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  • 1.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Modelling nutrient retention in the coastal zone of an eutrophic sea2016In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 13, no 20, p. 5753-5769Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 2.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hall, Per O. J.
    Transport of fresh and resuspended particulate organic material in the Baltic Sea - a model study2011In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 87, no 1, p. 1-12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A fully coupled high-resolution 3-dimensional biogeochemical-physical ocean model including an empirical wave model was used to investigate the long-term average (1970-2007) distributions and transports of resuspended matter and other types of suspended organic matter in the Baltic Sea. Modelled bottom types were compared to observations and the results showed that the model successfully managed to capture the horizontal, as well as the vertical, distribution of the different bottom types: accumulation, transport and erosion bottoms. The model also captured well the nutrient element contents in the sediments. On average the largest contribution of resuspended organic carbon to the transport of total organic carbon is found at erosion and transport bottoms. Although the relative transport of resuspended organic carbon at deeper accumulation bottoms in general is low (< 10% of total), the central parts of the sub-basins act on average as sinks that import organic matter while the more shallow areas and the coastal regions acts as sources of organic carbon in the water column. This indicates that the particulate organic matter produced in erosion and transport areas might be kept in suspension long enough to be transported and settle in less energetic areas, i.e. on accumulation bottoms. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 3.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Hall, Per O. J.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea2015In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 144, p. 127-141Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980-2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59 x 10(3) t P year(-1) and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60-150 m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43 x 10(3) t P year(-1). For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19 x 10(3) t P year(-1). In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7 x 10(3) t P year(-1). The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

  • 4. Andersson, Agneta
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Ripszam, Matyas
    Rowe, Owen
    Wikner, Johan
    Haglund, Peter
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Legrand, Catherine
    Figueroa, Daniela
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Paczkowska, Joanna
    Lindehoff, Elin
    Tysklind, Mats
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, p. S345-S356Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 degrees C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase similar to 30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

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  • 5. Bartolino, Valerio
    et al.
    Tian, Huidong
    Bergstrom, Ulf
    Jounela, Pekka
    Aro, Eero
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Cardinale, Massimiliano
    Bland, Barbara
    Casini, Michele
    Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population2017In: PLOS ONE, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 2, article id e0172004Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 6. Bauer, Barbara
    et al.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Hyytiainen, Kari
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Mueller-Karulis, Baerbel
    Saraiva, Sofia
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea2019In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1337-1349Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 7. Bauer, Barbara
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Casini, Michele
    Hoff, Ayoe
    Margonski, Piotr
    Orio, Alessandro
    Saraiva, Sofia
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Steenbeek, Jeroen
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries: a model case study2018In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 75, no 4, p. 1306-1317Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 8. Bauer, Barbara
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Casini, Michele
    Hoff, Ayoe
    Margonski, Piotr
    Orio, Alessandro
    Saraiva, Sofia
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Steenbeek, Jeroen
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries: a model case study (vol 75, pg 1155, 2018)2018In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 75, no 3, p. 1155-1155Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 9. Boergel, Florian
    et al.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Neumann, Thomas
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation controls the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on North European climate2020In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 15, no 10, article id 104025Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    European climate is heavily influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, the spatial structure of the NAO is varying with time, affecting its regional importance. By analyzing an 850-year global climate model simulation of the last millennium it is shown that the variations in the spatial structure of the NAO can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO changes the zonal position of the NAO centers of action, moving them closer to Europe or North America. During AMO+ states, the Icelandic Low moves further towards North America while the Azores High moves further towards Europe and vice versa for AMO- states. The results of a regional downscaling for the East Atlantic/European domain show that AMO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO reduce or enhance its influence on regional climate variables of the Baltic Sea such as sea surface temperature, ice extent, or river runoff.

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  • 10. Boergel, Florian
    et al.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Neumann, Thomas
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Baltic Sea Variability2018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 18, p. 9880-9888Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11. Boergel, Florian
    et al.
    Groeger, Matthias
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dutheil, Cyril
    Radtke, Hagen
    Borchert, Leonard
    The impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Baltic Sea temperatures limited to winter2023In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, E-ISSN 2397-3722, Vol. 6, no 1, article id 64Article in journal (Refereed)
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    The impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Baltic Sea temperatures limited to winter
  • 12. Boergel, Florian
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groeger, Matthias
    Rhein, Monika
    Dutheil, Cyril
    Kaiser, Jan Moritz
    Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation2022In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 17, no 4, article id 044040Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation
  • 13. Burchard, Hans
    et al.
    Craig, Peter D.
    Gemmrich, Johannes R.
    van Haren, Hans
    Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Smith, W. Alex M. Nimmo
    Prandke, Hartmut
    Rippeth, Tom P.
    Skyllingstad, Eric D.
    Smyth, William D.
    Welsh, David J. S.
    Wijesekera, Hemantha W.
    Observational and numerical modeling methods for quantifying coastal ocean turbulence and mixing2008In: Progress in Oceanography, ISSN 0079-6611, E-ISSN 1873-4472, Vol. 76, no 4, p. 399-442Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this review paper, state-of-the-art observational and numerical modeling methods for small scale turbulence and mixing with applications to coastal oceans are presented in one context. Unresolved dynamics and remaining problems of field observations and numerical simulations are reviewed on the basis of the approach that modern process-oriented studies should be based on both observations and models. First of all, the basic dynamics of surface and bottom boundary layers as well as intermediate stratified regimes including the interaction of turbulence and internal waves are briefly discussed. Then, an overview is given on just established or recently emerging mechanical, acoustic and optical observational techniques. Microstructure shear probes although developed already in the 1970s have only recently become reliable commercial products. Specifically under surface waves turbulence measurements are difficult due to the necessary decomposition of waves and turbulence. The methods to apply Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) for estimations of Reynolds stresses, turbulence kinetic energy and dissipation rates are under further development. Finally, applications of well-established turbulence resolving particle image velocimetry (PIV) to the dynamics of the bottom boundary layer are presented. As counterpart to the field methods the state-of-the-art in numerical modeling in coastal seas is presented. This includes the application of the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) method to shallow water Langmuir Circulation (LC) and to stratified flow over a topographic obstacle. Furthermore, statistical turbulence closure methods as well as empirical turbulence parameterizations and their applicability to coastal ocean turbulence and mixing are discussed. Specific problems related to the combined wave-current bottom boundary layer are discussed. Finally, two coastal modeling sensitivity studies are presented as applications, a two-dimensional study of upwelling and downwelling and a three-dimensional study for a marginal sea scenario (Baltic Sea). It is concluded that the discussed methods need further refinements specifically to account for the complex dynamics associated with the presence of surface and internal waves. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 14. Christensen, Ole Bossing
    et al.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groeger, Matthias
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 21002022In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 13, no 1, p. 133-157Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
  • 15. Conley, Daniel J.
    et al.
    Bjorck, Svante
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Destouni, Georgia
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Hietanen, Susanna
    Kortekaas, Marloes
    Kuosa, Harri
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Mueller-Karulis, Baerbel
    Nordberg, Kjell
    Norkko, Alf
    Nuernberg, Gertrud
    Pitkanen, Heikki
    Rabalais, Nancy N.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Slomp, Caroline P.
    Voss, Maren
    Wulff, Fredrik
    Zillen, Lovisa
    Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea2009In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 43, no 10, p. 3412-3420Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hypoxia, a growing worldwide problem, has been intermittently present in the modern Baltic Sea since its formation ca. 8000 cal. yr BP. However, both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia have increased with anthropogenic eutrophication due to nutrient inputs. Physical processes, which control stratification and the renewal of oxygen in bottom waters, are important constraints on the formation and maintenance of hypoxia. Climate controlled inflows of saline water from the North Sea through the Danish Straits is a critical controlling factor governing the spatial extent and duration of hypoxia. Hypoxia regulates the biogeochemical cycles of both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in the water column and sediments. Significant amounts of P are currently released from sediments, an order of magnitude larger than anthropogenic inputs. The Baltic Sea is unique for coastal marine ecosystems experiencing N losses in hypoxic waters below the halocline. Although benthic communities in the Baltic Sea are naturally constrained by salinity gradients, hypoxia has resulted in habitat loss over vast areas and the elimination of benthic fauna, and has severely disrupted benthic food webs. Nutrient load reductions are needed to reduce the extent, severity, and effects of hypoxia.

  • 16. Deng, Junjie
    et al.
    Harff, Jan
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate2015In: OCEANOLOGICAL AND HYDROBIOLOGICAL STUDIES, ISSN 1730-413X, Vol. 44, no 3, p. 362-380Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.

  • 17.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Väli, Germo
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Evaluation of the SMHI coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCA4-NEMO2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    AbstractThe regional, coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCA4-NEMO developed at the SMHI is evaluated on the basis of an ERA40 hindcast. While the development of the regional climate model is continuing a first assessment is presented here to allow for an orientation about the status guo. RCA4-NEMO in its present form consists of two model components. The regional atmosphere model RCA4 covers the whole of Europe and is interactvely coupled to a North Sea and Baltic Sea ice-ocean model based on NEMO. RCA4-NEMO is currently being used to downscale CMIP5 scenarios for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region for this century. As a part of the validation of RCA4-NEMO we present an analysis and discussion of the hindcast period 1970-1999. The model realization is compared to observational records. Near surface temperatures and heat fluxes compare reasonably well with records of in-situ measurments and satellite derived estimates. For salinities and freshwater fluxes the agreement with observations in not satisfactory yet. The momentum fluxes transferred from the atmosphere to the ice-ocean model are identified as on of the sensitive processes in the coupling of both model components. Except for the freshwater exchange between atmosphere and ocean the climatological near surface properties and corresponding fluxes compare well with climatological estimates for the period 1970-1999.

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  • 18.
    Dieterich, Christian
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Klein, Birgit
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations2019In: Atmosphere, ISSN 2073-4433, E-ISSN 2073-4433, Vol. 10, no 5, article id 272Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 19.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    The development of the coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO2001In: Third study conference on BALTEX / [ed] J. Meywerk, 2001, p. 45-46Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 20.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea2004In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, no 4-5, p. 242-248Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The physical state of the Baltic Sea in possible future climates is approached by numerical model experiments with a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model driven by different global simulations. Scenarios and recent climate simulations are compared to estimate changes. The sea surface is clearly warmer by 2.9degreesC in the ensemble mean. The horizontal pattern of average annual mean warming can largely be explained in terms of ice-cover reduction. The transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the Baltic Sea shows a changed seasonal cycle: a reduced heat loss in fall, increased heat uptake in spring, and reduced heat uptake in summer. The interannual variability of surface temperature is generally increased. This is associated with a smoothed frequency distribution in northern basins. The overall heat budget shows increased solar radiation to the sea surface, which is balanced by changes of the other heat flux components.

  • 21.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Simulated Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice in Different Climates of the Baltic2004In: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, Vol. 4, p. 162-163Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 22.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willen, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO2002In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 183-192Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice general circulation model for northern Europe is introduced for climate study purposes. The Baltic Sea is interactively coupled. The coupled model is validated in a 5-year hind-cast experiment with a focus on surface quantities and atmosphere-ocean heat fluxes. The coupled sea surface temperature matches observations well. The system is free of drift, does not need flux corrections and is suitable for multi-year climate runs. With flux forcing from the atmospheric model the regional ocean model gives sea surface temperatures statistically equivalent to the uncoupled ocean model forced by observations. Other oceanic surface quantities do not reach this quality in combination with the current atmosphere model. A strong dependence of sea ice extent on details of the atmospheric radiation scheme is found. Our standard scheme leads to an overestimation of ice, most likely due to a negative bias of long-wave radiation. There is indication that a latent heat flux bias in fall contributes to the ice problem. Other atmosphere-ocean heat fluxes are generally realistic in the long term mean.

  • 23.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Qian, Minwei
    Redler, Ren
    Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model2010In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 34, no 7-8, p. 1157-1176Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.

  • 24. Doos, K
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    The Baltic haline conveyor belt or the overturning circulation and mixing in the Baltic2004In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, no 4-5, p. 261-266Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A study of the water-mass circulation of the Baltic has been undertaken by making use of a three dimensional Baltic Sea model simulation. The saline water from the North Atlantic is traced through the Danish Sounds into the Baltic where it upwells and mixes with the fresh water inflow from the rivers forming a Baltic haline conveyor belt. The mixing of the saline water from the Great Belt and Oresund with the fresh water is investigated making use of overturning stream functions and Lagrangian trajectories. The overturning stream function was calculated as a function of four different vertical coordinates (depth, salinity, temperature and density) in order to understand the path of the water and where it upwells and mixes. Evidence of a fictive depth overturning cell similar to the Deacon Cell in the Southern Ocean was found in the Baltic proper corresponding to the gyre circulation around Gotland, which vanishes when the overturning stream function is projected on density layers. A Lagrangian trajectory study was performed to obtain a better view of the circulation and mixing of the saline and fresh waters. The residence time of the water masses in the Baltic is calculated to be 26-29 years and the Lagrangian dispersion reaches basin saturation after 5 years.

  • 25. Dutheil, C.
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groeger, M.
    Boergel, F.
    Warming of Baltic Sea water masses since 18502023In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Warming of Baltic Sea water masses since 1850
  • 26. Dutheil, C.
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Groger, M.
    Borgel, F.
    Understanding past and future sea surface temperature trends in the Baltic Sea2021In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 27.
    Edman, Moa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Nutrient Retention in the Swedish Coastal Zone2018In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 5, article id UNSP 415Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 28.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 586-599Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

  • 29.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Impact of saltwater inflows on phosphorus cycling and eutrophication in the Baltic Sea: a 3D model study2014In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 66, article id 23985Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of dense saltwater inflows on the phosphorus dynamics in the Baltic Sea is studied from tracer experiments with a three-dimensional physical model. Model simulations showed that the coasts of the North West Gotland Basin and the Gulf of Finland, the Estonian coast in the East Gotland Basin are regions where tracers from below the halocline are primarily lifted up above the halocline. After 1 yr tracers are accumulated at the surface along the Swedish east coast and at the western and southern sides of Gotland. Elevated concentrations are also found east and southeast of Gotland, in the northern Bornholm Basin and in the central parts of the East Gotland Basin. The annual supplies of phosphorus from the deeper waters to the productive surface layers are estimated to be of the same order of magnitude as the waterborne inputs of phosphorus to the entire Baltic Sea. The model results suggest that regionally the impact of these nutrients may be quite large, and the largest regional increases in surface concentrations are found after large inflows. However, the overall direct impact of major Baltic inflows on the annual uplift of nutrients from below the halocline to the surface waters is small because vertical transports are comparably large also during periods without major inflows. Our model results suggest that phosphorus released from the sediments between 60 and 100 m depth in the East Gotland Basin contributes to the eutrophication, especially in the coastal regions of the eastern Baltic Proper.

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  • 30.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafson, B.G.
    Baltic Nest Institute, Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kuznetsov, I.
    Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Germany.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Savchuk, O.P.
    Baltic Nest Institute, Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden.
    Quality assessment of state-of-the-art coupled physical-biogeochemical models in hind cast simulations 1970-20052010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objectives of the project ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) are to calculate the combined effects of changing climate and changing human activity (e.g. changing nutrient loads) on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Three state-of-the-art coupled physical-biogeochemical models (BALTSEM, ERGOM, and RCO-SCOBI) are used to calculate changing concentrations of nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, diatoms, flagellates, cyanobacteria, zooplankton, detritus, and oxygen in the Baltic Sea. The models are structurally different in that ERGOM and RCO-SCOBI are 3D circulation models with uniform high horizontal resolution while BALTSEM resolves the Baltic Sea spatially in 13 sub-basins. This report summarises first results of the quality assessment and model intercomparison within ECOSUPPORT. Results from hindcast simulations are compared with observations for the period 1970-2005. We found that all three investigated models are able to reproduce the observed variability of biogeochemical cycles well. Uncertainties are primarily related to differences in the bioavailable fractions of nutrient loadings from land and parameterizations of key processes like sediment fluxes that are presently not well known. Avsikten med projektet ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) är att undersöka hur klimatförändringar tillsammans med mänsklig aktivitet (förändrad närsaltstillförsel) påverkar Östersjöns ekosystem. Tre kopplade fysiska-biogeokemiska modeller (BALTSEM, ERGOM, and RCO-SCOBI) används för att beräkna hur koncentrationer av nitrat, ammonium, fosfat, diatoméer, flagellater, cyanobakterier, djurplankton, detritus och löst syrgas i Östersjön förändras. Modellerna skiljer sig strukturellt åt genom att ERGOM och RCO-SCOBI är tredimensionella modeller med hög horisontell upplösning medan BALTSEM delar upp östersjön rumsligt i 13 delbassänger. Denna rapport sammanfattar resultaten från en första modelljämförelse och kvalitetsbedömning där modellresultat för tidsperioden 1970-2005 jämförs med observationer från samma period. Alla tre modellerna visar att de kan återskapa den observerade biogeokemiska variabiliteten väl. Osäkerheter är huvudsakligen relaterade till skillnader i andelen av näringstillförseln från land som antas vara biologiskt tillgänglig och till beskrivningarna av viktiga processer, som t.ex. flöden från sedimenten, där kunskapen för närvarande är bristfällig.

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  • 31.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafson, B.G
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Neumann, T.
    Savchuk, O. P.
    Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea2011In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 88, no 2, p. 267-284Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Three state-of-the-art coupled physical–biogeochemical models, the BAltic sea Long-Term large-Scale Eutrophication Model (BALTSEM), the Ecological Regional Ocean Model (ERGOM), and the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean circulation model (RCO–SCOBI), are used to calculate changing nutrient and oxygen dynamics in the Baltic Sea. The models are different in that ERGOM and RCO–SCOBI are three-dimensional (3D) circulation models while BALTSEM resolves the Baltic Sea into 13 dynamically interconnected and horizontally integrated sub-basins. The aim is to assess the simulated long-term dynamics and to discuss the response of the coupled physical–biogeochemical models to changing physical conditions and nutrient loadings during the period 1970–2005. We compared the long-term seasonal and annual statistics of inorganic nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen from hindcast simulations with those estimated from observations. We also studied the extension of hypoxic bottom areas covered by waters with O2 b2 ml O2 l −1 and cod reproductive volumes comprising waters with salinity N11 and O2 N2 ml O2 l −1 . The models reproduce much of the nutrient biogeochemical cycling in the Baltic proper. However, biases are larger in the Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay. No model shows outstanding performance in all aspects but instead the ensemble mean results are better than or as good as the results of any of the individual models. Uncertainties are primarily related to differences in the bioavailable fractions of nutrient loadings from land and parameterizations of key processes like sediment fluxes that are presently not well known. Also the uncertainty related to the initialization of the models in the early 1960s influence the modeled biogeochemical cycles during the investigated period. ©

  • 32.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hansen, J.
    National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Myrberg, K.
    Finnish Environment Institute, Finland Nordic.
    Ryabchenko, V.A.
    St. Petersburg Branch, P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia.
    Skogen, Morten
    Institute of Marine Research, Norway.
    Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea: A model study Years 2001-20052011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This joint status report for the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea area is carried out by SMHI Sweden, IMR Norway, NERI Denmark, SPBIO Russia, and SYKE Finland as a part of the project “A Baltic and NORth sea Model eutrophication Assessment in a future cLimate” (ABNORMAL), supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group (NMR-HLG). The previous NMR-HLG projects NO COMMENTS and BANSAI focused on the establishment and main-tenance of operational models and the use of these to develop methods for assessing the eutrophication status. Within ABNORMAL the issues are brought forward with a focus also on the use of ecological models for an assessment of marine eutrophication in a future climate. The main finding of this study is the proposed way of combining observations and results from an ensemble of ecological models to make an assessment of the eutrophication status in present climate for five different years (2001-2005). Threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) are used and possible improvements of the methods are briefly discussed. The assessment of eutrophication status according to the integration of the categorized assessment parameters indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas.

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  • 33.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hansen, J.L.S:
    Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Denmark.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Molchanov, M.S.
    St. Petersburg Branch, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia.
    Ryabchenko, V.A.
    St. Petersburg Branch, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia.
    Skogen, Morten
    Institute of Marine Research, Norway.
    Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea: A model study. Present and future climate2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    An ensemble of models has been used to assess eutrophication in the North Sea and Baltic Sea in the present and the future climate, using a method suggested in Almroth and Skogen (2010). In the control run, the assessment of eutrophication status according to the integration of the categorized assessment parameters indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas (Fig. 16).The temperature increase by itself will worsen the oxygen condition throughout the area and on top of this; elevated nutrient levels in the whole Baltic will amplify this effect due to elevated primary production. Therefore declining oxygen condition and increasing phytoplankton biomasses will be the main problem causing the areas to be classified as problem areas. In the Western Gotland Basin low oxygen seems to be the sole reason for this classification. In the North Sea, the classification as potential problem areas are due to high nitrate and N:P ratio. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. Also in the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in the projected future climate. Comparing the ECHAM5 driven changes to simulations using the HadCM3 forcing show that; all changes except the surface layer winterDIN in the future climate have the same sign and that; the overall eutrophication status assessment is robust and insensitive to the choice of future scenario.

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  • 34.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Martensson, S.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry2013In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, no 1, p. 149-154Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In a warming future climate, the sea ice cover is expected to decrease, with very likely large consequences for the marine ecosystem. We investigated the impact of future sea ice retreat on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the century, using an ensemble of regionalized global climate simulations. We found that the spring bloom will start by up to one month earlier and winds and wave-induced resuspension will increase, causing an increased transport of nutrients from the productive coastal zone into the deeper areas. The internal nutrient fluxes do not necessarily increase because they also depend on oxygen and temperature conditions of the bottom water. Winter mixing increases in areas having reduced ice cover and in areas having reduced stratification due to increased freshwater supply. The reduced sea ice cover therefore partly counteracts eutrophication because increased vertical mixing improves oxygen conditions in lower layers. Citation: Eilola, K., S. Martensson, and H. E. M. Meier (2013), Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 149-154, doi:10.1029/2012GL054375.

  • 35.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Transports and budgets of oxygen and phosphorus in the Baltic sea2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report we present budgets of oxygen and phosphorus for the deeper layers of the Baltic proper. The budgets give calculations of sedimentation, erosion and horizontal and vertical transports based on model simulations. The fluxes of oxygen and phosphorus as well as trends in contents have been computed.

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  • 36.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    On the dynamics of oxygen, phosphorus and cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea; A model study2009In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 75, no 1-2, p. 163-184Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Oxygen and phosphorus dynamics and cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea are discussed using results from the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). The high-resolution circulation model is used to simulate the time period from 1902 to 1998 using reconstructed physical forcing and climatological nutrient loads of the late 20th century. The analysis of the results covers the last 30 years of the simulation period. The results emphasize the importance of internal phosphorus and oxygen dynamics, the variability of physical conditions and the natural long-term variability of phosphorus supplies from land on the phosphorus content in the Baltic Sea. These mechanisms play an important role on the variability of available surface layer phosphorus in late winter in the Baltic Sea. The content of cyanobacteria increases with the availability of phosphorus in the surface layers of the Baltic proper and the probability for large cyanobacteria blooms in the model is rapidly increased at higher concentrations of excess dissolved inorganic phosphorus in late winter. The natural increase of phosphorus supplies from land due to increased river runoff since the early 1970s may to a large degree explain the increased phosphorus content in the Baltic proper. Another significant fraction of the increase is explained by the release of phosphorus from increased anoxic areas during the period. These results refer to the long-term variability of the phosphorus cycle. In accordance to earlier publications is the short-term (i.e. interannual) variability of the phosphorus content in the Baltic proper mainly explained by oxygen dependent sediment fluxes. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 37. Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Nycander, Jonas
    Morth, Carl-Magnus
    Humborg, Christoph
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Deutsch, Barbara
    Tracing terrestrial DOC in the Baltic SeaA 3-D model study2016In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 30, no 2, p. 134-148Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The fate of terrestrial organic matter brought to the coastal seas by rivers and its role in the global carbon cycle are still not very well known. Here the degradation rate of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOCter) is studied in the Baltic Sea, a subarctic semienclosed sea, by releasing it as a tracer in a 3-D circulation model and applying linear decay constants. A good agreement with available observational data is obtained by parameterizing the degradation in two rather different ways: one by applying a decay time on the order of 10years to the whole pool of DOCter and one by dividing the DOCter into onerefractory pool and one pool subject to a decay time on the order of 1year. The choice ofparameterization has asignificant effect on where in the Baltic Sea the removal takes place, which can be of importance whenmodeling the full carbon cycle and the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere. In both cases the biogeochemical decayoperates on time scales less than the water residence time. Therefore, only a minor fraction of the DOCter reaches the North Sea, whereas approximately 80% is removed by internal sinks within the Baltic Sea. This further implies that DOCter mineralization is an important link in land-sea-atmosphere cycling of carbon in coastal and shelf seas that are heavily influenced by riverine DOC.

  • 38. Giesse, Celine
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Moros, Matthias
    Revisiting the Role of Convective Deep Water Formation in Northern Baltic Sea Bottom Water Renewal2020In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 125, no 10, article id e2020JC016114Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 39.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Chen, Deliang
    Bøssing Christensen, Ole
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Krysanova, Valentina
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Radziejewski, Maciej
    Räisänen, Jouni
    Rockel, Burkhardt
    Ruosteenoja, Kimmo
    Projections of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change2008In: Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin / [ed] The BACC Author Team, Springer, Berlin , 2008, p. 133-219Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 40. Groeger, M.
    et al.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe?2020In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 41. Groeger, Matthias
    et al.
    Dieterich, Christian
    Dutheil, Cyril
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sein, Dmitry, V
    Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model2022In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 13, no 1, p. 613-631Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model
  • 42. Groeger, Matthias
    et al.
    Placke, Manja
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Boergel, Florian
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dutheil, Cyril
    Graewe, Ulf
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Radtke, Hagen
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Su, Jian
    Vali, Germo
    The Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Project (BMIP) - a platform for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty assessment2022In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 15, no 22, p. 8613-8638Article in journal (Refereed)
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    The Baltic Sea Model Intercomparison Projext
  • 43.
    Groger, Matthias
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Summer hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak projected in an ensemble of climate scenarios downscaled with a coupled regional ocean-sea ice-atmosphere model2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 9-10, p. 5945-5966Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 44. Groger, Matthias
    et al.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Haapala, Jari
    Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Jakacki, Jaromir
    May, Wilhelm
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Miller, Paul A.
    Rutgersson, Anna
    Wu, Lichuan
    Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region2021In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 12, no 3, p. 939-973Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region
  • 45. Groger, Matthias
    et al.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Thermal air-sea coupling in hindcast simulations for the North Sea and Baltic Sea on the NW European shelf2015In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, article id 26911Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article compares interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean hindcast simulations with stand-alone runs of the atmosphere and ocean models using the recently developed regional ocean-atmosphere model NEMO-Nordic for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. In the interactively coupled run, the ocean and the atmosphere components were allowed to exchange mass, momentum and heat every 3 h. Our results show that interactive coupling significantly improves simulated winter sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Baltic Sea. The ocean and atmosphere stand-alone runs, respectively, resulted in too low sea surface and air temperatures over the Baltic Sea. These two runs suffer from too cold prescribed ERA40 SSTs, which lower air temperatures and weaken winds in the atmosphere only run. In the ocean-only run, the weaker winds additionally lower the vertical mixing thereby lowering the upward transport of warmer subpycnocline waters. By contrast, in the interactively coupled run, the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange evolved freely and demonstrated good skills in reproducing observed surface temperatures. Despite the strong impact on oceanic and atmospheric variables in the coupling area, no far reaching influence on atmospheric variables over land can be identified. In perturbation experiments, the different dynamics of the two coupling techniques is investigated in more detail by implementing strong positive winter temperature anomalies in the ocean model. Here, interactive coupling results in a substantially higher preservation of heat anomalies because the atmosphere also warmed which damped the ocean to atmosphere heat transfer. In the passively coupled set-up, this atmospheric feedback is missing, which resulted in an unrealistically high oceanic heat loss. The main added value of interactive air-sea coupling is twofold: (1) the elimination of any boundary condition at the air-sea interface and (2) the more realistic dynamical response to perturbations in the ocean-atmosphere heat balance, which will be essential in climate warming scenarios.

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  • 46. Gustafsson, Bo G.
    et al.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-20062012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 534-548Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.

  • 47. Haapala, J
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Rinne, J
    Numerical investigations of future ice conditions in the Baltic Sea2001In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 30, no 4-5, p. 237-244Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Global climate change is expected to have an effect on the physical and ecological characteristics of the Baltic Sea. Estimates of future climate on the regional scale can be obtained by using either statistical or dynamical downscaling methods of global AOGCM scenario results. In this paper, we use 2 different coupled ice-ocean models of the Baltic Sea to simulate present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present. Two 10-year time slice experiments have been performed using the results of atmospheric climate model simulations as forcing, one representing pre-industrial climate conditions (control simulation), and the other global warming with a 150% increase in CO2 greenhouse gas concentration (scenario simulation). Present-day climatological ice conditions and interannual variability are realistically reproduced by the models. The simulated range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic in both models together is 180 to 420.10(3) km(2) in the control simulation and 45 to 270.10(3) km(2) in the scenario simulation. The range of the maximum annual ice thickness is from 32 to 96 cm and from 11 to 60 cm in the control and scenario simulations, respectively. In contrast to earlier estimates, sea ice is still formed every winter in the Northern Bothnian Bay and in the most Eastern parts of the Gulf of Finland. Overall, the simulated changes of quantities such as ice extent and ice thickness, as well as their interannual variations are relatively similar in both models, which is remarkable, because the 2 coupled ice-ocean model systems have been. developed independently. This increases the reliability of future projections of ice conditions in the Baltic Sea.

  • 48. Hense, Inga
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sonntag, Sebastian
    Projected climate change impact on Baltic Sea cyanobacteria Climate change impact on cyanobacteria2013In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 119, no 2, p. 391-406Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Compared to other phytoplankton groups, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria generally prefer high water temperatures for growth and are therefore expected to benefit from global warming. We use a coupled biological-physical model with an advanced cyanobacteria life cycle model to compare the abundance of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea during two different time periods (1969-1998; 2069-2098). For the latter, we find prolonged growth and a more than twofold increase in the climatologically (30 years) averaged cyanobacteria biomass and nitrogen fixation. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the biological-physical feedback mechanism through light absorption becomes more important with global warming. In general, we find a nonlinear response of cyanobacteria to changes in the atmospheric forcing fields as a result of life-cycle related feedback mechanisms. Overall, the sensitivity of the cyanobacteria-driven system suggests that biological-physical and life-cycle related feedback mechanisms are important and must therefore be included in future projection studies.

  • 49.
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Causes of simulated long-term changes in phytoplankton biomass in the Baltic proper: a wavelet analysis2018In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 15, no 16, p. 5113-5129Article in journal (Refereed)
    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 50.
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Olofsson, Malin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hense, Inga
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper2021In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 18, no 23, p. 6213-6227Article in journal (Refereed)
    Download full text (pdf)
    Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics andhistorical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper
1234 1 - 50 of 164
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