Endre søk
Begrens søket
123 101 - 139 of 139
RefereraExporteraLink til resultatlisten
Permanent link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Treff pr side
  • 5
  • 10
  • 20
  • 50
  • 100
  • 250
Sortering
  • Standard (Relevans)
  • Forfatter A-Ø
  • Forfatter Ø-A
  • Tittel A-Ø
  • Tittel Ø-A
  • Type publikasjon A-Ø
  • Type publikasjon Ø-A
  • Eldste først
  • Nyeste først
  • Skapad (Eldste først)
  • Skapad (Nyeste først)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Eldste først)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Nyeste først)
  • Disputationsdatum (tidligste først)
  • Disputationsdatum (siste først)
  • Standard (Relevans)
  • Forfatter A-Ø
  • Forfatter Ø-A
  • Tittel A-Ø
  • Tittel Ø-A
  • Type publikasjon A-Ø
  • Type publikasjon Ø-A
  • Eldste først
  • Nyeste først
  • Skapad (Eldste først)
  • Skapad (Nyeste først)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Eldste først)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Nyeste først)
  • Disputationsdatum (tidligste først)
  • Disputationsdatum (siste først)
Merk
Maxantalet träffar du kan exportera från sökgränssnittet är 250. Vid större uttag använd dig av utsökningar.
  • 101.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea2017Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 49, nr 1-2, s. 163-172Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 102.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kauker, F
    Modeling decadal variability of the Baltic Sea: 2. Role of freshwater inflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation for salinity2003Inngår i: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 108, nr C11, artikkel-id 3368Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Hindcast simulations for the period 1902 - 1998 have been performed using a three-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Daily sea level observations in Kattegat, monthly basin-wide discharge data, and reconstructed atmospheric surface data have been used to force the Baltic Sea model. The reconstruction utilizes a statistical model to calculate daily sea level pressure and monthly surface air temperature, dew point temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover fields. Sensitivity experiments have been performed to explore the impact of the freshwater and saltwater inflow variability on the salinity of the Baltic Sea. The decadal variability of the average salinity is explained partly by decadal volume variations of the accumulated freshwater inflow from river runoff and net precipitation and partly by decadal variations of the large-scale sea level pressure over Scandinavia. During the last century two exceptionally long stagnation periods are found, the 1920s to 1930s and the 1980s to 1990s. During these periods, precipitation, runoff, and westerly winds were stronger, and salt transports into the Baltic were smaller than normal. As the response timescale on freshwater forcing of the Baltic Sea is about 35 years, seasonal and year-to-year changes of the freshwater inflow are too short to affect the average salinity significantly. We found that the impact of river regulation, which changes the discharge seasonality, is negligible.

  • 103.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kauker, F
    Sensitivity of the Baltic Sea salinity to the freshwater supply2003Inngår i: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 24, nr 3, s. 231-242Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea salinity to the freshwater supply is investigated using a 3-dimensional (3D) coupled sea-ice-ocean model. Today's climate is characterized by an average salinity of about 7.4 parts per thousand. and a freshwater supply, including river runoff and net precipitation, of about 16 000 m(3) s(-1). As recent results of some regional climate models have suggested a significant increase in precipitation in the Baltic catchment area due to anthropogenic climate change, in this study the response of salinity in the Baltic Sea to changing freshwater inflow is investigated. Of special interest is the possibility of the Baltic Sea becoming a freshwater sea with 0 parts per thousand salinity in the future. Therefore, model simulations with modified river runoff and precipitation for 1902-1998 were performed. The model is forced with daily sea-level observations in the Kattegat, monthly basin-wide discharge data, and reconstructed atmospheric surface data. The reconstruction utilizes a statistical model to calculate daily sea-level pressure, and monthly surface-air temperature, dew-point temperature, precipitation, and cloud-cover fields. It is assumed that the Kattegat deepwater salinity of about 33 parts per thousand. will not change regardless of the changed freshwater supply. In most of the experiments the final stratification is almost in a steady state after 100 yr. We found that even for a freshwater supply increased by 100% compared to 1902-1998 the Baltic Sea cannot be classified as a freshwater sea. A pronounced halocline still separates the upper and lower layers in the Baltic Proper, limiting the impact of direct wind mixing to the surface layer. A calculated phase diagram suggests that the relationship between freshwater supply and average salinity of the final steady state is non-linear. The results of the 3D model are in agreement with an analytical steady-state model assumed to work for freshwater changes smaller than 30 %. The latter model was applied in scenarios for the average salinity of the Baltic Sea.

  • 104.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Kauker, Frank
    Simulating Baltic Sea climate for the period 1902-1998 with the Rossby Centre coupled ice-ocean model2000Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 105.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kauker, Frank
    What Causes Stagnation of the Baltic Sea Deepwater?2004Inngår i: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, s. 172-173Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 106.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century2006Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 33, nr 15, artikkel-id L15705Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    As the uncertainty of projected precipitation and wind changes in regional climate change scenario simulations over Europe for the late 21st century is large, we applied a multi-model ensemble approach using 16 scenario simulations based upon seven regional models, five global models, and two emission scenarios to gain confidence in projected salinity changes in the Baltic Sea. In the dynamical downscaling approach a regional ocean circulation model and a large-scale hydrological model for the entire Baltic Sea catchment area were used. Despite the uncertainties, mainly caused by global model biases, salinity changes in all projections are either negative or not statistically significant in terms of natural variability.

  • 107.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ranjbar, Zohreh
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study2012Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 558-573Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

  • 108.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Vaeli, Germo
    Naumann, Michael
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Recently Accelerated Oxygen Consumption Rates Amplify Deoxygenation in the Baltic Sea2018Inngår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 123, nr 5, s. 3227-3240Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 109. Neumann, Thomas
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate2012Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 574-585Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

  • 110. Niiranen, Susa
    et al.
    Yletyinen, Johanna
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Hjerne, Olle
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web2013Inngår i: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 19, nr 11, s. 3327-3342Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

  • 111. Omstedt, A.
    et al.
    Elken, J.
    Lehmann, A.
    Lepparanta, M.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Myrberg, K.
    Rutgersson, A.
    Progress in physical oceanography of the Baltic Sea during the 2003-2014 period2014Inngår i: Progress in Oceanography, ISSN 0079-6611, E-ISSN 1873-4472, Vol. 128, s. 139-171Artikkel, forskningsoversikt (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    We review progress in Baltic Sea physical oceanography (including sea ice and atmosphere-land interactions) and Baltic Sea modelling, focusing on research related to BALTEX Phase II and other relevant work during the 2003-2014 period. The major advances achieved in this period are: Meteorological databases are now available to the research community, partly as station data, with a growing number of freely available gridded datasets on decadal and centennial time scales. The free availability of meteorological datasets supports the development of more accurate forcing functions for Baltic Sea models. In the last decade, oceanographic data have become much more accessible and new important measurement platforms, such as FerryBoxes and satellites, have provided better temporally and spatially resolved observations. Our understanding of how large-scale atmospheric circulation affects the Baltic Sea climate, particularly in winter, has improved. Internal variability is strong illustrating the dominant stochastic behaviour of the atmosphere. The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are better understood. The importance of surface waves in air-sea interaction is better understood, and Stokes drift and Langmuir circulation have been identified as likely playing an important role in surface water mixing in sea water. We better understand sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the coastal zone where sea ice interaction between land and sea is crucial. The Baltic Sea's various straits and sills are of increasing interest in seeking to understand water exchange and mixing. There has been increased research into the Baltic Sea coastal zone, particularly into upwelling, in the past decade. Modelling of the Baltic Sea-North Sea system, including the development of coupled land-sea-atmosphere models, has improved. Despite marked progress in Baltic Sea research over the last decade, several gaps remain in our knowledge and understanding. The current understanding of salinity changes is limited, and future projections of salinity evolution are uncertain. In addition, modelling of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric climate models is severely biased. More detailed investigations of regional precipitation and evaporation patterns (including runoff), atmospheric variability, highly saline water inflows, exchange between sub-basins, circulation, and especially turbulent mixing are still needed. Furthermore, more highly resolved oceanographic models are necessary. In addition, models that incorporate more advanced carbon cycle and ecosystem descriptions and improved description of water-sediment interactions are needed. There is also a need for new climate projections and simulations with improved atmospheric and oceanographic coupled model systems. These and other research challenges are addressed by the recently formed Baltic Earth research programme, the successor of the BALTEX programme, which ended in 2013. Baltic Earth will treat anthropogenic changes and impacts together with their natural drivers. Baltic Earth will serve as a network for earth system sciences in the region, following in the BALTEX tradition but in a wider context. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  • 112.
    Pemberton, Per
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Nilsson, Johan
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arctic Ocean Water Mass Transformation in S-T Coordinates2015Inngår i: Journal of Physical Oceanography, ISSN 0022-3670, E-ISSN 1520-0485, Vol. 45, nr 4, s. 1025-1050Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, watermass transformations in the Arctic Ocean are studied using a recently developed salinity-temperature (S-T) framework. The framework allows the water mass transformations to be succinctly quantified by computing the surface and internal diffusive fluxes in S-T coordinates. This study shows how the method can be applied to a specific oceanic region, in this case the Arctic Ocean, by including the advective exchange of water masses across the boundaries of the region. Based on a simulation with a global ocean circulation model, the authors examine the importance of various parameterized mixing processes and surface fluxes for the transformation of water across isohaline and isothermal surfaces in the ArcticOcean. The model-based results reveal a broadly realistic Arctic Ocean where the inflowing Atlantic and Pacific waters are primarily cooled and freshened before exiting back to the North Atlantic. In the model, the water mass transformation in the T direction is primarily accomplished by the surface heat flux. However, the surface freshwater flux plays a minor role in the transformation of water toward lower salinities, which is mainly driven by a downgradient mixing of salt in the interior ocean. Near the freezing line, the seasonal melt and growth of sea ice influences the transformation pattern.

  • 113.
    Pemberton, Per
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Nilsson, Johan
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arctic Ocean freshwater composition, pathways and transformations from a passive tracer simulation2014Inngår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 66Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Freshwater (FW) induced transformations in the upper Arctic Ocean were studied using a coupled regional sea ice-ocean model driven by winds and thermodynamic forcing from a reanalysis of data during the period 1948-2011, focusing on the mean state during 1968-2011. Using passive tracers to mark a number of FW sources and sinks, their mean composition, pathways and export were examined. The distribution of the simulated FW height reproduced the known features of the Arctic Ocean and volume-integrated FW content matched climatological estimates reasonably well. Input from Eurasian rivers and extraction by sea-ice formation dominate the composition of the Arctic FW content whilst Pacific water increases in importance in the Canadian Basin. Though pathways generally agreed with previous studies the locus of the Eurasian runoff shelf-basin transport centred at the Alpha-Mendeleyev ridge, shifting the Pacific-Atlantic front eastwards. A strong coupling between tracers representing Eurasian runoff and sea-ice formation showed how water modified on the shelf spreads across the Arctic and mainly exits through the Fram Strait. Transformation to salinity dependent coordinates showed how Atlantic water is modified by both low-salinity shelf and Pacific waters in an estuary-like overturning producing water masses of intermediate salinity that are exported to the Nordic Seas. A total halocline renewal rate of 1.0 Sv, including both shelf-basin exchange and cross-isohaline flux, was estimated from the transports: both components were of equal magnitude. The model's halocline shelf-basin exchange is dominated by runoff and sea-ice processes at the western shelves (the Barents and Kara seas) and Pacific water at the eastern shelves (the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seas).

  • 114.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Andréasson, Johan
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of Climate Change Effects on Sea-Level Rise in Combination with an Altered River Flow in the Lake Mälar Region: Conference Proceedings2004Inngår i: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, 2004, s. 172-173Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 115. Placke, Manja
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Graewe, Ulf
    Neumann, Thomas
    Frauen, Claudia
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Long-Term Mean Circulation of the Baltic Sea as Represented by Various Ocean Circulation Models2018Inngår i: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 5, artikkel-id UNSP 287Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 116. Reckermann, Marcus
    et al.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Omstedt, Anders
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    von Storch, Hans
    Keevallik, Sirje
    Schneider, Bernd
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Huenicke, Birgit
    BALTEX-an interdisciplinary research network for the Baltic Sea region2011Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, nr 4, artikkel-id 045205Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    BALTEX is an environmental research network dealing with the Earth system of the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin. Important elements include the water and energy cycle, climate variability and change, water management and extreme events, and related impacts on biogeochemical cycles. BALTEX was founded in 1993 as a GEWEX continental-scale experiment and is currently in its second 10 yr phase. Phase I (1993-2002) was primarily dedicated to hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic processes in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, hence mostly dealt with the physical aspects of the system. Scientific focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the Baltic Sea and the surface of its catchment. The BALTEX study area was hydrologically defined as the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The second 10 yr phase of BALTEX (Phase II: 2003-12) has strengthened regional climate research, water management issues, biogeochemical cycles and overarching efforts to reach out to stakeholders and decision makers, as well as to foster communication and education. Achievements of BALTEX Phase II have been the establishment of an assessment report of regional climate change and its impacts on the Baltic Sea basin (from hydrological to biological and socio-economic), the further development of regional physical climate models and the integration of biogeochemical and ecosystem models. BALTEX features a strong infrastructure, with an international secretariat and a publication series, and organizes various workshops and conferences. This article gives an overview of the BALTEX programme, with an emphasis on Phase II, with some examples from BALTEX-related research.

  • 117.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    PRUDENCE-related regional climate modeling at the SMHI/Rossby Centre2002Inngår i: PRUDENCE kick-off meeting / [ed] Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Danish Climate Centre DMI, Ministry of Transport , 2002, s. 40-41Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 118.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, U
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios2004Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 22, nr 1, s. 13-31Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A basic analysis is presented for a series of regional climate change simulations that were conducted by the Swedish Rossby Centre and contribute to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) project. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, a 30-year control run and two 30-year scenario runs (based on the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) were made with the regional model. In this way, four realizations of climate change from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 were obtained. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario (although with few qualitative differences) and in most cases in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-driven (RE) than in the HadAM3H-driven (RH) regional simulations. In all the scenario runs, the warming in northern Europe is largest in winter or late autumn. In central and southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer when it locally reaches 10 degreesC in the RE-A2 simulation and 6-7 degreesC in the RH-A2 and RE-B2 simulations. The four simulations agree on a general increase in precipitation in northern Europe especially in winter and on a general decrease in precipitation in southern and central Europe in summer, but the magnitude and the geographical patterns of the change differ markedly between RH and RE. This reflects very different changes in the atmospheric circulation during the winter half-year, which also lead to quite different simulated changes in windiness. All four simulations show a large increase in the lowest minimum temperatures in northern, central and eastern Europe, most likely due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases.

  • 119.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates2019Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, nr 5-6, s. 3369-3387Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 120.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Uncertainties in Projections of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Driven by an Ensemble of Global Climate Models2019Inngår i: FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE, ISSN 2296-6463, Vol. 6, artikkel-id UNSP 244Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 121.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    An algorithm based on sea-level pressure fluctuations to identify major Baltic inflow events2014Inngår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 66, artikkel-id 23452Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Major Baltic inflows are an important process to sustain the sensitive steady state of the Baltic Sea. We introduce an algorithm to identify atmospheric variability favourable for major Baltic inflows. The algorithm is based on sea-level pressure (SLP) fields as the only parameter. Characteristic SLP pattern fluctuations include a precursory phase of 30 days and 10 days of inflow period. The algorithm identifies successfully the majority of observed major Baltic inflows between 1961 and 2010. In addition, the algorithm finds some occurrences which cannot be related to observed inflows. In these cases with favourable atmospheric conditions, inflows were precluded by contemporaneously existing saline water masses or strong freshwater supply. Moreover, the algorithm clearly identifies the stagnation periods as a lack of SLP variability favourable for MBIs. This indicates that the lack of inflows is mainly a consequence of missing atmospheric forcing during this period. The only striking inflow which is not identified by the algorithm is the event in January 2003. We demonstrate that this is due to the special evolution of SLP fields which are not comparable with any other event. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an ensemble of scenario simulations. The result indicates that the number of atmospheric events favourable for major Baltic inflows increases slightly in all scenarios.

  • 122.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    A regional climate model simulation over the Baltic Sea region for the last Millennium2011Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Variabilitet och långsiktig klimatförändring i Fennoskandien undersöks i en 1000 år lång under det senaste milleniet i en 1000 år lång klimatmodellsimulering. Vi använder Rossby Centres regionala klimatmodell (RCA3) med randvärden från en global klimatmodell (GCM). Effekten av variabilitet i solinstrålning, ändrade astronomiska förhållanden och ändringar i växthusgskoncentrationer har använts för att driva modellerna. Resultaten visar att RCA3 genererar en medeltida varm period (MCA) som är den varmaste under hela milleniet undantaget 1900-talet. Dessutom visar resultaten på en kall ”Lilla Istid” (LIA). I simuleringen motsvarar dessa perioder 1100- 1299 (MCA) samt 1600-1799 (LIA). Det här överensstämmer med rekonstruktioner och kan till största delen relateras till ändringar i solinstrålning. Vi fann vidare att variabiliteten över flera decennier har en betydande effekt på klimatet under MCA och LIA. Variabiliteten över flera decennier kan ibland också förklara motsägelsefulla rekonstruktioner om dessa är representativa för kortare icke sammanfallande perioder. I tillägg till tidsserier, undersöker vi också rumsliga mönster hos temperatur, lufttryck i havsytans nivå, nederbörd, molntäcke, vindhastighet och byighet för både säsongs- och årsmedelvärden. De flesta parametrarna visar störst skillnad mellan olika perioder för vintersäsongen. Som exempel kan nämnas att vintern under MCA var 1-2.5 K varmare än under LIA sett som medelvärde över flera decennier. Variabilitet och långsiktig klimatförändring i Fennoskandien undersöks i en 1000 år lång under det senaste milleniet i en 1000 år lång klimatmodellsimulering. Vi använder Rossby Centres regionala klimatmodell (RCA3) med randvärden från en global klimatmodell (GCM). Effekten av variabilitet i solinstrålning, ändrade astronomiska förhållanden och ändringar i växthusgskoncentrationer har använts för att driva modellerna. Resultaten visar att RCA3 genererar en medeltida varm period (MCA) som är den varmaste under hela milleniet undantaget 1900-talet. Dessutom visar resultaten på en kall ”Lilla Istid” (LIA). I simuleringen motsvarar dessa perioder 1100- 1299 (MCA) samt 1600-1799 (LIA). Det här överensstämmer med rekonstruktioner och kan till största delen relateras till ändringar i solinstrålning. Vi fann vidare att variabiliteten över flera decennier har en betydande effekt på klimatet under MCA och LIA. Variabiliteten över flera decennier kan ibland också förklara motsägelsefulla rekonstruktioner om dessa är representativa för kortare icke sammanfallande perioder. I tillägg till tidsserier, undersöker vi också rumsliga mönster hos temperatur, lufttryck i havsytans nivå, nederbörd, molntäcke, vindhastighet och byighet för både säsongs- och årsmedelvärden. De flesta parametrarna visar störst skillnad mellan olika perioder för vintersäsongen. Som exempel kan nämnas att vintern under MCA var 1-2.5 K varmare än under LIA sett som medelvärde över flera decennier. Variabilitet och långsiktig klimatförändring i Fennoskandien undersöks i en 1000 år lång under det senaste milleniet i en 1000 år lång klimatmodellsimulering. Vi använder Rossby Centres regionala klimatmodell (RCA3) med randvärden från en global klimatmodell (GCM). Effekten av variabilitet i solinstrålning, ändrade astronomiska förhållanden och ändringar i växthusgskoncentrationer har använts för att driva modellerna. Resultaten visar att RCA3 genererar en medeltida varm period (MCA) som är den varmaste under hela milleniet undantaget 1900-talet. Dessutom visar resultaten på en kall ”Lilla Istid” (LIA). I simuleringen motsvarar dessa perioder 1100- 1299 (MCA) samt 1600-1799 (LIA). Det här överensstämmer med rekonstruktioner och kan till största delen relateras till ändringar i solinstrålning. Vi fann vidare att variabiliteten över flera decennier har en betydande effekt på klimatet under MCA och LIA. Variabiliteten över flera decennier kan ibland också förklara motsägelsefulla rekonstruktioner om dessa är representativa för kortare icke sammanfallande perioder. I tillägg till tidsserier, undersöker vi också rumsliga mönster hos temperatur, lufttryck i havsytans nivå, nederbörd, molntäcke, vindhastighet och byighet för både säsongs- och årsmedelvärden. De flesta parametrarna visar störst skillnad mellan olika perioder för vintersäsongen. Som exempel kan nämnas att vintern under MCA var 1-2.5 K varmare än under LIA sett som medelvärde över flera decennier. Variabilitet och långsiktig klimatförändring i Fennoskandien undersöks i en 1000 år lång under det senaste milleniet i en 1000 år lång klimatmodellsimulering. Vi använder Rossby Centres regionala klimatmodell (RCA3) med randvärden från en global klimatmodell (GCM). Effekten av variabilitet i solinstrålning, ändrade astronomiska förhållanden och ändringar i växthusgskoncentrationer har använts för att driva modellerna. Resultaten visar att RCA3 genererar en medeltida varm period (MCA) som är den varmaste under hela milleniet undantaget 1900-talet. Dessutom visar resultaten på en kall ”Lilla Istid” (LIA). I simuleringen motsvarar dessa perioder 1100- 1299 (MCA) samt 1600-1799 (LIA). Det här överensstämmer med rekonstruktioner och kan till största delen relateras till ändringar i solinstrålning. Vi fann vidare att variabiliteten över flera decennier har en betydande effekt på klimatet under MCA och LIA. Variabiliteten över flera decennier kan ibland också förklara motsägelsefulla rekonstruktioner om dessa är representativa för kortare icke sammanfallande perioder. I tillägg till tidsserier, undersöker vi också rumsliga mönster hos temperatur, lufttryck i havsytans nivå, nederbörd, molntäcke, vindhastighet och byighet för både säsongs- och årsmedelvärden. De flesta parametrarna visar störst skillnad mellan olika perioder för vintersäsongen. Som exempel kan nämnas att vintern under MCA var 1-2.5 K varmare än under LIA sett som medelvärde över flera decennier.

  • 123.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Decadal-to-Centennial Variability of Salinity in the Baltic Sea2016Inngår i: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 29, nr 20, s. 7173-7188Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 124.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model2012Inngår i: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 8, nr 5, s. 1419-1433Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical down-scaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.

  • 125. She, Jun
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Darecki, Miroslaw
    Gorringe, Patrick
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Huess, Vibeke
    Kouts, Tarmo
    Reissmann, Jan Hinrich
    Tuomi, Laura
    Baltic Sea Operational Oceanography-A Stimulant for Regional Earth System Research2020Inngår i: Frontiers in Earth Science, ISSN 2296-6463, Vol. 8, artikkel-id 7Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 126. Skogen, Morten D.
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hansen, Jorgen L. S.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Molchanov, Mikhail S.
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.
    Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study2014Inngår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 132, s. 174-184Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication status was made for a control (19702000) and a future climate (20702100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.

  • 127. Soomere, Tarmo
    et al.
    Delpeche, Nicole
    Viikmaee, Bert
    Quak, Ewald
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Doeoes, Kristofer
    Patterns of current-induced transport in the surface layer of the Gulf of Finland2011Inngår i: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 16, s. 49-63Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The Lagrangian trajectory model TRACMASS based on an Eulerian field of velocities (calculated using the Rossby Centre Ocean Model), combined with relevant statistical analysis, is used for the identification of transport patterns in the surface layer of the Gulf of Finland from 1987-1991. The analysis of velocity fields and properties of net and bulk transport (the distance between the start and end positions of a trajectory, and the total length of the trajectory, respectively) shows the presence of semi-persistent (with a typical lifetime from a week to a few months) features of the surface-layer dynamics, a part of which evidently cannot be extracted directly from the velocity fields. The modelled surface dynamics mostly hosts an Ekman-type drift and, in yearly average, contains an anticyclonic gyre occupying the western part of the gulf. The prevailing transport directions to the east and slightly to the south match the direction of the Ekman surface drift created by predominant south-western winds. The spatial patterns of the net transport substantially vary over different seasons. The most intense net transport along the coasts occurs in the western and central parts of the gulf but contains relatively intense largely meridional transport pathways in some seasons.

  • 128. Soomere, Tarmo
    et al.
    Doos, Kristofer
    Lehmann, Andreas
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Murawski, Jens
    Myrberg, Kai
    Stanev, Emil
    The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea2014Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, nr 1, s. 94-104Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.

  • 129. Vali, Germo
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Elken, Jueri
    Simulated halocline variability in the Baltic Sea and its impact on hypoxia during 1961-20072013Inngår i: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, ISSN 2169-9275, Vol. 118, nr 12, s. 6982-7000Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Salinity and halocline depth variations in the Baltic Sea during 1961-2007 are studied using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model. Significant interannual and interdecadal variations in the halocline depth are found, together with distinct periods characterized either by shallow (1970-1975) or deep halocline (1990-1995). The model simulation indicates that the mean top layer salinity in the Baltic Sea is mainly controlled by the accumulated river runoff, while the mean below halocline salinity in the Baltic proper (which comprises Bornholm and Gotland basins) is more dependent on the low-pass filtered zonal wind stress, with cutoff period of 4 years, henceforth called the mean zonal wind stress. The halocline depth and stratification strength in the Baltic Sea are significantly affected by the mean zonal wind stress, while the impact of runoff is smaller. The ventilation of the halocline from bottom layers is stronger during the shallow and from surface layers during the deep halocline period. Due to changes in ventilation variations in halocline depth systematically affect bottom oxygen concentrations on seasonal and decadal, but not on interannual time scales. For instance, a deeper halocline reduces hypoxic (oxygen concentration in bottom water below 2 mL/L) and anoxic (anoxic conditions in bottom water) areas and increases the bottom oxygen concentrations in the Gulf of Finland but decreases them in the deeper parts of the Baltic proper. Model results suggest that due to undersampling during 1961-2007 mean hypoxic and anoxic areas calculated from observed profiles are underestimated by 41% and 43%, respectively.

  • 130. Vuorinen, Ilppo
    et al.
    Hanninen, Jari
    Rajasilta, Marjut
    Laine, Paivi
    Eklund, Jan
    Montesino-Pouzols, Federico
    Corona, Francesco
    Junker, Karin
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dippner, Joachim W.
    Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas - Implications for environmental monitoring (vol 50, pg 196, 2015)2015Inngår i: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 53, s. 294-294Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 131. Vuorinen, Ilppo
    et al.
    Hanninen, Jari
    Rajasilta, Marjut
    Laine, Paivi
    Eklund, Jan
    Montesino-Pouzols, Federico
    Corona, Francesco
    Junker, Karin
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dippner, Joachim W.
    Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas-implications for environmental monitoring2015Inngår i: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 50, s. 196-205Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea Watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5-7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species' ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40-50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the "ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring". (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  • 132.
    Väli, Germo
    et al.
    Tallinn University of Technology, Department of Marine Systems.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Placke, Manja
    Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research (IOW).
    River runoff forcing for ocean modeling withinthe Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Project2019Rapport (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Project (BMIP) aims to study different processes in the Baltic Sea using numerical models from different institutes and groups forced by the same atmospheric and freshwater forcing. In this report a description and an overview about the common freshwater forcing for the period 1961-2018 is given. Originally based on the hydrological model E-HYPE, the BMIP forcing is compiled from the available observations (Neva river), historical reconstruction and hydrological model simulations (hindcast and forecast simulations by the E-HYPE). The final homogenized dataset has daily resolution in freshwater discharge from 91 locations in the Baltic Sea region and is in good agreement with previously available datasets.

  • 133.
    Väli, Germo
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Elken, Jüri
    Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia.
    Simulated variations of the Baltic Sea halocline during 1961-20072012Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Variationer i Östersjöns salthalt och haloklindjup under perioden 1961-2007 har studerats med hjälp av Rossby Centre Ocean Model. De största trenderna i måndadsmedelvärdet av medelsalthalten i de översta 15 m hittades i Rigabukten samt i egentliga Östersjön. I de nordligaste delarna av Östersjön kunde ej någon signifikant trend påvisas. Perioden 1970-1975 uppvisade en grund haloklin, emedan en djup haloklin kunde identifieras under perioden 1990-1995. Skillnaden i djup mellan de båda perioderna var över 15 m i egentliga Östersjön. Modellsimuleringarna antyder att medelytsalthalten i Östersjön är rumsligt styrd av den ackumulerade flodtillrinningen, medan salthalten under haloklinen i egentliga Östersjön styrs av den zonala medelvinden och den absoluta vindhastigheten. Den zonala vindhastighetens påverkan på det genomsnittliga haloklindjupet i egentliga Östersjön är måttlig och flodtillrinningens påverkan är låg.

  • 134. Wang, Jia
    et al.
    Kwok, Ron
    Saucier, F. J.
    Hutchings, J
    Ikeda, M
    Hibler III, W
    Haapala, J
    Coon, M.D.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eicken, H
    Tanaka, N
    Prentki, D
    Johnsson, W
    Working toward improved small‐scale sea ice‐ocean modeling in the Arctic seas2003Inngår i: EOS: Transactions, ISSN 0096-3941, E-ISSN 2324-9250, Vol. 84, nr 34, s. 325-330Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 135.
    Wang, Shiyu
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model in the North Sea and Baltic Sea2015Inngår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, artikkel-id 24284Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is developed, which is composed of the regional setup of ocean model NEMO, the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, the sea ice model LIM3 and the river routing model CaMa-Flood. The performance of this coupled model system is assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries during the period 1979-2010. Compared to observations, this coupled model system can realistically simulate the present climate. Since the active coupling area covers the North Sea and Baltic Sea only, the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere over Europe is small. However, we found some local, statistically significant impacts on surface parameters like 2m air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). A precipitation-SST correlation analysis indicates that both coupled and uncoupled models can reproduce the air-sea relationship reasonably well. However, the coupled simulation gives slightly better correlations even when all seasons are taken into account. The seasonal correlation analysis shows that the air-sea interaction has a strong seasonal dependence. Strongest discrepancies between the coupled and the uncoupled simulations occur during summer. Due to lack of air-sea interaction, in the Baltic Sea in the uncoupled atmosphere-standalone run the correlation between precipitation and SST is too small compared to observations, whereas the coupled run is more realistic. Further, the correlation analysis between heat flux components and SST tendency suggests that the coupled model has a stronger correlation. Our analyses show that this coupled model system is stable and suitable for different climate change studies.

  • 136. Weigel, Benjamin
    et al.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Snickars, Martin
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Long-term progression and drivers of coastal zoobenthos in a changing system2015Inngår i: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 528, s. 141-159Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal zones are facing climate-driven change coupled with escalating eutrophication. With increasing shifts in hydrographic conditions during the past few decades, a focal task is to understand how environmental drivers affect zoobenthic communities, which play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning. By using long-term data, spanning 40 yr (1973 to 2013) in the northern Baltic Sea, we showed a disparity in zoobenthic responses with pronounced changes in community composition and a trend towards decreased biomass in sheltered areas, while biomasses increased in exposed areas of the coastal zone. We used generalized additive modeling to show that bottom oxygen saturation, sea surface temperature and organic load of the sediments were the main environmental drivers behind contrasting patterns in biomass progression. Oxygen saturation alone explained over one third of the deviation in the biomass developments in sheltered areas, while exposed areas were mainly limited by organic content of the sediments. We analyzed high-resolution climate-scenario simulations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios for the Baltic Sea region in combination with different nutrient load scenarios, for the end of the 21st century. The scenario outcomes showed negative trends in bottom oxygen concentrations throughout the coastal and archipelago zone along with overall increasing temperatures and primary production, and decreasing salinity. Our results suggest that these projected future conditions will strengthen the observed pattern in decreasing zoobenthic production in the immediate coastal zones. Moreover, the potential intensification of unfavorable conditions ex-panding seaward may lead to an expansion of biomass loss to more exposed sites.

  • 137.
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    A model sensitivity study for the sea-air exchange of methane in the Laptev Sea, Arctic Ocean2014Inngår i: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology, ISSN 0280-6509, E-ISSN 1600-0889, Vol. 66, artikkel-id 24174Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The ocean's sinks and sources determine the concentration of methane in the water column and by that regulating the emission of methane to the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate how sensitive the sea-air exchange of methane is to increasing/decreasing sinks and sources as well as changes of different drivers with a time-dependent biogeochemical budget model for one of the shallow shelf sea in the Siberian Arctic, the Laptev Sea. The applied changes are: increased air temperature, river discharge, wind, atmospheric methane, concentration of nutrients in the river runoff or flux of methane from the sediment. Furthermore, simulations are performed to examine how the large range in observations for methane concentration in the Lena River as well as the rate of oxidation affects the net sea-air exchange. In addition, a simulation with five of these changes applied together was carried out to simulate expected climate change at the end of this century. The result indicates that none of the simulations changed the seawater to becoming a net sink for atmospheric methane and all simulations except three increased the outgassing to the atmosphere. The three exceptions were: doubling the atmospheric methane, decreasing the rivers' concentration of methane and increasing the oxidation rate where the latter is one of the key mechanisms controlling emission of methane to the atmosphere.

  • 138.
    Wåhlström, Irene
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water on the sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea2016Inngår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 121, nr 7, s. 1867-1883Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 139. Zandersen, Marianne
    et al.
    Hyytiainen, Kari
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Bauer, Barbara
    Haapasaari, Paivi E.
    Olesen, Jorgen Eivind
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Refsgaard, Jens Christian
    Fridell, Erik
    Pihlainen, Sampo
    Le Tissier, Martin D. A.
    Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa
    Van Vuuren, Detlef P.
    Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems2019Inngår i: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 19, nr 4, s. 1073-1086Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
123 101 - 139 of 139
RefereraExporteraLink til resultatlisten
Permanent link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.35.9
|