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  • 101.
    Eriksson, Bertil
    SMHI.
    Sveriges Vattenbalans. Årsmedelvärden (1931–60) av nederbörd, avdunstning och avrinning1980Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The correction factors, which were proposed in an earlier report RMK 17 (1980) to be applied to measured precipitation amounts, have been used on the normal annual values for the period 1931-60. A map is presented, where corrected values from about 260 stations have been used for the analysis. To get the normal annual evaporation values the normal runoff values have been subtracted from the corrected precipitation annual sums. A map is drawn showing the pattern of the normal evaporation in Sweden. The map and the values show good agreement in those points, where reliable evaporation values are available. The conclusion is drawn that the corrections of the precipitation data have the correct order of magnitude. However, there are of course great uncertainties in the details of the map of the normal evaporation in southern Sweden in some areas values above 500 mm per year appear. In order to verify these results, another independent method must be used. It  seems appropriate to establish regression equations between evaporation and the summer mean temperature and maybe even other variables like wind velocity, cloudiness, vapour pressure deficit.

    Area mean values of runoff, precipitation and evapotranspiration amounts have been calculated from the maps by integration. The mean annual precipitation amount for the whole of Sweden was found to be 745 mm. This value is 28% higher than the value computed from uncorrected data. 18% units are due to corrections for losses due to wind, evaporation and adhesion, when measuring the precipitation amounts. The rest, 10% units, is an effect of the fact that the precipitation stations are too few in higher regions. For the country as a whole is found that somewhat less than 50% of the precipitation evaporates as water vapour into the atrnosphere. In mountanious regions, where the largest precipitation amounts fall, only about 15% dissapear into the air.

  • 102.
    Eriksson, Bertil
    SMHI.
    Temperaturfluktuationer under senaste 100 åren1979Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to investigate, if it is possible to trace anytendencies to increasing variability of the climate<luring the last decades, series of temperature datahave been treated. Five-day means of temperature havebeen analysed from two aspects. The mean conditions<luring running ten-year-periods have been studied aswell as the fluctuations of the variability (expressedwith the aid of standard deviation). Results in theform of diagrams are presented and cornrnented shortly

  • 103.
    Eriksson, Bertil
    SMHI.
    Vegetationsperioden i Sverige beräknad från temperaturobservationer1978Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The starting and ending date of the vegetationen period hasbeen calculated from the Swedish temperature observationnetwork for the period 1961-74. The dates have been determinedfor individual years. The criterium used for the determinationof the dates is daily mean temperature 6° during at least fourday s. Maps showing the mean starting and ending date of thevegetation period as well as the length of period have been drawn.A table is presented giving those years with the earliest andlatest dates of the arrival and end of the vegetation period.

  • 104.
    Eriksson, Bertil
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI, Research Department.
    OUR CHANGING CLIMATE1990In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, ISSN 0168-1923, E-ISSN 1873-2240, Vol. 50, no 1-2, p. 55-64Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 105. Eyring, Veronika
    et al.
    Righi, Mattia
    Lauer, Axel
    Evaldsson, Martin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wenzel, Sabrina
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Anav, Alessandro
    Andrews, Oliver
    Cionni, Irene
    Davin, Edouard L.
    Deser, Clara
    Ehbrecht, Carsten
    Friedlingstein, Pierre
    Gleckler, Peter
    Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Juckes, Martin
    Kindermann, Stephan
    Krasting, John
    Kunert, Dominik
    Levine, Richard
    Loew, Alexander
    Maekelae, Jarmo
    Martin, Gill
    Mason, Erik
    Phillips, Adam S.
    Read, Simon
    Rio, Catherine
    Roehrig, Romain
    Senftleben, Daniel
    Sterl, Andreas
    van Ulft, Lambertus H.
    Walton, Jeremy
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Williams, Keith D.
    ESMValTool (v1.0) - a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP2016In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 9, no 5, p. 1747-1802Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations. The priority of the effort so far has been to target specific scientific themes focusing on selected essential climate variables (ECVs), a range of known systematic biases common to ESMs, such as coupled tropical climate variability, monsoons, Southern Ocean processes, continental dry biases, and soil hydrology-climate interactions, as well as atmospheric CO2 budgets, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and tropospheric aerosols. The tool is being developed in such a way that additional analyses can easily be added. A set of standard namelists for each scientific topic reproduces specific sets of diagnostics or performance metrics that have demonstrated their importance in ESM evaluation in the peer-reviewed literature. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community effort open to both users and developers encouraging open exchange of diagnostic source code and evaluation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensemble. This will facilitate and improve ESM evaluation beyond the state-of-the-art and aims at supporting such activities within CMIP and at individual modelling centres. Ultimately, we envisage running the ESMValTool alongside the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) as part of a more routine evaluation of CMIP model simulations while utilizing observations available in standard formats (obs4MIPs) or provided by the user.

  • 106. Favre, Alice
    et al.
    Philippon, Nathalie
    Pohl, Benjamin
    Kalognomou, Evangelia-Anna
    Lennard, Christopher
    Hewitson, Bruce
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Panitz, Hans-Juergen
    Cerezo-Mota, Ruth
    Spatial distribution of precipitation annual cycles over South Africa in 10 CORDEX regional climate model present-day simulations2016In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 5-6, p. 1799-1818Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study presents an evaluation of the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-Africa to reproduce the present-day spatial distribution of annual cycles of precipitation over the South African region and its borders. As found in previous studies, annual mean precipitation is quasi-systematically overestimated by the RCMs over a large part of southern Africa south of about 20A degrees S and more strongly over South Africa. The spatial analysis of precipitation over the studied region shows that in most models the distribution of biases appears to be linked to orography. Wet biases are quasi-systematic in regions with higher elevation with inversely neutral to dry biases particularly in the coastal fringes. This spatial pattern of biases is particularly obvious during summer and specifically at the beginning of the rainy season (November and December) when the wet biases are found to be the strongest across all models. Applying a k-means algorithm, a classification of annual cycles is performed using observed precipitation data, and is compared with those derived from modeled data. It is found that the in-homogeneity of the spatial and temporal distribution of biases tends to impact the modeled seasonality of precipitation. Generally, the pattern of rainfall seasonality in the ensemble mean of the 10 RCMs tends to be shifted to the southwest. This spatial shift is mainly linked to a strong overestimation of convective precipitation at the beginning of the rainy season over the plateau inducing an early annual peak and to an underestimation of stratiform rainfall in winter and spring over southwestern South Africa.

  • 107. Fiebig, M.
    et al.
    Hirdman, David
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lunder, C. R.
    Ogren, J. A.
    Solberg, S.
    Stohl, A.
    Thompson, R. L.
    Annual cycle of Antarctic baseline aerosol: controlled by photooxidation-limited aerosol formation2014In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 14, no 6, p. 3083-3093Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article investigates the annual cycle observed in the Antarctic baseline aerosol scattering coefficient, total particle number concentration, and particle number size distribution (PNSD), as measured at Troll Atmospheric Observatory. Mie theory shows that the annual cycles in microphysical and optical aerosol properties have a common cause. By comparison with observations at other Antarctic stations, it is shown that the annual cycle is not a local phenomenon, but common to central Antarctic baseline air masses. Observations of ground-level ozone at Troll as well as backward plume calculations for the air masses arriving at Troll demonstrate that the baseline air masses originate from the free troposphere and lower stratosphere region, and descend over the central Antarctic continent. The Antarctic summer PNSD is dominated by particles with diameters < 100 nm recently formed from the gas-phase despite the absence of external sources of condensible gases. The total particle volume in Antarctic baseline aerosol is linearly correlated with the integral insolation the aerosol received on its transport pathway, and the photooxidative production of particle volume is mostly limited by photooxidative capacity, not availability of aerosol precursor gases. The photooxidative particle volume formation rate in central Antarctic baseline air is quantified to 207 +/- 4 mu m(3)/(MJ m). Further research is proposed to investigate the applicability of this number to other atmospheric reservoirs, and to use the observed annual cycle in Antarctic baseline aerosol properties as a benchmark for the representation of natural atmospheric aerosol processes in climate models.

  • 108.
    Fitch, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Climate Impacts of Large-Scale Wind Farms as Parameterized in a Global Climate Model2015In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 28, no 15, p. 6160-6180Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The local, regional, and global climate impacts of a large-scale global deployment of wind power in regionally high densities over land are investigated for a 60-yr period. Wind farms are represented as elevated momentum sinks as well as enhanced turbulence to represent turbine blade mixing in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), a global climate model. For a total installed capacity of 2.5 TW, to provide 16% of the world's projected electricity demand in 2050, minimal impacts are found both regionally and globally on temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, cloud, and precipitation. A mean near-surface warming of 0.12 +/- 0.07 K is seen within the wind farms, with a global-mean temperature change of -0.013 +/- 0.015 K. Impacts on wind speed and turbulence are more pronounced but largely confined within the wind farm areas. Increasing the wind farm areas to provide an installed capacity of 10 TW, or 65% of the 2050 electricity demand, causes further impacts; however, they remain slight overall. Maximum temperature changes are less than 0.5 K in the wind farm areas. To provide 20 TW of installed capacity, or 130% of the 2050 electricity demand, impacts both within the wind farms and beyond become more pronounced, with a doubling in turbine density. However, maximum temperature changes remain less than 0.7 K. Representing wind farms instead as an increase in surface roughness generally produces similar mean results; however, maximum changes increase, and influences on wind and turbulence are exaggerated. Overall, wind farm impacts are much weaker than those expected from greenhouse gas emissions, with very slight global-mean climate impacts.

  • 109.
    Fitch, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Notes on using the mesoscale wind farm parameterization of Fitch et al. (2012) in WRF2016In: Wind Energy, ISSN 1095-4244, E-ISSN 1099-1824, Vol. 19, no 9, p. 1757-1758Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 110.
    Fladrich, Uwe
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Stiller, Joerg
    Nagel, Wolfgang E.
    IMPROVED PERFORMANCE FOR NODAL SPECTRAL ELEMENT OPERATORS2008In: The international journal of high performance computing applications, ISSN 1094-3420, E-ISSN 1741-2846, Vol. 22, no 4, p. 450-459Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 111.
    Friman, Mathias
    SMHI.
    Consensus rationales in negotiating historical responsibility for climate change2016In: International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, ISSN 1567-9764, E-ISSN 1573-1553, Vol. 16, no 2, p. 285-305Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article explores strategies in consensus-making processes in international climate diplomacy. Specifically, it examines the consensus-making politics, in the case of negotiating historical responsibility within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. In doing so, analytical concepts from the discourse theory of Laclau and Mouffe are utilized to look for rationales that underpin discursive structures as well as agreement. To conclude, three rationales have dealt with conflicts over historical responsibility. While the first rationale hid conflict behind interpretative flexibility, the second reverted to "reasoned consensus," excluding perspectives commonly understood as political rather than scientific. The third rationale has enabled equivocal use of the concept of historical responsibility in several parallel discourses, yet negotiators still stumble on how to synthesize these with a potential to foster future, more policy-detailed, consensuses with higher legitimacy. Understanding the history and current situation of negotiations on historical responsibility from this perspective can help guide policy makers toward decisions that avoid old pitfalls and construct new rationales that generate a higher sense of legitimacy.

  • 112. Friman, Mathias
    et al.
    Hjerpe, Mattias
    Agreement, significance, and understandings of historical responsibility in climate change negotiations2015In: Climate Policy, ISSN 1469-3062, E-ISSN 1752-7457, Vol. 15, no 3, p. 302-320Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For over 20 years, Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have struggled with the normative significance of history for the differentiation of responsibilities. Negotiations on 'historical responsibility' have been marked by considerable conflict between developed and developing countries. However, in 2010, the Parties acknowledged the concept in a consensus decision. This article analyses UN Climate Change Conference delegates' agreement with the decision, whether it reconciled conflict between interpretations of historical responsibility, and the significance that delegates ascribe to the decision for future agreements. The decision has not eliminated conflict between different interpretations. Delegates who understand historical responsibility as linking countries' historical contributions to climate change to their responsibilities to act agree more with the decision and foresee it having a stronger influence on future agreements than do those viewing the concept in more conceptual terms. The decision marks the start of negotiations concerning how rather than whether historical responsibility should guide operative text. This article demonstrates that (1) the divergent interpretations pose clear challenges for a necessary but demanding agreement on operationalization, and (2) focusing on an ambiguous version of proportionality between contribution to change and responsibility can become a first step for convergence between divergent positions.

  • 113. Friman, Mathias
    et al.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Historical responsibility for climate change: science and the science-policy interface2014In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, ISSN 1757-7780, E-ISSN 1757-7799, Vol. 5, no 3, p. 297-316Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Since 1990, the academic literature on historical responsibility (HR) for climate change has grown considerably. Over these years, the approaches to defining this responsibility have varied considerably. This article demonstrates how this variation can be explained by combining various defining aspects of historical contribution and responsibility. Scientific knowledge that takes for granted choices among defining aspects will likely become a basis for distrust within science, among negotiators under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and elsewhere. On the other hand, for various reasons, not all choices can be explicated at all times. In this article, we examine the full breadth of complexities involved in scientifically defining HR and discuss how these complexities have consequences for the science-policy interface concerning HR. To this end, we review and classify the academic literature on historical contributions to and responsibility for climate change into categories of defining aspects. One immediately policy-relevant conclusion emerges from this exercise: Coupled with negotiators' highly divergent understandings of historical responsibility, the sheer number of defining aspects makes it virtually impossible to offer scientific advice without creating distrust in certain parts of the policy circle. This conclusion suggests that scientific attempts to narrow the options for policymakers will have little chance of succeeding unless policymakers first negotiate a clearer framework for historical responsibility. For further resources related to this article, please visit the . Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.

  • 114.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Pavia, Edgar G.
    Graef, Federico
    Coppola, Erika
    Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach2018In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 38, no 11, p. 4051-4065Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 115.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sensitivity of the Arctic freshwater content and transport to model resolution2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 3-4, p. 1765-1781Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 116. Gaillard, M. -J
    et al.
    Sugita, S.
    Mazier, F.
    Trondman, A. -K
    Brostrom, A.
    Hickler, T.
    Kaplan, J. O.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kokfelt, U.
    Kunes, P.
    Lemmen, C.
    Miller, P.
    Olofsson, J.
    Poska, A.
    Rundgren, M.
    Smith, B.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fyfe, R.
    Nielsen, A. B.
    Alenius, T.
    Balakauskas, L.
    Barnekow, L.
    Birks, H. J. B.
    Bjune, A.
    Bjorkman, L.
    Giesecke, T.
    Hjelle, K.
    Kalnina, L.
    Kangur, M.
    van der Knaap, W. O.
    Koff, T.
    Lageras, P.
    Latalowa, M.
    Leydet, M.
    Lechterbeck, J.
    Lindbladh, M.
    Odgaard, B.
    Peglar, S.
    Segerstrom, U.
    von Stedingk, H.
    Seppa, H.
    Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks2010In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 6, no 4, p. 483-499Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover - CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/land-cover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs 'grassland' and 'agricultural land' at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.

  • 117. Gaillard, Marie-Jose
    et al.
    Kleinen, Thomas
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Nielsen, Anne Birgitte
    Bergh, Johan
    Kaplan, Jed
    Poska, Anneli
    Sandstrom, Camilla
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Trondman, Anna-Kari
    Wramneby, Anna
    Causes of Regional Change-Land Cover2015Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response over the last two centuries is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects and to the biogeochemical versus biogeophysical effects. Palaeoecological studies show that the major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the Baltic Sea basin occurred between 6000 and 3000/2500 cal year BP. The only modelling study of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in north-western Europe suggests that deforestation between 6000 and 200 cal year BP may have caused significant change in winter and summer temperature. There is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback. Several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes.

  • 118. Galmarini, S
    et al.
    Bianconi, R
    Klug, W
    Mikkelsen, T
    Addis, R
    Androllopoulos, S
    Astrup, P
    Baklanov, A
    Bartniki, J
    Bartzis, J C
    Bellasio, R
    Bompay, F
    Buckley, R
    Bouzom, M
    Champion, H
    D'Amours, R
    Davakis, E
    Eleveld, H
    Geertsema, G T
    Glaab, H
    Kolax, Michael
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ilvonen, M
    Manning, A
    Pechinger, U
    Persson, C
    Polreich, E
    Potemski, S
    Prodanova, M
    Saltbones, J
    Slaper, H
    Sofiev, M A
    Syrakov, D
    Sorensen, J H
    Van der Auwera, L
    Valkama, I
    Zelazny, R
    Can the confidence in long range atmospheric transport models be increased?: The Pan-European experience of ENSEMBLE2004In: Radiation Protection Dosimetry, ISSN 0144-8420, E-ISSN 1742-3406, Vol. 109, no 1-2, p. 19-24Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Is atmospheric dispersion forecasting an important asset of the early-phase nuclear emergency response management? Is there a 'perfect atmospheric dispersion model'? Is there a way to make the results of dispersion models more reliable and trustworthy? While seeking to answer these questions the multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast system ENSEMBLE will be presented.

  • 119. Galmarini, S
    et al.
    Bianconi, R
    Klug, W
    Mikkelsen, T
    Addis, R
    Andronopoulos, S
    Astrup, P
    Baklanov, A
    Bartniki, J
    Bartzis, J C
    Bellasio, R
    Bompay, F
    Buckley, R
    Bouzom, M
    Champion, H
    D'Amours, R
    Davakis, E
    Eleveld, H
    Geertsema, G T
    Glaab, H
    Kolax, Michael
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ilvonen, M
    Manning, A
    Pechinger, U
    Persson, Christer
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Polreich, E
    Potemski, S
    Prodanova, M
    Saltbones, J
    Slaper, H
    Sofiev, M A
    Syrakov, D
    Sorensen, J H
    Van der Auwera, L
    Valkama, I
    Zelazny, R
    Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part I: concept, approach and indicators2004In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 38, no 28, p. 4607-4617Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called multi-model ensemble dispersion and is based on the simultaneous analysis of several model simulations by means of ad-hoc statistical treatments and parameters. The models considered in this study are operational long-range transport and dispersion models used to support decision making in various countries in case of accidental releases of harmful volatile substances, in particular radionuclides to the atmosphere. The ensemble dispersion approach and indicators provide a way to reduce several model results to few concise representations that include an estimate of the models' agreement in predicting a specific scenario. The parameters proposed are particularly suited for long-range transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to short-range dispersion and weather fields. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 120. Gampe, David
    et al.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ludwig, Ralf
    Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins2016In: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, ISSN 0048-9697, Vol. 573, p. 1503-1518Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 121. Gascard, J. -C
    et al.
    Vihma, T.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    General introduction to the DAMOCLES special issue2015In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 15, no 10, p. 5377-5379Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 122.
    Gbobaniyi, Bode
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sarr, Abdoulaye
    Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba
    Diallo, Ismaila
    Lennard, Chris
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Dhiediou, Arona
    Kamga, Andre
    Klutse, Nana Ama Browne
    Hewitson, Bruce
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lamptey, Benjamin
    Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa2014In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 34, no 7, p. 2241-2257Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine the ability of an ensemble of 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, in skillfully reproducing key features of present-day precipitation and temperature (1990-2008) over West Africa. We explore a wide range of time scales spanning seasonal climatologies, annual cycles and interannual variability, and a number of spatial scales covering the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea and the entire West Africa. We find that the RCMs show acceptable performance in simulating the spatial distribution of the main precipitation and temperature features. The occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL), during the course of the year, are shown to be realistic in most RCMs. They also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked rainy seasons, in terms of timing and amplitude over the homogeneous sub-regions. However, we should emphasize that the RCMs exhibit some biases, which vary considerably in both magnitude and spatial extent from model to model. The interannual variability of seasonal anomalies is best reproduced in temperature rather than precipitation. The ensemble mean considerably improves the skill of most of the individual RCMs. This highlights the importance of performing multi-model assessment in properly estimating the response of the West African climate to global warming at seasonal, annual and interannual time scales.

  • 123. Gode, Jenny
    et al.
    Axelsson, Johan
    Eriksson,, Sara
    Holmgren, Kristina
    Hovsenius, Gunnar
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Larsson, Per
    Lundström, Love
    Persson, Gunn
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tänkbara konsekvenser för energisektorn av klimatförändringar- Effekter, sårbarhet och anpassning2007Report (Other academic)
  • 124. Good, P.
    et al.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Giannakopoulos, C.
    Holt, T.
    Palutikof, J.
    Non-linear regional relationships between climate extremes and annual mean temperatures in model projections for 1961-2099 over Europe2006In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 31, no 1, p. 19-34Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 125.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea2004In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, no 4-5, p. 235-241Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    River flow to the Baltic Sea originates under a range of different climate regimes in a drainage basin covering some 1 600 000 km(2). Changes to the climate in the Baltic Basin will not only affect the total amount of freshwater flowing into the sea, but also the distribution of the origin of these flows. Using hydrological modeling, the effects of future climate change on river runoff to the Baltic Sea have been analyzed. Four different climate change scenarios from the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) were used. The resulting change to total mean annual river flow to the Baltic Sea ranges from -2% to +15% of present-day flow according to the different climate scenarios. The magnitude of changes within different subregions of the basin varies considerably, with the most severe mean annual changes ranging from -30% to +40%. However, common to all of the scenarios evaluated is a general trend of reduced river flow from the south of the Baltic Basin together with increased river flow from the north.

  • 126.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Modeling runoff to the Baltic Sea1999In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 28, no 4, p. 328-334Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A large-scale hydrologic model of macroscale dimension for total daily runoff to the Baltic Sea has been developed using 25 subbasins ranging from 21000 to 144000 km(2). Daily synoptic input was calibrated against monthly recorded river flows. Reasonable model results for the water balance were obtained while keeping the level of detail to a minimum with a proven conceptual modeling approach. Important elements of the modeled water balance are presented for the five main Baltic Sea drainage basins. The model is used for cooperative research with both meteorological and oceanographic modeling within the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) and the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM). It provides off-line analysis for coupled model development and fills a needed role until truly coupled models become available. Furthermore, the model is suitable for operational applications and will be used to extend runoff records, fill in missing data, and perform quality checks on new observations.

  • 127.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Using Multiple RCM Simulations to Investigate Climate Change Effects on River Flow to the Baltic Sea2004In: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, 2004, p. 164-165Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 128.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Bringfelt, Björn
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Towards improved modelling of runoff in climate models2001In: Third study conference on BALTEX / [ed] J. Meywerk, 2001, p. 71-72Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 129.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Chen, Deliang
    Bøssing Christensen, Ole
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Krysanova, Valentina
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Radziejewski, Maciej
    Räisänen, Jouni
    Rockel, Burkhardt
    Ruosteenoja, Kimmo
    Projections of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change2008In: Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin / [ed] The BACC Author Team, Springer, Berlin , 2008, p. 133-219Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 130.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Jaun, Simon
    Beniston, Martin
    On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 97-122Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage areas to the Baltic Basin, the Botlinian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin. A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for downscaling.

  • 131.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Berndtsson, Ronny
    Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium2009In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 173-182Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this study was to reconstruct river flow to the Baltic Sea using data from different periods during the past thousand years. A hydrological model coupled to simulations from climate models was used to estimate river flow. A "millennium" simulation of past climate from the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model provided climatological inputs. Results from this global model were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model over northern Europe. Temperature and precipitation from the downscaled simulation results were then used in the HBV hydrological model to simulate river flows to the Baltic Sea for the periods 1000-1199 and 1551-1929. These were compared with observations for the period 1921-2002. A general conclusion from this work is that although climate has varied during the past millennium, variability in annual river flow to the Baltic Sea does not appear more pronounced in recent years than during the previous millennium, or vice versa.

  • 132. Graßl, Hartmut
    et al.
    Gryning, Sven-Erik
    Isemer, Hans-Jörg
    Omstedt, Anders
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    Rosbjerg, Dan
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Science Plan for BALTEX Phase II 2003-20122012Report (Refereed)
  • 133. Gregory, P J
    et al.
    Ingram, J S I
    Andersson, R
    Betts, R A
    Brovkin, V
    Chase, T N
    Grace, P R
    Gray, A J
    Hamilton, N
    Hardy, T B
    Howden, S M
    Jenkins, A
    Meybeck, M
    Olsson, M
    Ortiz-Monasterio, I
    Palm, C A
    Payn, T W
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schulze, R E
    Thiem, M
    Valentin, C
    Wilkinson, M J
    Environmental consequences of alternative practices for intensifying crop production2002In: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, ISSN 0167-8809, E-ISSN 1873-2305, Vol. 88, no 3, p. 279-290Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 134. Grist, Jeremy P.
    et al.
    Josey, Simon A.
    New, Adrian L.
    Roberts, Malcolm
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Iovino, Doroteaciro
    Increasing Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport in the Latest Generation Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: The Role of Air-Sea Interaction2018In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 123, no 11, p. 8624-8637Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 135. Guemas, Virginie
    et al.
    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward
    Chevallier, Matthieu
    Day, Jonathan J.
    Deque, Michel
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
    Fuckar, Neven S.
    Germe, Agathe
    Hawkins, Ed
    Keeley, Sarah
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Salas y Melia, David
    Tietsche, Steffen
    A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales2016In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, no 695, p. 546-561Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

  • 136. Guemas, Virginie
    et al.
    Garcia-Serrano, Javier
    Mariotti, Annarita
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco
    Caron, Louis-Philippe
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Prospects for decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region2015In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 141, no 687, p. 580-597Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Mediterranean region stands as one of the most sensitive to climate change, both in terms of warming and drying. On shorter time-scales, internal variability has substantially affected the observed climate and in the next decade might enhance or compensate long-term trends. Here we compare the multi-model climate predictions produced within the framework of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) project with historical simulations to assess the level of multi-year climate prediction skill in the Mediterranean region beyond that originating from the model accumulated response to the external radiative forcings. We obtain a high and significant skill in predicting 4-year averaged annual and summer mean temperature over most of the study domain and in predicting precipitation for the same seasons over northern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. A lower skill is found during the winter season but still positive for temperature. Although most of this high skill originates from the model response to the external radiative forcings, the initialization contributes to the temperature skill over the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding land areas. The high and significant correlations between the observed Mediterranean temperatures and the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) in the summer and annual means are captured by the CMIP5 ensemble which suggests that the added skill is related to the ability of the CMIP5 ensemble to predict the AMO. Such a link to the AMO seems restricted to western Africa and summer means only for the precipitation case.

  • 137. Guettler, Ivan
    et al.
    Stepanov, Igor
    Brankovic, Cedo
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Precipitation in Complex Orography Simulated by the Regional Climate Model RCA3*2015In: Monthly Weather Review, ISSN 0027-0644, E-ISSN 1520-0493, Vol. 143, no 9, p. 3610-3627Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The hydrostatic regional climate model RCA, version 3 (RCA3), of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute was used to dynamically downscale ERA-40 and the ECMWF operational analysis over a 22-yr period. Downscaling was performed at four horizontal resolutions-50, 25, 12.5, and 6.25 km-over an identical European domain. The model-simulated precipitation is evaluated against high-resolution gridded observational precipitation datasets over Switzerland and southern Norway, regions that are characterized by complex orography and distinct climate regimes. RCA3 generally overestimates precipitation over high mountains: during winter and summer over Switzerland and during summer over central-southern Norway. In the summer, this is linked with a substantial contribution of convective precipitation to the total precipitation errors, especially at the coarser resolutions (50 and 25 km). A general improvement in spatial correlation coefficients between simulated and observed precipitation is observed when the horizontal resolution is increased from 50 to 6 km. The 95th percentile spatial correlation coefficients during winter are much higher for southern Norway than for Switzerland, indicating that RCA3 is more successful at reproducing a relatively simple west-to-east precipitation gradient over southern Norway than a much more complex and variable precipitation distribution over Switzerland. The 6-km simulation is not always superior to the other simulations, possibly indicating that the model dynamical and physical configuration at this resolution may not have been optimal. However, a general improvement in simulated precipitation with increasing resolution supports further use and application of high spatial resolutions in RCA3.

  • 138. Guichard, F
    et al.
    Petch, J C
    Redelsperger, J L
    Bechtold, P
    Chaboureau, J P
    Cheinet, S
    Grabowski, W
    Grenier, H
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kohler, M
    Piriou, J M
    Tailleux, R
    Tomasini, M
    Modelling the diurnal cycle of deep precipitating convection over land with cloud-resolving models and single-column models2004In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 130, no 604, p. 3139-3172Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An idealized case-study has been designed to investigate the modelling of the diurnal cycle of deep precipitating convection over land. A simulation of this case was performed by seven single-column models (SCMs) and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Within this framework, a quick onset of convective rainfall is found in most SCMs, consistent with the results from general-circulation models. In contrast, CRMs do not predict rainfall before noon. A joint analysis of the results provided by both types of model indicates that convection occurs too early in most SCMs, due to crude triggering criteria and quick onsets of convective precipitation. In the CRMs, the first clouds appear before noon, but surface rainfall is delayed by a few hours to several hours. This intermediate stage, missing in all SCMs except for one, is characterized by a gradual moistening of the free troposphere and an increase of cloud-top height. Later on, convective downdraughts efficiently cool and dry the boundary layer (BL) in the CRMs. This feature is also absent in most SCMs, which tend to adjust towards more unstable states, with moister (and often more cloudy) low levels and a drier free atmosphere. This common behaviour of most SCMs with respect to deep moist convective processes occurs even though each SCM simulates a different diurnal cycle of the BL and atmospheric stability. The scatter among the SCMs results from the wide variety of representations of BL turbulence and moist convection in these models. Greater consistency is found among the CRMs, despite some differences in their representation of the daytime BL growth, which are linked to their parametrizations of BL turbulence and/or resolution.

  • 139. Gutierrez, J. M.
    et al.
    Maraun, D.
    Widmann, M.
    Huth, R.
    Hertig, E.
    Benestad, R.
    Roessler, O.
    Wibig, J.
    Wilcke, Renate
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kotlarski, S.
    San Martin, D.
    Herrera, S.
    Bedia, J.
    Casanueva, A.
    Manzanas, R.
    Iturbide, M.
    Vrac, M.
    Dubrovsky, M.
    Ribalaygua, J.
    Portoles, J.
    Raty, O.
    Raisanen, J.
    Hingray, B.
    Raynaud, D.
    Casado, M. J.
    Ramos, P.
    Zerenner, T.
    Turco, M.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Stepanek, P.
    Bartholy, J.
    Pongracz, R.
    Keller, D. E.
    Fischer, A. M.
    Cardoso, R. M.
    Soares, P. M. M.
    Czernecki, B.
    Page, C.
    An intercomparison of a large ensemble of statistical downscaling methods over Europe: Results from the VALUE perfect predictor cross-validation experiment2019In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 39, no 9, p. 3750-3785Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 140. Gutowski, William J., Jr.
    et al.
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Timbal, Bertrand
    Frigon, Anne
    Jacob, Daniela
    Kang, Hyun-Suk
    Raghavan, Krishnan
    Lee, Boram
    Lennard, Christopher
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    O'Rourke, Eleanor
    Rixen, Michel
    Solman, Silvina
    Stephenson, Tannecia
    Tangang, Fredolin
    WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP62016In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 9, no 11, p. 4087-4095Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 141.
    Haag, Tomas
    SMHI.
    Byggnadsindustrins väderberoende: Seminarieuppsats i företagsekonomi, B-nivå1978Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Redan 1969 visade en undersökning vid Svenska Byggnadsentreprenörsförbundet att byggnadsindustrin var intresserad av en branschanpassad väderprognos. Följande arbete syftar till att sondera byggnadsindustrins väderberoende samt hur en för branschen ändamålsenlig väderprognos bör se ut och distribueras.

    Byggnadsindustrin är som näringsgren mycket betydande för samhällsekonomin. Den svarar för ca 8% av BNP och sysselsätter ca 200 000 årsarbetare. Under senaste 10-årsperioden har det lagts ner mycket arbete föratt nå en rationellare byggnadsproduktion. Detta främst genom utarbetandet av den så kallade systematiska arbetsberedningen. Den syftar till att förebygga störningar och minska konsekvenserna av dessa. Då skall speciellt intresse ägnas åt de mest störningskänsliga punkterna och här måste vädrets inverkan på vissa arbetsoperationer beaktas. Gör man klart för sig vilka arbetsoperationer som är beroende av de olika väderelementen samt ritar in försvarsåtgärder och skyddade reservarbeten i planerna kan man, med hjälp av en ändamålsenlig väderprognos, fatta säkrare beslut om vilka åtgärder som skall utföras.

    Genom att utnyttja denna "byggprognos" kan arbetsledningen två ggr/dag fatta beslut över arbete vid väderberoende arbetsoperationer med hjälp av färska prognoser. Detta medför att försvarsåtgärder används endast då de behövs men då i god tid. Samt att det vid mycket dåliga förhållanden finns reservarbeten planerade som kan påbörjas utan dyrbara uppehåll, dessutom slipper man dyrbara överraskningar vid väderomslag.

    Med ändamålsenlig väderinformation menas en regional prognos med de väderelement som är av vikt för byggnadsindustrin samt att denna byggprognos distribueras på ett lämpligt sätt. Regionernas storlek kommer att variera så att man får så stora regioner som möjligt med "samma" väder. Statens Vägverk har delat in landet i 24 olika regioner vid beställning av sina "vägprognoser". Det är en beprövad indelning som anses vara användbar.

  • 142. Haarsma, Reindert J.
    et al.
    Roberts, Malcolm J.
    Vidale, Pier Luigi
    Senior, Catherine A.
    Bellucci, Alessio
    Bao, Qing
    Chang, Ping
    Corti, Susanna
    Fuckar, Neven S.
    Guemas, Virginie
    von Hardenberg, Jost
    Hazeleger, Wilco
    Kodama, Chihiro
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Leung, L. Ruby
    Lu, Jian
    Luo, Jing-Jia
    Mao, Jiafu
    Mizielinski, Matthew S.
    Mizuta, Ryo
    Nobre, Paulo
    Satoh, Masaki
    Scoccimarro, Enrico
    Semmler, Tido
    Small, Justin
    von Storch, Jin-Song
    High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP62016In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 9, no 11, p. 4185-4208Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 143. Hanson, C. E.
    et al.
    Palutikof, J. P.
    Livermore, M. T. J.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bindi, M.
    Corte-Real, J.
    Durao, R.
    Giannakopoulos, C.
    Good, P.
    Holt, T.
    Kundzewicz, Z.
    Leckebusch, G. C.
    Moriondo, M.
    Radziejewski, M.
    Santos, J.
    Schlyter, P.
    Schwarb, M.
    Stjernquist, I.
    Ulbrich, U.
    Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 163-177Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 144. Hartung, Kerstin
    et al.
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Resolution, physics and atmosphere-ocean interaction - How do they influence climate model representation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking?2017In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 69, article id 1406252Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 145. Hazeleger, W.
    et al.
    Guemas, V.
    Wouters, B.
    Corti, S.
    Andreu-Burillo, I.
    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies2013In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, no 9, p. 1794-1798Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multiyear climate predictions with two initialization strategies are systematically assessed in the EC-Earth V2.3 climate model. In one ensemble, an estimate of the observed climate state is used to initialize the model. The other uses estimates of observed ocean and sea ice anomalies on top of the model climatology. The ensembles show similar spatial characteristics of drift related to the biases in control simulations. As expected, the drift is less with anomaly initialization. The full field initialization overshoots to a colder state which is related to cold biases in the tropics and North Atlantic, associated with oceanic processes. Despite different amplitude of the drift, both ensembles show similar skill in multiyear global temperature predictions, but regionally differences are found. On multiyear time scales, initialization with observations enhances both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores in the North Atlantic. The probabilistic verification shows skill over the European continent.

  • 146. Hazeleger, W.
    et al.
    Wang, X.
    Severijns, C.
    Stefanescu, S.
    Bintanja, R.
    Sterl, A.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Semmler, T.
    Yang, S.
    van den Hurk, B.
    van Noije, T.
    van der Linden, E.
    van der Wiel, K.
    EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model2012In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, no 11, p. 2611-2629Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    EC-Earth, a new Earth system model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is presented. The performance of version 2.2 (V2.2) of the model is compared to observations, reanalysis data and other coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice models. The large-scale physical characteristics of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice are well simulated. When compared to other coupled models with similar complexity, the model performs well in simulating tropospheric fields and dynamic variables, and performs less in simulating surface temperature and fluxes. The surface temperatures are too cold, with the exception of the Southern Ocean region and parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The main patterns of interannual climate variability are well represented. Experiments with enhanced CO2 concentrations show well-known responses of Arctic amplification, land-sea contrasts, tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. The global climate sensitivity of the current version of EC-Earth is slightly less than 1 K/(W m(-2)). An intensification of the hydrological cycle is found and strong regional changes in precipitation, affecting monsoon characteristics. The results show that a coupled model based on an operational seasonal prediction system can be used for climate studies, supporting emerging seamless prediction strategies.

  • 147. Hazeleger, Wilco
    et al.
    Severijns, Camiel
    Semmler, Tido
    Stefanescu, Simona
    Yang, Shuting
    Wang, Xueli
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Dutra, Emanuel
    Baldasano, Jose M.
    Bintanja, Richard
    Bougeault, Philippe
    Caballero, Rodrigo
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    Christensen, Jens H.
    van den Hurk, Bart
    Jimenez, Pedro
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kållberg, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    McGrath, Ray
    Miranda, Pedro
    Van Noije, Twan
    Palmer, Tim
    Parodi, Jose A.
    Schmith, Torben
    Selten, Frank
    Storelvmo, Trude
    Sterl, Andreas
    Tapamo, Honore
    Vancoppenolle, Martin
    Viterbo, Pedro
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    EC-Earth A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action2010In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 91, no 10, p. 1357-1363Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 148. Hedelin, Beatrice
    et al.
    Evers, Mariele
    Alkan-Olsson, Johanna
    Jonsson, Anna
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Participatory modelling for sustainable development: Key issues derived from five cases of natural resource and disaster risk management2017In: Environmental Science and Policy, ISSN 1462-9011, E-ISSN 1873-6416, Vol. 76, p. 185-196Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 149. Heino, R
    et al.
    Brazdil, R
    Forland, E
    Tuomenvirta, H
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Beniston, M
    Pfister, C
    Rebetez, M
    Rosenhagen, G
    Rosner, S
    Wibig, J
    Progress in the study of climatic extremes in northern and central Europe1999In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 42, no 1, p. 151-181Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A study of the long-term changes of various climatic extremes was made jointly by a number of European countries. It was found that the changes in maximum and minimum temperatures follow, in broad terms, the corresponding well-documented mean temperature changes. Minimum temperatures, however, have increased slightly more than maximum temperatures, although both have increased. As a result, the study confirms that the diurnal temperature range has mostly decreased during the present century in Northern and Central Europe. Frost has become less frequent. Two extreme-related precipitation characteristics, the annual maximum daily precipitation and the number of days with precipitation greater than or equal to 10 mm, show no major trends or changes in their interannual variability. An analysis of return periods indicated that in the Nordic countries there were high frequencies of 'extraordinary' 1-day rainfalls both in the 1930s and since the 1980s. There have been no long-term changes in the number of high wind speeds in the German Eight. Occurrences of thunderstorms and hails show a decreasing tendency in the Czech Republic during the last 50 years. Finally, using proxy data sources, a 500-year temperature and precipitation event graph for the Swiss Mittelland is presented. It shows large interdecadal variations as well as the exceptionality of the latest decade 1986-1995.

  • 150. Hell, Benjamin
    et al.
    Broman, Barry
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jakobsson, Lars
    Jakobsson, Martin
    Magnusson, Ake
    Wiberg, Patrik
    The Use of Bathymetric Data in Society and Science: A Review from the Baltic Sea2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 2, p. 138-150Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Bathymetry, the underwater topography, is a fundamental property of oceans, seas, and lakes. As such it is important for a wide range of applications, like physical oceanography, marine geology, geophysics and biology or the administration of marine resources. The exact requirements users may have regarding bathymetric data are, however, unclear. Here, the results of a questionnaire survey and a literature review are presented, concerning the use of Baltic Sea bathymetric data in research and for societal needs. It is demonstrated that there is a great need for detailed bathymetric data. Despite the abundance of high-quality bathymetric data that are produced for safety of navigation purposes, the digital bathymetric models publicly available to date cannot satisfy this need. Our study shows that DBMs based on data collected for safety of navigation could substantially improve the base data for administrative decision making as well as the possibilities for marine research in the Baltic Sea.

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