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  • 1. Bartolino, Valerio
    et al.
    Tian, Huidong
    Bergstrom, Ulf
    Jounela, Pekka
    Aro, Eero
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Cardinale, Massimiliano
    Bland, Barbara
    Casini, Michele
    Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population2017In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 2, article id e0172004Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Väli, Germo
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Evaluation of the SMHI coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCA4-NEMO2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    AbstractThe regional, coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCA4-NEMO developed at the SMHI is evaluated on the basis of an ERA40 hindcast. While the development of the regional climate model is continuing a first assessment is presented here to allow for an orientation about the status guo. RCA4-NEMO in its present form consists of two model components. The regional atmosphere model RCA4 covers the whole of Europe and is interactvely coupled to a North Sea and Baltic Sea ice-ocean model based on NEMO. RCA4-NEMO is currently being used to downscale CMIP5 scenarios for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region for this century. As a part of the validation of RCA4-NEMO we present an analysis and discussion of the hindcast period 1970-1999. The model realization is compared to observational records. Near surface temperatures and heat fluxes compare reasonably well with records of in-situ measurments and satellite derived estimates. For salinities and freshwater fluxes the agreement with observations in not satisfactory yet. The momentum fluxes transferred from the atmosphere to the ice-ocean model are identified as on of the sensitive processes in the coupling of both model components. Except for the freshwater exchange between atmosphere and ocean the climatological near surface properties and corresponding fluxes compare well with climatological estimates for the period 1970-1999.

  • 3.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Klein, Birgit
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations2019In: Atmosphere, ISSN 2073-4433, E-ISSN 2073-4433, Vol. 10, no 5, article id 272Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 586-599Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

  • 5. Groger, Matthias
    et al.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Thermal air-sea coupling in hindcast simulations for the North Sea and Baltic Sea on the NW European shelf2015In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, article id 26911Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article compares interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean hindcast simulations with stand-alone runs of the atmosphere and ocean models using the recently developed regional ocean-atmosphere model NEMO-Nordic for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. In the interactively coupled run, the ocean and the atmosphere components were allowed to exchange mass, momentum and heat every 3 h. Our results show that interactive coupling significantly improves simulated winter sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Baltic Sea. The ocean and atmosphere stand-alone runs, respectively, resulted in too low sea surface and air temperatures over the Baltic Sea. These two runs suffer from too cold prescribed ERA40 SSTs, which lower air temperatures and weaken winds in the atmosphere only run. In the ocean-only run, the weaker winds additionally lower the vertical mixing thereby lowering the upward transport of warmer subpycnocline waters. By contrast, in the interactively coupled run, the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange evolved freely and demonstrated good skills in reproducing observed surface temperatures. Despite the strong impact on oceanic and atmospheric variables in the coupling area, no far reaching influence on atmospheric variables over land can be identified. In perturbation experiments, the different dynamics of the two coupling techniques is investigated in more detail by implementing strong positive winter temperature anomalies in the ocean model. Here, interactive coupling results in a substantially higher preservation of heat anomalies because the atmosphere also warmed which damped the ocean to atmosphere heat transfer. In the passively coupled set-up, this atmospheric feedback is missing, which resulted in an unrealistically high oceanic heat loss. The main added value of interactive air-sea coupling is twofold: (1) the elimination of any boundary condition at the air-sea interface and (2) the more realistic dynamical response to perturbations in the ocean-atmosphere heat balance, which will be essential in climate warming scenarios.

  • 6.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    The effects of mean sea level rise and strengthened winds on extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea2018In: Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Letters, ISSN 2095-0349, Vol. 8, no 6, p. 366-371Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    An, B.W.
    SMHI.
    Haapala, J.
    SMHI.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    A 3D Ocean Modelling Configuration for Baltic & North Sea Exchange Analysis: BaltiX V 1.12013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a need for having a reliable numerical representation of the exchanges between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea from many points of view. First, the North Sea is the salt provider of the BalticSea, but also the oxygen provider of the lowermost layers of the Baltic Sea. This means that any numerical analysis which has for goal to study the long term changes in this exchange can not rely on a model of the Baltic Sea that has an open boundary condition at the entrance of the Baltic Sea (i.e.: the Kattegat area). In order to represent the long term changes in the exchanges between the NorthSea and the Baltic Sea, one needs to consider the coupling between these two basins which have a very different dynamical behaviour which means one needs to consider them as a whole. This meansthat any regional model should have its open boundary condition further away from the entrance of the Baltic Sea, that is in a place that is remote enough to allow a buffer large enough in the North Sea,so that the SSH variability at the entrance of the Baltic Sea is well represented [7].Second, the Baltic Sea outflow has a great influence on the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC hereafter) which is also interesting to study, and which can only be well represented if the wind effect over the Baltic Sea is taken into account [9].Many models were successfully applied to the Baltic Sea or/and to the North Sea/Baltic Sea area. On can cite the Rossby Centre Ocean model RCO [15], which successfully represents the thermo-haline as well as the ice structures and variability of the Baltic Sea. One can also cite HIROMB [6], which is a North & Baltic Seas numerical representation used in operational oceanography.However, all these modelling structures lack in at least one of the following points :They include only the Baltic Sea area, which makes impossible the study of the exchanges withthe North Sea.- They were mostly used for operational purpose, and do not have stability properties in terms ofBaltic salt content which does not make them suitable for long term studies.- They do not follow anymore the framework of a community model, and therefore do not benefit of the recent scientific or technical developments implemented in most ocean modelling platform.- A Baltic & North Sea setup is also necessary for long term coupled simulations.There was therefore a need to build a new Baltic & North Sea configuration, based on a community modelling framework, and designed to follow this framework eventually.BaltiX is a Baltic & North Sea configuration based on the NEMO [14] ocean engine. Its development was started in 2011 at SMHI (Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden). It follows closely the development of the NEMO ocean engine, and BaltiX is updated each time an update is done in it.In the present report, Section 2 describes the configuration and explains the choices that have been made to build it. Based on a simulation done for the period 1961-2007, we then present several results. Section 3 presents a barotropic analysis of the results provided by the configuration, and Section 4 presents results in terms of salinity and temperature variability. Section 5 has been specifically written to present the sea-ice model coupled to BaltiX and its effects in terms of sea-ice variability. A last part provides a short conclusion to the present report.

  • 8.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Ljungemyr, Patrik
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nygren, Petter
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Falahat, Saeed
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nord, Adam
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Jönsson, Anette
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lake, Irene
    SMHI, Core Services. SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doos, Kristofer
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dietze, Heiner
    Loeptien, Ulrike
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Westerlund, Antti
    Tuomi, Laura
    Haapala, Jari
    Nemo-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO-based ocean model for the Baltic and North seas - research and operational applications2019In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 363-386Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Basu, Chandan
    Dietze, Heiner
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Freshwater outflow of the Baltic Sea and transport in the Norwegian current: A statistical correlation analysis based on a numerical experiment2013In: Continental Shelf Research, ISSN 0278-4343, E-ISSN 1873-6955, Vol. 64, p. 1-9Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on the results of a numerical ocean model, we investigate statistical correlations between wind forcing, surface salinity and freshwater transport out of the Baltic Sea on one hand, and Norwegian coastal current freshwater transport on the other hand. These correlations can be explained in terms of physics and reveal how the two freshwater transports are linked with wind forcing, although this information proves to be non-sufficient when it comes to the dynamics of the Norwegian coastal current. Based on statistical correlations, the Baltic Sea freshwater transport signal is reconstructed and shows a good correlation but a poor variability when compared with the measured signal, at least when data filtered on a two-daily time scale is used. A better variability coherence is reached when data filtered on a weekly or monthly time scale is used. In the latest case, a high degree of precision is reached for the reconstructed signal. Using the same kind of methods for the case of the Norwegian coastal current, the negative peaks of the freshwater transport signal can be reconstructed based on wind data only, but the positive peaks are under-represented although some of them exist mostly because the meridional wind forcing along the Norwegian coast is taken into account. Adding Norwegian coastal salinity data helps improving the reconstruction of the positive peaks, but a major improvement is reached when adding non-linear terms in the statistical reconstruction. All coefficients used to re-construct both freshwater transport signals are provided for use in European Shelf or climate modeling configurations. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 10. Jeworrek, Julia
    et al.
    Wu, Lichuan
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Characteristics of convective snow bands along the Swedish east coast2017In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 8, p. 163-175Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Model study on the variability of ecosystem parameters in the Skagerrak-Kattegat area, effect of load reduction in the North Sea and possible effect of BSAP on Skagerrak-Kattegat area2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Newly developed ecosystem model NEMO-Nordic-SCOBI was applied to Skagerrak - Kattegat area to investigate the variability of some indicators of the ecosystem. Also, two sensitivity runs were performed to investigate possible effect of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) and a river loads reduction scenario on the Skagerrak - Kattegat area. The performed investigation could be used “to provide a basis to assist with the interpretation of measurement data before the Intermediate Assessments Eutrophication status assessment”. Comparison of simulation results with observations indicates acceptable model performance. Modeled sea surface salinity, temperature and dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) are in good agreement with observations. At the same time, the model has a bias in certain areas of the investigated region for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved silicate during the winter season. However, the model in its current state shows good enough results for the performed investigation. Results of the two sensitivity studies show a decrease of sea surface nutrients concentrations during winter period in both regions. In the Skagerrak area the decrease is due to reduction in river nutrient loads in North Sea. In the Kattegat area there is a decrease of dissolved phosphate due to the implementation of BSAP. At the same time, in both scenarios, no significant changes were obtained for near bottom oxygen or surface layer Chl-a.

  • 12.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, B.
    Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Transient scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea Region during the 21st century2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea have been performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). In this study we focussed on annual and seasonal mean changes of ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea. In correspondence with earlier studies we found that the impact of changing climate on the Baltic biogeochemistry might be significant. Assuming reference loadings the water quality in all climate scenarios is reduced at the end of the century. The impact of nutrient load reductions according to the BSAP will be less effective in future climate compared to present climate. However, the results of the pessimistic business-as-usual scenario suggest that policy makers should act to avoid much worse environmental conditions than today.

  • 13.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Radtke, Hagen
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1362-1376Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Mueller-Karulis, Baerbel
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations2018In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 5, article id UNSP 440Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Naumann, Michael
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea2019In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 6, article id UNSP 46Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, B. G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961-20992012In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, no 9-10, p. 2421-2441Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.

  • 17.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ranjbar, Zohreh
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 558-573Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

  • 18. Paetsch, Johannes
    et al.
    Burchard, Hans
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Graewe, Ulf
    Gröger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Mathis, Moritz
    Kapitza, Hartmut
    Bersch, Manfred
    Moll, Andreas
    Pohlmann, Thomas
    Su, Jian
    Ho-Hagemann, Ha T. M.
    Schulz, Achim
    Elizalde, Alberto
    Eden, Carsten
    An evaluation of the North Sea circulation in global and regional models relevant for ecosystem simulations2017In: Ocean Modelling, ISSN 1463-5003, E-ISSN 1463-5011, Vol. 116, p. 70-95Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, no 5-6, p. 3369-3387Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Uncertainties in Projections of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Driven by an Ensemble of Global Climate Models2019In: FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE, ISSN 2296-6463, Vol. 6, article id UNSP 244Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 21.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    An algorithm based on sea-level pressure fluctuations to identify major Baltic inflow events2014In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 66, article id 23452Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Major Baltic inflows are an important process to sustain the sensitive steady state of the Baltic Sea. We introduce an algorithm to identify atmospheric variability favourable for major Baltic inflows. The algorithm is based on sea-level pressure (SLP) fields as the only parameter. Characteristic SLP pattern fluctuations include a precursory phase of 30 days and 10 days of inflow period. The algorithm identifies successfully the majority of observed major Baltic inflows between 1961 and 2010. In addition, the algorithm finds some occurrences which cannot be related to observed inflows. In these cases with favourable atmospheric conditions, inflows were precluded by contemporaneously existing saline water masses or strong freshwater supply. Moreover, the algorithm clearly identifies the stagnation periods as a lack of SLP variability favourable for MBIs. This indicates that the lack of inflows is mainly a consequence of missing atmospheric forcing during this period. The only striking inflow which is not identified by the algorithm is the event in January 2003. We demonstrate that this is due to the special evolution of SLP fields which are not comparable with any other event. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an ensemble of scenario simulations. The result indicates that the number of atmospheric events favourable for major Baltic inflows increases slightly in all scenarios.

  • 22. Van Pham, Trang
    et al.
    Brauch, Jennifer
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Frueh, Barbara
    Ahrens, Bodo
    New coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system COSMO-CLM/NEMO: assessing air temperature sensitivity over the North and Baltic Seas2014In: Oceanologia, ISSN 0078-3234, Vol. 56, no 2, p. 167-189Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces a newly established coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM and the ocean-sea-ice model NEMO for the North and Baltic Seas. These two models are linked via the OASIS3 coupler. Experiments with the new coupled system and with the stand-alone COSMO-CLM model forced by ERA-Interim re-analysis data over the period from 1985 to 1994 for the CORDEX Europe domain are carried out. The evaluation results of the coupled system show 2-m temperature biases in the range from -2.5 to 3 K. Simulated 2-m temperatures are generally colder in the coupled than in the uncoupled system, and temperature differences vary by season and space. The coupled model shows an improvement compared with the stand-alone COSMO-CLM in terms of simulating 2-m temperature. The difference in 2-m temperature between the two experiments are explained as downwind cooling by the colder North and Baltic Seas in the coupled system.

  • 23.
    Wang, Shiyu
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model in the North Sea and Baltic Sea2015In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, article id 24284Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is developed, which is composed of the regional setup of ocean model NEMO, the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, the sea ice model LIM3 and the river routing model CaMa-Flood. The performance of this coupled model system is assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries during the period 1979-2010. Compared to observations, this coupled model system can realistically simulate the present climate. Since the active coupling area covers the North Sea and Baltic Sea only, the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere over Europe is small. However, we found some local, statistically significant impacts on surface parameters like 2m air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). A precipitation-SST correlation analysis indicates that both coupled and uncoupled models can reproduce the air-sea relationship reasonably well. However, the coupled simulation gives slightly better correlations even when all seasons are taken into account. The seasonal correlation analysis shows that the air-sea interaction has a strong seasonal dependence. Strongest discrepancies between the coupled and the uncoupled simulations occur during summer. Due to lack of air-sea interaction, in the Baltic Sea in the uncoupled atmosphere-standalone run the correlation between precipitation and SST is too small compared to observations, whereas the coupled run is more realistic. Further, the correlation analysis between heat flux components and SST tendency suggests that the coupled model has a stronger correlation. Our analyses show that this coupled model system is stable and suitable for different climate change studies.

  • 24.
    Wåhlström, Irene
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Impact of increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water on the sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea2016In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 121, no 7, p. 1867-1883Article in journal (Refereed)
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