 tonnes in annual mean net transport. This represents 45% of the total land-based load. Land cover and emissions for the years of 1985 and 1994 were used in two separate simulations of the 10-year period. The normalized gross leakage from arable land in 1985 was estimated to 29 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), which corresponds to 15 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in net leakage to the sea. In 1994 these transports were reduced by 20 and 15%, and thereby the total load on the sea was decreased by 7%. This is still far from the Swedish goal of 50% reduction. The article presents the spatial variation of nitrogen leakage and retention within the southern half of Sweden, and emphasizes the importance of allocating measures where down-stream retention is low in order to achieve efficiency with respect to the sea. It is shown that the model approach may be used in the decision making process for best management practices in watersheds. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 53.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Dahne, Joel
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan2012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 600-612Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.

  • 54.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Dahne, Joel
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Water and nutrient simulations using the HYPE model for Sweden vs. the Baltic Sea basin - influence of input-data quality and scale2012Ingår i: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 43, nr 4, s. 315-329Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Water resource management is often based on numerical models, and large-scale models are sometimes used for international strategic agreements. Sometimes the modelled area entails several political entities and river basins. To avoid methodological bias in results, methods and databases should be homogenous across political and geophysical boundaries, but this may involve fewer details and more assumptions. This paper quantifies the uncertainty when the same model code is applied using two different input datasets; a more detailed one for the country of Sweden (S-HYPE) and a more general one for the entire Baltic Sea basin (Balt-HYPE). Results from the two model applications were compared for the Swedish landmass and for two specific Swedish river basins. The results show that both model applications may be useful in providing spatial information of water and nutrients at various scales. For water discharge, most relative errors are <10% for S-HYPE and <25% for Balt-HYPE. Both applications reproduced the most mean concentration for nitrogen within 25% of the observed mean values, but phosphorus showed a larger scatter. Differences in model set-up were reflected in the simulation of both spatial and temporal dynamics. The most sensitive data were precipitation/temperature, agriculture and model parameter values.

  • 55.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change2017Ingår i: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 8, artikel-id 62Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 56.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Artificially Induced Floods to Manage Forest Habitats Under Climate Change2018Ingår i: FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, ISSN 2296-665X, Vol. 6, artikel-id 102Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 57.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lidén, R.
    SMHI.
    Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations from agricultural catchments - influence of spatial and temporal variables2000Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 227, nr 1-4, s. 140-159Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The eutrophication problem has drawn attention to nutrient leaching from arable land in southern Sweden, and further understanding of spatial and temporal variability is needed in order to develop decision-making tools. Thus, the influence of spatial and temporal variables was analysed statistically using empirical time series of different nutrient species from 35 well-documented catchments (2-35 km(2)), which have been monitored for an average of 5 years. In the spatial analysis several significant correlations between winter median concentrations and catchment characteristics were found. The strongest correlation was found between inorganic nitrogen and land use, while concentrations of different phosphorus species were highly correlated to soil texture. Multiple linear regression models gave satisfactory results for prediction of median winter concentrations in unmeasured catchments, especially for inorganic nitrogen and phosphate. In the analysis of temporal variability within catchments, internal variables from a dynamic hydrological model (HBV) were linked to concentration fluxes. It was found that phosphorus and inorganic nitrogen concentrations were elevated during flow increase at low-Bow conditions, while they were diluted as the wetness in the catchment increased. During unmonitored periods regression models were successful in predicting temporal variability of total phosphorus, phosphate and inorganic nitrogen, while organic nitrogen and particulate phosphorus could not be predicted with this approach. Dividing the data into different flow categories did not improve the prediction of nutrient concentration dynamics. The results and literature review presented, confirm parts of the present HBV-W model approach and will be useful for further development of nutrient routines linked to dynamic hydrological models. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 58.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911-2100)2015Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 19, nr 2, s. 771-784Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the country (450 000 km(2)) with high-resolution dynamic model projections of the upcoming century. The results show that the changes in annual maximum daily flows in Sweden oscillate between dry and wet periods but exhibit no significant trend over the past 100 years. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver of changes in river high flows, which are related primarily to snowmelt in Sweden. Annual daily high flows may decrease by on average -1% per decade in the future, mainly due to lower peaks from snowmelt in the spring (-2% per decade) as a result of higher temperatures and a shorter snow season. In contrast, autumn flows may increase by + 3% per decade due to more intense rainfall. This indicates a shift in floodgenerating processes in the future, with greater influence of rain-fed floods. Changes in climate may have a more significant impact on some specific rivers than on the average for the whole country. Our results suggest that the temporal pattern in future daily high flow in some catchments will shift in time, with spring floods in the northern-central part of Sweden occurring about 1 month earlier than today. High flows in the southern part of the country may become more frequent. Moreover, the current boundary between snow-driven floods in northern-central Sweden and rain-driven floods in the south may move toward higher latitudes due to less snow accumulation in the south and at low altitudes. The findings also indicate a tendency in observations toward the modeled projections for timing of daily high flows over the last 25 years. Uncertainties related to both the observed data and the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology are discussed.

  • 59.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    A systematic review of sensitivities in the Swedish flood-forecasting system2011Ingår i: Atmospheric research, ISSN 0169-8095, E-ISSN 1873-2895, Vol. 100, nr 2-3, s. 275-284Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Since the early 1970s operational flood forecasts in Sweden have been based on the hydrological HBV model. However, the model is only one component in a chain of processes for production of hydrological forecasts. During the last 35 years there has been considerable work on improving different parts of the forecast procedure and results from specific studies have been reported frequently. Yet, the results have not been compared in any overall assessment of potential for improvements. Therefore we formulated and applied a method for translating results from different studies to a common criterion of error reduction. The aim was to quantify potential improvements in a systems perspective and to identify in which part of the production chain efforts would result in significantly better forecasts. The most sensitive (> 20% error reduction) components were identified for three different operational-forecast types. From the analyses of historical efforts to minimise the errors in the Swedish flood-forecasting system, it was concluded that 1) general runoff simulations and predictions could be significantly improved by model structure and calibration, model equations (e.g. evapotranspiration expression), and new precipitation input using radar data as a complement to station gauges; 2) annual spring-flood forecasts could be significantly improved by better seasonal meteorological forecast, fresh re-calibration of the hydrological model based on long time-series, and data assimilation of snow-pack measurements using georadar or gamma-ray technique; 3) short-term (2 days) forecasts could be significantly improved by up-dating using an auto-regressive method for discharge, and by ensembles of meteorological forecasts using the median at occasions when the deterministic forecast is out of the ensemble range. The study emphasises the importance of continuously evaluating the entire production chain to search for potential improvements of hydrological forecasts in the operational environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 60.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lowgren, M
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Integrated catchment modeling for nutrient reduction: Scenarios showing impacts, potential, and cost of measures2005Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 34, nr 7, s. 513-520Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A hydrological-based model (HBV-NP) was applied to a catchment (1900 km(2)) in the southern part of Sweden. Careful characterization of the present load situation and the potential for improved treatment or reduced soil leaching were analyzed. Several scenarios were modeled to find strategies to reach the Swedish environmental goals of reducing anthropogenic nitrogen load by 30% and phosphorus load by 20%. It was stated that the goals could be reached by different approaches that would affect different polluters and social sectors. However, no single measure was enough by itself. Instead, a combination of measures was necessary to achieve the goals. The nitrogen goal was the most difficult to attain. In order to be cost-effective, these measures should be applied to areas contributing the most to the net loading of the sea. This strategy could reduce the costs by 70%-80% when compared with implementing the measures in the entire catchment. Integrated catchment models may thus be helpful tools for reducing costs in environmental control programs.

  • 61.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Nilsson, Johanna
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Experimenting with Coupled Hydro-Ecological Models to Explore Measure Plans and Water Quality Goals in a Semi-Enclosed Swedish Bay2015Ingår i: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 7, nr 7, s. 3906-3924Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Measure plans are currently being developed for the Water Framework Directive (WFD) by European water authorities. In Sweden, such plans include measures for good ecological status in the coastal ecosystem. However, the effect of suggested measures is not yet known. We therefore experimented with different nutrient reduction measures on land and in the sea, using a model system of two coupled dynamic models for a semi-enclosed bay and its catchment. The science question was whether it is worthwhile to implement measures in the local catchment area to reach local environmental goals, or if the status of the Bay is more governed by the water exchange with the Sea. The results indicate that by combining several measures in the catchment, the nutrient load can be reduced by 15%-20%. To reach the same effect on nutrient concentrations in the Bay, the concentrations of the sea must be reduced by 80%. Hence, in this case, local measures have a stronger impact on coastal water quality. The experiment also show that the present targets for good ecological status set up by the Swedish water authorities may be unrealistic for this Bay. Finally, we discuss when and how to use hydro-ecological models for societal needs.

  • 62.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lessons learned? Effects of nutrient reductions from constructing wetlands in 1996–2006 across Sweden2016Ingår i: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, s. 1-11Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 63.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Torstensson, G
    Wittgren, Hans Bertil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen.
    Landscape planning to reduce coastal eutrophication: agricultural practices and constructed wetlands2004Ingår i: Landscape and Urban Planning, ISSN 0169-2046, E-ISSN 1872-6062, Vol. 67, nr 1-4, s. 205-215Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Southern Sweden suffers from coastal eutrophication and one reason is the high nitrogen load through rivers. The major part of this load originates from diffuse land-based sources, e.g. arable soil leaching. Effective reduction of load from such sources demand careful landscape analysis, combined with changed behaviour of the stakeholders. This study describes a chain of methods to achieve trustworthy management plans that are based on numerical modelling and stakeholders participation and acceptance. The effect of some measures was unexpected when modelling their impact on the catchment scale. Management scenarios to reduce riverine nitrogen load were constructed in an actor game (i.e. role-play) for the Genevadsan catchment in southern Sweden. The game included stakeholders for implementation of a loading standard for maximum nitrogen transport at the river mouth. Scenarios were defined after negotiation among involved actors and included changes in agricultural practices, improved wastewater treatment, and establishment of wetlands. Numerical models were used to calculate the nitrogen reduction for different measures in each scenario. An index model (STANK) calculated the root zone leaching of nitrogen from crops at four type farms. This generated input to a catchment scale model (HBV-N) and farm economics. The economic impact of different sets of remedial measures was evaluated for each type farm and then extrapolated to the catchment. The results from scenario modelling show that possible changes in agricultural practices (such as tuning, timing of fertilisation and ploughing, changed crop cultivation) could reduce the nitrogen load to the sea by some 30%, while wetland construction only reduced the original load by some 5%. In the most cost-effective scenario agricultural practices could reduce the riverine load by 86 t per year at a cost of 1.0 million SEK, while constructed wetlands only reduced the load by 14 t per year at a cost of 1.7 million SEK. Thus, changed agricultural practices can be the most effective and less expensive way to reduce nitrogen transport from land to the sea, while constructed wetlands with realistic allocations and sizes may only have small impact on riverine nitrogen transport from land to sea. The overall experience is that actor games and numerical modelling are useful tools in landscape planning for analysing stakeholders' behaviour and the impact of measures to reduce coastal eutrophication. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 64.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Wittgren, H B
    Modelling nitrogen removal in potential wetlands at the catchment scale2002Ingår i: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, Vol. 19, nr 1, s. 63-80Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The reduction of nitrogen fluxes from land to sea is an important task in areas with estuarine or marine eutrophication. Wetland creation has been proposed as one method to reduce nitrogen from streams draining agricultural areas. In this study, a scenario of nitrogen removal in created wetlands was evaluated by mathematical modelling of nitrogen fluxes in a catchment (224 km(2)) in southern Sweden. The scenario was based on topographically realistic siting of 40 potential wetlands with a total area of 0.92 km(2) (0.4% of the catchment area). Nitrogen removal in the wetlands was described with a simple and robust first-order model, which was modified and evaluated against data from eight monitored surface-flow wetlands. However, the modifications gave no substantial support for changing the basic model. For catchment-scale modelling this wetland model was incorporated into a dynamic process-based catchment model (HBV-N). The catchment was then divided to several coupled subbasins, so that the wetland influence on nitrogen load could be estimated separately for each potential wetland. The modelling showed that the 40 potential wetlands would reduce the nitrogen transport to the coast with approximately 6%. Specific removal rates ranged between 57 and 466 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) for the different wetlands, depending on residence time (size and hydraulic loading) and nitrogen concentration in inflow. Due to temperature dependence and seasonal variation in water discharge, significant decrease in nitrogen concentrations mainly occurred during summer periods with low loading. The study illustrates that catchment modelling is a useful method for analysing wetland creation plans, and that wetland creation must cover fairly large areas and be combined with other measures in order to achieve substantial reduction of nitrogen fluxes to coastal waters. Further monitoring of existing wetlands will improve the removal expression and decrease uncertainty. For instance, at present it could not be deducted whether wetlands with low average residence times ( < 2 days) have net removal or net resuspension on an annual basis. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 65.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Wittgren, Hans Bertil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen.
    MODELING THE EFFECTS OF WETLANDS ON REGIONAL NITROGEN TRANSPORT1994Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 23, nr 6, s. 378-386Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Created wetlands have been suggested as a method to reduce nitrogen transport to the Baltic Sea. This paper presents a dynamic conceptual model for simulation of the hypothetical effect of wetlands on nitrogen export to the coastal zone. The study was performed in the Soder-kopingsan drainage basin (882 km(2)) in southeastern Sweden, discharging into the Baltic Sea. An empirically based routine for wetland retention was calibrated separately and incorporated in the model. Scenarios with different location and size of wetlands were analyzed. It was estimated that conversion of 1% (8.8 km(2)) of this basin into wetlands would reduce the nitrogen transport by 10-16% and that more than 5% (45 km(2)) conversion to wetlands is required to reduce the transport by 50%. It was concluded that creation of wetlands should be considered, primarily, downstream from major lakes, in coastal areas, and where the summer load is a significant portion of the annual load. Some further conclusions from the study were that: i) the net reduction of nitrogen transport per unit area of wetland decreases with increasing total area of wetlands in a drainage basin; ii) the wetland retention efficiency obtained in studies of individual wetlands can not be extrapolated in a linear fashion to estimate the net reduction of nitrogen transport at the mouth of a whole drainage basin; iii) the seasonal hydrological and hydrochemical dynamics are of fundamental importance for wetland retention efficiency, which complicates comparison and extrapolation of results from one region to another.

  • 66. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.
    et al.
    Willems, P.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Beecham, S.
    Pathirana, A.
    Gregersen, I. Bulow
    Madsen, H.
    Nguyen, V. -T-V
    Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review2013Ingår i: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 68, nr 1, s. 16-28Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.

  • 67.
    Arneborg, Lars
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Lensu, Mikko
    Ljungman, Olof
    Mattsson, Johan
    Oil drift modeling in pack ice - Sensitivity to oil-in-ice parameters2017Ingår i: Ocean Engineering, ISSN 0029-8018, E-ISSN 1873-5258, Vol. 144, s. 340-350Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 68.
    Arneborg, Lars
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Jansson, Par
    Staalstrom, Andre
    Broström, Göran
    Tidal Energy Loss, Internal Tide Radiation, and Local Dissipation for Two-Layer Tidal Flow over a Sill2017Ingår i: Journal of Physical Oceanography, ISSN 0022-3670, E-ISSN 1520-0485, Vol. 47, nr 7, s. 1521-1538Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 69.
    Arnér, Erik
    SMHI.
    Simulering av vårflöden med HBV-modellen1991Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    För att förbättra HBV-modellens snörutin, och i synnerhet dess prognoser över vårflodens start, prövas en graddagmetod som använder sig av dygnets extremtemperaturer för att beräkna snöackumulation och snösmältning. Temperaturen under dygnet antas variera linjärt mellan maximum- och minimumtemperaturen, och nederbörden fördelas på regn och snö i förhållande till den tid som temperaturen varit över respektive under en tröskeltemperatur. Snöackumulering och snösmältning beräknas separat under de tidssteg då tröskeltemperaturen ligger inom dygnets temperaturintervall. Resultaten från simuleringarna jämförs med resultaten från den ursprungliga HBV-modellen, vilken endast använder dygnsmedeltempcraturen. Sex svenska avrinningsområden med varierande storlek och klimat undersöks, och sammanlagt 88 år simuleras och jämförs.

    Det konstateras att den nya modellen ger något bättre simulering av flödet vid vårflodens start för de undersökta områdena, men att den samtidigt ger något sämre värden på den förklarade variansen, R2-värdet. Detta resultat är inte generellt för alla områdena, men sammantaget bedöms det att de båda modellerna är i stort sett likvärdiga.

    Återfrysningsfaktrns betydelse i den nya modellen prövas i två små områden för att se om dess storlek har någon inverkan på resultatet. Den varieras stegvis från 0.00 upp till 0.21, och för varje steg kalibreras de andra snöparametrarna om. Det konstateras att det värde som återfrysningsfaktorm  har kan ha en viss betydelse, men det viktigaste är att den finns så att snön är torr då smältningen börjar på våren. Återfrysningens storlek kan till en del regleras av andra parametrar.

    I ett område undersöks den roll som kvaliten på temperaturdata har i de båda modellerna, genom att temperaturdata från en klimatstation i taget används. Indata från tre olika stationer används och för varje station kalibreras          snöparametrarna om. Resultaten visar att simuleringsresultaten förändras ungefär lika mycket då temperaturstation byts som då man byter modell. De indikerar också att den nya modellen är mer beroende av representativa temperaturdata än den vanliga HBV-modellen.

    Den automatiska kalibreringsmetoden utvecklad av Harlin 1991 har använts genomgående i detta arbete, och totalt har nästan 50 kalibreringar utförts. Erfarenheterna från denna nya metod är goda.

    Rapporten innehåller också en beskrivning av HBV-modellen och en litteraturgenomgång inom området snömodellering.

  • 70. ASKNE, J
    et al.
    LEPPARANTA, M
    Thompson, Thomas
    SMHI.
    THE BOTHNIAN EXPERIMENT IN PREPARATION FOR ERS-1, 1988 (BEPERS-88) - AN OVERVIEW1992Ingår i: International Journal of Remote Sensing, ISSN 0143-1161, E-ISSN 1366-5901, Vol. 13, nr 13, s. 2377-2398Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    BEPERS-88 was an extensive field campaign on the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) in sea ice remote sensing in the Baltic Sea. This experiment was performed in order to study the possibilities of using the ERS-1 satellite SAR (and radar altimeter) in connection with the brackish ice in the Baltic Sea. The Canada Centre for Remote Sensing CV-580 C/X-band SAR was flown and an extensive validation programme was carried out. The data have been used for SAR image analysis, backscatter investigations, geophysical validation of SAR over sea ice, and evaluation of the potentials of SAR in operational ice information services. The results indicate that SAR can be used to discriminate between ice and open water, classify ice types into three categories, quantify ice ridging intensity, and determine the ice drift. As an operational tool SAR is expected to be an excellent complement to NOAA imagery and ground truth.

  • 71.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    On the variability of Baltic Sea deepwater mixing1998Ingår i: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, Vol. 103, nr C10, s. 21667-21682Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Historical oceanographic data from the period 1964-1997 from two deep subbasins (the Gotland Deep and the Landsort Deep) in the Baltic Sea have been analyzed, by using a budget method on stagnant periods, with respect to vertical diffusion and vertical energy flux density in the deep water. It was found that the rate of deepwater mixing varied with the seasons, with higher rates in fall and winter compared to spring and summer. Further, according to the analyzed data, the downward flux density of energy available for vertical diffusion decreased with increasing depth in the Gotland Deep. In the Landsort Deep, however, the flux density increased somewhat, probably because of topographic concentration of the energy, before decreasing toward the bottom. Moreover, the vertical energy flux densities were compared with the expected flux density from the local wind. It is proposed that in the Gotland Deep, which is outside the coastal boundary layer, the observed deepwater mixing is dominated by the energy input from the wind via inertial currents and internal waves. In the Landsort Deep, however, which is within the coastal boundary layer, the expected flux density of energy from the local wind cannot explain the observed rate of work against the buoyancy forces. It is proposed that the active coastal boundary layer plays a central role in the transfer of energy to mixing processes in the deep water.

  • 72.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Wind-driven internal waves and Langmuir circulations in a numerical ocean model of the southern Baltic Sea2002Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 107, nr C11, artikel-id 3204Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    [1] A one-dimensional numerical ocean model of the southern Baltic Sea is used to investigate suitable parameterizations of unresolved turbulence and compare with available observations. The turbulence model is a k-epsilon model that includes extra source terms P-IW and P-LC of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) due to unresolved, breaking internal waves and Langmuir circulations, respectively. As tides are negligible in the Baltic Sea, topographic generation of internal wave energy (IWE) is neglected. Instead, the energy for deepwater mixing in the Baltic Sea is provided by the wind. At each level the source term P-IW is assumed to be related to a vertically integrated pool of IWE, E-0, and the buoyancy frequency N at the same level, according to P-IW (z) proportional to E0Ndelta (z). This results in vertical profiles of epsilon (the dissipation rate of TKE) and K-h (the eddy diffusivity) according to epsilon proportional to N-delta and K-h proportional to Ndelta-2 below the main pycnocline. Earlier observations are inconclusive as to the proper value of delta, and here a range of values of delta is tested in hundreds of 10-year simulations of the southern Baltic Sea. It is concluded that delta = 1.0 +/- 0.3 and that a mean energy flux density to the internal wave field of about (0.9 +/- 0.3) x 10(-3) W m(-2) is needed to explain the observed salinity field. In addition, a simple wind-dependent formulation of the energy flux to the internal wave field is tested, which has some success in describing the short- and long-term variability of the deepwater turbulence. The model suggests that similar to16% of the energy supplied to the surface layer by the wind is used for deepwater mixing. Finally, it is also shown that Langmuir circulations are important to include when modeling the oceanic boundary layer. A simple parameterization of Langmuir circulations is tuned against large-eddy simulation data and verified for the Baltic Sea.

  • 73.
    Axell, Lars
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Application of 3-D ensemble variational data assimilation to a Baltic Sea reanalysis 1989-20132016Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 68, artikel-id 24220Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A 3-D ensemble variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation method has been implemented and tested for oceanographic data assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea ice concentration (SIC), and salinity and temperature profiles. To damp spurious long-range correlations in the ensemble statistics, horizontal and vertical localisation was implemented using empirical orthogonal functions. The results show that the 3DEnVar method is indeed possible to use in oceanographic data assimilation. So far, only a seasonally dependent ensemble has been used, based on historical model simulations. Near-surface experiments showed that the ensemble statistics gave inhomogeneous and anisotropic horizontal structure functions, and assimilation of real SST and SIC fields gave smooth, realistic increment fields. The implementation was multivariate, and results showed that the cross-correlations between variables work in an intuitive way, for example, decreasing SST where SIC was increased and vice versa. The profile data assimilation also gave good results. The results from a 25-year reanalysis showed that the vertical salinity and temperature structure were significantly improved, compared to both dependent and independent data.

  • 74.
    Axell, Lars
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Ljungman, Olof
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    A One-Equation Turbulence Model for Geophysical Applications: Comparison with Data and the k - epsilon Model2001Ingår i: Environmental Fluid Mechanics, ISSN 1567-7419, E-ISSN 1573-1510, Vol. 1, nr 1, s. 71-106Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A one-equation turbulence model is presented, in which the turbulent kinetic energy k is calculated with a transport equation whereas the turbulent length scale l is calculated with an algebraic expression. The value of l depends on the local stratification and reduces to the classical kappa vertical bar z vertical bar scaling for unstratified flows near a wall, where vertical bar z vertical bar is the distance to the wall. The length scale decreases during stable stratification, and increases for unstable stratification compared to the neutral case. In the limit of strong stable stratification, the so-called buoyancy length scale proportional to k(1/2)N(-1) is obtained, where N is the buoyancy frequency. The length scale formulation introduces a single model parameter which is calibrated against experimental data. The model is verified extensively against laboratory measurements and oceanic data, and comparisons are made with the two-equation k-epsilon model. It is shown that the performance of the proposed k model is almost identical to that of the k-epsilon model. In addition, the stability functions of Launder are revisited and adjusted to obtain better agreement with recent data.

  • 75. Bailey, Helen
    et al.
    Fossette, Sabrina
    Bograd, Steven J.
    Shillinger, George L.
    Swithenbank, Alan M.
    Georges, Jean-Yves
    Gaspar, Philippe
    Strömberg, Patrik
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Paladino, Frank V.
    Spotila, James R.
    Block, Barbara A.
    Hays, Graeme C.
    Movement Patterns for a Critically Endangered Species, the Leatherback Turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), Linked to Foraging Success and Population Status2012Ingår i: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 7, nr 5, artikel-id e36401Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Foraging success for pelagic vertebrates may be revealed by horizontal and vertical movement patterns. We show markedly different patterns for leatherback turtles in the North Atlantic versus Eastern Pacific, which feed on gelatinous zooplankton that are only occasionally found in high densities. In the Atlantic, travel speed was characterized by two modes, indicative of high foraging success at low speeds (<15 km d(-1)) and transit at high speeds (20-45 km d(-1)). Only a single mode was evident in the Pacific, which occurred at speeds of 21 km d(-1) indicative of transit. The mean dive depth was more variable in relation to latitude but closer to the mean annual depth of the thermocline and nutricline for North Atlantic than Eastern Pacific turtles. The most parsimonious explanation for these findings is that Eastern Pacific turtles rarely achieve high foraging success. This is the first support for foraging behaviour differences between populations of this critically endangered species and suggests that longer periods searching for prey may be hindering population recovery in the Pacific while aiding population maintenance in the Atlantic.

  • 76. Bal, S.
    et al.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Spangehl, T.
    Cubasch, U.
    On the robustness of the solar cycle signal in the Pacific region2011Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 38, artikel-id L14809Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The potential role of the stratosphere for the 11-year solar cycle signal in the Pacific region is investigated by idealized simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The model includes a detailed representation of the stratosphere and accounts for changes in stratospheric heating rates from prescribed time dependent variations of ozone and spectrally high resolved solar irradiance. Three transient simulations are performed spanning 21 solar cycles each. The simulations use slightly different ozone perturbations representing uncertainties of solar induced ozone variations. The model reproduces the main features of the 20th century observed solar response. A persistent mean sea level pressure response to solar forcing is found for the eastern North Pacific extending over North America. Moreover, there is evidence for a La Nina-like response assigned to solar maximum conditions with below normal SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific, reduced equatorial precipitation, enhanced off-equatorial precipitation and an El Nino-like response a couple of years later, thus confirming the response to solar forcing at the surface seen in earlier studies. The amplitude of the solar signal in the Pacific region depends to a great extent on the choice of the centennial period averaged. Citation: Bal, S., S. Schimanke, T. Spangehl, and U. Cubasch (2011), On the robustness of the solar cycle signal in the Pacific region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14809, doi:10.1029/2011GL047964.

  • 77. Bal, Sourabh
    et al.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Spangehl, Thomas
    Cubasch, Ulrich
    Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations2018Ingår i: Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences, ISSN 0253-4126, E-ISSN 0973-774X, Vol. 127, nr 5, artikel-id 68Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 78. Bal, Sourabh
    et al.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Spangehl, Thomas
    Cubasch, Ulrich
    Variable influence on the equatorial troposphere associated with SSW using ERA-Interim2017Ingår i: Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences, ISSN 0253-4126, E-ISSN 0973-774X, Vol. 126, nr 2, artikel-id UNSP 19Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 79. Bartolino, Valerio
    et al.
    Tian, Huidong
    Bergstrom, Ulf
    Jounela, Pekka
    Aro, Eero
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Cardinale, Massimiliano
    Bland, Barbara
    Casini, Michele
    Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population2017Ingår i: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, nr 2, artikel-id e0172004Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 80. Bauer, Barbara
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Casini, Michele
    Hoff, Ayoe
    Margonski, Piotr
    Orio, Alessandro
    Saraiva, Sofia
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Steenbeek, Jeroen
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries: a model case study2018Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 75, nr 4, s. 1306-1317Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 81. Bauer, Barbara
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Casini, Michele
    Hoff, Ayoe
    Margonski, Piotr
    Orio, Alessandro
    Saraiva, Sofia
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Steenbeek, Jeroen
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries: a model case study (vol 75, pg 1155, 2018)2018Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 75, nr 3, s. 1155-1155Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 82. Bengtsson, L.
    et al.
    Grahn, L
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hydrological function of a thin extensive green roof in southern Sweden2005Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 36, nr 3, s. 259-268Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The runoff from and the water balance of a thin extensive green roof with sedum-moss have been studied. The soil cover is about 3 cm underlain by a thin drainage layer. The water balance is determined on a monthly basis. The runoff from the green roof is much reduced compared to runoff from hard roofs because of evapotranspiration. The annual runoff is rather close to that of natural river basins. Although most rainy days there is no or little runoff from the roof, the highest observed daily runoff values are close to the daily rainfall. Runoff is initiated when the soil is at field capacity, which for the studied roof corresponds to 9 mm storage. After that, on a not very short time basis, the runoff equals the precipitation. The reduction of the daily runoff can be described in a simple way knowing the daily precipitation, potential evaporation and storage capacity of the green roof.

  • 83. Bennartz, R
    et al.
    Michelson, Daniel
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Correlation of precipitation estimates from spaceborne passive microwave sensors and weather radar imagery for BALTEX PIDCAP2003Ingår i: International Journal of Remote Sensing, ISSN 0143-1161, E-ISSN 1366-5901, Vol. 24, nr 4, s. 723-739Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes the evaluation of a-combined radar and passive microwave dataset obtained during the PIDCAP study of the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX), where three-dimensional volumes of data from the Gotland radar were obtained timed according to the overpasses of the DMSP-satellites F10 and F13. Both satellites are 'equipped with a Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), suitable for precipitation retrievals. We compare radar precipitation estimates, convolved to the native resolution of the SSM/I, at different altitudes with polarization and scattering indices (S-85) derived from the SSM/I. For all 22 overpasses investigated here radar precipitation estimates at 3-4 km altitude correlate well with the SSM/I-derived S-85 (average correlation coefficient = 0.70). Although more directly linked to surface precipitation, polarization indices have been found to be less correlated with radar data, due to limitations inherent in the remote sensing of precipitation at higher latitudes. A stratification of the dataset into frontal and convective events revealed significant variations in these relationships for different types of precipitation events, thus reflecting different cloud microphysical processes associated with precipitation initialization. The relationship between S85 and radar rain estimates at higher altitudes varies considerably for different convective and frontal events. The sensitivity of S-85 to radar-derived rain rate ranges from 3.1 K mm(-1) h(-1) for a strong convective event to about 25 K mm(-1) h(-1) for the frontal and about 70 mm(-1) h(-1) for the small-scale convective events. For extrapolated surface precipitation estimates, sensitivities decrease to 14 mm(-1) h(-1) and 25 mm(-1) h(-1) for frontal and small-scale convective precipitation, respectively.

  • 84. Berdalet, Elisa
    et al.
    Kudela, Raphael
    Urban, Ed
    Enevoldsen, Henrik
    Banas, Neil S.
    Bresnan, Eileen
    Burford, Michele
    Davidson, Keith
    Gobler, Christopher J.
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Lim, Po Teen
    Mackenzie, Lincoln
    Montresor, Marina
    Trainer, Vera L.
    Usup, Gires
    Yin, Kedong
    GlobalHAB A New Program to Promote International Research, Observations, and Modeling of Harmful Algal Blooms in Aquatic Systems2017Ingår i: Oceanography, ISSN 1042-8275, Vol. 30, nr 1, s. 70-81Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 85.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Model Consistent Pseudo-Observations of Precipitation and Their Use for Bias Correcting Regional Climate Models2015Ingår i: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 3, nr 1, s. 118-132Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Lack of suitable observational data makes bias correction of high space and time resolution regional climate models (RCM) problematic. We present a method to construct pseudo-observational precipitation data by merging a large scale constrained RCM reanalysis downscaling simulation with coarse time and space resolution observations. The large scale constraint synchronizes the inner domain solution to the driving reanalysis model, such that the simulated weather is similar to observations on a monthly time scale. Monthly biases for each single month are corrected to the corresponding month of the observational data, and applied to the finer temporal resolution of the RCM. A low-pass filter is applied to the correction factors to retain the small spatial scale information of the RCM. The method is applied to a 12.5 km RCM simulation and proven successful in producing a reliable pseudo-observational data set. Furthermore, the constructed data set is applied as reference in a quantile mapping bias correction, and is proven skillful in retaining small scale information of the RCM, while still correcting the large scale spatial bias. The proposed method allows bias correction of high resolution model simulations without changing the fine scale spatial features, i.e., retaining the very information required by many impact models.

  • 86.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Christensen, Ole B.
    Klehmet, Katharina
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lenderink, Geert
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Teichmann, Claas
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11 degrees ensemble at an hourly resolution2019Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 19, nr 4, s. 957-971Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 87.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Near-real-time adjusted reanalysis forcing data for hydrology2018Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, nr 2, s. 989-1000Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 88.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Norin, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Creation of a high resolution precipitation data set by merging gridded gauge data and radar observations for Sweden2016Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 541, s. 6-13Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 89.
    Bergstrand, Marie
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Asp, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Nationwide hydrological statistics for Sweden with high resolution using the hydrological model S-HYPE2014Ingår i: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 45, nr 3, s. 349-356Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A first version of nationally covering hydrological statistics for Sweden based on the S-HYPE hydrological model for the period 1961-2010 is described. A key feature of the proposed method is that observed data are used as input wherever such data are available, and the model is used for interpolation in between stations. Short observation records are automatically extended by the use of the model. High flow statistics typically differed by about +/- 10% from observations. The corresponding number for low flow was about +/- 30%. High flow peaks were usually simulated slightly too low whereas low flows were too high. In a relative sense low flows were more uncertain than high flows. The mean flow was relatively certain. The annual maximum values were fitted to a Gumbel distribution, by the method of moments, for each subbasin. Flood statistics were then calculated up to a return period of 50 years. According to a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, less than 1% of the fitted distributions were rejected. Most rejections occurred in regulated systems, due to difficulties in simulating regulation strategies, but also due to uncertainties in the precipitation input in the mountainous region. Results at small scale are very uncertain. The proposed method is a cost-effective way of calculating hydrological statistics with high spatial resolution.

  • 90.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Parametervärden för HBV-modellen i Sverige: Erfarenheter från modellkalibreringar under perioden 1975-19891990Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    HBV-modellen utvecklades vid SMHI i början av 1970-talet och har sedan dess funnit ett stort antal tillämpningar i landet. Inledningsvis var intresset mest knutet till hydrologisk prognosering åt vattenkraftindustrin och översvämningsvarningar till allmänheten, men under senare år har modellen fått spela en allt större roll för beräkning av dimensionerande flöden. Modellen finns i ett antal versioner, HBV-3, HBV-6 och HBV-TL samt ytterligare några för speciella tillämpningar. Dessutom finns ett antal versioner av modellen vid institutioner utanför SMHI såväl i Sverigesom utomlands.

  • 91.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    PRINCIPLES AND CONFIDENCE IN HYDROLOGICAL MODELING1991Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 22, nr 2, s. 123-136Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    General principles in development and application of hydrological models are discussed and related to the confidence in the results. The presentation is mainly based on the experience from the work with the HBV and PULSE models at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute between 1971 and 1990 but has also been influenced by other modelling work. It covers a discussion on the optimal complexity of models, use of observations, calibration, control and sensitivity analysis. Special attention is given to the uncertainties encountered when using hydrological models for the simulation of extreme floods and long-term scenario simulations. Finally a few ethical problems in modelling are mentioned.

  • 92.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Gustafson, Arne
    SIMULATION OF RUNOFF AND NITROGEN LEACHING FROM 2 FIELDS IN SOUTHERN SWEDEN1987Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 32, nr 2, s. 191-205Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 93.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hydrology of the Baltic Basin: Inflow of fresh water from rivers and land for the period 1950–19901993Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    A data base of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The data base covers the period 1950 - 1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries.

    The main features of the data base are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short term variabilities are analysed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier data base by Mikulski (1982) is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921 - 1990.

    It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981 - 1990 is the wettest in 70 years. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.

  • 94.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    RIVER RUNOFF TO THE BALTIC SEA - 1950-19901994Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 23, nr 4-5, s. 280-287Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A database of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The database covers the period 1950-1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries. The main features of the database are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short-term variabilities are analyzed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier database by Mikulski is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921-1990. It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981-1990 was the wettest in 70 years. Wet years are also found in the 1920s. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.

  • 95.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Pettersson, Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden - assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling2001Ingår i: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 16, nr 2, s. 101-112Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish regional climate modelling programme, SWECLIM, started in 1997 with the main goal being to produce regional climate change scenarios over the Nordic area on a time scale of 50 to 100 yr. An additional goal is to produce water resources scenarios with a focus on hydropower production, dam safety, water supply and environmental aspects of water resources. The scenarios are produced by a combination of global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models and hydrological runoff models. The GCM simulations used thus far are 10 yr time slices from 2 different GCMs, UKMO HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre and the ECHAM4/OPYC3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The regional climate model is a modified version of the international HIRLAM forecast model and the hydrological model is the HBV model developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Scenarios of river runoff have been simulated for 6 selected basins covering the major climate regions in Sweden. Changes in runoff totals, runoff regimes and extreme values have been analysed with a focus on the uncertainties introduced by the choice of GCM and routines for estimation of evapotranspiration in the hydrological model. It is further shown how these choices affect the statistical return periods of future extremes in a design situation.

  • 96.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Ehlin, Ulf
    SMHI.
    Olsson, Per-Eric
    VASO.
    Riktlinjer och praxis vid dimensionering av utskov och dammar i USA: Rapport från en studieresa i oktober 19851986Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Under oktober månad 1985 företog vi en studieresa i USA på uppdrag av Flödeskommittén. Avsikten var att inhämta upplysningar om de riktlinjer, som tillämpas i USA för bestämning av dimensionerade flöden för utskov vid kraftverk och regleringsdammar. Inte minst viktigt var att genom personliga samtal med meteorologer, hydrologer och tekniker få ett grepp om metodernas fördelar och svagheter samt vilka subjektiva bedömningar, som påverkar beräkningsresultaten. Vi kom även att diskutera frågor om hydrologiska prognoser och datainsamlingssystem. 

  • 97.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Abstract to "On the scale problem in hydrological modelling" [Journal of Hydrology 211 (1998) 253-265]1999Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 217, nr 3-4, s. 284-284Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 98.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    On the scale problem in hydrological modelling1998Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 211, nr 1-4, s. 253-265Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The problem of scales and particularly the modelling of macro or continental scale catchments in hydrology is addressed. It is concluded that the magnitude of the scale problem is related to the specific hydrologic problem to be solved and to the scientific approach and perspective of the modeller. A distributed modelling approach, based on variability parameters, is suggested for modelling of soil moisture dynamics and runoff generation. It is shown that the parameters of such an approach are relatively stable over a wide range of scales. An example of the application of a standard Version of the Swedish HBV hydrological model to the continental scale catchment of the Baltic Sea is shown and its usefulness is discussed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 99.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Harlin, Joakim
    SMHI.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    SPILLWAY DESIGN FLOODS IN SWEDEN .1. NEW GUIDELINES1992Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 37, nr 5, s. 505-519Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The new Swedish guidelines for the estimation of design floods for dams and spillways are presented, with emphasis on high-hazard dams. The method is based on a set of regional design precipitation sequences, rescaled for basin area, season and elevation above sea level, and a full hydrological model. A reservoir operation strategy is also a fundamental component of the guidelines. The most critical combination of flood generating factors is searched by systematically inserting the design precipitation sequence into a ten year climatological record, where the initial snowpack has been replaced by a statistical 30-year snowpack. The new guidelines are applicable to single reservoir systems as well as more complex hydroelectric schemes, and cover snowmelt floods, rain floods and combinations of the two. In order to study the probabilities of the computed floods and to avoid regional inconsistencies, extensive comparisons with observed floods and frequency analyses have been carried out.

  • 100.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Interpretation of runoff processes in hydrological modelling experience from the HBV approach2015Ingår i: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 29, nr 16, s. 3535-3545Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The process of development and application of the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning hydrological model over a time period of more than 40years is reviewed and discussed. Emphasis is on the early modelling strategy and physical considerations based on contemporary research on runoff formation processes in the drainage basin. This includes areal considerations on the catchment scale, soil moisture and evapotranspiration and storages and discharge as represented by the response function of the model. The introduction of the concept of dynamic recharge and discharge areas is also addressed as well as the modelling of snow accumulation and melt. Some operational international experiences are also addressed. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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