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  • 1. Aas, W.
    et al.
    Tsyro, S.
    Bieber, E.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Ceburnis, D.
    Ellermann, T.
    Fagerli, H.
    Froelich, M.
    Gehrig, R.
    Makkonen, U.
    Nemitz, E.
    Otjes, R.
    Perez, N.
    Perrino, C.
    Prevot, A. S. H.
    Putaud, J. -P
    Simpson, D.
    Spindler, G.
    Vana, M.
    Yttri, K. E.
    Lessons learnt from the first EMEP intensive measurement periods2012Inngår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 12, nr 17, s. 8073-8094Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The first EMEP intensive measurement periods were held in June 2006 and January 2007. The measurements aimed to characterize the aerosol chemical compositions, including the gas/aerosol partitioning of inorganic compounds. The measurement program during these periods included daily or hourly measurements of the secondary inorganic components, with additional measurements of elemental- and organic carbon (EC and OC) and mineral dust in PM1, PM2.5 and PM10. These measurements have provided extended knowledge regarding the composition of particulate matter and the temporal and spatial variability of PM, as well as an extended database for the assessment of chemical transport models. This paper summarise the first experiences of making use of measurements from the first EMEP intensive measurement periods along with EMEP model results from the updated model version to characterise aerosol composition. We investigated how the PM chemical composition varies between the summer and the winter month and geographically. The observation and model data are in general agreement regarding the main features of PM10 and PM2.5 composition and the relative contribution of different components, though the EMEP model tends to give slightly lower estimates of PM10 and PM2.5 compared to measurements. The intensive measurement data has identified areas where improvements are needed. Hourly concurrent measurements of gaseous and particulate components for the first time facilitated testing of modelled diurnal variability of the gas/aerosol partitioning of nitrogen species. In general, the modelled diurnal cycles of nitrate and ammonium aerosols are in fair agreement with the measurements, but the diurnal variability of ammonia is not well captured. The largest differences between model and observations of aerosol mass are seen in Italy during winter, which to a large extent may be explained by an underestimation of residential wood burning sources. It should be noted that both primary and secondary OC has been included in the calculations for the first time, showing promising results. Mineral dust is important, especially in southern Europe, and the model seems to capture the dust episodes well. The lack of measurements of mineral dust hampers the possibility for model evaluation for this highly uncertain PM component. There are also lessons learnt regarding improved measurements for future intensive periods. There is a need for increased comparability between the measurements at different sites. For the nitrogen compounds it is clear that more measurements using artefact free methods based on continuous measurement methods and/or denuders are needed. For EC/OC, a reference methodology (both in field and laboratory) was lacking during these periods giving problems with comparability, though measurement protocols have recently been established and these should be followed by the Parties to the EMEP Protocol. For measurements with no defined protocols, it might be a good solution to use centralised laboratories to ensure comparability across the network. To cope with the introduction of these new measurements, new reporting guidelines have been developed to ensure that all proper information about the methodologies and data quality is given.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 2. Achberger, C
    et al.
    Chen, D L
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    The surface winds of Sweden during 1999-20002006Inngår i: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 26, nr 2, s. 159-178Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This study aims at increasing our understanding of the regional wind climate in Sweden. Spatial and temporal patterns of the surface winds are presented for the years 1999-2000. Annual mean wind speeds range between 2 and 5 m/s with high values at exposed mountainous sites and on islands off the coast. Combining wind speed and direction into mean wind velocities shows that flow conditions are stronger and more coherent in space in southern Sweden than in central and northern Sweden. The spatial scale, defined as the distance between stations when the correlation for wind speed drops to similar to 0.37, was determined by pairwise correlations between all possible station pairs. Scales range from 38 to 530 km for wind speed and from 40 to 830 km for wind direction depending on the region. They tend to be smaller in central and northern Sweden, where the more pronounced relief has a larger influence on the local wind conditions. The strength and the timing of the annual and diurnal wind speed cycle have been estimated for each station. Amplitudes of the annual cycle are greater at exposed sites and correlate generally well with annual mean wind speeds. Monthly mean wind speeds peak in winter in southern Sweden, but peak in other seasons in the remaining regions. In winter, weaker pressure gradients over northern Sweden and surface-near temperature inversions contribute to weaker surface winds. Diurnal cycles vary in strength between summer and winter. Compared to the last normal climate period (1961-1990), 1999-2000 is characterized by the increased occurrence of westerly and southerly geostrophic flow. Copyright (C) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

  • 3. Aggarwal, Pradeep K.
    et al.
    Romatschke, Ulrike
    Araguas-Araguas, Luis
    Belachew, Dagnachew
    Longstaffe, Frederick J.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Schumacher, Courtney
    Funk, Aaron
    Proportions of convective and stratiform precipitation revealed in water isotope ratios2016Inngår i: Nature Geoscience, ISSN 1752-0894, E-ISSN 1752-0908, Vol. 9, nr 8, s. 624-+Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 4.
    Ahlkrona, Malva
    SMHI.
    Phospherous in a Biogeochemical Lake Model2002Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    BIOLA isa biogeochemical lake model within the V ASTRA research programme. The model's

    main purpose is to predict the ecological responses to changed nutrient loads. The phosphorus simulations were not satisfactory and the sediment was thought to be the critical part. The aim of this work was to improve the phosphorus simulations. Therefore a new sediment approach has been developed. Three main changes of the sediment processes were carried through:

    • Resuspension of sediments from erosion and transportation bottoms was added

    • The sediments were divided into an upper, aerobic, and a lower, anaerobic, layer

    • The relation between sorbed and dissolved phosphorus in the sediments was described by

    Langmuir isotherms, with a sorption 2.5 times higher at aerobic compared to anaerobic

    conditions

    The modelling of total phosphorus and blue-green algae was improved. Especially the timing of high concentration peaks was much better. One problem still lingering is the modelled oxygen levels, which were much higher than the observed levels. Therefore the model has not been tested for anaerobic conditions. A verage release rates from the sediments were 2.5 mg Pa-1 <luring the summer, which is reasonable. A 20-year simulation of step-response was run with increased and decreased nutrient loads. Roughly four years after the change, the model had reached a new equilibrium.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 5.
    Ahlström, Bengt
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Salomonsson, Gösta
    SMHI.
    Resultat av 5-dygnsprognos till ledning för isbrytarverksamhet vintern 1984–851985Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Temperaturprognoserna och vindprognoserna för pentad 1-5 har haft hög träffprocent. Medelvärdet 83.3 för pentadtemperaturen är det näst bästa under den senaste 10-årsperioden, och värdet 74.0 för vindprognoserna det tredje bästa. Intrycket av en förbättring av prognoskvalitén from säsongen 1978/79, vilket framhölls i föregående års rapport, befästs av 1984/85 års resultat. När det gäller temperaturprognoserna för pentad 6-10 kan man däremot inte se någon nämnvärd förbättring.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 6. Ahmadalipour, Ali
    et al.
    Moradkhani, Hamid
    Rana, Arun
    SMHI.
    Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin2018Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 50, nr 1-2, s. 717-733Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 7. Ahmed, Mohamed Ismaiel
    et al.
    Shook, Kevin
    Pietroniro, Alain
    Stadnyk, Tricia
    Pomeroy, John W.
    Pers, Charlotta
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Implementing a parsimonious variable contributing area algorithm for the prairie pothole region in the HYPE modelling framework2023Inngår i: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 167, artikkel-id 105769Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Implementing a parsimonious variable contributing area algorithm for the prairie pothole region in the HYPE modelling framework
  • 8. Aich, Valentin
    et al.
    Liersch, Stefan
    Vetter, Tobias
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Mueller, Eva N.
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Climate or Land Use?-Attribution of Changes in River Flooding in the Sahel Zone2015Inngår i: Water, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 7, nr 6, s. 2796-2820Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 9. Aich, Valentin
    et al.
    Liersch, Stefan
    Vetter, Tobias
    Fournet, Samuel
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Calmanti, Sandro
    van Weert, Frank H. A.
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Paton, Eva N.
    Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change2016Inngår i: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 562, s. 666-677Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 10. Akhtar, Naveed
    et al.
    Krug, Amelie
    Brauch, Jennifer
    Arsouze, Thomas
    Dieterich, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Ahrens, Bodo
    European marginal seas in a regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model and their impact on Vb-cyclones and associated precipitation2019Inngår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, nr 9-10, s. 5967-5984Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 11.
    Akinde, Michael
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Bohlen, M H
    Johnson, T
    Lakshmanan, L V S
    Srivastava, D
    Efficient OLAP query processing in distributed data warehouses2003Inngår i: Information Systems, ISSN 0306-4379, E-ISSN 1873-6076, Vol. 28, nr 1-2, s. 111-135Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The success of Internet applications has led to an explosive growth in the demand for bandwidth from. Internet Service Providers. Managing an Internet protocol network requires collecting and analyzing network data, such as flow-level traffic statistics. Such analyses can typically be expressed as OLAP queries, e.g., correlated aggregate queries and data cubes. Current day OLAP tools for this task assume the availability of the data in a centralized data warehouse. However, the inherently distributed nature of data collection and the huge amount of data extracted at each collection point make it impractical to gather all data at a centralized site. One solution is to maintain a distributed data warehouse, consisting of local data warehouses at-each collection point and a coordinator site, with most of the processing being performed at the local sites. In this paper, we consider the problem of efficient evaluation of OLAP queries over a distributed data warehouse. We have developed the Skalla system for this task. Skalla translates OLAP queries, specified as certain algebraic expressions, into distributed evaluation plans which are shipped to individual sites. A salient property of our approach is that only partial results are shipped - never parts of the detail data. We propose a variety of optimizations to minimize both the synchronization traffic and the local processing done at each site. We finally present an experimental study based on TPC-R data. Our results demonstrate the scalability of our techniques and quantify the performance benefits of the optimization techniques that have gone into the Skalla system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 12. Akinsanola, A. A.
    et al.
    Ajayi, V. O.
    Adejare, A. T.
    Adeyeri, O. E.
    Gbode, I. E.
    Ogunjobi, K. O.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Abolude, A. T.
    Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models2018Inngår i: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, E-ISSN 1434-4483, Vol. 132, nr 1-2, s. 437-450Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 13. Akperov, M. G.
    et al.
    Eliseev, A. , V
    Mokhov, I. I.
    Semenov, V. A.
    Parfenova, M. R.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Wind Energy Potential in the Arctic and Subarctic Regions and Its Projected Change in the 21st Century Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations2022Inngår i: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, ISSN 1068-3739, E-ISSN 1934-8096, Vol. 47, nr 6, s. 428-436Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 14. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Eliseev, Alexey V.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Boberg, Fredrik
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Guenther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Sein, Dmitry
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)2023Inngår i: Anthropocene, E-ISSN 2213-3054, Vol. 44, artikkel-id 100402Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 15. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Cassano, John
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya A.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Glisan, Justin
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Guenther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koldunov, Nikolay V.
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Scinocca, John F.
    Sein, Dmitry
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)2018Inngår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 123, nr 5, s. 2537-2554Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 16. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Parfenova, Mariya R.
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Boberg, Fredrik
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya A.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Gunther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Koldunov, Nikolay, V
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Sein, Dmitry
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)2019Inngår i: Global and Planetary Change, ISSN 0921-8181, E-ISSN 1872-6364, Vol. 182, artikkel-id UNSP 103005Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 17. Akselsson, Cecilia
    et al.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Belyazid, Salim
    Capell, Réne
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Can increased weathering rates due to future warming compensate for base cation losses following whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests?2016Inngår i: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 128, nr 1-2, s. 89-105Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 18. Alberoni, P P
    et al.
    Andersson, T
    SMHI.
    Mezzasalma, P
    Michelson, Daniel
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Nanni, S
    Use of the vertical reflectivity profile for identification of anomalous propagation2001Inngår i: Meteorological Applications, ISSN 1350-4827, E-ISSN 1469-8080, Vol. 8, nr 3, s. 257-266Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Anomalous propagation (anaprop), analogous to the upper mirage in the visual wavelengths, is still a major problem in radar meteorology. This phenomenon assumes particular importance in automatic recognition and estimation of rainfall. Anaprop echoes from terrain features such as hills and coasts Often give echoes up to 50-60 dBZ equivalent to heavy rain or hail in severe thunderstorms. Anaprop echoes from sea waves may be comparable in strength to those from moderate precipitation and also form similar patterns. Based on the evidence that the vertical reflectivity profile of precipitation is quite different from the anaprop profile, two methods for anaprop identification are presented. The method proposed by the Servizio Meteorologico Regionale (SMR, Italy) simply uses the operational scan procedure to discriminate between precipitation and anaprop. At the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute an 'ad hoc' scan strategy has been developed in order to obtain much more detail of the lowest reflectivity profile. A number of statistical parameters have been used to achieve a better discrimination between precipitation, land and sea clutter. A number of case studies, representing different echo intensities and patterns, and including a case of anaprop with embedded precipitation, are presented to assess the impact of these methods.

  • 19.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Korrektion av nederbörd enligt enkel klimatologisk metodik2003Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 20.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Temperatur och nederbörd i Sverige 1860 -20012002Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Swedish temperature and precipitation series from 1860-2001 are analysed  in this report. Sweden  is divided into four regions. These are defined according to the drainage basins: Gulf of Bothnia (Bv), Bothnian Sea (Bh), Proper Baltic Sea (EÖ) and Kattegatt and Skagerrak (Vh). Annual series of  temperature and precipitation as well as series for the traditional  seasons  winter (December  previous year, January, February), spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August) and autumn (Sep­ tember, October, November) are presented. All series have been homgenised and all missing values for incomplete series have been filled out by    interpolation.

     

    Generally the analyses show that Sweden has become warmer  and wetter  in this centennial  perspective.  As a rule changes and trends are larger in the two northerly regions (Bv and Bh). The increase of annual temperature amounts to 0.9° (Bv), 0.8° (Bh), 0.5° (EÖ) and 0.5° (Vh) when data from the colder period 1860-1925 is compared with the warmer period 1926-2001. Annual precipitation <luring the drier period 1860-1920  is compared  with the wetter  period  1921-2001. The  relative changes  are 23% (Bv), 15% (Bh), 7% (EÖ) and 7% (Vh). Spring temperature  and winter precipitation  show especially !arge    mcreases.

     

    Comparisons with runoff data indicate that evapotranspiration has become much larger. It is argued that the substantial increase of forest biomass could be one explanation and higher temperatures could be another. The increase of forest biomass leads to larger interception and then larger evaporation and as a rule also larger transpiration. The warming in spring and autumn leads to a longer active season for the vegetation.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 21.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Temperatur och nederbörd i Sverige 1860 -20012002Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 22.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Vindstatistik för Sverige 1961-20042010Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Rapportens främsta syfte är att ta fram medelvärden som kan användas för att bedöma om en aktuell månad har varit blåsigare eller lugnare än normalt och med hur mycket, till exempel i procent. Vindobservationer från perioden 1961- 2004 har ingått i bearbetningen vilket gör att det finns vissa möjligheter att se på förändringar under denna ganska långa period. Då den aktuella normalperioden är 1961-1990 har tonvikten lagts på denna period. Många av stationerna startade dock i mitten av 1990-talet varför det för de flesta stationerna finns fler direkt uppmätta värden under perioden 1991-2004. Medelvärden för denna period ges därför också i tabellform. Senaste publikationen med omfattande vindstatistik är Klimatdata för Sverige (Taesler, 1972)

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 23.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Dahlström, Bengt
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Future climate in the Nordic region – survey and synthesis for the next century1992Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, chlorfluorcarbons and nitrous  oxide are increasing due to man's activities. 0n physical grounds it is generally believed that this will influence the climate of the earth. Observational evidence, mainly global mean temperatures, indicate that the earth becomes warmer at present. It is, however, not possible to rule out that natura! factors have caused observed changes until now. Swedish data show small or no trends at present.

    The suggested scenarios for Sweden are given in interval form to express the large uncertainty. For temperature and precipitation in the years around 2030 we suggest the following changes compared with the levels around 1990.

                     Winter   Summer Winter     Summer.            

                     temp.    temp.     Prec.       Prec.

    Northern

    Sweden:    0.5-1.5  00-1.5     0-15 %   0-10 %

    Southern

    Sweden:    0.0-1.0  0.0-0.5    0-15 %   0-10 %

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 24.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Eggertsson Karlström, Carla
    SMHI.
    Temperaturen och nederbörden i Sverige 1961-1990: Referensnormaler - utgåva 22001Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 25.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Eggertsson Karlström, Carla
    SMHI.
    Larsson-McCann, Sonja
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Temperaturen och nederbörden i Sverige 1961-90: Referensnormaler1991Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Mean values of temperature and precipitation are presented in this report. Reference normals for the period 1961-90 have been calculated for 510 stations with temperature measurements and for 1243 stations with precipitation measurements. These values, monthly and annual, will be used in comparison with measured actual values.

    The report also contains maps, for every month and for the year, showing the differences for temperature and ratios for precipitation between the reference values for the periods 1961-90 and 1931-60. Two other maps show mean monthly reference temperatures for January and July respectively. Another two maps show the average annual number of days with 1 mm or more and the average annual precipitation.

    In the end of the report there is a list of all the stations with reference values and a map containing all the stations that also were operating the first of januari 1991.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 26.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Eggertsson Karlström, Carla
    SMHI.
    Laurin, Sten
    SMHI.
    Några huvuddrag i det svenska nederbördsklimatet 1961-19901997Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 27.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Eriksson, Bertil
    SMHI.
    Climate fluctuations in Sweden 1860–19871989Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    We are living in a time when there is a great concern and anxiety on climate changes, induced by man or natural. Figures showing trends or abrupt changes may not seldom be based on rather poor climate records. Thus we have started a climate project at SMHI where we have taken great care to avoid non- homogeneous records and where we have limited our aims to the period of instrumental records (mainly from 1860 in Sweden but a few stations have data from about 1750). Three elements have been studied extensively: temperature, precipitation and air pressure. Two main areas within Sweden were selected. In order to avoid non- homogeneous data the temporal analysis was preceded by a spatial homogeneity test which revealed several discontinuities and artificial trends. Long- term fluctuations were visualized by using a Gaussian low pass filter. One interesting feature is that the pressure difference northern to southern Sweden showed a decrease by about 10% around 1930. The corresponding decrease of the zonal wind may to some extent explain the quite large frequency of cold winters in later decades as high winter temperatures in Scandinavia is strongly connected with westerly and southwesterly inflow of mild and humid Atlantic air-masses. Another interesting but still somewhat questionable feature is the dry early decades.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 28.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    Meterologi.
    Meuller, Lars
    SMHI.
    An energy balance model for prediction of surface temperatures1991Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    From the winter season 1988/89 and onwards an energy balance model has been used to estimate surface temperatures within a weather seivice system for the road authorities in "Östergötlands" and "Göteborg-Bohuslän" in Sweden. It is based on a simplified form of the energy balance equation at the surface and a numerical model with ten layers in the ground or road. In the road seivice system manually given forecasts of clouds and wind are used as input into the model. The initial values of surface temperatures are obtained on-line from the road stations involved. Forecasts of surface temperatures have been made for up to five hours and give significantly better results than e.g. perstistency or linear trend forecasts.

    The model has also been generalized to run directly on model output clouds an winds and to give forecasts for a large area. As starting values we then use screen temperatures analysed in a grid net with a resolution of about 20 km covering Scandinavia. Initial surface temperatures are obtained through extrapolation to the ground. Through a relaxation formula forecasted surface temperatures are then transformed back to screen level. The temperature forecasts obtained in this way seem to be much better than the LAM-model gives where the daily amplitude is too small.

    This latter model is henceforth called the objective system while the former is called the road seivice system. The two aystems have large parts in common. Differing parts are indicated in section headings ant text.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 29.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Moberg, A
    Homogenization of Swedish temperature data .1. Homogeneity test for linear trends1997Inngår i: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 17, nr 1, s. 25-34Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A new test for the detection of linear trends of arbitrary length in normally distributed time series is developed. With this test it is possible to detect and estimate gradual changes of the mean value in a candidate series compared with a homogeneous reference series. The test is intended for studies of artificial relative trends in climatological time series, e.g. an increasing urban heat island effect. The basic structure of the new test is similar to that of a widely used test for abrupt changes, the standard normal homogeneity test. The test for abrupt changes is found to remain unaltered after an important generalization.

  • 30.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Tuomenvirta, H
    Schmith, T
    Iden, K
    Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set2000Inngår i: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 14, nr 1, s. 71-73Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Within the WASA project (von Storch et al. 1998; Bull Am Meterol Soc 79(5):741-760) an extensive data set containing station pressure values was used to calculate geostrophic winds (Alexandersson et al. 1998; Global Atmos Ocean Syst 6:97-120). Geostrophic winds were analysed in terms of percentiles to give a measure of long-term variations in synoptic-scale storminess. In this paper an update to 1998 is presented. In the Scandinavia, Finland and Baltic Sea area the most recent years, especially the cold and calm year 1996, seem to have brought an end to the stormy period centred on 1990. In the more westerly British Isles, North Sea and Norwegian Sea area, storminess is still at high levels compared with the less intense period between 1930 and 1980. The long-term increasing trend in NW Europe storminess that started in the 1960s seems to have been broken.

  • 31.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Vedin, Haldo
    SMHI.
    Dimensionerande regn för mycket små avrinningsområden2003Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
  • 32. Alfieri, Lorenzo
    et al.
    Bisselink, Berny
    Dottori, Francesco
    Naumann, Gustavo
    de Roo, Ad
    Salamon, Peter
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Feyen, Luc
    Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world2017Inngår i: Earth's Future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 5, nr 2, s. 171-182Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 33. Alfredsson, L.
    et al.
    Segersson, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Hillert, J.
    Kockum, I.
    Strid, P.
    Olsson, T.
    Bellander, T.
    Hedstrom, A. K.
    Association Between Exposure to Combustion-Related Air Pollution and Multiple Sclerosis Risk2023Inngår i: Multiple Sclerosis Journal, ISSN 1352-4585, E-ISSN 1477-0970, Vol. 29, s. 99-99Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Association between exposure to combustion-related air pollution and multiple sclerosis risk
  • 34.
    Algotsson, Josefina
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Förslag till statusklassning av parameter 9.5 Sötvatteninflöde och vattenutbyte i kustvatten och vatten i övergångszon: En jämförelse mellan Kustzonsmodellens naturliga och normala uppsättning2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Omkring hälften av Sveriges elproduktion utgörs idag av vattenkraft vilken produceras i omkring 2000 kraftverk. Den största avrinningen av vatten från land sker under våren och vattnet lagras i magasin för elproduktion under vintern. Denna förändring av den naturliga avrinningen har stora effekter på de akvatiska ekosystemen och vara ett av de största miljöproblemen för svenska vattendrag och sjöar.Det saknas idag en vägledning för statusklassificering av hydromorfologiska parametrar i kustvatten enligt Vattendirektivet. SMHI fick i uppdrag av Vattenmyndigheterna att ta fram ett förslag till klassgränser och klassning för parameter 9.5 Sötvatteninflöde och vattenutbyte i kustvatten och vatten i övergångszon enligt Havs- och vattenmyndighetens föreskrifter HVMFS 2013:19. Den hydrologiska modellen S-HYPE och den oceanografiska Kustzonsmodellen användes för att studera de skillnader i färskvattentillförsel samt färskvatteninnehåll, salinitet och vattenålder i ytan som orsakas av reglering av vattenflödet på land.Baserat på resultaten har regleringen av vattenflödet på land överlag lett till en ökning av färskvatteninnehållet med 2 % längs Norrlandskusten och en motsvarande minskning av färskvatteninnehållet på västkusten. Typiskt leder regleringen av vatten på land till en lägre färskvattentillförsel till kusten under våren och sommaren och en högre färskvattentillförsel till kusten på hösten och vintern jämfört med ett scenario med en naturlig landavrinning.Den naturliga bakgrundsvariationen, enligt definitionen ± 2 MAD (Median Absolute Deviation), och den Maximala Absoluta Avvikelsen, MAA, användes för att konstruera 5 statusklasser. Denna metod gav upphov till att 98 % av kustvattenförekomsterna fick en Hög eller God status för parametrarna färskvattentillförsel och salinitet, 87 % av kustvattenförekomsterna fick en Hög eller God status för färskvatteninnehåll och 83 % av kustvattenförekomsterna fick en Hög eller God status för vattenålder.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 35.
    Algotsson, Josefina
    et al.
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Van Der Stelt, Frank
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Abdoush, Diala
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Swedish coastal water bodies on Wikidata Combining WFD data with Wikidata2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    In accordance with the Water Framework Directive, the water district authorities report environmental information on Sweden’s surface water bodies to the EU.Under the government commission Smartare miljöinformation to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Naturvårdsverket, the initiative was taken to adopt the reported environmental information on Sweden’s coastal water bodies to Wikidata and Wikipedia. SMHI has led the initiative with support from Wikimedia Sweden, the South Baltic Sea Water District Authority, the county administrative board of Jönköping and Wikimedia volunteers.The aim of this project has been to make the environmental information about Sweden’s coastal water bodies more accessible to the public, to disseminate knowledge about status classification and create conditions for increasing environmental awareness among the public. The project has resulted in:• 653 new coastal water bodies are described on Wikidata.• Wikipedia articles on water management in Sweden, coastal water bodies and the SVAR database have been created.• A template for infoboxes on Wikipedia has been developed and can automatically retrieve and display the status classification of coastal water bodies.• The template for infoboxes on coastal water bodies is used in articles on coastal waters on Wikipedia.• The license for the SVAR database is set to CC0, which facilitates the use of the information and opens the possibility of using it in more ways than before.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 36.
    Almroth, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Skogen, Morten
    Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway..
    Sehested Hansen, Ian
    Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway..
    Stipa, Tapani
    FMI.
    Niiranen, Susa
    FMI.
    The Year 2006 An Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak Kattegat and the Baltic Sea: A demonstration Project2008Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This is the third year joint status report for the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea area (Fig. 1) carried out by SMHI, IMR, DHI and FIMR as a part of the project BANSAI, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group. The aim of the demonstration project is to integrate marine observations and eutrophication model simulations in an annual eutrophication assessment of the Baltic and the North seas. The present report is mainly based on model estimates of some of the indicators suggested by the OSPAR Common Procedure (c.f. Appendix) for the identification of the eutrophication status of the maritime area (OSPAR, 2005). This report serve as a basis for the on-going discussions about the ecological quality indicators included in the assessment, and the way to merge results from different models and observations for the assessment.Estimations of river discharges and model results are used to describe the degree of nutrient enrichment (Category I) defined by the riverine loadings of nitrogen and phosphorus, and winter surface concentrations and ratios of DIN and DIP. The direct effects of nutrient enrichment during the growing season (Category II) are described in terms of the mean and maximum chlorophyll-a concentrations and model estimations of primary production. The ratio between diatoms and flagellates is used as an indicator of region specific phytoplankton indicator species (Category II). The indirect effects of nutrient enrichment (Category III) are discussed in terms of oxygen depletion in bottom waters. Estimations of region specific background concentrations and threshold values are gathered from the literature (Helcom, 2006; OSPAR, 2005) and used for the model assessment. The four model systems used for the joint assessment (Fig. 2) cover different parts of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea area. Detailed descriptions of the models may be found on the web-sites presented below the figure.In section 2 the key messages from this assessment will be presented. In section 3, each country gives a brief observations overview for 2006 and some references to other sources and reports that might be useful for the readers. The methods of the assessment are described in section 4. Statistical characteristics of model results and in-situ data are presented in section 5 and the model assessment of eutrophication status is done in section 6. Conclusions and comments to the assessment are presented in section 7.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 37.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Edman, Moa
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Sahlberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Modelling nutrient retention in the coastal zone of an eutrophic sea2016Inngår i: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 13, nr 20, s. 5753-5769Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 38.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hordoir, Robinson
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hall, Per O. J.
    Transport of fresh and resuspended particulate organic material in the Baltic Sea - a model study2011Inngår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 87, nr 1, s. 1-12Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A fully coupled high-resolution 3-dimensional biogeochemical-physical ocean model including an empirical wave model was used to investigate the long-term average (1970-2007) distributions and transports of resuspended matter and other types of suspended organic matter in the Baltic Sea. Modelled bottom types were compared to observations and the results showed that the model successfully managed to capture the horizontal, as well as the vertical, distribution of the different bottom types: accumulation, transport and erosion bottoms. The model also captured well the nutrient element contents in the sediments. On average the largest contribution of resuspended organic carbon to the transport of total organic carbon is found at erosion and transport bottoms. Although the relative transport of resuspended organic carbon at deeper accumulation bottoms in general is low (< 10% of total), the central parts of the sub-basins act on average as sinks that import organic matter while the more shallow areas and the coastal regions acts as sources of organic carbon in the water column. This indicates that the particulate organic matter produced in erosion and transport areas might be kept in suspension long enough to be transported and settle in less energetic areas, i.e. on accumulation bottoms. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 39.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    Hall, Per O. J.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea2015Inngår i: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 144, s. 127-141Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980-2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59 x 10(3) t P year(-1) and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60-150 m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43 x 10(3) t P year(-1). For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19 x 10(3) t P year(-1). In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7 x 10(3) t P year(-1). The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

  • 40.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Skogen, Morten D.
    A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment2010Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 39, nr 1, s. 59-69Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.

  • 41.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Skogen, Morten
    Sehested Hansen, Ian
    DHI Water and Environments.
    Stipa, Tapani
    University of Helsinki.
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University.
    The Year 2006 An Environmental Status report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea2007Inngår i: BANSAI- The Baltic and North Sea marine environmental modelling Asessment Initaiative / [ed] the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group, 2007Konferansepaper (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 42.
    Almroth-Rosell, Elin
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Wåhlstrom, Irene
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Hansson, Martin
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Vali, Germo
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Andersson, Pia
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Viktorsson, Lena
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arneborg, Lars
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    A Regime Shift Toward a More Anoxic Environment in a Eutrophic Sea in Northern Europe2021Inngår i: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 8, artikkel-id 799936Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    A Regime Shift Toward a More Anoxic Environment in a Eutrophic Sea in Northern Europe
  • 43.
    Alpfjord Wylde, Helene
    et al.
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Asker, Christian
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Bennet, Cecilia
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Segersson, David
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.
    Quantification of population exposure to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and estimated health impacts for 2019 and 20302023Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 have been calculated for the whole of Sweden for the year 2019 as well as two scenarios for 2030 in this study. Calculations have been performed using a new methodology, allowing almost seam-less combination of dispersion modelling at regional and urban scale without double-counting emissions. The concentrations have been calculated at 250x250 m2 resolution, producing a uniquely complete and detailed dataset at national scale. The  methodology used can well reproduce the measured pollution levels at most urban background stations in the modelling domain. The spatial resolution of 250 m captures concentration gradients that are of importance for exposure calculations. An important strength of using dispersion modelling to calculate concentrations is the direct relation with emission inventories, allowing for source attribution and scenario evaluation that is consistent with emission inventories and projections. 

    The modelled concentrations are used together with gridded population data in order to calculate exposure. The annual average population weighted exposure is 5.08 µg/m3 for NO2, 9.95 µg/m3 for PM10 and 5.21 µg/m3 for PM2.5 in 2019. A large decrease, by approximately 2 µg/m3, is seen for exposure to NO2 in 2030 compared to 2019. The exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 is also decreasing in 2030, but not as drastically, by about 0.2 µg/m3.   

    A general conclusion is that exposure is higher in the age span of 21-50 years. An explanation is that these age groups more often live in urban areas, where there are more emissions and higher concentrations of pollution.    

    Zero percent of the population is exposed to levels above the annual air quality standards for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 for 2019 and 2030.  It is to be noted that the model results represent annual averaged urban background concentrations, not local hotspot concentrations. 

    The modelled exposures to PM2.5 and urban NO2 have been used for a national health impact assessment. The health impact assessment is similar to an earlier study of premature deaths and incident cases of mainly chronic diseases. Our results differ to a varying degree from similar impact assessments. Most important among the complicated reasons for differences in the estimated health impacts are the assumed exposure-response functions for the specific exposures, the slope and if there is a lower threshold below which no association exists. We have in this study decided to follow the strong evidence from high quality epidemiological studies that the exposure-response relationship between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and total mortality in adults is supra-linear with a much steeper slope at the lower end, with stronger effects of near source exposure, and no evidence of a threshold level below which no effects are observed. When adding the yearly number of premature deaths attributed to the regional background PM2.5 levels and the deaths associated with PM2.5 exposure from local sources, the total number becomes 4 264 deaths related to the fine particle exposure situation in 2019. At the same time, the urban contribution of NO2 is estimated to result in additional 428 premature deaths per year. 

    In 2030 the population exposure to PM2.5 from the regional background is expected to be about 2% lower and from urban sources 22% lower compared to 2019, which indicates how much the attributed number of preterm deaths would change if everything else stays the same. 

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Quantification of population exposure to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and estimated health impacts for 2019 and 2030
  • 44.
    Alvarez, Elena Alabarces
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Klemm, Kerstin
    Hoppenrath, Mona
    Cembella, Allan
    John, Uwe
    Karlson, Bengt
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Temporal and spatial distribution of epibenthic dinoflagellates in the Kattegat-Skagerrak, NE Atlantic-Focus on Prorocentrum lima and Coolia monotis2022Inngår i: Harmful Algae, ISSN 1568-9883, E-ISSN 1878-1470, Vol. 118, artikkel-id 102318Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Temporal and spatial distribution of epibenthic dinoflagellates in the Kattegat-Skagerrak, NE Atlantic-Focus on Prorocentrum lima and Coolia monotis
  • 45. Amador, Jorge A.
    et al.
    Ambrizzi, Tercio
    Arritt, Raymond W.
    Castro, Christopher L.
    Cavazos, Tereza
    Cerezo-Mota, Ruth
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Guiliani, Graziano
    Lee, Huikyo
    Mendez-Perez, Matias
    Rivera, Erick R.
    Putting into action the REGCM4.6 regional climate model for the study of climate change, variability and modeling over Central America and Mexico2018Inngår i: Atmósfera, ISSN 0187-6236, Vol. 31, nr 2, s. 185-188Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 46. Amaguchi, H.
    et al.
    Kawamura, A.
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Takasaki, T.
    Development and testing of a distributed urban storm runoff event model with a vector-based catchment delineation2012Inngår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 420, s. 205-215Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The recent advances in GIS technology as well as data availability open up new possibilities concerning urban storm runoff modeling. In this paper, a vector-based distributed storm event runoff model - the Tokyo Storm Runoff (TSR) model - is developed and tested for urban runoff analysis using two historical storm events. The set-up of this model is based on urban landscape GIS delineation that faithfully describes the complicated urban land use features in detail. The flow between single spatial elements is based on established hydraulic and hydrological models with equations that describe all aspects of storm runoff generation in an urban environment. The model was set up and evaluated for the small urban lower Ekota catchment in Tokyo Metropolis, Japan. No calibration or tuning was performed, but the general model formulation was used with standard parameter values obtained from the literature. The runoff response to two storm events were simulated; one minor event resulting only in a small-scale flood wave and one major event which inundated parts of the catchment. For both events, the simulated water levels closely reproduced the observed ones. For the major event, also the reported inundation area was well described by the model. It was also demonstrated how the model can be used to evaluate the flow conditions in specific components of the urban hydrological system, which facilitates e.g. evaluation of flood-preventive measures. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 47.
    Ambjörn, Cecilia
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Förstudie av ett nordiskt modellsystem för kemikaliespridning i vatten1988Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    SMHI har fått i uppdrag att studera ett befintligt system för spridning av kemikalier i vatten. Studierna utförs med syfte att skapa ett för nordiska behov användbart prognossystem vid olyckstillbud.

    Främst studeras U. S. Coast Guards beräkningssystem HACS, Hazard Assessment Computer System. Det är uppbyggt utifrån behov av att veta huruvida vattenintag i floder behöver stängas vid ett giftutsläpp, fiskodlingar skyddas och när koncentrationen nått låga nivåer i hela området.

    HACS-modellerna för vatten är ingående analyserade. De som nu finns i ett fungerande prognossystem har studerats, men även nyutvecklade modeller som inte är anpassade för det befintliga prognossystemet har betraktats .Det kanadensiska systemet TIPS har studerats något, liksom en sammanställning över EG-ländernas modeller.

    HACS-systemet i sin nuvarande form är inte tillämpbart i öppet vatten eller i kust- och skärgårdsområden. Systemet är främst utvecklat för floder och kan därför inte användas i havet där dynamiken är helt annorlunda .Ett spridningsförlopp i en flod använder sig av konstant ström i tid och rum, konstant vind, begränsande väggar på sidorna, sötvatten och ganska lätt kontrollerbara processer. I havet är dynamiken betydligt mera komplicerad och komplex. Vågor , vädersystem, strömmar som varierar kraftigt mellan olika djup, horisontella strömvariationer som ändras inom några 100-tals meter, tre-dimensionella virvelsystem av olika storlekar, varierande bottendjup, tidsvariationer som sker inom några timmar, olika densiteter på skilda djup är några av de mest grundläggande skillnaderna . Enskilda förlopp inom HACS kan ändå användas, såsom tex beräkningen av ett flytande ämnes utspridning på vattenytan de första timmarna. Teoretiska delar kan tas ur programmen och manualerna och användas i nya system. Särskilt gäller den här möjligheten de nyare programmen inom HACS-systemet , där teorin är mera långtgående och omfattande.

    Citat U. S . Coast Guard. "HACS kan vara ett extremt kraftfullt verktyg, när det handhas av en specialist, som kan formulera ett problem till HACS korrekt och därefter tolka de erhållna resultaten. Samtidigt kan systemet oavsiktligt användas helt felaktigt om det appliceras på situationer som ej var menade för tillämpning. Det finns ingen automatisk metod att hindra felanvändning, utan användaren måste vara rimligt insatt i metodiken bakom modellerna ."

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  • 48.
    Ambjörn, Cecilia
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Isproppsförebyggande muddring och dess inverkan på strömmarna i Torneälven1992Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Bakgrund

    Muddring i Torneälvens mynningsområde studeras, som en möjlighet att minska risken för isproppsbildning och därmed risken för översvämning. Effekterna för strömmarna vid muddrad farled och en bruten isränna beräknas med en numerisk datormodell. Även effekterna av en muddrad grop i mynningen simuleras med modellen. Bedömning av förändrade sedimentationsmönster utförs liksom ändrad isproppsrisk.

    Endast mycket höga flöden betraktas, dvs 2 500 m3 /s och 3100 m3/s.

    Vid simuleringarna väljs en utbredning av havsisen, som man av erfarenhet vet förekommer då ispropp med översvämning inträffar. Likaså får isens tjocklek ett representativt värde, 80 cm. Olika vattenstånd i havet betraktas även.

    Beräkningsmodellen tar inte hänsyn till att vattnet tar en alternativ väg vid översvämning eller till effekterna av en ispropp. Det innebär att hastigheterna under isen blir för höga eftersom vattenmassor tvingas in under isen, som annars skulle svämma över landområden. Med dessa förenklingar erhålls en god uppfattning av de typiska effekter på strömmarna som de olika muddringsalternativen ger upphov till. Beräkningarna av strömmarna visar att hastigheterna i mynningen och huvudfåran är mycket höga; 2 - 4 m/ s.

    Strömförhållanden

    Muddrad farled

    Muddrad farled och bruten ränna medför att en betydligt större del av vattnet går genom rännan eftersom tvärsnittsytan ökar. Det medför att hastigheterna i hela övriga mynningsområdet minskar. På de grunda områdena på ömse sidor om farleden och norr om Selkäkari sker en kraftig minskning av hastigheterna. Vid lägre flöde och högre havsvattenstånd är den procentuella förändringen mindre.

    Muddrad grop

    En muddrad grop i mynningsområdet och samtidigt istäckt i havet innebär att i och omkring gropen erhålls lägre hastigheter i proportion till den ökade tvärsnittsytan.

    Ej islagd period

    Vid icke islagd tid medför den muddrade farleden att vattnet styrs till den muddrade rännan. Det blir något lägre hastigheter; 20 - 25 %, norr om Selkäkari. Hastigheterna på de grundare områdena på ömse sidor om rännan minskar något. Vid muddrad grop sker endast en hastighetssänkning vid gropen.

    Sedimentationsbedömningar

    Torneälvens mynningsområde domineras av sediment med mycket blandad kornstorlek, från silat till grus, och litet organiskt innehåll. Detta visar att mycket lite deposition och erosion förekommer (gäller relativt öppna vatten, inte grunda kanaler och vikar), De mindre mängder av grövre sediment (icke suspenderade) som älven för med sig deponeras strax efter att den mynnat, i beräkningsområdets norra del. Merparten av de sediment som älven för med sig deponeras söder om beräkningsområdet - i skärgården och havet därutanför.

    Muddrad ränna

    Detta muddringsalternativ leder till högre strömhastigheter än för nuvarande förhållanden i huvudströmfåran. Förhöjningen är dock så liten att det inte kommer leda till några erosionsproblem. Den lite starkare strömmen skulle hjälpa till att hålla rännan öppen (förutsatt att rännan ligger i linje med strömriktningen). Underhållsmuddring går dock inte att utesluta, som mest ungefär var 5 - 10 år.

    De minskade strömhastigheterna, i {åran norr om Selkäkari och Kraaseli skulle ha kunnat leda till depositionsproblem om det inte vore för att området är så grunt. Redan i dagens läge hålls sedimenten delvis i suspension av de vattenrörelser som vågor orsakar. Viss deposition, eller ökning av deposition, får man dock räkna med innanför Selkäkari - i värsta fall uppåt en centimeter per år.

    En följd, om än knappt märkbar vad gäller sedimentation, är att mer vatten följer huvudströmfåran om man muddrar en ränna, och då kommer mer suspenderat material föras ut i skärgården än tidigare.

    Lokal muddring

    Eftersom strömmarna bara förändras där den lokala muddringen eventuellt sker, kommer med stor sannolikhet ingen förändrad sedimentation ske i resten av mynningsområdet. De minskade strömhastigheterna i det lokala muddringsområdet kan tänkas leda till en ökad deposition av grövre sediment (sand/ grus). Det mesta av detta grövre material kommer dock liksom i nuvarande fall att fällas ut på bottnarna söder och sydväst därom, där strömhastigheterna avtar ordentligt. Den lokala muddringen sker i anslutning till två redan existerande "djuphål" (en och ett par meter djupare än omgivningen) som tydligen inte visar tendenser att fyllas igen. På grund av att sedimentationstakten på platsen är låg/ingen, att strömmarna trots muddring ändå kommer vara relativt höga, att strömmarna inte avtar ordentligt förrän söder om den tänkta lokala muddringen, och eftersom det redan finns fördjupningar, är det sannolikt att det muddrade hålet inte fylls i alls, ·. eller i långsam takt. Som mest kan underhållsmuddring uppskattningsvis behöva utföras var tionde år.

    lsproppsbedömning

    Vid muddrad farled och bruten isränna kan risk finnas för ispropp i rännan, speciellt där den byter riktning. Ispropp kan även bildas i isrännans öppning mot floden genom att isflak fastnar på de grundare områdena och successivt böjer av in mot rännan och sedan täpper igen denna. Muddrad grop ger lägre strömhastigheter i gropen vilket medför att isens vertikala utsträckning går något långsammare (på grund av lägre tryck) och den horisontella utbredningen ökar något. Båda muddringsförslagen bidrar var för sig till minskad risk för isproppsbildning.

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  • 49.
    Ambjörn, Cecilia
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Oceanografiska förhållanden i Brofjorden i samband med kylvattenutsläpp i Trommekilen1989Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vattenfall har för avsikt att lokalisera en restoljeförgasningsanläggning intill Scanraff i Brofjorden. SMHI har därför fått i uppdrag att utföra en utredning avseende de oceanografiska förhållandena i området.

    Anläggningen behöver kylvatten som tas in på cirka 15 meters djup i Trommekilen via en tub om 1.2 meter i diameter. Se kartan i figur 1. Därefter planeras det uppvärmda vattnet att ledas ut som ytvatten via en muddrad ränna. Kylvattenmängden är cirka 7.5 m3/s och temperaturstegringen genom processen är cirka 10°c .

    Studien behandlar dessutom ett ytintag i Trommekilen och utsläpp i Brofjordens mynning med hastigheten 1.5 m/s.

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  • 50.
    Ambjörn, Cecilia
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Oceanografiska förhållanden utanför Vendelsöfjorden i samband med kylvattenutsläpp1990Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vattenfall planerar ett naturgaseldat kraftverk utanför Vendelsöfjorden. Det är tänkt att anläggningen ska producera maximalt 700 MW och släppa ut 10 m3 kylvatten per sekund, som är uppvärmt 10 °c. Kylvattnet planeras att tas in nära bottnen och släppas ut i ytan.

    Strömmarna, i området mellan Vendelsöfjorden och den öppna kusten, är riktade in mot Vendelsöfjorden under 10 procent av tiden. En inåtgående ström, med en samtidig 1-2 km bred utåtgående ström intill kusten, råder under 30 procent av tiden. Vid resterande tillfällen är strömmen varierande eller sydgående.

    Den vertikala densitetsskiktningen är dominerad av salthaltens ökning från ytan och neråt. Skiktningen kan vara mycket kraftig med 14 promilles salthalt i ytan och 34 promille vid botten. Samma salthalt kan också förekomma i hela vattenmassan, då ligger värdena ofta mellan 18 och 21 promille.

    På sommaren förstärks densitetsskiktningen av att ytvattnet värms upp snabbare än bottenvattnet. Samma temperatur kan även råda ända ner till bottnen, eftersom här är grunt. Temperaturförändringen finns då på större djup, längre ut från kusten. Under november - mars kan det vara några grader varmare på 15 meters djup än i ytan.

    Om kylvattnet tas in nära botten på 15-17 meters djup och släpps ut i ytan kommer det att vara tyngre än sin omgivning under stor del av året. Vid de tillfällen när kylvattnet är lättare eller endast obetydligt tyngre än ytvattnet blandas det in i ytan mellan cirka O och 3 m djup, därmed blir den horisontella spridningen effektiv. Avdunstning, vind och vågor gör att övertemperaturen blir lägst vid spridning i ytan. När salthalten vid bottenintaget är hög blir kylvattnet betydligt tyngre än det omgivande ytvattnet. Det sjunker då ner till en nivå ovanför salthaltssprångskiktet, som ligger på 10-15 meters djup. Här ligger kylvattnet relativt koncentrerat, ty den vertikala blandningen är begränsad av vattnets skiktning.

    Kylvattnet från Ringhals kan, så här långt från källan, ha högst 1-2 °c övertemperatur i ett ytnära skikt. Detta kylvatten går norrut cirka 4 gånger av 10. Vid dessa tillfällen har kylvattnet från det planerade kraftverket antingen sjunkit ner i vattenmassorna och lagt sig på 5-10 meters djup eller så ligger det nära ytan. När strömmen går in mot Vendelsöfjorden och därmed mot nordost i hela området, vilket händer 1 gång av 10, ökar den sammanlagda ytan för l0 oc övertemperatur.

    Vid inåtgående ström längre ut och en sydvästgående smalare ström nära kusten, vilket inträffar 3 gånger av 10, kan en viss förstärkt effekt erhållas där kylvattenplymerna möts, sydväst om det planerade läget . Vid cirka hälften av dessa tillfällen ligger kylvattnet från båda kraftverken i ytan. Detta betyder i praktiken 15 procent av tiden.

    Lämpligt läge för kylvattenutsläppet är därför utefter en linje vinkelrätt ut från kusten. Läggs utsläppet nära kusten kan det under 15 % av tiden samverka i ytan med utsläppet från Ringhals. Aktuella övertemperaturer är högst 1-2 °c. Vid en placering cirka 2 km ut från kusten kommer det under 20 % av tiden att bli en förlängning av plymen från Ringhals.

    Avgörande för en snabb utspädning är den hastighet med vilken kylvattnet förs ut i havet. Lämpliga hastigheter kan vara 1 . 0-2 . 0 m/s.

    Vid sydgående ström samtidigt som kylvattnet från det planerade läget lägger sig i ytan, kan en mindre temperaturförhöjning erhållas vid intaget för Ringhals kylvatten.

    Kännedomen om vattenutbytet är begränsad. Vid svaga strömmar som skiftar riktning 1 gång per dygn eller oftare sker en viss ansamling av kylvatten i närområdet. Vid ström in mot Vendelsöfjorden kan högst 3-4 graders temperaturhöjning ske på de större djupen inne i fjorden alternativt maximalt 2 graders höjning från ytan till botten i hela fjorden. Ovanstående gäller vid sjunkande kylvatten.

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