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  • 251.
    Lucas-Picher, Philippe
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Somot, Samuel
    Deque, Michel
    Decharme, Bertrand
    Alias, Antoinette
    Evaluation of the regional climate model ALADIN to simulate the climate over North America in the CORDEX framework2013In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 41, no 5-6, p. 1117-1137Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, an ensemble of four multi-year climate simulations is performed with the regional climate model ALADIN to evaluate its ability to simulate the climate over North America in the CORDEX framework. The simulations differ in their driving fields (ERA-40 or ERA-Interim) and the nudging technique (with or without large-scale nudging). The validation of the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation with observationally-based gridded data sets shows that ALADIN performs similarly to other regional climate models that are commonly used over North America. Large-scale nudging improves the temporal correlation of the atmospheric circulation between ALADIN and its driving field, and also reduces the warm and dry summer biases in central North America. The differences between the simulations driven with different reanalyses are small and are likely related to the regional climate model's induced internal variability. In general, the impact of different driving fields on ALADIN is smaller than that of large-scale nudging. The analysis of the multi-year simulations over the prairie and the east taiga indicates that the ALADIN 2-m temperature and precipitation interannual variability is similar or larger than that observed. Finally, a comparison of the simulations with observations for the summer 1993 shows that ALADIN underestimates the flood in central North America mainly due to its systematic dry bias in this region. Overall, the results indicate that ALADIN can produce a valuable contribution to CORDEX over North America.

  • 252.
    Lundqvist, Jan-Eric
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Udin, Ingemar
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ice accretion on ships with special emphasis on Baltic conditions1977Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Since the middle of the 1960-ties, ice accretion reports have been collected from ships travelling in the Baltic. The data from these reports have been processed and the relation between ice accretion and meteorological and oceanographic parameters have been studied. The investigation comprises merchant vessels of a size typical for the Baltic. This report presents the results from the icing campaign. It contains a general description, including factors causing icing, the freezing process etc. Results from other investigations have been studied and comparisons made. Forecasting of ice accretion is discussed and the method now used at SMHI is described. Finally some comments are given on how to avoid or decrease the ice accretion.

  • 253. Mair, Louise
    et al.
    Harrison, Philip J.
    Raty, Minna
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Snäll, Tord
    Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change2017In: Ecological Applications, ISSN 1051-0761, E-ISSN 1939-5582, Vol. 27, no 5, p. 1485-1497Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 254. Mair, Louise
    et al.
    Jonsson, Mari
    Raty, Minna
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lamas, Tomas
    Snall, Tord
    Land use changes could modify future negative effects of climate change on old-growth forest indicator species2018In: Diversity & distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity, ISSN 1366-9516, E-ISSN 1472-4642, Vol. 24, no 10, p. 1416-1425Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 255. Maraun, Douglas
    et al.
    Widmann, Martin
    Gutierrez, Jose M.
    Kotlarski, Sven
    Chandler, Richard E.
    Hertig, Elke
    Wibig, Joanna
    Huth, Radan
    Wilcke, Renate
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    VALUE: A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies2015In: Earth's Future, ISSN 1384-5160, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 3, no 1, p. 1-14Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE's main approach to validation is user-focused: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.

  • 256. Marengo, J.
    et al.
    Chou, S.
    Mourao, C.
    Solman, S.
    Sanchez, E.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    da Rocha, R. P.
    Li, L.
    Pessacg, N.
    Remedio, A. R. C.
    Carril, A. F.
    Cavalcanti, I. F.
    Jacob, D.
    Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models2013In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 41, no 11-12, p. 2937-2955Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The meteorological characteristics of the drought of 2005 in Amazonia, one of the most severe in the last 100 years were assessed using a suite of seven regional models obtained from the CLARIS LPB project. The models were forced with the ERA-Interim reanalyses as boundary conditions. We used a combination of rainfall and temperature observations and the low-level circulation and evaporation fields from the reanalyses to determine the climatic and meteorological characteristics of this particular drought. The models reproduce in some degree the observed annual cycle of precipitation and the geographical distribution of negative rainfall anomalies during the summer months of 2005. With respect to the evolution of rainfall during 2004-2006, some of the models were able to simulate the negative rainfall departures during early summer of 2005 (December 2004 to February 2005). The interannual variability of rainfall anomalies for both austral summer and fall over northern and southern Amazonia show a large spread among models, with some of them capable of reproducing the 2005 observed negative rainfall departures (four out of seven models in southern Amazonia during DJF). In comparison, all models simulated the observed southern Amazonia negative rainfall and positive air temperature anomalies during the El Nino-related drought in 1998. The spatial structure of the simulated rainfall and temperature anomalies in DJF and MAM 2005 shows biases that are different among models. While some models simulated the observed negative rainfall anomalies over parts of western and southern Amazonia during DJF, others simulated positive rainfall departures over central Amazonia. The simulated circulation patterns indicate a weaker northeasterly flow from the tropical North Atlantic into Amazonia, and reduced flows from southern Amazonia into the La Plata basin in DJF, which is consistent with observations. In general, we can say that in some degree the regional models are able to capture the response to the forcing from the tropical Atlantic during the drought of 2005 in Amazonia. Moreover, extreme climatic conditions in response to anomalous low-level circulation features are also well captured, since the boundary conditions come from reanalysis and the models are largely constrained by the information provided at the boundaries. The analysis of the 2005 drought suggests that when the forcing leading to extreme anomalous conditions is associated with both local and non-local mechanisms (soil moisture feedbacks and remote SST anomalies, respectively) the models are not fully capable of representing these feedbacks and hence, the associated anomalies. The reason may be a deficient reproduction of the land-atmosphere interactions.

  • 257. Markovic, Marko
    et al.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Vaillancourt, Paul A.
    Paquin, Dominique
    Winger, Katja
    Paquin-Ricard, Danahe
    An evaluation of the surface radiation budget over North America for a suite of regional climate models against surface station observations2008In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 31, no 7-8, p. 779-794Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 258. Martin, G. M.
    et al.
    Peyrille, P.
    Roehrig, R.
    Rio, C.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bellon, G.
    Codron, F.
    Lafore, J. -P
    Poan, D. E.
    Idelkadi, A.
    Understanding the West African Monsoon from the analysis of diabatic heating distributions as simulated by climate models2017In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 239-270Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 259. Matulla, C.
    et al.
    Schoener, W.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    von Storch, H.
    Wang, X. L.
    European storminess: late nineteenth century to present2008In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 31, no 2-3, p. 125-130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Annual and seasonal statistics of local air pressure characteristics have already been used as proxies for storminess across Northern Europe. We present an update of such proxies for Northern Europe and an unprecedented analysis for Central Europe which together considerably extends the current knowledge of European storminess. Calculations are completed for three sets of stations, located in North-Western, Northern and Central Europe. Results derived from spatial differences (geostrophic winds) and single station pressure changes per 24 h support each other. Geostrophic winds' high percentiles (95th, 99th) were relatively high during the late nineteenth and the early twentieth century; after that they leveled off somewhat, to get larger again in the late twentieth century. The decrease happens suddenly in Central Europe and over several decades in Northern Europe. The subsequent rise is most pronounced in North-Western Europe, while slow and steady in Central Europe. Europe's storm climate has undergone significant changes throughout the past 130 years and comprises significant variations on a quasi-decadal timescale. Most recent years feature average or calm conditions, supporting claims raised in earlier studies with new evidence. Aside from some dissimilarity, a general agreement between the investigated regions appears to be the most prominent feature. The capability of the NAO index to explain storminess across Europe varies in space and with the considered period.

  • 260. Maure, G.
    et al.
    Pinto, I.
    Ndebele-Murisa, M.
    Muthige, M.
    Lennard, C.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Dosio, A.
    Meque, A.
    The southern African climate under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 6, article id 065002Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 261. Mba, Wilfried Pokam
    et al.
    Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.
    Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran
    Bell, Jean-Pierre
    James, Rachel
    Vondou, Derbetini A.
    Haensler, Andreas
    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.
    Guenang, Guy Merlin
    Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie Djiotang
    Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.
    Takong, Ridick R.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lennard, Christopher J.
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Consequences of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 5, article id 055011Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 262. McCreesh, Nicky
    et al.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Booth, Mark
    Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa2015In: Parasites & Vectors, ISSN 1756-3305, E-ISSN 1756-3305, Vol. 8, article id 4Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Survival and fitness attributes of free-living and sporocyst schistosome life-stages and their intermediate host snails are sensitive to water temperature. Climate change may alter the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis by affecting the suitability of freshwater bodies for hosting parasite and snail populations. Methods: We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma mansoni and intermediate host snail lifecycles. The model was run using low, moderate and high warming climate projections over eastern Africa. For each climate projection, eight model scenarios were used to determine the sensitivity of predictions to different relationships between air and water temperature, and different snail mortality rates. Maps were produced showing predicted changes in risk as a result of increasing temperatures over the next 20 and 50 years. Results: Baseline model output compared to prevalence data indicates suitable temperatures are necessary but not sufficient for both S. mansoni transmission and high infection prevalences. All else being equal, infection risk may increase by up to 20% over most of eastern Africa over the next 20 and 50 years. Increases may be higher in Rwanda, Burundi, south-west Kenya and eastern Zambia, and S. mansoni may become newly endemic in some areas. Results for 20-year projections are robust to changes in simulated intermediate host snail habitat conditions. There is greater uncertainty about the effects of different habitats on changes in risk in 50 years' time. Conclusions: Temperatures are likely to become suitable for increased S. mansoni transmission over much of eastern Africa. This may reduce the impact of control and elimination programmes. S. mansoni may also spread to new areas outside existing control programmes. We call for increased surveillance in areas defined as potentially suitable for emergent transmission.

  • 263. McGinnity, Philip
    et al.
    Jennings, Eleanor
    DeEyto, Elvira
    Allott, Norman
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rogan, Gerard
    Whelan, Ken
    Cross, Tom
    Impact of naturally spawning captive-bred Atlantic salmon on wild populations: depressed recruitment and increased risk of climate-mediated extinction2009In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 276, no 1673, p. 3601-3610Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The assessment report of the 4th International Panel on Climate Change confirms that global warming is strongly affecting biological systems and that 20-30% of species risk extinction from projected future increases in temperature. It is essential that any measures taken to conserve individual species and their constituent populations against climate-mediated declines are appropriate. The release of captive bred animals to augment wild populations is a widespread management strategy for many species but has proven controversial. Using a regression model based on a 37-year study of wild and sea ranched Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) spawning together in the wild, we show that the escape of captive bred animals into the wild can substantially depress recruitment and more specifically disrupt the capacity of natural populations to adapt to higher winter water temperatures associated with climate variability. We speculate the mechanisms underlying this seasonal response and suggest that an explanation based on bio-energetic processes with physiological responses synchronized by photoperiod is plausible. Furthermore, we predict, by running the model forward using projected future climate scenarios, that these cultured fish substantially increase the risk of extinction for the studied population within 20 generations. In contrast, we show that positive outcomes to climate change are possible if captive bred animals are prevented from breeding in the wild. Rather than imposing an additional genetic load on wild populations by releasing maladapted captive bred animals, we propose that conservation efforts should focus on optimizing conditions for adaptation to occur by reducing exploitation and protecting critical habitats. Our findings are likely to hold true for most poikilothermic species where captive breeding programmes are used in population management.

  • 264.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical donwscaling approach using two global models and two emission scenarios2006In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 1, no 27, p. 39-68Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 265.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Regional ocean modeling – climate variability and impact studies of the Baltic Sea2005In: EXTENDED ABSTRACTS of a WMO/WCRP-sponsored REGIONAL-SCALE CLIMATE MODELLING WORKSHOP: HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE MODELLING: ASSESSMENT, ADDED VALUE AND APPLICATIONS / [ed] Lars Bärring & René Laprise, Department of Physical Geography & Ecosystems Analysis Lund University, Sweden , 2005, p. 40-41Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 266.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Simulated water and heat cycles of the Baltic Sea using a 3D coupled ice-ocean model2001In: third study conference on BALTEX, / [ed] J. Meywerk, 2001, p. 161-162Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 267.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    The doubly stratified regime: turbulence closures for an OGCM of the Baltic Sea.2005In: Marine Turbulence: Theories, Observations, and Models. Results of the CARTUM Project, / [ed] H. Z. Baumert, J. Simpson, and J. Sündermann, Cambridge University Press, 2005, p. 376-382Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 268.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Broman, Barry
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Modelling Sea Level Variability in Different Climates of the Baltic Sea2004In: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, p. 170-171Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 269.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Broman, Barry
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Simulated sea level in past and future climates of the Baltic Sea2004In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 27, no 1, p. 59-75Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sea levels of the Baltic Sea in past and future climates were investigated based upon 6-hourly regional model results. For the future climate, the Rossby Centre Atmosphere Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30 yr time slice experiments. For each of the 2 driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961 to 1990) and 2 scenario runs (2071 to 2100) based upon the scenarios A2 and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were conducted. To estimate uncertainties in the global and regional models, 3 sea level scenarios for the Baltic Sea were compiled assuming global average sea level rises between 0.09 and 0.88 m and considering land uplift and the impact of regional changes in wind direction and velocity from the time slice experiments. In the scenarios forced with ECHAM4/OPYC3 the mean sea level between October and April increases significantly compared to the control climate, and storm surges increase even more than monthly mean sea level. In the scenarios forced with HadAM3H the changes are mostly not significant. Depending on the sea level rise, the risk of flooding at the coasts may either decrease in the entire Baltic, or it may increase, especially at the eastern ends of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga and in Gdansk Bay. Here, maximum changes of about 1 m are found in the winter mean 99% quantiles of the sea level. For the past climate the regional ocean model was forced with reconstructed surface wind fields for 1903 to 1998. The results are close to observations, but storm surges in the western Baltic are underestimated.

  • 270.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Christensen, Ole Bössing
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lorenz, Philip
    Rockel, Burkhardt
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Selected examples of the added value of regional climate models2009In: / [ed] Rockel, B., Bärring, L and Reckermann, M., 2009, p. 54-55Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 271.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Broman, Barry
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Piechura, J
    The major Baltic inflow in January 2003 and preconditioning by smaller inflows in summer/autumn 2002: a model study2004In: Oceanologia, ISSN 0078-3234, Vol. 46, no 4, p. 557-579Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using the results of the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO) the Baltic inflows in summer/autumn 2002 and January 2003 have been studied. The model results were extracted from a long simulation with observed atmospheric forcing Starting in May 1980. In RCO a bottom boundary layer model was embedded. Both the Smaller inflows and the major inflow in January 2003 are simulated in good agreement with observations. We found that a total of 222 km(3) water entered the Baltic in January: the salinity of 94 km(3) was greater than 17 PSU. In August/September 2002 the outflow through the Sound and inflow across the Darss Sill were simulated. The net inflow volume amounted to about 50 km(3).

  • 272.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Halkka, A
    Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal2004In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, no 4-5, p. 249-256Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SIRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.

  • 273.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Modelling the changing climate of the Baltic Sea.2006Report (Other academic)
  • 274.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kauker, Frank
    What Causes Stagnation of the Baltic Sea Deepwater?2004In: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, p. 172-173Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 275.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century2006In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 33, no 15, article id L15705Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the uncertainty of projected precipitation and wind changes in regional climate change scenario simulations over Europe for the late 21st century is large, we applied a multi-model ensemble approach using 16 scenario simulations based upon seven regional models, five global models, and two emission scenarios to gain confidence in projected salinity changes in the Baltic Sea. In the dynamical downscaling approach a regional ocean circulation model and a large-scale hydrological model for the entire Baltic Sea catchment area were used. Despite the uncertainties, mainly caused by global model biases, salinity changes in all projections are either negative or not statistically significant in terms of natural variability.

  • 276. Menendez, C. G.
    et al.
    de Castro, M.
    Boulanger, J. -P
    D'Onofrio, A.
    Sanchez, E.
    Soerensson, A. A.
    Blazquez, J.
    Elizalde, A.
    Jacob, D.
    Le Treut, H.
    Li, Z. X.
    Nunez, M. N.
    Pessacg, N.
    Pfeiffer, S.
    Rojas, M.
    Rolla, A.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Solman, S. A.
    Teichmann, C.
    Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southern South America2010In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 98, no 3-4, p. 379-403Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the performance of one stretched-grid atmospheric global model, five different regional climate models and a statistical downscaling technique in simulating 3 months (January 1971, November 1986, July 1996) characterized by anomalous climate conditions in the southern La Plata Basin. Models were driven by reanalysis (ERA-40). The analysis has emphasized on the simulation of the precipitation over land and has provided a quantification of the biases of and scatter between the different regional simulations. Most but not all dynamical models underpredict precipitation amounts in south eastern South America during the three periods. Results suggest that models have regime dependence, performing better for some conditions than others. The models' ensemble and the statistical technique succeed in reproducing the overall observed frequency of daily precipitation for all periods. But most models tend to underestimate the frequency of dry days and overestimate the amount of light rainfall days. The number of events with strong or heavy precipitation tends to be under simulated by the models.

  • 277. Miao, J F
    et al.
    Chen, D
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Modelling subgrid scale dry deposition velocity of O-3 over the Swedish west coast with MM5-PX model2006In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 40, no 3, p. 415-429Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) coupled with an advanced land surface model (PX LSM) is used in this study to model high-resolution (2 km) dry deposition velocity of ozone over the Swedish west coast, together with a newly revised dry deposition parameterization for air-quality models with emphasis on non-stomatal resistance. The important air-surface exchange processes for air quality (surface fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum) are also simulated by this model. The modelled subgrid scale variability of the dry deposition velocity and its dependence on land use, terrain height and synoptic conditions are investigated. It is found that a systematic difference in the deposition velocity modelled by different resolutions exists, and the difference varies diurnally and daily. The subgrid scale variation is significant, which has a clear impact on the area-averaged deposition velocity. The deposition velocity depends strongly on land use and weather conditions, but not on topography for the area studied. Meteorological conditions at subgrid scales play an important role in determining the deposition velocity. It is also concluded that the dry deposition velocity simulated in this study is reasonable, and that a 6-km resolution would be practically good enough to resolve the inhomogeneity of the surface properties for dry deposition studies in this area. The variation range of dry deposition velocity over different land use categories and the corresponding resistances are outlined. Moreover, the difference in the estimated dry deposition velocitiy between the methods using fractional land use and using dominant land use is compared. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 278. Miao, J. -F
    et al.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Chen, D.
    Ritchie, H.
    Impacts of boundary layer turbulence and land surface process parameterizations on simulated sea breeze characteristics2009In: Annales Geophysicae, ISSN 0992-7689, E-ISSN 1432-0576, Vol. 27, no 6, p. 2303-2320Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the sensitivity of sea breeze (SB) simulations to combinations of boundary-layer turbulence and land-surface process parameterizations implemented in the MM5 mesoscale meteorological mode for an observed SB case over the Swedish west coast. Various combinations from four different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes [Blackadar, Gayno-Seaman (GS), Eta, MRF], and two land surface model (LSM) schemes (SLAB, Noah) with different complexity are designed to simulate a typical SB case over the Swedish west coast. The simulations are conducted using two-way interactively nested grids. Simulated 10-m winds are compared against observed near-surface wind data from the GOTE2001 campaign to examine the diurnal cycle of wind direction and speed for SB timing. The SB (vertical) circulation is also compared in the different experiments. The results show that the different combinations of PBL and LSM parameterization schemes result in different SB timing and vertical circulation characteristics. All experiments predict a delayed SB. The vertical component of the SB circulation varies in the experiments, among which the GS PBL scheme produces the strongest SB circulation. Evident differences between the SLAB and Noah LSMs are also found, especially in maximum of updraft and downdraft velocities of the SB vertical circulation. The results have significant implications for convective initiation, air quality studies and other environmental problems in coastal areas.

  • 279. Milano, Marianne
    et al.
    Reynard, Emmanuel
    Koplin, Nina
    SMHI.
    Weingartner, Rolf
    Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress2015In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 536, p. 12-24Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low-to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 280. Moberg, A
    et al.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Homogenization of Swedish temperature data .2. Homogenized gridded air temperature compared with a subset of global gridded air temperature since 18611997In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 17, no 1, p. 35-54Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Homogeneity tests of long seasonal temperature series from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway indicate that homogeneous series are rare and that an abrupt change of the relative mean level is a much more common type of nonhomogeneity than a gradual change. Furthermore, negative shifts were 20% more common than positive shifts. Homogenized temperature anomaly series that were constructed for six 5 degrees latitude x 5 degrees longitude grid boxes indicate that the temporal pattern of temperture changes has been similar in different parts of Sweden since 1861. The annual mean temperature over Sweden was found to have increased by 0.68 degrees C from the period 1861-1890 to 1965-1994. The corresponding changes for the seasons were: +0.18 degrees C (winter), +1.40 (spring), +0.42 (summer) and +0.60 (autumn). A direct comparson shows that non-homogeneities in the temperature series from individual grid boxes in a global data set can be as large as the total changes observed. We estimate that a 95 per cent confidence interval for the error, due to non-homogeneous long station records, in estimates of hemispheric temperature changes over land regions since the period 1861-1890 is +/-0.1 degrees C for the Northern Hemisphere and the globe and +/-0.25 degrees C for the Southern Hemisphere. For a region consisting of about five grid boxes, this error is +/-0.5 degrees C. The large non-homogeneities in individual grid-box series in the global data set is partly a consequence of the fact that homogeneous climate data are not always easily available for the open research community. We urge that efforts are made to improve this situation.

  • 281. Moberg, A
    et al.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Bergstrom, H
    Jones, P D
    Were southern Swedish summer temperatures before 1860 as warm as measured?2003In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 23, no 12, p. 1495-1521Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Temperature series from Stockholm and Uppsala in southern Sweden indicate that summers from the mid-18th century until around 1860 were, on average, warmer than the 1961-90 mean. The station histories suggest that the early observations could have been positively biased, for example because of insufficient radiation protection. We investigate if independent support for warm summers in the early period can be obtained from other climate variables. Using stepwise multiple regression analysis we investigate nine potential predictor variables: six air circulation indices, precipitation, air pressure and cloud amount. Three of these variables - cloud amount (the most important one), meridional geostrophic wind, and air pressure - together explain 65% of the June-August temperature variance in the calibration period 1873-2000. Application of the regression relationship back to 1780 shows that the model is equally successful in predicting year-to-year temperature variability before 1873 as it is in the calibration period, whereas the low-frequency component is poorly reconstructed in the early period. This reduced skill is primarily due to poorer data quality of the predictor variables in the early period, in particular the cloud amount series. The observed decadal mean temperatures during 1780-1860 are found to be above the upper limit of a 95% confidence interval that accounts for uncertainties both in the regression relationship and in the cloud amount series. We conclude that the observed temperatures before around 1860 are, therefore, most likely positively biased. The size of this bias cannot be accurately determined from the evidence used here, but seems to be about 0.7-0.8degreesC for both stations. A comparison with long instrumental temperature series from central Europe suggests a slightly smaller bias (0.5-0.6degreesC). For more accurate assessment of the Stockholm and Uppsala temperatures, we recommend that extensive homogeneity testing of other long northern European temperature series are undertaken. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

  • 282.
    Moberg, Anders
    et al.
    Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University.
    Gouirand, Isabelle
    Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University .
    Schoning, Kristian
    Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University .
    Wohlfarth, Barbara
    Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    de Jong, Rixt
    Department of Quaternary Geology, Lund University.
    Linderholm, Hans
    Department of Earth Sciences, Göteborg University .
    Zorita, Eduardo
    GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany.
    Climate in Sweden during the past millennium – Evidence from proxy data, instrumental data and model simulations2006Report (Other academic)
  • 283. Moore, Karen
    et al.
    Pierson, Donald
    Pettersson, Kurt
    Schneiderman, Elliot
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Effects of warmer world scenarios on hydrologic inputs to Lake Malaren, Sweden and implications for nutrient loads2008In: Hydrobiologia, ISSN 0018-8158, E-ISSN 1573-5117, Vol. 599, p. 191-199Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A simple, rapid, and flexible modelling approach was applied to explore the impacts of climate change on hydrologic inputs and consequent implications for nutrient loading to Lake Malaren, Sweden using a loading function model (GWLF). The first step in the process was to adapt the model for use in a large and complex Swedish catchment. We focused on the Galten basin with four rivers draining into the western region of Malaren. The catchment model was calibrated and tested using long-term historical data for river discharge and dissolved nutrients (N, P). Then multiple regional climate model simulation results were downscaled to the local catchment level, and used to simulate possible hydrological and nutrient loading responses to warmer world scenarios. Climate change projections for the rivers of Galten basin show profound changes in the timing of discharge and nutrient delivery due to increased winter precipitation and earlier snow melt. Impacts on total annual discharge and load are minimal, but the alteration in river flow regime and the timing of nutrient delivery for future climate scenarios is strikingly different from historical conditions.

  • 284. Moseley, Christopher
    et al.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Haerter, Jan O.
    Probing the precipitation life cycle by iterative rain cell tracking2013In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 118, no 24, p. 13361-13370Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Monitoring the life cycle of convective rain cells requires a Lagrangian viewpoint where the observer moves with the dominant background flow. To adopt such a moving reference frame, we design, validate, and apply a simple rain cell tracking methodwhich we term iterative rain cell tracking (IRT)for spatio-temporal precipitation data. IRT iteratively identifies the formation and dissipation of rain cells and determines the large-scale flow. The iteration is repeated until reaching convergence. As validated using reanalysis wind speeds, repeated iterations lead to substantially increased agreement of the background flow field and an increased number of complete tracks. Our method is thereby able to monitor the growth and intensity profiles of rain cells and is applied to a high-resolution (5 min and 1x1 km(2)) data set of radar-derived rainfall intensities over Germany. We then combine this data set with surface temperature observations and synoptic observations to group tracks according to convective and stratiform conditions. Convective tracks show clear life cycles in intensity, with peaks shifted off-center toward the beginning of the track, whereas stratiform tracks have comparatively featureless intensity profiles. Our results show that the convective life cycle can lead to convection-dominating precipitation extremes at short time scales, while track-mean intensities may vary much less between the two types. The observed features become more pronounced as surface temperature increases, and in the case of convection even exceeded the rates expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.

  • 285. Napoly, Adrien
    et al.
    Boone, Aaron
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    SMHI.
    Martin, Eric
    Seferian, Roland
    Carrer, Dominique
    Decharme, Bertrand
    Jarlan, Lionel
    The interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model multi-energy balance (MEB) option in SURFEXv8-Part 2: Introduction of a litter formulation and model evaluation for local-scale forest sites2017In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 1621-1644Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 286. Naumann, G.
    et al.
    Alfieri, L.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Mentaschi, L.
    Betts, R. A.
    Carrao, H.
    Spinoni, J.
    Vogt, J.
    Feyen, L.
    Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming2018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 7, p. 3285-3296Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 287. Navarro-Ortega, Alicia
    et al.
    Acuna, Vicenc
    Bellin, Alberto
    Burek, Peter
    Cassiani, Giorgio
    Choukr-Allah, Redouane
    Doledec, Sylvain
    Elosegi, Arturo
    Ferrari, Federico
    Ginebreda, Antoni
    Grathwohl, Peter
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rault, Philippe Ker
    Kok, Kasper
    Koundouri, Phoebe
    Ludwig, Ralf Peter
    Merz, Ralf
    Milacic, Radmila
    Munoz, Isabel
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Paniconi, Claudio
    Paunovic, Momir
    Petrovic, Mira
    Sabater, Laia
    Sabater, Sergi
    Skoulikidis, Nikolaos Th.
    Slob, Adriaan
    Teutsch, Georg
    Voulvoulis, Nikolaos
    Barcelo, Damia
    Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity. The GLOBAQUA project2015In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 503, p. 3-9Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water scarcity is a serious environmental problem in many European regions, and will likely increase in the near future as a consequence of increased abstraction and climate change. Water scarcity exacerbates the effects of multiple stressors, and thus results in decreased water quality. It impacts river ecosystems, threatens the services they provide, and it will force managers and policy-makers to change their current practices. The EU-FP7 project GLOBAQUA aims at identifying the prevalence, interaction and linkages between stressors, and to assess their effects on the chemical and ecological status of freshwater ecosystems in order to improve water management practice and policies. GLOBAQUA assembles a multidisciplinary team of 21 European plus 2 non-European scientific institutions, as well as water authorities and river basin managers. The project includes experts in hydrology, chemistry, biology, geomorphology, modelling, socio-economics, governance science, knowledge brokerage, and policy advocacy. GLOBAQUA studies six river basins (Ebro, Adige, Sava, Evrotas, Anglian and Souss Massa) affected by water scarcity, and aims to answer the following questions: how does water scarcity interact with other existing stressors in the study river basins? How will these interactions change according to the different scenarios of future global change? Which will be the foreseeable consequences for river ecosystems? How will these in turn affect the services the ecosystems provide? How should management and policies be adapted to minimise the ecological, economic and societal consequences? These questions will be approached by combining data-mining, field- and laboratory-based research, and modelling. Here, we outline the general structure of the project and the activities to be conducted within the fourteen work-packages of GLOBAQUA. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  • 288.
    Nerheim, Signild
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Schöld, Sofie
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Gunn
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjöström, Åsa
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Framtida havsnivåer i Sverige2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Sveriges kustområden drabbas ibland av tillfälliga översvämningar i samband med stormar eller då kraftiga lågtryck passerar. Översvämningar kan orsaka allvarliga samhällsstörningar och vatteninträngning i byggnader kan ge upphov till stora kostnader. Den pågående globala uppvärmningen, med stigande havsnivåer som följd, aktualiserar frågan om hur vattenståndet kring svenska kusten kan förändras, idag och i framtiden. Havet stiger och det kommer att pågå under hundratals eller kanske till och med tusentals år framöver.

    SMHI startade 2015 ett projekt för att beskriva havsnivåer längs svenska kusten i dagens och framtidens klimat. Projektet har levererat:

    • Beräknade medelvattenstånd för hela Sveriges kust för år 2050 och år 2100 utifrån tre olika framtida klimatscenarier.
    • En visningstjänst för framtida medelvattenstånd.
    • En beskrivning av hur höga havsvattenstånd kan beräknas för en specifik plats.
    • Höga vattenstånd för SMHI:s mätstationer samt en visualisering av dessa.
    • En översikt över statistisk metodik.
    • En vägledning för utvärdering av lokala effekter.
    • En beskrivning av kända högvattenhändelser i olika kustområden och parametrar och processer relaterade till dessa.

    Denna rapport presenterar en översikt över resultaten som tagits fram i projektet och avslutas med en beskrivning av hur framtidens höga havsnivåer kan bedömas i planeringssyfte. SMHI har i rapporten inte tagit ställning till vilket klimatscenario eller vilken tidshorisont som är mest lämpligt att använda för samhällsplanering. Detta måste bestämmas i ett situationsspecifikt sammanhang där risk och kostnader beaktas. SMHI vill betona att även om år 2100 ofta anges som slutår för klimatscenarier, så kommer havets nivå att fortsätta att stiga längre än så.

    Rapporten summerar resultat från övriga rapporter som framtagits inom projektet. För ytterligare detaljer hänvisas till dessa (se Förord).

  • 289. Neset, Tina-Simone
    et al.
    Opach, Tomasz
    Lion, Peter
    Lilja, Anna
    SMHI.
    Johansson, Jimmy
    Map-Based Web Tools Supporting Climate Change Adaptation2016In: Professional Geographer, ISSN 0033-0124, E-ISSN 1467-9272, Vol. 68, no 1, p. 103-114Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article discusses the state of the art in geovisualization supporting climate change adaptation. We reviewed twenty selected map-based Web tools, classified by their content and functionality, and assessed them by visual representations, interactive functions, information type, target audience, and how vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are addressed. Our study concludes that the tools (1) can be classified as data viewers with basic functionality and data explorers offering more sophisticated interactive functions; (2) mostly feature moderate or high richness of data content; and (3) predominantly target expert users.

  • 290. Nijssen, B
    et al.
    Bowling, L C
    Lettenmaier, D P
    Clark, D B
    El Maayar, M
    Essery, R
    Goers, S
    Gusev, Y M
    Habets, F
    van den Hurk, B
    Jin, J M
    Kahan, D
    Lohmann, D
    Ma, X Y
    Mahanama, S
    Mocko, D
    Nasonova, O
    Niu, G Y
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schmakin, A B
    Takata, K
    Verseghy, D
    Viterbo, P
    Xia, Y L
    Xue, Y K
    Yang, Z L
    Simulation of high latitude hydrological processes in the Torne-Kalix basin: PILPS phase 2(e) - 2: Comparison of model results with observations2003In: Global and Planetary Change, ISSN 0921-8181, E-ISSN 1872-6364, Vol. 38, no 1-2, p. 31-53Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 291. Nik, Vahid M.
    et al.
    Kalagasidis, Angela Sasic
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Assessment of hygrothermal performance and mould growth risk in ventilated attics in respect to possible climate changes in Sweden2012In: Building and Environment, ISSN 0360-1323, E-ISSN 1873-684X, Vol. 55, p. 96-109Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Most of the last 20 years in Sweden have been mild and wet compared to the 1961-1990 climate reference period. After a few relatively cold years in the mid-1980s, practically all years have been warmer than the preceding 30 years average. During the indicated period, an increase of moisture-related problems (mould growth) was observed in ventilated attics, a moisture sensitive building part. This work investigates hygrothermal performance of ventilated attics in respect to possible climate change. Hygrothermal simulations of attics were performed numerically in Matlab. Four attic constructions are investigated - a conventional attic and three alternative constructions suggested by practitioners. Simulations were done for the period of 1961-2100 using the weather data of RCA3 climate model. Effects of three different emissions scenarios are considered. Hygrothermal conditions in the attic are assessed using a mould growth model. Based on the results the highest risk of mould growth was found on the north roof of the attic in Gothenburg, Sweden. Results point to increment of the moisture problems in attics in future. Different emissions scenarios do not influence the risk of mould growth inside the attic due to compensating changes in different variables. Assessing the future performance of the four attics shows that the safe solution is to ventilate the attic mechanically, though this solution inevitably requires extra use of electrical energy for running the fan. Insulating roofs of the attic can decrease the condensation on roofs, but it cannot decrease the risk of mould growth considerably, on the wooden roof underlay. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 292. Nik, Vahid M.
    et al.
    Kalagasidis, Angela Sasic
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Statistical methods for assessing and analysing the building performance in respect to the future climate2012In: Building and Environment, ISSN 0360-1323, E-ISSN 1873-684X, Vol. 53, p. 107-118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Global warming and its effects on climate are of great concern. Climate change can affect buildings in different ways. Increased structural loads from wind and water, changes in energy need and decreased moisture durability of materials are some examples of the consequences. Future climate conditions are simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Downscaling by regional climate models (RCMs) provides weather data with suitable temporal and spatial resolutions for direct use in building simulations. There are two major challenges when the future climate data are used in building simulations. The first is to handle and analyse the huge amount of data. The second challenge is to assess the uncertainties in building simulations as a consequence of uncertainties in the future climate data. In this paper two statistical methods, which have been adopted from climatology, are introduced. Applications of the methods are illustrated by looking into two uncertainty factors of the future climate; operating RCMs at different spatial resolutions and with boundary data from different GCMs. The Ferro hypothesis is introduced as a nonparametric method for comparing data at different spatial resolutions. The method is quick and subtle enough to make the comparison. The parametric method of decomposition of variabilities is described and its application in data assessment is shown by considering RCM data forced by different GCMs. The method enables to study data and its variations in different time scales. It provides a useful summary about data and its variations which makes the comparison between several data sets easier. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 293.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Asrar, Ghassem
    Buechner, Matthias
    Cerezo-Mota, Ruth
    Christensen, Ole Bossing
    Deque, Michel
    Fernandez, Jesus
    Haensler, Andreas
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba
    Sushama, Laxmi
    Precipitation Climatology in an Ensemble of CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Simulations2012In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 25, no 18, p. 6057-6078Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An ensemble of regional climate simulations is analyzed to evaluate the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble average to simulate precipitation over Africa. All RCMs use a similar domain and spatial resolution of similar to 50 km and are driven by the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) (1989-2008). They constitute the first set of simulations in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in Africa (CORDEX-Africa) project. Simulated precipitation is evaluated at a range of time scales, including seasonal means, and annual and diurnal cycles, against a number of detailed observational datasets. All RCMs simulate the seasonal mean and annual cycle quite accurately, although individual models can exhibit significant biases in some subregions and seasons. The multimodel average generally outperforms any individual simulation, showing biases of similar magnitude to differences across a number of observational datasets. Moreover, many of the RCMs significantly improve the precipitation climate compared to that from their boundary condition dataset, that is, ERA-Interim. A common problem in the majority of the RCMs is that precipitation is triggered too early during the diurnal cycle, although a small subset of models does have a reasonable representation of the phase of the diurnal cycle. The systematic bias in the diurnal cycle is not improved when the ensemble mean is considered. Based on this performance analysis, it is assessed that the present set of RCMs can be used to provide useful information on climate projections over Africa.

  • 294.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Evaluation of temperature extremes from an ensemble of transient RCM simulations driven by several AOGCMs2009Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 295.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Changes in daily temperature variability over Europe from an ensemble of RCM simulations driven by several AOGCMs2009Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 296.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Changes in daily temperature variability over Europe from an ensemble of regional climate simulations driven by several AOGCMs.2009Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 297.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Intraseasonal temperature variability over Europe in a future climate scenario2008In: Abstracts of the contributions of the EGU General Assembly 2008., 2008, Vol. 10, article id EGU2008-A-09248Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 298.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Projected changes in daily temperature variability over Europe in an ensemble of RCM simulations2009Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 299.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Nordic weather extremes as simulated by the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model: model evaluation and future projections2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 300.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    European weather extremes as simulated by the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model2010In: Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2010, Vol. 12, article id EGU2010-4204Conference paper (Refereed)
3456789 251 - 300 of 485
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