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  • 1. Akperov, M. G.
    et al.
    Eliseev, A. , V
    Mokhov, I. I.
    Semenov, V. A.
    Parfenova, M. R.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wind Energy Potential in the Arctic and Subarctic Regions and Its Projected Change in the 21st Century Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations2022In: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, ISSN 1068-3739, E-ISSN 1934-8096, Vol. 47, no 6, p. 428-436Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Eliseev, Alexey V.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Boberg, Fredrik
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Guenther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sein, Dmitry
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)2023In: Anthropocene, E-ISSN 2213-3054, Vol. 44, article id 100402Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 3. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Cassano, John
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya A.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Glisan, Justin
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Guenther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koldunov, Nikolay V.
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Scinocca, John F.
    Sein, Dmitry
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)2018In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 123, no 5, p. 2537-2554Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Parfenova, Mariya R.
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Boberg, Fredrik
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya A.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Gunther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koldunov, Nikolay, V
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Sein, Dmitry
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)2019In: Global and Planetary Change, ISSN 0921-8181, E-ISSN 1872-6364, Vol. 182, article id UNSP 103005Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5. Bador, Margot
    et al.
    Boe, Julien
    Terray, Laurent
    Alexander, Lisa, V
    Baker, Alexander
    Bellucci, Alessio
    Haarsma, Rein
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Moine, Marie-Pierre
    Lohmann, Katja
    Putrasahan, Dian A.
    Roberts, Chris
    Roberts, Malcolm
    Scoccimarro, Enrico
    Schiemann, Reinhard
    Seddon, Jon
    Senan, Retish
    Valcke, Sophie
    Vanniere, Benoit
    Impact of Higher Spatial Atmospheric Resolution on Precipitation Extremes Over Land in Global Climate Models2020In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 125, no 13, article id e2019JD032184Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 6. Bellucci, A.
    et al.
    Haarsma, R.
    Bellouin, N.
    Booth, B.
    Cagnazzo, C.
    van den Hurk, B.
    Keenlyside, N.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Massonnet, F.
    Materia, S.
    Weiss, M.
    Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers2015In: Reviews of geophysics, ISSN 8755-1209, E-ISSN 1944-9208, Vol. 53, no 2, p. 165-202Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as signal carriers, transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

  • 7.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Impacts of using spectral nudging on regional climate model RCA4 simulations of the Arctic2013In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 849-859Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The performance of the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4 is investigated for the Arctic CORDEX (COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) region, with an emphasis on its suitability to be coupled to a regional ocean and sea ice model. Large biases in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are identified, with pronounced too-high pressure centred over the North Pole in summer of over 5 hPa, and too-low pressure in winter of a similar magnitude. These lead to biases in the surface winds, which will potentially lead to strong sea ice biases in a future coupled system. The large-scale circulation is believed to be the major reason for the biases, and an implementation of spectral nudging is applied to remedy the problems by constraining the large-scale components of the driving fields within the interior domain. It is found that the spectral nudging generally corrects for the MSLP and wind biases, while not significantly affecting other variables, such as surface radiative components, two-metre temperature and precipitation.

  • 8.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    On the effects of constraining atmospheric circulation in a coupled atmosphere-ocean Arctic regional climate model2016In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 11-12, p. 3499-3515Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9. Brodeau, Laurent
    et al.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Extinction of the northern oceanic deep convection in an ensemble of climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries2016In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 9-10, p. 2863-2882Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Caian, Mihaela
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation2018In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 50, no 1-2, p. 423-441Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11.
    Caian, Mihaela
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation (vol 50, pg 423, 2017)2018In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 50, no 1-2, p. 443-443Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12. Cheung, Ho-Nam
    et al.
    Keenlyside, Noel
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    Tian, Tian
    Xu, Zhiqing
    Gao, Yongqi
    Ogawa, Fumiaki
    Omrani, Nour-Eddine
    Qiao, Shaobo
    Zhou, Wen
    Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections2022In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections
  • 13. Cheung, Ho-Nam
    et al.
    Keenlyside, Noel
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    Tian, Tian
    Xu, Zhiqing
    Gao, Yongqi
    Ogawa, Fumiaki
    Omrani, Nour-Eddine
    Qiao, Shaobo
    Zhou, Wen
    Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections (vol 59, pg 433, 2022)2022In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fetzer, E. J.
    The thermodynamic state of the Arctic atmosphere observed by AIRS: comparisons during the record minimum sea ice extents of 2007 and 20122013In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 13, no 15, p. 7441-7450Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The record sea ice minimum (SIM) extents observed during the summers of 2007 and 2012 in the Arctic are stark evidence of accelerated sea ice loss during the last decade. Improving our understanding of the Arctic atmosphere and accurate quantification of its characteristics becomes ever more crucial, not least to improve predictions of such extreme events in the future. In this context, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument onboard NASA's Aqua satellite provides crucial insights due to its ability to provide 3-D information on atmospheric thermodynamics. Here, we facilitate comparisons in the evolution of the thermodynamic state of the Arctic atmosphere during these two SIM events using a decade-long AIRS observational record (2003-2012). It is shown that the meteorological conditions during 2012 were not extreme, but three factors of preconditioning from winter through early summer played an important role in accelerating sea ice melt. First, the marginal sea ice zones along the central Eurasian and North Atlantic sectors remained warm throughout winter and early spring in 2012 preventing thicker ice build-up. Second, the circulation pattern favoured efficient sea ice transport out of the Arctic in the Atlantic sector during late spring and early summer in 2012 compared to 2007. Third, additional warming over the Canadian archipelago and southeast Beaufort Sea from May onward further contributed to accelerated sea ice melt. All these factors may have lead the already thin and declining sea ice cover to pass below the previous sea ice extent minimum of 2007. In sharp contrast to 2007, negative surface temperature anomalies and increased cloudiness were observed over the East Siberian and Chukchi seas in the summer of 2012. The results suggest that satellite-based monitoring of atmospheric preconditioning could be a critical source of information in predicting extreme sea ice melting events in the Arctic.

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    fulltext
  • 15.
    Docquier, David
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fichefet, Thierry
    Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Barents Sea Modeled at Different Resolutions2020In: Frontiers in Earth Science, E-ISSN 2296-6463, Vol. 8, article id 172Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16.
    Docquier, David
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    A review of interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice2021In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 16, no 12, article id 123002Article in journal (Refereed)
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    A review of interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice
  • 17.
    Docquier, David
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 20352021In: Communications Earth & Environment, E-ISSN 2662-4435, Vol. 2, no 1, article id 144Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Arctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models. The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as early as 2035, according to an analysis of CMIP6 models which selects only the models that best capture observed sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport

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    Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035
  • 18.
    Docquier, David
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Karami, Pasha
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan
    Impact of ocean heat transport on the Arctic sea-ice decline: a model study with EC-Earth32021In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 19.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Acosta, Mario
    Alessandri, Andrea
    Anthoni, Peter
    Arsouze, Thomas
    Bergman, Tommi
    Bernardello, Raffaele
    Boussetta, Souhail
    Caron, Louis-Philippe
    Carver, Glenn
    Castrillo, Miguel
    Catalano, Franco
    Cvijanovic, Ivana
    Davini, Paolo
    Dekker, Evelien
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
    Docquier, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Echevarria, Pablo
    Fladrich, Uwe
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Groger, Matthias
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Hardenberg, Jost, V
    Hieronymus, Jenny
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Karami, Pasha
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Keskinen, Jukka-Pekka
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Makkonen, Risto
    Massonnet, Francois
    Menegoz, Martin
    Miller, Paul A.
    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo
    Nieradzik, Lars
    van Noije, Twan
    Nolan, Paul
    O'Donnell, Declan
    Ollinaho, Pirkka
    van den Oord, Gijs
    Ortega, Pablo
    Tinto Prims, Oriol
    Ramos, Arthur
    Reerink, Thomas
    Rousset, Clement
    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan
    Le Sager, Philippe
    Schmith, Torben
    Schrodner, Roland
    Serva, Federico
    Sicardi, Valentina
    Madsen, Marianne Sloth
    Smith, Benjamin
    Tian, Tian
    Tourigny, Etienne
    Uotila, Petteri
    Vancoppenolle, Martin
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Warlind, David
    Willen, Ulrika
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    Yepes-Arbos, Xavier
    Zhang, Qiong
    The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 62022In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 15, no 7, p. 2973-3020Article in journal (Refereed)
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    The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
  • 20.
    Doescher, Ralf
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Arctic rapid sea ice loss events in regional coupled climate scenario experiments2013In: Ocean Science, ISSN 1812-0784, E-ISSN 1812-0792, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 217-248Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in a mini-ensemble of regional Arctic coupled climate model scenario experiments are analyzed. Mechanisms of sudden ice loss are strongly related to atmospheric circulation conditions and preconditioning by sea ice thinning during the seasons and years before the event. Clustering of events in time suggests a strong control by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Anomalous atmospheric circulation is providing warm air anomalies of up to 5 K and is forcing ice flow, affecting winter ice growth. Even without a seasonal preconditioning during winter, ice drop events can be initiated by anomalous inflow of warm air during summer. It is shown that RILEs can be generated based on atmospheric circulation changes as a major driving force without major competing mechanisms, other than occasional longwave effects during spring and summer. Other anomalous seasonal radiative forcing or short-lived forcers (e.g., soot) play minor roles or no role at all in our model. RILEs initiated by ocean forcing do not occur in the model, although cannot be ruled out due to model limitations. Mechanisms found are qualitatively in line with observations of the 2007 RILE.

  • 21.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Docquier, David
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Zimmermann, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century2023In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, E-ISSN 2397-3722, Vol. 6, no 1, article id 72Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century
  • 22.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns2020In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 72, no 1, article id 1764303Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 23.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sensitivity of the Arctic freshwater content and transport to model resolution2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 3-4, p. 1765-1781Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 24.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Docquier, David
    Graef, Federico
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Exploring the influence of the North Pacific Rossby wave sources on the variability of summer atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere2022In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Exploring the influence of the North Pacific Rossby wave sources on the variability of summer atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere
  • 25. Grist, Jeremy P.
    et al.
    Josey, Simon A.
    New, Adrian L.
    Roberts, Malcolm
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Iovino, Doroteaciro
    Increasing Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport in the Latest Generation Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: The Role of Air-Sea Interaction2018In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, ISSN 2169-9275, E-ISSN 2169-9291, Vol. 123, no 11, p. 8624-8637Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 26. Guemas, Virginie
    et al.
    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward
    Chevallier, Matthieu
    Day, Jonathan J.
    Deque, Michel
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
    Fuckar, Neven S.
    Germe, Agathe
    Hawkins, Ed
    Keeley, Sarah
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Salas y Melia, David
    Tietsche, Steffen
    A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales2016In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, no 695, p. 546-561Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

  • 27. Haarsma, Rein
    et al.
    Acosta, Mario
    Bakhshi, Rena
    Bretonniere, Pierre-Antoine
    Caron, Louis-Philippe
    Castrillo, Miguel
    Corti, Susanna
    Davini, Paolo
    Exarchou, Eleftheria
    Fabiano, Federico
    Fladrich, Uwe
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Garcia-Serrano, Javier
    von Hardenberg, Jost
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Levine, Xavier
    Meccia, Virna Loana
    van Noije, Twan
    van den Oord, Gijs
    Palmeiro, Froila M.
    Rodrigo, Mario
    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan
    Le Sager, Philippe
    Tourigny, Etienne
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    van Weele, Michiel
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR - description, model computational performance and basic validation2020In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 13, no 8, p. 3507-3527Article in journal (Refereed)
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    HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth
  • 28. Haarsma, Reindert J.
    et al.
    Roberts, Malcolm J.
    Vidale, Pier Luigi
    Senior, Catherine A.
    Bellucci, Alessio
    Bao, Qing
    Chang, Ping
    Corti, Susanna
    Fuckar, Neven S.
    Guemas, Virginie
    von Hardenberg, Jost
    Hazeleger, Wilco
    Kodama, Chihiro
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Leung, L. Ruby
    Lu, Jian
    Luo, Jing-Jia
    Mao, Jiafu
    Mizielinski, Matthew S.
    Mizuta, Ryo
    Nobre, Paulo
    Satoh, Masaki
    Scoccimarro, Enrico
    Semmler, Tido
    Small, Justin
    von Storch, Jin-Song
    High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP62016In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 9, no 11, p. 4185-4208Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 29.
    Hansen, Felicitas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Belušić, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble2023In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
    Download full text (pdf)
    Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation tn the SMHI large ensemble
  • 30. Hazeleger, Wilco
    et al.
    Severijns, Camiel
    Semmler, Tido
    Stefanescu, Simona
    Yang, Shuting
    Wang, Xueli
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Dutra, Emanuel
    Baldasano, Jose M.
    Bintanja, Richard
    Bougeault, Philippe
    Caballero, Rodrigo
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    Christensen, Jens H.
    van den Hurk, Bart
    Jimenez, Pedro
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kållberg, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    McGrath, Ray
    Miranda, Pedro
    Van Noije, Twan
    Palmer, Tim
    Parodi, Jose A.
    Schmith, Torben
    Selten, Frank
    Storelvmo, Trude
    Sterl, Andreas
    Tapamo, Honore
    Vancoppenolle, Martin
    Viterbo, Pedro
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    EC-Earth A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action2010In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 91, no 10, p. 1357-1363Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 31. Hermanson, Leon
    et al.
    Smith, Doug
    Seabrook, Melissa
    Bilbao, Roberto
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco
    Tourigny, Etienne
    Lapin, Vladimir
    Kharin, Viatcheslav V.
    Merryfield, William J.
    Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel
    Athanasiadis, Panos
    Nicoli, Dario
    Gualdi, Silvio
    Dunstone, Nick
    Eade, Rosie
    Scaife, Adam
    Collier, Mark
    O'Kane, Terence
    Kitsios, Vassili
    Sandery, Paul
    Pankatz, Klaus
    Frueh, Barbara
    Pohlmann, Holger
    Mueller, Wolfgang
    Kataoka, Takahito
    Tatebe, Hiroaki
    Ishii, Masayoshi
    Imada, Yukiko
    Kruschke, Tim
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Karami, Pasha
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    Tian, Tian
    Zhang, Liping
    Delworth, Tom
    Yang, Xiaosong
    Zeng, Fanrong
    Wang, Yiguo
    Counillon, Francois
    Keenlyside, Noel
    Bethke, Ingo
    Lean, Judith
    Luterbacher, Juerg
    Kolli, Rupa Kumar
    Kumar, Arun
    WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-252022In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 103, no 4, p. E1117-E1129Article in journal (Refereed)
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    WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25
  • 32. Jackson, L. C.
    et al.
    Roberts, M. J.
    Hewitt, H. T.
    Iovino, D.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meccia, V. L.
    Roberts, C. D.
    Ruprich-Robert, Y.
    Wood, R. A.
    Impact of ocean resolution and mean state on the rate of AMOC weakening2020In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 33. Jung, Thomas
    et al.
    Doblas-Reyes, Francisco
    Goessling, Helge
    Guemas, Virginie
    Bitz, Cecilia
    Buontempo, Carlo
    Caballero, Rodrigo
    Jakobson, Erko
    Jungclaus, Johann
    Karcher, Michael
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Matei, Daniela
    Overland, James
    Spengler, Thomas
    Yang, Shuting
    POLAR LOWER-LATITUDE LINKAGES AND THEIR ROLE IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION2015In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 96, no 11, p. ES197-ES200Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 34. Jungclaus, Johann H.
    et al.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Low-frequency variability of the arctic climate: the role of oceanic and atmospheric heat transport variations2010In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 34, no 2-3, p. 265-279Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 35.
    Karami, Pasha
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Mohtadi, M.
    Zhang, Q.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    West Asian climate during the last millennium according to the EC-Earth model2020In: Canadian journal of earth sciences (Print), ISSN 0008-4077, E-ISSN 1480-3313, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 102-113Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 36.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Beatty, Christof Konig
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model2012In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 38, no 11-12, p. 2389-2408Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations.

  • 37.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations2015In: Polar Research, ISSN 0800-0395, E-ISSN 1751-8369, Vol. 34, article id 24603Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA). The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15 degrees K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

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  • 38.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Brodeau, Laurent
    Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model2017In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 49, no 1-2, p. 471-492Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 39.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Brodeau, Laurent
    Ocean heat transport into the Arctic in the twentieth and twenty-first century in EC-Earth2014In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 42, no 11-12, p. 3101-3120Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The ocean heat transport into the Arctic and the heat budget of the Barents Sea are analyzed in an ensemble of historical and future climate simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. The zonally integrated northward heat flux in the ocean at 70A degrees N is strongly enhanced and compensates for a reduction of its atmospheric counterpart in the twenty first century. Although an increase in the northward heat transport occurs through all of Fram Strait, Canadian Archipelago, Bering Strait and Barents Sea Opening, it is the latter which dominates the increase in ocean heat transport into the Arctic. Increased temperature of the northward transported Atlantic water masses are the main reason for the enhancement of the ocean heat transport. The natural variability in the heat transport into the Barents Sea is caused to the same extent by variations in temperature and volume transport. Large ocean heat transports lead to reduced ice and higher atmospheric temperature in the Barents Sea area and are related to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The net ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea grows until about year 2050. Thereafter, both heat and volume fluxes out of the Barents Sea through the section between Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya are strongly enhanced and compensate for all further increase in the inflow through the Barents Sea Opening. Most of the heat transported by the ocean into the Barents Sea is passed to the atmosphere and contributes to warming of the atmosphere and Arctic temperature amplification. Latent and sensible heat fluxes are enhanced. Net surface long-wave and solar radiation are enhanced upward and downward, respectively and are almost compensating each other. We find that the changes in the surface heat fluxes are mainly caused by the vanishing sea ice in the twenty first century. The increasing ocean heat transport leads to enhanced bottom ice melt and to an extension of the area with bottom ice melt further northward. However, no indication for a substantial impact of the increased heat transport on ice melt in the Central Arctic is found. Most of the heat that is not passed to the atmosphere in the Barents Sea is stored in the Arctic intermediate layer of Atlantic water, which is increasingly pronounced in the twenty first century.

  • 40.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Brodeau, Laurent
    Graversen, Rune Grand
    Karlsson, Johannes
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth2013In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 40, no 11-12, p. 2719-2743Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic climate change is analyzed in an ensemble of future projection simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earth simulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relatively well but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea ice thickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-first century, the results show a continuation and strengthening of the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades, which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate, especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The annually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperature increases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in the Barents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced in winter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arctic winter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios and disappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free in September in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reduction event without recovery around year 2060. Taking into account the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century, our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic in September around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronounced in the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to the most dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heat fluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantially decreased. The meridional heat flux into the Arctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in the ocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhanced heat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes to the large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in this region. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to more freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most of the additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean while the total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.

  • 41.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Matei, D.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Tyrlis, E.
    Wang, Shiyu
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wilcke, Renate
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    On the contribution of internal climate variability to European future climate trends2020In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 72, no 1Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 42.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions2016In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 1-2, p. 317-337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980-2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO-negative after low ice-but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes.

  • 43.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Summer Arctic sea ice albedo in CMIP5 models2014In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 14, no 4, p. 1987-1998Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Spatial and temporal variations of summer sea ice albedo over the Arctic are analyzed using an ensemble of historical CMIP5 model simulations. The results are compared to the CLARA-SAL product that is based on long-term satellite observations. The summer sea ice albedo varies substantially among CMIP5 models, and many models show large biases compared to the CLARA-SAL product. Single summer months show an extreme spread of ice albedo among models; July values vary between 0.3 and 0.7 for individual models. The CMIP5 ensemble mean, however, agrees relatively well in the central Arctic but shows too high ice albedo near the ice edges and coasts. In most models, the ice albedo is spatially too uniformly distributed. The summer-to-summer variations seem to be underestimated in many global models, and almost no model is able to reproduce the temporal evolution of ice albedo throughout the summer fully. While the satellite observations indicate the lowest ice albedos during August, the models show minimum values in July and substantially higher values in August. Instead, the June values are often lower in the models than in the satellite observations. This is probably due to too high surface temperatures in June, leading to an early start of the melt season and too cold temperatures in August causing an earlier refreezing in the models. The summer sea ice albedo in the CMIP5 models is strongly governed by surface temperature and snow conditions, particularly during the period of melt onset in early summer and refreezing in late summer. The summer surface net solar radiation of the ice-covered Arctic areas is highly related to the ice albedo in the CMIP5 models. However, the impact of the ice albedo on the sea ice conditions in the CMIP5 models is not clearly visible. This indicates the importance of other Arctic and large-scale processes for the sea ice conditions.

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  • 44.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Arctic future scenario experiments with a coupled regional climate model2011In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 63, no 1, p. 69-86Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 45.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures?2019In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 39, no 11, p. 4567-4574Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 46.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meccia, Virna L.
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Jackson, Laura C.
    New, Adrian L.
    Ortega, Pablo
    Roberts, Christopher D.
    Roberts, Malcolm J.
    Arsouze, Thomas
    Iovino, Doroteaciro
    Moine, Marie-Pierre
    Sein, Dmitry V.
    Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models2021In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Simulations from seven global coupled climate models performed at high and standard resolution as part of the high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) are analyzed to study deep ocean mixing in the Labrador Sea and the impact of increased horizontal resolution. The representation of convection varies strongly among models. Compared to observations from ARGO-floats and the EN4 data set, most models substantially overestimate deep convection in the Labrador Sea. In four out of five models, all four using the NEMO-ocean model, increasing the ocean resolution from 1 degrees to 1/4 degrees leads to increased deep mixing in the Labrador Sea. Increasing the atmospheric resolution has a smaller effect than increasing the ocean resolution. Simulated convection in the Labrador Sea is mainly governed by the release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and by the vertical stratification of the water masses in the Labrador Sea in late autumn. Models with stronger sub-polar gyre circulation have generally higher surface salinity in the Labrador Sea and a deeper convection. While the high-resolution models show more realistic ocean stratification in the Labrador Sea than the standard resolution models, they generally overestimate the convection. The results indicate that the representation of sub-grid scale mixing processes might be imperfect in the models and contribute to the biases in deep convection. Since in more than half of the models, the Labrador Sea convection is important for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this raises questions about the future behavior of the AMOC in the models.

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    Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models
  • 47.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Meccia, Virna L.
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Jackson, Laura C.
    New, Adrian L.
    Ortega, Pablo
    Roberts, Christopher D.
    Roberts, Malcolm J.
    Arsouze, Thomas
    Iovino, Doroteaciro
    Moine, Marie-Pierre
    Sein, Dmitry V.
    Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models (vol 57, pg 1895, 2021)2021In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models
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    Correction to_ Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models
  • 48.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Gao, Y.
    Gastineau, G.
    Keenlyside, N.
    Nakamura, T.
    Ogawa, F.
    Orsolini, Y.
    Semenov, V.
    Suo, L.
    Tian, T.
    Wang, T.
    Wettstein, J. J.
    Yang, S.
    Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas2019In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, no 5-6, p. 3111-3137Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 49.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Mikolajewicz, Uwe
    Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes in a global coupled model2009In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 32, no 6, p. 783-798Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 50.
    Koenigk, Torben
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Mikolajewicz, Uwe
    Jungclaus, Johann H.
    Kroll, Alexandra
    Sea ice in the Barents Sea: seasonal to interannual variability and climate feedbacks in a global coupled model2009In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 32, no 7-8, p. 1119-1138Article in journal (Refereed)
12 1 - 50 of 70
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