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  • 1.
    Edman, Moa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    The Swedish Coastal zone Model (SCM)2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    SMHI develops and maintains a model system for water quality calculations in coastal zone waters around Sweden. It is called the Swedish Coastal zone Model (SCM) and has previously been presented in Sahlberg (2009). Since that report was published the model has been further developed and it is now also used in scientific research. This now calls for an updated report.The SCM is a coupled 1-dimensional physical and biogeochemical model. The model calculates the vertical profiles of all its variables and assumes that they are horizontally homogeneous in the studied area. In order to resolve horizontal variations, a region is divided into several smaller sub-regions, called basins, connected by sounds. Through these sound connections both water and mass of different constituents are exchanged. The basins in SCM are identical to the national water bodies defined in accordance with the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The vertical resolution is half a metre in the uppermost layers, one metre in the 4-70 m interval, and two metres between 70-100 m. Below 100 m the layer thickness increases to 5 m and to 10 m below 250 m.The physical part of SCM consists of the equation solver Program for Boundary Layers in the Environment (PROBE, Svensson (1998)), but also several subroutines which calculates, e.g., insolation, ice-cover, and the exchanges between basins. The exchanges that connect the modelled basins are assumed to be governed by baroclinic and barotropic pressure gradient between the coupled basins.The biogeochemical model is the Swedish Coastal Ocean BIogeochemical model (SCOBI, Marmefelt et al. (2000)). SCOBI is a process-oriented model that includes marine nitrogen, phosphorous and oxygen dynamics, as well as a simple representation of plankton dynamics typical for the Baltic Sea. It calculates 11 variables: zooplankton, three functional phytoplankton groups, detritus, nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, oxygen, benthic nitrogen and benthic phosphorus. SCOBI uses the O2 variable to also, indirectly, model H2S. H2S is represented as a negative oxygen concentration, i.e. the oxygen needed to oxidize a certain accumulated H2S concentration, which can also be considered as an oxygen debt.The mixing and advection of the nine pelagic biogeochemical variables are calculated by PROBE, while SCOBI calculates the process rates which decide how matter is exchanged between the 11 biogeochemical variables, and also the vertical transfers between the SCM’s grid cells due to the sinking of phytoplankton and detritus, i.e. sedimentation.SCM needs input data from the atmosphere (weather variables and deposition on nitrogen and phosphorus), from land (land run-off and point sources, e.g. sewage treatment plant and industries) and also from the open ocean.The model is part of the Swedish water management, but it is also used within research project which results in peer reviewed scientific publications.

  • 2.
    Schöld, Sofie
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Gudmundsson, Ingrid
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lind, Lisa
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Jönsson, Anette
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Breviere, Emilie
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hur kan Sverige rusta för stigande hav?: Sammanfattning och slutsatser från Workshop on Sea Level Rise; IPCC SROCC Science and Planning for Climate Adaptation2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I november 2019 arrangerade SMHI en workshop på temat stigande havsnivåer. Deltog gjorde bland annat representanter från nationella och internationella myndigheter, kommuner, universitet och forskningsinstitut. Under workshoppen diskuterades den senaste forskningen inom området, kopplat till klimatanpassning och samhällsplanering för stigande havsnivåer. Inbjudna föreläsare berättade om klimatanpassning i Skandinavien och om det aktuella kunskapsläget.Workshoppens syfte var att diskutera FN:s klimatpanels specialrapport ”Havet och kryosfären i ett förändrat klimat”, att identifiera de utmaningar och behov som olika samhällsaktörer stöter på i arbetet med stigande havsnivåer, samt att hitta möjliga vägar framåt för att möta dessa. Under workshoppen hölls diskussioner på olika teman, bland annat strategier för klimatanpassning och metoder för att skatta extrema högvattenhändelser i ett framtida klimat. Vid ett rundabordssamtal diskuterades behov av riktlinjer, information och kunskapsunderlag i relation till havsnivåfrågan.Deltagarna var eniga om att kunskap om osäkerheter kopplat till framtida havsnivåer och högvattenhändelser är av stor vikt för att klimatplanering ska kunna genomföras på ett robust sätt. Projektioner för havsnivåhöjning på en längre tidshorisont än 2100 lyftes också fram som något som bör belysas i syfte att tydliggöra vikten av utsläppsminskning och långsiktig planering. Annat som diskuterades var behovet av en fortlöpande dialog mellan aktörer som arbetar med att ta fram riktlinjer och kunskapsunderlag, samt att man måste hitta strategier för att hantera det faktum att den vetenskapliga informationen om klimatförändringarna både innehåller osäkerheter och är i ständig utveckling.I rapportens avslutande kapitel ger SMHI exempel på hur vi skulle kunna bidra till att uppfylla de identifierade behoven och möta de utmaningar som samhället står inför när havet stiger längs våra kuster.SMHI vill rikta ett särskilt tack till Anders Rimne, Anna Wåhlin, Carlo Sass Sørensen, Cathrine Andersen, Gunnel Göransson, Kristian Breili, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roderik Van de Wal och Sönke Dangendorf som höll presentationer under workshoppen. Vi vill även tacka alla som deltog och bidrog till intressanta diskussioner och värdefulla insikter.

  • 3.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Nycander, Jonas
    Interannual Variability of the Overturning and Energy Transport in the Atmosphere and Ocean During the Late Twentieth Century with Implications for Precipitation and Sea Level2020In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 33, no 1, p. 317-338Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Väli, Germo
    et al.
    Tallinn University of Technology, Department of Marine Systems.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Placke, Manja
    Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research (IOW).
    River runoff forcing for ocean modeling withinthe Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Project2019Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Project (BMIP) aims to study different processes in the Baltic Sea using numerical models from different institutes and groups forced by the same atmospheric and freshwater forcing. In this report a description and an overview about the common freshwater forcing for the period 1961-2018 is given. Originally based on the hydrological model E-HYPE, the BMIP forcing is compiled from the available observations (Neva river), historical reconstruction and hydrological model simulations (hindcast and forecast simulations by the E-HYPE). The final homogenized dataset has daily resolution in freshwater discharge from 91 locations in the Baltic Sea region and is in good agreement with previously available datasets.

  • 5. Skyllas, Nomikos
    et al.
    Bintanja, Richard
    Buma, Anita G. J.
    Brussaard, Corina P. D.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    van de Poll, Willem H.
    Validation of Stratification-Driven Phytoplankton Biomass and Nutrient Concentrations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean as Simulated by EC-Earth2019In: GEOSCIENCES, ISSN 2076-3263, Vol. 9, no 10, article id 450Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6. Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Changes of the overturning of a fjord-type estuary in a warmer climate, a test case in the Northern Baltic sea2019In: Continental Shelf Research, ISSN 0278-4343, E-ISSN 1873-6955, Vol. 191, article id 104007Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios - Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity2019In: Ocean Science, ISSN 1812-0784, E-ISSN 1812-0792, Vol. 15, no 6, p. 1399-1418Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 8. Carstensen, Jacob
    et al.
    Conley, Daniel J.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Asmala, Eero
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Camilla
    Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina
    Janas, Urzsula
    Norkko, Alf
    Slomp, Caroline
    Villnaes, Anna
    Voss, Maren
    Zilius, Mindaugas
    Factors regulating the coastal nutrient filter in the Baltic Sea2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9. Raudsepp, Urmas
    et al.
    Uiboupin, Rivo
    Maljutenko, Ilja
    Hendricks, Stefan
    Ricker, Robert
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Iovino, Doroteaciro
    Peterson, K. Andrew
    Zuo, Hao
    Lavergne, Thomas
    Aaboe, Signe
    Raj, Roshin P.
    Combined analysis of Cryosat-2/SMOS sea ice thickness data with model reanalysis fields over the Baltic Sea2019In: Journal of operational oceanography. Publisher: The Institute of Marine Engineering, Science & Technology, ISSN 1755-876X, E-ISSN 1755-8778, Vol. 12, p. S73-+Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10. Akhtar, Naveed
    et al.
    Krug, Amelie
    Brauch, Jennifer
    Arsouze, Thomas
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Ahrens, Bodo
    European marginal seas in a regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model and their impact on Vb-cyclones and associated precipitation2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 9-10, p. 5967-5984Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11.
    Groger, Matthias
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Summer hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak projected in an ensemble of climate scenarios downscaled with a coupled regional ocean-sea ice-atmosphere model2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 9-10, p. 5945-5966Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Radtke, Hagen
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1362-1376Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13. Bauer, Barbara
    et al.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Hyytiainen, Kari
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Mueller-Karulis, Baerbel
    Saraiva, Sofia
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1337-1349Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Algotsson, Josefina
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Förslag till statusklassning av parameter 9.5 Sötvatteninflöde och vattenutbyte i kustvatten och vatten i övergångszon: En jämförelse mellan Kustzonsmodellens naturliga och normala uppsättning2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Around half of Sweden's electricity generation consists of hydropower, which is produced in about 2000 power plants. The largest drainage of water from land takes place during the spring and the water is stored in reservoirs for electricity production during the winter. This change in the natural runoff has major effects on the aquatic ecosystems and is considered to be one of the biggest environmental challenges for Swedish waterways and lakes.There is currently no guidance for status classification of hydromorphological parameters in coastal waters according to the Water Framework Directive. SMHI was commissioned by the water authorities to produce a proposal for class boundaries and classification for parameter 9.5 Freshwater inflow and water exchange in coastal water and water in transition zone in accordance with the regulations stated by the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management in the document HVMFS 2013:19. The hydrological model S-HYPE and the oceanographic Coastal Zone Model were used to study the changes in fresh water supply as well as fresh water content, salinity and water age of the surface water caused by regulation of water flow on land.In general, the regulation of water flow on land has led to an increase in the fresh water content by 2% along the Norrlands coast and a corresponding decrease in the fresh water content on the west coast. Typically, the regulation of water on land leads to a lower freshwater supply to the coast during spring and summer and a higher freshwater supply to the coast in the autumn and winter compared to a scenario with a natural land runoff.The natural background variation, as defined by ± 2 MAD (Median Absolute Deviation), and the Maximum Absolute Deviation, MAA, were used to construct 5 status classes.

  • 15. Kniebusch, Madline
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Radtke, Hagen
    Changing Salinity Gradients in the Baltic Sea As a Consequence of Altered Freshwater Budgets2019In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 46, no 16, p. 9739-9747Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hieronymus, Fredrik
    On the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Regression Problems in Sea Level Studies2019In: Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, ISSN 0739-0572, E-ISSN 1520-0426, Vol. 36, no 9, p. 1889-1902Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Long sea level records with high temporal resolution are of paramount importance for future coastal protection and adaptation plans. Here we discuss the application of machine learning techniques to some regression problems commonly encountered when analyzing such time series. The performance of artificial neural networks is compared with that of multiple linear regression models on sea level data from the Swedish coast. The neural networks are found to be superior when local sea level forcing is used together with remote sea level forcing and meteorological forcing, whereas the linear models and the neural networks show similar performance when local sea level forcing is excluded. The overall performance of the machine learning algorithms is good, often surpassing that of the much more computationally costly numerical ocean models used at our institute.

  • 17. Kratzer, Susanne
    et al.
    Kyryliuk, Dmytro
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Philipson, Petra
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Synergy of Satellite, In Situ and Modelled Data for Addressing the Scarcity of Water Quality Information for Eutrophication Assessment and Monitoring of Swedish Coastal Waters2019In: Remote Sensing, ISSN 2072-4292, E-ISSN 2072-4292, Vol. 11, no 17Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Monthly CHL-a and Secchi Depth (SD) data derived from the full mission data of the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS; 2002-2012) were analysed along a horizontal transect from the inner Braviken bay and out into the open sea. The CHL-a values were calibrated using an algorithm derived from Swedish lakes. Then, calibrated Chl-a and Secchi Depth (SD) estimates were extracted from MERIS data along the transect and compared to conventional monitoring data as well as to data from the Swedish Coastal zone Model (SCM), providing physico-biogeochemical parameters such as temperature, nutrients, Chlorophyll-a (CHL-a) and Secchi depth (SD). A high negative correlation was observed between satellite-derived CHL-a and SD (rho = -0.91), similar to the in situ relationship established for several coastal gradients in the Baltic proper. We also demonstrate that the validated MERIS-based estimates and data from the SCM showed strong correlations for the variables CHL-a, SD and total nitrogen (TOTN), which improved significantly when analysed on a monthly basis across basins. The relationship between satellite-derived CHL-a and modelled TOTN was also evaluated on a monthly basis using least-square linear regression models. The predictive power of the models was strong for the period May-November (R-2: 0.58-0.87), and the regression algorithm for summer was almost identical to the algorithm generated from in situ data in Himmerfjarden bay. The strong correlation between SD and modelled TOTN confirms that SD is a robust and reliable indicator to evaluate changes in eutrophication in the Baltic proper which can be assessed using remote sensing data. Amongst all three assessed methods, only MERIS CHL-a was able to correctly depict the pattern of phytoplankton phenology that is typical for the Baltic proper. The approach of combining satellite data and physio-biogeochemical models could serve as a powerful tool and value-adding complement to the scarcely available in situ data from national monitoring programs. In particular, satellite data will help to reduce uncertainties in long-term monitoring data due to its improved measurement frequency.

  • 18.
    Stensen, Katarina
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Matti, Bettina
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Rasmusson, Kristina
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Modellstudie för att undersöka åtgärdersom påverkar lågflöden: – Delrapport 2 i regeringsuppdrag om åtgärder för att motverkavattenbrist i ytvattentäkter.2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2018 the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI was assigned toperform a study of measures to prevent water scarcity in surface water resources. Thework is ongoing and has been performed stepwise. This is the second report produced sofar. The report presents the results from a pre-study that was performed to evaluate theeffect of different measures on low flows and their potential to prevent water scarcity insurface water resources. The aim of the model study was to build a knowledge basis fordeveloping a tool that can be used to prevent water scarcity in surface water resources.Through the tool, municipalities and other actors in the water sector will be able tosimulate water availability in a catchment area independently.

    The weather has the largest impact on water availability, but there are different measuresthat can prevent water scarcity in surface water resources. The measures are mostlypreventative but some can be used in scarcity situations as well.

    The most effective measure is to use the water storage capacity in lakes and to regulatethem wisely. Obviously, this requires that there are lakes to regulate. In the southern partsof Sweden water availability is often good in wintertime while water scarcity occursduring summertime and at the beginning of fall. Through lake regulation, water can bestored in periods with significant water availability and used in periods when water isneeded. It is common to regulate lakes for hydropower production, but some lakes areregulated for water supply as well. SMHI regards this as an important aspect to considerin areas that are in risk for water scarcity since many permissions for water regulation aregoing to be reconsidered now.

    Measures on ditch, drainage and other watercourses can have a local effect, but it is notlarge enough to affect the low flows on a larger scale. Restoration of wetlands has as wellmostly a local effect since very large areas are required to impact on surface waterresources on a larger scale.

    In areas with significant water extractions, the low flow is affected if these are changed.Often, knowledge on water extraction still is inadequate and it is difficult to exactlycalculate the effect if water extractions are changed. It is also complicated to restrictwater extractions. Measures such as establishing water ponds for irrigation might havepotential provided they are filled during periods of good water availability. The effect ofextractions will then decrease during low flow periods.

    The ongoing work to prevent water scarcity in surface water resources will focus ondeveloping methods for sustainable water management. It is evident that the work withwater resources planning needs to be performed mutually between sectors in a catchmentarea. The tool that will be developed within this project will contribute to that this workcan be performed in a sustainable way.

  • 19.
    Stensen, Katarina
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Krunegård, Aino
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Rasmusson, Kristina
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Matti, Bettina
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Sveriges vattentillgång utifrån perspektivet vattenbrist och torka: – Delrapport 1 i regeringsuppdrag om åtgärder för att motverka vattenbrist i ytvattentäkter.2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report, the concept of drought in Sweden as well as the causes is discussed. Thereport also discusses the spatial variability of water resources in Sweden.

    Water shortage is when the demand for water surpasses the water available. It is thereforevery much dependent on the water usage.

    Climate change causes higher temperature and a warmer Sweden thus affecting wateravailability. In general both temperature and precipitation are expected to increase inwintertime leading to more water available during winters. However, higher temperaturesduring summers cause a higher evaporation which might lead to less water available insummertime, especially in the southern parts of Sweden. The climate change will increasethe number of extreme rainfall events. The amount of rain during such short-term extremerainfall events is usually much more than the soil´s infiltration capacity thus makingfloodings more common in future. Milder winters change the snow pattern, which inparticular affect rivers in the northern part of the country.

    During the summers 2016–2018, water shortages occurred in some parts of Sweden. Thecauses of water shortages were different for different parts and different years. Howeverit made Sweden to experience some of the impacts of climate change and a warmerclimate. It was an eye opener and showed us the importance of the adaptation to thesenew circumstances.

    Many factors are involved in the water availability. They can however be summarized in3 categories:

    • Climate – temperature and precipitation for example.
    • Storage capacity – how much water an area can store
    • Water usage

    As a country, Sweden has abundant water resources and available fresh water. But watershortage might still occur. Water availability and water usage can vary a lot locally whichmight lead to water shortage in some regions. To cope with water shortages priorities areneeded between different sectors and interests. Many stakeholders need to agree andcompromise on the usage of water.

  • 20. Browny, Nicola Jane
    et al.
    Nilsson, Johan
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arctic Ocean Freshwater Dynamics: Transient Response to Increasing River Runoff and Precipitation2019In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 124, no 7, p. 5205-5219Article in journal (Refereed)
1234567 1 - 20 of 389
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