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  • 1. Iliopoulou, Theano
    et al.
    Aguilar, Cristina
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bermudez, Maria
    Bezak, Nejc
    Ficchi, Andrea
    Koutsoyiannis, Demetris
    Parajka, Juraj
    Jose Polo, Maria
    Thirel, Guillaume
    Montanari, Alberto
    A large sample analysis of European rivers on seasonal river flow correlation and its physical drivers2019In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 23, no 1, p. 73-91Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2. Hankin, Barry
    et al.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Burgess, Chris
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bielby, Sally
    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz
    Pope, Linda
    A New National Water Quality Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Catchment Management Measures in England2019In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 8, article id 1612Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This investigation reports on a new national model to evaluate the effectiveness of catchment sensitive farming in England, and how pollution mitigation measures have improved water quality between 2006 and 2016. An adapted HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) model was written to use accurate farm emissions data so that the pathway impact could be accounted for in the land phase of transport. Farm emissions were apportioned into different runoff fractions simulated in surface and soil layers, and travel time and losses were taken into account. These were derived from the regulator's catchment change matrix' and converted to monthly load time series, combined with extensive point source load datasets. Very large flow and water quality monitoring datasets were used to calibrate the model nationally for flow, nitrogen, phosphorus, suspended sediments and faecal indicator organisms. The model was simulated with and without estimated changes to farm emissions resulting from catchment measures, and spatial and temporal changes to water quality concentrations were then assessed.

  • 3.
    Strombäck, Lena
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gustavsson, Jens
    SMHI.
    A web based analysis and scenario tool for eutrophication of inland waters for Sweden and Europe2019In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 111, p. 259-267Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4. Gutierrez, J. M.
    et al.
    Maraun, D.
    Widmann, M.
    Huth, R.
    Hertig, E.
    Benestad, R.
    Roessler, O.
    Wibig, J.
    Wilcke, Renate
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kotlarski, S.
    San Martin, D.
    Herrera, S.
    Bedia, J.
    Casanueva, A.
    Manzanas, R.
    Iturbide, M.
    Vrac, M.
    Dubrovsky, M.
    Ribalaygua, J.
    Portoles, J.
    Raty, O.
    Raisanen, J.
    Hingray, B.
    Raynaud, D.
    Casado, M. J.
    Ramos, P.
    Zerenner, T.
    Turco, M.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Stepanek, P.
    Bartholy, J.
    Pongracz, R.
    Keller, D. E.
    Fischer, A. M.
    Cardoso, R. M.
    Soares, P. M. M.
    Czernecki, B.
    Page, C.
    An intercomparison of a large ensemble of statistical downscaling methods over Europe: Results from the VALUE perfect predictor cross-validation experiment2019In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 39, no 9, p. 3750-3785Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5. Bloeschl, Guenter
    et al.
    Hall, Julia
    Viglione, Alberto
    Perdigao, Rui A. P.
    Parajka, Juraj
    Merz, Bruno
    Lun, David
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Aronica, Giuseppe T.
    Bilibashi, Ardian
    Bohac, Milon
    Bonacci, Ognjen
    Borga, Marco
    Canjevac, Ivan
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Chirico, Giovanni B.
    Claps, Pierluigi
    Frolova, Natalia
    Ganora, Daniele
    Gorbachova, Liudmyla
    Gul, Ali
    Hannaford, Jamie
    Harrigan, Shaun
    Kireeva, Maria
    Kiss, Andrea
    Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
    Kohnova, Silvia
    Koskela, Jarkko J.
    Ledvinka, Ondrej
    Macdonald, Neil
    Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
    Mediero, Luis
    Merz, Ralf
    Molnar, Peter
    Montanari, Alberto
    Murphy, Conor
    Osuch, Marzena
    Ovcharuk, Valeryia
    Radevski, Ivan
    Salinas, Jose L.
    Sauquet, Eric
    Sraj, Mojca
    Szolgay, Jan
    Volpi, Elena
    Wilson, Donna
    Zaimi, Klodian
    Zivkovic, Nenad
    Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods2019In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 573, no 7772, p. 108-+Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

  • 6.
    Belusic, Danijel
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bozhinova, Denica
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Eronn, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Klehmet, Katharina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Martins, Helena
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Nilsson, Carin
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Photiadou, Christiana
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Segersson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Climate Extremes for Sweden2019Report (Other academic)
  • 7. Soares, Ana R. A.
    et al.
    Lapierre, Jean-Francois
    Selvam, Balathandayuthabani P.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Berggren, Martin
    Controls on Dissolved Organic Carbon Bioreactivity in River Systems2019In: Scientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 9, article id 14897Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 8.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Detecting Changes in River Flow Caused by Wildfires, Storms, Urbanization, Regulation, and Climate Across Sweden2019In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9. Weichselgartner, Juergen
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Evolving Climate Services into Knowledge-Action Systems2019In: Weather, Climate, and Society, ISSN 1948-8327, E-ISSN 1948-8335, Vol. 11, no 2, p. 385-399Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Bartosova, Alena
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Capell, Réne
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Olesen, Jorgen E.
    Jabloun, Mohamed
    Refsgaard, Jens Christian
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hyytiainen, Kari
    Pihlainen, Sampo
    Zandersen, Marianne
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1325-1336Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11. Persson, Magnus
    et al.
    Selim, Tarek
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Groundwater contamination risks from conservative point source pollutants in a future climate2019In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 64, no 13, p. 1659-1671Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hydrologiska aspekter på åtgärder mot vattenbrist och torka inom avrinningsområden2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vattenbrist och torka har varit i fokus i Sverige under senare åren. 2016-2018 var särskilt torra i södra Sverige. Syftet med denna rapport är främst att jämföra de senaste åren med tidigare förhållanden och att anlysera effekten av olika åtgärder mot vattenbrist och torka. Hydrologiska mätserier analyserades, ända sedan 1807 fram till och med 2018. Tonvikten är på perioden från och med 1900, eftersom få stationer var igång innan dess. Vattenföringen minskar inte generellt i Sverige. Lågflödena har ökat i norra Sverige, troligen beroende på milda vintrar på senare år. I sydöstra Sverige har lågflödena i stället minskat, eventuellt delvis på grund av regleringar. 2016-2018 var mycket torra i sydost. Vilket år som har varit torrast beror på var i landet man avser och vad man menar med torrt. Lågflöden analyserades både med statistiska metoder och med den hydrologiska modellen S-HYPE. Osäkerheten i uppskattningar av lågflöden är stor i båda metodvalen. Några sätt att förbättra metodiken föreslås i rapporten. Effekten av olika scenarier beräknades både med en statistisk metod och med S-HYPE. Den faktor som har störst effekt för att höja lågflödena är att man sparar vatten i sjöar, särskilt om man reglerar dem så att vatten sparas till sommaren. De flesta av de simulerade förändringarna i landskapet gav mindre effekt. Sammanfattningsvis är det framförallt vädret och klimatet som avgör vattenflödet. Att det var så torrt åren 2016-2018 beror främst på att det regnade så lite. Effekterna av torrperioder kan mildras genom att man sparar vatten i till exempel sjöar eller dammar.

  • 13. Tanouchi, Hiroto
    et al.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kawamura, Akira
    Amaguchi, Hideo
    Improving Urban Runoff in Multi-Basin Hydrological Simulation by the HYPE Model Using EEA Urban Atlas: A Case Study in the Sege River Basin, Sweden2019In: HYDROLOGY, ISSN 2306-5338, Vol. 6, no 1Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14. Grahn, T.
    et al.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Insured flood damage in Sweden, 1987-20132019In: Journal of Flood Risk Management, ISSN 1753-318X, E-ISSN 1753-318X, Vol. 12, no 3, article id UNSP e12465Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Crochemore, Louise
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Isberg, Kristina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pimentel, Rafael
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pineda, L.
    SMHI.
    Hasan, Abdulghani
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lessons learnt from checking the quality of openly accessible river flow data worldwide2019In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, no 64Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16. Kalantari, Zahra
    et al.
    Santos Ferreira, Carla Sofia
    Page, Jessica
    Goldenberg, Romain
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Meeting sustainable development challenges in growing cities: Coupled social-ecological systems modeling of land use and water changes2019In: Journal of Environmental Management, ISSN 0301-4797, E-ISSN 1095-8630, Vol. 245, p. 471-480Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 17. Parajka, Juraj
    et al.
    Bezak, Nejc
    Burkhart, John
    Hauksson, Bjarki
    Holko, Ladislav
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Jenicek, Michal
    Krajci, Pavel
    Mangini, Walter
    Molnar, Peter
    Riboust, Philippe
    Rizzi, Jonathan
    Sensoy, Aynur
    Thirel, Guillaume
    Viglione, Alberto
    MODIS snowline elevation changes during snowmelt runoff events in Europe2019In: Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, ISSN 0042-790X, E-ISSN 1338-4333, Vol. 67, no 1, p. 101-109Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 18. Olesen, Jorgen E.
    et al.
    Borgesen, Christen D.
    Hashemi, Fatemeh
    Jabloun, Mohamed
    Bar-Michalczyk, Dominika
    Wachniew, Przemyslaw
    Zurek, Anna J.
    Bartosova, Alena
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hansen, Anne L.
    Refsgaard, Jens C.
    Nitrate leaching losses from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1252-1263Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 19. Kotlarski, Sven
    et al.
    Szabo, Peter
    Herrera, Sixto
    Raty, Olle
    Keuler, Klaus
    Soares, Pedro M.
    Cardoso, Rita M.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Page, Christian
    Boberg, Fredrik
    Gutierrez, Jose M.
    Isotta, Francesco A.
    Jaczewski, Adam
    Kreienkamp, Frank
    Liniger, Mark A.
    Lussana, Cristian
    Pianko-Kluczynska, Krystyna
    Observational uncertainty and regional climate model evaluation: A pan-European perspective2019In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 39, no 9, p. 3730-3749Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20. Lewerin, S. S.
    et al.
    Sokolova, E.
    Wahlstrom, H.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Soren, K.
    Potential infection of grazing cattle via contaminated water: a theoretical modelling approach2019In: Animal, ISSN 1751-7311, E-ISSN 1751-732X, Vol. 13, no 9, p. 2052-2059, article id PII S1751731118003415Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wastewater discharge and agricultural activities may pose microbial risks to natural water sources. The impact of different sources can be assessed by water quality modelling. The aim of this study was to use hydrological and hydrodynamic models to illustrate the risk of exposing grazing animals to faecal pollutants in natural water sources, using three zoonotic faecal pathogens as model microbes and fictitious pastures in Sweden as examples. Microbial contamination by manure from fertilisation and grazing was modelled by use of a hydrological model (HYPE) and a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 3 FM), and microbial contamination from human wastewater was modelled by application of both models in a backwards process. The faecal pathogens Salmonella spp., verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (VTEC) and Cryptosporidium parvum were chosen as model organisms. The pathogen loads on arable land and pastures were estimated based on pathogen concentration in cattle faeces, herd prevalence and within-herd prevalence. Contamination from human wastewater discharge was simulated by estimating the number of pathogens required from a fictitious wastewater discharge to reach a concentration high enough to cause infection in cattle using the points on the fictitious pastures as their primary source of drinking water. In the scenarios for pathogens from animal sources, none of the simulated concentrations of salmonella exceeded the concentrations needed to infect adult cattle. For VTEC, most of the simulated concentrations exceeded the concentration needed to infect calves. For C. parvum, all the simulated concentrations exceeded the concentration needed to infect calves. The pathogen loads needed at the release points for human wastewater to achieve infectious doses for cattle were mostly above the potential loads of salmonella and VTEC estimated to be present in a 24-h overflow from a medium-size Swedish wastewater treatment plant, while the required pathogen loads of C. parvum at the release points were below the potential loads of C. parvum in a 24-h wastewater overflow. Most estimates in this study assume a worst-case scenario. Controlling zoonotic infections at herd level prevents environmental contamination and subsequent human exposure. The potential for infection of grazing animals with faecal pathogens has implications for keeping animals on pastures with access to natural water sources. As the infectious dose for most pathogens is more easily reached for calves than for adult animals, and young calves are also the main shedders of C. parvum, keeping young calves on pastures adjacent to natural water sources is best avoided.

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