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  • 1. Colette, Augustin
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Baklanov, Alexander
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Brandt, Jorgen
    Christensen, Jesper H.
    Doherty, Ruth
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Geels, Camilla
    Giannakopoulos, Christos
    Hedegaard, Gitte B.
    Katragkou, Eleni
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Lei, Hang
    Manders, Astrid
    Melas, Dimitris
    Meleux, Frederik
    Rouil, Laurence
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Soares, Joana
    Stevenson, David S.
    Tombrou-Tzella, Maria
    Varotsos, Konstantinos V.
    Young, Paul
    Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?2015In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, no 8, article id 084015Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.

  • 2. Geels, Camilla
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Hanninen, Otto
    Lanso, Anne Sofie
    Schwarze, Per E.
    Skjoth, Carsten Ambelas
    Brandt, Jorgen
    Future Premature Mortality Due to O-3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe - Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock2015In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 12, no 3, p. 2837-2869Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

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