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  • 1.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Kronobergs län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate i Kronoberg County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 2.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Norrbottens län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Norrbotten County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 3.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västerbottens län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västerbotten County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 4.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västra Götalands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västra Götaland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 5.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tofeldt, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Ivarsson, Cajsa-Lisa
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperaturer och is i Hjälmaren Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Calculations have been made for how the water release, water abstraction, water temperature and ice extent are expected to change in Lake Hjälmaren up to the year 2100 due to global warming.The most noticeable effects of the future climate on Lake Hjälmaren are expected to be:

    • More frequent low water levels
    • No change in the highest water levels (the calculated maximum water level)
    • An increase in water temperature
    • A shorter ice cover period.

    The water level in Lake Hjälmaren is only expected to change by a small amount in the future climate. The most obvious change is that low water levels will be more frequent, especially during the summer and autumn. This is due to an expected increase in evaporation, both from vegetation in the lake’s catchment area and from the surface of the lake. Currently the water level is lower than 21.6 m for about one month per year onaverage. In the future the water level is expected to be lower than 21.6 m for about 3.5 months.For the highest water levels (calculated maximum water level) an increase is shown for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) while changes are expected to be small for the scenario with limited emission of greenhouse gases (RCP4.5).The water temperature in Lake Hjälmaren is expected to increase by about half a degree by the middle of the century and by 1 to 2.5 degrees by the end of the century. The number of days per year where the surface water temperature exceeds 20 degrees is expected to increase from the current value of around 7 weeks per year to about 9 weeks per year by the middle of the century and up to 12 weeks per year by the end of the century. Currently Lake Hjälmaren is covered with ice every winter. In the future climate it is expected that there will be some winters without ice coverage. 

  • 6.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Tofeldt, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Rasmusson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Harbman, Ulrika
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperaturer och is i Vänern. Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Beräkningar har gjorts för hur vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperatur och is beräknas förändras i Vänern fram till 2100 på grund av den globala uppvärmningen. De tydligaste förändringarna i Vänern och Göta älv i ett framtida klimat beräknas bli att:  Det blir vanligare med låga nivåer i Vänern.  Det blir vanligare med höga nivåer i Vänern.  Det blir vanligare med låga tappningar i Göta älv.  Det blir vanligare med höga tappningar i Göta älv.  Det blir högre vattentemperaturer.  Det blir kortare perioder med is. I denna rapport redovisas nya beräkningar för Vänerns nivåer som ersätter de tidigare beräkningarna från 2010 (Bergström m.fl. 2010).

  • 7.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Tofeldt, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Rasmusson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperaturer och is i Vättern Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Calculations have been made for how the water level, water release, water temperature and ice extent are expected to change in Lake Vättern up to the year 2100 due to global warming.The most noticeable effects of the future climate on Lake Vättern are expected to be:

    • More frequent low water levels
    • Less frequent high water levels
    • No change in the highest water levels (the calculated maximum water level)
    • An increase in water temperature
    • A shorter ice cover period.

    With a warmer climate the evaporation is expected to increase, both from vegetation in the lake’s catchment area as well as directly from the surface of the lake. This means that the water level in Lake Vättern is expected to be lower in the future. Calculations show that the average water level in Lake Vättern is expected to drop by one to two decimetres by the end of the century, with about the same reduction for all seasons.The number of days per year where the water level is below 88.3 m is expected to increase from the present value of around 1.5 months to about 3 months by the middle of the century and 4-6 months by the end of the century. The highest levels, the calculated maximum water level, are expected to remain unchanged in the future.

  • 8.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Gävleborgs län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Gävleborg County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 9.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Jämtlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Jämtland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 10.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Värmlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Värmland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 11.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västernorrlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västernorrland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 12.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Blekinge län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Blekinge County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 13.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Jönköpings län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Jönköping County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 14.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Skånes län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Skåne County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 15.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västmanlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västmanland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 16.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rayner, David
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Från utsläppsscenarier till lokal nederbörd och översvämningsrisker2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report methods and results are presented from downscaling of about 40 climate scenarios to local time series for two drainage areas; River Torneå in northern Sweden and River Ätran in southern Sweden. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling has been made and flood maps have been produced for the cities Haparanda and Falkenberg. A study of future extreme precipitation is also presented. The work was performed within the project “Future rainfall and flooding in Sweden” financed by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB).

  • 17.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Uppsala län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Uppsala County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 18.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Dahné, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Köplin, Nina
    SMHI.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nordborg, Daniel
    SMHI.
    Hallberg, Kristoffer
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Södling, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Klimatscenarier för Sverige: Bearbetning av RCP-scenarier för meteorologiska och hydrologiska effektstudier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    I studien används två RCP-scenarier, RCP4.5 som bygger på låga utsläpp, och RCP8.5 med höga utsläpp. Båda har tillämpats med 9 olika globala klimatmodeller på olika forskningsinstitut runt om i världen. De globala dataseten har bearbetats med den regionala klimatmodellen RCA4 på Rossby Centre vid SMHI. Att samtliga dataset bearbetats av endast en regional klimatmodell ger en osäkerhet i resultaten. Den regionala modellen jämfördes därför med två andra modeller och en tendens för något blötare klimatsignal i norra Sverige påvisades. Användning av andra regionala modeller för samma ensemble av globala modeller och strålningsdrivningsscenarier kan därför komma att uppvisa en något torrare klimatsignal. SMHI har tidigare utarbetat den s.k. DBS-metoden (Distribution Based Scaling) för bearbetning av klimatscenariodata för hydrologiska effektstudier. Bearbetad klimatdata från klimatmodellerna används som drivdata för hydrologisk modellering samt statistiska analyser av meteorologisk och hydrologisk klimatdata. I studien har två hydrologiska modeller använts parallellt. Varje klimatscenario har bearbetats separat men resultaten presenteras som ensembler av RCP4.5 och 8.5. Analys av årsmedeltemperatur visar på ökad temperatur för hela Sverige i framtiden, och störst ökning sker med det högintensiva scenariot RCP8.5. Skillnaden mellan referensperioden 1961-1990 och slutet av seklet är från 4 graders ökning i södra Sverige till upp mot 6 grader längst i norr. RCP4.5, strålningsdrivningsscenariot som inkluderar utsläppsbegränsningar, visar generellt 2 grader lägre uppvärmning. Nederbörden väntas öka i framtida klimat, RCP4.5 visar på 10-30% ökning och RCP8.5 15-40% ökning. Ökningen är störst i norra Sverige. Medeltillrinningen väntas öka i hela landet utom i sydöstra Sverige, där det sker en minskning i tillrinningen. Störst ökning sker i landets norra delar. RCP8.5 ger det mest extrema resultatet både där tillrinningen ökar och där den minskar. Extrema tillrinningar, 100-årsflöden, väntas öka i älvar i södra Sverige mot slutet av seklet. I nordliga älvar sker en oväsentlig ökning eller till och med en minskning av 100-årsflödets storlek. Arbetet med nedskalning av RCP-scenarier har resulterat i en gedigen databas med meteorologiska och hydrologiska klimatindex. Syftet med databasen är fortsatta studier inom framtida klimat på läns- och kommunnivå. För sådana studier är det viktigt att ha kunskaper om osäkerheten i resultaten, vilka beskrivs i denna rapport.

  • 19.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Gunn
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Dalarnas län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Dalarna County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

1 - 19 of 19
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