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  • 1.
    Andréasson, Johan
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Översiktlig kartpresentation av klimatförändringars påverkan på Sveriges vattentillgång.: Summary of climate change maps of the Swedish water resources - Background material for the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. Underlag till Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen.2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report summarizes the water resource maps of changes in mean annual runoff, large floods and hydropower potential that have been delivered to the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. The hydrological model simulations that have been used to produce the maps were done using the HBV Sweden modelling system. Simulations for present climate used observed input of precipitation and temperature from 1961-1990. Calculations of future hydrological conditions were based on results from regional climate modelling at the Rossby Centre, SMHI. Five different regional scenarios of future climate have been used, four representing the future period 2071-2100 and one for the whole period 1961-2100. Two different approaches to interface the hydrological model and the climate models have been used, the delta method and the scaling method. The mean annual runoff will, according to the scenarios, increase for most parts of Sweden except for the south-east parts of the country. The picture becomes more complex when it comes to changes in large floods, but they are expected to increase substantially in the south-west parts and in the Swedish mountains according to the scenarios. The total Swedish hydropower potential is expected to increase substantially according to the scenarios. All results from HBV Sweden should only be used for a general interpretation of where more in depth analyses might be of interest. The simulations based on the so-called scaling method are more preliminary than the other simulations, since the method is still under development.

  • 2.
    Bergstrand, Marie
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Asp, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Nationwide hydrological statistics for Sweden with high resolution using the hydrological model S-HYPE2014In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 45, no 3, p. 349-356Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A first version of nationally covering hydrological statistics for Sweden based on the S-HYPE hydrological model for the period 1961-2010 is described. A key feature of the proposed method is that observed data are used as input wherever such data are available, and the model is used for interpolation in between stations. Short observation records are automatically extended by the use of the model. High flow statistics typically differed by about +/- 10% from observations. The corresponding number for low flow was about +/- 30%. High flow peaks were usually simulated slightly too low whereas low flows were too high. In a relative sense low flows were more uncertain than high flows. The mean flow was relatively certain. The annual maximum values were fitted to a Gumbel distribution, by the method of moments, for each subbasin. Flood statistics were then calculated up to a return period of 50 years. According to a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, less than 1% of the fitted distributions were rejected. Most rejections occurred in regulated systems, due to difficulties in simulating regulation strategies, but also due to uncertainties in the precipitation input in the mountainous region. Results at small scale are very uncertain. The proposed method is a cost-effective way of calculating hydrological statistics with high spatial resolution.

  • 3.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Andréasson, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Framtidens översvämningsrisker2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A study of the impacts of global warming on future risks for floods and inundations in Sweden has been carried out on contract from Länsförsäkringsbolagens Forskningsfond. The work focussed on River Dalälven and the big lakes Vänern, Mälaren and Hjälmaren but some nationwide analyses were carried out as well. The methodology was based on two global climate models, two assumptions about the future emissions of greenhouse gases and a regional climate model for dynamical downscaling to Swedish conditions. The regional climate scenarios are further processed by the HBV hydrological model and the resulting river runoff or water levels are treated statistically by frequency analysis. The results show that future risk exposure is changing in a different way depending on location in the country. The situation seems to be aggravated in particular in the Vänern area in southwest Sweden and along its outlet, River Göta älv. There will also be increased risks in the western parts of the Scandinavian mountains. The risks for heavy rainfalls, which may cause severe local flooding are likely to increase even though it is difficult to discern a consistent regional pattern between the models, in this respect. The study has also addressed the uncertainty in the assessments of flood risks. It is obvious that uncertainties in the global climate scenarios are responsible for a lot of the uncertainty in the end results, but there are also uncertainties inflicted by the strategy used when transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the hydrological model.

  • 4.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Berndtsson, Ronny
    Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium2009In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 173-182Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this study was to reconstruct river flow to the Baltic Sea using data from different periods during the past thousand years. A hydrological model coupled to simulations from climate models was used to estimate river flow. A "millennium" simulation of past climate from the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model provided climatological inputs. Results from this global model were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model over northern Europe. Temperature and precipitation from the downscaled simulation results were then used in the HBV hydrological model to simulate river flows to the Baltic Sea for the periods 1000-1199 and 1551-1929. These were compared with observations for the period 1921-2002. A general conclusion from this work is that although climate has varied during the past millennium, variability in annual river flow to the Baltic Sea does not appear more pronounced in recent years than during the previous millennium, or vice versa.

  • 5.
    Granström, Carl
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Gren, Linda
    SMHI.
    Dahlin, Magdalena
    SMHI.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Utvärdering av SMHIs hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänst under höga flöden under vårfloden 20082008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Detta är en utvärdering av SMHI:s hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänsts arbete vid vårfloden 2008. I dokumentet beskrivs även den hydrologiska situationen för tiden från 24 april till 14 maj.Det höga flödet uppkom på grund av snösmältning. I stora delar av Norrland låg innan vårfloden mycket mer snö än normalt. När värmen kom i slutet av april så skapades en vårflod som genererade höga flöden och vissa översvämningsproblem. I de stora reglerade älvarna uppkom få problem, även fast det blev en rejäl vårflod, se figur 1.Med hjälp av observationer i realtid, meteorologiska prognoser, hydrologiska, prognoser, visualiseringsverktyg och ett nära samarbete med kraftbolagen är SMHI:s hydrologiska prognos- och varningstjänst kontinuerligt uppdaterad på det hydrologiska läget i hela Sverige. När sannolikheten bedöms vara större än 50 % för att en varningsnivå överskrids skall en varning utfärdas. Under mycket höga flöden skall SMHI också stötta länsstyrelse och räddningstjänst med meteorologisk och hydrologisk expertis samt med specialanpassade prognoser.SMHI gör dagligen automatiska prognoser för över 80 st utvaldaavrinningsområden i Sverige. Generellt var prognoserna av medelgod kvalité. Under flödet arbetade SMHI ca 650 arbetstimmar utöver det som är normalt för perioden för varningstjänst.SMHI har under perioden 24 april-14 maj skickat ut 18 flödesvarningar och 4 hydrologiska informationer. Träffsäkerheten i årets hydrologiska varningar utvärderas i november varje år och ingår därför inte i denna rapport.Efter flödessituationen skickades en enkät ut till de kommuner, länsstyrelser och kraftbolag som berördes av varningarna. En sammanställning av enkätsvaren och samtliga kommentarer redovisas i denna rapport. Det övergripande omdömet om SMHI:s tjänster var positivt.

  • 6.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Regional analys av klimat, vattentillgång och höga flöden2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Rapporten beskriver långtidsvariationen i nederbörd, temperatur, vattentillgång och höga flöden i Sverige, med särskilt tonvikt på frågeställningar av betydelse för vattenkraftindustrin.Utgångspunkten för studien är regionala serier för nederbörd, temperatur och avrinning för tillrinningsområdena till de fyra havsbassängerna i Östersjön och Västerhavet: Bottenviken, Bottenhavet, Egentliga Östersjön och Västerhavet.

  • 7.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Dyrestam, Karin
    Eklund, Dan
    Gyllander, Anders
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Hallberg, Kristoffer
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tahsin, Yacob
    SMHI.
    Wingqvist, Else-Marie
    SMHI. SMHI.
    Detaljerad översvämningskartering av nedre Torneälven2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Flood maps for return periods 100-years and 250-years together with a calculated highest flow have been produced for the lower part of the River Torne. The work was made within the Interreg IV A Nord Project “Detailed flood mapping of the lower part of River Torne”. Flows with return periods 100-years and 250-years were calculated statistically based on observations. The calculated highest flow was modeled with the hydrological HBV-model according to the Swedish design flood guidelines (Flood Design Category I). A hydraulic model was built to calculate water levels along the river at the different flow levels. The model was based on height data from laser scanning and river bottom data from sounding. The data sampling was made in cooperation between Swedish and Finnish authorities within the project. The flood zones were projected on background map data from the national land services in Finland and Sweden. The area was divided in nine parts and mapped with scaling 1: 75 000. The maps are available at www.smhi.se in original size and collected in appendix (bilaga 1) in a compressed form. SMHI sounded half of the investigated river length. SMHI was responsible for and performed the hydraulic modeling, flow calculations and production of flood zones and maps.

1 - 7 of 7
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