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  • 13. Hazeleger, W.
    et al.
    Guemas, V.
    Wouters, B.
    Corti, S.
    Andreu-Burillo, I.
    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies2013Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, nr 9, s. 1794-1798Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Multiyear climate predictions with two initialization strategies are systematically assessed in the EC-Earth V2.3 climate model. In one ensemble, an estimate of the observed climate state is used to initialize the model. The other uses estimates of observed ocean and sea ice anomalies on top of the model climatology. The ensembles show similar spatial characteristics of drift related to the biases in control simulations. As expected, the drift is less with anomaly initialization. The full field initialization overshoots to a colder state which is related to cold biases in the tropics and North Atlantic, associated with oceanic processes. Despite different amplitude of the drift, both ensembles show similar skill in multiyear global temperature predictions, but regionally differences are found. On multiyear time scales, initialization with observations enhances both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores in the North Atlantic. The probabilistic verification shows skill over the European continent.

  • 14. Smith, Doug M.
    et al.
    Scaife, Adam A.
    Boer, George J.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
    Guemas, Virginie
    Hawkins, Ed
    Hazeleger, Wilco
    Hermanson, Leon
    Ho, Chun Kit
    Ishii, Masayoshi
    Kharin, Viatcheslav
    Kimoto, Masahide
    Kirtman, Ben
    Lean, Judith
    Matei, Daniela
    Merryfield, William J.
    Mueller, Wolfgang A.
    Pohlmann, Holger
    Rosati, Anthony
    Wouters, Bert
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions2013Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 41, nr 11-12, s. 2875-2888Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Nia in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Nia. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Nio3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 A degrees C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

  • 15. Hazeleger, W.
    et al.
    Wang, X.
    Severijns, C.
    Stefanescu, S.
    Bintanja, R.
    Sterl, A.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Semmler, T.
    Yang, S.
    van den Hurk, B.
    van Noije, T.
    van der Linden, E.
    van der Wiel, K.
    EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model2012Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, nr 11, s. 2611-2629Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    EC-Earth, a new Earth system model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is presented. The performance of version 2.2 (V2.2) of the model is compared to observations, reanalysis data and other coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice models. The large-scale physical characteristics of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice are well simulated. When compared to other coupled models with similar complexity, the model performs well in simulating tropospheric fields and dynamic variables, and performs less in simulating surface temperature and fluxes. The surface temperatures are too cold, with the exception of the Southern Ocean region and parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The main patterns of interannual climate variability are well represented. Experiments with enhanced CO2 concentrations show well-known responses of Arctic amplification, land-sea contrasts, tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. The global climate sensitivity of the current version of EC-Earth is slightly less than 1 K/(W m(-2)). An intensification of the hydrological cycle is found and strong regional changes in precipitation, affecting monsoon characteristics. The results show that a coupled model based on an operational seasonal prediction system can be used for climate studies, supporting emerging seamless prediction strategies.

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