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  • 321.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Sanner, Håkan
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Influence of river regulation on runoff to the Gulf of Bothnia: Gulf of Bothnia Year 19911994Report (Other academic)
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  • 322.
    Brandt, Maja
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    INTEGRATION OF FIELD DATA INTO OPERATIONAL SNOWMELT-RUNOFF MODELS1994In: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 25, no 1-2, p. 101-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Conceptual runoff models have become standard tools for operational hydrological forecasting in Scandinavia. These models are normally based on observations from the national climatological networks, but in mountainous areas the stations are few and sometimes not representative. Due to the great economic importance of good hydrological forecasts for the hydro-power industry attempts have been made to improve the model simulations by support from field observations of the snowpack. The snowpack has been mapped by several methods; airborne gamma-spectrometry, airborne georadars, satellites and by conventional snow courses. The studies cover more than ten years of work in Sweden. The conclusion is that field observations of the snow cover have a potential for improvement of the forecasts of inflow to the reservoirs in the mountainous part of the country, where the climatological data coverages is poor. This is pronounced during years with unusual snow distribution. The potential for model improvement is smaller in the climatologically more homogeneous forested lowlands, where the climatological network is denser. The costs of introduction of airborne observations into the modelling procedure are high and can only be justified in areas of great hydropower potential.

  • 323.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wittgren, Hans Bertil
    SMHI, Research Department.
    MODELING THE EFFECTS OF WETLANDS ON REGIONAL NITROGEN TRANSPORT1994In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 23, no 6, p. 378-386Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Created wetlands have been suggested as a method to reduce nitrogen transport to the Baltic Sea. This paper presents a dynamic conceptual model for simulation of the hypothetical effect of wetlands on nitrogen export to the coastal zone. The study was performed in the Soder-kopingsan drainage basin (882 km(2)) in southeastern Sweden, discharging into the Baltic Sea. An empirically based routine for wetland retention was calibrated separately and incorporated in the model. Scenarios with different location and size of wetlands were analyzed. It was estimated that conversion of 1% (8.8 km(2)) of this basin into wetlands would reduce the nitrogen transport by 10-16% and that more than 5% (45 km(2)) conversion to wetlands is required to reduce the transport by 50%. It was concluded that creation of wetlands should be considered, primarily, downstream from major lakes, in coastal areas, and where the summer load is a significant portion of the annual load. Some further conclusions from the study were that: i) the net reduction of nitrogen transport per unit area of wetland decreases with increasing total area of wetlands in a drainage basin; ii) the wetland retention efficiency obtained in studies of individual wetlands can not be extrapolated in a linear fashion to estimate the net reduction of nitrogen transport at the mouth of a whole drainage basin; iii) the seasonal hydrological and hydrochemical dynamics are of fundamental importance for wetland retention efficiency, which complicates comparison and extrapolation of results from one region to another.

  • 324.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    RIVER RUNOFF TO THE BALTIC SEA - 1950-19901994In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 23, no 4-5, p. 280-287Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A database of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The database covers the period 1950-1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries. The main features of the database are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short-term variabilities are analyzed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier database by Mikulski is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921-1990. It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981-1990 was the wettest in 70 years. Wet years are also found in the 1920s. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.

  • 325.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Alkalinitets- och pH-förändringar i Ume-älven orsakade av minimitappning1993Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    lnfluence of regulated minimum discharge on alkalinity and pH in river Umeälven At present the Swedish State Power Board is building a hydropower plant at Klippen in river Umeälven south of lake Överurnan. The plant is intended to be in operation <luring 1994. In connection with the start the discharge will be minimized at an about 10 km long river section between the outlet from Överurnan and Klippen. This interference will lead to a decrease of the alkalinity and pH values at the river section in question. In order to reduce the consequences as far as possible, minimum releases of 2. 0 m 3 /s from 1 J une to 15 September and 0. 5 m3 /s <luring the rest of the year have been suggested. Model simulations of pH and alk:alinity have been made for the period 1984- 91. The results show that the alk:alinity decreases from the lowest annual values of 0.05 - 0.06 mekv/1 to 0.02 - 0.03 mekv/1, which corresponds to a reduction of the pH values from 6.6 – 6 .7 to 6.2 - 6.3.

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  • 326.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Floods in Sweden – Trends and occurrence1993Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sweden experienced a number of large floods in the 1980-ies. This raised the question of whether floods were becoming more frequent. A systematic study on floods was carried out, to provide a perspective to past and future floods. Frequency analysis was made using 16 methods. A split-sample test was used for evaluation of the predictive power of the methods. Numerical criteria were used for measuring the goodness of fit. The return periods of observed floods were estirnated by use of plotting positions.

    No convincing evidence of trends was found. The 1980-ies had larger floods than usual, where as the 1970-ies had few high floods, especially, in the auturnn. This may have led to the, irnpression of a trend. No evidence of autocorrelation or periodicity was found. For most of Sweden, the spring was found to be the season with highest extremes. The flood-moderating effect of regulation was illustrated, although floods were also found to occur in regulated systems. The results from the frequency analysis depended on the choice of criteria. In general, however, distributions with two parameters performed best. Neither a two component model treating spring and autumn separately, three parameter distributions, nor regional analyses gave any irnprovements. The spatial correlation within the data was considerable.

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  • 327.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hydrology of the Baltic Basin: Inflow of fresh water from rivers and land for the period 1950–19901993Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A data base of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The data base covers the period 1950 - 1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries.

    The main features of the data base are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short term variabilities are analysed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier data base by Mikulski (1982) is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921 - 1990.

    It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981 - 1990 is the wettest in 70 years. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.

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  • 328.
    Lindström, Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Harlin, Joakim
    SMHI.
    Olofsson, Judith
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Uppföljning av Flödeskommitténs riktlinjer1993Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Flödeskommittens förslag till nya riktlinjer för bestämning av dimensionerande flöden för dammanläggningar utkom 1990. Kontrollberäkningar enligt riktlinjerna visar att de dimensionerande flödena för hösten ligger något lägre än de preliminära beräkningarna i Flödeskommittens rapport. Medelvärdet av de uppmätta flödena i relation till de dimensionerande är med det nu tillgängliga materialet 43% för våren och 40% för hösten. Det finns inga tydliga skillnader i säkerhetsmarginal mellan olika delar av landet, eller mellan vår och höst. Trots detta finns det en relativt stor spridning mellan stationerna.Samtidigheten mellan hög snösmältning och hög nederbörd studerades. Resultaten visar att de två faktorerna sällan uppträder samtidigt. Genom att man i en dimensioneringsberäkning kombinerar kraftig snösmältning och extrem nederbörd fås en avsevärd säkerhetsmarginal, trots att ingen av de två faktorerna har extrapolerats utanför det observerade. De högsta flödena i oreglerade vattendrag i Norrland skapas i första hand av snösmältning. En mindre del av flödena är kombinationsflöden, och en ännu mindre andel domineras av regn. Höstflödena, som vanligtvis är lägre, domineras dock av regn. I södra Sverige orsakas de högsta flödena ofta av kombinationer av regn och snösmältning.Det är mycket svårt att fastställa återkomsttiden för de dimensionerande flödena med någon större precision. Man kan inte förutsätta att de dimensionerande flödena har samma återkomsttid överallt. Det mesta talar dock för att återkomsttiden överstiger 10 000 år med god marginal i de flesta områdena. Risken för att ett dimensionerande flöde skall uppträda någonstans i landet under en hundraårsperiod, bör vara mycket liten. Säkerhetsmarginalen, eller återkomsttiden, tycks ligga på ungefär samma nivå för våren som för hösten. Det är mycket svårt att uppskatta de dimensionerande flödenas återkomsttid genom att utgå från återkomsttiden för det dimensionerande regnet på 24 timmar. Detta beror på att regnets återkomsttid ej är känd och att de högsta flödena i landet till största delen orsakas av snösmältning eller långvarigt regn.Ett något mer homogent resultat vad beträffar det 30 åriga snötäcket i en dimensioncringsberäkning erhölls då snötäckena uppdaterades med hjälp av den uppmätta vattenföringsserien. Underlaget är dock ganska begränsat. Den justering av 30-årssnön som erhölls i de 2 testade områdena innebar en justering av tillrinningsmaximum med knappt 2%. En ny förbättrad avdunstningsrutin i HBV-modellen, hade obetydlig effekt på de  dimensionerande flödena på våren. De dimensionerande höstflödena i södra samt östra Sverige blev I0 - 22 % högre med den nya avdunstningsfunktionen.De höga flödena under sommaren 1993 var i flera av de reglerade Norrlandsälvarna exceptionellt höga för årstiden, men däremot inte i förhållande till oreglerade vårflöden. Exempelvis skulle sommarens flödesnivå i Luleälven uppnås ungefär vart femte år om älven hade varit oreglerad. Nederbördsmängdema på ett dygn låg långt under Flödeskommittens dimensionerande värden. Tillrinningstoppen till Parki och Letsi i Luleälvenanalyserades närmare. Långvarigt regn, och inte snösmältning, var den utlösande faktorn för flödestoppen.

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  • 329.
    Harlin, Joakim
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Sundby, Mikael
    SMHI.
    Brandesten, Claes-Olof
    Vattenfall Hydropower AB.
    Känslighetsanalys av Flödeskommitténs riktlinjer för dimensionering av hel älv1992Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    En känslighetsanalys av Flödeskommittens riktlinjer för beräkning av dimensionerande

    flöden tillämpade på flermagasinssystemet i Ljusnan redovisas. Simuleringarna har gjorts med hjälp av ett modell.system baserat på HBV-modellen, som kompletterats med regleringsstrategier. Det 14 560 km 2 stora avrinningsområdet delades in i 16 delområden. Vid tre kraftverksdammar studerades känsligheten hos de dimensionerande vattennivåerna med hänsyn tagen till ändringar i de föreskrivna riktlinjerna, regleringsstrategier

    och modellparametrar. Förändringar i den dimensionerande nederbörden, snömagasinet

    eller utskovskapaciteten hade betydande inverkan på högsta vattenståndet i alla tre

    magasinen. Ändringar i regleringsstrategierna hade mindre effekt. Den högsta recessionsparametern i HBV-modellen,

    Ko, hade stor inverkan på de dimensionerande vattennivåerna. Efter det att magasinet fyllts, syntes ett klart samband mellan högsta tillrinning och maximal vattennivå. Studien visar, att det är svårt att förutbestämma den integrerade effekten av extrem nederbörd, snösmältning, markfuktighetstillstånd och reglering i ett system.

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  • 330.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Harlin, Joakim
    SMHI.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    SPILLWAY DESIGN FLOODS IN SWEDEN .1. NEW GUIDELINES1992In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 37, no 5, p. 505-519Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The new Swedish guidelines for the estimation of design floods for dams and spillways are presented, with emphasis on high-hazard dams. The method is based on a set of regional design precipitation sequences, rescaled for basin area, season and elevation above sea level, and a full hydrological model. A reservoir operation strategy is also a fundamental component of the guidelines. The most critical combination of flood generating factors is searched by systematically inserting the design precipitation sequence into a ten year climatological record, where the initial snowpack has been replaced by a statistical 30-year snowpack. The new guidelines are applicable to single reservoir systems as well as more complex hydroelectric schemes, and cover snowmelt floods, rain floods and combinations of the two. In order to study the probabilities of the computed floods and to avoid regional inconsistencies, extensive comparisons with observed floods and frequency analyses have been carried out.

  • 331.
    Lindström, Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Harlin, Joakim
    SMHI.
    SPILLWAY DESIGN FLOODS IN SWEDEN .2. APPLICATIONS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS1992In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 37, no 5, p. 521-539Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The recently developed guidelines for design flood calculation in Sweden are based on simulation with a hydrological model. Several meteorological and hydrological conditions are prescribed as input to the model. The sensitivity of the floods according to the new guidelines with respect to those prescriptions is checked as well as the sensitivity to the modelling procedure. In this paper, the HBV hydrological model is used. It is shown that the most sensitive input factor is the design 14-day precipitation sequence. For autumn floods, the scaling relation between the precipitation sequence and the generated floods is in the order of 1:1. For spring floods on the other hand, snowmelt influences the flood magnitude and reduces the sensitivity to precipitation to about 1:0.6. Soil moisture modelling was important in basins with high evapotranspiration. Model calibration could have a large effect on the design flood magnitude. The most sensitive parameter was the high flow recession coefficient, K0. The water stage development in a multi-reservoir system is further influenced by the regulation strategy and spillway capacity. An increased spillway capacity can improve the situation considerably for a particular dam but could at the same time worsen the situation for downstream dams. After the filling of the reservoir there was a clear relation between inflow peak and maximum water stage. The study shows that it is difficult to assess the integrated effects of extreme precipitation, snowmelt, soil moisture status and regulation in a system beforehand.

  • 332.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    The HBV model – its structure and applications1992Report (Other academic)
  • 333.
    Lindström, Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    RODHE, A
    TRANSIT TIMES OF WATER IN SOIL LYSIMETERS FROM MODELING OF O-181992In: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, ISSN 0049-6979, E-ISSN 1573-2932, Vol. 65, no 1-2, p. 83-100Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A proper description of water pathways and transit times is important in the simulation of groundwater acidification using hydrochemical models. A simple water balance model, describing water flow and transit times in different soil layers, was developed and tested by the use of the stable isotope O-18 as a natural tracer in soil lysimeters. Drainage was collected from lysimeters of three depths: 15, 40, and 80 cm, from two sites in the Stubbetorp research basin in south-eastern Sweden. The content of O-18 in the precipitation and in the drainage from the lysimeters was measured during 2 yr. O-18 was regarded as an ideal tracer, and its concentration in the drainage was modeled using the concentration in the precipitation as input. The percolation from each soil layer was assumed to depend on the inflow and the soil moisture storage in the layer. The most important model parameter, the field capacity, was derived from field information. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model was rather insensitive to other parameter values. Although simple, the model gave good results, both for the flow of water and O-18. The best results were obtained, when ideal mixing in the upper horizons of the soil was combined with piston flow at greater depths. Preferential flow was not found to be of great importance, nor was immobile water. Particle flow velocities and transit times in the soil lysimeters were simulated. The average particle flow velocities were about 0.6 cm d-1. The use of a dynamic model made it possible to simulate the temporal variations in transit times for water in the soil lysimeters. The mean transit times for the 80 cm lysimeter ranged from about 3 to 6 mo with an average value of 4 mo.

  • 334.
    Rodriquez, Mercedes
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Johansson, Barbro
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Planos, Eduardo
    INRH Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidraulicos.
    Remont, Alfredo
    INRH Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidraulicos.
    Aplicacion del modelo HBV a la cuenca del Río Cauto en Cuba1991Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The work deseribed in this report, was done in eollaboration between the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrologieal Institute (SMID) and the Instituto Nacional de Reeursos Hidraulieos de Cuba (INRH), with financial support from the Swedish Ageney for Teehnieal and Eeonomie Cooperation (BITS). The projeet also reeeived aetive assistanee from the Cuban State Committee for Economie Collaboration (CECE). The main objetive of the projeet was the applieation of the HBV model to the Cauto river basin in eastem Cuba, in order to - foreeast the inflow volwne to the reservoirs located in the basin and - eontribute to the rational use of water in the reservoirs.

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  • 335.
    Sandén, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    ESTIMATION AND SIMULATION OF METAL MASS-TRANSPORT IN AN OLD MINING AREA1991In: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, ISSN 0049-6979, E-ISSN 1573-2932, Vol. 57-8, p. 387-397Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In a watershed with an old mine tailings deposit, mass transport of Cu, Zn and Cd was studied. An extensive sampling program and the use of the PULSE model for the simulation of water flow made it feasible to simulate and compare the dynamics of metal transport at different sites in the study area. Close to the tailings deposit, the weathering rate in the deposit had a large impact on the dynamics of the mass transport, and interannual variation in mass transport was considerably lower than the variation in runoff. Further downstream, the mass transport was almost exclusively determined by the water flow and, thus far unidentified, mechanisms maintained fairly constant metal concentrations in the stream water. The usefulness of the PULSE model for simulating metal concentrations may still be questioned. However, it is noteworthy that a hydrochemical model based on a fairly simple description of the mixing of water from different sources and a very simple pH dependence of the concentration of metals, at least semi-quantitatively, can reproduce the dynamics of metal concentrations and mass transport of metals.

  • 336.
    Sandén, Per
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Rahm, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    WULFF, F
    NONPARAMETRIC TREND TEST OF BALTIC SEA DATA1991In: Environmetrics, ISSN 1180-4009, E-ISSN 1099-095X, Vol. 2, no 3, p. 263-278Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The recently reported tendencies toward decreasing total amounts of silicate in the Baltic Sea are investigated by use of non-parametric trend analysis. The period 1968-1986 showed significant falling trends in surface waters from the whole system. The deepest parts of the Baltic proper did in contrast reveal strong increasing trends. These trends are more pronounced during the latter part of the analysis period which is characterized by stagnant conditions in the Baltic proper. These conditions have been prevailing since the major inflow in 1976. The causes of the observed changes are unclear. The increased load of nutrients and accompanying increase in primary production is, however, one factor. Another is coupled to the stagnation conditions of the Baltic Proper.

  • 337.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    PRINCIPLES AND CONFIDENCE IN HYDROLOGICAL MODELING1991In: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 22, no 2, p. 123-136Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    General principles in development and application of hydrological models are discussed and related to the confidence in the results. The presentation is mainly based on the experience from the work with the HBV and PULSE models at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute between 1971 and 1990 but has also been influenced by other modelling work. It covers a discussion on the optimal complexity of models, use of observations, calibration, control and sensitivity analysis. Special attention is given to the uncertainties encountered when using hydrological models for the simulation of extreme floods and long-term scenario simulations. Finally a few ethical problems in modelling are mentioned.

  • 338.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Sandén, Per
    SMHI.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Analysis of climate-induced hydrochemical variations in till aquifers1990Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    An investigation of the relations between climatological factors and short term variabilityin groundwater storage and hydrochemistry in till aquifers is performed. The analysis isbased on a simple empirical hydrological model, the PULSE model, and groundwaterrecords from four sites in Sweden.The model proved to be capable of describing the dynamics of groundwater levels ordischarge, and at one of the sites it was possible to describe hydrochemical variations aswell. The application to the remaining three sites illustrated that groundwater chemistryshows a much more complex pattem of variations than does corresponding streamflowin this type of basin. The importance of areal variabilities within the recharge area isdiscussed and illustrated by a distribution of the model into two submodels when applyingit to one of the basins.

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  • 339.
    Häggström, Martin
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Application of the HBV model for flood forecasting in six Central American rivers1990Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report describes the application of a runoff model to six rivers in Central America. It isa part of the project "Streamflow Forecasting and Flood Varning in Central America" for which the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI} has been responsible. The project has been financed by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and co-ordinated by the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH} in Sweden. The project is one of the efforts to predict and prevent natural disasters in Central America within the duties for Centro de Coordinacion para la Prevención de Desastres Naturales en America Central (CEPREDENAC).

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  • 340.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Parametervärden för HBV-modellen i Sverige: Erfarenheter från modellkalibreringar under perioden 1975-19891990Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    HBV-modellen utvecklades vid SMHI i början av 1970-talet och har sedan dess funnit ett stort antal tillämpningar i landet. Inledningsvis var intresset mest knutet till hydrologisk prognosering åt vattenkraftindustrin och översvämningsvarningar till allmänheten, men under senare år har modellen fått spela en allt större roll för beräkning av dimensionerande flöden. Modellen finns i ett antal versioner, HBV-3, HBV-6 och HBV-TL samt ytterligare några för speciella tillämpningar. Dessutom finns ett antal versioner av modellen vid institutioner utanför SMHI såväl i Sverigesom utomlands.

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