Change search
Refine search result
1 - 33 of 33
CiteExportLink to result list
Permanent link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Rows per page
  • 5
  • 10
  • 20
  • 50
  • 100
  • 250
Sort
  • Standard (Relevance)
  • Author A-Ö
  • Author Ö-A
  • Title A-Ö
  • Title Ö-A
  • Publication type A-Ö
  • Publication type Ö-A
  • Issued (Oldest first)
  • Issued (Newest first)
  • Created (Oldest first)
  • Created (Newest first)
  • Last updated (Oldest first)
  • Last updated (Newest first)
  • Disputation date (earliest first)
  • Disputation date (latest first)
  • Standard (Relevance)
  • Author A-Ö
  • Author Ö-A
  • Title A-Ö
  • Title Ö-A
  • Publication type A-Ö
  • Publication type Ö-A
  • Issued (Oldest first)
  • Issued (Newest first)
  • Created (Oldest first)
  • Created (Newest first)
  • Last updated (Oldest first)
  • Last updated (Newest first)
  • Disputation date (earliest first)
  • Disputation date (latest first)
Select
The maximal number of hits you can export is 250. When you want to export more records please use the Create feeds function.
  • 1. Christensen, Jens H.
    et al.
    Carter, Timothy R.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Amanatidis, Georgios
    Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 1-6Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting coordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design of the model simulations and analyses of climate model perfort-natice, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme weather events and (7) implications of the results for policy. A paper summarising the related MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project is also included. The second part of the issue contains 12 articles that focus in more detail on some of the themes summarised in the overarching papers. The PRUDENCE results represent the first comprehensive, continental-scale intercomparison and evaluation of high resolution climate models and their applications, bringing together climate modelling, impact research and social sciences expertise on climate change.

  • 2. Deandreis, Celine
    et al.
    Page, Christian
    Braconnot, Pascale
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bucchignani, Edoardo
    de Cerff, Wim Som
    Hutjes, Ronald
    Joussaume, Sylvie
    Mares, Constantin
    Planton, Serge
    Plieger, Maarten
    Towards a dedicated impact portal to bridge the gap between the impact and climate communities: Lessons from use cases2014In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 125, no 3-4, p. 333-347Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Future climate evolution is of primary importance for the societal, economical, political orientations and decision-making. It explains the increasing use of climate projections as input for quantitative impact studies, assessing vulnerability and defining adaptation strategies in different sectors. Here we analyse 17 national and representative use cases so as to identify the diversity of the demand for climate information depending on user profiles as well as the best practices, methods and tools that are needed to answer the different requests. A particular emphasis is put on the workflow that allows to translate climate data into suitable impact data, the way to deal with the different sources of uncertainty and to provide a suited product to users. We identified three complementary tools to close the gap between climate scientists and user needs: an efficient interface between users and providers; an optimized methodology to handle user requests and a portal to facilitate access to data and elaborated products. We detail in the paper how these three tools can limit the intervention of experts, educate users, and lead to the production of useful information. This work provides the basis on which the ENES (European Network for Earth System Modelling) Portal Interface for the Climate Impact Communities is built.

  • 3. Deque, M.
    et al.
    Rowell, D. P.
    Luethi, D.
    Giorgi, F.
    Christensen, J. H.
    Rockel, B.
    Jacob, D.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    de Castro, M.
    van den Hurk, B.
    An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 53-70Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071 2100and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.

  • 4.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Greuell, Wouter
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gerten, Dieter
    Pisacane, Giovanna
    Roudier, Philippe
    Ludwig, Fulco
    Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 143, no 1-2, p. 13-26Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Greuell, Wouter
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gerten, Dieter
    Pisacane, Giovanna
    Roudier, Philippe
    Ludwig, Fulco
    Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level (vol 143, pg 13, 2017)2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 143, no 3-4, p. 535-535Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Dahne, Joel
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate2014In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 122, no 1-2, p. 157-170Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing two high emissions scenarios. The biases in precipitation and temperature adherent to climate models were adjusted using a Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) approach. As well as the climate projection uncertainty, this study considers uncertainties in the bias-correction and hydrological modelling. While the results indicate that the cumulative discharge to the Baltic Sea for 2071 to 2100, as compared to 1971 to 2000, is likely to increase, the uncertainties quantified from the hydrological model and the bias-correction method show that even with a state-of-the-art methodology, the combined uncertainties from the climate model, bias-correction and impact model make it difficult to draw conclusions about the magnitude of change. It is therefore urged that as well as climate model and scenario uncertainty, the uncertainties in the bias-correction methodology and the impact model are also taken into account when conducting climate change impact studies.

  • 7. Eisner, S.
    et al.
    Floerke, M.
    Chamorro, A.
    Daggupati, P.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Huang, J.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Koch, H.
    Kalugin, A.
    Krylenko, I.
    Mishra, V.
    Piniewski, M.
    Samaniego, L.
    Seidou, O.
    Wallner, M.
    Krysanova, V.
    An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 401-417Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 8. Gelfan, Alexander
    et al.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Motovilov, Yury
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kalugin, Andrey
    Krylenko, Inna
    Lavrenov, Alexander
    Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 499-515Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9. Gelfan, Alexander
    et al.
    Gustafsson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Motovilov, Yury
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kalugin,, Andrey
    Krylenko,, Inna
    Lavrenov, Alexander
    Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, p. 1-17Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10. Gosling, S. N
    et al.
    Zaherpour, J.
    Mount, N.
    Hattermann, F. F.
    Dankers, R.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Breuer, L.
    Ding, J.
    Haddeland, I.
    Kumar, R.
    Kundu, D.
    Liu, J.
    van Griensven, A.
    Veldkamp, T.I.E.
    Vetter, T.
    Wang, X.
    Zhan, X.
    A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 11. Gosling, Simon N.
    et al.
    Zaherpour, Jamal
    Mount, Nick J.
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Dankers, Rutger
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Breuer, Lutz
    Ding, Jie
    Haddeland, Ingjerd
    Kumar, Rohini
    Kundu, Dipangkar
    Liu, Junguo
    van Griensven, Ann
    Veldkamp, Ted I. E.
    Vetter, Tobias
    Wang, Xiaoyan
    Zhang, Xinxin
    A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C (vol 141, pg 577, 2017)2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 597-598Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Andreasson, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 293-307Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in laydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.

  • 13.
    Graham, Phil
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Jaun, Simon
    Beniston, Martin
    On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 97-122Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage areas to the Baltic Basin, the Botlinian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin. A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for downscaling.

  • 14. Hanson, C. E.
    et al.
    Palutikof, J. P.
    Livermore, M. T. J.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bindi, M.
    Corte-Real, J.
    Durao, R.
    Giannakopoulos, C.
    Good, P.
    Holt, T.
    Kundzewicz, Z.
    Leckebusch, G. C.
    Moriondo, M.
    Radziejewski, M.
    Santos, J.
    Schlyter, P.
    Schwarb, M.
    Stjernquist, I.
    Ulbrich, U.
    Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 163-177Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 15. Hattermann, F. F.
    et al.
    Krysanova, V.
    Gosling, S. N.
    Dankers, R.
    Daggupati, P.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Floerke, M.
    Huang, S.
    Motovilov, Y.
    Buda, S.
    Yang, T.
    Mueller, C.
    Leng, G.
    Tang, Q.
    Portmann, F. T.
    Hagemann, S.
    Gerten, D.
    Wada, Y.
    Masaki, Y.
    Alemayehu, T.
    Satoh, Y.
    Samaniego, L.
    Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 561-576Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16. Heino, R
    et al.
    Brazdil, R
    Forland, E
    Tuomenvirta, H
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Beniston, M
    Pfister, C
    Rebetez, M
    Rosenhagen, G
    Rosner, S
    Wibig, J
    Progress in the study of climatic extremes in northern and central Europe1999In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 42, no 1, p. 151-181Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A study of the long-term changes of various climatic extremes was made jointly by a number of European countries. It was found that the changes in maximum and minimum temperatures follow, in broad terms, the corresponding well-documented mean temperature changes. Minimum temperatures, however, have increased slightly more than maximum temperatures, although both have increased. As a result, the study confirms that the diurnal temperature range has mostly decreased during the present century in Northern and Central Europe. Frost has become less frequent. Two extreme-related precipitation characteristics, the annual maximum daily precipitation and the number of days with precipitation greater than or equal to 10 mm, show no major trends or changes in their interannual variability. An analysis of return periods indicated that in the Nordic countries there were high frequencies of 'extraordinary' 1-day rainfalls both in the 1930s and since the 1980s. There have been no long-term changes in the number of high wind speeds in the German Eight. Occurrences of thunderstorms and hails show a decreasing tendency in the Czech Republic during the last 50 years. Finally, using proxy data sources, a 500-year temperature and precipitation event graph for the Swiss Mittelland is presented. It shows large interdecadal variations as well as the exceptionality of the latest decade 1986-1995.

  • 17. Hense, Inga
    et al.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Sonntag, Sebastian
    Projected climate change impact on Baltic Sea cyanobacteria Climate change impact on cyanobacteria2013In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 119, no 2, p. 391-406Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Compared to other phytoplankton groups, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria generally prefer high water temperatures for growth and are therefore expected to benefit from global warming. We use a coupled biological-physical model with an advanced cyanobacteria life cycle model to compare the abundance of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea during two different time periods (1969-1998; 2069-2098). For the latter, we find prolonged growth and a more than twofold increase in the climatologically (30 years) averaged cyanobacteria biomass and nitrogen fixation. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the biological-physical feedback mechanism through light absorption becomes more important with global warming. In general, we find a nonlinear response of cyanobacteria to changes in the atmospheric forcing fields as a result of life-cycle related feedback mechanisms. Overall, the sensitivity of the cyanobacteria-driven system suggests that biological-physical and life-cycle related feedback mechanisms are important and must therefore be included in future projection studies.

  • 18. Huang, Shaochun
    et al.
    Kumar, Rohini
    Floerke, Martina
    Yang, Tao
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kraft, Philipp
    Gao, Chao
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Liersch, Stefan
    Lobanova, Anastasia
    Strauch, Michael
    van Ogtrop, Floris
    Reinhardt, Julia
    Haberlandt, Uwe
    Krysanova, Valentina
    Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 381-397Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 19. Huang, Shaochun
    et al.
    Kumar, Rohini
    Floerke, Martina
    Yang, Tao
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Kraft, Philipp
    Gao, Chao
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Liersch, Stefan
    Lobanova, Anastasia
    Strauch, Michael
    van Ogtrop, Floris
    Reinhardt, Julia
    Haberlandt, Uwe
    Krysanova, Valentina
    Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide (vol 141, pg 381, 2017)2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 399-400Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20. Jacob, Daniela
    et al.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Christensen, Ole Bossing
    Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
    de Castro, Manuel
    Deque, Michel
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Hirschi, Martin
    Jones, Richard
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lenderink, Geert
    Rockel, Burkhardt
    Sanchez, Enrique
    Schaer, Christoph
    Seneviratne, Sonia I.
    Somot, Samuel
    van Ulden, Aad
    van den Hurk, Bart
    An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 31-52Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The analysis of possible regional climate changes over Europe as simulated by 10 regional climate models within the context of PRUDENCE requires a careful investigation of possible systematic biases in the models. The purpose of this paper is to identify how the main model systematic biases vary across the different models. Two fundamental aspects of model validation are addressed here: the ability to simulate (1) the long-term (30 or 40 years) mean climate and (2) the inter-annual variability. The analysis concentrates on near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land and focuses mainly on winter and summer. In general, there is a warm bias with respect to the CRU data set in these extreme seasons and a tendency to cold biases in the transition seasons. In winter the typical spread (standard deviation) between the models is 1 K. During summer there is generally a better agreement between observed and simulated values of inter-annual variability although there is a relatively clear signal that the modeled temperature variability is larger than suggested by observations, while precipitation variability is closer to observations. The areas with warm (cold) bias in winter generally exhibit wet (dry) biases, whereas the relationship is the reverse during summer (though much less clear, coupling warm (cold) biases with dry (wet) ones). When comparing the RCMs with their driving GCM, they generally reproduce the large-scale circulation of the GCM though in some cases there are substantial differences between regional biases in surface temperature and precipitation.

  • 21.
    Kjellström, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jacob, Daniela
    Jones, Richard
    Lenderink, Geert
    Schaer, Christoph
    Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 249-265Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (+/- 5 degrees C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.

  • 22.
    Kjellström, Erik
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ruosteenoja, Kimmo
    Present-day and future precipitation in the Baltic Sea region as simulated in a suite of regional climate models2007In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 281-291Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Here we investigate simulated changes in the precipitation climate over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas for the period 2071-2100 as compared to 1961-1990. We analyze precipitation in 10 regional climate models taking part in the European PRUDENCE project. Forced by the same global driving climate model, the mean of the regional climate model simulations captures the observed climatological precipitation over the Baltic Sea runoff land area to within 15% in each month, while single regional models have errors up to 25%. In the future climate, the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter. During summer increased precipitation in the north is contrasted with a decrease in the south of this region. Over the Baltic Sea itself the future change in the seasonal cycle of precipitation is markedly different in the regional climate model simulations. We show that the sea surface temperatures have a profound impact on the simulated hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea. The driving global climate model used in the common experiment projects a very strong regional increase in summertime sea surface temperature, leading to a significant increase in precipitation. In addition to the common experiment some regional models have been forced by either a different set of Baltic Sea surface temperatures, lateral boundary conditions from another global climate model, a different emission scenario, or different initial conditions. We make use of the large number of experiments in the PRUDENCE project, providing an ensemble consisting of more than 25 realizations of climate change, to illustrate sources of uncertainties in climate change projections.

  • 23. Lacressonniere, Gwendoline
    et al.
    Foret, Gilles
    Beekmann, Matthias
    Siour, Guillaume
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Gauss, Michael
    Watson, Laura
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Colette, Augustin
    Josse, Beatrice
    Marecal, Virginie
    Nyiri, Agnes
    Vautard, Robert
    Impacts of regional climate change on air quality projections and associated uncertainties2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 136, no 2, p. 309-324Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 24. Menendez, C. G.
    et al.
    de Castro, M.
    Boulanger, J. -P
    D'Onofrio, A.
    Sanchez, E.
    Soerensson, A. A.
    Blazquez, J.
    Elizalde, A.
    Jacob, D.
    Le Treut, H.
    Li, Z. X.
    Nunez, M. N.
    Pessacg, N.
    Pfeiffer, S.
    Rojas, M.
    Rolla, A.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Solman, S. A.
    Teichmann, C.
    Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southern South America2010In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 98, no 3-4, p. 379-403Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the performance of one stretched-grid atmospheric global model, five different regional climate models and a statistical downscaling technique in simulating 3 months (January 1971, November 1986, July 1996) characterized by anomalous climate conditions in the southern La Plata Basin. Models were driven by reanalysis (ERA-40). The analysis has emphasized on the simulation of the precipitation over land and has provided a quantification of the biases of and scatter between the different regional simulations. Most but not all dynamical models underpredict precipitation amounts in south eastern South America during the three periods. Results suggest that models have regime dependence, performing better for some conditions than others. The models' ensemble and the statistical technique succeed in reproducing the overall observed frequency of daily precipitation for all periods. But most models tend to underestimate the frequency of dry days and overestimate the amount of light rainfall days. The number of events with strong or heavy precipitation tends to be under simulated by the models.

  • 25.
    Olsson, Jonas
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Amaguchi, Hideo
    Alsterhag, Elin
    Daverhog, Maria
    Adrian, Per-Erik
    Kawamura, Akira
    Adaptation to climate change impacts on urban storm water: a case study in Arvika, Sweden2013In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 116, no 2, p. 231-247Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Already today, the functionality of many sewer and storm water systems are not up to the required standards and consequently flooding problems are experienced in case of heavy storms. System upgrades are required, which are however complicated by the expected future increase in short-term rainfall intensities as a result of climate change. In this case study, focusing on the town of Arvika, Sweden, this issue is investigated in three main steps. In the first, extreme value analyses of 30-min rainfall from an ensemble of climate projections are carried out to estimate the future increase and generate a future design storm. In the second, the existing system's response to both today's and future design storms are simulated by a coarse sewer model setup (MOUSE) and a detailed coupled surface-sewer model setup (TSR). In the third and final step, system upgrades are designed and evaluated by both models. The results indicate an increase by 10-30 % of today's short-term rainfall extremes by the end of the century. Upgrading the system to achieve a satisfactory performance for the future design storm would cost approximately twice as much as an upgrade based on today's design storm.

  • 26.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Huang, S.
    Aich, V.
    Samaniego, L.
    Eisner, S.
    Shi, P.
    Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 467-481Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 27.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Huang, S.
    Aich, V.
    Samaniego, L.
    Eisner, S.
    Shi, P.
    Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions.2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 28. Pinto, Izidine
    et al.
    Lennard, Christopher
    Tadross, Mark
    Hewitson, Bruce
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Panitz, Hans-Juergen
    Shongwe, Mxolisi E.
    Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 135, no 3-4, p. 655-668Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 29. Refsgaard, J. C.
    et al.
    Madsen, H.
    Andreassian, V.
    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.
    Davidson, T. A.
    Drews, M.
    Hamilton, D. P.
    Jeppesen, E.
    Kjellstrom, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Olesen, J. E.
    Sonnenborg, T. O.
    Trolle, D.
    Willems, P.
    Christensen, J. H.
    A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts2014In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 122, no 1-2, p. 271-282Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

  • 30. Roudier, Philippe
    et al.
    Andersson, Jafet
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Feyen, Luc
    Greuell, Wouter
    Ludwig, Fulco
    Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a+2 degrees C global warming2016In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 135, no 2, p. 341-355Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 31. Samaniego, L.
    et al.
    Kumar, R.
    Breuer, L.
    Chamorro, A.
    Floerke, M.
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Schaefer, D.
    Shah, H.
    Vetter, T.
    Wortmann, M.
    Zeng, X.
    Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 435-449Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 32. Soerensson, Anna A.
    et al.
    Menendez, Claudio G.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Hansson, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model2010In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 98, no 3-4, p. 429-447Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We summarize the recent progress in regional climate modeling in South America with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3-E), with emphasis on soil moisture processes. A series of climatological integrations using a continental scale domain nested in reanalysis data were carried out for the initial and mature stages of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) of 1993-92 and were analyzed on seasonal and monthly timescales. The role of including a spatially varying soil depth, which extends to 8 m in tropical forest, was evaluated against the standard constant soil depth of the model of about 2 m, through two five member ensemble simulations. The influence of the soil depth was relatively weak, with both beneficial and detrimental effects on the simulation of the seasonal mean rainfall. Secondly, two ensembles that differ in their initial state of soil moisture were prepared to study the influence of anomalously in subtropical South America as well. Finally, we calculated the soil moisture-precipitation coupling strength through comparing a ten member ensemble forced by the same space-time series of soil moisture fields with an ensemble with interactive soil moisture. Coupling strength is defined as the degree to which the prescribed boundary conditions affect some atmospheric quantity in a climate model, in this context a quantification of the fraction of atmospheric variability that can be ascribed to soil moisture anomalies. La Plata Basin appears as a region where the precipitation is partly controlled by soil moisture, especially in November and January. The continental convective monsoon regions and subtropical South America appears as a region with relatively high coupling strength during the mature phase of monsoon development dry and wet soil moisture initial conditions on the intraseasonal development of the SAMS. In these simulations the austral winter soil moisture initial condition has a strong influence on wet season rainfall over feed back upon the monsoon, not only over the Amazon region but in subtropical South America as well. Finally, we calculated the soil moisture-precipitation coupling strength through comparing a ten member ensemble forced by the same space-time series of soil moisture fields with an ensemble with interactive soil moisture. Coupling strength is defined as the degree to which the prescribed boundary conditions affect some atmospheric quantity in a climate model, in this context a quantification of the fraction of atmospheric variability that can be ascribed to soil moisture anomalies. La Plata Basin appears as a region where the precipitation is partly controlled by soil moisture, especially in November and January. The continental convective monsoon regions and subtropical South America appears as a region with relatively high coupling strength during the mature phase of monsoon development.

  • 33. Vetter, Tobias
    et al.
    Reinhardt, Julia
    Floerke, Martina
    van Griensven, Ann
    Hattermann, Fred
    Huang, Shaochun
    Koch, Hagen
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Ploetner, Stefan
    Seidou, Ousmane
    Su, Buda
    Vervoort, R. Willem
    Krysanova, Valentina
    Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins2017In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 141, no 3, p. 419-433Article in journal (Refereed)
1 - 33 of 33
CiteExportLink to result list
Permanent link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.35.8
|