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  • 1.
    Andersson, Helén
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eriksson Bram, Lena
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Löptien, Ulrike
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Översikt av beräkningsmodeller för bedömning av fiskodlingars näringsämnesbelastning på sjöar, vattendrag, magasin och kustvatten2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den här rapporten är en kunskapssammanställning som utförts av SMHI på uppdrag av Havs- och Vattenmyndigheten. Den utgör inte något ställningstagande från Havs- och vattenmyndighetens sida. Rapporten försöker att sammanfatta den problematik som associeras med näringsämnesbelastningar från fiskodlingar i öppna kassar, vilka typer av beräkningar som kan behöva göras för att få en uppfattning om hur dessa kan påverka miljön samt några olika typer av modeller för detta ändamål.

    Fisk-, alg- och skaldjursodling är en växande industri runt om i världen som kan ge såväl näringsrik och hälsosam mat som arbetstillfällen. En nackdel med framförallt fiskodling i öppna kassar är att den kan innebära en påfrestning för vattenmiljön. De näringsämnen som ofta släpps ut från odlingen kan bidra till den övergödningsproblematik som redan finns i många sjöar och havsområden. Det är därför av största vikt att få en god uppskattning av den förväntade storleken på utsläppen förknippade med en öppen odling samt hur de kan tänkas förändra vattenkvaliteten på odlingsplatsen och dess närhet. Beräkningsmodeller kan vara till god hjälp vid bedömningen.

    Fiskar utsöndrar lösta näringsämnen och från odlingskassarna faller det också ut partikulärt organiskt material i form av fekalier och oätet foder. Storleken på näringsämneskällorna behöver beräknas och det finns modeller av olika komplexitet för att uppskatta detta. Storleken på det partikulära avfallet är viktigt dels för att det bidrarmed näringsämnen till vattnet och dels för att det kan ge upphov till ansamlingar av organiskt material på bottnen. När det organiska materialet bryts ner förbrukas syre och om ansamlingarna blir omfattande finns en risk för att det uppstår syrebrist vid bottnen. Om svavelväte bildas kan det orsaka skador på såväl den odlade fisken som det lokala ekosystemet. Odlingen kan också bidra till en försämrad vattenkvalitet i sin omgivning genom att tillgången av lösta näringsämnen blir större och därmed ge en ökad algproduktion. Den ökade algproduktionen skall i sin tur brytas ner och kan i förlängningen bidra till syrebristproblematiken.

    Det finns ett antal modeller som är specifikt utvecklade för fiskodlingar i öppna kassar och de tar i olika hög grad upp den beskrivna problematiken. Rapporten innehåller detaljerade genomgångar av några av modeller för att visa på styrkor och svagheter kring olika angreppsätt. Den innehåller också sammanfattningar av några vanligt förekommande modeller som använts internationellt vid bedömning av fiskodlingars miljöpåverkan. För att minska den negativa påverkan på vattenmiljön från har det också utvecklats recirkulerande system för odling. Rapporten tar inte upp belastning från den typen av fiskodlingar. Om utsläppen från ett sådant system är känt kan dock vattenkvalitetsmodeller användas för att se effekten av utsläpp från en punktkälla.

    Rapporten sammanfattar ett antal vattenkvalitetsmodeller för sjöar, vattendrag, kust och hav. En vattenkvalitetsmodell behöver inte nödvändigtvis vara utvecklad för att beskriva konsekvenser av fiskodlingar men bör kunna hantera frågeställningar som uppkommer vid bedömningar av övergödningsrisk vid utsläpp från en punktkälla. Den behöver därför kunna simulera parametrar såsom förändringen av näringsämneskoncentrationer, primärproduktion, siktdjup och syrgashalter på olika nivåer i vattenmassan. Modeller för den här typen av uppskattningar finns också i olika komplexitetsgrad och för olika skalor i tid och rum.

    Vid modellering är en god tillgång till observationer en förutsättning för pålitliga modellresultat och behövs såväl för att driva och kalibrera modellen som för validering av modellresultaten. Det är viktigt att tillgängliga data håller god kvalitet. En noggrann analys och beskrivning av den tillgängliga databasen hjälper därmed till att bedöma tillförlitligheten av modellsimuleringarna.

  • 2.
    Andersson, Helén
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Wallman, Patrik
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Visualization of hydrological, physical and biogeochemical modelling of the Baltic Sea using a GeoDomeTM2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The ECOSUPPORT-project aims to help policy makers by supplying state-of-the-art research on the state of the Baltic Sea under different scenarios of nutrient supply, pressure from fisheries and impact of climate change. In order to make the research results accessible, a new form of scientific communication has been tested. Presentation of research data and physical, chemical and biogeochemical processes on land and in the sea were made using a special visualization platform, Uniview, which was projected onto a cupola-shaped screen inside an inflatable, enclosed dome. The visualization has been tested on different audiences including policy makers, politicians, researchers and university students. Overall, the response has been overwhelmingly positive with the audience expressing the view that the used visualization technique enhanced their understanding and receptiveness. This view was shared with the scientific presenters.

  • 3. Eero, Margit
    et al.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?2016In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 45, no 6, p. 649-660Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    The effects of mean sea level rise and strengthened winds on extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea2018In: Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Letters, ISSN 2095-0349, Vol. 8, no 6, p. 366-371Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Ljungemyr, Patrik
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nygren, Petter
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Falahat, Saeed
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nord, Adam
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Jönsson, Anette
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lake, Irene
    SMHI, Core Services. SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doos, Kristofer
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dietze, Heiner
    Loeptien, Ulrike
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Westerlund, Antti
    Tuomi, Laura
    Haapala, Jari
    Nemo-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO-based ocean model for the Baltic and North seas - research and operational applications2019In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 363-386Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6. Jonsson, Per R.
    et al.
    Kotta, Jonne
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Herkul, Kristjan
    Virtanen, Elina
    Sandman, Antonia Nystrom
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    High climate velocity and population fragmentation may constrain climate-driven range shift of the key habitat former Fucus vesiculosus2018In: Diversity & distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity, ISSN 1366-9516, E-ISSN 1472-4642, Vol. 24, no 7, p. 892-905Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7. Jutterstrom, S.
    et al.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Omstedt, A.
    Malmaeus, J. M.
    Multiple stressors threatening the future of the Baltic Sea-Kattegat marine ecosystem: Implications for policy and management actions2014In: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 86, no 1-2, p. 468-480Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper discusses the combined effects of ocean acidification, eutrophication and climate change on the Baltic Sea and the implications for current management strategies. The scientific basis is built on results gathered in the BONUS+ projects Baltic-C and ECOSUPPORT. Model results indicate that the Baltic Sea is likely to be warmer, more hypoxic and more acidic in the future. At present management strategies are not taking into account temporal trends and potential ecosystem change due to warming and/or acidification, and therefore fulfilling the obligations specified within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, OSPAR and HELCOM conventions and national environmental objectives may become significantly more difficult. The paper aims to provide a basis for a discussion on the effectiveness of current policy instruments and possible strategies for setting practical environmental objectives in a changing climate and with multiple stressors. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  • 8.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    ECOSUPPORT: A Pilot Study on Decision Support for Baltic Sea Environmental Management2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 529-533Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 9.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Chubarenko, Boris
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Hansson, Anders
    Havenhand, Jonathan
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Niiranen, Susa
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Raudsepp, Urmas
    Reckermann, Marcus
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Vali, Germo
    Weslawski, Jan-Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations2012In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, no 3, article id 034005Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

  • 10.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Kotwicki, Lech
    Neset, Tina-Simone
    Niiranen, Susa
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Weslawski, Jan Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management2014In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, no 1, p. 37-48Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

  • 11.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, B.
    Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Transient scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea Region during the 21st century2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea have been performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). In this study we focussed on annual and seasonal mean changes of ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea. In correspondence with earlier studies we found that the impact of changing climate on the Baltic biogeochemistry might be significant. Assuming reference loadings the water quality in all climate scenarios is reduced at the end of the century. The impact of nutrient load reductions according to the BSAP will be less effective in future climate compared to present climate. However, the results of the pessimistic business-as-usual scenario suggest that policy makers should act to avoid much worse environmental conditions than today.

  • 12.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Mueller-Karulis, Baerbel
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations2018In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 5, article id UNSP 440Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Naumann, Michael
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea2019In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 6, article id UNSP 46Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, B. G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961-20992012In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, no 9-10, p. 2421-2441Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.

  • 15.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ranjbar, Zohreh
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 558-573Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

  • 16. Reusch, Thorsten B. H.
    et al.
    Dierking, Jan
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Casini, Michele
    Czajkowski, Mikolaj
    Hasler, Berit
    Hinsby, Klaus
    Hyytiainen, Kari
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    Jomaa, Seifeddine
    Jormalainen, Veijo
    Kuosa, Harri
    Kurland, Sara
    Laikre, Linda
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Margonski, Piotr
    Melzner, Frank
    Oesterwind, Daniel
    Ojaveer, Henn
    Refsgaard, Jens Christian
    Sandstrom, Annica
    Schwarz, Gerald
    Tonderski, Karin
    Winder, Monika
    Zandersen, Marianne
    The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean2018In: Science Advances, ISSN 0036-8156, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 4, no 5, article id eaar8195Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 17.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, no 5-6, p. 3369-3387Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 18.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Uncertainties in Projections of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Driven by an Ensemble of Global Climate Models2019In: FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE, ISSN 2296-6463, Vol. 6, article id UNSP 244Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 19. Weigel, Benjamin
    et al.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Snickars, Martin
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Long-term progression and drivers of coastal zoobenthos in a changing system2015In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, ISSN 0171-8630, E-ISSN 1616-1599, Vol. 528, p. 141-159Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal zones are facing climate-driven change coupled with escalating eutrophication. With increasing shifts in hydrographic conditions during the past few decades, a focal task is to understand how environmental drivers affect zoobenthic communities, which play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning. By using long-term data, spanning 40 yr (1973 to 2013) in the northern Baltic Sea, we showed a disparity in zoobenthic responses with pronounced changes in community composition and a trend towards decreased biomass in sheltered areas, while biomasses increased in exposed areas of the coastal zone. We used generalized additive modeling to show that bottom oxygen saturation, sea surface temperature and organic load of the sediments were the main environmental drivers behind contrasting patterns in biomass progression. Oxygen saturation alone explained over one third of the deviation in the biomass developments in sheltered areas, while exposed areas were mainly limited by organic content of the sediments. We analyzed high-resolution climate-scenario simulations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios for the Baltic Sea region in combination with different nutrient load scenarios, for the end of the 21st century. The scenario outcomes showed negative trends in bottom oxygen concentrations throughout the coastal and archipelago zone along with overall increasing temperatures and primary production, and decreasing salinity. Our results suggest that these projected future conditions will strengthen the observed pattern in decreasing zoobenthic production in the immediate coastal zones. Moreover, the potential intensification of unfavorable conditions ex-panding seaward may lead to an expansion of biomass loss to more exposed sites.

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