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  • 51. Bengtsson, L.
    et al.
    Grahn, L
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hydrological function of a thin extensive green roof in southern Sweden2005Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 36, nr 3, s. 259-268Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The runoff from and the water balance of a thin extensive green roof with sedum-moss have been studied. The soil cover is about 3 cm underlain by a thin drainage layer. The water balance is determined on a monthly basis. The runoff from the green roof is much reduced compared to runoff from hard roofs because of evapotranspiration. The annual runoff is rather close to that of natural river basins. Although most rainy days there is no or little runoff from the roof, the highest observed daily runoff values are close to the daily rainfall. Runoff is initiated when the soil is at field capacity, which for the studied roof corresponds to 9 mm storage. After that, on a not very short time basis, the runoff equals the precipitation. The reduction of the daily runoff can be described in a simple way knowing the daily precipitation, potential evaporation and storage capacity of the green roof.

  • 52.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Model Consistent Pseudo-Observations of Precipitation and Their Use for Bias Correcting Regional Climate Models2015Ingår i: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 3, nr 1, s. 118-132Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Lack of suitable observational data makes bias correction of high space and time resolution regional climate models (RCM) problematic. We present a method to construct pseudo-observational precipitation data by merging a large scale constrained RCM reanalysis downscaling simulation with coarse time and space resolution observations. The large scale constraint synchronizes the inner domain solution to the driving reanalysis model, such that the simulated weather is similar to observations on a monthly time scale. Monthly biases for each single month are corrected to the corresponding month of the observational data, and applied to the finer temporal resolution of the RCM. A low-pass filter is applied to the correction factors to retain the small spatial scale information of the RCM. The method is applied to a 12.5 km RCM simulation and proven successful in producing a reliable pseudo-observational data set. Furthermore, the constructed data set is applied as reference in a quantile mapping bias correction, and is proven skillful in retaining small scale information of the RCM, while still correcting the large scale spatial bias. The proposed method allows bias correction of high resolution model simulations without changing the fine scale spatial features, i.e., retaining the very information required by many impact models.

  • 53.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Christensen, Ole B.
    Klehmet, Katharina
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lenderink, Geert
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Teichmann, Claas
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11 degrees ensemble at an hourly resolution2019Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 19, nr 4, s. 957-971Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 54.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    On the effects of constraining atmospheric circulation in a coupled atmosphere-ocean Arctic regional climate model2016Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, nr 11-12, s. 3499-3515Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 55.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Near-real-time adjusted reanalysis forcing data for hydrology2018Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, nr 2, s. 989-1000Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 56.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Norin, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Creation of a high resolution precipitation data set by merging gridded gauge data and radar observations for Sweden2016Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 541, s. 6-13Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 57.
    Bergstrand, Marie
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Asp, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Nationwide hydrological statistics for Sweden with high resolution using the hydrological model S-HYPE2014Ingår i: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 45, nr 3, s. 349-356Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A first version of nationally covering hydrological statistics for Sweden based on the S-HYPE hydrological model for the period 1961-2010 is described. A key feature of the proposed method is that observed data are used as input wherever such data are available, and the model is used for interpolation in between stations. Short observation records are automatically extended by the use of the model. High flow statistics typically differed by about +/- 10% from observations. The corresponding number for low flow was about +/- 30%. High flow peaks were usually simulated slightly too low whereas low flows were too high. In a relative sense low flows were more uncertain than high flows. The mean flow was relatively certain. The annual maximum values were fitted to a Gumbel distribution, by the method of moments, for each subbasin. Flood statistics were then calculated up to a return period of 50 years. According to a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, less than 1% of the fitted distributions were rejected. Most rejections occurred in regulated systems, due to difficulties in simulating regulation strategies, but also due to uncertainties in the precipitation input in the mountainous region. Results at small scale are very uncertain. The proposed method is a cost-effective way of calculating hydrological statistics with high spatial resolution.

  • 58.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Parametervärden för HBV-modellen i Sverige: Erfarenheter från modellkalibreringar under perioden 1975-19891990Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    HBV-modellen utvecklades vid SMHI i början av 1970-talet och har sedan dess funnit ett stort antal tillämpningar i landet. Inledningsvis var intresset mest knutet till hydrologisk prognosering åt vattenkraftindustrin och översvämningsvarningar till allmänheten, men under senare år har modellen fått spela en allt större roll för beräkning av dimensionerande flöden. Modellen finns i ett antal versioner, HBV-3, HBV-6 och HBV-TL samt ytterligare några för speciella tillämpningar. Dessutom finns ett antal versioner av modellen vid institutioner utanför SMHI såväl i Sverigesom utomlands.

  • 59.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    PRINCIPLES AND CONFIDENCE IN HYDROLOGICAL MODELING1991Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 22, nr 2, s. 123-136Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    General principles in development and application of hydrological models are discussed and related to the confidence in the results. The presentation is mainly based on the experience from the work with the HBV and PULSE models at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute between 1971 and 1990 but has also been influenced by other modelling work. It covers a discussion on the optimal complexity of models, use of observations, calibration, control and sensitivity analysis. Special attention is given to the uncertainties encountered when using hydrological models for the simulation of extreme floods and long-term scenario simulations. Finally a few ethical problems in modelling are mentioned.

  • 60.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    The HBV model – its structure and applications1992Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 61.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Utveckling och tillämpning av en digital avrinningsmodell2015Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 62.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Andréasson, Johan
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Use of Hydrological Data and Climate Scenarios for Climate Change Detection in the Baltic Basin2004Ingår i: Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, Vol. 4, s. 158-159Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 63.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Gustafson, Arne
    SIMULATION OF RUNOFF AND NITROGEN LEACHING FROM 2 FIELDS IN SOUTHERN SWEDEN1987Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 32, nr 2, s. 191-205Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 64.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hydrology of the Baltic Basin: Inflow of fresh water from rivers and land for the period 1950–19901993Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    A data base of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The data base covers the period 1950 - 1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries.

    The main features of the data base are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short term variabilities are analysed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier data base by Mikulski (1982) is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921 - 1990.

    It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981 - 1990 is the wettest in 70 years. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.

  • 65.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    RIVER RUNOFF TO THE BALTIC SEA - 1950-19901994Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 23, nr 4-5, s. 280-287Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A database of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The database covers the period 1950-1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries. The main features of the database are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short-term variabilities are analyzed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier database by Mikulski is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921-1990. It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981-1990 was the wettest in 70 years. Wet years are also found in the 1920s. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.

  • 66.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Pettersson, Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden - assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling2001Ingår i: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 16, nr 2, s. 101-112Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish regional climate modelling programme, SWECLIM, started in 1997 with the main goal being to produce regional climate change scenarios over the Nordic area on a time scale of 50 to 100 yr. An additional goal is to produce water resources scenarios with a focus on hydropower production, dam safety, water supply and environmental aspects of water resources. The scenarios are produced by a combination of global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models and hydrological runoff models. The GCM simulations used thus far are 10 yr time slices from 2 different GCMs, UKMO HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre and the ECHAM4/OPYC3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The regional climate model is a modified version of the international HIRLAM forecast model and the hydrological model is the HBV model developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Scenarios of river runoff have been simulated for 6 selected basins covering the major climate regions in Sweden. Changes in runoff totals, runoff regimes and extreme values have been analysed with a focus on the uncertainties introduced by the choice of GCM and routines for estimation of evapotranspiration in the hydrological model. It is further shown how these choices affect the statistical return periods of future extremes in a design situation.

  • 67.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Ehlin, Ulf
    SMHI.
    Olsson, Per-Eric
    VASO.
    Riktlinjer och praxis vid dimensionering av utskov och dammar i USA: Rapport från en studieresa i oktober 19851986Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Under oktober månad 1985 företog vi en studieresa i USA på uppdrag av Flödeskommittén. Avsikten var att inhämta upplysningar om de riktlinjer, som tillämpas i USA för bestämning av dimensionerade flöden för utskov vid kraftverk och regleringsdammar. Inte minst viktigt var att genom personliga samtal med meteorologer, hydrologer och tekniker få ett grepp om metodernas fördelar och svagheter samt vilka subjektiva bedömningar, som påverkar beräkningsresultaten. Vi kom även att diskutera frågor om hydrologiska prognoser och datainsamlingssystem. 

  • 68.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Abstract to "On the scale problem in hydrological modelling" [Journal of Hydrology 211 (1998) 253-265]1999Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 217, nr 3-4, s. 284-284Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 69.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    On the scale problem in hydrological modelling1998Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 211, nr 1-4, s. 253-265Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The problem of scales and particularly the modelling of macro or continental scale catchments in hydrology is addressed. It is concluded that the magnitude of the scale problem is related to the specific hydrologic problem to be solved and to the scientific approach and perspective of the modeller. A distributed modelling approach, based on variability parameters, is suggested for modelling of soil moisture dynamics and runoff generation. It is shown that the parameters of such an approach are relatively stable over a wide range of scales. An example of the application of a standard Version of the Swedish HBV hydrological model to the continental scale catchment of the Baltic Sea is shown and its usefulness is discussed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 70.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Harlin, Joakim
    SMHI.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    SPILLWAY DESIGN FLOODS IN SWEDEN .1. NEW GUIDELINES1992Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 37, nr 5, s. 505-519Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The new Swedish guidelines for the estimation of design floods for dams and spillways are presented, with emphasis on high-hazard dams. The method is based on a set of regional design precipitation sequences, rescaled for basin area, season and elevation above sea level, and a full hydrological model. A reservoir operation strategy is also a fundamental component of the guidelines. The most critical combination of flood generating factors is searched by systematically inserting the design precipitation sequence into a ten year climatological record, where the initial snowpack has been replaced by a statistical 30-year snowpack. The new guidelines are applicable to single reservoir systems as well as more complex hydroelectric schemes, and cover snowmelt floods, rain floods and combinations of the two. In order to study the probabilities of the computed floods and to avoid regional inconsistencies, extensive comparisons with observed floods and frequency analyses have been carried out.

  • 71.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Interpretation of runoff processes in hydrological modelling experience from the HBV approach2015Ingår i: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 29, nr 16, s. 3535-3545Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The process of development and application of the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning hydrological model over a time period of more than 40years is reviewed and discussed. Emphasis is on the early modelling strategy and physical considerations based on contemporary research on runoff formation processes in the drainage basin. This includes areal considerations on the catchment scale, soil moisture and evapotranspiration and storages and discharge as represented by the response function of the model. The introduction of the concept of dynamic recharge and discharge areas is also addressed as well as the modelling of snow accumulation and melt. Some operational international experiences are also addressed. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  • 72.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Pettersson, Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Multi-variable parameter estimation to increase confidence in hydrological modelling2002Ingår i: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 16, nr 2, s. 413-421Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The expanding use and increased complexity of hydrological runoff models has given rise to a concern about overparameterization and risks for compensating errors. One proposed way out is the calibration and validation against additional observations, such as snow, soil moisture, groundwater or water quality. A general problem, however, when calibrating the model against more than one variable is the strategy for parameter estimation. The most straightforward method is to calibrate the model components sequentially. Recent results show that in this way the model may be locked up in a parameter setting, which is good enough for one variable but excludes proper simulation of other variables. This is particularly the case for water quality modelling, where a small compromise in terms of runoff simulation may lead to dramatically better simulations of water quality. This calls for an integrated model calibration procedure with a criterion that integrates more aspects on model performance than just river runoff. The use of multi-variable parameter estimation and internal control of the HBV hydrological model is discussed and highlighted by two case studies. The first example is from a forested basin in northern Sweden and the second one is from an agricultural basin in the south of the country. A new calibration strategy, which is integrated rather than sequential, is proposed and tested. It is concluded that comparison of model results with more measurements than only runoff can lead to increased confidence in the physical relevance of the model, and that the new calibration strategy can be useful for further model development. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

  • 73.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Sandén, Per
    SMHI.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Analysis of climate-induced hydrochemical variations in till aquifers1990Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    An investigation of the relations between climatological factors and short term variabilityin groundwater storage and hydrochemistry in till aquifers is performed. The analysis isbased on a simple empirical hydrological model, the PULSE model, and groundwaterrecords from four sites in Sweden.The model proved to be capable of describing the dynamics of groundwater levels ordischarge, and at one of the sites it was possible to describe hydrochemical variations aswell. The application to the remaining three sites illustrated that groundwater chemistryshows a much more complex pattem of variations than does corresponding streamflowin this type of basin. The importance of areal variabilities within the recharge area isdiscussed and illustrated by a distribution of the model into two submodels when applyingit to one of the basins.

  • 74. Bloeschl, Guenter
    et al.
    Hall, Julia
    Parajka, Juraj
    Perdigao, Rui A. P.
    Merz, Bruno
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Aronica, Giuseppe T.
    Bilibashi, Ardian
    Bonacci, Ognjen
    Borga, Marco
    Canjevac, Ivan
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Chirico, Giovanni B.
    Claps, Pierluigi
    Fiala, Kayroly
    Frolova, Natalia
    Gorbachova, Liudmyla
    Gul, Ali
    Hannaford, Jamie
    Harrigan, Shaun
    Kireeva, Maria
    Kiss, Andrea
    Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
    Kohnova, Silvia
    Koskela, Jarkko J.
    Ledvinka, Ondrej
    Macdonald, Neil
    Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
    Mediero, Luis
    Merz, Ralf
    Molnar, Peter
    Montanari, Alberto
    Murphy, Conor
    Osuch, Marzena
    Ovcharuk, Valeryia
    Radevski, Ivan
    Rogger, Magdalena
    Salinas, Jose L.
    Sauquet, Eric
    Sraj, Mojca
    Szolgay, Jan
    Viglione, Alberto
    Volpi, Elena
    Wilson, Donna
    Zaimi, Klodian
    Zivkovic, Nenad
    Changing climate shifts timing of European floods2017Ingår i: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 357, nr 6351, s. 588-590Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 75. Bloeschl, Guenter
    et al.
    Hall, Julia
    Viglione, Alberto
    Perdigao, Rui A. P.
    Parajka, Juraj
    Merz, Bruno
    Lun, David
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Aronica, Giuseppe T.
    Bilibashi, Ardian
    Bohac, Milon
    Bonacci, Ognjen
    Borga, Marco
    Canjevac, Ivan
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Chirico, Giovanni B.
    Claps, Pierluigi
    Frolova, Natalia
    Ganora, Daniele
    Gorbachova, Liudmyla
    Gul, Ali
    Hannaford, Jamie
    Harrigan, Shaun
    Kireeva, Maria
    Kiss, Andrea
    Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
    Kohnova, Silvia
    Koskela, Jarkko J.
    Ledvinka, Ondrej
    Macdonald, Neil
    Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
    Mediero, Luis
    Merz, Ralf
    Molnar, Peter
    Montanari, Alberto
    Murphy, Conor
    Osuch, Marzena
    Ovcharuk, Valeryia
    Radevski, Ivan
    Salinas, Jose L.
    Sauquet, Eric
    Sraj, Mojca
    Szolgay, Jan
    Volpi, Elena
    Wilson, Donna
    Zaimi, Klodian
    Zivkovic, Nenad
    Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods2019Ingår i: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 573, nr 7772, s. 108-+Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

  • 76. Bloeschl, Gunter
    et al.
    Bierkens, Marc F. P.
    Chambel, Antonio
    Cudennec, Christophe
    Destouni, Georgia
    Fiori, Aldo
    Kirchner, James W.
    McDonnell, Jeffrey J.
    Savenije, Hubert H. G.
    Sivapalan, Murugesu
    Stumpp, Christine
    Toth, Elena
    Volpi, Elena
    Carr, Gemma
    Lupton, Claire
    Salinas, Jose
    Szeles, Borbala
    Viglione, Alberto
    Aksoy, Hafzullah
    Allen, Scott T.
    Amin, Anam
    Andreassian, Vazken
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Aryal, Santosh K.
    Baker, Victor
    Bardsley, Earl
    Barendrecht, Marlies H.
    Bartosova, Alena
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Batelaan, Okke
    Berghuijs, Wouter R.
    Beven, Keith
    Blume, Theresa
    Bogaard, Thom
    de Amorim, Pablo Borges
    Boettcher, Michael E.
    Boulet, Gilles
    Breinl, Korbinian
    Brilly, Mitja
    Brocca, Luca
    Buytaert, Wouter
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Castelletti, Andrea
    Chen, Xiaohong
    Chen, Yangbo
    Chen, Yuanfang
    Chifflard, Peter
    Claps, Pierluigi
    Clark, Martyn P.
    Collins, Adrian L.
    Croke, Barry
    Dathe, Annette
    David, Paula C.
    de Barros, Felipe P. J.
    de Rooij, Gerrit
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Driscoll, Jessica M.
    Duethmann, Doris
    Dwivedi, Ravindra
    Eris, Ebru
    Farmer, William H.
    Feiccabrino, James
    Ferguson, Grant
    Ferrari, Ennio
    Ferraris, Stefano
    Fersch, Benjamin
    Finger, David
    Foglia, Laura
    Fowler, Keirnan
    Gartsman, Boris
    Gascoin, Simon
    Gaume, Eric
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Geris, Josie
    Gharari, Shervan
    Gleeson, Tom
    Glendell, Miriam
    Bevacqua, Alena Gonzalez
    Gonzalez-Dugo, Maria P.
    Grimaldi, Salvatore
    Gupta, A. B.
    Guse, Bjoern
    Han, Dawei
    Hannah, David
    Harpold, Adrian
    Haun, Stefan
    Heal, Kate
    Helfricht, Kay
    Herrnegger, Mathew
    Hipsey, Matthew
    Hlavacikova, Hana
    Hohmann, Clara
    Holko, Ladislav
    Hopkinson, Christopher
    Hrachowitz, Markus
    Illangasekare, Tissa H.
    Inam, Azhar
    Innocente, Camyla
    Istanbulluoglu, Erkan
    Jarihani, Ben
    Kalantari, Zahra
    Kalvans, Andis
    Khanal, Sonu
    Khatami, Sina
    Kiesel, Jens
    Kirkby, Mike
    Knoben, Wouter
    Kochanek, Krzysztof
    Kohnova, Silvia
    Kolechkina, Alla
    Krause, Stefan
    Kreamer, David
    Kreibich, Heidi
    Kunstmann, Harald
    Lange, Holger
    Liberato, Margarida L. R.
    Lindquist, Eric
    Link, Timothy
    Liu, Junguo
    Loucks, Daniel Peter
    Luce, Charles
    Mahe, Gil
    Makarieva, Olga
    Malard, Julien
    Mashtayeva, Shamshagul
    Maskey, Shreedhar
    Mas-Pla, Josep
    Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
    Mazzoleni, Maurizio
    Mernild, Sebastian
    Misstear, Bruce Dudley
    Montanari, Alberto
    Mueller-Thomy, Hannes
    Nabizadeh, Alireza
    Nardi, Fernando
    Neale, Christopher
    Nesterova, Nataliia
    Nurtaev, Bakhram
    Odongo, Vincent O.
    Panda, Subhabrata
    Pande, Saket
    Pang, Zhonghe
    Papacharalampous, Georgia
    Perrin, Charles
    Pfister, Laurent
    Pimentel, Rafael
    Polo, Maria J.
    Post, David
    Sierra, Cristina Prieto
    Ramos, Maria-Helena
    Renner, Maik
    Reynolds, Jose Eduardo
    Ridolfi, Elena
    Rigon, Riccardo
    Riva, Monica
    Robertson, David E.
    Rosso, Renzo
    Roy, Tirthankar
    Sa, Joao H. M.
    Salvadori, Gianfausto
    Sandells, Mel
    Schaefli, Bettina
    Schumann, Andreas
    Scolobig, Anna
    Seibert, Jan
    Servat, Eric
    Shafiei, Mojtaba
    Sharma, Ashish
    Sidibe, Moussa
    Sidle, Roy C.
    Skaugen, Thomas
    Smith, Hugh
    Spiessl, Sabine M.
    Stein, Lina
    Steinsland, Ingelin
    Strasser, Ulrich
    Su, Bob
    Szolgay, Jan
    Tarboton, David
    Tauro, Flavia
    Thirel, Guillaume
    Tian, Fuqiang
    Tong, Rui
    Tussupova, Kamshat
    Tyralis, Hristos
    Uijlenhoet, Remko
    van Beek, Rens
    van der Ent, Ruud J.
    van der Ploeg, Martine
    Van Loon, Anne F.
    van Meerveld, Ilja
    van Nooijen, Ronald
    van Oel, Pieter R.
    Vidal, Jean-Philippe
    von Freyberg, Jana
    Vorogushyn, Sergiy
    Wachniew, Przemyslaw
    Wade, Andrew J.
    Ward, Philip
    Westerberg, Ida K.
    White, Christopher
    Wood, Eric F.
    Woods, Ross
    Xu, Zongxue
    Yilmaz, Koray K.
    Zhang, Yongqiang
    Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective2019Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 64, nr 10, s. 1141-1158Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 77.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Carambia, M.
    Goergen, K.
    Kotlarski, S.
    Krahe, P.
    Zappa, M.
    Schaer, C.
    Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections2013Ingår i: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 49, nr 3, s. 1523-1536Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The quantification of uncertainties in projections of climate impacts on river streamflow is highly important for climate adaptation purposes. In this study, we present a methodology to separate uncertainties arising from the climate model (CM), the statistical postprocessing (PP) scheme, and the hydrological model (HM). We analyzed ensemble projections of hydrological changes in the Alpine Rhine (Eastern Switzerland) for the near-term and far-term scenario periods 2024-2050 and 2073-2099 with respect to 1964-1990. For the latter scenario period, the model ensemble projects a decrease of daily mean runoff in summer (-32.2%, range [-45.5% to -8.1%]) and an increase in winter (+41.8%, range [+4.8% to +81.7%]). We applied an analysis of variance model combined with a subsampling procedure to assess the importance of different uncertainty sources. The CMs generally are the dominant source in summer and autumn, whereas, in winter and spring, the uncertainties due to the HMs and the statistical PP gain importance and even partly dominate. In addition, results show that the individual uncertainties from the three components are not additive. Rather, the associated interactions among the CM, the statistical PP scheme, and the HM account for about 5%-40% of the total ensemble uncertainty. The results indicate, in distinction to some previous studies, that none of the investigated uncertainty sources are negligible, and some of the uncertainty is not attributable to individual modeling chain components but rather depends upon interactions. Citation: Bosshard, T., M. Carambia, K. Goergen, S. Kotlarski, P. Krahe, M. Zappa, and C. Schar (2013), Quantifying uncertainty sources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1523-1536, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011533.

  • 78.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Kotlarski, Sven
    Zappa, Massimiliano
    Schaer, Christoph
    Hydrological Climate-Impact Projections for the Rhine River: GCM-RCM Uncertainty and Separate Temperature and Precipitation Effects2014Ingår i: Journal of Hydrometeorology, ISSN 1525-755X, E-ISSN 1525-7541, Vol. 15, nr 2, s. 697-713Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle, with considerable impacts on water resources. Climate-induced changes in the hydrology of the Rhine River (Europe) are of major importance for the riparian countries, as the Rhine River is the most important European waterway, serves as a freshwater supply source, and is prone to floods and droughts. Here regional climate model data from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is used to drive the hydrological model Precipitation-Runoff-Evapotranspiration-Hydrotope (PREVAH) and to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology in the Rhine basin. Results suggest increases in monthly mean runoff during winter and decreases in summer. At the gauge Cologne and for the period 2070-99 under the A1B scenario of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, projected decreases in summer vary between -9% and -40% depending on the climate model used, while increases in winter are in the range of +4% to +51%. These projected changes in mean runoff are generally consistent with earlier studies, but the derived spread in the runoff projections appears to be larger. It is demonstrated that temperature effects (e.g., through altered snow processes) dominate in the Alpine tributaries, while precipitation effects dominate in the lower portion of the Rhine basin. Analyses are also presented for selected extreme runoff indices.

  • 79.
    Brandt, Maja
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    INTEGRATION OF FIELD DATA INTO OPERATIONAL SNOWMELT-RUNOFF MODELS1994Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 25, nr 1-2, s. 101-112Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Conceptual runoff models have become standard tools for operational hydrological forecasting in Scandinavia. These models are normally based on observations from the national climatological networks, but in mountainous areas the stations are few and sometimes not representative. Due to the great economic importance of good hydrological forecasts for the hydro-power industry attempts have been made to improve the model simulations by support from field observations of the snowpack. The snowpack has been mapped by several methods; airborne gamma-spectrometry, airborne georadars, satellites and by conventional snow courses. The studies cover more than ten years of work in Sweden. The conclusion is that field observations of the snow cover have a potential for improvement of the forecasts of inflow to the reservoirs in the mountainous part of the country, where the climatological data coverages is poor. This is pronounced during years with unusual snow distribution. The potential for model improvement is smaller in the climatologically more homogeneous forested lowlands, where the climatological network is denser. The costs of introduction of airborne observations into the modelling procedure are high and can only be justified in areas of great hydropower potential.

  • 80.
    Brandt, Maja
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    MODELING THE EFFECTS OF CLEARCUTTING ON RUNOFF - EXAMPLES FROM CENTRAL SWEDEN1988Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 17, nr 5, s. 307-313Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 81.
    Brandt, Maja
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Modellberäkning av extrem effektiv nederbörd1987Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Följande analys av vattenbalansen vid extrema situationer är ett led i Flödeskommittens arbete med att ta fram nya riktlinjer för dimensioneringsberäkningar för dammar och utskov, som inleddes våren 1985 (Ehlin, 1986). Frågan fick förnyad aktualitet i samband med höstflöden 1985 och 1986, som orsakade översvämningar och ett antal mindre dammras.De viktigaste faktorerna för beräkning av dimensionerande flöden är arealnederbörd, snösmältning, markfuktighet samt flödessituationen före flödet. En analys av extrem nederbörd har utförts (Vedin och Eriksson, 1986). För beräkning av effekten av den extrema nederbörden på flödet behöver även kombinationer av eventuell snösmältning och markfuktighetsunderskott i marken vara kända. Hur stor snösmältning kan tänkas ske i ett avrinningsområde? Kan vi räkna med att marken är helt mättad? Ett sätt att analysera detta är att med HBV-modellen ta fram extrema arealnederbörds- och snösmältningsvärden samt lägsta  markfuktighetsunderskott. I denna rapport redovisas en analys, som bygger på HBV-modellberäkningar i tjugofem avrinningsområden. Sammanlagt täcker områdena 79 000 km2 av Sveriges totala yta på449 000 km2. Den sammantagna tidsperioden för beräkningarna är475 år.

  • 82.
    Brandt, Maja
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Sandén, Per
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF AN OLD MINE TAILINGS DEPOSIT - MODELING OF WATER-BALANCE, ALKALINITY AND PH1987Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 18, nr 4-5, s. 291-300Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 83. Breuer, L.
    et al.
    Huisman, J. A.
    Willems, P.
    Bormann, H.
    Bronstert, A.
    Croke, B. F. W.
    Frede, H. -G
    Graeff, T.
    Hubrechts, L.
    Jakeman, A. J.
    Kite, G.
    Lanini, J.
    Leavesley, G.
    Lettenmaier, D. P.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Seibert, J.
    Sivapalan, M.
    Viney, N. R.
    Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use2009Ingår i: Advances in Water Resources, ISSN 0309-1708, E-ISSN 1872-9657, Vol. 32, nr 2, s. 129-146Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. in this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment. Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model performance are considered and that all models are suitable to participate in further multi-model ensemble set-ups and land use change scenario investigations. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 84.
    Bringfelt, Bertil
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    Meterologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The land surface treatment for the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model - version 2 (RCA2)2001Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    A new version of the land surface scheme has been completed and is now applied in comparative tests of version 2 of the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RCA2) using analysed fields from the ECMWF reanalysis project (ERA). The scheme contains two soil layers and a vegetation layer. There are two prognostic temperatures, one covering the top soil layer plus vegetation and one for a second, deeper soil layer. There is also a third, bottom soil temperature relaxed to six-hourly ERA fields. For soil moisture there are two prognostic layers but no bottom relaxation is used. A hydrologically-based soil moisture model (beta model) is used to represent subgrid soil moisture variability. A hydrological snow model makes regard to subgrid temperature variability using a geographical database for variance of topography. There are equations for heat and moisture exchange between the two soil layers. Here the hydraulic and thermal properties depend on soil type and soil moisture. Transpiration flux transports moisture from both soil layers depending on a stomatal resistance of vegetation surfaces as function of daylight intensity, soil water deficit, fraction of frozen soil water, air temperature and water vapour pressure deficit in the air. A treatment of rainfall interception on vegetation is used, broadly following the ISBA model, with a vegetation layer storing intercepted water. Subgrid weighting of albedo, surface roughness and parameters for calculating surface resistance is made using a geographical database for area fraction of forest and open land. The leaf area index varies seasonally for short vegetation and for deciduous forest, but not for coniferous forest. A soil freezing/melting algorithm influencing soil temperature is used. Implicit methods are used for solving the equations of most surface variables. A summary of model results compared to observations, is given at the end of the report.

  • 85. Bruen, M.
    et al.
    Krahe, P.
    Zappa, M.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Vehvilainen, B.
    Kok, K.
    Daamen, K.
    Visualizing flood forecasting uncertainty: some current European EPS platforms-COST731 working group 32010Ingår i: Atmospheric Science Letters, ISSN 1530-261X, E-ISSN 1530-261X, Vol. 11, nr 2, s. 92-99Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) funding allows European scientists to establish international links, communicate their work to colleagues, and promote international research cooperation. COST731 was established to study the propagation of uncertainty from hydrometeorological observations through meteorological and hydrological models to the final flood forecast. Our focus is on how information about uncertainty is presented to the end user and how it is used. COST731 has assembled a number of demonstrations/case studies that illustrate a variety of practical approaches and these are presented here. While there is yet no consensus on how such information is presented, many end users do find it useful. Copyright (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

  • 86.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Alkalinitets- och pH-förändringar i Ume-älven orsakade av minimitappning1993Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Med beräknat idrifttagande 1994 bygger Vattenfall f n en kraftstation vid Klippen i Umeälven söder om Överurnan. I samband med idrifttagandet kommer vattenföringen på en knappt 10 km lång älvsträcka mellan Umeälvens utlopp ur Överurnan och Klippen att minskas. Ingreppet kommer att medföra en minskning av alkalinitet och pH-värdena på älvsträckan ifråga. För att i möjligaste mån lindra konsekvenserna har en minimitappning på 2,0 m3/s från 1 juni till 15 september och 0,5 m3 /s under resten av året, föreslagits. Modellsimuleringar av pH och alk:alinitet har skett för tiden 1984-91. Resultaten visar att alk:aliniteten minskar från årslägsta värden på 0,05 - 0,06 mekv/1 till 0,02 - 0,03 mekv/1, vilket motsvarar en sänkning av pH från 6,6 - 6,7 till 6,2 - 6,3.

  • 87.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hydrokemiska data från de svenska fältforskningsområdena1985Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    En viktig uppgift för SMHI är att övervaka och fortlöpande geupplysningar om hydrologiska data i Sverige. I och med övertagandet1979 av ansvaret för de av NFR upprättade FältForsknings~mrådena (FFO) har även hydrokemin kommit att utgöra ennaturlig del av SMHis verksamhetsområde.Denna rapport utgör en första publicering av de hydrokemiskadata med korresponderande vattenföringsdata, som idag, 1985,finns på SMHI i FFO-arkivet. Materialet presenteras här iform av tidsdiagram samt en tabell över de analyserade variablernasmedelvärden. Ytterligare en del äldre material frånIHD-områden finns fortfarande utspritt på andra institutionermen skall så småningom läggas in i FFO-arkivet. Rapporteninnehåller också en kortfattad beskrivning av varje område.Inga försök till utvärdering har gjorts. Dock har observeratsen viss skillnad i haltnivå för bl a Cl och N0 2 från IHDperioden1965-75 (analyserade av MISU) jämfört med perioden1979-84 (analyserade av SMHI). Orsaken skall utredas. Avsiktenär att på ett överskådligt sätt redovisa vilka data, somfinns tillgängliga för forskningsändamål.

  • 88.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Some facts about the Torne and Kalix River Basins. A contribution to the NEWBALTIC II workshop in Abisko June 19991999Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The Torne and Kalix rivers rise in the uppermost north west part of Sweden and their basins are situated between approximately 65°50N and 69°N as shown in Figure 1. The size basin of the two river basins is about 58 000 km2 of which 14 500 km2 (25%) is situated in Finland and 350 km 2 (0.6%) in Norway. The remaining, 43 150km2, makes up 9.7% of the area of Sweden. Data presented in this paper originate from Swedish measurements. Finnish data of snow and evaporation from the east of the Torne River basin can be find in the FinnishHydrological Yearbook (1994), which also includes some statistics for the period 1961-90.

    The density of population is very low, about three people per square kilometre. People are mostly living in the river valleys near the coast, the towns of Haparanda, Torneo and Kalix, or in ore-mining centres like Kiruna.

    Most of the basin can be characterised as a flat forest and mire area. The mountains in the north west part compose only 7-8 % of the total drainage basin. The runoff regime is thus characterised by a flow maximum produced by the snowmelt in the forest and swamp region. The mountains are very old. They were formed during the paleozoic era 300 000 000 years ago. As can be seen in Figure 3 at least 1/3 of the basin area is situated below 200masl andalso about 1/3 above the 500m elevation line.

    Topography is further described in Figure 3.

    As can be seen from Table I, the Torne River is number two and the Kalix River number 10 in drainage area order of the Swedish rivers. Due to dominating south-west winds and orographic effects, the Abisko region has a proportionately low precipitation. The specific runoff of the Torne River is thus lower then other Swedish rivers in this part of Sweden.

  • 89.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    The TELFLOOD project: Rainfall – Runoff Modelling and forecasting1998Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of the TELFLOOD project is to improve methods for hydrological forecasting in steep

    catchments. The hydrological modelling task of SMHI has been to improve the HBV model and to

    develop and test routines for model updating and forecasting.

    A new response routine, based on the variable contributing area concept, has been developed and

    proved to be successful in several experimental basins in Sweden, Italy and Ireland

    . The technique

    uses the contributing area in a way that is consistent with the procedure for soil moisture accounting

    and does not require further free parameters. Model improvements are significant to the standard

    HBV-96 version, in particular as concems minor floods after dry periods.

    A new updating routine, based on state corrections of the storages of the HBV model, was

    developed and tested. For some events it proved to be more efficient than the standard method

    based on input corrections.

  • 90.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Andréasson, Johan
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Framtidens översvämningsrisker2006Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    På uppdrag av Länsförsäkringsbolagens Forskningsfond har en studie av framtidens översvämningsrisker i Sverige genomförts. Arbetet har koncentrerats till Dalälven, och de stora sjöarna Vänern, Mälaren och Hjälmaren, men en del landsomfattande analyser har också genomförts. Metodiken baserades på två globala klimatmodeller, två antaganden om framtida utsläpp av växthusgaser och en regional klimatmodell för dynamisk nedskalning till svenska förhållanden. De regionala klimatscenarierna har vidarebearbetats med hjälp av den hydrologiska HBV-modellen och de beräknade vattenflödena och vattenstånden behandlades statistiskt med frekvensanalys. Resultaten visar att den framtida riskexponeringen ändras olika i olika delar av landet. Situationen tycks förvärras speciellt i Vänerområdet och längs Göta älv. Det blir också högre risker för översvämningar i de västliga delarna av fjällkedjan. Riskerna för skyfall, som kan skapa allvarliga lokala översvämningar, ökar sannolikt, även om det är svårt att urskilja ett gemensamt mönster i klimatscenarierna. Studien har också behandlat osäkerheterna i bedömningen av översvämningsriskerna. Det är tydligt att osäkerheten i de globala klimatscenarierna svara för en stor del av osäkerheterna i slutresultaten, men det finns också osäkerheter orsakade av valet av strategi för att överföra klimatförändringssignalen från klimatmodeller till den hydrologiska modellen.

  • 91.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    HBV-modellen och flödesprognoser2001Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]
    • Olika uppdateringsmetoder för HBV-modellen har utvecklats och jämförts. Metoderna har utvärderats i simuleringsexperiment där modellkörningar med observerade data användes som meteorologisk prognos. De olika uppdateringsmetoder som testats är dels autoregressiva, dvs de bygger på en korrektion av uppmätt fel före prognosens början, dels sådana som bygger på en uppdatering av indata dvs nederbörd och temperatur och slutligen sådana där modellens tillståndsvariabler uppdateras. Resultaten visar att alla metoderna medför en förbättrad avrinningsprognos. Ingen av metoderna kan dock sägas vara den bästa vid alla tillfällen. AR-metoden gav bäst resultat vid högsta flöden, t ex i samband med snösmältning, medan uppdatering av modellens tillstånd gav något bättre resultat vid regnflöden. Om en modell skall användas för prognoser i samband med höga flöden är det viktigt att man redan vid kalibreringen tar hänsyn till detta och kalibrerar med hänsyn till just toppflöden, som annars systematiskt kommer att underskattas.
    • Effekten av en uppdatering avklingar jämförelsevis snabbt. Vid långtidsprognoser är det troligt att en kombination av nu testade metoder och uppdatering av t ex snömagasin och de faktorer som speciellt påverkar snösmältningen, dvs. temperatur och kanske t o m modellens graddagfaktor, skulle ge en bättre prognos.
  • 92.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Sanner, Håkan
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Influence of river regulation on runoff to the Gulf of Bothnia: Gulf of Bothnia Year 19911994Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 93.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Sanner, Håkan
    SMHI.
    Modelling influence of river regulation on runoff to the Gulf of Bothnia1996Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 27, nr 5, s. 337-350Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Runoff from a land area of approximately 490,000 km(2) enters the Gulf of Bothnia. This runoff is of essential importance for the flushing of the Gulf. a change in the volume of runoff effects the residence time. There are many natural as well as man made changes in the runoff, both in the form of long-term changes over many years and those occurring within one year. The most significant man made changes come from hydropower regulation. This report describes the effect on runoff from the development of the hydropower plants in Sweden and Finland by means of comparing recorded regulated runoff and simulated natural runoff. A recent time period, 1980-91, and a time period before regulation, 1925-36, were simulated. The monthly magnitudes of the redistributed flows were found to be on average 1,700 m(3)/s. The maximum redistributed monthly flow in May - June reached 5,000-6,000 m(3)/s.

  • 94. Cederwall, K
    et al.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Workshop 6 (synthesis): linking between flood risks and land use changes2002Ingår i: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 45, nr 8, s. 181-182Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Land use changes, such as deforestation, are increasing the world's vulnerability to flooding. Detailed knowledge of the local situation is essential for risk assessment and design of effective flood prevention measures and governs the infrastructure and engineering measures implemented. However extreme floods in large catchments can overwhelm both natural capacity and constructed flood management measures.

  • 95. Ceola, S.
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Baratti, E.
    Bloeschl, G.
    Capell, Réne
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Castellarin, A.
    Freer, J.
    Han, D.
    Hrachowitz, M.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Hutton, C.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Montanari, A.
    Nijzink, R.
    Parajka, J.
    Toth, E.
    Viglione, A.
    Wagener, T.
    Virtual laboratories: new opportunities for collaborative water science2015Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 19, nr 4, s. 2101-2117Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Reproducibility and repeatability of experiments are the fundamental prerequisites that allow researchers to validate results and share hydrological knowledge, experience and expertise in the light of global water management problems. Virtual laboratories offer new opportunities to enable these prerequisites since they allow experimenters to share data, tools and pre-defined experimental procedures (i.e. protocols). Here we present the outcomes of a first collaborative numerical experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory to address the key issues of reproducibility and repeatability. Moving from the definition of accurate and detailed experimental protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied to 15 European catchments by the research groups and model results were collectively examined through a web-based discussion. We found that a detailed modelling protocol was crucial to ensure the comparability and reproducibility of the proposed experiment across groups. Our results suggest that sharing comprehensive and precise protocols and running the experiments within a controlled environment (e.g. virtual laboratory) is as fundamental as sharing data and tools for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility across the broad scientific community and thus advancing hydrology in a more coherent way.

  • 96.
    Crochemore, Louise
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Isberg, Kristina
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Pimentel, Rafael
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Pineda, L.
    SMHI.
    Hasan, Abdulghani
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Lessons learnt from checking the quality of openly accessible river flow data worldwide2019Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, nr 64Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 97.
    Crochemore, Louise
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Ramos, Maria-Helena
    Pappenberger, Florian
    Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts2016Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 20, nr 9, s. 3601-3618Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 98.
    Crochemore, Louise
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Ramos, Maria-Helena
    Pappenberger, Florian
    Perrin, Charles
    Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices2017Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 21, nr 3, s. 1573-1591Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 99. Dahl, M
    et al.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Comparison of four models simulating phosphorus dynamics in Lake Vanern, Sweden2004Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 8, nr 6, s. 1153-1163Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper compares four water quality models applied to Lake Vanern, Sweden. The comparison is focused on phosphorus, the primary limiting nutrient in Lake Vanern. Two of the models, FYRISA and HBV-NP, are simple and were developed as parts of catchment models. Two other models, called LEEDS and MOM are more comprehensive lake models. The models were calibrated using data from the period 1985-1992 and validated using data from the period 1993-2000. The fit to calibration data is similar for the FYRISA, HBV-NP, and LEEDS models, and slightly worse for the BIOLA model. All models fit the validation data almost as well as the calibration data. The models behaviour was tested in two representative scenarios. An increase of emissions by 40% from a pulp and paper mill has a negligible effect on the water quality, while a decrease in phosphorus load by 14% (accomplished by better waste-water treatment in rural households) gives a considerable decrease in phosphorus concentration in the lake. Still, the results of the scenarios vary between the models.

  • 100.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Using flow signatures and catchment similarities to evaluate the E-HYPE multi-basin model across Europe2016Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, nr 2, s. 255-273Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Open data make it possible to set up multi-basin models for large domains across environmental, climate and administrative boundaries. This study presents new methods for evaluating a number of aspects of multi-basin model performance, while exploring the performance of the E-HYPE_v2.1 model for several evaluation criteria in 181 independent river gauges across the European continent. Embedded model assumptions on dominant flow generating mechanisms are analysed by correlating physiographical characteristics to the flow regime. The results indicate that the model captures the spatial variability of flow and is therefore suitable for predictions in ungauged basins. The model shows good performance of long-term means and seasonality, while short-term daily variability is less well represented, especially for Mediterranean and mountainous areas. Major identified shortcomings refer to the resolution of precipitation patterns, aquifer exchanges, water extractions and regulation. This will guide the work with the next model version for which improvements in input data, processes and calibration have been identified to potentially contribute most to improved model performance. [GRAPHICS]

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