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  • 51. Tilmes, S
    et al.
    Brandt, J
    Flatoy, F
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Flemming, J
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Christensen, J H
    Frohn, L M
    Hov, O
    Jacobsen, I
    Reimer, E
    Stern, R
    Zimmermann, J
    Comparison of five eulerian air pollution forecasting systems for the summer of 1999 using the German ozone monitoring data2002In: Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, ISSN 0167-7764, E-ISSN 1573-0662, Vol. 42, no 1, p. 91-121Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Eulerian state-of-the-art air pollution forecasting systems on the European scale are operated routinely by several countries in Europe. DWD and FUB, both Germany, NERI, Denmark, NILU, Norway, and SMHI, Sweden, operate some of these systems. To apply such modeling systems, e.g. for regulatory purposes according to new EU directives, an evaluation and comparison of the model systems is fundamental in order to assess their reliability. One step in this direction is presented in this study: The model forecasts from all five systems have been compared to measurements of ground level ozone in Germany. The outstanding point in this investigation is the availability of a huge amount of data - from forecasts by the different model systems and from observations. This allows for a thorough interpretation of the findings and assures the significance of the observed features. Data from more than 300 measurement stations for a 5-month period (May-September 1999) of the German monitoring networks have been used in this comparison. Different spatial and temporal statistical parameters were applied in the evaluation. Generally, it was found that the most comprehensive models gave the best results. However, the less comprehensive and computational cheaper models also produced good results. The extensive comparison made it possible to point out weak points in the different models and to describe the individual model behavior for a full summer period in a climatological sense. The comparison also gave valuable information for an assessment of individual measurement stations and complete monitoring networks in terms of the representativeness of the observation data.

  • 52. Vautard, R.
    et al.
    Van Loon, M.
    Schaap, M.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bessagnet, B.
    Brandt, J.
    Builtjes, P. J. H.
    Christensen, J. H.
    Cuvelier, C.
    Graff, A.
    Jonson, J. E.
    Krol, M.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Roberts, P.
    Rouil, L.
    Stern, R.
    Tarrason, L.
    Thunis, P.
    Vignati, E.
    White, L.
    Wind, P.
    Is regional air quality model diversity representative of uncertainty for ozone simulation?2006In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 33, no 24, article id L24818Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine whether seven state-of-the-art European regional air quality models provide daily ensembles of predicted ozone maxima that encompass observations. Using tools borrowed from the evaluation of ensemble weather forecasting, we analyze statistics of simulated ensembles of ozone daily maxima over an entire summer season. Although the model ensemble overestimates ozone, the distribution of simulated concentrations is representative of the uncertainty. The spread of simulations is due to random fluctuations resulting from differences in model formulations and input data, but also to the spread between individual model systematic biases. The ensemble average skill increases as the spread decreases. The skill of the ensemble in giving probabilistic predictions of threshold exceedances is also demonstrated. These results allow for optimism about the ability of this ensemble to simulate the uncertainty of the impact of emission control scenarios.

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