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  • 51. Jonsson, A.
    et al.
    Andersson, Lotta
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Alkan-Olsson, J.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    How participatory can participatory modeling be?: Degrees of influence of stakeholder and expert perspectives in six dimensions of participatory modeling2007In: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 56, no 1, p. 207-214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The authors are involved in a project aiming at the development of a methodology for participatory modeling as a tool for public participation in water resource management. In this paper, some examples of different degrees of stakeholder influence in six key dimensions of participatory modeling are identified and discussed. Arnstein's (A ladder of citizen participation. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 1969, 4, 216-224) critical discussion of different degrees of "real" decision-making power is taken as a point of departure to assess possible degrees of stakeholder influence. Can we as participatory modelers be sure that we are really inviting our research objects to an equal communicative relationship where local perspectives, knowledge and priorities are respected to the same extent as central and/or expert perspectives? This paper presents an approach that could be used as a tool for structured reflection to avoid unreflective tendencies towards expert knowledge dominance and low degree of stakeholders' real influence over the process.

  • 52. Krysanova, Valentina
    et al.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Gerten, Dieter
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hattermann, Fred
    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
    How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change2018In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 63, no 5, p. 696-720Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 53. Krysanova, Valentina
    et al.
    Vetter, Tobias
    Eisner, Stephanie
    Huang, Shaochun
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Strauch, Michael
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Kumar, Rohini
    Aich, Valentin
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Chamorro, Alejandro
    van Griensven, Ann
    Kundu, Dipangkar
    Lobanova, Anastasia
    Mishra, Vimal
    Plotner, Stefan
    Reinhardt, Julia
    Seidou, Ousmane
    Wang, Xiaoyan
    Wortmann, Michel
    Zeng, Xiaofan
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide-a synthesis2017In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 10, article id 105002Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 54.
    Kuentz, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wagener, Thorsten
    Understanding hydrologic variability across Europe through catchment classification2017In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 21, no 6, p. 2863-2879Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 55.
    Lindström, Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Development and testing of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) water quality model for different spatial scales2010In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 41, no 3-4, p. 295-319Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The HYPE model is a hydrological model for small-scale and large-scale assessments of water resources and water quality, developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute during 2005-2007. In the model, the landscape is divided into classes according to soil type, land use and altitude. In agricultural lands the soil is divided into three layers, each with individual computations of soil wetness and nutrient processes. The model simulates water flow and transport and turnover of nitrogen and phosphorus. Nutrients follow the same pathways as water in the model: surface runoff, macropore flow, tile drainage and outflow from individual soil layers. Rivers and lakes are described separately with routines for turnover of nutrients in each environment. Model parameters are global, or coupled to soil type or land use. The model was evaluated both by local calibrations to internal variables from different test basins and to data on discharge and nutrients from a large number of small basins. In addition, the estimated parameters were transferred to two larger basins in southern Sweden: River Ronnea and River Vindan. The resulting simulations were generally in good agreement with observations.

  • 56.
    Lindström, Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Parameter precision in the HBV-NP model and impacts on nitrogen scenario simulations in the Ronnea River, Southern Sweden2005In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 34, no 7, p. 533-537Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The HBV-NP model is a newly developed water quality model that describes the turnover and fluxes of both nitrogen and phosphorous. It is based on the conceptual precipitation/runoff HBV model. The HBV-NP model was applied for simulation of nitrogen for the Ronnea catchment in southern Sweden. The catchment was divided into 64 subcatchments in the model. Discharge measurements from six stations and nitrogen measurements from 12 stations were used in the calibration of parameters in the model. Eight automatic calibrations were performed with different combinations of time periods, objective functions, and levels of the nitrogen load in the model. A regionally extended interpretation of the Nash-Sutcliffe R-2 criterion was used in the calibration. In the evaluation of the criterion, the errors were summed over both time steps and sampling points. Scenario simulations of combined measures for reduction of nitrogen load into the sea by 30% were thereafter performed with the eight sets of parameters established by calibration. The model parameters were not uniquely defined by the calibration. However, the simulated relative reduction of nitrogen load into the sea was relatively insensitive to the choice of parameter set, given the available input sources, variables, and data.

  • 57. MacDonald, Matthew K.
    et al.
    Stadnyk, Tricia A.
    Dery, Stephen J.
    Braun, Marco
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Isberg, Kristina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming on Pan-Arctic River Discharge Into the Hudson Bay Complex Through 20702018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 15, p. 7561-7570Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 58.
    Marmefelt, Eleonor
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    An integrated biogeochemical model system for the Baltic Sea1999In: Hydrobiologia, ISSN 0018-8158, E-ISSN 1573-5117, Vol. 393, p. 45-56Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is developing an integrated biogeochemical model system for the Baltic Sea. It consists of three coupled models; a marine biogeochemical-hydrodynamical model (SCOBI), a continuous riverine nitrogen transport model (HBV-N) and an atmospheric transport and chemical model (MATCH). It is supplied with a tool for presentation and analysis. The SCOBI model is a coupled one-dimensional model with high vertical resolution. Horizontal variations are taken into account by dividing the area into smaller boxes. The model includes primary phytoplankton production, nitrogen fixation and secondary zooplankton production. Nitrogen load from land is obtained through the HBV-N model, which simulates organic and inorganic nitrogen separately in catchments. The model is based on the hydrological model HBV, and the subbasin runoff is simulated on a daily basis. The HBV-N model is calibrated and validated against measured concentrations and water flow in rivers. The atmospheric input of oxidised and reduced nitrogen is taken from the annual assessments carried out with the MATCH-Sweden modelling system. MATCH-Sweden combines model calculations, using an atmospheric transport and chemical model, with observations of air- and precipitation chemistry data to give a detailed mapping of concentrations and deposition of nitrogen compounds over Sweden. Supplemented with monitoring data for the specific area of interest, the integrated biogeochemical model system makes a useful tool for environmental protection analyses; e.g. for interpretation of monitoring data as well as creating scenarios for studies of effects in changes of the nutrient loads.

  • 59.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Chubarenko, Boris
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Hansson, Anders
    Havenhand, Jonathan
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Niiranen, Susa
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Raudsepp, Urmas
    Reckermann, Marcus
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Vali, Germo
    Weslawski, Jan-Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations2012In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, no 3, article id 034005Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

  • 60.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Kotwicki, Lech
    Neset, Tina-Simone
    Niiranen, Susa
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Weslawski, Jan Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management2014In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, no 1, p. 37-48Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

  • 61. Montanari, A.
    et al.
    Young, G.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    Hughes, D.
    Wagener, T.
    Ren, L. L.
    Koutsoyiannis, D.
    Cudennec, C.
    Toth, E.
    Grimaldi, S.
    Bloeschl, G.
    Sivapalan, M.
    Beven, K.
    Gupta, H.
    Hipsey, M.
    Schaefli, B.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Boegh, E.
    Schymanski, S. J.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Yu, B.
    Hubert, P.
    Huang, Y.
    Schumann, A.
    Post, D. A.
    Srinivasan, V.
    Harman, C.
    Thompson, S.
    Rogger, M.
    Viglione, A.
    McMillan, H.
    Characklis, G.
    Pang, Z.
    Belyaev, V.
    "Panta Rhei-Everything Flows": Change in hydrology and society-The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-20222013In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 58, no 6, p. 1256-1275Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The new Scientific Decade 2013-2022 of IAHS, entitled Panta RheiEverything Flows, is dedicated to research activities on change in hydrology and society. The purpose of Panta Rhei is to reach an improved interpretation of the processes governing the water cycle by focusing on their changing dynamics in connection with rapidly changing human systems. The practical aim is to improve our capability to make predictions of water resources dynamics to support sustainable societal development in a changing environment. The concept implies a focus on hydrological systems as a changing interface between environment and society, whose dynamics are essential to determine water security, human safety and development, and to set priorities for environmental management. The Scientific Decade 2013-2022 will devise innovative theoretical blueprints for the representation of processes including change and will focus on advanced monitoring and data analysis techniques. Interdisciplinarity will be sought by increased efforts to connect with the socio-economic sciences and geosciences in general. This paper presents a summary of the Science Plan of Panta Rhei, its targets, research questions and expected outcomes.

  • 62. Nijzink, R.C.
    et al.
    Almeida, S.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Capell, Réne
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Parajka, J.
    Freer, J.
    Han, D.
    Wagener, T.
    van Nooijen, R.R.P.
    Savenije, H.H.G.
    Hrachowitz, M.
    Constraining Conceptual Hydrological ModelsWith Multiple Information Sources2018In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 54, no 10, p. 8332-8362Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The calibration of hydrological models without streamflow observations is problematic, and the simultaneous, combined use of remotely sensed products for this purpose has not been exhaustively tested thus far. Our hypothesis is that the combined use of products can (1) reduce the parameter search space and (2) improve the representation of internal model dynamics and hydrological signatures. Five different conceptual hydrological models were applied to 27 catchments across Europe. A parameter selection process, similar to a likelihood weighting procedure, was applied for 1,023 possible combinations of 10 different data sources, ranging from using 1 to all 10 of these products. Distances between the two empirical distributions of model performance metrics with and without using a specific product were determined to assess the added value of a specific product. In a similar way, the performance of the models to reproduce 27 hydrological signatures was evaluated relative to the unconstrained model. Significant reductions in the parameter space were obtained when combinations included Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ‐ Earth Observing System and Advanced Scatterometer soil moisture, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment total water storage anomalies, and, in snow‐dominated catchments, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover products. The evaporation products of Land Surface Analysis ‐ Satellite Application Facility and MOD16 were less effective for deriving meaningful, well‐constrained posterior parameter distributions. The hydrological signature analysis indicated that most models profited from constraining with an increasing number of data sources. Concluding, constraining models with multiple data sources simultaneously was shown to be valuable for at least four of the five hydrological models to determine model parameters in absence of streamflow.

  • 63. Nijzink, Remko
    et al.
    Hutton, Christopher
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Capell, Réne
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Freer, Jim
    Han, Dawei
    Wagener, Thorsten
    McGuire, Kevin
    Savenije, Hubert
    Hrachowitz, Markus
    The evolution of root-zone moisture capacities after deforestation: a step towards hydrological predictions under change?2016In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 20, no 12, p. 4775-4799Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is impossible to observe directly at the catchment scale and is typically treated as a calibration parameter or obtained from a priori available soil characteristics combined with estimates of rooting depth. Often this parameter is considered to remain constant in time. Using long-term data (30–40 years) from three experimental catchments that underwent significant land cover change, we tested the hypotheses that: (1) the root-zone storage capacity significantly changes after deforestation, (2) changes in the root-zone storage capacity can to a large extent explain post-treatment changes to the hydrological regimes and that (3) a time-dynamic formulation of the root-zone storage can improve the performance of a hydrological model.A recently introduced method to estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities based on climate data (i.e. observed rainfall and an estimate of transpiration) was used to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage capacity under change. Briefly, the maximum deficit that arises from the difference between cumulative daily precipitation and transpiration can be considered as a proxy for root-zone storage capacity. This value was compared to the value obtained from four different conceptual hydrological models that were calibrated for consecutive 2-year windows.It was found that water-balance-derived root-zone storage capacities were similar to the values obtained from calibration of the hydrological models. A sharp decline in root-zone storage capacity was observed after deforestation, followed by a gradual recovery, for two of the three catchments. Trend analysis suggested hydrological recovery periods between 5 and 13 years after deforestation. In a proof-of-concept analysis, one of the hydrological models was adapted to allow dynamically changing root-zone storage capacities, following the observed changes due to deforestation. Although the overall performance of the modified model did not considerably change, in 51 % of all the evaluated hydrological signatures, considering all three catchments, improvements were observed when adding a time-variant representation of the root-zone storage to the model.In summary, it is shown that root-zone moisture storage capacities can be highly affected by deforestation and climatic influences and that a simple method exclusively based on climate data can not only provide robust, catchment-scale estimates of this critical parameter, but also reflect its time-dynamic behaviour after deforestation.

  • 64. Olsson, Johanna Alkan
    et al.
    Jonsson, Anna C.
    Andersson, Lotta
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    A model-supported participatory process for nutrient management: a socio-legal analysis of a bottom-up implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive2011In: International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, ISSN 1473-5903, E-ISSN 1747-762X, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 379-389Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A methodology for local stakeholders' involvement in water management using a catchment model as a platform for dialogue has been developed and tested in the Kaggebo Bay drainage area in the southeast of Sweden. The process involved farmers, rural households not connected to municipal wastewater treatment facilities, local and regional authorities as well as different water and agricultural experts. This paper aims to assess whether and how the methodology has succeeded in encouraging social learning and promoting action and which barriers can be identified. The assessment shows that the methodology is able to create confidence in the process and increase the willingness to act as the methodology was able to adapt the form and content of the dialogue to better fit the cognitive and relational needs of involved stakeholders. It is also shown that the process may lead to a probable improvement of the eutrophication situation. However, if these types of processes are to serve not only as a basis for social learning and action at the local level, but also as the basis for a broader process of societal learning, then a mechanism to confer local ideas to the regional and national levels has to be clarified.

  • 65.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Borris, Matthias
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Foster, Kean
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Persson, Magnus
    SMHI.
    Perttu, Anna-Maria
    Uvo, Cintia B.
    Viklander, Maria
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden2016In: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4, no 3, article id 39Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 66.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Borris, Matthias
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Foster, Kean
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Persson, Magnus
    Perttu, Anna-Maria
    Uvo, Cintia B.
    Viklander, Maria
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Recent Progress and Current Issues.2016In: Climate, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4(3), no 39Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 67.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Large-scale hydrological modelling by using modified PUB recommendations: the India-HYPE case2015In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 19, no 11, p. 4559-4579Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The scientific initiative Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) (2003-2012 by the IAHS) put considerable effort into improving the reliability of hydrological models to predict flow response in ungauged rivers. PUB's collective experience advanced hydrologic science and defined guidelines to make predictions in catchments without observed runoff data. At present, there is a raised interest in applying catchment models to large domains and large data samples in a multi-basin manner, to explore emerging spatial patterns or learn from comparative hydrology. However, such modelling involves additional sources of uncertainties caused by the inconsistency between input data sets, i.e. particularly regional and global databases. This may lead to inaccurate model parameterisation and erroneous process understanding. In order to bridge the gap between the best practices for flow predictions in single catchments and multi-basins at the large scale, we present a further developed and slightly modified version of the recommended best practices for PUB by Takeuchi et al. (2013). By using examples from a recent HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model set-up across 6000 subbasins for the Indian subcontinent, named India-HYPE v1.0, we explore the PUB recommendations, identify challenges and recommend ways to overcome them. We describe the work process related to (a) errors and inconsistencies in global databases, unknown human impacts, and poor data quality; (b) robust approaches to identify model parameters using a stepwise calibration approach, remote sensing data, expert knowledge, and catchment similarities; and (c) evaluation based on flow signatures and performance metrics, using both multiple criteria and multiple variables, and independent gauges for "blind tests". The results show that despite the strong physiographical gradient over the subcontinent, a single model can describe the spatial variability in dominant hydrological processes at the catchment scale. In addition, spatial model deficiencies are used to identify potential improvements of the model concept. Eventually, through simultaneous calibration using numerous gauges, the median Kling-Gupta efficiency for river flow increased from 0.14 to 0.64. We finally demonstrate the potential of multi-basin modelling for comparative hydrology using PUB, by grouping the 6000 subbasins based on similarities in flow signatures to gain insights into the spatial patterns of flow generating processes at the large scale.

  • 68.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Huang, S.
    Aich, V.
    Samaniego, L.
    Eisner, S.
    Shi, P.
    Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 467-481Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 69.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Huang, S.
    Aich, V.
    Samaniego, L.
    Eisner, S.
    Shi, P.
    Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions.2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 70.
    Pettersson, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Johansson, Barbro
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nitrogen concentrations simulated with HBV-N: New response function and calibration strategy - Paper presented at the Nordic Hydrological Conference (Uppsala, Sweden June, 2000)2001In: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 32, no 3, p. 227-248Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    HBV-N is a conceptual process-based model for simulation of transformation and transport of nitrogen on the catchment scale. This paper presents further development with focus on the response function and calibration procedures. Evaluation of the model routines was made in 12 test basins in southern Sweden (without or with only few lakes). Previous versions of HBV-N included a HBV version with a single reservoir in the response function. The presented results show that both nitrogen concentrations and water discharge simulations improved when a second reservoir was introduced. The two-reservoir model was found to be more well-posed for description of residence-times and flow paths. On average, this resulted in an increase in explained variance (R-2) for nitrogen concentrations by 0.3. Multiple-response split-sample calibration was found to further improve the model performance and reliability. In previous applications HBV-N has been applied by using single-response calibration. However, simultaneous calibration of water discharge and nitrogen improved the R2 for nitrogen concentrations by about 0.1 (range 0.02-0.25), but did not affect the simulation of water discharge. This new calibration strategy forces the hydrological parameters to a new optimum, and reduces the level of uncertainty for both hydrochemical and hydrological modelling.

  • 71. Pugliese, Alessio
    et al.
    Persiano, Simone
    Bagli, Stefano
    Mazzoli, Paolo
    Parajka, Juraj
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Capell, Réne
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Montanari, Alberto
    Bloeschl, Guenter
    Castellarin, Attilio
    A geostatistical data-assimilation technique for enhancing macro-scale rainfall-runoff simulations2018In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 9, p. 4633-4648Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 72. Reckermann, Marcus
    et al.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Omstedt, Anders
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    von Storch, Hans
    Keevallik, Sirje
    Schneider, Bernd
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Huenicke, Birgit
    BALTEX-an interdisciplinary research network for the Baltic Sea region2011In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, no 4, article id 045205Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    BALTEX is an environmental research network dealing with the Earth system of the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin. Important elements include the water and energy cycle, climate variability and change, water management and extreme events, and related impacts on biogeochemical cycles. BALTEX was founded in 1993 as a GEWEX continental-scale experiment and is currently in its second 10 yr phase. Phase I (1993-2002) was primarily dedicated to hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic processes in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, hence mostly dealt with the physical aspects of the system. Scientific focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the Baltic Sea and the surface of its catchment. The BALTEX study area was hydrologically defined as the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The second 10 yr phase of BALTEX (Phase II: 2003-12) has strengthened regional climate research, water management issues, biogeochemical cycles and overarching efforts to reach out to stakeholders and decision makers, as well as to foster communication and education. Achievements of BALTEX Phase II have been the establishment of an assessment report of regional climate change and its impacts on the Baltic Sea basin (from hydrological to biological and socio-economic), the further development of regional physical climate models and the integration of biogeochemical and ecosystem models. BALTEX features a strong infrastructure, with an international secretariat and a publication series, and organizes various workshops and conferences. This article gives an overview of the BALTEX programme, with an emphasis on Phase II, with some examples from BALTEX-related research.

  • 73. Schoumans, O. F.
    et al.
    Silgram, M.
    Walvoort, D. J. J.
    Groenendijk, P.
    Bouraoui, F.
    Andersen, H. E.
    Lo Porto, A.
    Reisser, H.
    Le Gall, G.
    Anthony, S.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Johnsson, H.
    Panagopoulos, Y.
    Mimikou, M.
    Zweynert, U.
    Behrendt, H.
    Barr, A.
    Evaluation of the difference of eight model applications to assess diffuse annual nutrient losses from agricultural land2009In: Journal of Environmental Monitoring, ISSN 1464-0325, E-ISSN 1464-0333, Vol. 11, no 3, p. 540-553Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The capability of eight nutrient models to predict annual nutrient losses (nitrogen and phosphorus) at catchment scale have been studied in the EUROHARP project. The methodologies involved in these models differ profoundly in their complexity, level of process representation and data requirements. This evaluation is focused on model performance in three core catchments: the Vansjo-Hobol (Norway), the Ouse ( Yorkshire, UK) and the Enza (Italy). These three different model applications have been evaluated by comparing calculated annual nutrient loads (total N or nitrate and total P), based on observed flow and total nitrogen or nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations, and the annual nutrient loads that were simulated by the eight nutrient models. Four statistics have been applied for this purpose: the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean error (ME), and Nash-Sutcliffe's model efficiency (NS). The results show that all model approaches can predict the calculated annual discharges. Depending on the observed statistics ( RMSE, MAE, ME and NS) the scores of the model application differed, therefore no overall 'best model' could be identified. Although the water and nutrient loads from (sub) catchments can be predicted, the modelled pathways of nutrients within agricultural land and the nutrient losses to surface waters from agricultural land vary among the catchments and among those model approaches which are able to make this distinction.

  • 74. Silgram, M.
    et al.
    Anthony, S. G.
    Collins, A. L.
    Stromqvist, J.
    Bouraoui, F.
    Schoumans, O.
    Lo Porto, A.
    Groenendijk, P.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Mimikou, M.
    Johnsson, H.
    Evaluation of diffuse pollution model applications in EUROHARP catchments with limited data2009In: Journal of Environmental Monitoring, ISSN 1464-0325, E-ISSN 1464-0333, Vol. 11, no 3, p. 554-571Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The application of diffuse pollution models included in EUROHARP encompassed varying levels of parameterisation and approaches to the preparation of input data depending on the model and modelling team involved. Modellers consistently faced important decisions in relation to data interpretation, especially in those catchments with unfamiliar physical or climatic characteristics, where catchment conditions were beyond the range for which a particular model was originally developed, or where only limited input data were available. In addition to a broad discussion of data issues, this paper compares the performance of the four sub-annual output models tested in EUROHARP (EveNFlow, NL-CAT, SWAT and TRK) in three test catchments without the modelling teams having sight of measured flow and nitrate concentration data. Model performance in this "blind test" indicate that the range of predictions generated by any individual models pre and post calibration exceed the differences between the estimates yielded by all four models. Comparison of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) statistics for simulated and observed flow, concentration and loads underscores the benefits of calibration for these intermediate and complex model formulations. Interpretation of input data (e. g. rainfall interpolation method and pedotransfer functions selected) appeared equally (or more) important than process representation. In the absence of calibration data, modeller unfamiliarity with a particular catchment and its environmental processes sometimes resulted in questionable assumptions and input errors which highlight the problems facing modellers charged with implementing policies under the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) in poorly monitored catchments. Catchment data owners and modellers must therefore work more closely given that the output from diffuse pollution models is clearly modeller-limited as well as model-limited.

  • 75. Silgram, M.
    et al.
    Schoumans, O. F.
    Walvoort, D. J. J.
    Anthony, S. G.
    Groenendijk, P.
    Stromqvist, J.
    Bouraoui, F.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kapetanaki, M.
    Lo Porto, A.
    Martensson, K.
    Subannual models for catchment management: evaluating model performance on three European catchments2009In: Journal of Environmental Monitoring, ISSN 1464-0325, E-ISSN 1464-0333, Vol. 11, no 3, p. 526-539Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Models' abilities to predict nutrient losses at subannual timesteps is highly significant for evaluating policy measures, as it enables trends and the frequency of exceedance of water quality thresholds to be predicted. Subannual predictions also permit assessments of seasonality in nutrient concentrations, which are necessary to determine susceptibility to eutrophic conditions and the impact of management practices on water quality. Predictions of subannual concentrations are pertinent to EC Directives, whereas load estimates are relevant to the 50% target reduction in nutrient loading to the maritime area under OSPAR. This article considers the ability of four models ( ranging from conceptual to fully mechanistic), to predict river flows, concentrations and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus on a subannual basis in catchments in Norway, England, and Italy. Results demonstrate that model performance deemed satisfactory on an annual basis may conceal considerable divergence in performance when scrutinised on a weekly or monthly basis. In most cases the four models performed satisfactorily, and mismatches between measurements and model predictions were primarily ascribed to the limitations in input data ( soils in the Norwegian catchment; weather in the Italian catchment). However, results identified limitations in model conceptualisation associated with the damping and lagging effect of a large lake leading to contrasts in model performance upstream and downstream of this feature in the Norwegian catchment. For SWAT applied to the Norwegian catchment, although flow predictions were reasonable, the large number of parameters requiring identification, and the lack of familiarity with this environment, led to poor predictions of river nutrient concentrations.

  • 76.
    Strombäck, Lena
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    The Importance of Open Data and Software for Large Scale Hydrological Modelling2013In: Open water Journal, Vol. 2, no 1, article id 32Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 77.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Dahne, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale2012In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 57, no 2, p. 229-247Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A dynamic water quality model, HYPE, was applied to a large, data-sparse region to study whether reliable information on water quantity and water quality could be obtained for both gauged and ungauged waterbodies. The model (called S-HYPE) was set up for all of Sweden (similar to 450 000 km(2)), divided into sub-basins with an average area of 28 km(2). Readily available national databases were used for physiographic data, emissions and agricultural practices, fixed values for representative years were used. Daily precipitation and temperature were used as the dynamic forcing of the model. Model evaluation was based on data from several hundred monitoring sites, of which approximately 90% had not been used in calibration on a daily scale. Results were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation and relative errors: 92% of the spatial variation was explained for specific water discharge, and 88% and 59% for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, respectively. Day-to-day variations were modelled with satisfactory results for water discharge and the seasonal variation of nitrogen concentrations was also generally well captured. In 20 large, unregulated rivers the median NSE for water discharge was 0.84, and the corresponding number for 76 partly-regulated river basins was 0.52. In small basins, the NSE was typically above 0.6. These major achievements relative to previous similar experiments were ascribed to the step-wise calibration process using representative gauged basins and the use of amodelling concept, whereby coefficients are linked to physiographic variables rather than to specific sites.

  • 78. Tonderski, K S
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Modeling the impact of potential wetlands on phosphorus retention in a Swedish catchment2005In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 34, no 7, p. 544-551Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In southern Sweden, wetlands are constructed to remove nitrogen (N) in agricultural catchments. The possible effects of such wetlands on riverine phosphorus (P) were also estimated using input-output data from three well-monitored wetlands. This was done to formulate a simple model for removal of P that is dependent on inflow characteristics. Next, the N- and P-reducing effects of wetlands were modeled on a catchment scale (1900 km 2) using the HBV-NP model and various assumptions about the wetland area and location. All three wetlands functioned as sinks for total P (tot-P) and for total suspended solids (TSS) with a removal of 10% to 31% and 28% to 50%, respectively. Mean P-removal rates of 17-49 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) were well simulated with the model. Catchment scale simulations indicated that wetlands were more efficient (in percentage of load) as traps for P than for N and that this may motivate the construction of wetlands for P removal far upstream from the catchment outlet.

  • 79. Venohr, M
    et al.
    Donohue, I
    Fogelberg, S
    SMHI.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Irvine, K
    Behrendt, H
    Nitrogen retention in a river system and the effects of river morphology and lakes2005In: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 51, no 3-4, p. 19-29Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The mean annual transfer (loss and retention) of nitrogen in a river system was estimated using a conceptual approach based on water surface area and runoff. Two different approaches for the calculation of water surface area were applied to determine riverine nitrogen retention in four European catchments, ranging between 860-14,000 km(2) in area, and differing considerably in the proportion and distribution of surface waters, specific runoff and specific nutrient emissions. The transfer rate was estimated sequentially as either the mean value for the total catchment, on a sub-catchment scale, or considering the distribution of water surface area within a sub-catchment. For the latter measure, nitrogen retention in larger lakes was calculated separately. Nitrogen emissions modelled with MONERIS and HBV-N were used to calculate nitrogen river loads and compare those with observed loads. Inclusion of the proportion of water area within a sub-catchment improved modelled results in catchment with large lakes in sub-catchments, but not where there was a homogenous distribution of surface waters among sub-catchments.

  • 80. Verhoeven, J T A
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yin, C Q
    Hefting, M M
    Regional and global concerns over wetlands and water quality2006In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, ISSN 0169-5347, E-ISSN 1872-8383, Vol. 21, no 2, p. 96-103Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water quality in many stream catchments and river basins is severely impacted by nutrient enrichment as a result of agriculture. Water-resource managers worldwide are considering the potential role of riparian zones and floodplain wetlands in improving stream-water quality, as there is evidence at the site scale that such wetlands are efficient at removing nutrients from through-flowing water. However, recent studies have highlighted disadvantages of such use of wetlands, including emissions of greenhouse gases and losses of biodiversity that result from prolonged nutrient loading. Here, we discuss the water purification function of wetlands at the site and catchment scale and suggest ways in which these disadvantages could be overcome.

  • 81. Vesakoski, Jenni-Mari
    et al.
    Nylen, Tua
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Isberg, Kristina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Holopainen, Markus
    Hyyppa, Juha
    Alho, Petteri
    Arctic Mackenzie Delta channel planform evolution during 1983-2013 utilising Landsat data and hydrological time series2017In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 31, no 22, p. 3979-3995Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 82. Weichselgartner, Juergen
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Evolving Climate Services into Knowledge-Action Systems2019In: Weather, Climate, and Society, ISSN 1948-8327, E-ISSN 1948-8335, Vol. 11, no 2, p. 385-399Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 83. White, Christopher J.
    et al.
    Carlsen, Henrik
    Robertson, Andrew W.
    Klein, Richard J. T.
    Lazo, Jeffrey K.
    Kumar, Arun
    Vitart, Frederic
    de Perez, Erin Coughlan
    Ray, Andrea J.
    Murray, Virginia
    Bharwani, Sukaina
    MacLeod, Dave
    James, Rachel
    Fleming, Lora
    Morse, Andrew P.
    Eggen, Bernd
    Graham, Richard
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Becker, Emily
    Pegion, Kathleen V.
    Holbrook, Neil J.
    McEvoy, Darryn
    Depledge, Michael
    Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah
    Brown, Timothy J.
    Street, Roger
    Jones, Lindsey
    Remenyi, Tomas A.
    Hodgson-Johnston, Indi
    Buontempo, Carlo
    Lamb, Rob
    Meinke, Holger
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Zebiak, Stephen E.
    Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions2017In: Meteorological Applications, ISSN 1350-4827, E-ISSN 1469-8080, Vol. 24, no 3, p. 315-325Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 84.
    Wittgren, Hans Bertil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Source apportionment of riverine nitrogen transport based on catchment modelling1996In: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 33, no 4-5, p. 109-115Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Source apportionment of river substance transport, i.e. estimation of how much each source in each subbasin contributes to the river-mouth transport is a vital step in achieving the most efficient management practices to reduce pollutant loads to the sea. In this study, the spatially lumped (at sub-catchment level), semiempirical PULSE hydrological model, with a nitrogen routine coupled to if was used to perform source apportionment of nitrogen transport in the Soderkopingsan river basin (882 km(2)) in south-eastern Sweden, for the period 1991-93. The river basin was divided into 28 subbasins and the following sources were considered: land leakage from the categories forest arable and ley/pasture; point sources, and; atmospheric deposition on lake surfaces. The calibrated model yielded an explained variance of 60%, based on comparison of measured and modelled river nitrogen (Total N) concentrations. Eight subbasins, with net contributions to the river-mouth transport exceeding 3 kg ha(-1) yr(-1), were identified as the most promising candidates for cost efficient nitrogen management. The other 20 subbasins all had net contributions below 3 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Arable land contributed 63% of the nitrogen transport at the river mouth and would thus be in focus for management measures. However, point sources (18% contribution to net transport) should also be considered due to their relatively high accessibility for removal measures (high concentrations). E.g., the most downstream subbasin, with the largest wastewater treatment plant in the whole river basin, had a net contribution of 16 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). This method for source apportionment may provide authorities with quantitative information about where in a river basin, and at which sources, they should focus their attention. However, once this is done, an analysis with higher resolution has to be performed in each of the interesting subbasins, before decisions on actual management measures can be taken. Copyright (C) 1996 IAWQ.

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