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  • 26.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    GCM driven simulations of recent and future climate with the Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere - Baltic Sea regional climate model RCAO2003Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A series of six general circulation model (GCM) driven regional climate simulations made at the Rossby Centre, SMHI, during the year 2002 are documented. For both the two driving GCMs HadAM3H andECHAM4/OPYC3, a 30-year (1961-1990) control run and two 30-year (2071-2100) scenario runs have been made. The scenario runs are based on the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 forcing scenarios. These simulations were made at 49 km atmospheric resolution and they are part of the European PRUDENCE project.Many aspects of the simulated control climates compare favourably with observations, but some problems are also evident. For example, the simulated cloudiness and precipitation appear generally too abundant in northern Europe (although biases in precipitation measurements complicate the interpretation), whereas too clear and dry conditions prevail in southern Europe. There is a lot of similarity between the HadAM3Hdriven (RCAO-H) and ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RCAO-E) control simulations, although the problems associated with the hydrological cycle and cloudiness are somewhat larger in the latter.The simulated climate changes (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990) depend on both the forcing scenario (the changes are generally larger for A2 than B2) and the driving global model (the largest changes tend to occur in RCAO-E). In all the scenario simulations, the warming in northern Europe is largest in winter or autumn. In central and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer and reaches in the RCAO-E A2 simulation locally 10°C. The four simulations agree on a general increase in precipitation in northern Europe especiallyin winter and on a general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the change differ a lot between RCAO-H and RCAO-E. Thisreflects very different changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year, which also have a large impact on the simulated changes in windiness. A very large increase in the lowest minimumtemperatures occurs in a large part of Europe, most probably due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases.

  • 27.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Faxen, T
    A multiprocessor coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea: Application to salt inflow2003In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 108, no C8, article id 3273Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Within the Swedish Regional Climate Modeling Program, SWECLIM, a three-dimensional (3-D) coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea has been developed to simulate physical processes on timescales of hours to decades. The code has been developed based on the massively parallel version of the Ocean Circulation Climate Advanced Modeling (OCCAM) project of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner model. An elastic-viscous-plastic ice rheology is employed, resulting in a fully explicit numerical scheme that improves computational efficiency. An improved two-equation turbulence model has been embedded to simulate the seasonal cycle of surface mixed layer depths as well as deepwater mixing on decadal timescale. The model has open boundaries in the northern Kattegat and is forced with realistic atmospheric fields and river runoff. Optimized computational performance and advanced algorithms to calculate processor maps make the code fast and suitable for multi-year, high-resolution simulations. As test cases, the major salt water inflow event in January 1993 and the stagnation period 1980-1992, have been selected. The agreement between model results and observations is regarded as good. Especially, the time evolution of the halocline in the Baltic proper is realistically simulated also for the longer period without flux correction, data assimilation, or reinitialization. However, in particular, smaller salt water inflows into the Bornholm Basin are underestimated, independent of the horizontal model resolution used. It is suggested that the mixing parameterization still needs improvements. In addition, a series of process studies of the inflow period 1992/1993 have been performed to show the impact of river runoff, wind speed, and sea level in Kattegat. Natural interannual runoff variations control salt water inflows into the Bornholm Basin effectively. The effect of wind speed variation on the salt water flux from the Arkona Basin to the Bornholm Basin is minor.

  • 28.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    PRUDENCE-related regional climate modeling at the SMHI/Rossby Centre2002In: PRUDENCE kick-off meeting / [ed] Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Danish Climate Centre DMI, Ministry of Transport , 2002, p. 40-41Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 29.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO2002In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 183-192Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice general circulation model for northern Europe is introduced for climate study purposes. The Baltic Sea is interactively coupled. The coupled model is validated in a 5-year hind-cast experiment with a focus on surface quantities and atmosphere-ocean heat fluxes. The coupled sea surface temperature matches observations well. The system is free of drift, does not need flux corrections and is suitable for multi-year climate runs. With flux forcing from the atmospheric model the regional ocean model gives sea surface temperatures statistically equivalent to the uncoupled ocean model forced by observations. Other oceanic surface quantities do not reach this quality in combination with the current atmosphere model. A strong dependence of sea ice extent on details of the atmospheric radiation scheme is found. Our standard scheme leads to an overestimation of ice, most likely due to a negative bias of long-wave radiation. There is indication that a latent heat flux bias in fall contributes to the ice problem. Other atmosphere-ocean heat fluxes are generally realistic in the long term mean.

  • 30.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Simulated water and heat cycles of the Baltic Sea using a 3D coupled atmosphere-ice - ocean model2002In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 7, no 4, p. 327-334Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are calculated utilizing multi-year model simulations. This is one of the major objectives of the BALTEX program. For the period 1988-1993, results of a 3D ice-ocean model forced with observed atmospheric surface fields are compared with results of a fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model using re-analysis data at the lateral boundaries. The state-of-the-art coupled model system has been developed for climate study purposes in the Nordic countries. The model domain of the atmosphere model covers Scandinavia, Europe and parts of the North Atlantic whereas the ocean model is limited to the Baltic Sea. The annual and monthly mean heat budgets for the Baltic Sea are calculated from the dominating surface fluxes, i.e. sensible heat, latent heat, net longwave radiation and solar radiation to the open water or to the sea ice. The main part of the freshwater inflow to the Baltic is the river runoff. A smaller part of about 11 % is added from net precipitation. The heat and water cycles are compared with the results of a long-term simulation (1980-1993) using the stand-alone Baltic Sea model forced with observed atmospheric surface fields. In general, both approaches, using the uncoupled or coupled Baltic Sea model, give realistic estimates of the heat and water cycles and are in good agreement with results of other studies. However, in the coupled model the parameterizations of the latent heat flux and the incoming longwave radiation need to be improved.

34567 26 - 30 of 34
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