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  • 1. Kumar, Pankaj
    et al.
    Wiltshire, Andrew
    Mathison, Camilla
    Asharaf, Shakeel
    Ahrens, Bodo
    Lucas-Picher, Philippe
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Gobiet, Andreas
    Saeed, Fahad
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Jacob, Daniela
    Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach2013Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 468, s. S18-S30Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This study presents the possible regional climate change over South Asia with a focus over India as simulated by three very high resolution regional climate models (RCMs). One of the most striking results is a robust increase in monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century but regional differences in strength. First the ability of RCMs to simulate the monsoon climate is analyzed. For this purpose all three RCMs are forced with ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1989-2008 at a horizontal resolution of similar to 25 km. The results are compared against independent observations. In order to simulate future climate the models are driven by lateral boundary conditions from two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) using the SRES A1B scenario, except for one RCM, which only used data from one GCM. The results are presented for the full transient simulation period 1970-2099 and also for several time slices. The analysis concentrates on precipitation and temperature over land. All models show a clear signal of gradually wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming over India is 1.5 degrees C at the end of 2050, whereas it is 3.9 degrees C at the end of century with respect to 1970-1999. The pattern of projected precipitation changes shows considerable spatial variability, with an increase in precipitation over the peninsular of India and coastal areas and, either no change or decrease further inland. From the analysis of a larger ensemble of global climate models using the A1B scenario a wide spread warming (similar to 3.2 degrees C) and an overall increase (similar to 8.5%) in mean monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century is very likely. The influence of the driving GCM on the projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 2. Van Pham, Trang
    et al.
    Brauch, Jennifer
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frueh, Barbara
    Ahrens, Bodo
    New coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system COSMO-CLM/NEMO: assessing air temperature sensitivity over the North and Baltic Seas2014Ingår i: Oceanologia, ISSN 0078-3234, Vol. 56, nr 2, s. 167-189Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces a newly established coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM and the ocean-sea-ice model NEMO for the North and Baltic Seas. These two models are linked via the OASIS3 coupler. Experiments with the new coupled system and with the stand-alone COSMO-CLM model forced by ERA-Interim re-analysis data over the period from 1985 to 1994 for the CORDEX Europe domain are carried out. The evaluation results of the coupled system show 2-m temperature biases in the range from -2.5 to 3 K. Simulated 2-m temperatures are generally colder in the coupled than in the uncoupled system, and temperature differences vary by season and space. The coupled model shows an improvement compared with the stand-alone COSMO-CLM in terms of simulating 2-m temperature. The difference in 2-m temperature between the two experiments are explained as downwind cooling by the colder North and Baltic Seas in the coupled system.

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