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  • 1.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Model Consistent Pseudo-Observations of Precipitation and Their Use for Bias Correcting Regional Climate Models2015In: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 3, no 1, p. 118-132Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Lack of suitable observational data makes bias correction of high space and time resolution regional climate models (RCM) problematic. We present a method to construct pseudo-observational precipitation data by merging a large scale constrained RCM reanalysis downscaling simulation with coarse time and space resolution observations. The large scale constraint synchronizes the inner domain solution to the driving reanalysis model, such that the simulated weather is similar to observations on a monthly time scale. Monthly biases for each single month are corrected to the corresponding month of the observational data, and applied to the finer temporal resolution of the RCM. A low-pass filter is applied to the correction factors to retain the small spatial scale information of the RCM. The method is applied to a 12.5 km RCM simulation and proven successful in producing a reliable pseudo-observational data set. Furthermore, the constructed data set is applied as reference in a quantile mapping bias correction, and is proven skillful in retaining small scale information of the RCM, while still correcting the large scale spatial bias. The proposed method allows bias correction of high resolution model simulations without changing the fine scale spatial features, i.e., retaining the very information required by many impact models.

  • 2.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Christensen, Ole B.
    Klehmet, Katharina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lenderink, Geert
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Teichmann, Claas
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11 degrees ensemble at an hourly resolution2019In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 19, no 4, p. 957-971Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 3.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Dahne, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate2014In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 122, no 1-2, p. 157-170Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing two high emissions scenarios. The biases in precipitation and temperature adherent to climate models were adjusted using a Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) approach. As well as the climate projection uncertainty, this study considers uncertainties in the bias-correction and hydrological modelling. While the results indicate that the cumulative discharge to the Baltic Sea for 2071 to 2100, as compared to 1971 to 2000, is likely to increase, the uncertainties quantified from the hydrological model and the bias-correction method show that even with a state-of-the-art methodology, the combined uncertainties from the climate model, bias-correction and impact model make it difficult to draw conclusions about the magnitude of change. It is therefore urged that as well as climate model and scenario uncertainty, the uncertainties in the bias-correction methodology and the impact model are also taken into account when conducting climate change impact studies.

  • 4.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Andersson, Lotta
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Horan, Mark
    Kunz, Richard
    Lumsden, Trevor
    Schulze, Roland
    Warburton, Michele
    Wilk, Julie
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa2011In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 36, no 14-15, p. 727-735Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 5.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Borris, Matthias
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Foster, Kean
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Persson, Magnus
    SMHI.
    Perttu, Anna-Maria
    Uvo, Cintia B.
    Viklander, Maria
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden2016In: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4, no 3, article id 39Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Borris, Matthias
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Foster, Kean
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Persson, Magnus
    Perttu, Anna-Maria
    Uvo, Cintia B.
    Viklander, Maria
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Recent Progress and Current Issues.2016In: Climate, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4(3), no 39Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Eronn, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Simonsson, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Södling, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Wern, Lennart
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Extremregn i nuvarande och framtida klimat Analyser av observationer och framtidsscenarier2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Studien har främst omfattat analyser av extrem korttidsnederbörd i observationer från SMHIs nät av automatiska meteorologiska stationer. Även analyser av korttidsnederbörd från kommunala mätare, manuella meteorologiska stationer, väderradar och klimatmodeller har genomförts. De huvudsakliga slutsatserna från detta uppdrag kan sammanfattas enligt följande.

    • En regionalisering av extrem korttidsnederbörd (skyfall) i Sverige gav fyra regioner: sydvästra (SV), sydöstra (SÖ), mellersta (M) och norra (N) Sverige. Ytterligare indelning kan göras men i denna studie prioriterades att ha regioner av denna storleksordning för att få ett ordentligt underlag för regional statistik. Regionaliseringen gäller enbart korttidsnederbörd, upp till maximalt 12 tim varaktighet.
    • Den regionala statistiken uppvisar tämligen distinkta geografiska skillnader, med högst värden i region SV och lägst i region N. Det är inte förvånande att vårt avlånga land uppvisar regionala skillnader då varmare och fuktigare luftmassor förekommer mer i söder än i norr, och därmed ökar förutsättningarna för intensiv nederbörd. Den regionala statistiken överensstämmer överlag väl med motsvarande statistik i våra grannländer.
    • Under perioden 1996-2017 finns inga tydliga tidsmässiga tendenser vad gäller skyfallens storlek och frekvens i de olika regionerna, utan dessa ligger överlag på en konstant nivå. Inte heller extrem dygnsnederbörd sedan 1900 uppvisar några tydliga tendenser på regional nivå. På nationell nivå indikeras en svag ökning av dels landets högsta årliga nederbörd sedan 1881, dels förekomsten av stora, utbredda 2-dygnsregn sedan 1961.
    • Skyfallsstatistik baserad på nederbördsobservationer från väderradar som justerats mot interpolerade stationsdata (HIPRAD) överensstämmer väl med stationsbaserad statistik för korta varaktigheter (upp till 2 tim) i södra Sverige. För längre varaktigheter och i mellersta och norra Sverige överskattar HIPRAD regnvolymerna.
    • Analyser av de senaste klimatmodellerna (Euro-CORDEX) indikerar en underskattning av extrema regnvolymer för korta varaktigheter (1 tim) men överlag en realistisk beskrivning av observerad skyfallsstatistik. Den framtida ökningen av volymerna beräknas ligga mellan 10% och 40% beroende på tidshorisont och koncentration av växthusgaser, vilket överlag ligger nära tidigare bedömningar.

    Både för bedömningen av regionala skillnader och historiska klimateffekter är det av största vikt att bibehålla, eller ännu hellre utöka, observationerna av korttidsnederbörd i Sverige. Nederbördsmätning via alternativa tekniker bör kunna användas i allt högre utsträckning framöver för förbättrad kunskap och statistik. Väderradar är redan etablerat och den digitala utvecklingen öppnar även möjligheter till insamling av nederbördsdata och relaterad information via mobilmaster, uppkopplade privata väderstationer, sociala medier, etc. Denna utveckling måste bevakas, utvärderas och i största möjliga utsträckning utnyttjas.

  • 8.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Uvo, C. B.
    Foster, Kean
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Technical Note: Initial assessment of a multi-method approach to spring-flood forecasting in Sweden2016In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 20, no 2, p. 659-667Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden, and proper reservoir management prior to the spring-flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires accurate forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring-flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialized set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for the Swedish river Vindelalven over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring-flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for early forecasts improvements of up to 25% are found. This potential is reasonably well realized in a multi-method system, which over all forecast dates reduced the error in SFV by similar to 4 %. This improvement is limited but potentially significant for e.g. energy trading.

  • 9. Pisinaras, Vassilios
    et al.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Gemitzi, Alexandra
    Conceptualizing and assessing the effects of installation and operation of photovoltaic power plants on major hydrologic budget constituents2014In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 493, p. 239-250Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study addresses the effects of land use change from agricultural to photovoltaic parks (PVPs) on the hydrology of an area. Although many environmental effects have been identified and analyzed, only minor attention has been given to the hydrologic effects of the installation and operation of PVPs. The effects of current PVP installation and operation practices on major hydrologic budget constituents (surface runoff, evapotranspiration and percolation) were identified, conceptualized, quantified and simulated using SWAT model. Vosvozis river basin located in north Greece was selected as a test site. Additionally, long-term effects were simulated using dynamically downscaled climate projections by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by 5 different General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2011-2100. Results indicate that surface runoff and percolation potential are significantly increased at the local scale and have to be considered during PVP siting, especially when sensitive and protected ecosystems are involved. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 10. Ruete, Alejandro
    et al.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Stenseth, Nils Chr.
    Snall, Tord
    Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte2012In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 279, no 1740, p. 3098-3105Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)-regional climate model-population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural-and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.

  • 11.
    Wetterhall, Fredrik
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Andreasson, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region2011In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 11, no 8, p. 2295-2306Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Assessing hydrological effects of global climate change at local scales is important for evaluating future hazards to society. However, applying climate model projections to local impact models can be difficult as outcomes can vary considerably between different climate models, and including results from many models is demanding. This study combines multiple climate model outputs with hydrological impact modelling through the use of response surfaces. Response surfaces represent the sensitivity of the impact model to incremental changes in climate variables and show probabilies for reaching a priori determined thresholds. Response surfaces were calculated using the HBV hydrological model for three basins in Sweden. An ensemble of future climate projections was then superimposed onto each response surface, producing a probability estimate for exceeding the threshold being evaluated. Site specific impacts thresholds were used where applicable. Probabilistic trends for future change in hazards or potential can be shown and evaluated. It is particularly useful for visualising the range of probable outcomes from climate models and can easily be updated with new results as they are made available.

  • 12. Wilk, Julie
    et al.
    Hjerpe, Mattias
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Fan, Hua
    Farm-scale adaptation under extreme climate and rapid economic transition2015In: Environment, Development and Sustainability, ISSN 1387-585X, E-ISSN 1573-2975, Vol. 17, no 3, p. 393-407Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper aims to analyse what shapes farmers' vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the context of rapid change. Xinjiang is semi-arid, with extremes of temperature, growing seasons and winds. Favourable socioeconomic conditions have boosted the wellbeing of farmers in the past decades. Interviews with forty-seven farmers led to the categorization of five groups according to the predominant type of farming activity: animal farmers, government farmers (leasing land from the Xinjiang Production and Construction Group), crop farmers, agri-tourism operators and entrepreneurs. High government support has aided farmers to deal with climate challenges, through advanced technology, subsidies and loans. Farmers, however, greatly contribute to their own high adaptive capacity through inventiveness, flexibility and a high knowledge base. Although the future climate will entail hotter temperatures, farmers can be seen as generally well equipped to deal with these challenges because of the high adaptive capacity they currently have and utilize. Those that are most vulnerable are those that have difficulty to access credit e.g. animal farmers and those that do not want to change their agricultural systems e.g. from pastoral lifestyles to include tourism-based operations.

  • 13.
    Yang, Wei
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Andreasson, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wetterhall, Fredrik
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies2010In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 41, no 3-4, p. 211-229Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As climate change could have considerable influence on hydrology and corresponding water management, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for assessing future impacts. Although the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) has improved over time, systematic model biases still constrain the direct use of RCM output for hydrological impact studies. To address this, a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed that adjusts precipitation and temperature from RCMs to better reflect observations. Statistical properties, such as daily mean, standard deviation, distribution and frequency of precipitation days, were much improved for control periods compared to direct RCM output. DBS-adjusted precipitation and temperature from two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESA1B) transient climate projections were used as inputs to the HBV hydrological model for several river basins in Sweden for the period 1961-2100. Hydrological results using DBS were compared to results with the widely-used delta change (DC) approach for impact studies. The general signal of a warmer and wetter climate was obtained using both approaches, but use of DBS identified differences between the two projections that were not seen with DC. The DBS approach is thought to better preserve the future variability produced by the RCM, improving usability for climate change impact studies.

  • 14.
    Yang, Wei
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bardossy, Andras
    Caspary, Hans-Joachim
    Downscaling daily precipitation time series using a combined circulation- and regression-based approach2010In: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, E-ISSN 1434-4483, Vol. 102, no 3-4, p. 439-454Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this paper is to introduce a new conditional statistical model for generating daily precipitation time series. The generated daily precipitation can thus be used for climate change impact studies, e.g., crop production, rainfall-runoff, and other water-related processes. It is a stochastic model that links local rainfall events to a continuous atmospheric predictor, moisture flux, in addition to classified atmospheric circulation patterns. The coupled moisture flux is proved to be capable of capturing continuous property of climate system and providing extra information to determine rainfall probability and rainfall amount. The application was made to simultaneously downscale daily precipitation at multiple sites within the Rhine River basin. The results show that the model can well reproduce statistical properties of daily precipitation time series. Especially for extreme rainfall events, the model is thought to better reflect rainfall variability compared to the pure CP-based downscaling approach.

  • 15.
    Yang, Wei
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden2015In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 15, no 9, p. 2037-2057Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically down-scaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

1 - 15 of 15
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