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  • 1.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Christensen, Ole B.
    Klehmet, Katharina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Lenderink, Geert
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Teichmann, Claas
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11 degrees ensemble at an hourly resolution2019In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 19, no 4, p. 957-971Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2. Jacob, Daniela
    et al.
    Petersen, Juliane
    Eggert, Bastian
    Alias, Antoinette
    Christensen, Ole Bossing
    Bouwer, Laurens M.
    Braun, Alain
    Colette, Augustin
    Deque, Michel
    Georgievski, Goran
    Georgopoulou, Elena
    Gobiet, Andreas
    Menut, Laurent
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Haensler, Andreas
    Hempelmann, Nils
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Keuler, Klaus
    Kovats, Sari
    Kroener, Nico
    Kotlarski, Sven
    Kriegsmann, Arne
    Martin, Eric
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Moseley, Christopher
    Pfeifer, Susanne
    Preuschmann, Swantje
    Radermacher, Christine
    Radtke, Kai
    Rechid, Diana
    Rounsevell, Mark
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Somot, Samuel
    Soussana, Jean-Francois
    Teichmann, Claas
    Valentini, Riccardo
    Vautard, Robert
    Weber, Bjorn
    Yiou, Pascal
    EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research2014In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 14, no 2, p. 563-578Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.

  • 3. Kamarainen, Matti
    et al.
    Hyvarinen, Otto
    Vajda, Andrea
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Teichmann, Claas
    Jacob, Daniela
    Gregow, Hilppa
    Jylha, Kirsti
    Estimates of Present-Day and Future Climatologies of Freezing Rain in Europe Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models2018In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 123, no 23, p. 13291-13304Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4. Vautard, Robert
    et al.
    Gobiet, Andreas
    Jacob, Daniela
    Belda, Michal
    Colette, Augustin
    Deque, Michel
    Fernandez, Jesus
    Garcia-Diez, Markel
    Goergen, Klaus
    Guettler, Ivan
    Halenka, Tomas
    Karacostas, Theodore
    Katragkou, Eleni
    Keuler, Klaus
    Kotlarski, Sven
    Mayer, Stephanie
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Patarcic, Mirta
    Scinocca, John
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Suklitsch, Martin
    Teichmann, Claas
    Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten
    Wulfmeyer, Volker
    Yiou, Pascal
    The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project2013In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 41, no 9-10, p. 2555-2575Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.

  • 5. Vautard, Robert
    et al.
    Gobiet, Andreas
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Stegehuis, Annemiek
    Watkiss, Paul
    Mendlik, Thomas
    Landgren, Oskar
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Teichmann, Claas
    Jacob, Daniela
    The European climate under a 2 degrees C global warming2014In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, no 3, article id 034006Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A global warming of 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 degrees C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North-South (West-East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models' climate sensitivity.

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