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  • 26.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, U
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios2004In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 22, no 1, p. 13-31Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A basic analysis is presented for a series of regional climate change simulations that were conducted by the Swedish Rossby Centre and contribute to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) project. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, a 30-year control run and two 30-year scenario runs (based on the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) were made with the regional model. In this way, four realizations of climate change from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 were obtained. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario (although with few qualitative differences) and in most cases in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RE) than in the HadAM3H-driven (RH) regional simulations. In all the scenario runs, the warming in northern Europe is largest in winter or late autumn. In central and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer when it locally reaches 10 degreesC in the RE-A2 simulation and 6-7 degreesC in the RH-A2 and RE-B2 simulations. The four simulations agree on a general increase in precipitation in northern Europe especially in winter and on a general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the change differ markedly between RH and RE. This reflects very different changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year, which also lead to quite different simulated changes in windiness. All four simulations show a large increase in the lowest minimum temperatures in northern, central and eastern Europe, most likely due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases.

  • 27.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    GCM driven simulations of recent and future climate with the Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere - Baltic Sea regional climate model RCAO2003Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A series of six general circulation model (GCM) driven regional climate simulations made at the Rossby Centre, SMHI, during the year 2002 are documented. For both the two driving GCMs HadAM3H andECHAM4/OPYC3, a 30-year (1961-1990) control run and two 30-year (2071-2100) scenario runs have been made. The scenario runs are based on the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 forcing scenarios. These simulations were made at 49 km atmospheric resolution and they are part of the European PRUDENCE project.Many aspects of the simulated control climates compare favourably with observations, but some problems are also evident. For example, the simulated cloudiness and precipitation appear generally too abundant in northern Europe (although biases in precipitation measurements complicate the interpretation), whereas too clear and dry conditions prevail in southern Europe. There is a lot of similarity between the HadAM3Hdriven (RCAO-H) and ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RCAO-E) control simulations, although the problems associated with the hydrological cycle and cloudiness are somewhat larger in the latter.The simulated climate changes (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990) depend on both the forcing scenario (the changes are generally larger for A2 than B2) and the driving global model (the largest changes tend to occur in RCAO-E). In all the scenario simulations, the warming in northern Europe is largest in winter or autumn. In central and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer and reaches in the RCAO-E A2 simulation locally 10°C. The four simulations agree on a general increase in precipitation in northern Europe especiallyin winter and on a general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the change differ a lot between RCAO-H and RCAO-E. Thisreflects very different changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year, which also have a large impact on the simulated changes in windiness. A very large increase in the lowest minimumtemperatures occurs in a large part of Europe, most probably due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases.

  • 28.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Faxen, T
    A multiprocessor coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea: Application to salt inflow2003In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 108, no C8, article id 3273Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Within the Swedish Regional Climate Modeling Program, SWECLIM, a three-dimensional (3-D) coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea has been developed to simulate physical processes on timescales of hours to decades. The code has been developed based on the massively parallel version of the Ocean Circulation Climate Advanced Modeling (OCCAM) project of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner model. An elastic-viscous-plastic ice rheology is employed, resulting in a fully explicit numerical scheme that improves computational efficiency. An improved two-equation turbulence model has been embedded to simulate the seasonal cycle of surface mixed layer depths as well as deepwater mixing on decadal timescale. The model has open boundaries in the northern Kattegat and is forced with realistic atmospheric fields and river runoff. Optimized computational performance and advanced algorithms to calculate processor maps make the code fast and suitable for multi-year, high-resolution simulations. As test cases, the major salt water inflow event in January 1993 and the stagnation period 1980-1992, have been selected. The agreement between model results and observations is regarded as good. Especially, the time evolution of the halocline in the Baltic proper is realistically simulated also for the longer period without flux correction, data assimilation, or reinitialization. However, in particular, smaller salt water inflows into the Bornholm Basin are underestimated, independent of the horizontal model resolution used. It is suggested that the mixing parameterization still needs improvements. In addition, a series of process studies of the inflow period 1992/1993 have been performed to show the impact of river runoff, wind speed, and sea level in Kattegat. Natural interannual runoff variations control salt water inflows into the Bornholm Basin effectively. The effect of wind speed variation on the salt water flux from the Arkona Basin to the Bornholm Basin is minor.

  • 29.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    PRUDENCE-related regional climate modeling at the SMHI/Rossby Centre2002In: PRUDENCE kick-off meeting / [ed] Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Danish Climate Centre DMI, Ministry of Transport , 2002, p. 40-41Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 30.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO2002In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 183-192Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice general circulation model for northern Europe is introduced for climate study purposes. The Baltic Sea is interactively coupled. The coupled model is validated in a 5-year hind-cast experiment with a focus on surface quantities and atmosphere-ocean heat fluxes. The coupled sea surface temperature matches observations well. The system is free of drift, does not need flux corrections and is suitable for multi-year climate runs. With flux forcing from the atmospheric model the regional ocean model gives sea surface temperatures statistically equivalent to the uncoupled ocean model forced by observations. Other oceanic surface quantities do not reach this quality in combination with the current atmosphere model. A strong dependence of sea ice extent on details of the atmospheric radiation scheme is found. Our standard scheme leads to an overestimation of ice, most likely due to a negative bias of long-wave radiation. There is indication that a latent heat flux bias in fall contributes to the ice problem. Other atmosphere-ocean heat fluxes are generally realistic in the long term mean.

34567 26 - 30 of 35
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