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  • 1.
    Asp, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Stockholms län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Stockholm County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 2.
    Asp, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Södermanlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Södermanland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 3.
    Asp, Magnus
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Östergötlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Östergötland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 4.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Kronobergs län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate i Kronoberg County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 5.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Norrbottens län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Norrbotten County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 6.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västerbottens län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västerbotten County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 7.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västra Götalands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västra Götaland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 8.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Dahné, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Lindström, Lena
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Simonsson, Lennart
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sveriges framtida klimat: Underlag till Dricksvattenutredningen2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The latest results from climate research have been used to produce detailed analyses of Sweden’s future climate. The results build on the climate scenarios that have been used by the UN’s climate panel in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Two scenarios have been used in this analysis: RCP4.5, which significantly limits future emissions, and RCP8.5, which is a more conservative “business as usual” scenario. Calculations of the future climate and water availability are based on new material and some new conditions compared to analyses previously presented by SMHI. The calculated changes in precipitation, temperature, water availability and flooding are broadly the same as earlier reports. The use of the RCP8.5 scenario, with its high future concentration of greenhouse gases, strengthens the effects compared to previous analyses. Since the results of the UNs climate panel (AR5) were presented as late as 2013, the material produced by SMHI has involved intensive development. The results have required new methodologies and will continue to be evaluated by SMHI. Analyses have been made for a number of parameters that are relevant to the supply of drinking water. The table below summarises the results. Parameter Change Airtemperature Increasing in the whole country, in particular in northern Sweden, mainly during winter. Average precipitation Increasing in the whole country, in particular inland Norrland, mainly during winter and spring. Extreme short-term precipitation Increasing in the whole country, mainly for short-term heavy showers. Water availability Increasing in the whole country except for eastern Götaland. The increase is greatest during the winter. Decreasing during summer, in particular in eastern Götaland. 100-year floods and 200-year floods Increasing in large areas of the country. Decreasing in inland Norrland and the northern coast as well as north west Svealand. Low river flows Becoming more common in Götaland and Svealand, particularly in eastern Götaland. Sea levels Raised sea levels, with the greatest net rise in southern Sweden. Temperature Climate calculations show an increase in the mean annual temperature during the current century, but with a large spread of the result. The largest increase is calculated for the north, which is in agreement with earlier results from both SMHI and IPCC. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases towards the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario implies an increase of around 3 degrees on average by 2100, compared to the period 1961-1990. The increase is greater for RCP8.5, giving an average of around 6 degrees by 2100. Precipitation Average precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring. Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flow In the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland. Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations. In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature. Sea level The global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden. Precipitation Average precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring. Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flow In the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland. Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations. In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature. Sea level The global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden.

  • 9.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidens vattentillgång i Mälaren, Göta älv, Bolmen, Vombsjön och Gavleån Underlag till Dricksvattenutredningen2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Together with the reference group for climate change, the governmental investigation on drinking water has selected a few locations for more detailed case studies of the future drinking water supply. As a basis, SMHI has developed this climate analysis for the five catchment areas for Mälaren, Göta älv, Bolmen, Vombsjön and Gavleån.

    There is currently a high risk of flooding around Mälaren, but an increased regulation capacity at Slussen in Stockholm and a new regulation schedule will significantly reduce the risk of flooding. The increase in regulation capacity also provides for better management of any extreme inflows in the future. If the sea level rise is large (1 metre globally) then the water levels in Mälaren will sometimes be high, but the flood risk is not expected to be as great as today. Calculations also show that low water levels in Mälaren will be common in the future.

    The discharge in Göta älv is mostly controlled by the water level in Vänern together with the volume of water released from Vänern to Göta älv. In the future it is expected that both high and low water levels will be more common in Vänern. This means that it high and low water flows will be more common in Göta älv. However this could change if the regulation strategy for Vänern is changed.

    Future inflow to Bolmen is calculated to increase during the winter and decrease during spring and summer. It is expected that low inflow to the lake will be more common, while the 100-year inflow is expected to increase slightly.

    The average inflow to Vombsjön is expected to increase slightly, with a large seasonal variation showing increased inflow in the winter and a reduction during spring and summer. The summer period of low inflow is expected to be longer.

    The average flow in Gavleån is calculated to increase in the future, with a large seasonal variation. Spring floods are expected to ecrease and instead the winter flow will be greater. During the summer the flow is expected to decrease and the period of low flow will be longer.

  • 10.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tofeldt, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Ivarsson, Cajsa-Lisa
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperaturer och is i Hjälmaren Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Calculations have been made for how the water release, water abstraction, water temperature and ice extent are expected to change in Lake Hjälmaren up to the year 2100 due to global warming.The most noticeable effects of the future climate on Lake Hjälmaren are expected to be:

    • More frequent low water levels
    • No change in the highest water levels (the calculated maximum water level)
    • An increase in water temperature
    • A shorter ice cover period.

    The water level in Lake Hjälmaren is only expected to change by a small amount in the future climate. The most obvious change is that low water levels will be more frequent, especially during the summer and autumn. This is due to an expected increase in evaporation, both from vegetation in the lake’s catchment area and from the surface of the lake. Currently the water level is lower than 21.6 m for about one month per year onaverage. In the future the water level is expected to be lower than 21.6 m for about 3.5 months.For the highest water levels (calculated maximum water level) an increase is shown for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) while changes are expected to be small for the scenario with limited emission of greenhouse gases (RCP4.5).The water temperature in Lake Hjälmaren is expected to increase by about half a degree by the middle of the century and by 1 to 2.5 degrees by the end of the century. The number of days per year where the surface water temperature exceeds 20 degrees is expected to increase from the current value of around 7 weeks per year to about 9 weeks per year by the middle of the century and up to 12 weeks per year by the end of the century. Currently Lake Hjälmaren is covered with ice every winter. In the future climate it is expected that there will be some winters without ice coverage. 

  • 11.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Tofeldt, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Rasmusson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Harbman, Ulrika
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperaturer och is i Vänern. Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Beräkningar har gjorts för hur vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperatur och is beräknas förändras i Vänern fram till 2100 på grund av den globala uppvärmningen. De tydligaste förändringarna i Vänern och Göta älv i ett framtida klimat beräknas bli att:  Det blir vanligare med låga nivåer i Vänern.  Det blir vanligare med höga nivåer i Vänern.  Det blir vanligare med låga tappningar i Göta älv.  Det blir vanligare med höga tappningar i Göta älv.  Det blir högre vattentemperaturer.  Det blir kortare perioder med is. I denna rapport redovisas nya beräkningar för Vänerns nivåer som ersätter de tidigare beräkningarna från 2010 (Bergström m.fl. 2010).

  • 12.
    Eklund, Anna
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Tofeldt, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    German, Jonas
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Rasmusson, Maria
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattennivåer, tappningar, vattentemperaturer och is i Vättern Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Calculations have been made for how the water level, water release, water temperature and ice extent are expected to change in Lake Vättern up to the year 2100 due to global warming.The most noticeable effects of the future climate on Lake Vättern are expected to be:

    • More frequent low water levels
    • Less frequent high water levels
    • No change in the highest water levels (the calculated maximum water level)
    • An increase in water temperature
    • A shorter ice cover period.

    With a warmer climate the evaporation is expected to increase, both from vegetation in the lake’s catchment area as well as directly from the surface of the lake. This means that the water level in Lake Vättern is expected to be lower in the future. Calculations show that the average water level in Lake Vättern is expected to drop by one to two decimetres by the end of the century, with about the same reduction for all seasons.The number of days per year where the water level is below 88.3 m is expected to increase from the present value of around 1.5 months to about 3 months by the middle of the century and 4-6 months by the end of the century. The highest levels, the calculated maximum water level, are expected to remain unchanged in the future.

  • 13.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Gävleborgs län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Gävleborg County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 14.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Jämtlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Jämtland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 15.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Värmlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Värmland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 16.
    Nylén, Linda
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västernorrlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västernorrland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 17.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Blekinge län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Blekinge County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 18.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Jönköpings län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Jönköping County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 19.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Skånes län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Skåne County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 20.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Johnell, Anna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Västmanlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Västmanland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 21.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Gotlands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Gotland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 22.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Hallands län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Halland County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 23.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Kalmar län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Kalmar County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 24.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Örebro län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Örebro County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 25.
    Persson, Gunn
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Rayner, David
    SMHI.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Från utsläppsscenarier till lokal nederbörd och översvämningsrisker2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report methods and results are presented from downscaling of about 40 climate scenarios to local time series for two drainage areas; River Torneå in northern Sweden and River Ätran in southern Sweden. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling has been made and flood maps have been produced for the cities Haparanda and Falkenberg. A study of future extreme precipitation is also presented. The work was performed within the project “Future rainfall and flooding in Sweden” financed by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB).

  • 26.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Abdoush, Diala
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Sommaren 2018 - en glimt av framtiden?2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The weather in the summer of 2018 was extreme compared to what Sweden experienced during the 20th century. In some places, heat records were broken, and the combination of exceptional warm conditions with a deficit in precipitation caused a severe drought followed by forest fires and crop failure. Knowledge about impacts from climate change leads to the question: Will conditions like those in the summer of 2018 be average at the end of this century? This report compares different statistical measures from the summer of 2018 with by SMHI previously published climate scenarios.

  • 27.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Uppsala län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Uppsala County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 28.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Dahné, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Köplin, Nina
    SMHI.
    Björck, Emil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nordborg, Daniel
    SMHI.
    Hallberg, Kristoffer
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Södling, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Klimatscenarier för Sverige: Bearbetning av RCP-scenarier för meteorologiska och hydrologiska effektstudier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    I studien används två RCP-scenarier, RCP4.5 som bygger på låga utsläpp, och RCP8.5 med höga utsläpp. Båda har tillämpats med 9 olika globala klimatmodeller på olika forskningsinstitut runt om i världen. De globala dataseten har bearbetats med den regionala klimatmodellen RCA4 på Rossby Centre vid SMHI. Att samtliga dataset bearbetats av endast en regional klimatmodell ger en osäkerhet i resultaten. Den regionala modellen jämfördes därför med två andra modeller och en tendens för något blötare klimatsignal i norra Sverige påvisades. Användning av andra regionala modeller för samma ensemble av globala modeller och strålningsdrivningsscenarier kan därför komma att uppvisa en något torrare klimatsignal. SMHI har tidigare utarbetat den s.k. DBS-metoden (Distribution Based Scaling) för bearbetning av klimatscenariodata för hydrologiska effektstudier. Bearbetad klimatdata från klimatmodellerna används som drivdata för hydrologisk modellering samt statistiska analyser av meteorologisk och hydrologisk klimatdata. I studien har två hydrologiska modeller använts parallellt. Varje klimatscenario har bearbetats separat men resultaten presenteras som ensembler av RCP4.5 och 8.5. Analys av årsmedeltemperatur visar på ökad temperatur för hela Sverige i framtiden, och störst ökning sker med det högintensiva scenariot RCP8.5. Skillnaden mellan referensperioden 1961-1990 och slutet av seklet är från 4 graders ökning i södra Sverige till upp mot 6 grader längst i norr. RCP4.5, strålningsdrivningsscenariot som inkluderar utsläppsbegränsningar, visar generellt 2 grader lägre uppvärmning. Nederbörden väntas öka i framtida klimat, RCP4.5 visar på 10-30% ökning och RCP8.5 15-40% ökning. Ökningen är störst i norra Sverige. Medeltillrinningen väntas öka i hela landet utom i sydöstra Sverige, där det sker en minskning i tillrinningen. Störst ökning sker i landets norra delar. RCP8.5 ger det mest extrema resultatet både där tillrinningen ökar och där den minskar. Extrema tillrinningar, 100-årsflöden, väntas öka i älvar i södra Sverige mot slutet av seklet. I nordliga älvar sker en oväsentlig ökning eller till och med en minskning av 100-årsflödets storlek. Arbetet med nedskalning av RCP-scenarier har resulterat i en gedigen databas med meteorologiska och hydrologiska klimatindex. Syftet med databasen är fortsatta studier inom framtida klimat på läns- och kommunnivå. För sådana studier är det viktigt att ha kunskaper om osäkerheten i resultaten, vilka beskrivs i denna rapport.

  • 29.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Gunn
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Axén Mårtensson, Jenny
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Asp, Magnus
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berggreen-Clausen, Steve
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Berglöv, Gitte
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Nylén, Linda
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Ohlsson, Alexandra
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Persson, Håkan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Framtidsklimat i Dalarnas län - enligt RCP-scenarier2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The report describes todays and future climate in Dalarna County based on observations and climate modelling. Regional modelled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been further downscaled to 4×4 km2 resolution. The results are presented as meteorological and hydrological indices based on statistically processed model data.

  • 30.
    Stensen, Katarina
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Eklund, Anna
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattentemperaturer och is i Mälaren Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport presenterar hur vattentemperatur och is beräknas förändras i Mälaren tillmitten av seklet och fram till 2100 på grund av den globala uppvärmningen.Beräkningarna är gjorda med en sjömodell där Mälaren är uppdelad i två bassänger. Dekallas västra Mälaren och östra Mälaren.De tydligaste förändringarna i Mälaren i ett framtida klimat beräknas bli högrevattentemperaturer både på ytan och på botten samt kortare period med is. Iberäkningarna har två framtidsscenarier använts, vilka baseras på mängden växthusgaser iatmosfären. I det högre scenariot, vilket motsvarar fortsatta utsläpp med dagensutsläppsnivåer, ökar vattentemperaturen mer jämfört med scenariot där utsläppen avväxthusgaser är begränsade.Sammanfattning av resultaten för klimatscenarierna: Den årliga perioden som Mälaren är täckt med is beräknas minska med enmånad till två månader mot slutet av seklet. Ytvattnets medeltemperatur beräknas öka 1,5 till 2,5 grader för bådabassängerna. Förändringen är ungefär lika stor under hela året. Bottenvattnets medeltemperatur väntas öka mellan 1 till 2 grader i den grundarevästra bassängen och 0,5 till 1,5 grader i den djupare östra bassängen.Förändringen är ungefär lika stor under hela året. Maxtemperaturen ökar något mer än medeltemperaturen för både ytvatten ochbottenvatten. Den period som ytvattnets dygnsmedeltemperatur är över 20 grader, ökar medcirka en månad upp till en och en halv månad.Medeltemperaturen och maxtemperaturen för dagens klimat är beräknad utifråntidsperioden 1997-2015 och utifrån 2032-2050 och 2080-2098 för ett framtida klimat.Maxtemperaturen är det högsta värdet som beräknas uppnås under perioden.

  • 31.
    Stensen, Katarina
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Tengdelius Brunell, Johanna
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Sjökvist, Elin
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Andersson, Elinor
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Eklund, Anna
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Vattentemperaturer och is i Mälaren Beräkningar för dagens och framtidens klimatförhållanden2018Report (Other academic)
1 - 31 of 31
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