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  • 1.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Modelling nutrient retention in the coastal zone of an eutrophic sea2016Ingår i: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 13, nr 20, s. 5753-5769Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 2.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hall, Per O. J.
    Transport of fresh and resuspended particulate organic material in the Baltic Sea - a model study2011Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 87, nr 1, s. 1-12Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A fully coupled high-resolution 3-dimensional biogeochemical-physical ocean model including an empirical wave model was used to investigate the long-term average (1970-2007) distributions and transports of resuspended matter and other types of suspended organic matter in the Baltic Sea. Modelled bottom types were compared to observations and the results showed that the model successfully managed to capture the horizontal, as well as the vertical, distribution of the different bottom types: accumulation, transport and erosion bottoms. The model also captured well the nutrient element contents in the sediments. On average the largest contribution of resuspended organic carbon to the transport of total organic carbon is found at erosion and transport bottoms. Although the relative transport of resuspended organic carbon at deeper accumulation bottoms in general is low (< 10% of total), the central parts of the sub-basins act on average as sinks that import organic matter while the more shallow areas and the coastal regions acts as sources of organic carbon in the water column. This indicates that the particulate organic matter produced in erosion and transport areas might be kept in suspension long enough to be transported and settle in less energetic areas, i.e. on accumulation bottoms. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 3.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Hall, Per O. J.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea2015Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 144, s. 127-141Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980-2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59 x 10(3) t P year(-1) and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60-150 m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43 x 10(3) t P year(-1). For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19 x 10(3) t P year(-1). In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7 x 10(3) t P year(-1). The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

  • 4. Andersson, Agneta
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Ripszam, Matyas
    Rowe, Owen
    Wikner, Johan
    Haglund, Peter
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Legrand, Catherine
    Figueroa, Daniela
    Paczkowska, Joanna
    Lindehoff, Elin
    Tysklind, Mats
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management2015Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, s. S345-S356Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 degrees C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase similar to 30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  • 5.
    Edman, Moa
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Nutrient Retention in the Swedish Coastal Zone2018Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 5, artikel-id UNSP 415Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 6.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    On the dynamics of organic nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus, in the Baltic Sea2009Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report we study the dynamics of organic nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus, in the Baltic Sea. The results indicate that much of the characteristics of the surface layer dynamics of organic nutrients can be described by the Redfield ratio especially in the Baltic proper. There is however deviations from the Redfield ratio that are discussed and needs to be further investigated. The seasonal variations at all investigated stations indicate that the increase and decrease of the organic phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations in spring and autumn takes place with stoichiometric values different from the Redfield ratio. It is also found that organic phosphorus concentrations start to decrease earlier in summer than organic nitrogen that may continue to increase during summer and early autumn. There is a clear trend with decreasing DIN:DIP ratios in late winter at the Gotland Deep during the period 1995-2008 while there is an improved correlation of the Redfield model during the later part of the period when we have extremely low DIN:DIP ratios. Also the results from the Bothnian bay show that the variability of organic matter is fairly well described by the Redfield model despite the extremely high late winter N:P ratios observed in this region. Hence, the seasonal variability of organic matter seems to be rather independent of the ratio of inorganic nutrients. The variability of the inorganic N to P ratios in late winter and early spring across the Baltic Sea is much larger than seen from the variability of the organic matter. This suggests that other sources than DIN and DIP as sources for new nutrients in spring are used. This is true both in the Baltic proper, where an additional nitrogen source for organic matter production in spring is needed besides inorganic nitrogen, and in the Bothnian Bay, where an additional phosphorus source is needed. Nitrogen fixation by cyanobacteria that grow later in the summer in the southern Baltic Sea can not explain the additional nitrogen source needed in early spring. Future model experiments may reveal more information about the dynamics of organic matter in the Baltic Sea.

  • 7.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersen, Per
    Nautsvoll, Lars Johan
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Modelling the dynamics of harmful blooms of Chattonella sp. in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat2011Ingår i: ICES CM 2006/E:12, 2011Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The presentation shows observations, satellite images and model results describing the growth and spreading of Chattonella sp. flagellates in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat. Chattonella sp. is a harmful alga that may cause fish kills due to damage of the gills. Calm weather, stable water column stratification, and low turbulence may facilitate the onset of a Chattonella bloom. Results from the three-dimensional hydrodynamical model HIROMB (High Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic Sea) are used as forcing of a transport model that computes vertical and horizontal transports of chemical and biological compounds. A modified version of the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is used to describe the temporal evolution of the phytoplankton spring blooms in the year 2001 when Chattonella was abundant and 2002 when only small amounts of Chattonella were observed. A comparison with satellite images and cell counts indicates that the model captures the main transport patterns of phytoplankton in the surface layers of the offshore areas. The Chattonella bloom of the model starts in the quite shallow parts of the western Kattegat and in the stratified coastal areas of the northern Skagerrak. The coastal waters near the river Göta Älv of Sweden also indicate a tendency of an increased occurrence of Chattonella. Chattonella is observed in the model during both years but the occurrence of Chattonella is more significant in the year 2001 than in 2002.

  • 8.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Fransner, Filippa
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate2012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 586-599Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

  • 9.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eremina, Tatjana 
    Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Sankt-Petersburg, Russia.
    Larsen, Janus
    Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
    Janas, Urszula 
    Institute of Oceanography, Gdansk University, Poland.
    Timmermann, Karen 
    Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
    Tedesco, Letizia 
    Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    Voloshchuk, Ekaterina 
    Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Sankt-Petersburg, Russia.
    Model set-up at COCOA study sites2015Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    COCOA will investigate physical, biogeochemical and biological processes in a combined and coordinated fashion to improve the understanding of the interaction of these processes on the removal of nutrients along the land-sea interface. The results from the project will be used to estimate nutrient retention capacity in the coastal zone of the entire Baltic Sea coast. An ensemble of biogeochemical models will be used in combination with field studies at seven different coastal study sites around the Baltic Sea. The present report is a deliverable of COCOA work package 5 (WP5). Within the objective of WP5 process understanding and process descriptions will be improved in state-of-the-art biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea coastal zone. This report presents brief information about the models available for the COCOA project and defines the needed input to the models that will be set-up at several learning sites. The aim is to perform ensemble modelling at several sites, using at least two different models at each site. A pilot study to estimate nutrient retention capacity in the Stockholm Archipelago with the existing Swedish model system is ongoing and first results are presented and the concept of nutrient retention is briefly discussed. The existing models for different learning sites presented in the report are; 1) The Swedish model system SCM (Öre river estuary and the Stockholm archipelago) - A multi-box-model approach 2) The Danish model system FLEXSEM (Roskilde fjord) - A combined box-model and 3-D model approach 3) The Finnish model system ESIM-BFMSI (Tvärminne Archipelago) - A 1D box-model approach 4) The Polish model system M3D UG/ProDeMo (Puck Bay) - A 3-D model approach. Operational model. 5) The Lithuanian model system SYFEM/AQUABC (Curonian Lagoon) - A combined box-model and 3-D model approach 6) The Swedish open Baltic model system RCO-SCOBI (for the open Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Gdansk/Vistula). - A 3-D model approach In addition a biogeochemical model (Boudreau, 1996) for the Gulf of Finland (Russian State Hydrometeorological University model) is used to study the quantitative effect of Marenzelleria on the Gulf of Finland ecosystem. Process studies at selected sites will be performed with a reactive transport model developed at Utrecht University. Focus will be on the role of iron and phosphorus cycling. Process studies with the Danish model system will support the development of new parameterizations of nutrient fluxes taking benthic habitat into account. The new parameterizations of the nutrient fluxes will in addition also be implemented into SCM and the models will be used to estimate nutrient fluxes, retention times and the filter capacity of the coastal zones. The In Kind contributions from previously (in the literature) well described open Baltic Sea models RCO-SCOBI, BALTSEM, ERGOM and SPBEM that will be used for the description of open sea conditions are also briefly mentioned in the report with references to the relevant literature. 6) The Swedish open Baltic model system RCO-SCOBI (for the open Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Gdansk/Vistula). - A 3-D model approach In addition a biogeochemical model (Boudreau, 1996) for the Gulf of Finland (Russian State Hydrometeorological University model) is used to study the quantitative effect of Marenzelleria on the Gulf of Finland ecosystem. Process studies at selected sites will be performed with a reactive transport model developed at Utrecht University. Focus will be on the role of iron and phosphorus cycling. Process studies with the Danish model system will support the development of new parameterizations of nutrient fluxes taking benthic habitat into account. The new parameterizations of the nutrient fluxes will in addition also be implemented into SCM and the models will be used to estimate nutrient fluxes, retention times and the filter capacity of the coastal zones. The In Kind contributions from previously (in the literature) well described open Baltic Sea models RCO-SCOBI, BALTSEM, ERGOM and SPBEM that will be used for the description of open sea conditions are also briefly mentioned in the report with references to the relevant literature.

  • 10.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of saltwater inflows on phosphorus cycling and eutrophication in the Baltic Sea: a 3D model study2014Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 66, artikel-id 23985Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of dense saltwater inflows on the phosphorus dynamics in the Baltic Sea is studied from tracer experiments with a three-dimensional physical model. Model simulations showed that the coasts of the North West Gotland Basin and the Gulf of Finland, the Estonian coast in the East Gotland Basin are regions where tracers from below the halocline are primarily lifted up above the halocline. After 1 yr tracers are accumulated at the surface along the Swedish east coast and at the western and southern sides of Gotland. Elevated concentrations are also found east and southeast of Gotland, in the northern Bornholm Basin and in the central parts of the East Gotland Basin. The annual supplies of phosphorus from the deeper waters to the productive surface layers are estimated to be of the same order of magnitude as the waterborne inputs of phosphorus to the entire Baltic Sea. The model results suggest that regionally the impact of these nutrients may be quite large, and the largest regional increases in surface concentrations are found after large inflows. However, the overall direct impact of major Baltic inflows on the annual uplift of nutrients from below the halocline to the surface waters is small because vertical transports are comparably large also during periods without major inflows. Our model results suggest that phosphorus released from the sediments between 60 and 100 m depth in the East Gotland Basin contributes to the eutrophication, especially in the coastal regions of the eastern Baltic Proper.

  • 11.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafson, B.G.
    Baltic Nest Institute, Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, I.
    Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Germany.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Savchuk, O.P.
    Baltic Nest Institute, Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden.
    Quality assessment of state-of-the-art coupled physical-biogeochemical models in hind cast simulations 1970-20052010Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The objectives of the project ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) are to calculate the combined effects of changing climate and changing human activity (e.g. changing nutrient loads) on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Three state-of-the-art coupled physical-biogeochemical models (BALTSEM, ERGOM, and RCO-SCOBI) are used to calculate changing concentrations of nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, diatoms, flagellates, cyanobacteria, zooplankton, detritus, and oxygen in the Baltic Sea. The models are structurally different in that ERGOM and RCO-SCOBI are 3D circulation models with uniform high horizontal resolution while BALTSEM resolves the Baltic Sea spatially in 13 sub-basins. This report summarises first results of the quality assessment and model intercomparison within ECOSUPPORT. Results from hindcast simulations are compared with observations for the period 1970-2005. We found that all three investigated models are able to reproduce the observed variability of biogeochemical cycles well. Uncertainties are primarily related to differences in the bioavailable fractions of nutrient loadings from land and parameterizations of key processes like sediment fluxes that are presently not well known. Avsikten med projektet ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) är att undersöka hur klimatförändringar tillsammans med mänsklig aktivitet (förändrad närsaltstillförsel) påverkar Östersjöns ekosystem. Tre kopplade fysiska-biogeokemiska modeller (BALTSEM, ERGOM, and RCO-SCOBI) används för att beräkna hur koncentrationer av nitrat, ammonium, fosfat, diatoméer, flagellater, cyanobakterier, djurplankton, detritus och löst syrgas i Östersjön förändras. Modellerna skiljer sig strukturellt åt genom att ERGOM och RCO-SCOBI är tredimensionella modeller med hög horisontell upplösning medan BALTSEM delar upp östersjön rumsligt i 13 delbassänger. Denna rapport sammanfattar resultaten från en första modelljämförelse och kvalitetsbedömning där modellresultat för tidsperioden 1970-2005 jämförs med observationer från samma period. Alla tre modellerna visar att de kan återskapa den observerade biogeokemiska variabiliteten väl. Osäkerheter är huvudsakligen relaterade till skillnader i andelen av näringstillförseln från land som antas vara biologiskt tillgänglig och till beskrivningarna av viktiga processer, som t.ex. flöden från sedimenten, där kunskapen för närvarande är bristfällig.

  • 12.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafson, B.G
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Neumann, T.
    Savchuk, O. P.
    Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea2011Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 88, nr 2, s. 267-284Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Three state-of-the-art coupled physical–biogeochemical models, the BAltic sea Long-Term large-Scale Eutrophication Model (BALTSEM), the Ecological Regional Ocean Model (ERGOM), and the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean circulation model (RCO–SCOBI), are used to calculate changing nutrient and oxygen dynamics in the Baltic Sea. The models are different in that ERGOM and RCO–SCOBI are three-dimensional (3D) circulation models while BALTSEM resolves the Baltic Sea into 13 dynamically interconnected and horizontally integrated sub-basins. The aim is to assess the simulated long-term dynamics and to discuss the response of the coupled physical–biogeochemical models to changing physical conditions and nutrient loadings during the period 1970–2005. We compared the long-term seasonal and annual statistics of inorganic nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen from hindcast simulations with those estimated from observations. We also studied the extension of hypoxic bottom areas covered by waters with O2 b2 ml O2 l −1 and cod reproductive volumes comprising waters with salinity N11 and O2 N2 ml O2 l −1 . The models reproduce much of the nutrient biogeochemical cycling in the Baltic proper. However, biases are larger in the Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay. No model shows outstanding performance in all aspects but instead the ensemble mean results are better than or as good as the results of any of the individual models. Uncertainties are primarily related to differences in the bioavailable fractions of nutrient loadings from land and parameterizations of key processes like sediment fluxes that are presently not well known. Also the uncertainty related to the initialization of the models in the early 1960s influence the modeled biogeochemical cycles during the investigated period. ©

  • 13.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hansen, J.
    National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Myrberg, K.
    Finnish Environment Institute, Finland Nordic.
    Ryabchenko, V.A.
    St. Petersburg Branch, P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia.
    Skogen, Morten
    Institute of Marine Research, Norway.
    Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea: A model study Years 2001-20052011Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Följande statusrapport för Nordsjön, Skagerrak, Kattegatt och Östersjön har genomförts av SMHI Sverige, IMR Norge, NERI Danmark, SPBIO Ryssland, och SYKE Finland som del av projektet “A Baltic and NORth sea Model eutrophication Assessment in a future cLimate” (ABNORMAL), vilket finansierats av the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group (NMR-HLG). De tidigare NMR-HLG projekten NO COMMENTS och BANSAI fokuserades på etablering och underhållsstöd till operationella modeller samt utvecklingen av metoder för deras användning till utvärdering av eutrofieringstillstånd. Inom ABNORMAL har frågorna vidare fokuserats på användningen av ekologiska modeller för att utvärdera eutrofieringstillståndet in framtida klimat. Viktigaste rönet från studien är det föreslagna sättet att sammanföra observationer med resultat från en ensemble av ekologiska modeller för att utvärdera eutrofieringstillståndet i dagens klimat under fem olika år (2001-2005). Tröskelvärden och metoder från Oslo and Paris Commissionen (OSPAR) och Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) används och möjliga förbättringar av metoder diskuteras kort. Bedömningen av eutrofieringstillståndet visar att Kattegatt, de danska sunden, Finska viken, Gotlandsbassängen, samt största delarna av Arkonabassängen, Bornholmsbassängen och Egentliga Östersjön kan klassificeras som problemområden. Huvuddelen av Nordsjön och Skagerrak är icke-problem områden medan huvuddelarna av Bottenhavet, Bottenviken, Riga Bukten och hela sydöstra kontinentalkusten av Nordsjön kan klassificeras som potentiella problemområden.

  • 14.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hansen, J.L.S:
    Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Denmark.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Molchanov, M.S.
    St. Petersburg Branch, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia.
    Ryabchenko, V.A.
    St. Petersburg Branch, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia.
    Skogen, Morten
    Institute of Marine Research, Norway.
    Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea: A model study. Present and future climate2013Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    An ensemble of models has been used to assess eutrophication in the North Sea and Baltic Sea in the present and the future climate, using a method suggested in Almroth and Skogen (2010). In the control run, the assessment of eutrophication status according to the integration of the categorized assessment parameters indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas (Fig. 16).The temperature increase by itself will worsen the oxygen condition throughout the area and on top of this; elevated nutrient levels in the whole Baltic will amplify this effect due to elevated primary production. Therefore declining oxygen condition and increasing phytoplankton biomasses will be the main problem causing the areas to be classified as problem areas. In the Western Gotland Basin low oxygen seems to be the sole reason for this classification. In the North Sea, the classification as potential problem areas are due to high nitrate and N:P ratio. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. Also in the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in the projected future climate. Comparing the ECHAM5 driven changes to simulations using the HadCM3 forcing show that; all changes except the surface layer winterDIN in the future climate have the same sign and that; the overall eutrophication status assessment is robust and insensitive to the choice of future scenario.

  • 15.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Lindqvist, Stina
    Department of Chemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Bartoli, Marco
    Klaipeda University, Lithuania.
    Burska, Dorota
    Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdansk, Poland.
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Aarhus University, Denmark.
    Hellemann, Dana
    Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
    Hietanen, Susanna
    Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
    Hulth, Stefan
    Department of Chemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Janas, Urszula
    Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdansk, Poland.
    Kendzierska, Halina
    Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdansk, Poland.
    Pryputniewicz-Flis, Dorota
    Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdansk, Poland.
    Voss, Maren
    Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany.
    Zilius, Mindaugas
    Klaipeda University, Lithuania.
    Linking process rates with modellingdata and ecosystem characteristics2017Rapport (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is related to the BONUS project “Nutrient Cocktails in COAstal zones of the Baltic Sea” alias COCOA. The aim of BONUS COCOA is to investigate physical, biogeochemical and biological processes in a combined and coordinated fashion to improve the understanding of the interaction of these processes on the removal of nutrients along the land-sea interface. The report is especially related to BONUS COCOA WP 6 in which the main objective is extrapolation of results from the BONUS COCOA learning sites to coastal sites around the Baltic Sea in general. Specific objectives of this deliverable (D6.4) were to connect observed process rates with modelling data and ecosystem characteristics.

    In the report we made statistical analyses of observations from BONUS COCOA study sites together with results from the Swedish Coastal zone Model (SCM). Eight structural variables (water depth, temperature, salinity, bottom water concentrations of oxygen, ammonium, nitrate and phosphate, as well as nitrogen content in sediment) were found common to both the experimentally determined and the model data sets. The observed process rate evaluated in this report was denitrification. In addition regressions were tested between observed denitrification rates and several structural variables (latitude, longitude, depth, light, temperature, salinity, grain class, porosity, loss of ignition, sediment organic carbon, total nitrogen content in the sediment,  sediment carbon/nitrogen-ratio, sediment chlorphyll-a as well as bottom water concentrations of oxygen, ammonium, nitrate, and dissolved inorganic  phosphorus and silicate) for pooled data from all learning sites.

    The statistical results showed that experimentally determined multivariate data set from the shallow, illuminated stations was mainly found to be similar to the multivariate data set produced by the SCM model. Generally, no strong correlations of simple relations between observed denitrification and available structural variables were found for data collected from all the learning sites. We found some non-significant correlation between denitrification rates and bottom water dissolved inorganic phosphorous and dissolved silica but the reason behind the correlations is not clear.

    We also developed and evaluated a theory to relate process rates to monitoring data and nutrient retention. The theoretical analysis included nutrient retention due to denitrification as well as burial of phosphorus and nitrogen. The theory of nutrient retention showed good correlations with model results. It was found that area-specific nitrogen and phosphorus retention capacity in a sub-basin depend much on mean water depth, water residence time, basin area and the mean nutrient concentrations in the active sediment layer and in the water column.

  • 16.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Martensson, S.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry2013Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, nr 1, s. 149-154Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In a warming future climate, the sea ice cover is expected to decrease, with very likely large consequences for the marine ecosystem. We investigated the impact of future sea ice retreat on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the century, using an ensemble of regionalized global climate simulations. We found that the spring bloom will start by up to one month earlier and winds and wave-induced resuspension will increase, causing an increased transport of nutrients from the productive coastal zone into the deeper areas. The internal nutrient fluxes do not necessarily increase because they also depend on oxygen and temperature conditions of the bottom water. Winter mixing increases in areas having reduced ice cover and in areas having reduced stratification due to increased freshwater supply. The reduced sea ice cover therefore partly counteracts eutrophication because increased vertical mixing improves oxygen conditions in lower layers. Citation: Eilola, K., S. Martensson, and H. E. M. Meier (2013), Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 149-154, doi:10.1029/2012GL054375.

  • 17.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Transports and budgets of oxygen and phosphorus in the Baltic sea2008Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report we present budgets of oxygen and phosphorus for the deeper layers of the Baltic proper. The budgets give calculations of sedimentation, erosion and horizontal and vertical transports based on model simulations. The fluxes of oxygen and phosphorus as well as trends in contents have been computed.

  • 18.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    On the dynamics of oxygen, phosphorus and cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea; A model study2009Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 75, nr 1-2, s. 163-184Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Oxygen and phosphorus dynamics and cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea are discussed using results from the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). The high-resolution circulation model is used to simulate the time period from 1902 to 1998 using reconstructed physical forcing and climatological nutrient loads of the late 20th century. The analysis of the results covers the last 30 years of the simulation period. The results emphasize the importance of internal phosphorus and oxygen dynamics, the variability of physical conditions and the natural long-term variability of phosphorus supplies from land on the phosphorus content in the Baltic Sea. These mechanisms play an important role on the variability of available surface layer phosphorus in late winter in the Baltic Sea. The content of cyanobacteria increases with the availability of phosphorus in the surface layers of the Baltic proper and the probability for large cyanobacteria blooms in the model is rapidly increased at higher concentrations of excess dissolved inorganic phosphorus in late winter. The natural increase of phosphorus supplies from land due to increased river runoff since the early 1970s may to a large degree explain the increased phosphorus content in the Baltic proper. Another significant fraction of the increase is explained by the release of phosphorus from increased anoxic areas during the period. These results refer to the long-term variability of the phosphorus cycle. In accordance to earlier publications is the short-term (i.e. interannual) variability of the phosphorus content in the Baltic proper mainly explained by oxygen dependent sediment fluxes. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 19.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Model assessment of the predicted environmental consequences for OSPAR problem areas following nutrient reductions2009Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is used for the assessment of eutrophication status in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat, and of the following long-term effects on the ecosystem for the 50% nutrient reduction target (PARCOM Recommendation 88/2). Model validation and the final reporting of the results in accordance with the OSPAR comprehensive procedure are presented.The model is validated by a comparison of a long time series (1985-2002) of the model results to data from a number of stations representing different parts of the model domain. A quantitative examination of the model performance is done by a comparison between the seasonal and annual averages of the model results and in-situ data. The model response to nutrient reductions shows that reducing nutrient inputs from land have the largest effects on the nitrate concentrations in the Kattegat and along the Swedish coast in the Skagerrak. The effects on phosphate concentrations are relatively small. The largest effect obtained from a 50% reduction of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus from the runoff in one country alone is obtained for Sweden. This model experiment reduces the nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations in the Swedish coastal waters by 5%-10% and 3%-6%, respectively. The annual net production is reduced by 2%-4% and changes in sedimentation are less than 1%. The largest reduction is found in the Kattegat.The combined effect from a 50% reduction of anthropogenic nutrient supplies from land and an anticipated realistic reduction of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea reduces the nitrate and phosphate concentrations in the Kattegat and the Swedish parts of the Skagerrak coastal area by 20%-30%. The average chlorophyll concentrations are reduced by 8%-11%. The annual net production and the sedimentation are reduced by 12%-20% and 5%-12%, respectively.

  • 20. Fransner, Filippa
    et al.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Tedesco, Letizia
    Vichi, Marcello
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Roquet, Fabien
    Spilling, Kristian
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Morth, Carl-Magnus
    Humborg, Christoph
    Nycander, Jonas
    Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO(2) Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia2018Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 123, nr 1, s. 166-188Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 21. Gustafsson, Bo G.
    et al.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-20062012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 534-548Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.

  • 22.
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Causes of simulated long-term changes in phytoplankton biomass in the Baltic proper: a wavelet analysis2018Ingår i: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 15, nr 16, s. 5113-5129Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 23.
    Håkansson, Bertil
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Lindahl, Odd
    Kristineberg Marine Research Station.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    SMHI.
    Axe, Philip
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Swedish National Report on Eutrophication Status in the Kattegat and the Skagerrak: OSPAR ASSESSMENT 20072007Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The surface area of the Kattegat and the Skagerrak, located in the eastern North Sea, is about 22 000 km2 and 32 000 km2, and the mean depth is about 23 m and 210 m, respectively. The Skagerrak and the Kattegat forms the inner end of the Norwegian trench, which has the characteristics of a deep (700 m) fjord connecting the Baltic Sea with theNorwegian Sea (e.g. Rodhe, 1987). The sill depth of the fjord is about 270 m. The Kattegat offshore and inshore waters were identified as problem areas, whereas the Inshore Skagerrak waters the OSPAR categories I - IV indicate a slight incoherence in the assessment, although with an overalljudgement to be identifi ed as a problem area. The offshore Skagerrak was identified as a non problem area, according to the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. (OSPAR Commission, 2005).

  • 24.
    Karlson, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Johansson, Johannes
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Linders, Johanna
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Mohlin, Malin
    SMHI.
    Willstrand Wranne, Anna
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Distribution of cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea2017Ingår i: Marine and Fresh-Water Harmful Algae. / [ed] Proenca, L. A. O. and Hallegraeff, G., International Society for the Study of Harmful Algae Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO , 2017, s. 100-103Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
  • 25.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Axell, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Model study on the variability of ecosystem parameters in the Skagerrak-Kattegat area, effect of load reduction in the North Sea and possible effect of BSAP on Skagerrak-Kattegat area2016Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den nyligen utvecklade ekosystemmodellen NEMO-Nordic-SCOBI användes för att studera variabiliteten av några indikatorer för ekosystemet i Skagerrak- kattegatt området. Även två känslighetsstudier gjordes för att undersöka möjliga effekter av Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) och en reduktion scenario av närsaltstillförsel på Skagerrak-Kattegatt området. Den utförda studien kan användas som underlag och stöd vid tolkningen av observationsdata inför utvärderingen ”Intermediate Assessments Eutrophication status assessment”. Jämförelsen mellan modelldata och observationer indikerar att modellens resultat är acceptabla. Modellerade ytvärden av salthalt, temperatur och löst fosfat (DIP) visar god överenskommelse med observerade värden. Samtidigt har modellresultaten avvikelser i vissa delområden vad gäller löst oorganiskt kväve (DIN) och löst kisel under vitertid. Dock visar modellen i sitt nuvarande tillstånd tillräckligt goda resultat för den aktuella studien. Resultaten från de två känslighetsstudierna visar en minskning av näringskoncentrationer i ytan under vintern i båda havsområdena. I Skagerrak är minskningen orsakad av reducerad närsaltstillförsel i Nordsjön. I Kattegatt minskar lösta fosfatet på grund av genomförandet av BSAP. Ingen av scenarierna visade någon signifikant påverkan på syre vid havsbotten eller på ytkoncentratiner av Chl-a.

  • 26.
    Liu, Ye
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Improving the multiannual, high-resolution modelling of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea by using data assimilation2014Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 66, artikel-id 24908Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The impact of assimilating temperature, salinity, oxygen, phosphate and nitrate observations on marine ecosystem modelling is assessed. For this purpose, two 10-yr (1970-1979) reanalyses of the Baltic Sea are carried out using the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) method and a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea. To evaluate the reanalyses, climatological data and available biogeochemical and physical in situ observations at monitoring stations are compared with results from simulations with and without data assimilation. In the first reanalysis, only observed temperature and salinity profiles are assimilated, whereas biogeochemical observations are unused. Although simulated temperature and salinity improve considerably as expected, the quality of simulated biogeochemical variables does not improve and deep water nitrate concentrations even worsen. This unexpected behaviour is explained by a lowering of the halocline in the Baltic proper due to the assimilation causing increased oxygen concentrations in the deep water and consequently altered nutrient fluxes. In the second reanalysis, both physical and biogeochemical observations are assimilated and good quality in all variables is found. Hence, we conclude that if a data assimilation method like the EnOI is applied, all available observations should be used to perform reanalyses of high quality for the Baltic Sea biogeochemical state estimates.

  • 27.
    Liu, Ye
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Nutrient transports in the Baltic Sea - results from a 30-year physical-biogeochemical reanalysis2017Ingår i: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 14, nr 8, s. 2113-2131Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 28.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, H. C.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, B. G.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Muller-Karulis, B.
    Neumann, T.
    Savchuk, O. P.
    Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea2011Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 38, artikel-id L24608Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Using an ensemble of coupled physical-biogeochemical models driven with regionalized data from global climate simulations we are able to quantify the influence of changing climate upon oxygen conditions in one of the numerous coastal seas (the Baltic Sea) that suffers worldwide from eutrophication and from expanding hypoxic zones. Applying various nutrient load scenarios we show that under the impact of warming climate hypoxic and anoxic areas will very likely increase or at best only slightly decrease (in case of optimistic nutrient load reductions) compared to present conditions, regardless of the used global model and climate scenario. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by (1) enlarged nutrient loads due to increased runoff, (2) reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the ocean due to increased temperature, and (3) intensified internal nutrient cycling. In future climate a similar expansion of hypoxia as projected for the Baltic Sea can be expected also for other coastal oceans worldwide. Citation: Meier, H. E. M., H. C. Andersson, K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafsson, I. Kuznetsov, B. Muller-Karulis, T. Neumann, and O. P. Savchuk (2011), Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L24608, doi:10.1029/2011GL049929.

  • 29.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Chubarenko, Boris
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Hansson, Anders
    Havenhand, Jonathan
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Niiranen, Susa
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Raudsepp, Urmas
    Reckermann, Marcus
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Vali, Germo
    Weslawski, Jan-Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations2012Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, nr 3, artikel-id 034005Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

  • 30.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Kotwicki, Lech
    Neset, Tina-Simone
    Niiranen, Susa
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Weslawski, Jan Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management2014Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, nr 1, s. 37-48Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

  • 31.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, B.
    Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Transient scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea Region during the 21st century2011Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vattnet i Östersjön är optiskt sett uppdelat i många beståndsdelar och har ytterst höga halter av färgade lösta organiska ämnen (colored dissolved organic matter, CDOM), även kallade för gulämnen, gilvin eller gelbstoff. CDOM är en komplex blandning av kemiska bindningar skapade vid nedbrytningen av fotosyntetiskt producerat organiskt material och det har en avsevärd påverkan på ljusfältet i vattnet. En kvantitativ beskrivning av dynamiken och variabiliteten behövs ofta för att få en riktig beskrivning av ljusets nedträngning och därefter av tex primärproduktionen.     
    Denna studie är ett första försök att inkludera CDOM i en modell för Östersjön. Modellförsöken baseras på en fix koncentration i de 30 största floderna. I brist på omfattande mätningar antas en flodtillförsel som är proportionell mot totalt organiskt kol. Eftersom ursprunget och ödet fortfarande är föremål för diskussioner testar vi olika hastigheter av CDOM sönderfall och jämför resultaten med satellitobservationer. Jämfört med temperatur eller tidsberoende sönderfall uppnåddes bäst resultat med ett ljusberoende sönderfall. Att behandla CDOM som ett konservativt spårämne leder inte till tillfredsställande resultat.

  • 32.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Radtke, Hagen
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea2019Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, nr 11, s. 1362-1376Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 33.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Mueller-Karulis, Baerbel
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations2018Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 5, artikel-id UNSP 440Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 34.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Placke, Manja
    Neumann, Thomas
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Friedland, Rene
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Gustafsson, Erik
    Isaev, Alexey
    Kniebusch, Madline
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Naumann, Michael
    Omstedt, Anders
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir
    Saraiva, Sofia
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea2019Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 6, artikel-id UNSP 46Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 35.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Future projections of ecological patterns in the Baltic Sea2011Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Påverkan av klimatförändringar på Östersjöns biogeokemiska kretslopp i slutet av tjugohundratalet har studerats med en högupplöst 3-D kopplad biogeokemisk-fysisk havsmodell. Fyra regionaliserade klimat scenarier baserade på resultat från två globala klimatmodeller (General Circulation Models) och två utsläpps scenarier för växthusgaser (A2, B2) har under-sökts. Studien fokuseras på kartor som beskriver förändringar i års- och säsongsmedelvärden av indikatorer för ekologisk kvalitet. Vi fann att klimatförändringar kan ha en betydande påverkan på den horisontella fördelningen av ekologiska parametrar. Som till exempel i klimatscenariot med de kraftigaste förändringarna kan siktdjupet (secchi djup) minska med upp till två meter i vissa områden medan en reducerad skiktning kan medföra att siktdjupet ökar i andra områden.

  • 36.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, E.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kniebusch, M.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Väli, Germo
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Saraiva, S.
    Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850 (vol 53, pg 1145, 2019)2019Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, nr 1-2, s. 1167-1169Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 37.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Climate-related changes in marine ecosystems simulated with a three-dimensional coupled physical -biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea2011Ingår i: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 48, s. 31-55Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 38.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kniebusch, M.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Pemberton, Per
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Liu, Ye
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Väli, Germo
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Saraiva, S.
    Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 18502019Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, nr 1-2, s. 1145-1166Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 39.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustavsson, B.G.
    Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Kuznetsov, I.
    Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Germany.
    Neumann, T.
    Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany.
    Savchuk, O.P.
    Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University,Stockholm, Sweden.
    Uncertainty assessment of projected ecological quality indicators in future climate2012Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Osakerheter i framtidsprojektioner av fysikaliska nyckelparametrar, som vattentemperatur och salthalt, och indikatorer for ekologisk kvalitet i  Ostersjon, som syrehalt, naringsamnen och vattnets genomskinlighet utvarderades. Vi analyserade en ensemble av 38 scenario simuleringar for perioden 1961-2099. Tre aktuella kopplade fysikaliskabiogeokemiska modeller drevs av fyra regionaliserade projektioner av framtida klimat, baserade p a scenario A1B eller A2 for globala utslapp av vaxthusgaser, samt fyra scenarier for tillforsel av naringsamnen till  Ostersjon som tacker en skala fr an en pessimistisk till en optimistisk socioekonomisk utveckling i  Ostersjoregionen. Vi fann betydande skillnader i framtids scenarier for indikatorerna av ekologisk kvalitet p a grund av modellernas olika kanslighet for andringar i temperaturer och narsaltstillforsel. Men trots dessa osakerheter stammer de overgripande resultaten kvalitativt overrens mellan modellerna. Speciellt motverkas e ekterna av reducerad naringstillforsel i samtliga modeller av e ekter orsakade av ett varmare vatten.

  • 40.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, B. G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961-20992012Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 39, nr 9-10, s. 2421-2441Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.

  • 41.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea2017Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 49, nr 1-2, s. 163-172Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 42.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Ranjbar, Zohreh
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study2012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 558-573Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

  • 43.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Vaeli, Germo
    Naumann, Michael
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Recently Accelerated Oxygen Consumption Rates Amplify Deoxygenation in the Baltic Sea2018Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 123, nr 5, s. 3227-3240Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 44. Neumann, Thomas
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate2012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 574-585Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

  • 45. Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Parviainen, Maija
    Tarvainen, Virpi
    Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data2012Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, nr 6, s. 549-557Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.

  • 46.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates2019Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, nr 5-6, s. 3369-3387Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 47.
    Saraiva, Sofia
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Uncertainties in Projections of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Driven by an Ensemble of Global Climate Models2019Ingår i: FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE, ISSN 2296-6463, Vol. 6, artikel-id UNSP 244Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 48. Schneider, Bernd
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Lukkari, Kaarina
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Environmental Impacts-Marine Biogeochemistry2015Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine biogeochemistry deals with the budgets and transformations of biogeochemically reactive elements such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. Inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus compounds are the major nutrients and control organic matter (biomass) production in the surface water. Due to various anthropogenic activities, the input of these nutrients into the Baltic Sea has increased drastically during the last century and has enhanced the net organic matter production by a factor of 2-4 (eutrophication). This has led to detrimental oxygen depletion and hydrogen sulphide production in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. Model simulations based on the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) indicate that current eutrophication and thus extension of oxygen-depleted areas cannot be reversed within the next hundred years by the proposed nutrient reduction measures. Another environmental problem is related to decreasing pH (acidification) that is caused by dissolution of the rising atmospheric CO2. Estimates indicate a decrease in pH by about 0.15 during the last 1-2 centuries, and continuation of this trend may have serious ecological consequences. However, the concurrent increase in the alkalinity of the Baltic Sea may have significantly counteracted acidification.

  • 49. Skogen, Morten D.
    et al.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hansen, Jorgen L. S.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Molchanov, Mikhail S.
    Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.
    Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study2014Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 132, s. 174-184Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication status was made for a control (19702000) and a future climate (20702100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.

  • 50.
    Skogen, Morten
    et al.
    Havforskningsinstituttet, Norway.
    Søiland, H.
    Havforskningsinstituttet, Norway.
    Almroth, Elin
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Sehested Hansen, Ian
    DHI Water & Environment, Denmark.
    The year 2005: An environmental status report of the Skagerrak, Kattegat and the North Sea2009Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    This is the second year joint status report for the North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat area (Fig.1) carried out by SMHI, IMR and DHI as a part of the project BANSAI, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group. The aim of the project is to integrate marine observations and ecological model simulations in an annual assessment of the Baltic and the North seas. The present report is mainly based on model estimates of some of the indicators suggested by the OSPAR Common Procedure (c.f. Appendix) for the identification of the eutrophication status of the maritime area (OSPAR, 2002 and 2003). This first joint report serve as a basis for the on-going discussions about the ecological quality indicators included in the assessment, and the way to merge results from different models and observations for the assessment.Estimations of river discharges and model results are used to describe the degree of nutrient enrichment (Category I) defined by the riverine loadings of nitrogen and phosphorus, and winter surface concentrations and ratios of DIN and DIP. The direct effects of nutrient enrichment during the growing season (Category II) are described in terms of the mean and maximum chlorophyll concentrations and model estimations of primary production. The ratio between diatoms and flagellates is used as an indicator of region specific phytoplankton indicator species (Category II). The indirect effects of nutrient enrichment (Category III) are discussed in terms of oxygen depletion in bottom waters. Estimations of region specific background concentrations and threshold values are gathered from the literature and used for the model assessment.The three model systems used for the joint assessment (Fig. 2) cover different parts of the North Sea, Skagerrak and the Kattegat area. Detailed descriptions of the models may be found on the websites presented below the figure.In section 2 the key messages from this assessment will be presented. In section 3, each country gives a brief observations overview for 2005 and some references to other sources and reports that might be useful for the readers. The methods of the assessment are described in section 4. Statistical characteristics of model results and in-situ data are presented in section 5 and the model assessment of eutrophication status is done in section 6. Conclusions and comments to the assessment are presented in section 7.

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