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  • 1. Andersen, Jesper H.
    et al.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Backer, Hermanni
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Claussen, Ulrich
    Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi
    Jarvinen, Marko
    Kaartokallio, Hermanni
    Knuuttila, Seppo
    Korpinen, Samuli
    Kubiliute, Aiste
    Laamanen, Maria
    Lysiak-Pastuszak, Elzbieta
    Martin, Georg
    Murray, Ciaran
    Mohlenberg, Flemming
    Nausch, Guenther
    Norkko, Alf
    Villnas, Anna
    Getting the measure of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea: towards improved assessment principles and methods2011In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 106, no 2, p. 137-156Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The eutrophication status of the entire Baltic Sea is classified using a multi-metric indicator-based assessment tool. A total of 189 areas are assessed using indicators where information on reference conditions (RefCon), and acceptable deviation (AcDev) from reference condition could be combined with national monitoring data from the period 2001-2006. Most areas (176) are classified as 'affected by eutrophication' and only two open water areas and 11 coastal areas are classified as 'unaffected by eutrophication'. The classification is made by application of the recently developed HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT), which is described in this paper. The use of harmonized assessment principles and the HEAT tool allows for direct comparisons between different parts of the Baltic Sea despite variations in monitoring activities. The impaired status of 176 areas is directly related to nutrient enrichment and elevated loads from upstream catchments. Baltic Sea States have implemented nutrient management strategies since years which have reduced nutrient inputs. However, eutrophication is still a major problem for large parts of the Baltic Sea. The 2007 Baltic Sea Action Plan is projected to further reduce nutrient inputs aiming for a Baltic Sea unaffected by eutrophication by 2021.

  • 2. Andersen, Jesper H.
    et al.
    Murray, Ciaran
    Kaartokallio, Hermanni
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Molvaer, Jarle
    A simple method for confidence rating of eutrophication status classifications2010In: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 60, no 6, p. 919-924Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We report the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in ecological status classifications. The method presented here can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication or ecological status. The confidence assessment is based on scoring the quality of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. This represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision. Applied to an existing data set used for assessment of eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea (including the Kattegat and Danish Straits) we demonstrate that confidence in the assessment is Good or High in 149 out of 189 areas assessed (79%). Contrary to our expectations, assessments of the open parts of the Baltic Sea have a higher confidence than assessments of coastal waters. We also find that in open waters of the Baltic Sea, some biological indicators have a higher confidence than indicators representing physical-chemical conditions. In coastal waters, phytoplankton, submerged aquatic vegetation and indicators of physical-chemical conditions have a higher confidence than indicators of the quality of benthic invertebrate communities. Our analyses also show that the perceived weaknesses of eutrophication assessments are due more to Low confidence in reference conditions and acceptable deviations, rather than in the monitoring data. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 3.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Oceanographic applications of coastal radar2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report documents the 2010 Coastal Radar Workshop organised by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute with support from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The aim of the report is to provide background information on coastal oceanographic radar for a wider professional audience and to provide a basis for further Nordic cooperation in the field of oceanographic (coastal) radar with the ultimate aim of establishing a Nordic network covering (initially) the shared waters of the Skagerrak and Kattegat.Information on currents in near real time is seldom available when needed by many day to day applications and services. Data are needed for safe and efficient ship routing in narrow areas of hightraffic such as in the northern Kattegat, Danish Straits, Bornholm Strait and the Gulf of Finland. At the entrances of major ports and where [environmentally] dangerous cargos are carried currentinformation can be of crucial importance. For this reason the Swedish Maritime Administration maintains current observations in critical areas. However, these are point measurements and in the waters mentioned above topography may alter currents both in strength and direction in nearby areas. Hence, complementary spatial information on the behaviour of currents is preferable.Access to high quality, spatially resolved current information is critical both for effective oil spill containment and greatly increases the chances for successful outcomes of search and rescue operations. Combining data from models and observations will reduce the search area in rescue operations and make planning and combat of oil spill operations more efficient. In addition, areal near real time current observations are likely to promote research and development related to fish larvae transports, the spread of alien species, improve oceanographic models and lead to the better understanding of ocean and coastal sea processes.The present workshop highlights and extends the knowledge base on European and US experiences, user needs and available technical systems for areal current observations. Taking into account thatNordic views are usually coherent, opportunities to coordinate and cooperate in establishing and running an operational pilot system at a Nordic level seem realistic. The workshop intends to lay the foundation for carrying this work further.

  • 4.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Temporal and spatial monitoring of eutrophication variables in CEMP2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The OSPAR Revised Eutrophication Monitoring Programme (ETG 05/3/Info.1-E) requests that nutrient "monitoring should include sufficient samples to confirm that the maximum winter nutrient concentration has been determined", while para. 7 of the Terms of Reference for the preparation of guidance on the spatial and temporal resolution of monitoring for nutrients and eutrophication effects (ICG 003) states that "there are at least nine different water types covered by the OSPAR Maritime Area"..."guidance must, therefore, be at least complex enough to cover each type with sufficient clarity to guide contracting parties in their evaluation of the temporal and spatial coverage required to adequately assess the relevant water body".This document summarises the national reports submitted to the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Monitoring, and highlights common problems faced in the monitoring of (primarily) inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll. In addition, it presents tests of different approaches to solving the spatial and temporal sampling problems associated with delivering marine eutrophication data.Based on tests of model data, monthly sampling appears adequate to give a good estimate of annual mean concentrations. Buoy data suggests that this would not be sufficient where there is tidal variability. It was not possible to determine maximum concentrations through a practical ship sampling scheme, or by using extreme value statistics.The optimum sampling programme to observe rapid events is likely to be a combination of ferrybox systems, which appear to be reliable and give both good spatial and temporal coverage, combined with buoy observations. To ensure data of sufficient quality, these must be controlled against conventional research vessel observations. Research vessels still have a role in seasonal mapping, and in providing data of sufficient quality for trend analysis from a large area. This is likely to remain so, at leastuntil technologies such as gliders and optical nutrient sensors become widely available and capable of delivering reliable, high quality data.

  • 5.
    Axe, Philip
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hansson, Martin
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Håkansson, Bertil
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    The National Monitoring Programme in the Kattegat and Skagerrak2004Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    To facilitate the development of the OSPAR eutrophication monitoring programme, this report presents the statistical strength of trends reported in the 2002 Common Procedure Report1. After correcting nutrient records to a reference salinity of 30 psu (to compensate for the effects of dilution), ortho-phosphate concentration exhibits a significant negative trend in the inshore Kattegat and Skagerrak. Significant decreases in silicate were observed in all areas. These changes caused changes in Redfield and other nutrient ratios. Indirect indicators of eutrophication (autumn, bottom oxygen concentration; growing-season chlorophyll-a concentration) exhibited significant trends. Chlorophyll-a concentration increased in the Skagerrak, while oxygen concentration decreased in all areas, apart from the inshore Kattegat.Spatial characteristics of the study area were tested using probability mapping. The Kattegat was found to be well represented by 8 divisions, while 4 areas were suitable Skagerrak.Changes in the current monitoring programme were not recommended. Increasing sampling frequency could interfere with the statistical independence of measurements – an assumption for the validity of trend calculations. Filling gaps in the existing time series improves the statistical significance of observed trends. This requires effective data exchange between monitoring institutions, and possibly data archaeology.

  • 6.
    Axe, Philip
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Lindow, Helma
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Hydrographic Conditions Around Offshore Banks2005Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report details the results of an investigation into hydrographic and hydrochemical conditions over ten offshore banks around the coast of south Sweden. Four of these banks are situated in the Kattegat. The remainder lie in the southern and western Baltic Proper. The investigation included field sampling, where each bank was visited on one occasion, and the temperature and salinity structure mapped while the concentrations of nutrients were measured. These data were analysed, and results compared and complemented with predictions from operational numerical models (for currents and waves). The banks are areas with strong horizontal gradients in temperature and salinity. They influence the large scale circulation, steering mean currents through the deeper water, resulting in the mean currents over the banks being weak. The influence of short term wind events are significant however, with intense, short-lived currents occurring over the banks. Nutrient concentrations in the waters above the banks were very similar to those in the adjacent basins. Immediately over the bottom however, silicate concentrations were often higher than at similar depths away from the banks. Similarly, oxygen saturation immediately above the bottom was frequently lower than in mid-water at the same depth. In the Kattegat, large areas are at risk from seasonal oxygen deficiency. The shallow nature of the banks however often means that they escape the worst impacts.

  • 7.
    Axe, Philip
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Wesslander, Karin
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Kronsell, Johan
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Confidence rating for OSPAR COMP2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    With the adoption of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the Water Framework Directive, EU Member States are obliged to achieve “Good” or “Good Environmental” Status within a certain time frame, or be obliged to take remedial action. There is therefore a need to quantify the quality of the monitoring programmes on which such status assessments are based, as a part of assessing the confidence in the status assessment. Within the framework of the OSPAR Convention on the Protection of the North East Atlantic, Germany and the Netherlands presented a suggestion for how such an assessment could be made. This report documents the application of this methodology to stations in the Swedish National Monitoring Programme within the OSPAR area, and also within the Sound, which may in future be included in the Greater North Sea region under the Marine Strategy Directive. The variability of eutrophication parameters with salinity was examined. In the Kattegat, inorganic nutrient variability was least at the highest salinities, suggesting that a reliable status assessment could be made more easily with data from this region, for example, rather than in the dynamic near coast region. Assessing the coverage of the existing monitoring programme, it was found that horizontal gradients in assessment parameters (generally seasonal averages) varied by less than about 30% between stations, which suggests that the programme has reasonable spatial coverage, though additional stations would improve matters. Looking at each station individually, the current vertical sampling resolution appears adequate for most parameters, apart from chlorophyll a and inorganic nutrients during the growing season. Temporal coverage is adequate for the total nutrient concentrations, but is insufficient for the inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll a, as well as for the deep water oxygen concentration in the Sound. The poor temporal coverage of chlorophyll a and inorganic nutrients could be relatively easily improved by the addition of a two channel (nitrate + nitrite, and orthophosphate) autoanalyser onto the existing ferrybox platforms in use in these waters. Addressing these problems using traditional measuring platforms and buoys would be more costly. The poor temporal coverage of chlorophyll a and inorganic nutrients could be relatively easily improved by the addition of a two channel (nitrate + nitrite, and orthophosphate) autoanalyser onto the existing ferrybox platforms in use in these waters. Addressing these problems using traditional measuring platforms and buoys would be more costly.

  • 8.
    Cato, Ingemar
    et al.
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Håkansson, Bertil
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hallberg, Ola
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Kjellin, Bernt
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Andersson, Pia
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Erlandsson, Cecilia
    Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU),.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    A new approach to state the areas of oxygen deficits in the Baltic Sea2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sediment and near bottom water oxygen data was evaluated to look for correspondence in anoxic conditions. The SGU and SMHI monitoring data showed high correlation, although the actual data tested proved to be few, coincidence in space was promising. The conclusion drawn from the evaluation is that anoxic postglacial sediments were generally overlaid by near bottom anoxic waters. Hence, it is suggested that the spatial distribution of postglacial clays in the sea-bottom surface can be used, together with near bottom waters oxygen data, to improve spatial distribution in mapping oxygen deficits.Time series of oxygen deficit volume and area was calculated from near bottom data from several sub basins in the southern and central Baltic Proper. In general, hypoxic and anoxic water conditions increased over time but perturbations of improved oxygen conditions linked to major inflow events occurs especially in the Bornholm, Eastern and Western Gotland Basins.The high spatial variability of the postglacial sediments in the Western Gotland Basin compared to other basins indicates that it is indeed sensitive to the area coverage of anoxic waters. In addition, the relatively weak stratification and high variability over time of oxygen deficit make this basin favourable for oxygen improvement engineering methods.In coastal waters several bays along the Östergötland and Småland archipelagos should be further evaluated before selected for ecological engineering methods to improve oxygen conditions.

  • 9. Conley, Daniel J.
    et al.
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Aigars, Juris
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Eremina, Tatjana
    Haahti, Britt-Marie
    Humborg, Christoph
    Jonsson, Per
    Kotta, Jonne
    Lannegren, Christer
    Larsson, Ulf
    Maximov, Alexey
    Medina, Miguel Rodriguez
    Lysiak-Pastuszak, Elzbieta
    Remeikaite-Nikiene, Nijole
    Walve, Jakob
    Wilhelms, Sunhild
    Zillen, Lovisa
    Hypoxia Is Increasing in the Coastal Zone of the Baltic Sea2011In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 45, no 16, p. 6777-6783Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hypoxia is a well-described phenomenon in the offshore waters of the Baltic Sea with both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia known to have increased due to anthropogenic eutrophication, however, an unknown amount of hypoxia is present in the coastal zone. Here we report on the widespread unprecedented occurrence of hypoxia across the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. We have identified 115 sites that have experienced hypoxia during the period 1955-2009 increasing the global total to ca. 500 sites, with the Baltic Sea coastal zone containing over 20% of all known sites worldwide. Most sites experienced episodic hypoxia, which is a precursor to development of seasonal hypoxia. The Baltic Sea coastal zone displays an alarming trend with hypoxia steadily increasing with time since the 1950s effecting nutrient biogeochemical processes, ecosystem services, and coastal habitat.

  • 10.
    Hansson, Martin
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Andersson, Lars
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Areal Extent and Volume of Anoxia and Hypnoxia in the Baltic Sea, 1960-20112011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A climatology atlas of the oxygen situation in the deep water of the Baltic Sea from 1960 to 2011 has been created based on all available data from ICES. Additional data collected during the Baltic International Acoustic Survey (BIAS) have been added to the year 2011. For the autumn period, each profile in the data set was examined for the occurrence of hypoxia (oxygen deficiency) and anoxia (total absence of oxygen). The depths of the onset of hypoxia and anoxia were then interpolated between sampling stations producing two surfaces representing the depth at which hypoxic and anoxic conditions are found. The volume and area of hypoxia and anoxia have been calculated and the results have then been transformed to maps and diagrams to visualize the annual autumn oxygen situation during the analysed period. From the analysed oxygen data 1960-2011 a distinct regime shift has been identified in 1999. During the first regime, 1960 to 1999, hypoxia affected large areas and volumes while anoxic conditions affected only minor deep areas. After the regime shift in 1999 both the areal extent and volume of hypoxia and anoxia are elevated to levels never recorded before. The bottom areas of the Baltic Proper (including the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga) affected by anoxic conditions have increased from 5%, before the regime shift, to 15% after, i.e. by a factor of 3. The extent of hypoxia has increased from 22% to 28%, i.e. by a factor of ~1.3. Excluding the results from 2011, which are preliminary, the largest areal extent of anoxia, 18%, in the Baltic Proper was recorded in 2005 and the largest affected water volume, 10%, was recorded in 2001. The cause and ecosystem effects of the new behaviour of the Baltic Sea that has been recognized after the regime shift, with continuously extreme oxygen conditions, are still not fully understood. However, there are several likely contributory and concurrent causes to the recent development such as changes in winds, changes in frequency and characteristics of inflows, increased loading of organic matter to the deep water, altered vertical mixing and stratification, and changed freshwater runoff. Historically, the oxygen development in the deep water of the Baltic Sea has been investigated in detail and most of the processes involved, both physical and chemical, have been described. But the development during the 2000s is alarming and should be investigated thoroughly. The areal extent and volume of hypoxia have today probably reached the maximal possible extent due to the permanent stratification in the Baltic Proper. However, the extent and volume of anoxic conditions can still increase, which further can enhance the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea due to released phosphorus from sediments that previously have been oxygenated. Sammanfattning En klimatologisk atlas av syresituationen i Östersjöns djupvatten från 1960 till 2011 har skapats baserad på all tillgänglig data från ICES. Ytterligare data från Baltic International Acoustic Survey (BIAS) har inkluderats separat för 2011. Förekomsten av hypoxi (syrebrist) och anoxi (helt syrefria förhållanden) under höstperioden har undersökts i varje mätprofil. Djupet då hypoxi eller anoxi först påträffas i en profil har interpolerats mellan provtagningsstationer och kombinerats med en djupdatabas för beräkning av utbredning och volym av hypoxiska och anoxiska förhållanden. Resultaten har överförts till kartor och diagram för att visualisera syresituationen i Östersjöns djupvatten. Utifrån analyserade data från perioden 1960-2011 har ett distinkt regimskifte skett 1999. Under den första regimen, från 1960 till 1999, påverkade hypoxi stora områden och volymer, medan anoxi enbart påverkade mindre djupområden. Efter regimskiftet 1999 har andelen hypoxi och anoxi förhöjts till nivåer som aldrig tidigare observerats i Östersjöns djupvatten. Utbredningen av bottnar påverkade av anoxi har i medeltal ökat från 5% av Egentliga Östersjöns (inklusive Finska viken och Rigabukten) bottenarea till 15%, i och med regimskiftet, d.v.s. med en faktor 3. Utbredningen av hypoxi har också ökat från 22% till 28% d.v.s. med en faktor ~1.3. Den största utbredningen av anoxi, 18%, i Egentliga Östersjön observerades 2005 och den största påverkade vattenvolymen, 10%, noterades 2001. Utvecklingen i Östersjön med fortsatt extrema syreförhållanden efter regimskiftet och dess orsaker och konsekvenser för Östersjöns ekosystem är idag inte helt klarlagd. Det finns emellertid flera troliga orsaker som kan samverka såsom; förändrade vindförhållanden, förändrad frekvens och karaktäristik av inflöden, ökad belastning av organiskt material till djupvattnet, förändrad vertikal omblandning samt skiktning och ändrad tillrinning till Östersjön. Historiskt så har syreförhållanden i Östersjön undersökts i detalj och de flesta processer, både fysiska och kemiska finns beskrivna. Men utvecklingen under 2000-talet är alarmerande och måste noggrant undersökas. Utbredningen och volymen av hypoxi har idag (2011) antagligen nått den övre gränsen för vad som är fysiskt möjligt med den permanenta skiktning som finns i Östersjön. De anoxiska förhållandena kan dock fortsatt öka om den negativa utvecklingen fortsätter, vilket ytterligare kan förvärra övergödningsproblematiken i Östersjön då mer fosfor kan frigöras från bottnar som tidigare varit syresatta.

  • 11.
    Hansson, Martin
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Andersson, Lars
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Szaron, Jan
    SMHI.
    Oxygen Survey in the Baltic Sea 2012: Extent of Anoxia and Hypoxia, 1960-20122013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    En klimatologisk atlas av syresituationen i Östersjöns djupvatten publicerades 2011 i SMHIs Report Oceanography No 42. Resultaten för 2011 var preliminära och har i denna rapport uppdaterats då ny data har rapporterats till ICES. Resultaten för 2012 är preliminära och är baserade på syredata insamlade under Baltic International Acoustic Survey (BIAS) med bidrag från Sverige, Polen, Estland och Finland. Data från SMHIs egna ordinarie expeditioner har också inkluderats.Förekomsten av hypoxi (syrebrist) och anoxi (helt syrefria förhållanden) under höstperioden, augusti till oktober, har undersökts i varje mätprofil. Djupet då hypoxi eller anoxi först påträffas i en profil har interpolerats mellan provtagningsstationer och kombinerats med en djupdatabas för beräkning av utbredning och volym av hypoxiska och anoxiska förhållanden. Resultaten har överförts till kartor och diagram för att visualisera syresituationen i Östersjöns djupvatten.Resultaten för 2011 och de preliminära resultaten för 2012 visar att de extrema syreförhållanden som observerat i Egentliga Östersjön efter regimskiftet 1999 fortsätter. Andelen områden påverkade av hypoxi och anoxi fortsätter att vara förhöjda till nivåer som aldrig tidigare observerats i Östersjöns djupvatten.

  • 12.
    Håkansson, Bertil
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lindahl, Odd
    Kristineberg Marine Research Station.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    SMHI.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Swedish National Report on Eutrophication Status in the Kattegat and the Skagerrak: OSPAR ASSESSMENT 20072007Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The surface area of the Kattegat and the Skagerrak, located in the eastern North Sea, is about 22 000 km2 and 32 000 km2, and the mean depth is about 23 m and 210 m, respectively. The Skagerrak and the Kattegat forms the inner end of the Norwegian trench, which has the characteristics of a deep (700 m) fjord connecting the Baltic Sea with theNorwegian Sea (e.g. Rodhe, 1987). The sill depth of the fjord is about 270 m. The Kattegat offshore and inshore waters were identified as problem areas, whereas the Inshore Skagerrak waters the OSPAR categories I - IV indicate a slight incoherence in the assessment, although with an overalljudgement to be identifi ed as a problem area. The offshore Skagerrak was identified as a non problem area, according to the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. (OSPAR Commission, 2005).

  • 13.
    Karlson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Funquist, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kaitala, Seppo
    FIMR, Finnish Institute for Marine Research/SYKE Marine Centre.
    Sørensen, Kai
    NIVA, Norwegian Institute for Water Research.
    Infrastructure for marine monitoring and operational oceanography2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Automated systems for observing physical, chemical and biological conditions in the sea are being implemented worldwide as part of the Global Ocean Observing System. This report describes their use in the Baltic and the Skagerrak-Kattegat areas. An evaluation of the use of FerryBox systems in the waters around Sweden shows that the quality of data from near surface waters is high, and that the frequent sampling makes possible observations of short term phenomena such as algal blooms. These events are often overlooked by infrequent sampling using research vessels, which leads to erroneous estimates of phytoplankton biomass, ecosystem carrying capacity etc. Data come from the Helsinki Lübeck route, operated by the Finnish Institute for Marine Research and from routes in the Skagerrak- Kattegat operated by the Norwegian Institute for Water Research. FerryBox data were compared with data from traditional sampling, principally from RV Argos operated by SMHI, but also from the HELCOM databank at ICES.Observations using automated systems such as satellites, stationary platforms (buoys and piles) and FerryBox systems may contribute substantially to improving the quality of results from models describing the physical and biogeochemical conditions in Scandinavian waters. Boundary conditions for models can be obtained using measurements in the eastern North Sea and in the Skagerrak, while data assimilation from a network of buoys, FerryBoxsystems and research vessels improves the quality of model results. Today, between four and six automated oceanographic observation systems are in operation in Swedish waters, which can be compared to more than 700 for meteorological purposes. A dramatic increase in the number of observations is necessary for effective data assimilation. To make the observations useful for biogeochemical models, parameters such as inorganic nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and oxygen must be added to the basic parameters salinity and temperature.A detailed proposal for a new infrastructure for marine monitoring and operational oceanography in Sweden is put forward. FerryBox systems should be operated in collaboration with institutes in Finland, Estonia, Poland, Germany, Denmark and Norway. Coastal buoys contribute to the monitoring needs of the EU Water Framework Directive while offshore buoys are for long term climate and ecological research and for fulfilment of the EU Marine Strategy Directive . Products combining satellite data with in-situ observations should be developed. These automated systems augment monitoring using research vessels but do not replace it. SMHI, the Swedish Institute for the Marine Environment, the Swedish Water Authorities, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Swedish Navy, Coast guard, Maritime Administration and Board of Fisheries are proposed to govern and operate the system, with SMHI as the lead partner. The function -National data host for operational oceanographic data- is proposed, to be established at the National Oceanographic Data Centre at SMHI.A number of indicators for describing the status of the pelagic environment around Sweden are proposed. Some already exist while some are new. New ones include indicators for acidification, changes in plankton community structure and physical climate indicators. Basin wide indicators are based on measurements using a combination of sampling platforms. Other indicators are more specific, e.g. for transport between basins and inflow of water to the deep basins of the Baltic Proper.This report was commissioned by the Swedish National Environment Protection Agency

  • 14. Moellmann, Christian
    et al.
    Diekmann, Rabea
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Kornilovs, Georgs
    Plikshs, Maris
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea2009In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 15, no 6, p. 1377-1393Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure and function. Recently, studies demonstrated the existence of alternative stable states in various terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These so-called ecosystem regime shifts have been explained mainly as a result of multiple causes, e.g. climatic regime shifts, overexploitation or a combination of both. The occurrence of ecosystem regime shifts has important management implications, as they can cause significant losses of ecological and economic resources. Because of hysteresis in ecosystem responses, restoring regimes considered as favourable may require drastic and expensive management actions. Also the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto- and zooplankton as well as fisheries data. Our analyses of 52 biotic and abiotic variables using multivariate statistics demonstrated a major reorganization of the ecosystem and identified two stable states between 1974 and 2005, separated by a transition period in 1988-1993. We show the change in Baltic ecosystem structure to have the characteristics of a discontinuous regime shift, initiated by climate-induced changes in the abiotic environment and stabilized by fisheries-induced feedback loops in the food web. Our results indicate the importance of maintaining the resilience of an ecosystem to atmospherically induced environmental change by reducing the anthropogenic impact.

  • 15.
    Wesslander, Karin
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Andersson, Lars
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Johansson, Johannes
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Linders, Johanna
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nexelius, Nils
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Skjevik, Ann-Turi
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Swedish National Report on Eutrophication Status in the Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Sound - OSPAR ASSESSMENT 20162017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish OSPAR waters were assessed by applying the OSPAR Common Procedure for the time period 2006 – 2014. The Swedish parts of Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Sound constitute the outer part of the transition zone between the estuarine Baltic Sea and the oceanic North Sea and were investigated for nutrients, chlorophyll-a,oxygen, macrophytes, phytoplankton and zoobenthos. The conclusion from the overall assessment of the Swedish OSPAR waters was that only Skagerrak open sea could be classified as a Non-Problem Area and all other assessment units were classified as Problem Areas.  Atmospheric input of nitrogen significantly decreased in both Skagerrak and Kattegat and the land based input of total nutrients also decreased in Skagerrak, Kattegat as well as the Sound. However, the short-term trend of nitrogen input to the Sound was positive. Skagerrak is governed by trans-boundary transports from the North Sea of mainly nitrogen but also phosphorus. Kattegat receives trans-boundary nutrients from both the Baltic Sea through the Sound and from Skagerrak and transports nutrients towards the coast and the western part of the basin.  Overall, concentrations of DIN, DIP, TN and chlorophyll-a decreased in most areas, however, no significant trends were found for DIP. Increasing concentrations were found in silicate, POC and TP. The Secchi depth increased in most areas. Oxygen deficiency was mainly a problem in the fjords and the Kattegat open sea.  In Skagerrak coastal waters winter nutrients were only elevated in the fjords. Concentrations of DIN generally decreased significantly and there were tendencies of decreasing DIP. This pattern was also supported by the total nitrogen while total phosphorus increased. Secchi depth was improving and there was a significant positive trend of increasing depths. However, zoobenthos were still in bad condition and phytoplankton indicator species were often elevated. Chlorophyll-a concentrations were generally decreasing but still elevated in the inner coastal waters. There were also problems with algal toxins such as DST (Diarrhetic Shellfish Toxin) and PST (Paralystic Shellfish Toxin) infections in the area. According to the OSPAR classification scheme, a unit with no evident increased nutrient enrichment can be classified as a Problem Area but the cause might be due to trans-boundary transport from adjacent areas. In the open area of Kattegat there were still problems with oxygen deficiency, especially in the southern parts, even though the trend was significantly positive for the assessment period 2006 – 2014. Concentrations of chlorophyll-a and DIN decreased significantly, however, DIN levels were still generally elevated, especially in the southern parts of Kattegat while DIP was closer to the assessment level. In Kattegat coastal waters winter nutrients were elevated in all assessment units, except from the inner coastal waters, even though there was a general pattern of decreasing going trends. Chlorophyll-a was mainly elevated in the Sound and the estuaries. Secchi depth is generally improving and a significant increase was seen in the Sound. Also in Kattegat, zoobenthos were in bad condition and phytoplankton indicator species were often elevated. 

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