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  • 10. Jiang, Xianan
    et al.
    Waliser, Duane E.
    Xavier, Prince K.
    Petch, Jon
    Klingaman, Nicholas P.
    Woolnough, Steven J.
    Guan, Bin
    Bellon, Gilles
    Crueger, Traute
    DeMott, Charlotte
    Hannay, Cecile
    Lin, Hai
    Hu, Wenting
    Kim, Daehyun
    Lappen, Cara-Lyn
    Lu, Mong-Ming
    Ma, Hsi-Yen
    Miyakawa, Tomoki
    Ridout, James A.
    Schubert, Siegfried D.
    Scinocca, John
    Seo, Kyong-Hwan
    Shindo, Eiki
    Song, Xiaoliang
    Stan, Cristiana
    Tseng, Wan-Ling
    Wang, Wanqiu
    Wu, Tongwen
    Wu, Xiaoqing
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Zhang, Guang J.
    Zhu, Hongyan
    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations2015Inngår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 120, nr 10, s. 4718-4748Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

  • 11. Bellucci, A.
    et al.
    Haarsma, R.
    Gualdi, S.
    Athanasiadis, P. J.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Cassou, C.
    Fernandez, E.
    Germe, A.
    Jungclaus, J.
    Kroeger, J.
    Matei, D.
    Mueller, W.
    Pohlmann, H.
    Salas y Melia, D.
    Sanchez, E.
    Smith, D.
    Terray, L.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, S.
    An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions2015Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 44, nr 9-10, s. 2787-2806Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction experiments, performed in the framework of the EU-funded COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) Project following the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocol is examined. The ensemble combines a variety of dynamical models, initialization and perturbation strategies, as well as data assimilation products employed to constrain the initial state of the system. Taking advantage of the multi-model approach, several aspects of decadal climate predictions are assessed, including predictive skill, impact of the initialization strategy and the level of uncertainty characterizing the predicted fluctuations of key climate variables. The present analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current generation of climate models adequately initialized have significant skill in predicting years ahead not only the anthropogenic warming but also part of the internal variability of the climate system. An important finding is that the multi-model ensemble mean does generally outperform the individual forecasts, a well-documented result for seasonal forecasting, supporting the need to extend the multi-model framework to real-time decadal predictions in order to maximize the predictive capabilities of currently available decadal forecast systems. The multi-model perspective did also allow a more robust assessment of the impact of the initialization strategy on the quality of decadal predictions, providing hints of an improved forecast skill under full-value (with respect to anomaly) initialization in the near-term range, over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region. Finally, the consistency across the different model predictions was assessed. Specifically, different systems reveal a general agreement in predicting the near-term evolution of surface temperatures, displaying positive correlations between different decadal hindcasts over most of the global domain.

  • 12.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Brodeau, Laurent
    Graversen, Rune Grand
    Karlsson, Johannes
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth2013Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 40, nr 11-12, s. 2719-2743Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic climate change is analyzed in an ensemble of future projection simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earth simulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relatively well but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea ice thickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-first century, the results show a continuation and strengthening of the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades, which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate, especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The annually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperature increases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in the Barents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced in winter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arctic winter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios and disappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free in September in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reduction event without recovery around year 2060. Taking into account the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century, our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic in September around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronounced in the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to the most dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heat fluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantially decreased. The meridional heat flux into the Arctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in the ocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhanced heat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes to the large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in this region. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to more freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most of the additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean while the total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.

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