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  • 351.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rayner, David
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Från utsläppsscenarier till lokal nederbörd och översvämningsrisker2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report methods and results are presented from downscaling of about 40 climate scenarios to local time series for two drainage areas; River Torneå in northern Sweden and River Ätran in southern Sweden. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling has been made and flood maps have been produced for the cities Haparanda and Falkenberg. A study of future extreme precipitation is also presented. The work was performed within the project “Future rainfall and flooding in Sweden” financed by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB).

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  • 352.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Klimatförändringarnas effekter på svenskt miljömålsarbete2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    De mål som det svenska miljömålsarbetet ska nå sattes för ett antal år sedan och har delvis preciserats sedan dess, samtidigt som åtgärder har genomförts. Många miljömål bedömdes så sent som 2009 vara svåra att uppnå inom den utsatta tiden, det vill säga till 2020. Klimatförändringarnas effekter, som idag uppmärksammas alltmer, är en faktor som komplicerar och kan förlänga det tidsperspektiv vi har för miljökvalitetsmålen. Många av de viktiga klimateffekter som har lyfts fram i miljömålsarbetet är inte alltid möjliga att kvantifiera med dagens kunskap.Preliminärt verkar det ändå vara så att fram till 2020 har klimatförändringarna liten eller ganska liten betydelse. Vartefter kommer dock klimateffekter att påverka möjligheten att nå miljömålen mer och mer. Hur snabbt effekterna uppstår och hur omfattande de blir beror förstås på i vilken omfattning Begränsad klimatpåverkan uppnås. De miljömål som påverkas mest av klimatförändringarna antingen via direkta effekter eller indirekt handlar om luft, övergödning och biologisk mångfald. Indirekta effekter berör till exempel användning av mark och vatten för utökad förnybar energiproduktion.

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    FULLTEXT01
  • 353.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Vägledning för användande av klimatscenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    SMHI fick i sitt regleringsbrev för år 2014 uppdraget att, i samråd med berörda myndigheter och andra aktörer, ta fram en vägledning för användandet av klimatscenarier. Enligt önskemål framtogs vägledningen som en webb-produkt på smhi.se, i anslutning till klimatscenarier. Materialet finns även samlat i denna rapport, såsom det lanserades hösten 2014. Eftersom materialet är uppbyggt för webb-presentation, där läsaren ska kunna gå in i kapitel utan att ha läst de tidigare, förekommer en del upprepningar. Klimatscenarier är beskrivningar av hur klimatet kan utvecklas i framtiden. Vägledningen ger stöd för att tolka och använda klimatscenarier, med dess möjligheter och begränsningar. Klimateffektstudier beskrivs översiktligt och med fokus på hydrologiska effektstudier. Några enkla steg för att komma igång med klimatanpassning presenteras också. I ordlistan förklaras de begrepp som används.

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    FULLTEXT01
  • 354.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Beräknade temperaturförhållanden för tre platser i Sverige – perioderna 1961-1990 och 2011-20402007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Under hösten 2006 utförde Rossby Centre ett omfattande arbete för att till olika sektorer i samhället ta fram underlagsmaterial om klimatets utveckling. Beställare var framförallt Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningens olika arbetsgrupper men också energibranschen. Föreliggande rapport beskriver en delleverans till Elforsk-projektet ”Tänkbara konsekvenser för den svenska energisektorn av klimatförändringar – effekter, sårbarhet och anpassning”. Material togs fram som belyser en möjlig temperaturutveckling i ett relativt kort framtidsperspektiv representerat av perioden 2011-2040. Det fanns önskemål om att särskilt titta på utvecklingen för tre platser med olika klimat i ett nord-sydligt perspektiv och med närhet till större befolkningsgrupper.Analyserna inom projektet har finansierats av Elforsk. Modellsimuleringarna har gjorts på den dedikerade klimatdatorresursen ”Tornado” vid Nationellt Superdatorcentrum, Linköpings universitet. Tornado finansieras av Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse.I denna rapport presenteras materialet avseende de tre platserna kompletterat med ett litet urval kartor som visar några temperaturindex. Ett mycket omfattande kartmaterial finns att tillgå på Rossby Centrets hemsida som nås via www.smhi.se.

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    FULLTEXT01
  • 355. Pessacg, Natalia L.
    et al.
    Solman, Silvina A.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sanchez, Enrique
    Marengo, Jose
    Li, Laurent
    Remedio, Armelle Reca C.
    da Rocha, Rosmeri P.
    Mourao, Caroline
    Jacob, Daniela
    The surface radiation budget over South America in a set of regional climate models from the CLARIS-LPB project2014In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 43, no 5-6, p. 1221-1239Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The performance of seven regional climate models in simulating the radiation and heat fluxes at the surface over South America (SA) is evaluated. Sources of uncertainty and errors are identified. All simulations have been performed in the context of the CLARIS-LPB Project for the period 1990-2008 and are compared with the GEWEX-SRB, CRU, and GLDAS2 dataset and NCEP-NOAA reanalysis. Results showed that most of the models overestimate the net surface short-wave radiation over tropical SA and La Plata Basin and underestimate it over oceanic regions. Errors in the short-wave radiation are mainly associated with uncertainties in the representation of surface albedo and cloud fraction. For the net surface long-wave radiation, model biases are diverse. However, the ensemble mean showed a good agreement with the GEWEX-SRB dataset due to the compensation of individual model biases. Errors in the net surface long-wave radiation can be explained, in a large proportion, by errors in cloud fraction. For some particular models, errors in temperature also contribute to errors in the net long-wave radiation. Analysis of the annual cycle of each component of the energy budget indicates that the RCMs reproduce generally well the main characteristics of the short- and long-wave radiations in terms of timing and amplitude. However, a large spread among models over tropical SA is apparent. The annual cycle of the sensible heat flux showed a strong overestimation in comparison with the reanalysis and GLDAS2 dataset. For the latent heat flux, strong differences between the reanalysis and GLDAS2 are calculated particularly over tropical SA.

  • 356. Pinto, Izidine
    et al.
    Lennard, Christopher
    Tadross, Mark
    Hewitson, Bruce
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Panitz, Hans-Juergen
    Shongwe, Mxolisi E.
    Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 135, no 3-4, p. 655-668Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 357. Pisinaras, Vassilios
    et al.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Gemitzi, Alexandra
    Conceptualizing and assessing the effects of installation and operation of photovoltaic power plants on major hydrologic budget constituents2014In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 493, p. 239-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study addresses the effects of land use change from agricultural to photovoltaic parks (PVPs) on the hydrology of an area. Although many environmental effects have been identified and analyzed, only minor attention has been given to the hydrologic effects of the installation and operation of PVPs. The effects of current PVP installation and operation practices on major hydrologic budget constituents (surface runoff, evapotranspiration and percolation) were identified, conceptualized, quantified and simulated using SWAT model. Vosvozis river basin located in north Greece was selected as a test site. Additionally, long-term effects were simulated using dynamically downscaled climate projections by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by 5 different General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2011-2100. Results indicate that surface runoff and percolation potential are significantly increased at the local scale and have to be considered during PVP siting, especially when sensitive and protected ecosystems are involved. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 358. Prein, A. F.
    et al.
    Gobiet, A.
    Truhetz, H.
    Keuler, K.
    Goergen, K.
    Teichmann, C.
    Maule, C. Fox
    van Meijgaard, E.
    Deque, M.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Vautard, R.
    Colette, A.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jacob, D.
    Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11 degrees and 0.44 degrees simulations: high resolution, high benefits?2016In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 1-2, p. 383-412Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative an ensemble of European-wide high-resolution regional climate simulations on a 0.11 degrees (similar to 12.5 km) grid has been generated. This study investigates whether the fine-gridded regional climate models are found to add value to the simulated mean and extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation compared to their coarser-gridded 0.44 degrees (similar to 50 km) counterparts. Therefore, pairs of fine-and coarse-gridded simulations of eight reanalysis-driven models are compared to fine-gridded observations in the Alps, Germany, Sweden, Norway, France, the Carpathians, and Spain. A clear result is that the 0.11 degrees simulations are found to better reproduce mean and extreme precipitation for almost all regions and seasons, even on the scale of the coarser-gridded simulations (50 km). This is primarily caused by the improved representation of orography in the 0.11 degrees simulations and therefore largest improvements can be found in regions with substantial orographic features. Improvements in reproducing precipitation in the summer season appear also due to the fact that in the fine-gridded simulations the larger scales of convection are captured by the resolved-scale dynamics. The 0.11 degrees simulations reduce biases in large areas of the investigated regions, have an improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns, and precipitation distributions are improved for daily and in particular for 3 hourly precipitation sums in Switzerland. When the evaluation is conducted on the fine (12.5 km) grid, the added value of the 0.11 degrees models becomes even more obvious.

  • 359. Pryor, S. C.
    et al.
    Barthelmie, R. J.
    Clausen, N. E.
    Drews, M.
    MacKellar, N.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios2012In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 38, no 1-2, p. 189-208Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 using HIRHAM5 and RCA3 for a northern European domain focused on Scandinavia indicates sustained extreme wind speeds with long recurrence intervals (50 years) and intense winds are not likely to evolve out of the historical envelope of variability until the end of C21st. Even then, significant changes are indicated only in the SW of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea where there is some evidence for relatively small magnitude increases in the 50 year return period wind speed (of up to 15%). There are marked differences in results based on the two Regional Climate Models. Additionally, internal (inherent) variability and initial conditions exert a strong impact on projected wind climates throughout the twenty-first century. Simulations of wind gusts by one of the RCMs (RCA3) indicate some evidence for increased magnitudes (of up to +10%) in the southwest of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea by the end of the current century. As in prior downscaling of ECHAM4, dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 indicates a tendency towards increased energy density and thus wind power generation potential over the course of the C21st. However, caution should be used in interpreting this inference given the high degree of wind climate projection spread that derives from the specific AOGCM and RCM used in the downscaling.

  • 360. Pryor, S C
    et al.
    Barthelmie, R J
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Potential climate change impact on wind energy resources in northern Europe: analyses using a regional climate model2005In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 25, no 7-8, p. 815-835Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This paper presents dynamically downscaled near-surface wind fields and examines the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields from the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) with boundary conditions derived from ECHAM4/OPYC3 AOGCM and the HadAM3H atmosphere-only GCM exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in reanalysis data products during the control period (1961-1990). The near-surface wind speeds calculated for a climate change projection period of 2071-2100 are higher than during the control run for two IPCC emission scenarios (A2, B2) for simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3. The RCAO simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3 indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run and climate change projection period and for more substantial increases in energy density during the winter season. However, the differences between the RCAO simulations for the climate projection period and the control run are of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Additionally, the simulations show a high degree of sensitivity to the boundary conditions, and simulations conducted using boundary conditions from HadAM3H exhibit evidence of slight declines or no change in wind speed and energy density between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Hence, the uncertainty of the projected wind changes is relatively high.

  • 361. Pryor, S. C.
    et al.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Influence of spatial resolution on regional climate model derived wind climates2012In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 117, article id D03117Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind speeds for a nominal height of 10 m and from the lowest model level (similar to 70 m above ground level) from the Rossby Center regional climate model (RCM) (RCA3) run at four resolutions between approximately 50 x 50 km and 6 x 6 km are analyzed to assess the effect of model resolution on wind climates. The influence of model resolution in this topographically simple subdomain of northern Europe is more profound in the wind extremes than in the central tendency. The domain-averaged mean wind speed at 10 m increases by 5% as the resolution increases from 50 to 6.25 km, while the 50 year return period wind speed and wind gust at this height increase by over 10% and 24%, respectively. Larger changes are observed in these wind speed metrics at the lowest model level as model resolution increases (similar to+10% in the mean and similar to+20% in the 50 year return period wind speed). These differences are of similar magnitude to the climate change signal in extreme wind events derived in prior research and may have implications for climate change risk and vulnerability analyses. Output from the lowest model level indicates some evidence for increased variability at synoptic and meso-alpha time scales with increased model resolution, but the effect is nonlinear. Furthermore, analysis of power spectra of grid cell average and tile fraction wind speeds at 10 m does not support the assertion that increased model resolution increases model skill at synoptic and meso-a time scales relative to in situ observations.

  • 362. Pryor, S.C.
    et al.
    Barthelmie, R.J.
    Schoof, J.T.
    Clausen, N.E.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Drews, M.
    Intense and extreme wind speeds over the Nordic countries2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 363. Pryor, S.C.
    et al.
    Barthelmie1, R.J.
    Claussen, N.E.
    Nielsen, N.M.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Drews, M.
    Climate change impacts on extreme wind speeds2009In: / [ed] Rockel, B., Bärring, L and Reckermann, M, 2009, p. 271-272Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 364. Pucik, Tomas
    et al.
    Groenemeijer, Pieter
    Raedler, Anja T.
    Tijssen, Lars
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Prein, Andreas F.
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Fealy, Rowan
    Jacob, Daniela
    Teichmann, Claas
    Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble2017In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 30, no 17, p. 6771-6794Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 365. Pulatov, Bakhtiyor
    et al.
    Jonsson, Anna Maria
    Wilcke, Renate
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Linderson, Maj-Lena
    Hall, Karin
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Evaluation of the phenological synchrony between potato crop and Colorado potato beetle under future climate in Europe2016In: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, ISSN 0167-8809, E-ISSN 1873-2305, Vol. 224, p. 39-49Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 366. Qian, Minwei
    et al.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Laprise, Rene
    Caya, Daniel
    The Influences of NAO and the Hudson Bay sea-ice on the climate of eastern Canada2008In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 31, no 2-3, p. 169-182Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 367. Radilovic, Slavko
    et al.
    Koracin, Darko
    Denamiel, Clea
    Belusic, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Guttler, Ivan
    Vilibic, Ivica
    Simulated and observed air temperature trends in the eastern Adriatic2020In: Atmospheric Science Letters, ISSN 1530-261X, E-ISSN 1530-261X, article id e951Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 368. Rafael, S.
    et al.
    Martins, Helena
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Marta-Almeida, M.
    Sa, E.
    Coelho, S.
    Rocha, A.
    Borrego, C.
    Lopes, M.
    Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal)2017In: Environmental Research, ISSN 0013-9351, E-ISSN 1096-0953, Vol. 155, p. 321-334Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 369. Rafael, S.
    et al.
    Martins, Helena
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sa, E.
    Carvalho, D.
    Borrego, C.
    Lopes, M.
    Influence of urban resilience measures in the magnitude and behaviour of energy fluxes in the city of Porto (Portugal) under a climate change scenario2016In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 566, p. 1500-1510Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 370. Rammig, A.
    et al.
    Jonsson, A. M.
    Hickler, T.
    Smith, B.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sykes, M. T.
    Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model2010In: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 221, no 2, p. 303-313Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6-12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. However, according to the model, frost damage might decrease the potential productivity by as much as 25% early in the century. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 371. Rana, Arun
    et al.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kupiainen, Marco
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kolax, Michael
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia2020In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 372. Raschke, E
    et al.
    Meywerk, J
    Warrach, K
    Andrae, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Beyrich, F
    Bosveld, F
    Bumke, K
    Fortelius, C
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Gryning, S E
    Halldin, S
    Hasse, L
    Heikinheimo, M
    Isemer, H J
    Jacob, D
    SMHI.
    Jauja, I
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Keevallik, S
    Koistinen, J
    van Lammeren, A
    Lass, U
    Launianen, J
    Lehmann, A
    Liljebladh, B
    Lobmeyr, M
    Matthaus, W
    Mengelkamp, T
    Michelson, Daniel
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Napiorkowski, J
    Omstedt, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Piechura, J
    Rockel, B
    Rubel, F
    Ruprecht, E
    Smedman, A S
    Stigebrandt, A
    The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX): A European contribution to the investigation of the energy and water cycle over a large drainage basin2001In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 82, no 11, p. 2389-2413Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) is one of the five continental-scale experiments of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). More than 50 research groups from 14 European countries are participating in this project to measure and model the energy and water cycle over the large drainage basin of the Baltic Sea in northern Europe. BALTEX aims to provide a better understanding of the processes of the climate system and to improve and to validate the water cycle in regional numerical models for weather forecasting and climate studies. A major effort is undertaken to couple interactively the atmosphere with the vegetated continental surfaces and the Baltic Sea including its sea ice. The intensive observational and modeling phase BRIDGE, which is a contribution to the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period of GEWEX, will provide enhanced datasets for the period October 1999-February 2002 to validate numerical models and satellite products. Major achievements have been obtained in an improved understanding of related exchange processes. For the first time an interactive atmosphere-ocean-land surface model for the Baltic Sea was tested. This paper reports on major activities and some results.

  • 373. Rasmus, S
    et al.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lehning, M
    Estimating snow conditions in Finland in the late 21st century using the SNOWPACK model with regional climate scenario data as input2004In: ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY, VOL 38 2004, 2004, p. 238-244Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An assessment of possible snow changes in a changing climate for Finland is presented. The snowpack structure model SNOWPACK (developed at the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research) was used for calculating snow conditions at six different locations in Finland for the decades 1980-89 and 2080-89. Regional climate model (RCAO) data from the Rossby Centre, Sweden, were used as input to the SNOWPACK model. Ten years from the RCAO control run and scenario run Were chosen, and the snow conditions for different snow zones were calculated for these winters. The snow-cover depth and duration decreased at all locations in the scenario run cases, and the snow-cover quality also changed between the control and scenario runs: grains were bigger, snow was warmer and denser, and the fraction of faceted snow decreased while the fraction of icy or melting snow increased, even in mid-winter. Finally, the variability between different global climate predictions was analyzed. Significant differences were found between different climate-model outputs. The inter-model variable is comparable to the interannual variability of a single model. The qualitative Conclusions from the scenario run do not critically depend oil the climate-model variability.

  • 374. Raty, Olle
    et al.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Intercomparison of Univariate and Joint Bias Correction Methods in Changing Climate From a Hydrological Perspective2018In: Climate, ISSN 2053-7565, E-ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 6, no 2, article id 33Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 375. Refsgaard, J. C.
    et al.
    Madsen, H.
    Andreassian, V.
    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.
    Davidson, T. A.
    Drews, M.
    Hamilton, D. P.
    Jeppesen, E.
    Kjellstrom, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Olesen, J. E.
    Sonnenborg, T. O.
    Trolle, D.
    Willems, P.
    Christensen, J. H.
    A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts2014In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 122, no 1-2, p. 271-282Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

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  • 376. Rex, M
    et al.
    von der Gathen, P
    Harris, N R P
    Lucic, D
    Knudsen, B M
    Braathen, G O
    Reid, S J
    De Backer, H
    Claude, H
    Fabian, R
    Fast, H
    Gil, M
    Kyro, E
    Mikkelsen, I S
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Smit, H G
    Stahelin, J
    Varotsos, C
    Zaitcev, I
    In situ measurements of stratospheric ozone depletion rates in the Arctic winter 1991/1992: A Lagrangian approach1998In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 103, no D5, p. 5843-5853Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A Lagrangian approach has been used to assess the degree of chemically induced ozone loss in the Arctic lower stratosphere in winter 1991/1992. Trajectory calculations are used to identify air parcels probed by two ozonesondes at different points along the trajectories. A statistical analysis of the measured differences in ozone mixing ratio and the time the air parcel spent in sunlight between the measurements provides the chemical ozone loss. Initial results were first described by von der Gathen et al. [1995]. Here we present a more detailed description of the technique and a more comprehensive discussion of the results. Ozone loss rates of up to 10 ppbv per sunlit hour (or 54 ppbv per day) were found inside the polar vortex on the 475 K potential temperature surface (about 19.5 km in altitude) at the end of January. The period of rapid ozone loss coincides and slightly lags a period when temperatures were cold enough for type I polar stratospheric clouds to form. It is shown that the ozone loss occurs exclusively during the sunlit portions of the trajectories. The time evolution and vertical distribution of the ozone loss rates are discussed.

  • 377. Righi, Mattia
    et al.
    Andela, Bouwe
    Eyring, Veronika
    Lauer, Axel
    Predoi, Valeriu
    Schlund, Manuel
    Vegas-Regidor, Javier
    Bock, Lisa
    Broetz, Bjorn
    de Mora, Lee
    Diblen, Faruk
    Dreyer, Laura
    Drost, Niels
    Earnshaw, Paul
    Hassler, Birgit
    Koldunov, Nikolay
    Little, Bill
    Tomas, Saskia Loosveldt
    Zimmermann, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0-technical overview2020In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 13, no 3, p. 1179-1199Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 378. Rodhe, H
    et al.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Gallardo, L
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Global scale transport of acidifying pollutants1995In: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, ISSN 0049-6979, E-ISSN 1573-2932, Vol. 85, no 1, p. 37-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    During the past few years several attempts have been made to use three-dimensional tracer transport models to simulate the global distribution of sulfur and nitrogen compounds from both natural and anthropogenic sources. We review these studies and show examples of estimated distributions of the total deposition of sulfur, oxidized nitrogen and ammonium as well as the pH of precipitation. The simulated patterns are compared with observations. Weaknesses in these estimates resulting from lack of knowledge of emissions, chemical transformations and removal processes are emphasized and discussed. We also show examples of how the models can be used to estimate past and future deposition patterns. In particular, we use the IPCC scenario IS92a to estimate the possible sulfur deposition around the world in the year 2050. A comparison with critical load values for sulfur deposition indicates that substantial parts of South and East Asia are at risk for acidification problems in the future.

  • 379. Roth, Matthias
    et al.
    Jansson, Christer
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Velasco, Erik
    Multi-year energy balance and carbon dioxide fluxes over a residential neighbourhood in a tropical city2017In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 37, no 5, p. 2679-2698Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 380. Ruete, Alejandro
    et al.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Stenseth, Nils Chr.
    Snall, Tord
    Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte2012In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 279, no 1740, p. 3098-3105Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)-regional climate model-population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural-and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.

  • 381.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Methods for statistical downscaling of GCM simulations1997Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to study the change of climate due to increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As GCMs operate on !arge spatial scales, and, furthermore, as the GCM-simulated temporal resolution corresponds to monthly averages at best, the usefulness of GCM data in impact studies and other applications is limited. The present-day free troposphere is modeled relatively well by the coarse GCMs, whereas local or even regional characteristics in surface or near-surface climate variables, their variability and the likelihood of extreme events cannot be obtained directly from GCMs. The same is likely true in the case of climate change experiments with GCMs. The results from GCMs can be superimposed on climatological local­ scale time series or interpreted in some other way in order to address the needs of impact studies. This is known as "downscaling" of GCM simulations. In this survey, five different downscaling methods are introduced. These are the conventional, the statistical, the stochastic, the dynamical and the composite methods. Only the statistical and, to a lesser extent, the stochastic approaches are discussed in detail. This survey is a planning document in the SWECLIM program.

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  • 382.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    On the Climate Change debate1999Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The debate on the 'science of climate change' focuses mainly on 1) whether the climate is changing and 2) if mankind's activities play a role in climate change. This report was written after the symposium on "Man-made versus natural climate change; Changes in climate during the past 100 years from a Holocene perspective" at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, March 1999, where these issues were also dealt with. The report provides same additional background, review of same recent work on climate and includes some more philosophical reflections as well. The following topics are addressed, in same detail:

    • introduction to the climate change debatewhat is known of climate (change)
    • what is known of climate ( change) in the near past and in geological time scales
    • how climate variability and climate change are interrelated
    • what factors force climate ( change and/or variability)
    • same observations relevant to the climate change debate
    • same recent climate modeling relevant to the climate change debate
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  • 383.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Recent Development of a Regional Air/Land Surface/Sea/Ice Coupling Modeling System, “the RCAO Experience”2004In: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, 2004, p. 148-149Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 384.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Reflections on the uncertainty in climate scenarios.2005In: Uncertainty and Active Risk Management and Forestry / [ed] Kristina Blennow, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet. Institutionen för sydsvensk skogsvetenskap , 2005, p. 22-24Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 385.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Växthuseffekten2005Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Växthuseffekten är en grundläggande egenskap hos jordens klimat. Växthuseffekten påverkar den globala strålningsbalansen, dvs. balansen mellan inkommande solstrålning och utgående värmestrålning. Därmed är växthuseffekten viktig för jordens energibalans och således vårt klimat. En naturlig växthuseffekt har så gott som alltid funnits på jorden, tack vare naturligt förekommande vattenånga och koldioxid i atmosfären. Den naturliga växthuseffekten har också varierat genom tiderna. Med den förstärkta växthuseffekten menas idag en ökning i växthuseffekten som är utöver naturliga variationer. Växthuseffektens förstärkning beror på utsläpp av koldioxid och andra växthusgaser som ger ändringar i atmosfärens sammansättning. De klimatförändringar som det resulterar i uppstår när klimatsystemet strävar efter att återskapa strålningsbalansen. Den kanske mest omtalade förändringen är att det blir varmare vid jordens yta. Klimatets förändring vid en förstärkt växthuseffekt är dock komplex och omfattar flera aspekter av klimatsystemet.Denna skrift behandlar växthuseffekten någorlunda grundligt. Den är avsedd för läsare utan fackkunskaper om klimatet. Klimatfrågan är mångfacetterad. Växthuseffekten ingår i dess naturvetenskapliga grund och insikt i växthuseffekten bör kunna bidra till debatten och arbetet med klimatfrågan.

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  • 386.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Källén, Erland
    Meterologi.
    Moen, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rodhe, J.
    SMHI.
    Tjernström, M
    SWECLIM - The First Three Years2000Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Regional Clirnate Modeling Program (SWECLIM) is a 6-year national research effort with the airn of providing the Swedish society with more detailed regional climate scenarios than typically available from international global clirnate rnodel simulations. The background is the perceived further enhancernent of the greenhouse effect that is projected to lead to global warming and other changes m the clirnate systern. SWECLIM provides users within governmental organizations, businesses, political decision-rnaking, as well as media and the general public with expertise and synthesis of clirnate change issues, science, results and the detailed regional climate scenarios, to further the understanding of the future changes, to facilitate planning and realization of rnitigation and/or adaptation measures. This requires developrnent and use of regionalization techniques, regional rnodeling tools and other studies of the relevant regional processes and collected data. Apart from hydrological interpretation done of the clirnate scenarios, SWECLIM does not perfonn irnpact studies. Additional concretization of the clirnate scenarios by externa! groups, who possess branch-specific irnpact assessrnent expertise, is supported and encouraged by SWECLIM.

    This report describes the background of the SWECLIM-prograrn, the work undertaken during program phase 1,l asting from 1997 to June 2000. The model developrnent, the prepared regional climate and water resources scenarios, results from statistical downscaling and basic process studies and data analyses, as well as the interaction with users and media are covered. Finally, a brief introduction to the program phase 2 plans are provided.

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  • 387.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Persson, Gunn
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Ressner, Elisabet
    SMHI.
    Anpassning till klimatförändringar: Kartläggning av arbete med sårbarhetsanalyser, anpassningsbehov och anpassningsåtgärder i Sverige till framtida klimatförändring2005Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport är resultatet av ett uppdrag från Naturvårdsverket till SMHI (NV dnr 235-5045-04H k), som genomförts under hösten 2004. Syftet är att få en överblick över vilka aktörer som för närvarande är aktiva med att analysera eventuella effekter på samhället och att kartlägga anpassningsbehov. Avsikten är också att få en bild av planerade eller redan genomförda insatser och skyddsåtgärder på grund av en befarad klimatförändring. Kartläggningen omfattar ett flertal svenska myndigheter, företag samt ett antal relevanta bransch- och intresseorganisationer och forskningsfinansiärer.I rapporten redovisas även översiktligt de hinder i anpassningsarbetet som identifierats samt önskemål om förbättrat beslutsunderlag.Slutligen förs en översiktlig diskussion om tänkbara sektoriella effekter avav klimatförändringen, baserad på tidigare avnämarkontakter och forskningsinsatser inom området

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  • 388.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Persson, Gunn
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Rodhe, J
    Tjernstrom, M
    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: A review2004In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, no 4-5, p. 176-182Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

  • 389.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    PRUDENCE-related regional climate modeling at the SMHI/Rossby Centre2002In: PRUDENCE kick-off meeting / [ed] Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Danish Climate Centre DMI, Ministry of Transport , 2002, p. 40-41Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 390.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hewitt, Chris
    Jacob, Daniela
    The ENSEMBLES and the BALTEX Projects2007Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 391.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Isaksen, I S A
    Rognerud, B
    Stordal, F
    A global model tool for three-dimensional multiyear stratospheric chemistry simulations: Model description and first results1999In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 104, no D21, p. 26437-26456Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper presents a new global modeling tool, Stratospheric Chemical Transport Model 2. It has been developed for effective three-dimensional multiyear stratospheric chemistry studies, featuring an extensive chemistry scheme, heterogeneous processing on sulfate aerosols, and some polar stratospheric cloud processes. The transport algorithm maintains sub-grid-scale distributions and connects vertically the stratospheric layers, even in a coarse vertical grid. The model has been integrated for 49 months, recycling 1 year of precalculated transport from a middle atmosphere general circulation model. One year of daily National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used as temperatures. Diurnal cycles of photolysis rates are recalculated every 7 days to give interaction with ozone changes. The model is able to describe most of the geographical and seasonal ozone variability and the meridional distributions of ozone, reactive nitrogen, chlorine, and bromine. Stratospheric diurnal cycles for nitrogen, hydrogen, chlorine, and bromine species are captured in detail. The upper stratosphere ozone deficiency, typical to models, is large. Its sensitivity to different ways of tuning are explored. Midlatitude, rather than polar, wintertime processes have so far been the focus in this model tool. The present transport and grid resolution are not suited for realistic simulations at high latitudes. As there is only a limited inclusion of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) microphysics, chemical processing in the cold polar lower stratosphere also cannot be well simulated. For example, the Antarctic ozone hole is not simulated, but the modeled chemistry should be suitable for warm Arctic winters when type II PSCs and particle sedimentation do not occur.

  • 392.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Johansson, Daniel J.A.
    Institutionen för energi och miljö, avdelningen för fysisk resursteori, Chalmers.
    Azar, Christian
    Institutionen för energi och miljö, avdelningen för fysisk resursteori, Chalmers.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Smith, Henrik
    Centrum för miljö och klimatforskning, Lunds universitet.
    Uppdatering av den vetenskapliga grunden för klimatarbetet2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Det naturvetenskapliga kunskapsläget om klimatförändringarna förbättrats ständigt genom forskningen om klimatsystemet, klimatpåverkan, klimatets variationer och förändringar samt klimateffekter. Kunskapsläget är väletablerat när det gäller den grundläggande fysiken bakom växthuseffekten, liksom att genomsnittstemperaturen vid jordytan stigit de senaste femtio åren. Det är också mycket sannolikt att det mesta av den observerade uppvärmningen beror på mänsklig klimatpåverkan. Samtidigt finns det betydande osäkerheter när det gäller konsekvenserna av klimatförändringarna samt hur mycket utsläppen behöver minska för att man ska nå ett givet klimatmål. Värdet på klimatkänsligheten är den viktigaste faktorn för beräkningar av hur mycket växthusgaser vi kan släppa ut, givet ett visst temperaturmål. Forskningen visar att det behövs stora och snabba utsläppsminskningar för att uppnå tvågradersmålet. För att nå ett lägre temperaturmål, till exempel ett 1,5-gradersmål, är de nödvändiga utsläppsminskningarna än mer omfattande.  För att nå tvågradersmålet med en sannolikhet runt 70 % krävs uppskattningsvis att de globala växthusgasutsläppen minskar i storleksordningen 50‒60 % från år 2000 till 2050, och minskar med nära 100 % till 2100.  För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med en sannolikhet runt 70 % krävs globala nollutsläpp redan runt år 2050.  För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med en sannolikhet runt 50 % krävs uppskattningsvis att de globala växthusgasutsläppen minskar i storleksordningen 80 % från år 2000 till 2050, och med nära 100 % till 2100. Det är framför allt de kumulativa utsläppen av koldioxid och andra långlivade växthusgaser som räknas när det gäller hur stora klimatförändringarna blir bortom 2100. Ju senare de globala utsläppen kulminerar, och ju högre nivå de då är på, desto större blir utmaningen för att åstadkomma en tillräckligt snabb påföljande utsläppsminskningstakt. Reducerade utsläpp av kortlivade klimatpåverkande ämnen är viktigt främst i ett kortare perspektiv. Det finns olika modeller för hur de globala utsläppsminskningarna kan fördelas mellan olika regioner och länder. Dessa baseras inte på naturvetenskapliga principer utan är beroende av politiska och andra ställningstaganden. För en del länder skiljer sig resultaten mycket beroende på valet av fördelningsmodell. För de flesta industriländer är slutsatsen dock generellt sett densamma: jämfört med idag behöver deras utsläpp minska mycket kraftigt.  För att nå tvågradersmålet med i storleksordningen 70 % sannolikhet krävs, givet en globalt lika per capita fördelning av utsläppen från och med 2050, att utsläppen i Sverige minskar med cirka 70 % från år 2005 till 2050. Den motsvarande siffran för EU är cirka 80 %.  För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med i storleksordningen 70 % sannolikhet krävs, givet en globalt lika per capita fördelning av utsläppen från och med 2050, att utsläppen minskar från år 2005 till år 2050 med runt 100 % i Sverige och i EU, och i andra länder.  För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med i storleksordningen 50 % sannolikhet krävs, givet en globalt lika per capita fördelning av utsläppen från och med 2050, att utsläppen i Sverige och EU minskar med drygt 90 % från år 2005 till 2050. Nettoutsläpp av koldioxid från avskogning och utrikes luft- och sjöfart ingår inte i dessa uppskattningar. Generellt blir riskerna för allvarliga klimateffekter mindre ju mer ambitiöst temperaturmål som väljs, men riskerna försvinner inte med tvågradersmålet, och inte ens med ett 1,5-gradersmål. Jämfört med IPCC:s AR4 från 2007, har nya forskningsresultat publicerats om klimateffekter. I denna rapport har vi fokuserat på havsnivåhöjningen, havsförsurningen, den biologiska mångfalden samt klimateffekter i Arktis. Jämfört med genomgången av kunskapsläget i AR4 visar nya resultat att den framtida havsnivåhöjningen kan bli större, havsförsurningens effekter på marina ekosystem omfattande och även om en del arter kan vara anpassningsbara, kan världens ekosystem påverkas av skillnader i olika arters sårbarhet för klimatförändringarna. I Arktis sker snabba förändringar. Sammantaget ter sig riskerna för allvarliga klimateffekter större jämfört med AR4. Denna rapport utgår från naturvetenskaplig klimatforskning sedan 2007. Rapporten förordar inte något specifikt temperaturmål, någon specifik utsläppsbana eller specifika policybeslut. Dessa är föremål för politiska avgöranden.

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  • 393.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Rockel, Burkhardt
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
    Reckermann, Marcus
    Twenty-First-Century Challenges in Regional Climate Modeling2015In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 96, no 8, p. ES135-ES138Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 394.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ruosteenoja, K
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system: A comprehensive report resulting from a Nordic Energy Research project2007Report (Other academic)
  • 395.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bjorge, D
    Christensen, J H
    Christensen, O B
    Iversen, T
    Jylha, K
    Olafsson, H
    Tuomenvirta, H
    Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies2003In: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 34, no 5, p. 399-412Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

  • 396.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bringfelt, Björn
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Omstedt, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations2001In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 17, no 5-6, p. 339-359Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model(RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

  • 397.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bringfelt, Björn
    SMHI.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    RCA - Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model: model description and results from the first multi-year simulation1997Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The first version of the Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA) has now been developed. The RCA model is based on a parallel coding of the operational weather forecast model HIRLAM. Some modifications have been done on the model formulation, especially in its surface/snow/soil scheme, in an attempt to include the regional and local scale climate-modifying forcing up to time scales of several years. The physical parameterization choices in HIRLAM and in RCA are discussed in some detail. One of the notable features in RCA is that the regional sea ice climate, as well as ice on the numerous lakes in the region, has been included in a crude, but time-efficient fashion. It appears that realistic modeling of the sea/lake ice is most important for modeling the regional climate in the Nordic region.

    The RCA model has been run fora ten-year period, focusing on the Nordic region, using results from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. In this first multi-year simulation, the regional resolution was 44 km.  Several results are illustrated from this regional simulation and they are compared to the driving global model data, to analyzed observations and to Swedish station data for the 1961-90 period. The apparent model development needs are also discussed briefly.

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  • 398.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    SWECLIM participants, SWECLIM participants
    The Swedish regional climate modeling program 1996-2003: Final report2003Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modeling Program (SWECLIM) was a 6.5-year national research effort with the aim of providing the Swedish society with more detailed regional climate scenarios than those available from international global climate mode! simulations. SWECLIM built up a new scientific niche in Sweden, namely that of climate modeling, provided users with regionally detailed climate scenarios, expert advice and synthesis of climate changescience. Regional climate modeling was a major activity, supported with studies of climate processes as well as on observed data on the Baltic Sea, regional hydrology and meteorology. The major impact study part was on hydrological modeling, to elaborate the potential impact of regional-scale climate change on hydropower, dam safety and water resources in general. Other types of impact studies were not performed by SWECLIM itself, but means were provided for outside experts to pursue such knowledge. This fmihered the general understanding of climate change and created new insights into planning processes, especially in Sweden, but also on theNordic, European and global arenas.Examples of practical users of the results were experts and decision-makers within national, regional and local administration, organizations, businesses, politicians, as well as media and the general public. These Swedish cfforts on climate science also contributed to international research and assessment networks, and to the quest for better knowledge base to act on in dealing with the climate problem.This repor! provides the final reporting of the SWECLIM-program, building on earlier reports and complements the results published in scientific journals, as reports, presented in meetings and provided to the general public. The focus here is on the work undertaken <luring program phase 2, lasting from July 2000 to June 2003.

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    fulltext
  • 399.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    A comparison between long term measured and modeled sensible heat and momentum fluxes using a High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM)2000In: Meteorologische Zeitschrift, ISSN 0941-2948, E-ISSN 1610-1227, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 31-39Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to study the surface fluxes obtained by a High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), used for weather forecasts. The question arises whether the quality of the fluxes are high enough to make HIRLAM a proper tool for performing calculations of the water and energy budgets over the Baltic Sea, which is one of the aims of the BALTEX project. Turbulent fluxes modeled by HIRLAM are compared with direct flux measurements over sea for an extended time period. The model is shown to overestimate both sensible heat and momentum flux for the studied period. The sensible heat Aux for the studied period is overestimated by 8.1 W/m(2) and the momentum flux is systematically overestimated by 0.03 kg/ms(2) or 50 %. It is shown that the values of parameters in the surface parameterization scheme can be improved, for example will a lower value of the Charnock's coefficient agree better with the measurements. The sensitivity of the surface scheme to changes in mean parameters is studied. It is also shown that it is of great importance to have correct values of the near surface wind speed and the temperature difference between air and sea to obtain correct fluxes.

  • 400.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bumke, K
    Clemens, M
    Foltescu, Valentin
    SMHI.
    Lindau, R
    Michelson, Daniel
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Omstedt, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Precipitation estimates over the Baltic Sea: Present state of the art2001In: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 32, no 4-5, p. 285-314Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Precipitation is one of the main components in the water balance, and probably the component determined with the greatest uncertainties. In the present paper we focus on precipitation (mainly rain) over the Baltic Sea as a part of the BAL-TEX project to examine the present state of the art concerning different precipitation estimates over that area. Several methods are used, with the focus on 1) interpolation of available synoptic stations; 2) a mesoscale analysis system including synoptic, automatic, and climate stations, as well as weather radar and an atmospheric model; and 3) measurements performed on ships. The investigated time scales are monthly and yearly and also some long-term considerations are discussed. The comparison shows that the differences between most of the estimates, when averaged over an extended period and a larger area, are in the order of 10-20%, which is in the same range as the correction of the synoptic gauge measurements due to wind and evaporation losses. In all data sets using gauge data it is important to include corrections for high winds. To improve the structure of precipitation over sea more focus is to be put on the use of radar data and combinations of radar data and other data. Interpolation methods that do not consider orographic effects must treat areas with large horizontal precipitation gradients with care. Due to the large variability in precipitation in time and space, it is important to use long time periods for climate estimates of precipitation. Ship measurements are a valuable contribution to precipitation information over sea, especially for seasonal and annual time scales.

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