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  • 1.
    Andersson, Jafet
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Ali, Abdou
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Minoungou, Bernard
    Providing peak river flow statistics and forecasting in the Niger River basin2017In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 100, p. 3-12Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2. Eneroth, K
    et al.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Holmen, K
    A trajectory climatology for Svalbard; investigating how atmospheric flow patterns influence observed tracer concentrations2003In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 28, no 28-32, p. 1191-1203Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A 10-year climatology of long-range atmospheric transport to Ny-(A) over circle lesund, Svalbard (78.9degreesN, 11.9degreesE) is developed using three-dimensional 5-day back-trajectories. We calculate trajectories arriving twice daily at 950, 850 and 750 hPa during 1992-2001, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyzed wind, fields. Cluster analysis is used to classify the trajectories into distinct transport patterns. The clustering procedure is performed on the whole 10-year set of trajectories, to study both year-to-year and mouth-to-mouth variability in the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. We identify eight major transport patterns to Ny-(A) over circle lesund, which we find to be consistent with mean-pressure charts of the Arctic region. The distribution of trajectories between these flows is similar for all years during the 10-year period. However, there are seasonal differences in when different clusters are most prevalent. The calculated clusters provide an indication of source regions and transport pathways influencing Svalbard at different times of the year. Such information is valuable for interpreting measured time-series of trace gases and aerosols and could serve as guidance for formulating sampling strategies. We compare the trajectory clusters to CO2 measurements to study to what degree different atmospheric flow patterns influence the variability of the atmospheric CO2. Overall we see a linkage between CO2 concentration and the large-scale circulation. For instance, in connection with transport over Europe and Siberia during winter, high CO2 mixing ratios are observed, whereas trajectories originating from the Atlantic are associated with low CO2 concentrations. However, during some periods and for some individual trajectories we see no conclusive linkage between variability in atmospheric CO2 and transport. This can be due to a combination of the complex structure Of CO2 sources and sinks and its relatively long atmospheric turn-over time. CO2 and Rn-222 mixing ratios are calculated using the three-dimensional transport model MATCH to further illustrate these characteristics of CO2. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 3.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Andersson, Lotta
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Horan, Mark
    Kunz, Richard
    Lumsden, Trevor
    Schulze, Roland
    Warburton, Michele
    Wilk, Julie
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa2011In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 36, no 14-15, p. 727-735Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 4. Zampieri, M.
    et al.
    Giorgi, F.
    Lionello, P.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Regional climate change in the Northern Adriatic2012In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 40-41, p. 32-46Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An analysis of the climate change signal for seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Northern Adriatic region is presented here. We collected 43 regional climate simulations covering the target area, including experiments produced in the context of the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects, and additional experiments produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The ability of the models to simulate the present climate in terms of mean and interannual variability is discussed and the insufficient reproduction of some features, such as the intensity of summer precipitation, are shown. The contribution to the variance associated with the intermodel spread is computed. The changes of mean and interannual variability are analyzed for the period 2071-2100 in the PRUDENCE runs (A2 scenario) and the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (A1B scenario) for the other runs. Ensemble results show a major warming at the end of the 21st century. Warming will be larger in the A2 scenario (about 5.5 K in summer and 4 K in winter) than in the A1B. Precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer by 20% (+0.5 mm/day and -1 mm/day over the Alps, respectively). The climate change signal for scenario A1B in the period 2021-2050 is significant for temperature, but not yet for precipitation. In summer, interannual variability is projected to increase for temperature and for precipitation. Winter interannual variability change is different among scenarios. A reduction of precipitation is found for A2, while for A1B a reduction of temperature interannual variability is observed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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