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  • 1. Alfieri, Lorenzo
    et al.
    Bisselink, Berny
    Dottori, Francesco
    Naumann, Gustavo
    de Roo, Ad
    Salamon, Peter
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Feyen, Luc
    Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world2017Inngår i: Earth's Future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 5, nr 2, s. 171-182Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 2. Bellucci, A.
    et al.
    Haarsma, R.
    Gualdi, S.
    Athanasiadis, P. J.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Cassou, C.
    Fernandez, E.
    Germe, A.
    Jungclaus, J.
    Kroeger, J.
    Matei, D.
    Mueller, W.
    Pohlmann, H.
    Salas y Melia, D.
    Sanchez, E.
    Smith, D.
    Terray, L.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, S.
    An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions2015Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 44, nr 9-10, s. 2787-2806Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction experiments, performed in the framework of the EU-funded COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) Project following the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocol is examined. The ensemble combines a variety of dynamical models, initialization and perturbation strategies, as well as data assimilation products employed to constrain the initial state of the system. Taking advantage of the multi-model approach, several aspects of decadal climate predictions are assessed, including predictive skill, impact of the initialization strategy and the level of uncertainty characterizing the predicted fluctuations of key climate variables. The present analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current generation of climate models adequately initialized have significant skill in predicting years ahead not only the anthropogenic warming but also part of the internal variability of the climate system. An important finding is that the multi-model ensemble mean does generally outperform the individual forecasts, a well-documented result for seasonal forecasting, supporting the need to extend the multi-model framework to real-time decadal predictions in order to maximize the predictive capabilities of currently available decadal forecast systems. The multi-model perspective did also allow a more robust assessment of the impact of the initialization strategy on the quality of decadal predictions, providing hints of an improved forecast skill under full-value (with respect to anomaly) initialization in the near-term range, over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region. Finally, the consistency across the different model predictions was assessed. Specifically, different systems reveal a general agreement in predicting the near-term evolution of surface temperatures, displaying positive correlations between different decadal hindcasts over most of the global domain.

  • 3. Betts, Richard A.
    et al.
    Alfieri, Lorenzo
    Bradshaw, Catherine
    Caesar, John
    Feyen, Luc
    Friedlingstein, Pierre
    Gohar, Laila
    Koutroulis, Aristeidis
    Lewis, Kirsty
    Morfopoulos, Catherine
    Papadimitriou, Lamprini
    Richardson, Katy J.
    Tsanis, Ioannis
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model2018Inngår i: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 376, nr 2119, artikkel-id 20160452Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 4. Boe, Julien
    et al.
    Terray, Laurent
    Moine, Marie-Pierre
    Valcke, Sophie
    Bellucci, Alessio
    Drijfhout, Sybren
    Haarsma, Rein
    Lohmann, Katja
    Putrasahan, Dian A.
    Roberts, Chris
    Roberts, Malcom
    Scoccimarro, Enrico
    Seddon, Jon
    Senan, Retish
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation2020Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 15, nr 8, artikkel-id 084038Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 5. Cao, Ning
    et al.
    Zhang, Qiong
    Power, Katherine Elizabeth
    Schenk, Frederik
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Haijun
    The role of internal feedbacks in sustaining multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation revealed by EC-Earth3-LR simulations2023Inngår i: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, ISSN 0012-821X, E-ISSN 1385-013X, Vol. 621, artikkel-id 118372Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    The role of internal feedbacks in sustaining multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation revealed by EC-Earth3-LR simulations
  • 6. Docquier, D.
    et al.
    Vannitsem, S.
    Ragone, F.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Liang, X. S.
    Causal Links Between Arctic Sea Ice and Its Potential Drivers Based on the Rate of Information Transfer2022Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 49, nr 9, artikkel-id e2021GL095892Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Causal Links Between Arctic Sea Ice and Its Potential Drivers Based on the Rate of Information Transfer
  • 7.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Acosta, Mario
    Alessandri, Andrea
    Anthoni, Peter
    Arsouze, Thomas
    Bergman, Tommi
    Bernardello, Raffaele
    Boussetta, Souhail
    Caron, Louis-Philippe
    Carver, Glenn
    Castrillo, Miguel
    Catalano, Franco
    Cvijanovic, Ivana
    Davini, Paolo
    Dekker, Evelien
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
    Docquier, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Echevarria, Pablo
    Fladrich, Uwe
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hardenberg, Jost, V
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Karami, Pasha
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Keskinen, Jukka-Pekka
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Makkonen, Risto
    Massonnet, Francois
    Menegoz, Martin
    Miller, Paul A.
    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo
    Nieradzik, Lars
    van Noije, Twan
    Nolan, Paul
    O'Donnell, Declan
    Ollinaho, Pirkka
    van den Oord, Gijs
    Ortega, Pablo
    Tinto Prims, Oriol
    Ramos, Arthur
    Reerink, Thomas
    Rousset, Clement
    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan
    Le Sager, Philippe
    Schmith, Torben
    Schrodner, Roland
    Serva, Federico
    Sicardi, Valentina
    Madsen, Marianne Sloth
    Smith, Benjamin
    Tian, Tian
    Tourigny, Etienne
    Uotila, Petteri
    Vancoppenolle, Martin
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Warlind, David
    Willen, Ulrika
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    Yepes-Arbos, Xavier
    Zhang, Qiong
    The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 62022Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 15, nr 7, s. 2973-3020Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
  • 8.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Qian, Minwei
    Redler, Ren
    Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model2010Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 34, nr 7-8, s. 1157-1176Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.

  • 9. Dosio, Alessandro
    et al.
    Mentaschi, Lorenzo
    Fischer, Erich M.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Extreme heat waves under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 5, artikkel-id 054006Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 10. Fiedler, Stephanie
    et al.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Rogelj, Joeri
    van Noije, Twan
    Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery2021Inngår i: Atmospheric research, ISSN 0169-8095, E-ISSN 1873-2895, Vol. 264, artikkel-id 105866Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery
  • 11.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Docquier, David
    Graef, Federico
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Exploring the influence of the North Pacific Rossby wave sources on the variability of summer atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere2022Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Exploring the influence of the North Pacific Rossby wave sources on the variability of summer atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere
  • 12. Haarsma, Rein
    et al.
    Acosta, Mario
    Bakhshi, Rena
    Bretonniere, Pierre-Antoine
    Caron, Louis-Philippe
    Castrillo, Miguel
    Corti, Susanna
    Davini, Paolo
    Exarchou, Eleftheria
    Fabiano, Federico
    Fladrich, Uwe
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Garcia-Serrano, Javier
    von Hardenberg, Jost
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Levine, Xavier
    Meccia, Virna Loana
    van Noije, Twan
    van den Oord, Gijs
    Palmeiro, Froila M.
    Rodrigo, Mario
    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan
    Le Sager, Philippe
    Tourigny, Etienne
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    van Weele, Michiel
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR - description, model computational performance and basic validation2020Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 13, nr 8, s. 3507-3527Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth
  • 13.
    Hansen, Felicitas
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Belušić, Danijel
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble2023Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation tn the SMHI large ensemble
  • 14. Hazeleger, W.
    et al.
    Guemas, V.
    Wouters, B.
    Corti, S.
    Andreu-Burillo, I.
    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies2013Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, nr 9, s. 1794-1798Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Multiyear climate predictions with two initialization strategies are systematically assessed in the EC-Earth V2.3 climate model. In one ensemble, an estimate of the observed climate state is used to initialize the model. The other uses estimates of observed ocean and sea ice anomalies on top of the model climatology. The ensembles show similar spatial characteristics of drift related to the biases in control simulations. As expected, the drift is less with anomaly initialization. The full field initialization overshoots to a colder state which is related to cold biases in the tropics and North Atlantic, associated with oceanic processes. Despite different amplitude of the drift, both ensembles show similar skill in multiyear global temperature predictions, but regionally differences are found. On multiyear time scales, initialization with observations enhances both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores in the North Atlantic. The probabilistic verification shows skill over the European continent.

  • 15. Hazeleger, W.
    et al.
    Wang, X.
    Severijns, C.
    Stefanescu, S.
    Bintanja, R.
    Sterl, A.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Semmler, T.
    Yang, S.
    van den Hurk, B.
    van Noije, T.
    van der Linden, E.
    van der Wiel, K.
    EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model2012Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, nr 11, s. 2611-2629Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    EC-Earth, a new Earth system model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is presented. The performance of version 2.2 (V2.2) of the model is compared to observations, reanalysis data and other coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice models. The large-scale physical characteristics of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice are well simulated. When compared to other coupled models with similar complexity, the model performs well in simulating tropospheric fields and dynamic variables, and performs less in simulating surface temperature and fluxes. The surface temperatures are too cold, with the exception of the Southern Ocean region and parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The main patterns of interannual climate variability are well represented. Experiments with enhanced CO2 concentrations show well-known responses of Arctic amplification, land-sea contrasts, tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. The global climate sensitivity of the current version of EC-Earth is slightly less than 1 K/(W m(-2)). An intensification of the hydrological cycle is found and strong regional changes in precipitation, affecting monsoon characteristics. The results show that a coupled model based on an operational seasonal prediction system can be used for climate studies, supporting emerging seamless prediction strategies.

  • 16. Hazeleger, Wilco
    et al.
    Severijns, Camiel
    Semmler, Tido
    Stefanescu, Simona
    Yang, Shuting
    Wang, Xueli
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dutra, Emanuel
    Baldasano, Jose M.
    Bintanja, Richard
    Bougeault, Philippe
    Caballero, Rodrigo
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    Christensen, Jens H.
    van den Hurk, Bart
    Jimenez, Pedro
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Kållberg, Per
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    McGrath, Ray
    Miranda, Pedro
    Van Noije, Twan
    Palmer, Tim
    Parodi, Jose A.
    Schmith, Torben
    Selten, Frank
    Storelvmo, Trude
    Sterl, Andreas
    Tapamo, Honore
    Vancoppenolle, Martin
    Viterbo, Pedro
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    EC-Earth A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action2010Inngår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 91, nr 10, s. 1357-1363Artikkel i tidsskrift (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 17.
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    Schwinger, Jorg
    Bernadello, Raffaele
    Tourigny, Etienne
    Sicardi, Valentina
    Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century2024Inngår i: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 21, nr 9, s. 2189-2206Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 18. Jiang, Xianan
    et al.
    Waliser, Duane E.
    Xavier, Prince K.
    Petch, Jon
    Klingaman, Nicholas P.
    Woolnough, Steven J.
    Guan, Bin
    Bellon, Gilles
    Crueger, Traute
    DeMott, Charlotte
    Hannay, Cecile
    Lin, Hai
    Hu, Wenting
    Kim, Daehyun
    Lappen, Cara-Lyn
    Lu, Mong-Ming
    Ma, Hsi-Yen
    Miyakawa, Tomoki
    Ridout, James A.
    Schubert, Siegfried D.
    Scinocca, John
    Seo, Kyong-Hwan
    Shindo, Eiki
    Song, Xiaoliang
    Stan, Cristiana
    Tseng, Wan-Ling
    Wang, Wanqiu
    Wu, Tongwen
    Wu, Xiaoqing
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Zhang, Guang J.
    Zhu, Hongyan
    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations2015Inngår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 120, nr 10, s. 4718-4748Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

  • 19.
    Johansson, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    L'Ecuyer, Tristan
    Vertical structure of cloud radiative heating in the tropics: confronting the EC-Earth v3.3.1/3P model with satellite observations2021Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 14, nr 6, s. 4087-4101Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding the coupling of clouds to large-scale circulation is one of the grand challenges for the global climate research community. In this context, realistically modelling the vertical structure of cloud radiative heating (CRH) and/or cooling in Earth system models is a key premise to understand this coupling. Here, we evaluate CRH in two versions of the European Community Earth System Model (EC-Earth) using retrievals derived from the combined radar and lidar data from the CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellites. One model version is also used with two different horizontal resolutions. Our study evaluates large-scale intraseasonal variability in the vertical structure of CRH and cloud properties and investigates the changes in CRH during different phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a process that dominates the interannual climate variability in the tropics. EC-Earth generally captures both the intraseasonal and meridional pattern of variability in CRH over the convectively active and stratocumulus regions and the CRH during the positive and negative phases of ENSO. However, two key differences between model simulations and satellite retrievals emerge. First, the magnitude of CRH, in the upper troposphere, over the convectively active zones is up to twice as large in the models compared to the satellite data. Further dissection of net CRH into its shortwave and longwave components reveals noticeable differences in their vertical structure. The shortwave component of the radiative heating is overestimated by all model versions in the lower-most troposphere and underestimated in the middle troposphere. These over- and underestimates of shortwave heating are partly compensated by an overestimate of longwave cooling in the lowermost troposphere and heating in the middle troposphere. The biases in CRH can be traced back to disagreement in cloud amount and cloud water content. There is no noticeable improvement of CRH by increasing the horizontal resolution in the model alone. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models with satellite observations that resolve the vertical structure of clouds and cloud properties.

  • 20. Johansson, Mattias
    et al.
    Galle, Bo
    Zhang, Yan
    Rivera, Claudia
    Chen, Deliang
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The dual-beam mini-DOAS technique-measurements of volcanic gas emission, plume height and plume speed with a single instrument2009Inngår i: Bulletin of Volcanology, ISSN 0258-8900, E-ISSN 1432-0819, Vol. 71, nr 7, s. 747-751Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The largest error in determining volcanic gas fluxes using ground based optical remote sensing instruments is typically the determination of the plume speed, and in the case of fixed scanning instruments also the plume height. We here present a newly developed technique capable of measuring plume height, plume speed and gas flux using one single instrument by simultaneously collecting scattered sunlight in two directions. The angle between the two measurement directions is fixed, removing the need for time consuming in-field calibrations. The plume height and gas flux is measured by traversing the plume and the plume speed is measured by performing a stationary measurement underneath the plume. The instrument was tested in a field campaign in May 2005 at Mt. Etna, Italy, where the measured results are compared to wind fields derived from a meso-scale meteorological model (MM5). The test and comparison show that the instrument is functioning and capable of estimating wind speed at the plume height.

  • 21. Jones, Chris D.
    et al.
    Hickman, Jonathan E.
    Rumbold, Steven T.
    Walton, Jeremy
    Lamboll, Robin D.
    Skeie, Ragnhild B.
    Fiedler, Stephanie
    Forster, Piers M.
    Rogelj, Joeri
    Abe, Manabu
    Botzet, Michael
    Calvin, Katherine
    Cassou, Christophe
    Cole, Jason N. S.
    Davini, Paolo
    Deushi, Makoto
    Dix, Martin
    Fyfe, John C.
    Gillett, Nathan P.
    Ilyina, Tatiana
    Kawamiya, Michio
    Kelley, Maxwell
    Kharin, Slava
    Koshiro, Tsuyoshi
    Li, Hongmei
    Mackallah, Chloe
    Mueller, Wolfgang A.
    Nabat, Pierre
    van Noije, Twan
    Nolan, Paul
    Ohgaito, Rumi
    Olivie, Dirk
    Oshima, Naga
    Parodi, Jose
    Reerink, Thomas J.
    Ren, Lili
    Romanou, Anastasia
    Seferian, Roland
    Tang, Yongming
    Timmreck, Claudia
    Tjiputra, Jerry
    Tourigny, Etienne
    Tsigaridis, Kostas
    Wang, Hailong
    Wu, Mingxuan
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    Yang, Yang
    Ziehn, Tilo
    The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP2021Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 48, nr 8, artikkel-id e2020GL091883Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP
  • 22.
    Jones, Colin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model part II: Application to the Arctic climate2004Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, nr 4-5, s. 211-220Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA2) has been integrated over the Arctic Ocean as part of the international ARCMIP project. Results have been compared to observations derived from the SHEBA data set. The standard RCA2 model overpredicts cloud cover and downwelling longwave radiation, during the Arctic winter. This error was improved by introducing a new cloud parameterization, which significantly improves the annual cycle of cloud cover. Compensating biases between clear sky downwelling longwave radiation and longwave radiation emitted from cloud base were identified. Modifications have been introduced to the model radiation scheme that more accurately treat solar radiation interaction with ice crystals. This leads to a more realistic representation of cloud-solar radiation interaction. The clear sky portion of the model radiation code transmits too much solar radiation through the atmosphere, producing a positive bias at the top of the frequent boundary layer clouds. A realistic treatment of the temporally evolving albedo, of both sea-ice and snow, appears crucial for an accurate simulation of the net surface energy budget. Likewise, inclusion of a prognostic snow-surface temperature seems necessary, to accurately simulate near-surface thermodynamic processes in the Arctic.

  • 23.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    USE OF A HIGH-RESOLUTION CLOUD CLIMATE DATA SET FOR VALIDATION OF ROSSBY CENTRE CLIMATE SIMULATIONS2004Inngår i: 2004 EUMETSAT METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE CONFERENCE: Ocean and Climate Observations, EUMETSAT , 2004, s. 465-473Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 24.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Evaluation of regional cloud climate simulations over Scandinavia using a 10-year NOAA advanced very high resolution radiometer cloud climatology2008Inngår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 113, nr D1, artikkel-id D01203Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A satellite-derived (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) cloud climatology over the Scandinavian region covering the period 1991 - 2001 has been used to evaluate the performance of cloud simulations of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA3). Several methods of adapting the satellite and model data sets to allow a meaningful comparison were applied. RCA3-simulated total cloud cover was shown to agree within a few percent of the satellite-retrieved cloud amounts on seasonal and annual timescales. However, a substantial imbalance between the respective RCA3 contributions from low-, medium- and high-level clouds was seen. The differences from satellite-derived contributions were +2.4% for high-level clouds, -5.2% for medium-level clouds and +4.0% for low- level clouds. In addition, an overrepresentation of cloud categories with high optical thicknesses was seen for all vertical cloud groups, particularly during the summer season. Some specific features of the geographical distribution of cloudiness were also noticed. Most pronounced were the excess of cloud amounts over the Scandinavian mountain range and a deficit leeward of the mountains. The overall results imply problems with the RCA3-modeled surface radiation budget components by causing reduced incoming solar radiation and increased downwelling longwave radiation.

  • 25. Keen, Ann
    et al.
    Blockley, Ed
    Bailey, David A.
    Debernard, Jens Boldingh
    Bushuk, Mitchell
    Delhaye, Steve
    Docquier, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Feltham, Daniel
    Massonnet, Francois
    O'Farrell, Siobhan
    Ponsoni, Leandro
    Rodriguez, Jose M.
    Schroeder, David
    Swart, Neil
    Toyoda, Takahiro
    Tsujino, Hiroyuki
    Vancoppenolle, Martin
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models2021Inngår i: The Cryosphere, ISSN 1994-0416, E-ISSN 1994-0424, Vol. 15, nr 2, s. 951-982Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models
  • 26.
    Kjellström, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    Meterologi.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3)2005Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents the latest version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA3, with focus on model improvements since the earlier version, RCA2. The main changes in RCA3 relate to the treatment of land surface processes. Apart from the changes in land surface parameterizations several changes in the calculation of radiation, clouds, condensate and precipitation have been made. The new parameterizations hold a more realistic description of the climate system.Simulated present day climate is evaluated compared to observations. The new model version show equally good, or better, correspondence to observational climatologies as RCA2, when forced by perfect boundary conditions. Seasonal mean temperature errors are generally within ±1oC except during winter in north-western Russia where a larger positive bias is identified. Both the diurnal temperature range and the annual temperature range are found to be underestimated in the model. Precipitation biases are generally smaller than in the corresponding reanalysis data used as boundary conditions, showing the benefit of a higher horizontal resolution.The model is used for the regionalization of two transient global climate change projections for the time period 1961- 2100. The radiative forcing of the climate system is based on observed concentrations of greenhouse gases until 1990 and on the IPCC SRES B2 and A2 emissions scenarios for the remaining time period. Long-term averages as well as measures of the variability around these averages are presented for a number of variables including precipitation and near-surface temperature. It is shown that the changes in variability sometimes differ from the changes in averages. For instance, in north-eastern Europe, the mean increase in wintertime temperatures is followed by an even stronger reduction in the number of very cold days in winter. This kind of performance of the climate system implies that methods of inferring data from climate change projections to other periods than those actually simulated have to be used with care, at least when it comes to variables that are expected to change in a non-linear way. Further, these new regional climate change projections address the whole 21st century.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 27.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Beatty, Christof Konig
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model2012Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 38, nr 11-12, s. 2389-2408Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations.

  • 28.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Brodeau, Laurent
    Graversen, Rune Grand
    Karlsson, Johannes
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth2013Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 40, nr 11-12, s. 2719-2743Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic climate change is analyzed in an ensemble of future projection simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earth simulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relatively well but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea ice thickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-first century, the results show a continuation and strengthening of the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades, which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate, especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The annually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperature increases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in the Barents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced in winter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arctic winter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios and disappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free in September in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reduction event without recovery around year 2060. Taking into account the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century, our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic in September around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronounced in the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to the most dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heat fluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantially decreased. The meridional heat flux into the Arctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in the ocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhanced heat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes to the large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in this region. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to more freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most of the additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean while the total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.

  • 29. Koutroulis, A. G.
    et al.
    Papadimitriou, L. V.
    Grillakis, M. G.
    Tsanis, I. K.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Betts, R. A.
    Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment2018Inngår i: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 613, s. 271-286Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 30. Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
    et al.
    Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.
    Grillakis, Manolis G.
    Tsanis, Ioannis K.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Caesar, John
    Betts, Richard A.
    Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment2018Inngår i: Water, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 10, nr 10, artikkel-id 1331Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 31. Loeb, Norman G.
    et al.
    Wang, Hailan
    Allan, Richard P.
    Andrews, Timothy
    Armour, Kyle
    Cole, Jason N. S.
    Dufresne, Jean-Louis
    Forster, Piers
    Gettelman, Andrew
    Guo, Huan
    Mauritsen, Thorsten
    Ming, Yi
    Paynter, David
    Proistosescu, Cristian
    Stuecker, Malte F.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES2020Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 47, nr 5, artikkel-id e2019GL086705Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    We compare top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes observed by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and simulated by seven general circulation models forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions. In response to increased SSTs along the equator and over the eastern Pacific (EP) following the so-called global warming "hiatus" of the early 21st century, simulated TOA flux changes are remarkably similar to CERES. Both show outgoing shortwave and longwave TOA flux changes that largely cancel over the west and central tropical Pacific, and large reductions in shortwave flux for EP low-cloud regions. A model's ability to represent changes in the relationship between global mean net TOA flux and surface temperature depends upon how well it represents shortwave flux changes in low-cloud regions, with most showing too little sensitivity to EP SST changes, suggesting a "pattern effect" that may be too weak compared to observations.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 32. Lu, Zhengyao
    et al.
    Chen, Deliang
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Olin, Stefan
    Zhang, Qiong
    Wu, Mousong
    Ahlstrom, Anders
    Natural decadal variability of global vegetation growth in relation to major decadal climate modes2023Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 18, nr 1, artikkel-id 014033Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Natural decadal variability of global vegetation growth in relation to major decadal climate modes
  • 33.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Modelling the changing climate of the Baltic Sea.2006Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 34. Miao, J F
    et al.
    Chen, D
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Modelling subgrid scale dry deposition velocity of O-3 over the Swedish west coast with MM5-PX model2006Inngår i: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 40, nr 3, s. 415-429Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) coupled with an advanced land surface model (PX LSM) is used in this study to model high-resolution (2 km) dry deposition velocity of ozone over the Swedish west coast, together with a newly revised dry deposition parameterization for air-quality models with emphasis on non-stomatal resistance. The important air-surface exchange processes for air quality (surface fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum) are also simulated by this model. The modelled subgrid scale variability of the dry deposition velocity and its dependence on land use, terrain height and synoptic conditions are investigated. It is found that a systematic difference in the deposition velocity modelled by different resolutions exists, and the difference varies diurnally and daily. The subgrid scale variation is significant, which has a clear impact on the area-averaged deposition velocity. The deposition velocity depends strongly on land use and weather conditions, but not on topography for the area studied. Meteorological conditions at subgrid scales play an important role in determining the deposition velocity. It is also concluded that the dry deposition velocity simulated in this study is reasonable, and that a 6-km resolution would be practically good enough to resolve the inhomogeneity of the surface properties for dry deposition studies in this area. The variation range of dry deposition velocity over different land use categories and the corresponding resistances are outlined. Moreover, the difference in the estimated dry deposition velocitiy between the methods using fractional land use and using dominant land use is compared. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 35. Miao, J. -F
    et al.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Chen, D.
    Ritchie, H.
    Impacts of boundary layer turbulence and land surface process parameterizations on simulated sea breeze characteristics2009Inngår i: Annales Geophysicae, ISSN 0992-7689, E-ISSN 1432-0576, Vol. 27, nr 6, s. 2303-2320Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the sensitivity of sea breeze (SB) simulations to combinations of boundary-layer turbulence and land-surface process parameterizations implemented in the MM5 mesoscale meteorological mode for an observed SB case over the Swedish west coast. Various combinations from four different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes [Blackadar, Gayno-Seaman (GS), Eta, MRF], and two land surface model (LSM) schemes (SLAB, Noah) with different complexity are designed to simulate a typical SB case over the Swedish west coast. The simulations are conducted using two-way interactively nested grids. Simulated 10-m winds are compared against observed near-surface wind data from the GOTE2001 campaign to examine the diurnal cycle of wind direction and speed for SB timing. The SB (vertical) circulation is also compared in the different experiments. The results show that the different combinations of PBL and LSM parameterization schemes result in different SB timing and vertical circulation characteristics. All experiments predict a delayed SB. The vertical component of the SB circulation varies in the experiments, among which the GS PBL scheme produces the strongest SB circulation. Evident differences between the SLAB and Noah LSMs are also found, especially in maximum of updraft and downdraft velocities of the SB vertical circulation. The results have significant implications for convective initiation, air quality studies and other environmental problems in coastal areas.

  • 36. Naumann, G.
    et al.
    Alfieri, L.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Mentaschi, L.
    Betts, R. A.
    Carrao, H.
    Spinoni, J.
    Vogt, J.
    Feyen, L.
    Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming2018Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, nr 7, s. 3285-3296Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 37.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jansson, Christer
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance2011Inngår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, nr 1, s. 4-23Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 38.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Ullerstig, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: Model description and performance2011Inngår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 63A, nr 1, s. 4-23Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 39. Serva, F.
    et al.
    Christiansen, B.
    Davini, P.
    von Hardenberg, J.
    van den Oord, G.
    Reerink, T. J.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, S.
    Changes in Stratospheric Dynamics Simulated by the EC-Earth Model From CMIP5 to CMIP62024Inngår i: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 16, nr 4, artikkel-id e2023MS003756Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Changes in Stratospheric Dynamics Simulated by the EC-Earth Model From CMIP5 to CMIP6
  • 40.
    Sheldon, Johnston, Marston
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Eliasson, S.
    Eriksson, P.
    Forbes, R. M.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Zelinka, M. D.
    Diagnosing the average spatio-temporal impact of convective systems - Part 1: A methodology for evaluating climate models2013Inngår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 13, nr 23, s. 12043-12058Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    An earlier method to determine the mean response of upper-tropospheric water to localised deep convective systems (DC systems) is improved and applied to the EC-Earth climate model. Following Zelinka and Hartmann (2009), several fields related to moist processes and radiation from various satellites are composited with respect to the local maxima in rain rate to determine their spatio-temporal evolution with deep convection in the central Pacific Ocean. Major improvements to the earlier study are the isolation of DC systems in time so as to prevent multiple sampling of the same event, and a revised definition of the mean background state that allows for better characterisation of the DC-system-induced anomalies. The observed DC systems in this study propagate westward at similar to 4 ms(-1). Both the upper-tropospheric relative humidity and the outgoing longwave radiation are substantially perturbed over a broad horizontal extent and for periods > 30 h. The cloud fraction anomaly is fairly constant with height but small maximum can be seen around 200 hPa. The cloud ice water content anomaly is mostly confined to pressures greater than 150 hPa and reaches its maximum around 450 hPa, a few hours after the peak convection. Consistent with the large increase in upper-tropospheric cloud ice water content, albedo increases dramatically and persists about 30 h after peak convection. Applying the compositing technique to EC-Earth allows an assessment of the model representation of DC systems. The model captures the large-scale responses, most notably for outgoing longwave radiation, but there are a number of important differences. DC systems appear to propagate east-ward in the model, suggesting a strong link to Kelvin waves instead of equatorial Rossby waves. The diurnal cycle in the model is more pronounced and appears to trigger new convection further to the west each time. Finally, the modelled ice water content anomaly peaks at pressures greater than 500 hPa and in the upper troposphere between 250 hPa and 500 hPa, there is less ice than the observations and it does not persist as long after peak convection. The modelled upper-tropospheric cloud fraction anomaly, however, is of a comparable magnitude and exhibits a similar longevity as the observations.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 41. Smith, D. M.
    et al.
    Scaife, A. A.
    Hawkins, E.
    Bilbao, R.
    Boer, G. J.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Caron, L. -P
    Danabasoglu, G.
    Delworth, T.
    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dunstone, N. J.
    Eade, R.
    Hermanson, L.
    Ishii, M.
    Kharin, V.
    Kimoto, M.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Kushnir, Y.
    Matei, D.
    Meehl, G. A.
    Menegoz, M.
    Merryfield, W. J.
    Mochizuki, T.
    Mueller, W. A.
    Pohlmann, H.
    Power, S.
    Rixen, M.
    Sospedra-Alfonso, R.
    Tuma, M.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, X.
    Yeager, S.
    Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 degrees C2018Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, nr 21, s. 11895-11903Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 42. Smith, Doug M.
    et al.
    Scaife, Adam A.
    Boer, George J.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
    Guemas, Virginie
    Hawkins, Ed
    Hazeleger, Wilco
    Hermanson, Leon
    Ho, Chun Kit
    Ishii, Masayoshi
    Kharin, Viatcheslav
    Kimoto, Masahide
    Kirtman, Ben
    Lean, Judith
    Matei, Daniela
    Merryfield, William J.
    Mueller, Wolfgang A.
    Pohlmann, Holger
    Rosati, Anthony
    Wouters, Bert
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions2013Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 41, nr 11-12, s. 2875-2888Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Nia in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Nia. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Nio3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 A degrees C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

  • 43. Sterl, Andreas
    et al.
    Bintanja, Richard
    Brodeau, Laurent
    Gleeson, Emily
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Schmith, Torben
    Semmler, Tido
    Severijns, Camiel
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    A look at the ocean in the EC-Earth climate model2012Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, nr 11, s. 2631-2657Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    EC-Earth is a newly developed global climate system model. Its core components are the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as the atmosphere component and the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) developed by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) as the ocean component. Both components are used with a horizontal resolution of roughly one degree. In this paper we describe the performance of NEMO in the coupled system by comparing model output with ocean observations. We concentrate on the surface ocean and mass transports. It appears that in general the model has a cold and fresh bias, but a much too warm Southern Ocean. While sea ice concentration and extent have realistic values, the ice tends to be too thick along the Siberian coast. Transports through important straits have realistic values, but generally are at the lower end of the range of observational estimates. Exceptions are very narrow straits (Gibraltar, Bering) which are too wide due to the limited resolution. Consequently the modelled transports through them are too high. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is also at the lower end of observational estimates. The interannual variability of key variables and correlations between them are realistic in size and pattern. This is especially true for the variability of surface temperature in the tropical Pacific (El Nio). Overall the ocean component of EC-Earth performs well and helps making EC-Earth a reliable climate model.

  • 44. Tebaldi, Claudia
    et al.
    Debeire, Kevin
    Eyring, Veronika
    Fischer, Erich
    Fyfe, John
    Friedlingstein, Pierre
    Knutti, Reto
    Lowe, Jason
    O'Neill, Brian
    Sanderson, Benjamin
    van Vuuren, Detlef
    Riahi, Keywan
    Meinshausen, Malte
    Nicholls, Zebedee
    Tokarska, Katarzyna B.
    Hurtt, George
    Kriegler, Elmar
    Lamarque, Jean-Francois
    Meehl, Gerald
    Moss, Richard
    Bauer, Susanne E.
    Boucher, Olivier
    Brovkin, Victor
    Byun, Young-Hwa
    Dix, Martin
    Gualdi, Silvio
    Guo, Huan
    John, Jasmin G.
    Kharin, Slava
    Kim, YoungHo
    Koshiro, Tsuyoshi
    Ma, Libin
    Olivie, Dirk
    Panickal, Swapna
    Qiao, Fangli
    Rong, Xinyao
    Rosenbloom, Nan
    Schupfner, Martin
    Seferian, Roland
    Sellar, Alistair
    Semmler, Tido
    Shi, Xiaoying
    Song, Zhenya
    Steger, Christian
    Stouffer, Ronald
    Swart, Neil
    Tachiiri, Kaoru
    Tang, Qi
    Tatebe, Hiroaki
    Voldoire, Aurore
    Volodin, Evgeny
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Xin, Xiaoge
    Yang, Shuting
    Yu, Yongqiang
    Ziehn, Tilo
    Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP62021Inngår i: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 12, nr 1, s. 253-293Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
  • 45.
    Thomas, Manu
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Roberts, Malcolm
    Roberts, Christopher
    Lohmann, Katja
    A statistical and process-oriented evaluation of cloud radiative effects in high-resolution global models2019Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 12, nr 4, s. 1679-1702Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 46.
    Thomas, Manu
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
    L'Ecuyer, Tristan
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Snowfall distribution and its response to the Arctic Oscillation: an evaluation of HighResMIP models in the Arctic using CPR/CloudSat observations2019Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 12, nr 8, s. 3759-3772Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 47. Tjernstrom, M
    et al.
    Zagar, M
    Svensson, G
    Cassano, J J
    Pfeifer, S
    Rinke, A
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dethloff, K
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Semmler, T
    Shaw, M
    Modelling the arctic boundary layer: An evaluation of six arcmip regional-scale models using data from the Sheba project2005Inngår i: Boundary-layer Meteorology, ISSN 0006-8314, E-ISSN 1573-1472, Vol. 117, nr 2, s. 337-381Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A primary climate change signal in the central Arctic is the melting of sea ice. This is dependent on the interplay between the atmosphere and the sea ice, which is critically dependent on the exchange of momentum, heat and moisture at the surface. In assessing the realism of climate change scenarios it is vital to know the quality by which these exchanges are modelled in climate simulations. Six state-of-the-art regional-climate models are run for one year in the western Arctic, on a common domain that encompasses the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment ice-drift track. Surface variables, surface fluxes and the vertical structure of the lower troposphere are evaluated using data from the SHEBA experiment. All the models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions, sea-ice fraction and sea and sea-ice surface temperatures. Surface pressure, near-surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed agree well with observations, with a falling degree of accuracy in that order. Wind speeds have systematic biases in some models, by as much as a few metres per second. The surface radiation fluxes are also surprisingly accurate, given the complexity of the problem. The turbulent momentum flux is acceptable, on average, in most models, but the turbulent heat fluxes are, however, mostly unreliable. Their correlation with observed fluxes is, in principle, insignificant, and they accumulate over a year to values an order of magnitude larger than observed. Typical instantaneous errors are easily of the same order of magnitude as the observed net atmospheric heat flux. In the light of the sensitivity of the atmosphere-ice interaction to errors in these fluxes, the ice-melt in climate change scenarios must be viewed with considerable caution.

  • 48. Tjernström, M.
    et al.
    Zagar, M.
    Svensson, G.
    Dethloff, K.
    Rinke, A.
    Cassano, J.
    Pfeifer, S.
    Semmler, T.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    The Arctic boundary-layer in six different RCM compared to SHEBA observations (ARCMIP).2005Inngår i: Extended abstracts of a WMO/WCRP-sponsored Regional-Scale Climate Modelling Workshop [Elektronisk resurs] : high-resolution climate modelling : assessment, added value and applications, Lund, Sweden, 29 March-2 April 2004 / [ed] Lars Bärring & René Laprise, Lund: Department of Physical Geography & Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University , 2005, s. 44-45Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 49. van Noije, Twan
    et al.
    Bergman, Tommi
    Le Sager, Philippe
    O'Donnell, Declan
    Makkonen, Risto
    Goncalves-Ageitos, Maria
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Fladrich, Uwe
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    von Hardenberg, Jost
    Keskinen, Jukka-Pekka
    Korhonen, Hannele
    Laakso, Anton
    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios
    Ollinaho, Pirkka
    Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez
    Reerink, Thomas
    Schrodner, Roland
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP62021Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 14, nr 9, s. 5637-5668Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6
  • 50.
    Wang, Shiyu
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Sensitivity of seasonal circulation response to snow reduction in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia and its impact on Eurasian climate2023Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Sensitivity of seasonal circulation response to snow reduction in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia and its impact on Eurasian climate
12 1 - 50 of 59
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