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  • 21.
    Kjellström, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Atmospheric response to different sea surface temperatures in the Baltic Sea: coupled versus uncoupled regional climate model experiments2005Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 36, nr 4-5, s. 397-409Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A climate change experiment with a fully coupled high resolution regional atmosphere-ocean model for the Baltic Sea is compared to an experiment with a stand-alone regional atmospheric model. Both experiments simulate 30-yr periods with boundary data from the same global climate model system. This particular global model system simulates very high sea surface temperatures during summer for the Baltic Sea at the end of this century under the investigated emission scenario. We show that the sea surface temperatures are less warm in the coupled regional model compared to the global model system and that this difference is dependent on the atmospheric circulation. In summers with a high NAO index and thereby relatively strong westerly flow over the North Atlantic the differences between the two models are small, while in summers with a weaker, more northerly flow over the Baltic Sea the differences are very large. The higher sea surface temperatures in the uncoupled experiment lead to an intensified hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea, with more than 30% additional precipitation in summer taken as an average over the full 30-yr period and over the entire Baltic Sea. The differences are mostly local, over the sea, but there are differences in surrounding land areas.

  • 22.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Simulated Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice in Different Climates of the Baltic2004Ingår i: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, Vol. 4, s. 162-163Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 23.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, U
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios2004Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 22, nr 1, s. 13-31Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A basic analysis is presented for a series of regional climate change simulations that were conducted by the Swedish Rossby Centre and contribute to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) project. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, a 30-year control run and two 30-year scenario runs (based on the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) were made with the regional model. In this way, four realizations of climate change from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 were obtained. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario (although with few qualitative differences) and in most cases in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RE) than in the HadAM3H-driven (RH) regional simulations. In all the scenario runs, the warming in northern Europe is largest in winter or late autumn. In central and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer when it locally reaches 10 degreesC in the RE-A2 simulation and 6-7 degreesC in the RH-A2 and RE-B2 simulations. The four simulations agree on a general increase in precipitation in northern Europe especially in winter and on a general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the change differ markedly between RH and RE. This reflects very different changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year, which also lead to quite different simulated changes in windiness. All four simulations show a large increase in the lowest minimum temperatures in northern, central and eastern Europe, most likely due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases.

  • 24. Doos, K
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The Baltic haline conveyor belt or the overturning circulation and mixing in the Baltic2004Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, nr 4-5, s. 261-266Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A study of the water-mass circulation of the Baltic has been undertaken by making use of a three dimensional Baltic Sea model simulation. The saline water from the North Atlantic is traced through the Danish Sounds into the Baltic where it upwells and mixes with the fresh water inflow from the rivers forming a Baltic haline conveyor belt. The mixing of the saline water from the Great Belt and Oresund with the fresh water is investigated making use of overturning stream functions and Lagrangian trajectories. The overturning stream function was calculated as a function of four different vertical coordinates (depth, salinity, temperature and density) in order to understand the path of the water and where it upwells and mixes. Evidence of a fictive depth overturning cell similar to the Deacon Cell in the Southern Ocean was found in the Baltic proper corresponding to the gyre circulation around Gotland, which vanishes when the overturning stream function is projected on density layers. A Lagrangian trajectory study was performed to obtain a better view of the circulation and mixing of the saline and fresh waters. The residence time of the water masses in the Baltic is calculated to be 26-29 years and the Lagrangian dispersion reaches basin saturation after 5 years.

  • 25.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea2004Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, nr 4-5, s. 242-248Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The physical state of the Baltic Sea in possible future climates is approached by numerical model experiments with a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model driven by different global simulations. Scenarios and recent climate simulations are compared to estimate changes. The sea surface is clearly warmer by 2.9degreesC in the ensemble mean. The horizontal pattern of average annual mean warming can largely be explained in terms of ice-cover reduction. The transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the Baltic Sea shows a changed seasonal cycle: a reduced heat loss in fall, increased heat uptake in spring, and reduced heat uptake in summer. The interannual variability of surface temperature is generally increased. This is associated with a smoothed frequency distribution in northern basins. The overall heat budget shows increased solar radiation to the sea surface, which is balanced by changes of the other heat flux components.

2345678 21 - 25 av 36
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