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  • 1. Akhtar, Naveed
    et al.
    Krug, Amelie
    Brauch, Jennifer
    Arsouze, Thomas
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Ahrens, Bodo
    European marginal seas in a regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model and their impact on Vb-cyclones and associated precipitation2019Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, nr 9-10, s. 5967-5984Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 2. Bartolino, Valerio
    et al.
    Tian, Huidong
    Bergstrom, Ulf
    Jounela, Pekka
    Aro, Eero
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Cardinale, Massimiliano
    Bland, Barbara
    Casini, Michele
    Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population2017Ingår i: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, nr 2, artikel-id e0172004Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 3.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios - Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity2019Ingår i: Ocean Science, ISSN 1812-0784, E-ISSN 1812-0792, Vol. 15, nr 6, s. 1399-1418Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 4.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Väli, Germo
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Evaluation of the SMHI coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCA4-NEMO2013Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den regionala kopplade atmosfär-is-havsmodellen RCA4-NEMO som utvecklats vid SMHI, utvärderas baserat på en ERA40-återanalys. Utvecklingen av den regionala klimatmodellen fortsätter men en första utvärdering presenteras här för att informera om aktuell status.RCA4-NEMO i aktuell status innehåller två modellkomponenter. Den regionala atmosfärsmodellen RCA4 täcker hela Europa och är tvåvägskopplad till en is-hav-modell för Nordsjön och Östersjön baserat på NEMO. Den används för tillfället för nedskalning av CMIP5-scenarier för detta århundrade för Nordsjön och Östersjön. Som en del av utvärderingen av RCA4-NEMO presenteras en analys och diskussion av hindcast-körning 1970-1999. Modellresulaten jämförs med observationsdata. Temperatur nära ytan och värmeflödet är förhållandevis bra vid en jämförelse med in-situ-mätningar och skattningar baserade på satellitdata. Salthalt och färskvattenutbyte är dock mindre bra. Momentumflödet från atmosfär till hav identifieras som en kritisk process i kopplingen mellan modellerna. Med undantag för färskvattensutbytet mellan atmosfär och hav är de klimatologiska egenskaperna nära ytan och motsvarande flöden jämförbara med klimatologiska observationer för perioden 1970-1999.

  • 5.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Klein, Birgit
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations2019Ingår i: Atmosphere, ISSN 2073-4433, E-ISSN 2073-4433, Vol. 10, nr 5, artikel-id 272Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 6.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate2012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 586-599Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

  • 7.
    Groger, Matthias
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Summer hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak projected in an ensemble of climate scenarios downscaled with a coupled regional ocean-sea ice-atmosphere model2019Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, nr 9-10, s. 5945-5966Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 8. Groger, Matthias
    et al.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Thermal air-sea coupling in hindcast simulations for the North Sea and Baltic Sea on the NW European shelf2015Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, artikel-id 26911Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article compares interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean hindcast simulations with stand-alone runs of the atmosphere and ocean models using the recently developed regional ocean-atmosphere model NEMO-Nordic for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. In the interactively coupled run, the ocean and the atmosphere components were allowed to exchange mass, momentum and heat every 3 h. Our results show that interactive coupling significantly improves simulated winter sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Baltic Sea. The ocean and atmosphere stand-alone runs, respectively, resulted in too low sea surface and air temperatures over the Baltic Sea. These two runs suffer from too cold prescribed ERA40 SSTs, which lower air temperatures and weaken winds in the atmosphere only run. In the ocean-only run, the weaker winds additionally lower the vertical mixing thereby lowering the upward transport of warmer subpycnocline waters. By contrast, in the interactively coupled run, the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange evolved freely and demonstrated good skills in reproducing observed surface temperatures. Despite the strong impact on oceanic and atmospheric variables in the coupling area, no far reaching influence on atmospheric variables over land can be identified. In perturbation experiments, the different dynamics of the two coupling techniques is investigated in more detail by implementing strong positive winter temperature anomalies in the ocean model. Here, interactive coupling results in a substantially higher preservation of heat anomalies because the atmosphere also warmed which damped the ocean to atmosphere heat transfer. In the passively coupled set-up, this atmospheric feedback is missing, which resulted in an unrealistically high oceanic heat loss. The main added value of interactive air-sea coupling is twofold: (1) the elimination of any boundary condition at the air-sea interface and (2) the more realistic dynamical response to perturbations in the ocean-atmosphere heat balance, which will be essential in climate warming scenarios.

  • 9.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    The effects of mean sea level rise and strengthened winds on extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea2018Ingår i: Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Letters, ISSN 2095-0349, Vol. 8, nr 6, s. 366-371Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 10.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    An, B.W.
    SMHI.
    Haapala, J.
    SMHI.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    A 3D Ocean Modelling Configuration for Baltic & North Sea Exchange Analysis: BaltiX V 1.12013Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a need for having a reliable numerical representation of the exchanges between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea from many points of view. First, the North Sea is the salt provider of the BalticSea, but also the oxygen provider of the lowermost layers of the Baltic Sea. This means that any numerical analysis which has for goal to study the long term changes in this exchange can not rely on a model of the Baltic Sea that has an open boundary condition at the entrance of the Baltic Sea (i.e.: the Kattegat area). In order to represent the long term changes in the exchanges between the NorthSea and the Baltic Sea, one needs to consider the coupling between these two basins which have a very different dynamical behaviour which means one needs to consider them as a whole. This meansthat any regional model should have its open boundary condition further away from the entrance of the Baltic Sea, that is in a place that is remote enough to allow a buffer large enough in the North Sea,so that the SSH variability at the entrance of the Baltic Sea is well represented [7].Second, the Baltic Sea outflow has a great influence on the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC hereafter) which is also interesting to study, and which can only be well represented if the wind effect over the Baltic Sea is taken into account [9].Many models were successfully applied to the Baltic Sea or/and to the North Sea/Baltic Sea area. On can cite the Rossby Centre Ocean model RCO [15], which successfully represents the thermo-haline as well as the ice structures and variability of the Baltic Sea. One can also cite HIROMB [6], which is a North & Baltic Seas numerical representation used in operational oceanography.However, all these modelling structures lack in at least one of the following points :They include only the Baltic Sea area, which makes impossible the study of the exchanges withthe North Sea.- They were mostly used for operational purpose, and do not have stability properties in terms ofBaltic salt content which does not make them suitable for long term studies.- They do not follow anymore the framework of a community model, and therefore do not benefit of the recent scientific or technical developments implemented in most ocean modelling platform.- A Baltic & North Sea setup is also necessary for long term coupled simulations.There was therefore a need to build a new Baltic & North Sea configuration, based on a community modelling framework, and designed to follow this framework eventually.BaltiX is a Baltic & North Sea configuration based on the NEMO [14] ocean engine. Its development was started in 2011 at SMHI (Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden). It follows closely the development of the NEMO ocean engine, and BaltiX is updated each time an update is done in it.In the present report, Section 2 describes the configuration and explains the choices that have been made to build it. Based on a simulation done for the period 1961-2007, we then present several results. Section 3 presents a barotropic analysis of the results provided by the configuration, and Section 4 presents results in terms of salinity and temperature variability. Section 5 has been specifically written to present the sea-ice model coupled to BaltiX and its effects in terms of sea-ice variability. A last part provides a short conclusion to the present report.

  • 11.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Ljungemyr, Patrik
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Nygren, Petter
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Falahat, Saeed
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Nord, Adam
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Jönsson, Anette
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Lake, Irene
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet. SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doos, Kristofer
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dietze, Heiner
    Loeptien, Ulrike
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Westerlund, Antti
    Tuomi, Laura
    Haapala, Jari
    Nemo-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO-based ocean model for the Baltic and North seas - research and operational applications2019Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 12, nr 1, s. 363-386Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 12.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Basu, Chandan
    Dietze, Heiner
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Freshwater outflow of the Baltic Sea and transport in the Norwegian current: A statistical correlation analysis based on a numerical experiment2013Ingår i: Continental Shelf Research, ISSN 0278-4343, E-ISSN 1873-6955, Vol. 64, s. 1-9Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on the results of a numerical ocean model, we investigate statistical correlations between wind forcing, surface salinity and freshwater transport out of the Baltic Sea on one hand, and Norwegian coastal current freshwater transport on the other hand. These correlations can be explained in terms of physics and reveal how the two freshwater transports are linked with wind forcing, although this information proves to be non-sufficient when it comes to the dynamics of the Norwegian coastal current. Based on statistical correlations, the Baltic Sea freshwater transport signal is reconstructed and shows a good correlation but a poor variability when compared with the measured signal, at least when data filtered on a two-daily time scale is used. A better variability coherence is reached when data filtered on a weekly or monthly time scale is used. In the latest case, a high degree of precision is reached for the reconstructed signal. Using the same kind of methods for the case of the Norwegian coastal current, the negative peaks of the freshwater transport signal can be reconstructed based on wind data only, but the positive peaks are under-represented although some of them exist mostly because the meridional wind forcing along the Norwegian coast is taken into account. Adding Norwegian coastal salinity data helps improving the reconstruction of the positive peaks, but a major improvement is reached when adding non-linear terms in the statistical reconstruction. All coefficients used to re-construct both freshwater transport signals are provided for use in European Shelf or climate modeling configurations. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 13. Jeworrek, Julia
    et al.
    Wu, Lichuan
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Characteristics of convective snow bands along the Swedish east coast2017Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 8, s. 163-175Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 14.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Model study on the variability of ecosystem parameters in the Skagerrak-Kattegat area, effect of load reduction in the North Sea and possible effect of BSAP on Skagerrak-Kattegat area2016Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den nyligen utvecklade ekosystemmodellen NEMO-Nordic-SCOBI användes för att studera variabiliteten av några indikatorer för ekosystemet i Skagerrak- kattegatt området. Även två känslighetsstudier gjordes för att undersöka möjliga effekter av Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) och en reduktion scenario av närsaltstillförsel på Skagerrak-Kattegatt området. Den utförda studien kan användas som underlag och stöd vid tolkningen av observationsdata inför utvärderingen ”Intermediate Assessments Eutrophication status assessment”. Jämförelsen mellan modelldata och observationer indikerar att modellens resultat är acceptabla. Modellerade ytvärden av salthalt, temperatur och löst fosfat (DIP) visar god överenskommelse med observerade värden. Samtidigt har modellresultaten avvikelser i vissa delområden vad gäller löst oorganiskt kväve (DIN) och löst kisel under vitertid. Dock visar modellen i sitt nuvarande tillstånd tillräckligt goda resultat för den aktuella studien. Resultaten från de två känslighetsstudierna visar en minskning av näringskoncentrationer i ytan under vintern i båda havsområdena. I Skagerrak är minskningen orsakad av reducerad närsaltstillförsel i Nordsjön. I Kattegatt minskar lösta fosfatet på grund av genomförandet av BSAP. Ingen av scenarierna visade någon signifikant påverkan på syre vid havsbotten eller på ytkoncentratiner av Chl-a.

  • 15.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, B.
    Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Transient scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea Region during the 21st century2011Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vattnet i Östersjön är optiskt sett uppdelat i många beståndsdelar och har ytterst höga halter av färgade lösta organiska ämnen (colored dissolved organic matter, CDOM), även kallade för gulämnen, gilvin eller gelbstoff. CDOM är en komplex blandning av kemiska bindningar skapade vid nedbrytningen av fotosyntetiskt producerat organiskt material och det har en avsevärd påverkan på ljusfältet i vattnet. En kvantitativ beskrivning av dynamiken och variabiliteten behövs ofta för att få en riktig beskrivning av ljusets nedträngning och därefter av tex primärproduktionen.     
    Denna studie är ett första försök att inkludera CDOM i en modell för Östersjön. Modellförsöken baseras på en fix koncentration i de 30 största floderna. I brist på omfattande mätningar antas en flodtillförsel som är proportionell mot totalt organiskt kol. Eftersom ursprunget och ödet fortfarande är föremål för diskussioner testar vi olika hastigheter av CDOM sönderfall och jämför resultaten med satellitobservationer. Jämfört med temperatur eller tidsberoende sönderfall uppnåddes bäst resultat med ett ljusberoende sönderfall. Att behandla CDOM som ett konservativt spårämne leder inte till tillfredsställande resultat.

  • 16.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Radtke, Hagen
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea2019Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, nr 11, s. 1362-1376Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 17.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Mueller-Karulis, Baerbel
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations2018Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 5, artikel-id UNSP 440Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 18.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Naumann, Michael
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea2019Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 6, artikel-id UNSP 46Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 19.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, B. G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961-20992012Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, nr 9-10, s. 2421-2441Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.

  • 20.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ranjbar, Zohreh
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study2012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 558-573Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

  • 21. Paetsch, Johannes
    et al.
    Burchard, Hans
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Graewe, Ulf
    Gröger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Mathis, Moritz
    Kapitza, Hartmut
    Bersch, Manfred
    Moll, Andreas
    Pohlmann, Thomas
    Su, Jian
    Ho-Hagemann, Ha T. M.
    Schulz, Achim
    Elizalde, Alberto
    Eden, Carsten
    An evaluation of the North Sea circulation in global and regional models relevant for ecosystem simulations2017Ingår i: Ocean Modelling, ISSN 1463-5003, E-ISSN 1463-5011, Vol. 116, s. 70-95Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 22.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates2019Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, nr 5-6, s. 3369-3387Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 23.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Uncertainties in Projections of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Driven by an Ensemble of Global Climate Models2019Ingår i: FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE, ISSN 2296-6463, Vol. 6, artikel-id UNSP 244Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 24.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    An algorithm based on sea-level pressure fluctuations to identify major Baltic inflow events2014Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 66, artikel-id 23452Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Major Baltic inflows are an important process to sustain the sensitive steady state of the Baltic Sea. We introduce an algorithm to identify atmospheric variability favourable for major Baltic inflows. The algorithm is based on sea-level pressure (SLP) fields as the only parameter. Characteristic SLP pattern fluctuations include a precursory phase of 30 days and 10 days of inflow period. The algorithm identifies successfully the majority of observed major Baltic inflows between 1961 and 2010. In addition, the algorithm finds some occurrences which cannot be related to observed inflows. In these cases with favourable atmospheric conditions, inflows were precluded by contemporaneously existing saline water masses or strong freshwater supply. Moreover, the algorithm clearly identifies the stagnation periods as a lack of SLP variability favourable for MBIs. This indicates that the lack of inflows is mainly a consequence of missing atmospheric forcing during this period. The only striking inflow which is not identified by the algorithm is the event in January 2003. We demonstrate that this is due to the special evolution of SLP fields which are not comparable with any other event. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an ensemble of scenario simulations. The result indicates that the number of atmospheric events favourable for major Baltic inflows increases slightly in all scenarios.

  • 25. Van Pham, Trang
    et al.
    Brauch, Jennifer
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frueh, Barbara
    Ahrens, Bodo
    New coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system COSMO-CLM/NEMO: assessing air temperature sensitivity over the North and Baltic Seas2014Ingår i: Oceanologia, ISSN 0078-3234, Vol. 56, nr 2, s. 167-189Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces a newly established coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM and the ocean-sea-ice model NEMO for the North and Baltic Seas. These two models are linked via the OASIS3 coupler. Experiments with the new coupled system and with the stand-alone COSMO-CLM model forced by ERA-Interim re-analysis data over the period from 1985 to 1994 for the CORDEX Europe domain are carried out. The evaluation results of the coupled system show 2-m temperature biases in the range from -2.5 to 3 K. Simulated 2-m temperatures are generally colder in the coupled than in the uncoupled system, and temperature differences vary by season and space. The coupled model shows an improvement compared with the stand-alone COSMO-CLM in terms of simulating 2-m temperature. The difference in 2-m temperature between the two experiments are explained as downwind cooling by the colder North and Baltic Seas in the coupled system.

  • 26.
    Wang, Shiyu
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model in the North Sea and Baltic Sea2015Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, artikel-id 24284Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is developed, which is composed of the regional setup of ocean model NEMO, the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, the sea ice model LIM3 and the river routing model CaMa-Flood. The performance of this coupled model system is assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries during the period 1979-2010. Compared to observations, this coupled model system can realistically simulate the present climate. Since the active coupling area covers the North Sea and Baltic Sea only, the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere over Europe is small. However, we found some local, statistically significant impacts on surface parameters like 2m air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). A precipitation-SST correlation analysis indicates that both coupled and uncoupled models can reproduce the air-sea relationship reasonably well. However, the coupled simulation gives slightly better correlations even when all seasons are taken into account. The seasonal correlation analysis shows that the air-sea interaction has a strong seasonal dependence. Strongest discrepancies between the coupled and the uncoupled simulations occur during summer. Due to lack of air-sea interaction, in the Baltic Sea in the uncoupled atmosphere-standalone run the correlation between precipitation and SST is too small compared to observations, whereas the coupled run is more realistic. Further, the correlation analysis between heat flux components and SST tendency suggests that the coupled model has a stronger correlation. Our analyses show that this coupled model system is stable and suitable for different climate change studies.

  • 27.
    Wåhlström, Irene
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water on the sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea2016Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 121, nr 7, s. 1867-1883Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
1 - 27 av 27
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