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  • 1. Bal, S.
    et al.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Spangehl, T.
    Cubasch, U.
    On the robustness of the solar cycle signal in the Pacific region2011In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 38, article id L14809Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The potential role of the stratosphere for the 11-year solar cycle signal in the Pacific region is investigated by idealized simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The model includes a detailed representation of the stratosphere and accounts for changes in stratospheric heating rates from prescribed time dependent variations of ozone and spectrally high resolved solar irradiance. Three transient simulations are performed spanning 21 solar cycles each. The simulations use slightly different ozone perturbations representing uncertainties of solar induced ozone variations. The model reproduces the main features of the 20th century observed solar response. A persistent mean sea level pressure response to solar forcing is found for the eastern North Pacific extending over North America. Moreover, there is evidence for a La Nina-like response assigned to solar maximum conditions with below normal SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific, reduced equatorial precipitation, enhanced off-equatorial precipitation and an El Nino-like response a couple of years later, thus confirming the response to solar forcing at the surface seen in earlier studies. The amplitude of the solar signal in the Pacific region depends to a great extent on the choice of the centennial period averaged. Citation: Bal, S., S. Schimanke, T. Spangehl, and U. Cubasch (2011), On the robustness of the solar cycle signal in the Pacific region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14809, doi:10.1029/2011GL047964.

  • 2. Boergel, Florian
    et al.
    Frauen, Claudia
    Neumann, Thomas
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Baltic Sea Variability2018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 18, p. 9880-9888Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 3.
    Bärring, Lars
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    von Storch, H
    Scandinavian storminess since about 18002004In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 31, no 20, article id L20202Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the history of storminess in Northern Europe, as derived from local pressure observations in Lund since 1780 and Stockholm since 1820 ( Sweden). At both stations barometer readings were made three times per day, morning, midday and evening, and after about 1850 at fixed observation hours. We use four common storminess indices: annual number of deep lows ( p < 980 hPa), the annual 95th and 99th percentile of pressure changes between two observations, and the annual number of fast absolute pressure changes (\&UDelta;p\/&UDelta;t > 16 hPa/12 h). It turns out that the 1980' s - mid 1990' s were a period of enhanced storminess, mainly seen in the Stockholm record, but his period is within the natural variability of the records. Thus, there are no robust signs of any long-term trend in the storminess indices. Storminess is during the entire historical period remarkably stable, with no systematic change and little transient variability.

  • 4. Chen, Hans W.
    et al.
    Zhang, Qiong
    Körnich, Heiner
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Chen, Deliang
    A robust mode of climate variability in the Arctic: The Barents Oscillation2013In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, no 11, p. 2856-2861Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Barents Oscillation (BO) is an anomalous wintertime atmospheric circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere that has been linked to the meridional flow over the Nordic Seas. There are speculations that the BO has important implications for the Arctic climate; however, it has also been suggested that the pattern is an artifact of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis due to an eastward shift of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). In this study, EOF analyses are performed to show that a robust pattern resembling the BO can be found during different time periods, even when the AO/NAO is relatively stationary. This BO has a high and stable temporal correlation with the geostrophic zonal wind over the Barents Sea, while the contribution from the AO/NAO is small. The surface air temperature anomalies over the Barents Sea are closely associated with this mode of climate variability.

  • 5. Christensen, J H
    et al.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Iversen, T
    Bjorge, D
    Christensen, O B
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - A Scandinavian perspective2001In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 28, no 6, p. 1003-1006Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Four downscaling experiments of regional climate change for the Nordic countries have been conducted with three different regional climate models (RCMs). A short synthesis of the outcome of the suite of experiments is presented as an ensemble, reflecting the different driving atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) conditions, RCM model resolution and domain size, and choice of emission scenarios. This allows the sources of uncertainties in the projections to be assessed. At the same time analysis of the climate change signal for temperature and precipitation over the period 1990-2050 reveals strong similarities. In particular, all experiments in the suite simulate changes in the precipitation distribution towards a higher frequency of heavy precipitation.

  • 6.
    Eilola, Kari
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Martensson, S.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry2013In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, no 1, p. 149-154Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In a warming future climate, the sea ice cover is expected to decrease, with very likely large consequences for the marine ecosystem. We investigated the impact of future sea ice retreat on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the century, using an ensemble of regionalized global climate simulations. We found that the spring bloom will start by up to one month earlier and winds and wave-induced resuspension will increase, causing an increased transport of nutrients from the productive coastal zone into the deeper areas. The internal nutrient fluxes do not necessarily increase because they also depend on oxygen and temperature conditions of the bottom water. Winter mixing increases in areas having reduced ice cover and in areas having reduced stratification due to increased freshwater supply. The reduced sea ice cover therefore partly counteracts eutrophication because increased vertical mixing improves oxygen conditions in lower layers. Citation: Eilola, K., S. Martensson, and H. E. M. Meier (2013), Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 149-154, doi:10.1029/2012GL054375.

  • 7. Gleeson, Tom
    et al.
    Marklund, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Smith, Leslie
    Manning, Andrew H.
    Classifying the water table at regional to continental scales2011In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 38, article id L05401Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Water tables at regional to continental scales can be classified into two distinct types: recharge-controlled water tables that are largely disconnected from topography and topography-controlled water tables that are closely tied to topography. We use geomatic synthesis of hydrologic, geologic and topographic data sets to quantify and map water-table type over the contiguous United States using a dimensionless criterion introduced by Haitjema and Mitchell-Bruker (2005), called the water-table ratio, which differentiates water-table type. Our analysis indicates that specific regions of the United States have broadly contiguous and characteristic water-table types. Water-table ratio relates to water-table depth and the potential for regional groundwater flow. In regions with recharge-controlled water tables, for example the Southwest or Rocky Mountains, USA, water-tables depths are generally greater and more variable and regional groundwater flow is generally more important as a percentage of the watershed budget. Water-table depths are generally shallow and less variable, and regional groundwater flow is limited in areas with topography-controlled water tables such as the Northeast USA. The water-table ratio is a simple but powerful criterion for evaluating regional groundwater systems over broad areas. Citation: Gleeson, T., L. Marklund, L. Smith, and A. H. Manning (2011), Classifying the water table at regional to continental scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05401, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046427.

  • 8. Haerter, Jan O.
    et al.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Moseley, Christopher
    Precipitation onset as the temporal reference in convective self-organization2017In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 44, no 12, p. 6450-6459Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9. Haerter, Jan O.
    et al.
    Eggert, Bastian
    Moseley, Christopher
    Piani, Claudio
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Statistical precipitation bias correction of gridded model data using point measurements2015In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 42, no 6, p. 1919-1929Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is well known that climate model output data cannot be used directly as input to impact models, e.g., hydrology models, due to climate model errors. Recently, it has become customary to apply statistical bias correction to achieve better statistical correspondence to observational data. As climate model output should be interpreted as the space-time average over a given model grid box and output time step, the status quo in bias correction is to employ matching gridded observational data to yield optimal results. Here we show that when gridded observational data are not available, statistical bias correction can be carried out using point measurements, e.g., rain gauges. Our nonparametric method, which we call scale-adapted statistical bias correction (SABC), is achieved by data aggregation of either the available modeled or gauge data. SABC is a straightforward application of the well-known Taylor hypothesis of frozen turbulence. Using climate model and rain gauge data, we show that SABC performs significantly better than equal-time period statistical bias correction.

  • 10. Hazeleger, W.
    et al.
    Guemas, V.
    Wouters, B.
    Corti, S.
    Andreu-Burillo, I.
    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies2013In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, no 9, p. 1794-1798Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multiyear climate predictions with two initialization strategies are systematically assessed in the EC-Earth V2.3 climate model. In one ensemble, an estimate of the observed climate state is used to initialize the model. The other uses estimates of observed ocean and sea ice anomalies on top of the model climatology. The ensembles show similar spatial characteristics of drift related to the biases in control simulations. As expected, the drift is less with anomaly initialization. The full field initialization overshoots to a colder state which is related to cold biases in the tropics and North Atlantic, associated with oceanic processes. Despite different amplitude of the drift, both ensembles show similar skill in multiyear global temperature predictions, but regionally differences are found. On multiyear time scales, initialization with observations enhances both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores in the North Atlantic. The probabilistic verification shows skill over the European continent.

  • 11.
    Johansson, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Ekman, Nnica M. L.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    L'Ecuye, Ristan
    How Does Cloud Overlap Affect the Radiative Heating in the Tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere?2019In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 46, no 10, p. 5623-5631Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Johansson, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    L'Ecuyer, Tristan
    Response of the lower troposphere to moisture intrusions into the Arctic2017In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 44, no 5, p. 2527-2536Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Krysell, Mikael
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    FOGELQVIST, E
    TANHUA, T
    APPARENT REMOVAL OF THE TRANSIENT TRACER CARBON-TETRACHLORIDE FROM ANOXIC SEAWATER1994In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 21, no 23, p. 2511-2514Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Two chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and carbon tetrachloride, CCl4) widely used as tracers for dating water masses, were measured in the Gotland Basin of the Baltic Sea. At the time of the survey, the bottom water of the basin had remained stagnant for 15 years and anoxic for about the same period of time, and the concentrations of both CFC-11 and CCl4 decrease dramatically with depth below the mixed layer. Furthermore, the ratio of CFC-11 to CCl4 increases with depth under the mixed layer along with a steep decrease in oxygen concentration. This is contrary to what would be expected from the atmospheric histories. The most plausible explanation for this is that there is a mechanism whereby the CCl4 is removed from the water mass under anoxic and suboxic conditions.

  • 14. MacDonald, Matthew K.
    et al.
    Stadnyk, Tricia A.
    Dery, Stephen J.
    Braun, Marco
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Isberg, Kristina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming on Pan-Arctic River Discharge Into the Hudson Bay Complex Through 20702018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 15, p. 7561-7570Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Andersson, H. C.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Gustafsson, B. G.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Muller-Karulis, B.
    Neumann, T.
    Savchuk, O. P.
    Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea2011In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 38, article id L24608Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using an ensemble of coupled physical-biogeochemical models driven with regionalized data from global climate simulations we are able to quantify the influence of changing climate upon oxygen conditions in one of the numerous coastal seas (the Baltic Sea) that suffers worldwide from eutrophication and from expanding hypoxic zones. Applying various nutrient load scenarios we show that under the impact of warming climate hypoxic and anoxic areas will very likely increase or at best only slightly decrease (in case of optimistic nutrient load reductions) compared to present conditions, regardless of the used global model and climate scenario. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by (1) enlarged nutrient loads due to increased runoff, (2) reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the ocean due to increased temperature, and (3) intensified internal nutrient cycling. In future climate a similar expansion of hypoxia as projected for the Baltic Sea can be expected also for other coastal oceans worldwide. Citation: Meier, H. E. M., H. C. Andersson, K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafsson, I. Kuznetsov, B. Muller-Karulis, T. Neumann, and O. P. Savchuk (2011), Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L24608, doi:10.1029/2011GL049929.

  • 16.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century2006In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 33, no 15, article id L15705Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the uncertainty of projected precipitation and wind changes in regional climate change scenario simulations over Europe for the late 21st century is large, we applied a multi-model ensemble approach using 16 scenario simulations based upon seven regional models, five global models, and two emission scenarios to gain confidence in projected salinity changes in the Baltic Sea. In the dynamical downscaling approach a regional ocean circulation model and a large-scale hydrological model for the entire Baltic Sea catchment area were used. Despite the uncertainties, mainly caused by global model biases, salinity changes in all projections are either negative or not statistically significant in terms of natural variability.

  • 17. Naumann, G.
    et al.
    Alfieri, L.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Mentaschi, L.
    Betts, R. A.
    Carrao, H.
    Spinoni, J.
    Vogt, J.
    Feyen, L.
    Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming2018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 7, p. 3285-3296Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 18. Ogawa, Fumiaki
    et al.
    Keenlyside, Noel
    Gao, Yongqi
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, Shuting
    Suo, Lingling
    Wang, Tao
    Gastineau, Guillaume
    Nakamura, Tetsu
    Cheung, Ho Nam
    Omrani, Nour-Eddine
    Ukita, Jinro
    Semenov, Vladimir
    Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change2018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 7, p. 3255-3263Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Clouds, warm air, and a climate cooling signal over the summer Arctic2017In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 44, no 2, p. 1095-1103Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20. Smith, D. M.
    et al.
    Scaife, A. A.
    Hawkins, E.
    Bilbao, R.
    Boer, G. J.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Caron, L. -P
    Danabasoglu, G.
    Delworth, T.
    Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Dunstone, N. J.
    Eade, R.
    Hermanson, L.
    Ishii, M.
    Kharin, V.
    Kimoto, M.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kushnir, Y.
    Matei, D.
    Meehl, G. A.
    Menegoz, M.
    Merryfield, W. J.
    Mochizuki, T.
    Mueller, W. A.
    Pohlmann, H.
    Power, S.
    Rixen, M.
    Sospedra-Alfonso, R.
    Tuma, M.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, X.
    Yeager, S.
    Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 degrees C2018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 21, p. 11895-11903Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 21. Taylor, Christopher M.
    et al.
    Birch, Cathryn E.
    Parker, Douglas J.
    Dixon, Nick
    Guichard, Francoise
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lister, Grenville M. S.
    Modeling soil moisture-precipitation feedback in the Sahel: Importance of spatial scale versus convective parameterization2013In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, no 23, p. 6213-6218Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Feedback between soil moisture and precipitation influence climate variability in semiarid regions. However, serious concerns exist about the ability of coarse-scale global atmospheric models to depict one key aspect of the feedback loop, namely the sensitivity of daytime convection to soil moisture. Here we compare regional simulations using a single model, run at different spatial resolutions, and with convective parameterizations switched on or off against Sahelian observations. Convection-permitting simulations at 4 and 12 km capture the observed relationships between soil moisture and convective triggering, emphasizing the importance of surface-driven mesoscale dynamics. However, with the inclusion of the convection scheme at 12 km, the behavior of the model fundamentally alters, switching from negative to positive feedback. Similar positive feedback is found in 9 out of 10 Regional Climate Models run at 50 km. These results raise questions about the accuracy of the feedback in regional models based on current convective parameterizations.

  • 22.
    Thomas, Manu
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    The Relation Between Aerosol Vertical Distribution and Temperature Inversions in the Arctic in Winter and Spring2019In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 46, no 5, p. 2836-2845Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 23. Vautard, R.
    et al.
    Van Loon, M.
    Schaap, M.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bessagnet, B.
    Brandt, J.
    Builtjes, P. J. H.
    Christensen, J. H.
    Cuvelier, C.
    Graff, A.
    Jonson, J. E.
    Krol, M.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Roberts, P.
    Rouil, L.
    Stern, R.
    Tarrason, L.
    Thunis, P.
    Vignati, E.
    White, L.
    Wind, P.
    Is regional air quality model diversity representative of uncertainty for ozone simulation?2006In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 33, no 24, article id L24818Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine whether seven state-of-the-art European regional air quality models provide daily ensembles of predicted ozone maxima that encompass observations. Using tools borrowed from the evaluation of ensemble weather forecasting, we analyze statistics of simulated ensembles of ozone daily maxima over an entire summer season. Although the model ensemble overestimates ozone, the distribution of simulated concentrations is representative of the uncertainty. The spread of simulations is due to random fluctuations resulting from differences in model formulations and input data, but also to the spread between individual model systematic biases. The ensemble average skill increases as the spread decreases. The skill of the ensemble in giving probabilistic predictions of threshold exceedances is also demonstrated. These results allow for optimism about the ability of this ensemble to simulate the uncertainty of the impact of emission control scenarios.

  • 24. Zhang, W.
    et al.
    Miller, P. A.
    Jansson, C.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Mao, J.
    Smith, B.
    Self-Amplifying Feedbacks Accelerate Greening and Warming of the Arctic2018In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 14, p. 7102-7111Article in journal (Refereed)
1 - 24 of 24
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