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  • 151.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Model assessment of the predicted environmental consequences for OSPAR problem areas following nutrient reductions2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is used for the assessment of eutrophication status in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat, and of the following long-term effects on the ecosystem for the 50% nutrient reduction target (PARCOM Recommendation 88/2). Model validation and the final reporting of the results in accordance with the OSPAR comprehensive procedure are presented.The model is validated by a comparison of a long time series (1985-2002) of the model results to data from a number of stations representing different parts of the model domain. A quantitative examination of the model performance is done by a comparison between the seasonal and annual averages of the model results and in-situ data. The model response to nutrient reductions shows that reducing nutrient inputs from land have the largest effects on the nitrate concentrations in the Kattegat and along the Swedish coast in the Skagerrak. The effects on phosphate concentrations are relatively small. The largest effect obtained from a 50% reduction of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus from the runoff in one country alone is obtained for Sweden. This model experiment reduces the nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations in the Swedish coastal waters by 5%-10% and 3%-6%, respectively. The annual net production is reduced by 2%-4% and changes in sedimentation are less than 1%. The largest reduction is found in the Kattegat.The combined effect from a 50% reduction of anthropogenic nutrient supplies from land and an anticipated realistic reduction of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea reduces the nitrate and phosphate concentrations in the Kattegat and the Swedish parts of the Skagerrak coastal area by 20%-30%. The average chlorophyll concentrations are reduced by 8%-11%. The annual net production and the sedimentation are reduced by 12%-20% and 5%-12%, respectively.

  • 152.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Gustavsson, Hanna
    SMHI.
    Harbman, Ulrika
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johansson, Barbro
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Improvement HBV model Rhine in FEWS: Final report2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Between 1997 and 2004, the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), in cooperation with the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst, set up and calibrated the HBV rainfall-runoff model for the river Rhine. The model performed well for its original purpose, but less well when it was incorporated in the forecasting system FEWS in 2005. The main reason for the deteriorating performance was that the precipitation, temperature and evaporation data available for real-time applications differed from the ones used for the calibration. Another problem was that the accuracy in the low flow simulations was considered inadequate for navigation forecasts. It was thus decided that the HBV model set-up for Rhine should be updated and expanded in its functionalities primarily for use in operational forecasting. The tasks given to SMHI were:· To evaluate the evaporation calculations in HBV and recommend the best one to be used in the forecasting application.· To recalibrate the model using operationally available input data and with the aim to adequately model the whole range of flows.· To activate the HBV routine for updating model state variables before a forecast (PT updating)A new precipitation and temperature data set was provided for the calibration. This data set is consistent with the data to be used in the forecasting application, but improved as compared to the first data set used in the FEWS-DE system. To improve low flow simulations, a new model option, the contributing area approach, was used. The model was recalibrated using an automatic routine. Some minor manual parameter adjustments were made in a few sub-catchments, mainly to correct for anthropogenic influences and backwater effects on discharge measurements. The calibration was done locally for some 95 sub catchments, and verified both locally and for the total river flow.The overall model performance after recalibration with the new input data was at least as good as for the original calibration. Low flow recession and variations were reproduced to a greater degree. An evaluation with the old parameters and the new input data showed that the new data set in itself was not enough for satisfactory model performance. The recalibration was necessary. PT updating was shown to improve the forecast accuracy both for low/intermediate flows and for high flows. The effect diminishes with forecast lead time, but still remains at least up to the fifth day.

  • 153.
    Andersson, Stefan
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Omstedt, Gunnar
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Validering av SIMAIR mot mätningar av PM10, NO2 och bensen: Utvärdering för svenska tätorter och trafikmiljöer avseende år 2004 och 20052009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna studie har SIMAIR (med SIMAIR avses i denna rapport SIMAIRväg) validerats mot mätningar av PM10, NO2 och bensen för 19 mätstationer i gaturum och 21 mätstationer i urban bakgrund. Trafikmiljöerna är av skiftande karaktär och från olika delar av Sverige. Mätstationerna i urban bakgrund är samtliga belägna vid en central plats i respektive tätort, men placeringen varierar (både mätningar vid torg och gågator samt takmätningar förekommer). Vid valideringen jämförs ett antal statistiska mått för att kvantifiera överensstämmelsen mellan uppmätta och beräknade halter. I EUs Luftdirektiv finns kvalitetsmått angivna, som fastställer maximalt acceptabel osäkerhet för modellberäkningar. Den bästa tolkningen av denna osäkerhet är begreppet RPEmax, det maximala relativa percentilfelet för 90% av stationerna, vilket är kvalitetsmåttet som tillämpas i denna studie. Utöver detta mått används även medianen för RPE (RPEmedian), vilket ur modelleringssynpunkt kanske är mer intressant. Andra statistiska mått som utvärderas är uppmätta och beräknade årsmedelvärden, percentiler för dygns- och timmedelvärden, variationskoefficient (CoV) och korrelationskoefficient (r). Där signalen är stark, det vill säga i trafikerade gaturum, är överensstämmelsen mellan uppmätta och beräknade halter god. För PM10 och NO2 klaras EUs kvalitetskrav med tämligen stor marginal, men för bensen överskattar dock SIMAIR halterna systematiskt ijämförelse med mätdata. För urban bakgrund är resultatet relativt bra för många stationer. EUs kvalitetskrav för PM10 klaras, men för NO2 underskattas halterna. Vad gäller bensen i urban bakgrund överskrids kvalitetskravet marginellt. Emellertid är resultaten bättre än för gaturum. Korrelationen är överlag tämligen stark för de flesta platser och SIMAIR återger representativ säsongsvariation av halterna.Att halterna av NO2 underskattas i den urbana bakgrunden kan delvis förklaras med att mätningar ofta representerar halter i punkter medan modellen representerar halter i kilometerrutor. Ur valideringssynpunkt är urbana mätstationer i taknivå lämpligast att göra jämförelser mot, då det finns viss risk att lokal haltpåverkan får genomslag i mätningar vid exempelvis öppna torg och gågator. En annan förklaring till att halterna i urban bakgrund underskattas är att SIMAIRs urbana modell, BUM, har brister i beskrivningen av stabila atmosfäriska förhållanden, vilket delvis kan förklara den stora underskattningen av halter av NO2 i norra Sverige. Parametriseringen vid stabila förhållanden behöver förbättras, vilket är ett arbete som har påbörjats. För tillfället används en statistisk metod för att korrigera detta, kallad klimatkorrigering, och denna metod visar sig förbättra modellberäkningarna för flertalet platser i Norrland. För Sandviken leder klimatkorrigering dock till att de beräknade halterna blir avsevärt högre än de uppmätta och här blir RPE större än innan. Den geografiska gränsen mellan var klimatkorrigering är lämplig och inte är således inte helt klar. För höga emissionsfaktorer för vägtrafikens utsläpp av bensen kan troligtvis förklara överskattningen som sker för beräkningarna i gaturum av bensenhalter. Denna del behöver granskas och uppdateras.

  • 154.
    Wern, Lennart
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sveriges vindklimat 1901-2008: Analys av trend i geostrofisk vind2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    En studie har gjorts hur vinden har varierat i Sverige under perioden 1901 - 2008. Eftersom det saknas långa homogena mätserier av vindhastighet i Sverige har vi utgått från tryckmätningar och beräknatden s.k. geostrofiska vinden i elva trianglar som täcker Sverige. Eftersom bara tre observationer per dag (morgon, middag och kväll) har funnits att tillgå så kan det ha blåst mer mellan observationerna.Ett stort arbete har lagts ner på att kontrollera och rätta felaktiga observationer. Mellan åren 1951 och 2008 har varje observerat värde jämförts med ett interpolerat värde. Om skillnaden varit mer än 4 - 5 hPa har en karta analyserats för att kunna avgöra om det i databasen lagrade värdet varit korrekt. Kanske tusen tryckkartor har analyserats. Även två närliggande stationers observationer har jämförts till exempel Bromma och Observatoriekullen. Före 1951 har granskningsarbetet varit begränsat eftersom digitaliserade data saknas för fler stationer än de som ingår i denna undersökning.Förändringen av vindklimatet i elva trianglar som täcker huvuddelen av Sverige har studerats medhjälp av flera olika mått, bland annat:- Årets högsta vindhastighet- Årets medelvindhastighet- Antal fall på minst 25 m/s under året- Potentiell vindenergi under åretÅrets högsta geostrofiska vindhastighet har även jämförts med högsta havsvattenstånd och skogsskador.I det studerade materialet inträffade den absolut högsta geostrofiska vindhastigheten den 13 januari 1984 i den sydligaste triangeln Göteborg - Visby - Lund. Då beräknades den geostrofiska vindhastigheten till 66 m/s och vindriktningen var 235°.Denna undersökning visar bland annat att:- Årets högsta vindhastighet har ökat i fem trianglar och minskat i sex trianglar sedan 1951. Den sammanvägde trenden i Sverige visar på en svag ökning som inte är statistiskt signifikant.- Antal tillfällen per år då vindhastigheten varit minst 25 m/s har minskat i sju av de elva trianglarna sedan 1951.- Medelvindhastigheten har minskat i tio av de elva trianglarna sedan 1951. För fyra trianglar i norra Sverige är denna minskning statistiskt signifikant. Sammantaget för Sverige har medelvindhastigheten minskat med 4 %.- På samma sätt har den potentiella vindenergin minskat i dessa tio trianglar sedan 1951-talet. Minskningen är statistiskt signifikant i de fyra nordliga trianglarna. Sammantaget för Sverige har energin minskat med 7 %.

  • 155.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    The Coastal Zone Model2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    SMHI has developed a model system for water quality calculations on land, in lakes and rivers and in coastal zone waters around Sweden. The system is called HOME Water where HOME stands for Hydrology, Oceanography and Meteorology for the Environment. The focus in this report is to describe the coastal zone model which is the part of the HOME Water system that calculates the state in the coastal zone along the whole Swedish coast. The coastal zone model is a coupled 1-dimensional physical and biogeochemical model. The physical model is called the Probe model and is fully described by Svensson (1998). It calculates the horizontal velocities, temperature and salinity profiles. The surface mixing is calculated by a k -e turbulence model and the bottom mixing is a parameterization based on the stability in the bottom water. Ice formation growth and decay is also included in the model. Probe has a high vertical resolution with a vertical grid cell size of 0.5m in the top 4m. The grid cell size then increases as the depth increases. In the depth interval 4 -70m the cell size is 1.0m, from 70 – 100m it is 2m, from 100-250m it is 5m and if the depth is larger then 250m the grid cell size is 10m. This means that the model calculates the vertical profiles of all its variables and assumes that they are horizontally homogeneous in the studied area. In order to include horizontal variations in a larger area it is divided into several sub-basins. These subbasins are identical to the defined national water bodies according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Each sub-basin is described by the hypsographical curve. Connecting sub-basins exchange water and properties through connecting sounds. The biogeochemical model is called SCOBI (Swedish Coastal Ocean BIogeochemical model). In SCOBI nine variables are solved where seven are the pelagic variables: zooplankton, phytoplankton, detritus, nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and oxygen. In the bentic layer the model solves for the two variables nitrogen and phosphorus.

  • 156.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wilk, Julie
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Warburton, Michele
    School of Bioresources Engineering & Environmental Hydrology University of KwaZulu-Natal Private Bag X01, Scottsville, 3209 South Africa.
    Local Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa - Recommendations for Adaptation2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report originates from a project entitled Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Local Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources (PAMO), financed by the Swedish Development Agency and Research Links cooperation (NRF and the Swedish Research Council). The project is based on interactions between stakeholders in the Mhlwazini/Bergville area of the Thukela River basin, climate and water researchers from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) during a series of workshops held in 2007-2009. Between the workshops, the researcher’s compiled locally relevant climate change related information, based on requests from the workshop participants, as a basis for this adaptation plan. The aim is to provide a local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources and adaptation strategies. The assessment identifies existing climate-water related problems, current adaptation strategies and recommendations for future action based on likelihoods for change and the severity if such changes will occur.Denna rapport har sitt ursprung i projektet Deltagande modellering för bedömning av lokal inverkan av klimatvariabilitet och förändringar på vattenresurser (PAMO), finansierat av Sida och Research Links (NFR i Sydafrika, samt VR i Sverige). Projektet baseras på interaktion mellan vattenintressenter i Mhlwazini/Bergville området av Thukelas avrinningsområde och klimat och vattenforskare från University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) och SMHI under en serie av workshops under 2007-2009. Mellan workshops har forskarna tagit fram klimatförändringsrelaterad information med lokal relevans, baserat på önskemål från deltagarna i workshops. Denna information har sedan använts som ett underlag till framtagandet av en anpassningsplan. Syftet är att tillhandahålla en lokal bedömning av sårbarhet relaterad till påverkan på vattenresurser av klimatförändringar, samt en lokalt föreslagen anpassningsstrategi. Existerande klimatrelaterade problem och nuvarande anpassningsstrategier har identifierats och rekommendationer för framtida aktioner, baserade på sannolikhet för förändringar och kännbarheten av konsekvenserna om dessa förändringar inträffar.

  • 157.
    Andreasson, Kristin
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Wikner, Johan
    Umeå Marine Sciences Centre (UMSC).
    Abrahamsson, Berndt
    Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University (SISU).
    Melrose, Chris
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
    Nyberg, Svante
    Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University (SISU).
    Primary production measurments: An intercalibration during a cruise in the Kattegat and the Baltic Sea2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In an effort to compare the primary production (PP) measurements in the Baltic Sea, four institutes got together in an intercalibration exercise with the aim to obtain similar values and a common method protocol. The strategy was to compare different methods on the same water sample and to identify sources to any differences. The four methods showed different results and the differences were systematic. This was due to that the methods measured different things and to that there were differences in the manuals followed as well as to differences in the measurements. The manuals gave also possibilities to choose different variations of the method. We have now managed to list all the differences and have a plan to investigate each step further with the aim to agree on a common method. This needs however to be tested to find the best method. The first step is to carefully measure the spectral composition of our incubators. We will see to that we get proper spectra and enough light. Other differences to be tested are the incubation time, the quality of 14C added and the end addition of hydrochloric acid, HCl. We think that the measurement of primary production is important and want to do it in the best possible way. To do this we need to have intercalibrations or a regular basis. We also need to test all the steps to find the most suitable method. The discussions will continue until a common manual is agreed upon. We also need to invite institutes from around the Baltic Sea to agree on a change in the common manuals.

  • 158.
    Wern, Lennart
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Korttidsnederbörd i Sverige 1995 - 20082009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Korta men intensiva regnhändelser är mycket viktiga inom bland annat urban hydrologi då vi här har att göra med snabba förlopp där avrinningen sker från små ytor som till stor del är hårdgjorda. Nederbördsserier med hög upplösning har därför mycket stor betydelse för all planering, analys och dimensionering av dagvattensystem, oavsett om det är frågan om rörnät eller öppna diken. Regn med varaktighet 15 min till 96 timmar har studerats genom att analysera nederbördsdata från SMHIs nät av automatiska väderstationer.Dessa stationer började installeras under våren 1995 och från början av 1996 var de flesta stationer igång. Den period vi har studerat är maj 1995 till september 2008. 114 automatstationerna har registrerat nederbörd under någon del av denna period. Sammanlagt finns 1211 stationsår med 15 minuters nederbörd. Data har granskats och ett mindre antal orimliga observationer har tagits bort eller rättats. Sammanställningar av årets största regn med olika varaktigheter har gjorts. Nederbördsmängder med olika varaktighet från 15 min till 96 timmar för olika återkomsttider har beräknats med extremvärdesanalys.Den studerade perioden är för kort och antalet stationer är för få för att bestämma regionala skillnader i Sverige av korttidsnederbörd. Därför har medelvärden av korttidsnederbörd för hela Sverige beräknats. Resultat har jämförts med tidigare studier av Dahlström (2006) och Hernebring (2006). Överensstämmelsen är god för kortare regn och kortare återkomsttider.

  • 159.
    Höglund, Anders
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Broman, Barry
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kriezi, Ekaterini
    SMHI.
    Validation and correction of regionalised ERA-40 wind fields over the Baltic Sea using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model RCA3.02009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Surface wind fields from ERA-40 regionalised with the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model RCA3.0 are underestimated. In this report a method for correcting the wind fields is evaluated. The method is based on the empirical linear relationship between gusty winds and mean wind. For the validation observations from 26 automatic stations along the Swedish coasts have been used. We found that the validation of wind over the open sea is difficult due to the impact of land that cannot be resolved properly by the atmospheric model as the horizontal grid resolution amounts to about 25 km. In addition, long homogeneous wind data sets are not available due to a switch from manual to automatic readings during the 1990s. The results show that the correction method improves the frequency distribution of simulated wind speed at most stations. Thus the corrected wind fields may be used to force Baltic Sea models during 1961-2004. However, the suggested correction method should be regarded only as a temporary solution while waiting for improved boundary layer

  • 160.
    Karlson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Funquist, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kaitala, Seppo
    FIMR, Finnish Institute for Marine Research/SYKE Marine Centre.
    Sørensen, Kai
    NIVA, Norwegian Institute for Water Research.
    Infrastructure for marine monitoring and operational oceanography2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Automated systems for observing physical, chemical and biological conditions in the sea are being implemented worldwide as part of the Global Ocean Observing System. This report describes their use in the Baltic and the Skagerrak-Kattegat areas. An evaluation of the use of FerryBox systems in the waters around Sweden shows that the quality of data from near surface waters is high, and that the frequent sampling makes possible observations of short term phenomena such as algal blooms. These events are often overlooked by infrequent sampling using research vessels, which leads to erroneous estimates of phytoplankton biomass, ecosystem carrying capacity etc. Data come from the Helsinki Lübeck route, operated by the Finnish Institute for Marine Research and from routes in the Skagerrak- Kattegat operated by the Norwegian Institute for Water Research. FerryBox data were compared with data from traditional sampling, principally from RV Argos operated by SMHI, but also from the HELCOM databank at ICES.Observations using automated systems such as satellites, stationary platforms (buoys and piles) and FerryBox systems may contribute substantially to improving the quality of results from models describing the physical and biogeochemical conditions in Scandinavian waters. Boundary conditions for models can be obtained using measurements in the eastern North Sea and in the Skagerrak, while data assimilation from a network of buoys, FerryBoxsystems and research vessels improves the quality of model results. Today, between four and six automated oceanographic observation systems are in operation in Swedish waters, which can be compared to more than 700 for meteorological purposes. A dramatic increase in the number of observations is necessary for effective data assimilation. To make the observations useful for biogeochemical models, parameters such as inorganic nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and oxygen must be added to the basic parameters salinity and temperature.A detailed proposal for a new infrastructure for marine monitoring and operational oceanography in Sweden is put forward. FerryBox systems should be operated in collaboration with institutes in Finland, Estonia, Poland, Germany, Denmark and Norway. Coastal buoys contribute to the monitoring needs of the EU Water Framework Directive while offshore buoys are for long term climate and ecological research and for fulfilment of the EU Marine Strategy Directive . Products combining satellite data with in-situ observations should be developed. These automated systems augment monitoring using research vessels but do not replace it. SMHI, the Swedish Institute for the Marine Environment, the Swedish Water Authorities, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Swedish Navy, Coast guard, Maritime Administration and Board of Fisheries are proposed to govern and operate the system, with SMHI as the lead partner. The function -National data host for operational oceanographic data- is proposed, to be established at the National Oceanographic Data Centre at SMHI.A number of indicators for describing the status of the pelagic environment around Sweden are proposed. Some already exist while some are new. New ones include indicators for acidification, changes in plankton community structure and physical climate indicators. Basin wide indicators are based on measurements using a combination of sampling platforms. Other indicators are more specific, e.g. for transport between basins and inflow of water to the deep basins of the Baltic Proper.This report was commissioned by the Swedish National Environment Protection Agency

  • 161.
    Robertson, Lennart
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Ring, Sture
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Spridningsberäkningar för bromcyan2009Report (Other academic)
  • 162.
    Josefsson, Weine
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ottosson Löfvenius, Mikaell
    SMHI.
    Measurements of total ozone 2006-20082009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report summarises the quality control, quality assurance and measurements of total ozone at Norrköping and Vindeln for the period 2006-2008. Significant incidents affecting the measurements are noted. Daily data are listed and plotted.

  • 163.
    Skogen, Morten
    et al.
    Havforskningsinstituttet, Norway.
    Søiland, H.
    Havforskningsinstituttet, Norway.
    Almroth, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sehested Hansen, Ian
    DHI Water & Environment, Denmark.
    The year 2005: An environmental status report of the Skagerrak, Kattegat and the North Sea2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This is the second year joint status report for the North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat area (Fig.1) carried out by SMHI, IMR and DHI as a part of the project BANSAI, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group. The aim of the project is to integrate marine observations and ecological model simulations in an annual assessment of the Baltic and the North seas. The present report is mainly based on model estimates of some of the indicators suggested by the OSPAR Common Procedure (c.f. Appendix) for the identification of the eutrophication status of the maritime area (OSPAR, 2002 and 2003). This first joint report serve as a basis for the on-going discussions about the ecological quality indicators included in the assessment, and the way to merge results from different models and observations for the assessment.Estimations of river discharges and model results are used to describe the degree of nutrient enrichment (Category I) defined by the riverine loadings of nitrogen and phosphorus, and winter surface concentrations and ratios of DIN and DIP. The direct effects of nutrient enrichment during the growing season (Category II) are described in terms of the mean and maximum chlorophyll concentrations and model estimations of primary production. The ratio between diatoms and flagellates is used as an indicator of region specific phytoplankton indicator species (Category II). The indirect effects of nutrient enrichment (Category III) are discussed in terms of oxygen depletion in bottom waters. Estimations of region specific background concentrations and threshold values are gathered from the literature and used for the model assessment.The three model systems used for the joint assessment (Fig. 2) cover different parts of the North Sea, Skagerrak and the Kattegat area. Detailed descriptions of the models may be found on the websites presented below the figure.In section 2 the key messages from this assessment will be presented. In section 3, each country gives a brief observations overview for 2005 and some references to other sources and reports that might be useful for the readers. The methods of the assessment are described in section 4. Statistical characteristics of model results and in-situ data are presented in section 5 and the model assessment of eutrophication status is done in section 6. Conclusions and comments to the assessment are presented in section 7.

  • 164.
    Josefsson, Weine
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ottosson Löfvenius, Mikaell
    SMHI.
    Total ozone from zenith radiance measurements: An empirical model approach2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    At Vindeln monitoring of the total ozone has been done using the Dobson spectrophotometer #30 since 1991. The fundamental observation is done by observing the direct solar radiance. However, when clouds cover the sun an observation of the zenith radiance is collected. This type of measurement is called a zenith observation and by using an empirical relation one can deduce the total ozone. Up to now an old empirical relation based on data from Boulder USA has been applied. In this report we present the development and testing of a site specific empirical relation.

  • 165.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Temporal and spatial monitoring of eutrophication variables in CEMP2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The OSPAR Revised Eutrophication Monitoring Programme (ETG 05/3/Info.1-E) requests that nutrient "monitoring should include sufficient samples to confirm that the maximum winter nutrient concentration has been determined", while para. 7 of the Terms of Reference for the preparation of guidance on the spatial and temporal resolution of monitoring for nutrients and eutrophication effects (ICG 003) states that "there are at least nine different water types covered by the OSPAR Maritime Area"..."guidance must, therefore, be at least complex enough to cover each type with sufficient clarity to guide contracting parties in their evaluation of the temporal and spatial coverage required to adequately assess the relevant water body".This document summarises the national reports submitted to the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Monitoring, and highlights common problems faced in the monitoring of (primarily) inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll. In addition, it presents tests of different approaches to solving the spatial and temporal sampling problems associated with delivering marine eutrophication data.Based on tests of model data, monthly sampling appears adequate to give a good estimate of annual mean concentrations. Buoy data suggests that this would not be sufficient where there is tidal variability. It was not possible to determine maximum concentrations through a practical ship sampling scheme, or by using extreme value statistics.The optimum sampling programme to observe rapid events is likely to be a combination of ferrybox systems, which appear to be reliable and give both good spatial and temporal coverage, combined with buoy observations. To ensure data of sufficient quality, these must be controlled against conventional research vessel observations. Research vessels still have a role in seasonal mapping, and in providing data of sufficient quality for trend analysis from a large area. This is likely to remain so, at leastuntil technologies such as gliders and optical nutrient sensors become widely available and capable of delivering reliable, high quality data.

  • 166.
    Omstedt, Gunnar
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Stefan
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Vintervägar med eller utan dubbdäck: Beräkningar av emissioner och halter av partiklar för olika dubbdäcksscenarier2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vårt klimat har stor inverkan på luftkvaliteten. Under vintermånaderna är temperaturen i hela landet ofta

  • 167.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Preliminary use of CM-SAF cloud and radiation products for evaluation of regional climate simulations: Visiting Scientist Report Climate Monitoring SAF (CM-SAF)2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We have compared monthly mean cloud and radiation fields from the EUMETSAT Climate Monitoring SAF (CM-SAF, http://www.cmsaf.eu) data base with the clouds and radiation simulated by the Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA) and by the European Centre Medium range Weather Forecast model (ECMWF) over Europe and North Africa for the time period January 2005 to December 2006.ECMWF and RCA overestimate the cloud fraction by 20% over snow covered regions in the north east of Europe and overestimate the surface downwelling longwave radiation (SDL) by 20-40W/m2 and surface outgoing longwave radiation by 10-30W/m2. The RCA-simulated clouds have too much cloud water in northern Europe in summer and in autumn and they therefore reflect too much shortwave radiation at the TOA (TRS) and this also leads to an underestimation of the incoming shortwave radiation (SIS) at the surface. Over most of Europe and over sea ECMWF (all year) and RCA (in winter-spring) underestimate the cloud fraction which could explain a corresponding underestimate of TRS, overestimate of SIS and underestimate of SDL. The satellites overestimate cloud cover over sea due to problems in the treatment of sub-pixel cloudiness and therefore the models underestimates are larger over sea. Mainly RCA but also ECMWF overestimate cloud fraction on top of mountains and underestimate it along mountain ranges and have corresponding differences in the TOA and surface radiation fluxes compared to the CM-SAF data.Over North Africa RCA underestimates TRS by -11W/m2 and overestimates the TOA emitted thermal radiation (TET) by 8W/m2. ECMWF underestimates TRS by -28W/m2 and overestimates TET by 14W/m2. These errors are similar to what has been found for many other global models and are attributed to clear sky errors either due to too high surface temperatures, errors in emissivity, albedo or lack of aerosols. Adding clear and cloudy skies radiation fluxes to the CM-SAF data base would help us to understand the reasons for ECMWF and RCA errors. The polar orbiting satellite retrieval for 2005-2006 erroneously overestimated cloud fraction over North Africa, which also affects the CM-SAF derived surface radiation fluxes.

  • 168.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Regional analys av klimat, vattentillgång och höga flöden2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Rapporten beskriver långtidsvariationen i nederbörd, temperatur, vattentillgång och höga flöden i Sverige, med särskilt tonvikt på frågeställningar av betydelse för vattenkraftindustrin.Utgångspunkten för studien är regionala serier för nederbörd, temperatur och avrinning för tillrinningsområdena till de fyra havsbassängerna i Östersjön och Västerhavet: Bottenviken, Bottenhavet, Egentliga Östersjön och Västerhavet.

  • 169.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    TESS - Traffic Emissions, Socioeconomic valuation and Socioeconomic measures: Part 2: Exposure of the European population to atmospheric particles (PM) caused by emissions in Stockholm2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Model calculations have been performed to estimate the effects of emissions in Stockholm on the population exposure to particulate matter (PM) outside the city.The impacts of five different emissions were investigated: Road traffic exhaust, split into Light Duty Vehicles (LDV) and Heavy Duty Vehicles(HDV), Sea Traffic, Power Plants and Residential Heating. The emissions from non-exhaust (mainly road wear due to use of studded tyres) were also treated, in addition to combustion sources.The uncertainties in the emission estimates for Residential Heating using biomass (wood) are very large but it seems that it is an important PM source in Stockholm. In this report two estimates of the emissions have been used. In the lowest estimate, which seems more realistic, the contribution to population exposure of directly emitted combustion particles from residential heating is of similar magnitude (37%) as the contribution from road traffic exaust (42%). For all sources, except Sea Traffic, the total population exposure to combustion PM is much larger within Stockholm than outside; for shipping the total exposure is about as large outside the city as within.For all sources, except residential heating, the secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) exposure is higher than the combustion particle exposure. Non-exhaust particles dominate the total impact on PM10 exposure, contributing about 60-70% to the total exposure, due to all the studied sources in Stockholm. The calculated population exposure due to the wear particles is to a very large extent (87%) occurring within the Greater Stockholm area.

  • 170.
    Omstedt, Gunnar
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Andersson, Stefan
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Johansson, Christer
    ITM Stockholms Universitet.
    Löfgren, Bengt-Erik
    ÄFAB.
    Luftkvalitet och småskalig biobränsleeldning: Tillämpningar av SIMAIRved för några kommuner2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    SIMAIRrwc is a Web based evaluation tool for meeting the EU directive on air pollution limits in residential areas using wood combustion. The background is a four-year research program (2001-2004) called Biomass Combustion Health and Environment. Some conclusions from this program were that emissions from small scale wood combustion can influence human health mainly due to high emitting old wood stoves during cold weather conditions and that the air quality in such areas can improve significantly if old wood stoves were replaced by modern wood boilers attached to a storage tank or with a pellet boiler. SIMAIRrwc is based on the same principles as SIMAIRroad, which is a Web based evaluation tool for road traffic i.e. coupled model system using different models on local, urban and regional geographical scales, best available emission data, but at the same time presented in a very simplified way. In this project SIMAIRrwc has been applied in five different Swedish municipalities. The aim has been to apply and improve the model in cooperation with the municipalities. The conclusions from the project are:- Small scale wood combustions in residential areas are local problems which sometimes include only a few houses and/or wood-burners.- Air quality problems related to the EU directive are mainly due to particles.- Combinations of residential areas with wood combustion and emissions from nearby dense traffic roads might give rise to bad air quality.- Actions require knowledge about individual equipment which needs information from the local chimneysweeps.- The best way to identify problem areas is to use model calculations.- If model calculations indicate risks of exceeding air quality limits, then new calculations should be made withimproved input data taking into account for example information of district heating or other installations thatcan effect the emissions.• Before actions are taken it may also be useful to make measurements. The measurement site can then beselected in the area where the model calculations show the larges impact.• SIMAIRrwc is a powerful tool that can be used for identification and visualisation of areas where there mightbe air quality problems due to residential wood combustion.

  • 171.
    Andersson, Stefan
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Omstedt, Gunnar
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Dagens och framtidens partikelhalter i Sverige: Utredning av exponeringsminskningsmål för PM2.5 enligt nytt luftdirektiv2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I det nya EU-direktivet för luftkvalitet definieras ett exponeringskoncentrationstak för PM2.5. Detta takvärde, som inte får överskridas efter år 2015, är satt till 20 μg/m3 som årsmedelvärde. Eftersom även lägre halter påverkar människors hälsa negativt införs även ett exponeringsminskningsmål av partikelhalter i urban bakgrund. Hur stort exponeringsminskningsmålet blir för en viss plats beror på PM2.5-halterna vid referensåret 2010. Högre halt kräver högre relativ reducering till år 2020. I denna studie utreds det nya direktivets betydelse för Sverige. Utgångsläget kartläggs genom analys av mätdata av PM2.5 för ett antal platser runt om i Sverige. Olika emissionsscenarier tillämpas för att undersöka hur den regionala PM2.5-halten och långdistansbidraget kan komma att ändras från nuläget till år 2020 genom simuleringar med spridningsmodellen MATCH. Då det gäller det lokala haltbidragets betydelse för totalhalten av PM2.5 i nuläget respektive för år 2020, undersöks detta genom beräkningar i SIMAIR, för olika emissionsscenarier som innefattar dubbdäcksanvändning, teknikutveckling och trafikökning. Mätdata har sammanställts och analyserats för 25 mätplatser, varav 4 regionala bakgrundsstationer, 8 urbana bakgrundsstationer samt 13 mätstationeri gaturum. Uppmätta årsmedelvärden av PM2.5 ligger i gaturum generellt i intervallet 10-18 μg/m3 medan motsvarande värden för urban bakgrundoch regional bakgrund är 9-12 μg/m3 respektive 6-12 μg/m3. Halterna av PM2.5 underskrider 20 μg/m3 för samtliga platser och år, vilket betyder attexponeringskoncentrationstaket redan i dagsläget är uppfyllt. Den relativa skillnaden mellan halter i gaturum och regional bakgrundsluft är betydligtmindre för PM2.5 än för PM10, vilket indikerar att merparten av de fina partiklarna i gaturum härstammar från långdistanskällor. Liksom för PM10observeras också för PM2.5 ett maximum på våren, vilket tyder på att en del av partiklarna från vägslitage och uppvirvling är fina. Långdistanstransporten från kontinentaleuropa leder till en nord-sydlig gradient av PM2.5 i regionala bakgrundsluften. Däremot kan inte någotentydigt latitudberoende observeras för gaturum.För att uppskatta möjliga reduceringar av årsmedelhalten av PM2.5 från år 2010 till år 2020 har modellsimuleringar utförts med den regionalaspridningsmodellen MATCH. Tre olika europeiska emissionsscenarier för 2020 har studerats (CLECLIM, D23LOW och MFRDEEP). Beräkningsresultaten ger reduceringar som uppgår till 1.0-2.5 μg/m3 i södra Sverige och 0.1-0.5 μg/m3 i norra Sverige, för ett troligt emissionsscenario (D23LOW). Utsikterna att uppnå målet 10% minskning av PM2.5-halterna i södra Sverige bedöms därför som goda. Beräkningarna visar också att långdistanstransporten är det dominerande bidraget till PM2.5 i regional bakgrundsluft i Sverige. Slutligen konstateras att för regionala bakgrundshalter av PM2.5 är påverkan från vägtrafikens slitagepartiklar liten. Bibehållen dubbdäcksanvänding år 2020 beräknas geen obetydlig ökning av fina slitagepartiklar i den regionala bakgrundsluften (maximalt ca 0.02 μg/m3) pga ökat trafikarbete, medan minskad användning av dubbdäck kan leda till en liten reducering av halterna till år 2020 (upp till ca 0.1 μg/m3 för scenariot utan dubbdäck). För halter i urbanbakgrundsluft förväntas påverkan vara något större än den som beräknats här.För att beräkna det lokala bidraget till PM2.5 har uppskattningar av totala emissionsfaktorer för PM2.5 gjorts. Uppskattningarna baserades på tidigarestudier med mätdata av hög kvalitet från gaturum i Sverige, Danmark och Tyskland samt modellberäkningar med hjälp av SIMAIRs emissionsmodellför slitagepartiklar. Utgående ifrån emissionsfaktorerna beräknades lokala haltbidrag i gaturummen med SIMAIR för 4 olika emissionsscenarier; (1)nuläge motsvarande år 2004, (2) år 2020 utan förändringar vad gäller dubbdäcksanvändning, (3) år 2020 andelar dubbdäck i hela landet är 30 % samt (4) år 2020 utan dubbdäck. Beräkningarna för dessa scenarier indikerar att under nuvarande förhållanden är det lokala haltbidraget av PM2.5 ca 6 μg/m3 i Stockholm/Hornsgatan, ca 4 μg/m3 i Umeå/Västra Esplanaden och ca 2.5-3 μg/m3 för Göteborg/Gårda och Malmö/Amiralsgatan.Teknikutveckling till år 2020 (scenario 2) minskar lokala haltbidrag med 1.3-2.3 μg/m3 och mindre dubbdäcksanvändning (scenario 3) reducerarhalterna med ytterligare 1-3 μg/m3 i främst Stockholm och Umeå. Däremot blir de beräknade halterna bara marginellt lägre i scenariot helt utandubbdäck jämfört med 30% dubbdäcksanvändning. Detta kan förklaras med att en gata, HC Andersens Boulevard i Köpenhamn, med högemissionsfaktor för uppvirvlingen av vägdamm, har använts som referensgata.

  • 172.
    Trolez, Matthieu
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Johnston, Sheldon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Albert, Peter
    SMHI.
    The impact of varying NWP background information on CM-SAF cloud products: Visiting Scientist Report Climate Monitoring SAF (CM-SAF)2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact of using ancillary data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models in the derivation of cloud parameters from satellite data in the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM-SAF) project. In particular, the sensitivity to the NWP-analysed surface temperature parameter was studied.A one-year dataset of satellite images over the Scandinavian region from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the polar orbiting NOAA satellites was studied. Cloud products were generated by use of the Polar Platform System (PPS) cloud software and the sensitivity to perturbations of the NWP-analysed surface temperature was investigated. In addition, a study on the importance of the chosen NWP model was also included. Results based on three different NWP models (ECMWF, HIRLAM and GME) were analysed.It was concluded that the NWP model influence on the results appears to be small. An interchange of NWP model analysis input data to the PPS cloud processing method did only lead to marginal changes of the resulting CM-SAF cloud products. Thus, the current CM-SAF cloud algorithmsproduce robust results that are not heavily dependent on NWP model background information. Nevertheless, the study demonstrated a natural high sensitivity to the NWP-analysed surface skin temperature. This parameter is crucial for the a priori determination of the thresholds used for the infrared cloud tests of the PPS method. It was shown that a perturbation of the surface skin temperature of one K generally resulted in a change of cloud cover of about 0.5-1 % in absolute cloud amount units. However, if perturbations were in the range 5-10 K the change in cloud cover increased to values between 1 to 2 % per degree, especially for positive perturbations. Important here is that a positive surface temperature perturbation always leads to an increase in the resulting cloud amounts and vice versa.

  • 173.
    Granström, Carl
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Gren, Linda
    SMHI.
    Dahlin, Magdalena
    SMHI.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Utvärdering av SMHIs hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänst under höga flöden under vårfloden 20082008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Detta är en utvärdering av SMHI:s hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänsts arbete vid vårfloden 2008. I dokumentet beskrivs även den hydrologiska situationen för tiden från 24 april till 14 maj.Det höga flödet uppkom på grund av snösmältning. I stora delar av Norrland låg innan vårfloden mycket mer snö än normalt. När värmen kom i slutet av april så skapades en vårflod som genererade höga flöden och vissa översvämningsproblem. I de stora reglerade älvarna uppkom få problem, även fast det blev en rejäl vårflod, se figur 1.Med hjälp av observationer i realtid, meteorologiska prognoser, hydrologiska, prognoser, visualiseringsverktyg och ett nära samarbete med kraftbolagen är SMHI:s hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänst kontinuerligt uppdaterad på det hydrologiska läget i hela Sverige. När sannolikheten bedöms vara större än 50 % för att en varningsnivå överskrids skall en varning utfärdas. Under mycket höga flöden skall SMHI också stötta länsstyrelse och räddningstjänst med meteorologisk och hydrologisk expertis samt med specialanpassade prognoser.SMHI gör dagligen automatiska prognoser för över 80 st utvaldaavrinningsområden i Sverige. Generellt var prognoserna av medelgod kvalité. Under flödet arbetade SMHI ca 650 arbetstimmar utöver det som är normalt för perioden för varningstjänst.SMHI har under perioden 24 april-14 maj skickat ut 18 flödesvarningar och 4 hydrologiska informationer. Träffsäkerheten i årets hydrologiska varningar utvärderas i november varje år och ingår därför inte i denna rapport.Efter flödessituationen skickades en enkät ut till de kommuner, länsstyrelser och kraftbolag som berördes av varningarna. En sammanställning av enkätsvaren och samtliga kommentarer redovisas i denna rapport. Det övergripande omdömet om SMHI:s tjänster var positivt.

  • 174.
    Lindstedt, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Effekter av djupvattenomblandning i Östersjön – en modellstudie2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Blandningen av vattenmassorna har mycket stor betydelse i ett halvinslutet hav som Östersjön. Den påverkar bland annat havsströmmar, yttemperatur och algblomning. Blandningen orsakas främst av skjuvning från vind- och isstress, buoyancyflöden på grund av avkylning eller avdunstning vid ytan samt skjuvning från interna vågor.Genom att jämföra olika turbulensmodeller har skillnader av förnyelsen av djupvattnet i Östersjön studerats. Till detta har en kopplad tredimensionell fysikalisk-biogeokemisk modell använts. Den grundar sig på Rossby Centre Ocean Model (RCO) och Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI). I havsmodellen har blandningen beräknats med en turbulensmodell av typen k-e. Stabilitetsfunktionerna består av ett Richardsonsberoende Prandtltal. Som jämförelse har samma turbulensmodell använts men med en mer komplex stabilitetsfunktion. Slutligen har även effekterna av ett blandningsschema av typen KPP (K Profil Parametrisation) studerats. Djupvattenomblandningen på grund av interna vågor är parametriserad som en funktion av buoyancyfrekvensen för samtliga turbulensmodeller.Studien visade att KPP modellen simulerar den lägsta blandningen vilket ger ett för tunt väl omblandat ytskikt. k-e modellen med modifierade stabilitetsfunktioner har det lägsta inflödet av saltrikt vatten medan KPP har det högsta inflödet. Den horisontella advektionen av djupvatten in till östra Gotlandsbassängen är högst i den modifierade k-e modellen vilket har störst påverkan för syrenivån.

  • 175.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Marmefelt, Eleonor
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lundholm, Karen
    SMHI.
    HOME Vatten i Norra Östersjöns vattendistrikt: Integrerat modellsystem för vattenkvalitetsberäkningar2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    SMHI har utvecklat ett interaktivt modellsystem för vattenkvalitetberäkningar i mark, sjöar, vattendrag och kustvatten, HOME Vatten. I detta uppdrag har HOME Vatten implementerats i Norra Östersjöns vattendistrikt. De ingående modellerna i HOME Vatten är HBV NP (PLC5- uppsättningen) modellen för mark, sjöar och vattendrag samt Kustzonsmodellen för kustvattnen. Atmosfärsdepositionen både på land och i kustområdet har beräknats av den atmosfärskemiska MATCH-modellen.HOME Vatten har utvecklats för att vara ett verktyg i svensk vattenförvaltning med speciellt fokus på EUs ramdirektiv för vatten.Modelluppsättningarna har validerats mot tillgängliga mätdata, och visar en god överrensstämmelse med data.

  • 176.
    Almroth, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Skogen, Morten
    Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway..
    Sehested Hansen, Ian
    Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway..
    Stipa, Tapani
    FMI.
    Niiranen, Susa
    FMI.
    The Year 2006 An Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak Kattegat and the Baltic Sea: A demonstration Project2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This is the third year joint status report for the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea area (Fig. 1) carried out by SMHI, IMR, DHI and FIMR as a part of the project BANSAI, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group. The aim of the demonstration project is to integrate marine observations and eutrophication model simulations in an annual eutrophication assessment of the Baltic and the North seas. The present report is mainly based on model estimates of some of the indicators suggested by the OSPAR Common Procedure (c.f. Appendix) for the identification of the eutrophication status of the maritime area (OSPAR, 2005). This report serve as a basis for the on-going discussions about the ecological quality indicators included in the assessment, and the way to merge results from different models and observations for the assessment.Estimations of river discharges and model results are used to describe the degree of nutrient enrichment (Category I) defined by the riverine loadings of nitrogen and phosphorus, and winter surface concentrations and ratios of DIN and DIP. The direct effects of nutrient enrichment during the growing season (Category II) are described in terms of the mean and maximum chlorophyll-a concentrations and model estimations of primary production. The ratio between diatoms and flagellates is used as an indicator of region specific phytoplankton indicator species (Category II). The indirect effects of nutrient enrichment (Category III) are discussed in terms of oxygen depletion in bottom waters. Estimations of region specific background concentrations and threshold values are gathered from the literature (Helcom, 2006; OSPAR, 2005) and used for the model assessment. The four model systems used for the joint assessment (Fig. 2) cover different parts of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea area. Detailed descriptions of the models may be found on the web-sites presented below the figure.In section 2 the key messages from this assessment will be presented. In section 3, each country gives a brief observations overview for 2006 and some references to other sources and reports that might be useful for the readers. The methods of the assessment are described in section 4. Statistical characteristics of model results and in-situ data are presented in section 5 and the model assessment of eutrophication status is done in section 6. Conclusions and comments to the assessment are presented in section 7.

  • 177.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Transports and budgets of oxygen and phosphorus in the Baltic sea2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report we present budgets of oxygen and phosphorus for the deeper layers of the Baltic proper. The budgets give calculations of sedimentation, erosion and horizontal and vertical transports based on model simulations. The fluxes of oxygen and phosphorus as well as trends in contents have been computed.

  • 178.
    Cato, Ingemar
    et al.
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Håkansson, Bertil
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hallberg, Ola
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Kjellin, Bernt
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Andersson, Pia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Erlandsson, Cecilia
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    A new approach to state the areas of oxygen deficits in the Baltic Sea2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sediment and near bottom water oxygen data was evaluated to look for correspondence in anoxic conditions. The SGU and SMHI monitoring data showed high correlation, although the actual data tested proved to be few, coincidence in space was promising. The conclusion drawn from the evaluation is that anoxic postglacial sediments were generally overlaid by near bottom anoxic waters. Hence, it is suggested that the spatial distribution of postglacial clays in the sea-bottom surface can be used, together with near bottom waters oxygen data, to improve spatial distribution in mapping oxygen deficits.Time series of oxygen deficit volume and area was calculated from near bottom data from several sub basins in the southern and central Baltic Proper. In general, hypoxic and anoxic water conditions increased over time but perturbations of improved oxygen conditions linked to major inflow events occurs especially in the Bornholm, Eastern and Western Gotland Basins.The high spatial variability of the postglacial sediments in the Western Gotland Basin compared to other basins indicates that it is indeed sensitive to the area coverage of anoxic waters. In addition, the relatively weak stratification and high variability over time of oxygen deficit make this basin favourable for oxygen improvement engineering methods.In coastal waters several bays along the Östergötland and Småland archipelagos should be further evaluated before selected for ecological engineering methods to improve oxygen conditions.

  • 179.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Marmefelt, Eleonor
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Lundholm, Karen
    SMHI.
    HOME Vatten i Bottenhavets vattendistrikt: Integrerat modellsystem för vattenkvalitetsberäkningar2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    SMHI har utvecklat ett interaktivt modellsystem för vattenkvalitetberäkningar i mark, sjöar, vattendrag och kustvatten, HOME Vatten. I detta uppdrag har HOME Vatten implementerats i Bottenhavets vattendistrikt, dvs. i Västerbotten, Jämtland, Västernorrland, Dalarna, Gävleborg och Uppsala län. De ingående modellerna i HOME Vatten är HBV-NP (PLC5-uppsättningen) modellen för mark, sjöar och vattendrag samt Kustzonsmodellen för kustvattnen. Atmosfärsdepositionen både på land och i kustområdet beräknas av den atmosfärskemiska MATCH-modellen. HOME Vatten har utvecklats för att vara ett verktyg i svensk vattenförvaltning med speciellt fokus på EUs ramdirektiv för vatten. Modelluppsättningarna i Västerbotten, Västernorrland och Gävleborg läns kustvatten har validerats mot tillgängliga mätdata, och visar en god överrensstämmelse med data. Key words/sök-, nyckelord HOME Vatten, HBV-NP, PLC5, Kustzonsmodell, integrerat modellsystem, biogeokemisk modell Supplementary notes/Tillägg Number of pages/Antal sidor 48 Language/Språk Svenska ISSN and

  • 180.
    Andersson, Pia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Marine Acidification: On effects and monitoring of marine acidification in the seas surrounding Sweden2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Surface waters in the world oceans have already experienced a pH reduction of about 0.1 units (OSPAR, 2006.) The trend indicates further decrease of pH and is most probably due to increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 and less buffering capacity of ocean waters. The trend is similar in the waters surrounding Sweden.

  • 181.
    Lind, Petter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Temperature and precipitation changes in Sweden; a wide range of model-based projections for the 21st century2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report we analyze the climate change signal for Sweden in scenarios for the 21st century in a large number of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), used in the fourth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We focus on near-surface temperature and precipitation. The analysis includes six emission scenarios as well as multi-member runs with the AOGCMs. At the Rossby Centre, SMHI, regional climate models have been run under different emission scenarios and driven by a few AOGCMs. The results of those runs have been used as a basis in climate change, impact and adaptation assessments. Here, we evaluate results from these regional climate model runs in relation to the climate change signal of the IPCC AOGCMs. First, simulated conditions for the recent past (1961-1990) are evaluated. Generally, most AOGCMs tend to have a cold bias for Sweden, especially in winter that can be as large as 10°C. Also, the coarse resolution of the AOGCMs leads to biases in simulated precipitation, both in averages, extremes and often also in the phase of the seasonal cycle. Generally, AOGCMs overestimate precipitation in winter; biases reach 30-40% or even more. In summer, some AOGCMs overestimate precipitation while others underestimate it. Projected responses depend on season and geographical region. Largest signals are seen in winter and in northern Sweden, where the mean simulated temperature increase among the AOGCMs (and across the emissions scenarios B1, A1B and A2) is nearly 6°C by the end of the century, and precipitation increases by around 25%. In southern Sweden, corresponding values are around +4°C and +11%. In summer, the temperature increase is more moderate, which is also the case for precipitation. The regional climate signals are usually within the ranges given by the AOGCM runs, however, the regional models tends to show larger increases in winter, and smaller increases in summertime precipitation.

  • 182.
    Edman, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Marmefelt, Eleonor
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Lundholm, Karen
    SMHI.
    HOME Vatten i Bottenvikens vattendistrikt: Integrerat modellsystem för vattenkvalitetsberäkningar2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    SMHI har utvecklat ett interaktivt modellsystem för vattenkvalitetberäkningar i mark, sjöar, vattendrag och kustvatten, HOME Vatten. I detta uppdrag har HOME Vatten implementerats i Bottenhavets vattendistrikt, dvs. i Västerbotten, Jämtland, Västernorrland, Dalarna, Gävleborg och Uppsala län. De ingående modellerna i HOME Vatten är HBV-NP (PLC5-uppsättningen) modellen för mark, sjöar och vattendrag samt Kustzonsmodellen för kustvattnen. Atmosfärsdepositionen både på land och i kustområdet beräknas av den atmosfärskemiska MATCH modellen.HOME Vatten har utvecklats för att vara ett verktyg i svensk vattenförvaltning med speciellt fokus på EUs ramdirektiv för vatten.Modelluppsättningarna i Västerbotten, Västernorrland och Gävleborg läns kustvatten har validerats mot tillgängliga mätdata, och visar en god överrensstämmelse med data.

  • 183. Näslund, J-O
    et al.
    Wohlfarth, B
    Alexandersson, H
    Helmens, K
    Hättestrand, M
    Jansson, P
    Kleman, J
    Lundqvist, J
    Brandefelt, J
    Houmark-Nielsen, M
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Knudsen, K.L
    Krog Larsen, N
    Ukkonen, P
    Mangerud, J
    Fennoscandian paleo-environment and ice sheet dynamics during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 32007Report (Other academic)
  • 184. Gode, Jenny
    et al.
    Axelsson, Johan
    Eriksson,, Sara
    Holmgren, Kristina
    Hovsenius, Gunnar
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Larsson, Per
    Lundström, Love
    Persson, Gunn
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tänkbara konsekvenser för energisektorn av klimatförändringar- Effekter, sårbarhet och anpassning2007Report (Other academic)
  • 185. Hovsenius, Gunnar
    et al.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Konsekvenser för vindkraften i Sverige av klimatförändringar2007Report (Other academic)
  • 186.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ruosteenoja, K
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system: A comprehensive report resulting from a Nordic Energy Research project2007Report (Other academic)
  • 187.
    Eliasson, Salomon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Tetzlaff, Anke
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Prototyping an improved PPS cloud detection for the Arctic polar night2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A new Polar Platform Systems (PPS) Cloud Mask (CM) test sequence is required for improving cloud detection during Arctic winter conditions. This study introduces a test sequence, called Ice Night Sea (INS), that to a greater extent successfully detects clouds over ice surfaces and which is less sensitive to cloud free misclassification.The test sequence uses a combination of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) fields and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data. Only the infrared (IR) AVHRR channels can be exploited during night conditions. Training target data from winter 2001-2002, collected over a large area north of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site at Barrow, Alaska, were used to assess the general atmospheric state of the Arctic and to perform a qualitative validation of CM test sequences. Results clearly show that the atmospheric conditions during Arctic winter severely hamper cloud detection efforts. Very cold surface temperatures and immense surface temperature inversions lead to a diminished separability between surfaces and clouds. One particular problem is that the IR brightness temperatures for the shortest wavelength (3.7μm - henceforth T37) are strongly affected by noise. The use of an IR noise filter was shown to improve results significantly. In addition, the problem of misclassifying cracks in the pack ice as Cirrus clouds was basically solved by using a dedicated filter using the local variance of T37.Using an inverse version of a typical daytime Cirrus test (based on just two IR channels and normally applied successfully outside the Arctic region), it is shown that we can detect a substantial part of the warmsemi-transparent clouds commonly found in the Arctic. Running the test sequences on training target data revealed an improvement in correct cloud free target classification of around 30% but only a marginal improvement for cloudy training targets. However, visual inspection of results obtained for about 50 scenes covering a large part of the Arctic region in January 2007 clearly indicated improvements also for the cloudy portion of the scenes. The INS CM test sequence awaits a more rigorous and quantitative validation, e.g. based on comparisons with CLOUDSAT/CALIPSO satellite data sets.

  • 188.
    Jansson, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Christer
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    2D meso-scale re-analysis of precipitation, temperature and wind over Europe - ERAMESAN: Time period 1980-20042007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The need for long time series of gridded meteorological data with a fine spatial and temporal resolution has increased in recent years. The requirements for this type of gridded meteorological data fields arise from many different areas of the society, in connection to atmospheric environment studies of air quality and deposition and trends in these parameters, regional climate change, wind energy, hydrological studies etc. The aim of the present project is to investigate the possibility of producing historical, high quality and time consistent, meso-scale re analyses for the whole of Europe regarding precipitation, 2 m temperature and wind for at least 25 years back in time.The MESAN analysis system (Häggmark et al., 2000) at SMHI was chosen as a basis for the reanalysis and the system was adjusted to cover the whole of Europe. In order to find the most appropriate first guess fields to be used in the MESAN system, a pilot study was performed. ERA- 40 data from ECMWF was selected as best possible first guess fields for the re analysis. The performed re-analysis, which is denoted ERAMESAN, includes gridded data covering all Europe with a time resolution of 6 h and a spatial resolution of 0.1º (11 km) in a rotated latitude longitude coordinate system for the time-period 1980-2004. All analyses are archived in GRIB-format and stored on disc at SMHI. The dataset is also available within the EUMETNET optional programme Showcase EUROGRID.A partial validation for the years 1998-2000, using a cross validation procedure with independent observations (5.5% of the total amount of stations), shows an improvement in ERAMESAN compared to the ERA-40 data for all studied parameters with regard to root mean square deviation, mean absolute deviation and mean bias deviation for all seasons. The deviations are roughly of the order of 15% smaller compared to what is obtained from ERA-40. The frequency distribution of large precipitation amounts per day and high wind speeds are substantially better described in ERAMESAN compared to ERA-40. However, the tendency to underestimate the frequency of very large precipitation amounts or high wind speeds, compared to observations, can be seen also for ERAMESAN. It is important to be aware of this limitation when using ERAMESAN data for practical applications concerning evaluation of risks for extreme wind speeds or very large precipitation amounts or in e.g. wind energy studies.

  • 189.
    Johnston, Sheldon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    METEOSAT 8 SEVIRI and NOAA AVHRR Cloud Products: A Climate Monitoring SAF2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The goals of this study are to compare the MSG SEVIRI and PPS AVHRR monthly mean cloud products of the CM-SAF. The study was done in two parts: first comparing the cloud mask products and then comparing the cloud top temperature and height products. This was done over a region from Greenland to eastern Russia and as far south as the Sahara. The study covered four seasonally-representative months. For the cloud mask using PPS version 1.0, the results showed large problems over the Sahara and parts of Spain during the summer months. This was primarily due to the high reflectances in channel 3a and mostprominent with NOAA 17.Much larger differences were found over water than over land surfaces, with the exception of Scandinavia where the differences were comparable to those found over water. The cloud-contaminated values were removed in one plot and this revealed that PPS had a larger number of cloud-contaminated pixels than MSG. This agrees with the concept that MSG reports increased cloudiness at higher viewing angles. This also explains why the differences over Scandinavia were so large and positive in value. The NOAA images at high latitudes have better spatial resolution and reports fewer cloudy and cloud-contaminated pixels than MSG.Sub-pixel and thin clouds greatly affected how well the two products converged. An attempt to use a weighted factor to adjust the effect of cloud-contaminated pixels on the total cloud cover failed to improve the convergence between the two cloud masks. The effect of the MSG viewing angle and the subsequent effects of reporting more cloudy pixels (or cloud-contaminated pixel – to include thin clouds) could be seen throughout all four months in the form of larger positive differences at latitudes approaching 80 degrees. Significant changes were seen with results from the PPS version 1.1. A significant decrease in the difference over the Sahara was the most discernable change. On the other hand, for NOAA 17, the agreement with MSG during twilight conditions was reduced by almost one half. The comparison of the cloud top temperature and height products revealed that MSG reported more low clouds during the summer months than PPS. This was mostly like due to the presence of convective clouds and the angle at which they are viewed (small cumulus clouds when viewed from nadir has a smaller diameter than when viewed slantwise).

  • 190.
    Funquist, Lennart
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eckhard, Kleine
    SMHI.
    An introduction to HIROMB, an operational baroclinic model for the Baltic Sea2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A3-dimensional baroclinic model of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, designed for a daily operational use is described in detail. The model is based on a similar model running in operational mode at the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) in Hamburg, Germany. The operational forecasts started in 1995 with a daily 24-hour forecast and was later extended to 48 hours. The model is mainly forced by SMHI's operational atmospheric model (HIRLAM), but also by river runoff from an operational hydrological model and wave radition stress from a wind wave model. The present version of the model is set up on a nested grid where a 12 nautical mile (nm) grid covers the whole area while Skagerrak, Kattegat, the Belt Sea and the Baltic Sea are covered with a 1 nm grid. A parallelized version of the model has been developed and runs on a distributed memory parallel computer.

  • 191.
    Håkansson, Bertil
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindahl, Odd
    Kristineberg Marine Research Station.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    SMHI.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Swedish National Report on Eutrophication Status in the Kattegat and the Skagerrak: OSPAR ASSESSMENT 20072007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The surface area of the Kattegat and the Skagerrak, located in the eastern North Sea, is about 22 000 km2 and 32 000 km2, and the mean depth is about 23 m and 210 m, respectively. The Skagerrak and the Kattegat forms the inner end of the Norwegian trench, which has the characteristics of a deep (700 m) fjord connecting the Baltic Sea with theNorwegian Sea (e.g. Rodhe, 1987). The sill depth of the fjord is about 270 m. The Kattegat offshore and inshore waters were identified as problem areas, whereas the Inshore Skagerrak waters the OSPAR categories I - IV indicate a slight incoherence in the assessment, although with an overalljudgement to be identifi ed as a problem area. The offshore Skagerrak was identified as a non problem area, according to the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. (OSPAR Commission, 2005).

  • 192.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    HBV-NP Model Manual2007Report (Other academic)
  • 193.
    Karlson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Rehnstam-Holm, Ann-Sofi
    Göteborg University, Clinical Bacteriology, Institution of Laboratory Medicine, SE-413 46 Gothenburg, Sweden & Kristianstad University, Institution of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, SE-29188 Kristianstad, Sweden..
    Loo, Lars-Ove
    Department of Marine Ecology, Göteborg University, Tjärnö Marine Biological Laboratory, SE-452 96 Strömstad, Sweden..
    Temporal and spatial distribution of diarrhetic shellfish toxins in blue mussels, Mytilus edulis (L.), at the Swedish West Coast, NE Atlantic, years 1988-20052007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The main goal of this report is to compile and present available data on algal toxins in blue mussels from the west coast of Sweden. The hazards associated with the consumption of mussels are mostly dependent on the occurrence and composition of toxic algae in the areas where shellfish are grown. Diarrhetic shellfish toxins (DST), i.e. okadaic acid (OA) and dinophysistoxin-1 (DTX-1) have occurred regularly in blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) at the Swedish west coast (i.e. Skagerrak) during the past years. A maximum residue limit of 160 µg.kg-1 mussel meat has been set by National Food Administration. The toxic incidences in the region has been linked to the occurrence of Dinophysis acuminata and D. acuta. In general there is seasonal variation of DST in mussels with low concentrations from March to August (160 µg.kg-1 mussel meat). Peaks above the maximum residue limit have in some years also occurred in late June to late July. Rapid intoxication vs. slow detoxification of mussels is a common phenomenon, especially in autumn-winter. Temporal and regional differences are large. There is also a considerable variation in toxin levels between years. In 1994 almost 5000 µg DST.kg-1 mussel meat was detected. In 1997 mussel farmers experienced very low levels, i.e. only three samples above the restriction limit of DST. In autumn 1989 to spring 1990 and in early autumn 2000 to early 2001, high levels (about 200 to 2000 µg DTX.kg-1 mussel meat) were recorded during 26 weeks. The Koljö Fjord region had low levels of toxins until 1998, despite regular recordings of potentially DST producing algae in the area. Today mussels grown and harvested in this area have similar toxin levels to mussels from other fjords in the Skagerrak region. Measurements of other toxins than DST are few and are not included in the report. Målet med denna rapport är att sammanställa och presentera tillgängliga data med algtoxiner i blåmusslor från svenska västkusten. Risken att bli förgiftad av algtoxiner via musslor hänger samman med förekomst och sammansättning av toxiska alger i det vatten där musslorna växer. Diarréframkallande ämnen (diarrheic shellfish toxins), t.ex. okadasyra (OA) och dinophysistoxin-1 (DTX-1) har förkommit regelbundet i blåmusslor (Mytilus edulis) längs svenska västkusten (Skagerack) de senaste tjugofyra åren. Ett gränsvärde på 160 µg.kg-1 musselkött är fastställt av livmedelsverket. Toxinförekomsten i regionen associeras till förekomsten av Dinophysis acuminata och D. acuta. "Normalt" är det en säsongsvariation av DST i musslor med låga koncentrationer från mars till augusti (<160 µg.kg-1 musselkött) och höga från oktober till december (>160 µg.kg-1 musselkött). Toppar över gränsvärdet för konsumtion har vissa år förekommit från slutet av juni till slutet av juli. En snabb ökning i toxinhalt respektive långsam minskning är också ett vanligt förekommande fenomen, speciellt under höst-vinter. Tidsmässiga och regionala skillnader är stora. Det är också en stor skillnad i toxinhalt mellan åren. 1994 uppmättes den högsta toxinhalten till nästan 5000 µg DST.kg-1 musselkött. Under 1997 var halterna låga under hela säsongen, endast vid tre tillfällen var halterna över gränsvärdet. Från hösten 1989 till våren 1990 och från tidig höst 2000 till tidig vår 2001 uppmättes höga halter (ca 200 to 2000 µg DTX.kg-1 musselkött) under 26 veckor i en följd. I Koljöfjorden var det låga halter av toxiner fram till år 1998, trots förekomst av potentiellt DST producerande alger i området. I dag har musslor som växer och skördas i detta område ungefär samma nivåer av toxin som från andra områden. Mätningar av andra algtoxiner än DST är fåtaliga och tas inte upp i rapporten.

  • 194.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Beräknade temperaturförhållanden för tre platser i Sverige – perioderna 1961-1990 och 2011-20402007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Under hösten 2006 utförde Rossby Centre ett omfattande arbete för att till olika sektorer i samhället ta fram underlagsmaterial om klimatets utveckling. Beställare var framförallt Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningens olika arbetsgrupper men också energibranschen. Föreliggande rapport beskriver en delleverans till Elforsk-projektet ”Tänkbara konsekvenser för den svenska energisektorn av klimatförändringar – effekter, sårbarhet och anpassning”. Material togs fram som belyser en möjlig temperaturutveckling i ett relativt kort framtidsperspektiv representerat av perioden 2011-2040. Det fanns önskemål om att särskilt titta på utvecklingen för tre platser med olika klimat i ett nord-sydligt perspektiv och med närhet till större befolkningsgrupper.Analyserna inom projektet har finansierats av Elforsk. Modellsimuleringarna har gjorts på den dedikerade klimatdatorresursen ”Tornado” vid Nationellt Superdatorcentrum, Linköpings universitet. Tornado finansieras av Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse.I denna rapport presenteras materialet avseende de tre platserna kompletterat med ett litet urval kartor som visar några temperaturindex. Ett mycket omfattande kartmaterial finns att tillgå på Rossby Centrets hemsida som nås via www.smhi.se.

  • 195.
    Omstedt, Gunnar
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    VEDAIR - ett internetverktyg för bedömning av luftkvalitet vid småskalig biobränsleeldning: Modellbeskrivning och slutrapport mars 20072007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report describes a new internet tool for evaluation of air quality in residential areas with small scale wood-combustion. The work has been sponsored by the Swedish Energy Agency and the internet tool is called VEDAIR. The background is a four-year’s research program (2001-2004) called Biomass Combustion Health and Environment. Some conclusions from this program were that emissions from small scale wood-combustion can influence human health manly due to high emitting old wood stoves during cold whether conditions and that the air quality in such areas can improve significantly if old wood stoves were replaced by modern woodboilers attached to a storage tank or with a pellet boiler.

  • 196.
    Andréasson, Johan
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Översiktlig kartpresentation av klimatförändringars påverkan på Sveriges vattentillgång.: Summary of climate change maps of the Swedish water resources - Background material for the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. Underlag till Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen.2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report summarizes the water resource maps of changes in mean annual runoff, large floods and hydropower potential that have been delivered to the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. The hydrological model simulations that have been used to produce the maps were done using the HBV Sweden modelling system. Simulations for present climate used observed input of precipitation and temperature from 1961-1990. Calculations of future hydrological conditions were based on results from regional climate modelling at the Rossby Centre, SMHI. Five different regional scenarios of future climate have been used, four representing the future period 2071-2100 and one for the whole period 1961-2100. Two different approaches to interface the hydrological model and the climate models have been used, the delta method and the scaling method. The mean annual runoff will, according to the scenarios, increase for most parts of Sweden except for the south-east parts of the country. The picture becomes more complex when it comes to changes in large floods, but they are expected to increase substantially in the south-west parts and in the Swedish mountains according to the scenarios. The total Swedish hydropower potential is expected to increase substantially according to the scenarios. All results from HBV Sweden should only be used for a general interpretation of where more in depth analyses might be of interest. The simulations based on the so-called scaling method are more preliminary than the other simulations, since the method is still under development.

  • 197.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kväveretention i svenska sjöar och vattendrag – betydelse för utsläpp från reningsverk2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report has been compiled on request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency to facilitate the discussion with the EU Commission. The EU Commission has announced that it will take Sweden to the European Court of Justice for failing to ensure proper treatment of urban waste water according to the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (Directive 91/271/EEC). In Sweden natural nitrogen removal (retention) in waterbodies is considered as part of the treatment of emissions, when transported to the sea. Nitrogen retention is a well-known phenomenon that includes several natural biogeochemical processes, which permanently remove nitrogen from the water. The effect may be considerable in areas with many lakes. Sweden has 92 000 lakes larger than 1 hectare. It is rather normal with 30-70% nitrogen retention in Swedish lakes and rivers. The main process for natural nitrogen retention is denitrification, which is the same process that is applied for biological treatment in waste water plants. Natural retention is hard to measure, however, and has to be estimated based on several assumptions like so many other fluxes in nature. In Sweden a model system has been developed for large-scale calculation of nutrient transport, including retention, from land to the sea, with relatively high geographic resolution. The system couples field-scale models with catchment models and is scientifically documented and reviewed. It has been applied since 1997 for international reporting to HELCOM. The catchment model (HBVNP) is tuned and evaluated against monitored time-series of measurements where such are available. The nitrogen retention that is calculated with HBV-NP is composed of nitrogen that is permanently transferred to the atmosphere and sediment, and which therefore will not further contribute to the eutrophication of water systems.

  • 198.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Andersén, Markus
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Jonsson, Christer
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Eklund, Dan
    SMHI.
    Hydraulik i Klarälvens torrfåra vid tappningar från Höljes kraftverksdamm2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    SMHI har i uppdrag från Länsstyrelsen Värmland genomfört hydrauliska mätningar i Klarälvens torrfåra vid provtappningar från Höljes kraftverksdamm. Tre olika flödesnivåer provtappades under perioden 11-15 november 2007. Projektet är ett led i arbetet med miljökvalitetsmålet Levande sjöar och vattendrag samt Ramdirektivet för vatten. Syftet är bl.a. att utreda möjligheterna till naturlig reproduktion av vänervandrande klarälvslax, öring, harr och andra vattenlevande organismer. Torrfåran mäter ca 6 km från dammen till platsen där kraftverksutloppet och den naturliga älvfåran möts.De mätningar som genomfördes syftade till att bestämma flöden, vattenstånd, gradienter, djup, strömhastigheter, rinntider, vattendragsbredder, och den våta arean vid olika mätpunkter utmed undersökningssträckan. Samtliga uppmätta parametrar är flödesberoende. En enkel empirisk modell presenteras vilken gör det möjligt att beräkna hur en förändrad tappning påverkar genomsnittliga värden av strömhastighet, bredd och djup i sträckan.Resultaten visar bland annat att vattnets medelhastighet ökar snabbare än medelbredd och medeldjup då flödet från dammen ökar. När flödet ökar från 2,5 m³/s till 7,5 m³/s (+200%) ökar medelhastigheten från 0,28 m/s till 0,52 m/s (+88%), medelbredden från 33 m till 43 m (+31%), och medeldjupet från 0,28 m till 0,34 m (+22%). Förändringarna på den nedre delsträckan är likartade. Vid medellågvattenföring i Höljan och samma flödesökning som ovan från dammen så stiger den totala våta arean från 21 ha till 26 ha (+27%).

  • 199.
    Granström, Carl
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Häggström, Martin
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindell, Sten
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Olofsson, Judith
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Eklund, Anna
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Utvärdering av SMHIs hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänst under höga flöden i Götaland - juni och juli 20072007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Detta är en utvärdering av SMHI:s hydrologiska prognos och varningstjänsts arbete 26 juni till 20 juli 2007 med flödessituationen i sydvästra Sverige. I dokumentet beskrivs även den hydrologiska situationen för den aktuella tiden.Det höga flödet uppkom på grund av intensivt regnande i slutet på juni. På en del platser föll över 100 mm på ett dygn. Fortsatt regnande gjorde det som i början av juni såg ut som en torr sommar till en blöt sommar med höga flöden och översvämningar. Med hjälp av observationer i realtid, meteorologiska prognoser, hydrologiska, prognoser, visualiseringsverktyg och ett nära samarbete med kraftbolagen är SMHI:s hydrologiska prognos och varningstjänst kontinuerligt uppdaterad på det hydrologiska läget i hela Sverige. När sannolikheten bedöms vara större än 50 % för att en varningsnivå överskrids skall en varning utfärdas. Under mycket höga flöden skall SMHI också stötta länsstyrelse och räddningstjänst med meteorologisk och hydrologisk expertis samt med specialanpassade prognoser.SMHI gör dagligen automatiska prognoser för över 80 st utvalda avrinningsområden i Sverige. Under det aktuella flödet utfördes ett antal manuella specialanpassade prognoser med högre kvalitet för det drabbade området. Generellt var prognoserna av medelgod kvalité. Under flödet arbetade SMHI ca 650 arbetstimmar utöver det som är normalt för perioden för varningstjänst.SMHI har under perioden skickat ut 17 flödesvarningar och 4 hydrologiska informationer. Träffsäkerheten i årets hydrologiska varningar utvärderas i november varje år och ingår därför inte i denna rapport.Efter flödessituationen skickades en enkät ut till de kommuner, länsstyrelser och kraftbolag som berördes av varningarna. Enkäten avsåg perioden juni-juli 2007.En sammanställning av enkätsvaren och samtliga kommentarer redovisas i denna rapport. Det övergripande omdömet om SMHI:s tjänster var positivt.

  • 200.
    Jansson, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Josefsson, Weine
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Modelling of surface global radiation and CIE-weighted UV-radiation for the period 1980-20002007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents the procedure for creation of surface global radiation and CIE-weighted UVradiation for the years 1980-2000. The work was ordered by the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority (SSI) on behalf of “Miljömålsrådet”. The created data covers a large geographical areaover northwest Europe with a fine spatial (22x22 km) and temporal resolution (1 hour).The input data are selected from the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3), ERA-40 (www.ecmwf.int/research/era) and observations.For the creation of CIE-weighted UV-radiation, a clear sky model was first used and then a cloud modification model that reduces the clear sky radiation dependent on the cloud amount from theRCA3 model.The report also includes a validation of the modelled CIE-weighted UV-radiation against independent observations. The root mean square deviation is for daily values about 38%, for monthly values, 13% and for yearly values 7%. Also a small bias toward higher modelled UVcompared to observations exists in the data set.For the creation of global radiation, the data has been selected from the RCA3 model with a correction made depended on the sun height. Also for the global radiation the validation results are presented in the report. The root mean square deviation is in the same order as for the modelledCIE-weighted UV-radiation, also here a small bias toward higher modelled values exist, but smaller then for the modelled CIE-weighted UV-radiation.All CIE-weighted UV-radiation and global radiation created in this project are freely available for non-commercial usage at the web-interface, www.smhi.se/strang/omna. Here charts, fields and time series can be selected for hourly, daily, monthly and yearly values.

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