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  • 16.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Beatty, Christof Konig
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model2012Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 38, nr 11-12, s. 2389-2408Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations.

  • 17. Sterl, Andreas
    et al.
    Bintanja, Richard
    Brodeau, Laurent
    Gleeson, Emily
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Schmith, Torben
    Semmler, Tido
    Severijns, Camiel
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    A look at the ocean in the EC-Earth climate model2012Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, nr 11, s. 2631-2657Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    EC-Earth is a newly developed global climate system model. Its core components are the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as the atmosphere component and the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) developed by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) as the ocean component. Both components are used with a horizontal resolution of roughly one degree. In this paper we describe the performance of NEMO in the coupled system by comparing model output with ocean observations. We concentrate on the surface ocean and mass transports. It appears that in general the model has a cold and fresh bias, but a much too warm Southern Ocean. While sea ice concentration and extent have realistic values, the ice tends to be too thick along the Siberian coast. Transports through important straits have realistic values, but generally are at the lower end of the range of observational estimates. Exceptions are very narrow straits (Gibraltar, Bering) which are too wide due to the limited resolution. Consequently the modelled transports through them are too high. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is also at the lower end of observational estimates. The interannual variability of key variables and correlations between them are realistic in size and pattern. This is especially true for the variability of surface temperature in the tropical Pacific (El Nio). Overall the ocean component of EC-Earth performs well and helps making EC-Earth a reliable climate model.

  • 18.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jansson, Christer
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance2011Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, nr 1, s. 4-23Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
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