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  • 1.
    Andersson, Jafet
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Ali, Abdou
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Minoungou, Bernard
    Providing peak river flow statistics and forecasting in the Niger River basin2017In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 100, p. 3-12Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2.
    Andersson, Jafet
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Combine and Share Essential Knowledge for Sustainable2016In: The Solutions Journal, ISSN 2154-0926, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 30-32Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 3.
    Andersson, Jafet
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hjerdt, Niclas
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Combine and Share Essential Knowledge for Sustainable Water Management2016In: Solutions Journal, ISSN 2154-0896, E-ISSN 2154-0926, Vol. 7, no 3Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 4.
    Andersson, Jafet
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Traore, Farid
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Ali, Abdou
    Process refinements improve a hydrological model concept applied to the Niger River basin2017In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 31, no 25, p. 4540-4554Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Andersson, Jafet
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Key factors for improving large-scale hydrological model performance2015In: European Water, ISSN 1792-085X, Vol. 49, p. 77-88Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Consequences of changed wetness on riverine nitrogen - human impact on retention vs. natural climatic variability2001In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 2, no 3, p. 93-105Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The HBV-N model was used for a scenario analysis of changes in nitrogen retention and transport caused by alterations of wetness due to land drainage, lowering of lakes, building of dams and climatic variability in a river basin in south-central Sweden (1885-1994). In general, dams were situated in locations more favourable for retention, compared to the lowered lakes. Rather modest conversions of water bodies only changed nitrogen transport by about 3%. The 180-times-larger increase of (mainly) tile-drained agricultural land had, according to simulations, increased the nitrogen transport by 17%, due to reduced retention. However, compared to human-induced alteration of the landscape N retention, the choice of 10-year periods of climatological data had the overriding effect on the calculated nitrogen transport. Weather-induced variations resulted in a 13% difference in nitrogen retention between various 10-year periods. When the model was driven by climatological data from the driest 10-year period (1905-1914), the estimated average annual load was only half of that obtained with climatological data from the wettest 10-year period (1975-1984).

  • 7.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Modelling of human and climatic impact on nitrogen load in a Swedish river 1885-19942003In: Hydrobiologia, ISSN 0018-8158, E-ISSN 1573-5117, Vol. 497, no 1-3, p. 63-77Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Changes in environmental conditions within a river basin in South Central Sweden (1400 km(2)) and impacts on riverine nitrogen (N) transport were evaluated. A historical database was compiled and the process-based HBV-N model used to estimate flow normalised N loads in 1885, 1905, 1927, 1956, 1976, and 1994, using a standard climatological record (1985-1994). The study shows the value of process-based modelling in environmental impact assessment, by making it possible to assess and integrate the effect of a number of factors, both with regard to human impact and natural climatic variability. Factors taken into account include: the effects of land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, human dietary intake, use of flush toilets, lowering of lakes, building of dams, and climatic variability. For all years studied, agriculture was the overriding source of N, and changes in riverine N over time mainly reflected changes in land use and agricultural practices. In spite of decreasing N-leaching from agriculture, the net load remained fairly constant between 1885 and 1927, due to reduced N retention. Drainage of agricultural land had a dominating impact on reducing N retention, which increased the N loads, while the effects of the lowering of lake levels and dam building were less pronounced. Household N emission per capita was higher in 1994 than in 1927, as the increased consumption of meat and dairy products alone resulted in a higher increase of the emission than was compensated for with wastewater treatment improvement. In addition, introduction of flush toilets increased the emission from households. In total, the net load in 1976 was twofold higher than that in 1885, 1905 and 1927, due to increased leaching from agriculture, wastewater emission, and atmospheric deposition on lake surfaces. Finally, the impact of climatological variability was assessed, using a 110-yr climatological record. The choice of 10-yr period of climatological data was the factor that had the largest impact on calculated N load.

  • 8.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Olsson, Johanna Alkan
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Jonsson, Anna
    Use of participatory scenario modelling as platforms in stakeholder dialogues2008In: Water S.A., ISSN 0378-4738, E-ISSN 1816-7950, Vol. 34, no 4, p. 439-447Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A participatory methodology, based on dialogues between stakeholders and experts has been developed and tested in the drainage area to Kaggebo Bay in the Baltic Sea. This study is focused on the EU Water Framework Directive, with emphasis on reduction of eutrophication. The drainage area is included in the WFD administrative area of the Motala Strom River basin. A similar approach is now applied in a recently initiated project in the Thukela River basin, with focus on impacts of climate change on water resources. The methodology is based on the idea that a catchment model serves as a platform for the establishment of a common view of present conditions and the causes behind these conditions. In the following steps, this is followed by model-assisted agreement on environmental goals (i.e. what do we want the future to look like?) and local agreement on a remedy or mitigation plans in order to reduce environmental impact (e. g. eutrophication); alternatively to adapt to conditions that cannot be determined by local actions (e. g. climate change). By involving stakeholder groups in this model-supported stepwise process, it is ensured that all stakeholder groups involved have a high degree of confidence in the presented model results, and thereby enable various actors involved to share a common view, regarding both present conditions, goals and the way to reach these goals. Although this is a process that is time-(and cost-) consuming, it is hypothesised that the use of this methodology is two-pronged: it increases the willingness to carry out remedies or necessary adaptations to a changing environment, and it increases the level of understanding between the various groups and therefore ameliorates the potential for future conflicts. Compared to traditional use of model results in environmental decision-making, the experts' role is transformed from a one-way communication of final results to assistance in the various steps of the participatory process.

  • 9.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Estimating catchment nutrient flow with the HBV-NP model: Sensitivity to input data2005In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 34, no 7, p. 521-532Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The dynamic catchment model HBV-N has been further developed by adding routines for phosphorus transport and is now called the HBV-NP model. The model was shown to satisfactorily simulate nutrient dynamics in the Ronnea catchment (1 900 km(2)). Its sensitivity to input data was tested, and results demonstrated the increased sensitivity to the selection of input data on a subcatchment scale when compared with the catchment scale. Selection of soil and land use databases was found to be critical in some subcatchments but did not have a significant impact on a catchment scale. Although acceptable on a catchment scale, using templates and generalization, with regards to emissions from point sources and rural households, significantly decreased model performance in certain subcatchments when compared with using more detailed local information. A division into 64 subcatchments resulted in similar model performance at the catchment outlet when compared with a lumped approach. Adjusting the imported matrixes of the regional leaching of nitrogen, from agricultural land, against mean subcatchment water percolation did not have a significant impact on the model performance.

  • 10. Archfield, Stacey A.
    et al.
    Clark, Martyn
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hay, Lauren E.
    McMillan, Hilary
    Kiang, Julie E.
    Seibert, Jan
    Hakala, Kirsti
    Bock, Andrew
    Wagener, Thorsten
    Farmer, William H.
    Andreassian, Vazken
    Attinger, Sabine
    Viglione, Alberto
    Knight, Rodney
    Markstrom, Steven
    Over, Thomas
    Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling2015In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 51, no 12, p. 10078-10091Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

  • 11.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Andersson, Lotta
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Alkan-Olsson, J.
    Jonsson, A.
    Using catchment models to establish measure plans according to the Water Framework Directive2007In: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 56, no 1, p. 21-28Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A participatory modelling process (DEMO) has been developed and applied in a 350 km(2) catchment in southern Sweden. The overall goal is to improve the dialogues between experts and local stakeholders by using numerical models as a platform for discussions. The study is focused on reducing nutrient load and on the development of a locally established measure plan, which is requested by the European Water Framework Directive. The HBV-NP model was chosen as it can calculate effects and costs for different allocations of several combined measures in a catchment. This paper shows the impact of including local data in the modelling process vs. using more general data. It was found that modelled diffuse nutrient pollution was highly modified when including local know-how, soft information and more detailed field investigations. Leaching from arable land was found to be 35% higher using more detailed information on for instance, agricultural practices, crop and soil distribution. Moreover, the stakeholders' acceptance of model results and reliance on experts was increased by applying the participatory process and involving stakeholders in the modelling procedure.

  • 12.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Andersson, Lotta
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Larsson, M
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Modelling diffuse nutrient flow in eutrophication control scenarios2004In: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 49, no 3, p. 37-45Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Water Management Research Programme (VASTRA) focuses on the development and demonstration of tools for more efficient eutrophication control when implementing the EU water framework directive in Sweden. During the first half of the programme, models for nitrogen flow were developed, and at present, similar models for phosphorus are under construction (e.g. HBV-P). The programme is interdisciplinary, and scientists are collaborating in actor-games and focus group evaluations including scenario analysis. The scenarios modelled in VASTRA phase 1, show that (i) changed agricultural practices can be the most effective and-least expensive way to reduce nitrogen transport from land to, the sea; (ii) constructed agricultural wetlands may only have small impact on riverine nitrogen transport in some regions, due to natural hydrometeorological dynamics; (iii) removing planktivorous fish may be an efficient way of reducing the algal concentrations in lakes without the undesired side-effect of increased nutrient load to the down-stream river system. In VASTRA phase 11, one of the highlights will be interdisciplinary scenario-modelling of different measure strategies in a pilot catchment of southern Sweden (Ronne a).

  • 13.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Andreasson, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Fogelberg, S
    Johnsson, H
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Persson, K
    Climate change impact on water quality: Model results from southern Sweden2005In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 34, no 7, p. 559-566Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled in the Ronnea catchment. Additionally, biological response was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsjon. The results are compared with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%); ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such as cyanobacteria (+80%).

  • 14.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Modelling nitrogen transport and retention in the catchments of southern Sweden1998In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 27, no 6, p. 471-480Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication and attempts are being made to reduce nutrient loads. This article focuses on nitrogen transport from southern Sweden (145 000 km(2)), and presents a model approach (HBV-N) that has been used in the national decision-making process for best management practices. Calculations of nitrogen leaching, retention in the freshwater system, net transport to the sea, and source apportionment are presented for the period 1985-1994. Input data were handled in GIS, including results from SOIL-N and MATCH. Daily simulations were made in 3725 subbasins with calibration against measured time series at 722 sites. Diffuse source pollution was normally retained by 10-25% before entering the river network. Lakes normally reduced nitrogen transport by 30-40 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) of lake area. On average, 45% of the annual gross load was reduced during transport, but temporal and spatial variations were great. 75 000 tonnes N yr(-1) reached the sea.

  • 15.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Watershed modelling of nonpoint nitrogen losses from arable land to the Swedish coast in 1985 and 19942000In: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, Vol. 14, no 4, p. 389-404Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Eutrophication problems in the Baltic Sea have drawn attention to the contribution of nutrients from surrounding countries. By using the HBV-N model in southern Sweden (145 000 km(2)) daily nitrogen leaching, reduction in rivers and lakes, net transport to the sea and source apportionment have been calculated in 3725 subbasins for the period 1985-1994, with calibration at 722 sites against measured time series. On average, 48% of the nonpoint losses from agriculture were reduced during the transport towards the sea, which left about 33 500 tonnes in annual mean net transport. This represents 45% of the total land-based load. Land cover and emissions for the years of 1985 and 1994 were used in two separate simulations of the 10-year period. The normalized gross leakage from arable land in 1985 was estimated to 29 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), which corresponds to 15 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in net leakage to the sea. In 1994 these transports were reduced by 20 and 15%, and thereby the total load on the sea was decreased by 7%. This is still far from the Swedish goal of 50% reduction. The article presents the spatial variation of nitrogen leakage and retention within the southern half of Sweden, and emphasizes the importance of allocating measures where down-stream retention is low in order to achieve efficiency with respect to the sea. It is shown that the model approach may be used in the decision making process for best management practices in watersheds. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 16.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Brandt, Maja
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Grahn, Gun
    SMHI.
    Roos, Elisabet
    SMHI.
    Sjöö, Allan
    SMHI.
    Modellerad kvävetransport, retention och källfördelning för södra Sverige1997Report (Other academic)
  • 17.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Dahne, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 600-612Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.

  • 18.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Dahne, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Water and nutrient simulations using the HYPE model for Sweden vs. the Baltic Sea basin - influence of input-data quality and scale2012In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 43, no 4, p. 315-329Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water resource management is often based on numerical models, and large-scale models are sometimes used for international strategic agreements. Sometimes the modelled area entails several political entities and river basins. To avoid methodological bias in results, methods and databases should be homogenous across political and geophysical boundaries, but this may involve fewer details and more assumptions. This paper quantifies the uncertainty when the same model code is applied using two different input datasets; a more detailed one for the country of Sweden (S-HYPE) and a more general one for the entire Baltic Sea basin (Balt-HYPE). Results from the two model applications were compared for the Swedish landmass and for two specific Swedish river basins. The results show that both model applications may be useful in providing spatial information of water and nutrients at various scales. For water discharge, most relative errors are <10% for S-HYPE and <25% for Balt-HYPE. Both applications reproduced the most mean concentration for nitrogen within 25% of the observed mean values, but phosphorus showed a larger scatter. Differences in model set-up were reflected in the simulation of both spatial and temporal dynamics. The most sensitive data were precipitation/temperature, agriculture and model parameter values.

  • 19.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change2017In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 8, article id 62Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lidén, R.
    SMHI.
    Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations from agricultural catchments - influence of spatial and temporal variables2000In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 227, no 1-4, p. 140-159Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The eutrophication problem has drawn attention to nutrient leaching from arable land in southern Sweden, and further understanding of spatial and temporal variability is needed in order to develop decision-making tools. Thus, the influence of spatial and temporal variables was analysed statistically using empirical time series of different nutrient species from 35 well-documented catchments (2-35 km(2)), which have been monitored for an average of 5 years. In the spatial analysis several significant correlations between winter median concentrations and catchment characteristics were found. The strongest correlation was found between inorganic nitrogen and land use, while concentrations of different phosphorus species were highly correlated to soil texture. Multiple linear regression models gave satisfactory results for prediction of median winter concentrations in unmeasured catchments, especially for inorganic nitrogen and phosphate. In the analysis of temporal variability within catchments, internal variables from a dynamic hydrological model (HBV) were linked to concentration fluxes. It was found that phosphorus and inorganic nitrogen concentrations were elevated during flow increase at low-Bow conditions, while they were diluted as the wetness in the catchment increased. During unmonitored periods regression models were successful in predicting temporal variability of total phosphorus, phosphate and inorganic nitrogen, while organic nitrogen and particulate phosphorus could not be predicted with this approach. Dividing the data into different flow categories did not improve the prediction of nutrient concentration dynamics. The results and literature review presented, confirm parts of the present HBV-W model approach and will be useful for further development of nutrient routines linked to dynamic hydrological models. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 21.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911-2100)2015In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 19, no 2, p. 771-784Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the country (450 000 km(2)) with high-resolution dynamic model projections of the upcoming century. The results show that the changes in annual maximum daily flows in Sweden oscillate between dry and wet periods but exhibit no significant trend over the past 100 years. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver of changes in river high flows, which are related primarily to snowmelt in Sweden. Annual daily high flows may decrease by on average -1% per decade in the future, mainly due to lower peaks from snowmelt in the spring (-2% per decade) as a result of higher temperatures and a shorter snow season. In contrast, autumn flows may increase by + 3% per decade due to more intense rainfall. This indicates a shift in floodgenerating processes in the future, with greater influence of rain-fed floods. Changes in climate may have a more significant impact on some specific rivers than on the average for the whole country. Our results suggest that the temporal pattern in future daily high flow in some catchments will shift in time, with spring floods in the northern-central part of Sweden occurring about 1 month earlier than today. High flows in the southern part of the country may become more frequent. Moreover, the current boundary between snow-driven floods in northern-central Sweden and rain-driven floods in the south may move toward higher latitudes due to less snow accumulation in the south and at low altitudes. The findings also indicate a tendency in observations toward the modeled projections for timing of daily high flows over the last 25 years. Uncertainties related to both the observed data and the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology are discussed.

  • 22.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    A systematic review of sensitivities in the Swedish flood-forecasting system2011In: Atmospheric research, ISSN 0169-8095, E-ISSN 1873-2895, Vol. 100, no 2-3, p. 275-284Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Since the early 1970s operational flood forecasts in Sweden have been based on the hydrological HBV model. However, the model is only one component in a chain of processes for production of hydrological forecasts. During the last 35 years there has been considerable work on improving different parts of the forecast procedure and results from specific studies have been reported frequently. Yet, the results have not been compared in any overall assessment of potential for improvements. Therefore we formulated and applied a method for translating results from different studies to a common criterion of error reduction. The aim was to quantify potential improvements in a systems perspective and to identify in which part of the production chain efforts would result in significantly better forecasts. The most sensitive (> 20% error reduction) components were identified for three different operational-forecast types. From the analyses of historical efforts to minimise the errors in the Swedish flood-forecasting system, it was concluded that 1) general runoff simulations and predictions could be significantly improved by model structure and calibration, model equations (e.g. evapotranspiration expression), and new precipitation input using radar data as a complement to station gauges; 2) annual spring-flood forecasts could be significantly improved by better seasonal meteorological forecast, fresh re-calibration of the hydrological model based on long time-series, and data assimilation of snow-pack measurements using georadar or gamma-ray technique; 3) short-term (2 days) forecasts could be significantly improved by up-dating using an auto-regressive method for discharge, and by ensembles of meteorological forecasts using the median at occasions when the deterministic forecast is out of the ensemble range. The study emphasises the importance of continuously evaluating the entire production chain to search for potential improvements of hydrological forecasts in the operational environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 23.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lowgren, M
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Integrated catchment modeling for nutrient reduction: Scenarios showing impacts, potential, and cost of measures2005In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 34, no 7, p. 513-520Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A hydrological-based model (HBV-NP) was applied to a catchment (1900 km(2)) in the southern part of Sweden. Careful characterization of the present load situation and the potential for improved treatment or reduced soil leaching were analyzed. Several scenarios were modeled to find strategies to reach the Swedish environmental goals of reducing anthropogenic nitrogen load by 30% and phosphorus load by 20%. It was stated that the goals could be reached by different approaches that would affect different polluters and social sectors. However, no single measure was enough by itself. Instead, a combination of measures was necessary to achieve the goals. The nitrogen goal was the most difficult to attain. In order to be cost-effective, these measures should be applied to areas contributing the most to the net loading of the sea. This strategy could reduce the costs by 70%-80% when compared with implementing the measures in the entire catchment. Integrated catchment models may thus be helpful tools for reducing costs in environmental control programs.

  • 24.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Nilsson, Johanna
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Experimenting with Coupled Hydro-Ecological Models to Explore Measure Plans and Water Quality Goals in a Semi-Enclosed Swedish Bay2015In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 7, no 7, p. 3906-3924Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Measure plans are currently being developed for the Water Framework Directive (WFD) by European water authorities. In Sweden, such plans include measures for good ecological status in the coastal ecosystem. However, the effect of suggested measures is not yet known. We therefore experimented with different nutrient reduction measures on land and in the sea, using a model system of two coupled dynamic models for a semi-enclosed bay and its catchment. The science question was whether it is worthwhile to implement measures in the local catchment area to reach local environmental goals, or if the status of the Bay is more governed by the water exchange with the Sea. The results indicate that by combining several measures in the catchment, the nutrient load can be reduced by 15%-20%. To reach the same effect on nutrient concentrations in the Bay, the concentrations of the sea must be reduced by 80%. Hence, in this case, local measures have a stronger impact on coastal water quality. The experiment also show that the present targets for good ecological status set up by the Swedish water authorities may be unrealistic for this Bay. Finally, we discuss when and how to use hydro-ecological models for societal needs.

  • 25.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kväveretention i svenska sjöar och vattendrag – betydelse för utsläpp från reningsverk2007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report has been compiled on request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency to facilitate the discussion with the EU Commission. The EU Commission has announced that it will take Sweden to the European Court of Justice for failing to ensure proper treatment of urban waste water according to the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (Directive 91/271/EEC). In Sweden natural nitrogen removal (retention) in waterbodies is considered as part of the treatment of emissions, when transported to the sea. Nitrogen retention is a well-known phenomenon that includes several natural biogeochemical processes, which permanently remove nitrogen from the water. The effect may be considerable in areas with many lakes. Sweden has 92 000 lakes larger than 1 hectare. It is rather normal with 30-70% nitrogen retention in Swedish lakes and rivers. The main process for natural nitrogen retention is denitrification, which is the same process that is applied for biological treatment in waste water plants. Natural retention is hard to measure, however, and has to be estimated based on several assumptions like so many other fluxes in nature. In Sweden a model system has been developed for large-scale calculation of nutrient transport, including retention, from land to the sea, with relatively high geographic resolution. The system couples field-scale models with catchment models and is scientifically documented and reviewed. It has been applied since 1997 for international reporting to HELCOM. The catchment model (HBVNP) is tuned and evaluated against monitored time-series of measurements where such are available. The nitrogen retention that is calculated with HBV-NP is composed of nitrogen that is permanently transferred to the atmosphere and sediment, and which therefore will not further contribute to the eutrophication of water systems.

  • 26.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lessons learned? Effects of nutrient reductions from constructing wetlands in 1996–2006 across Sweden2016In: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, p. 1-11Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 27.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Torstensson, G
    Wittgren, Hans Bertil
    SMHI, Research Department.
    Landscape planning to reduce coastal eutrophication: agricultural practices and constructed wetlands2004In: Landscape and Urban Planning, ISSN 0169-2046, E-ISSN 1872-6062, Vol. 67, no 1-4, p. 205-215Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Southern Sweden suffers from coastal eutrophication and one reason is the high nitrogen load through rivers. The major part of this load originates from diffuse land-based sources, e.g. arable soil leaching. Effective reduction of load from such sources demand careful landscape analysis, combined with changed behaviour of the stakeholders. This study describes a chain of methods to achieve trustworthy management plans that are based on numerical modelling and stakeholders participation and acceptance. The effect of some measures was unexpected when modelling their impact on the catchment scale. Management scenarios to reduce riverine nitrogen load were constructed in an actor game (i.e. role-play) for the Genevadsan catchment in southern Sweden. The game included stakeholders for implementation of a loading standard for maximum nitrogen transport at the river mouth. Scenarios were defined after negotiation among involved actors and included changes in agricultural practices, improved wastewater treatment, and establishment of wetlands. Numerical models were used to calculate the nitrogen reduction for different measures in each scenario. An index model (STANK) calculated the root zone leaching of nitrogen from crops at four type farms. This generated input to a catchment scale model (HBV-N) and farm economics. The economic impact of different sets of remedial measures was evaluated for each type farm and then extrapolated to the catchment. The results from scenario modelling show that possible changes in agricultural practices (such as tuning, timing of fertilisation and ploughing, changed crop cultivation) could reduce the nitrogen load to the sea by some 30%, while wetland construction only reduced the original load by some 5%. In the most cost-effective scenario agricultural practices could reduce the riverine load by 86 t per year at a cost of 1.0 million SEK, while constructed wetlands only reduced the load by 14 t per year at a cost of 1.7 million SEK. Thus, changed agricultural practices can be the most effective and less expensive way to reduce nitrogen transport from land to the sea, while constructed wetlands with realistic allocations and sizes may only have small impact on riverine nitrogen transport from land to sea. The overall experience is that actor games and numerical modelling are useful tools in landscape planning for analysing stakeholders' behaviour and the impact of measures to reduce coastal eutrophication. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 28.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wittgren, H B
    Modelling nitrogen removal in potential wetlands at the catchment scale2002In: Ecological Engineering: The Journal of Ecotechnology, ISSN 0925-8574, E-ISSN 1872-6992, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 63-80Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The reduction of nitrogen fluxes from land to sea is an important task in areas with estuarine or marine eutrophication. Wetland creation has been proposed as one method to reduce nitrogen from streams draining agricultural areas. In this study, a scenario of nitrogen removal in created wetlands was evaluated by mathematical modelling of nitrogen fluxes in a catchment (224 km(2)) in southern Sweden. The scenario was based on topographically realistic siting of 40 potential wetlands with a total area of 0.92 km(2) (0.4% of the catchment area). Nitrogen removal in the wetlands was described with a simple and robust first-order model, which was modified and evaluated against data from eight monitored surface-flow wetlands. However, the modifications gave no substantial support for changing the basic model. For catchment-scale modelling this wetland model was incorporated into a dynamic process-based catchment model (HBV-N). The catchment was then divided to several coupled subbasins, so that the wetland influence on nitrogen load could be estimated separately for each potential wetland. The modelling showed that the 40 potential wetlands would reduce the nitrogen transport to the coast with approximately 6%. Specific removal rates ranged between 57 and 466 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) for the different wetlands, depending on residence time (size and hydraulic loading) and nitrogen concentration in inflow. Due to temperature dependence and seasonal variation in water discharge, significant decrease in nitrogen concentrations mainly occurred during summer periods with low loading. The study illustrates that catchment modelling is a useful method for analysing wetland creation plans, and that wetland creation must cover fairly large areas and be combined with other measures in order to achieve substantial reduction of nitrogen fluxes to coastal waters. Further monitoring of existing wetlands will improve the removal expression and decrease uncertainty. For instance, at present it could not be deducted whether wetlands with low average residence times ( < 2 days) have net removal or net resuspension on an annual basis. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 29.
    Arheimer, Berit
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wittgren, Hans Bertil
    SMHI, Research Department.
    MODELING THE EFFECTS OF WETLANDS ON REGIONAL NITROGEN TRANSPORT1994In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 23, no 6, p. 378-386Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Created wetlands have been suggested as a method to reduce nitrogen transport to the Baltic Sea. This paper presents a dynamic conceptual model for simulation of the hypothetical effect of wetlands on nitrogen export to the coastal zone. The study was performed in the Soder-kopingsan drainage basin (882 km(2)) in southeastern Sweden, discharging into the Baltic Sea. An empirically based routine for wetland retention was calibrated separately and incorporated in the model. Scenarios with different location and size of wetlands were analyzed. It was estimated that conversion of 1% (8.8 km(2)) of this basin into wetlands would reduce the nitrogen transport by 10-16% and that more than 5% (45 km(2)) conversion to wetlands is required to reduce the transport by 50%. It was concluded that creation of wetlands should be considered, primarily, downstream from major lakes, in coastal areas, and where the summer load is a significant portion of the annual load. Some further conclusions from the study were that: i) the net reduction of nitrogen transport per unit area of wetland decreases with increasing total area of wetlands in a drainage basin; ii) the wetland retention efficiency obtained in studies of individual wetlands can not be extrapolated in a linear fashion to estimate the net reduction of nitrogen transport at the mouth of a whole drainage basin; iii) the seasonal hydrological and hydrochemical dynamics are of fundamental importance for wetland retention efficiency, which complicates comparison and extrapolation of results from one region to another.

  • 30. Bloeschl, Guenter
    et al.
    Hall, Julia
    Parajka, Juraj
    Perdigao, Rui A. P.
    Merz, Bruno
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Aronica, Giuseppe T.
    Bilibashi, Ardian
    Bonacci, Ognjen
    Borga, Marco
    Canjevac, Ivan
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Chirico, Giovanni B.
    Claps, Pierluigi
    Fiala, Kayroly
    Frolova, Natalia
    Gorbachova, Liudmyla
    Gul, Ali
    Hannaford, Jamie
    Harrigan, Shaun
    Kireeva, Maria
    Kiss, Andrea
    Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
    Kohnova, Silvia
    Koskela, Jarkko J.
    Ledvinka, Ondrej
    Macdonald, Neil
    Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
    Mediero, Luis
    Merz, Ralf
    Molnar, Peter
    Montanari, Alberto
    Murphy, Conor
    Osuch, Marzena
    Ovcharuk, Valeryia
    Radevski, Ivan
    Rogger, Magdalena
    Salinas, Jose L.
    Sauquet, Eric
    Sraj, Mojca
    Szolgay, Jan
    Viglione, Alberto
    Volpi, Elena
    Wilson, Donna
    Zaimi, Klodian
    Zivkovic, Nenad
    Changing climate shifts timing of European floods2017In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 357, no 6351, p. 588-590Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 31. Ceola, S.
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Baratti, E.
    Bloeschl, G.
    Capell, Réne
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Castellarin, A.
    Freer, J.
    Han, D.
    Hrachowitz, M.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hutton, C.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Montanari, A.
    Nijzink, R.
    Parajka, J.
    Toth, E.
    Viglione, A.
    Wagener, T.
    Virtual laboratories: new opportunities for collaborative water science2015In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 19, no 4, p. 2101-2117Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Reproducibility and repeatability of experiments are the fundamental prerequisites that allow researchers to validate results and share hydrological knowledge, experience and expertise in the light of global water management problems. Virtual laboratories offer new opportunities to enable these prerequisites since they allow experimenters to share data, tools and pre-defined experimental procedures (i.e. protocols). Here we present the outcomes of a first collaborative numerical experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory to address the key issues of reproducibility and repeatability. Moving from the definition of accurate and detailed experimental protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied to 15 European catchments by the research groups and model results were collectively examined through a web-based discussion. We found that a detailed modelling protocol was crucial to ensure the comparability and reproducibility of the proposed experiment across groups. Our results suggest that sharing comprehensive and precise protocols and running the experiments within a controlled environment (e.g. virtual laboratory) is as fundamental as sharing data and tools for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility across the broad scientific community and thus advancing hydrology in a more coherent way.

  • 32.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Using flow signatures and catchment similarities to evaluate the E-HYPE multi-basin model across Europe2016In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 2, p. 255-273Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Open data make it possible to set up multi-basin models for large domains across environmental, climate and administrative boundaries. This study presents new methods for evaluating a number of aspects of multi-basin model performance, while exploring the performance of the E-HYPE_v2.1 model for several evaluation criteria in 181 independent river gauges across the European continent. Embedded model assumptions on dominant flow generating mechanisms are analysed by correlating physiographical characteristics to the flow regime. The results indicate that the model captures the spatial variability of flow and is therefore suitable for predictions in ungauged basins. The model shows good performance of long-term means and seasonality, while short-term daily variability is less well represented, especially for Mediterranean and mountainous areas. Major identified shortcomings refer to the resolution of precipitation patterns, aquifer exchanges, water extractions and regulation. This will guide the work with the next model version for which improvements in input data, processes and calibration have been identified to potentially contribute most to improved model performance. [GRAPHICS]

  • 33. Gelfan, Alexander
    et al.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Motovilov, Yury
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kalugin, Andrey
    Krylenko, Inna
    Lavrenov, Alexander
    Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 499-515Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 34. Gelfan, Alexander
    et al.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Motovilov, Yury
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kalugin,, Andrey
    Krylenko,, Inna
    Lavrenov, Alexander
    Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, p. 1-17Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 35. Gosling, S. N
    et al.
    Zaherpour, J.
    Mount, N.
    Hattermann, F. F.
    Dankers, R.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Breuer, L.
    Ding, J.
    Haddeland, I.
    Kumar, R.
    Kundu, D.
    Liu, J.
    van Griensven, A.
    Veldkamp, T.I.E.
    Vetter, T.
    Wang, X.
    Zhan, X.
    A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 36. Gosling, Simon N.
    et al.
    Zaherpour, Jamal
    Mount, Nick J.
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Dankers, Rutger
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Breuer, Lutz
    Ding, Jie
    Haddeland, Ingjerd
    Kumar, Rohini
    Kundu, Dipangkar
    Liu, Junguo
    van Griensven, Ann
    Veldkamp, Ted I. E.
    Vetter, Tobias
    Wang, Xiaoyan
    Zhang, Xinxin
    A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C (vol 141, pg 577, 2017)2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 597-598Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 37. Hall, J.
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Aronica, T.
    Bilibashi, A.
    Bohac, M.
    Bonacci, O.
    Borga, M.
    Burlando, P.
    Castellarin, A.
    Chirico, G. B.
    Claps, P.
    Fiala, K.
    Gaal, L.
    Gorbachova, L.
    Gul, A.
    Hannaford, J.
    Kiss, A.
    Kjeldsen, T.
    Kohnova, S.
    Koskela, J. J.
    Macdonald, N.
    Mavrova-Guirguinova, M.
    Ledvinka, O.
    Mediero, L.
    Merz, B.
    Merz, R.
    Molnar, P.
    Montanari, A.
    Osuch, M.
    Parajka, J.
    Perdigao, R. A. P.
    Radevski, I.
    Renard, B.
    Rogger, M.
    Salinas, J. L.
    Sauquet, E.
    Sraj, M.
    Szolgay, J.
    Viglione, A.
    Volpi, E.
    Wilson, D.
    Zaimi, K.
    Bloeschl, G.
    A European Flood Database: facilitating comprehensive flood research beyond administrative boundaries2015In: CHANGES IN FLOOD RISK AND PERCEPTION IN CATCHMENTS AND CITIES, 2015, p. 89-95Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border research collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exchange of data, models and expertise, and from existing international data collections and open source websites. These ongoing efforts are contributing to advancing the understanding of regional flood processes beyond individual country boundaries and to a more coherent flood research in Europe.

  • 38. Hall, J.
    et al.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Borga, M.
    Brazdil, R.
    Claps, P.
    Kiss, A.
    Kjeldsen, T. R.
    Kriauciuniene, J.
    Kundzewicz, Z. W.
    Lang, M.
    Llasat, M. C.
    Macdonald, N.
    McIntyre, N.
    Mediero, L.
    Merz, B.
    Merz, R.
    Molnar, P.
    Montanari, A.
    Neuhold, C.
    Parajka, J.
    Perdigao, R. A. P.
    Plavcova, L.
    Rogger, M.
    Salinas, J. L.
    Sauquet, E.
    Schaer, C.
    Szolgay, J.
    Viglione, A.
    Bloeschl, G.
    Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment2014In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 18, no 7, p. 2735-2772Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

  • 39. Hejzlar, J.
    et al.
    Anthony, S.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Behrendt, H.
    Bouraoui, F.
    Grizzetti, B.
    Groenendijk, P.
    Jeuken, M. H. J. L.
    Johnsson, H.
    Lo Porto, A.
    Kronvang, B.
    Panagopoulos, Y.
    Siderius, C.
    Silgram, M.
    Venohr, M.
    Zaloudik, J.
    Nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface waters: an inter-comparison of predictions by catchment models of different complexity2009In: Journal of Environmental Monitoring, ISSN 1464-0325, E-ISSN 1464-0333, Vol. 11, no 3, p. 584-593Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nitrogen and phosphorus retention estimates in streams and standing water bodies were compared for four European catchments by a series of catchment-scale modelling tools of different complexity, ranging from a simple, equilibrium input-output type to dynamic, physical-based models: source apportionment, MONERIS, EveNFlow, TRK, SWAT, and NL-CAT. The four catchments represent diverse climate, hydrology, and nutrient loads from diffuse and point sources in Norway, the UK, Italy, and the Czech Republic. The models' retention values varied largely, with tendencies towards higher scatters for phosphorus than for nitrogen, and for catchments with lakes (Vansjo-Hobol, Z. elivka) compared to mostly or entirely lakeless catchments (Ouse or Enza, respectively). A comparison of retention values with the size of nutrient sources showed that the modelled nutrient export from diffuse sources was directly proportional to retention estimates, hence implying that the uncertainty in quantification of diffuse catchment sources of nutrients was also related to the uncertainty in nutrient retention determination. This study demonstrates that realistic modelling of nutrient export from large catchments is very difficult without a certain level of measured data. In particular, even complex process oriented models require information on the retention capabilities of water bodies within the receiving surface water system and on the nutrient export from micro-catchments representing the major types of diffuse sources to surface waters.

  • 40. Hrachowitz, M.
    et al.
    Savenije, H. H. G.
    Bloeschl, G.
    McDonnell, J. J.
    Sivapalan, M.
    Pomeroy, J. W.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Blume, T.
    Clark, M. P.
    Ehret, U.
    Fenicia, F.
    Freer, J. E.
    Gelfan, A.
    Gupta, H. V.
    Hughes, D. A.
    Hut, R. W.
    Montanari, A.
    Pande, S.
    Tetzlaff, D.
    Troch, P. A.
    Uhlenbrook, S.
    Wagener, T.
    Winsemius, H. C.
    Woods, R. A.
    Zehe, E.
    Cudennec, C.
    A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)a review2013In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 58, no 6, p. 1198-1255Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), launched in 2003 and concluded by the PUB Symposium 2012 held in Delft (23-25 October 2012), set out to shift the scientific culture of hydrology towards improved scientific understanding of hydrological processes, as well as associated uncertainties and the development of models with increasing realism and predictive power. This paper reviews the work that has been done under the six science themes of the PUB Decade and outlines the challenges ahead for the hydrological sciences community.

  • 41.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    A regional parameter estimation scheme for a pan-European multi-basin model.2016In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 6, p. 90-111Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 42. Hutton, Christopher
    et al.
    Wagener, Thorsten
    Freer, Jim
    Han, Dawei
    Duffy, Chris
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Most computational hydrology is not reproducible, so is it really science?2016In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 52, no 10, p. 7548-7555Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 43. Hutton, Christopher
    et al.
    Wagener, Thorsten
    Freer, Jim
    Han, Dawei
    Duffy, Chris
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Reply to comment by Anel on "Most computational hydrology is not reproducible, so is it really science?"2017In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 53, no 3, p. 2575-2576Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 44. Hutton, Christopher
    et al.
    Wagener, Thorsten
    Freer, Jim
    Han, Dawei
    Duffy, Chris
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Reply to comment by Melsen et al. on "Most computational hydrology is not reproducible, so is it really science?"2017In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 53, no 3, p. 2570-2571Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 45. Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Cory, Neil
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    van der Velde, Ype
    Hasper, Thomas B.
    Teutschbein, Claudia
    Uddling, Johan
    Dominant effect of increasing forest biomass on evapotranspiration: interpretations of movement in Budyko space2018In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 1, p. 567-580Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 46. Jonsson, A.
    et al.
    Andersson, Lotta
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Alkan-Olsson, J.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    How participatory can participatory modeling be?: Degrees of influence of stakeholder and expert perspectives in six dimensions of participatory modeling2007In: Water Science and Technology, ISSN 0273-1223, E-ISSN 1996-9732, Vol. 56, no 1, p. 207-214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The authors are involved in a project aiming at the development of a methodology for participatory modeling as a tool for public participation in water resource management. In this paper, some examples of different degrees of stakeholder influence in six key dimensions of participatory modeling are identified and discussed. Arnstein's (A ladder of citizen participation. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 1969, 4, 216-224) critical discussion of different degrees of "real" decision-making power is taken as a point of departure to assess possible degrees of stakeholder influence. Can we as participatory modelers be sure that we are really inviting our research objects to an equal communicative relationship where local perspectives, knowledge and priorities are respected to the same extent as central and/or expert perspectives? This paper presents an approach that could be used as a tool for structured reflection to avoid unreflective tendencies towards expert knowledge dominance and low degree of stakeholders' real influence over the process.

  • 47. Krysanova, Valentina
    et al.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Gerten, Dieter
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hattermann, Fred
    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
    How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change2018In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 63, no 5, p. 696-720Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 48. Krysanova, Valentina
    et al.
    Vetter, Tobias
    Eisner, Stephanie
    Huang, Shaochun
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Strauch, Michael
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Kumar, Rohini
    Aich, Valentin
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Chamorro, Alejandro
    van Griensven, Ann
    Kundu, Dipangkar
    Lobanova, Anastasia
    Mishra, Vimal
    Plotner, Stefan
    Reinhardt, Julia
    Seidou, Ousmane
    Wang, Xiaoyan
    Wortmann, Michel
    Zeng, Xiaofan
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide-a synthesis2017In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 10, article id 105002Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 49.
    Kuentz, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wagener, Thorsten
    Understanding hydrologic variability across Europe through catchment classification2017In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 21, no 6, p. 2863-2879Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 50.
    Lindström, Göran
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Strömqvist, Johan
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Development and testing of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) water quality model for different spatial scales2010In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 41, no 3-4, p. 295-319Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The HYPE model is a hydrological model for small-scale and large-scale assessments of water resources and water quality, developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute during 2005-2007. In the model, the landscape is divided into classes according to soil type, land use and altitude. In agricultural lands the soil is divided into three layers, each with individual computations of soil wetness and nutrient processes. The model simulates water flow and transport and turnover of nitrogen and phosphorus. Nutrients follow the same pathways as water in the model: surface runoff, macropore flow, tile drainage and outflow from individual soil layers. Rivers and lakes are described separately with routines for turnover of nutrients in each environment. Model parameters are global, or coupled to soil type or land use. The model was evaluated both by local calibrations to internal variables from different test basins and to data on discharge and nutrients from a large number of small basins. In addition, the estimated parameters were transferred to two larger basins in southern Sweden: River Ronnea and River Vindan. The resulting simulations were generally in good agreement with observations.

12 1 - 50 of 77
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