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  • 1.
    Amorim, Jorge Humberto
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Asker, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Belusic, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Carvalho, Ana
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Gidhagen, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Körnich, Heiner
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Lind, Petter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Olsson, Esbjörn
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Segersson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Strombäck, Lena
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Joe, Paul
    Baklanov, Alexander
    Integrated Urban Services for European cities: the Stockholm case2018In: WMO Bulletin, ISSN 0042-9767, Vol. 67, no 2, p. 33-40Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2.
    Kjellström, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lind, Petter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Changes in the water budget in the Baltic Sea drainage basin in future warmer climates as simulated by the regional climate model RCA32009In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 114-124Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we investigate three different regional climate change scenarios with respect to changes in the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The scenarios are transient climate change scenarios in which the regional climate model RCA3 has been used to downscale results from two general circulation models, with three different emissions scenarios, for the years 1961-2100. First we show that the control climate in the late 20th century is too wet as compared with observations. This wet bias in the simulations is partly attributable to biases in the forcing global models but is also amplified in the regional climate model. The future climate change signal shows a gradually warmer and wetter climate during the 21st century with increased moisture transport into the region via the atmosphere. This leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle with more precipitation and evaporation. The net precipitation increases in all scenarios in the entire region. The changes are of the order 15%-20% for annual and areal mean fluxes.

  • 3. Lenderink, Geert
    et al.
    Belusic, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fowler, Hayley J.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lind, Petter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    van Ulft, Bert
    de Vries, Hylke
    Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 074012Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Lind, Petter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Temperature and precipitation changes in Sweden; a wide range of model-based projections for the 21st century2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report we analyze the climate change signal for Sweden in scenarios for the 21st century in a large number of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), used in the fourth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We focus on near-surface temperature and precipitation. The analysis includes six emission scenarios as well as multi-member runs with the AOGCMs. At the Rossby Centre, SMHI, regional climate models have been run under different emission scenarios and driven by a few AOGCMs. The results of those runs have been used as a basis in climate change, impact and adaptation assessments. Here, we evaluate results from these regional climate model runs in relation to the climate change signal of the IPCC AOGCMs. First, simulated conditions for the recent past (1961-1990) are evaluated. Generally, most AOGCMs tend to have a cold bias for Sweden, especially in winter that can be as large as 10°C. Also, the coarse resolution of the AOGCMs leads to biases in simulated precipitation, both in averages, extremes and often also in the phase of the seasonal cycle. Generally, AOGCMs overestimate precipitation in winter; biases reach 30-40% or even more. In summer, some AOGCMs overestimate precipitation while others underestimate it. Projected responses depend on season and geographical region. Largest signals are seen in winter and in northern Sweden, where the mean simulated temperature increase among the AOGCMs (and across the emissions scenarios B1, A1B and A2) is nearly 6°C by the end of the century, and precipitation increases by around 25%. In southern Sweden, corresponding values are around +4°C and +11%. In summer, the temperature increase is more moderate, which is also the case for precipitation. The regional climate signals are usually within the ranges given by the AOGCM runs, however, the regional models tends to show larger increases in winter, and smaller increases in summertime precipitation.

  • 5.
    Lind, Petter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Water budget in the Baltic Sea drainage basin: Evaluation of simulated fluxes in a regional climate model2009In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 56-67Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigated the Rossby Centre regional climate model, RCA3, and its ability to reproduce the water budget of the Baltic Sea drainage basin during the period from 1979 to 2002. The model was forced on its lateral boundaries with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis data, ERA40. Simulated long-term means and inter-annual variability were compared with observational records and model-derived data. The basin-wide water fluxes were broadly captured by the model, and annual mean net precipitation over land agreed well (i.e., within 5%) with observed total discharge to the Baltic Sea. Long-term annual means of precipitation were around 20% higher in RCA3 compared with reference data, the differences being in most months statistically significant at the 5% level. On the other hand, differences between the reference datasets were evident and in most months also statistically significant. The inclusion of a high-resolution dataset showed a close agreement compared with RCA3; differences were less than 5% in the long-term annual mean. Therefore, more high-resolution observational datasets, especially for evaporation and runoff, are required to refine the water budget and compare water fluxes on sub-regional and local scales.

  • 6.
    Lind, Petter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lindstedt, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Summer Precipitation over Central Europe in a Suite of High-Resolution Climate Models2016In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 29, no 10, p. 3501-3518Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Lindstedt, David
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lind, Petter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    A new regional climate model operating at the meso-gamma scale: performance over Europe2015In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, article id 24138Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There are well-known difficulties to run numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models at resolutions traditionally referred to as 'grey-zone' (similar to 3-8 km) where deep convection is neither completely resolved by the model dynamics nor completely subgrid. In this study, we describe the performance of an operational NWP model, HARMONIE, in a climate setting (HCLIM), run at two different resolutions (6 and 15 km) for a 10-yr period (1998-2007). This model has a convection scheme particularly designed to operate in the 'grey-zone' regime, which increases the realism and accuracy of the time and spatial evolution of convective processes compared to more traditional parametrisations. HCLIM is evaluated against standard observational data sets over Europe as well as high-resolution, regional, observations. Not only is the regional climate very well represented but also higher order climate statistics and smaller scale spatial characteristics of precipitation are in good agreement with observations. The added value when making climate simulations at similar to 5 km resolution compared to more typical regional climate model resolutions is mainly seen for the very rare, high-intensity precipitation events. HCLIM at 6 km resolution reproduces the frequency and intensity of these events better than at 15 km resolution and is in closer agreement with the high-resolution observations.

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