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  • 1.
    Belusic, Danijel
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jukimenko, Alex
    Afforestation reduces cyclone intensity and precipitation extremes over Europe2019Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 7, artikkel-id UNSP 074009Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 2.
    Bärring, Lars
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 2, artikkel-id 024029Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 3. Colette, Augustin
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Baklanov, Alexander
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Brandt, Jorgen
    Christensen, Jesper H.
    Doherty, Ruth
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Geels, Camilla
    Giannakopoulos, Christos
    Hedegaard, Gitte B.
    Katragkou, Eleni
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Lei, Hang
    Manders, Astrid
    Melas, Dimitris
    Meleux, Frederik
    Rouil, Laurence
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Soares, Joana
    Stevenson, David S.
    Tombrou-Tzella, Maria
    Varotsos, Konstantinos V.
    Young, Paul
    Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?2015Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 8, artikkel-id 084015Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.

  • 4. Dosio, Alessandro
    et al.
    Mentaschi, Lorenzo
    Fischer, Erich M.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Extreme heat waves under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 5, artikkel-id 054006Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 5. Hattermann, F. F.
    et al.
    Vetter, T.
    Breuer, L.
    Su, Buda
    Daggupati, P.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Fekete, B.
    Floerke, F.
    Gosling, S. N.
    Hoffmann, P.
    Liersch, S.
    Masaki, Y.
    Motovilov, Y.
    Mueller, C.
    Samaniego, L.
    Stacke, T.
    Wada, Y.
    Yang, T.
    Krysnaova, V.
    Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 1, artikkel-id 015006Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 6.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    An update on the thermosteric sea level rise commitment to global warming2019Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 5, artikkel-id 054018Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 7. Klutse, Nana Ama Browne
    et al.
    Ajayi, Vincent O.
    Gbobaniyi, Bode
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Egbebiyi, Temitope S.
    Kouadio, Kouakou
    Nkrumah, Francis
    Quagraine, Kwesi Akumenyi
    Olusegun, Christiana
    Diasso, Ulrich
    Abiodun, Babatunde J.
    Lawal, Kamoru
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Lennard, Christopher
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Potential impact of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 5, artikkel-id 055013Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 8. Krysanova, Valentina
    et al.
    Vetter, Tobias
    Eisner, Stephanie
    Huang, Shaochun
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Strauch, Michael
    Gelfan, Alexander
    Kumar, Rohini
    Aich, Valentin
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Chamorro, Alejandro
    van Griensven, Ann
    Kundu, Dipangkar
    Lobanova, Anastasia
    Mishra, Vimal
    Plotner, Stefan
    Reinhardt, Julia
    Seidou, Ousmane
    Wang, Xiaoyan
    Wortmann, Michel
    Zeng, Xiaofan
    Hattermann, Fred F.
    Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide-a synthesis2017Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, nr 10, artikkel-id 105002Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 9. Lenderink, Geert
    et al.
    Belusic, Danijel
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Fowler, Hayley J.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Lind, Petter
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    van Ulft, Bert
    de Vries, Hylke
    Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model2019Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 7, artikkel-id 074012Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 10. Lennard, C. J.
    et al.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dosio, A.
    Moufouma-Okia, W.
    On the need for regional climate information over Africa under varying levels of global warming2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 6, artikkel-id 060401Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 11. Maure, G.
    et al.
    Pinto, I.
    Ndebele-Murisa, M.
    Muthige, M.
    Lennard, C.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dosio, A.
    Meque, A.
    The southern African climate under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 6, artikkel-id 065002Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 12. Mba, Wilfried Pokam
    et al.
    Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.
    Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran
    Bell, Jean-Pierre
    James, Rachel
    Vondou, Derbetini A.
    Haensler, Andreas
    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.
    Guenang, Guy Merlin
    Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie Djiotang
    Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.
    Takong, Ridick R.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Lennard, Christopher J.
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Consequences of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 5, artikkel-id 055011Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 13.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Chubarenko, Boris
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Eilola, Kari
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Hansson, Anders
    Havenhand, Jonathan
    Höglund, Anders
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Muller-Karulis, Barbel
    Neumann, Thomas
    Niiranen, Susa
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Raudsepp, Urmas
    Reckermann, Marcus
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Vali, Germo
    Weslawski, Jan-Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations2012Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, nr 3, artikkel-id 034005Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

  • 14.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Lennard, Chris
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Chen, Youmin
    Haensler, Andreas
    Kupiainen, Marco
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Laprise, Rene
    Mariotti, Laura
    Maule, Cathrine Fox
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Panitz, Hans-Juergen
    Scinocca, John F.
    Somot, Samuel
    The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 6, artikkel-id 065003Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 15. Orru, Hans
    et al.
    Astrom, Christofer
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Tamm, Tanel
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission2019Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 7, artikkel-id 074013Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 16. Osima, Sarah
    et al.
    Indasi, Victor S.
    Zaroug, Modathir
    Endris, Hussen Seid
    Gudoshava, Masilin
    Misiani, Herbert O.
    Nimusiima, Alex
    Anyah, Richard O.
    Otieno, George
    Ogwang, Bob A.
    Jain, Suman
    Kondowe, Alfred L.
    Mwangi, Emmah
    Lennard, Chris
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 6, artikkel-id 065004Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 17. Reckermann, Marcus
    et al.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Omstedt, Anders
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    von Storch, Hans
    Keevallik, Sirje
    Schneider, Bernd
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Meier, Markus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Huenicke, Birgit
    BALTEX-an interdisciplinary research network for the Baltic Sea region2011Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, nr 4, artikkel-id 045205Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    BALTEX is an environmental research network dealing with the Earth system of the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin. Important elements include the water and energy cycle, climate variability and change, water management and extreme events, and related impacts on biogeochemical cycles. BALTEX was founded in 1993 as a GEWEX continental-scale experiment and is currently in its second 10 yr phase. Phase I (1993-2002) was primarily dedicated to hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic processes in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, hence mostly dealt with the physical aspects of the system. Scientific focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the Baltic Sea and the surface of its catchment. The BALTEX study area was hydrologically defined as the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The second 10 yr phase of BALTEX (Phase II: 2003-12) has strengthened regional climate research, water management issues, biogeochemical cycles and overarching efforts to reach out to stakeholders and decision makers, as well as to foster communication and education. Achievements of BALTEX Phase II have been the establishment of an assessment report of regional climate change and its impacts on the Baltic Sea basin (from hydrological to biological and socio-economic), the further development of regional physical climate models and the integration of biogeochemical and ecosystem models. BALTEX features a strong infrastructure, with an international secretariat and a publication series, and organizes various workshops and conferences. This article gives an overview of the BALTEX programme, with an emphasis on Phase II, with some examples from BALTEX-related research.

  • 18. Sorland, Silje Lund
    et al.
    Schar, Christoph
    Luthi, Daniel
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains2018Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 7, artikkel-id 074017Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 19. Tobin, Isabelle
    et al.
    Jerez, Sonia
    Vautard, Robert
    Thais, Francoise
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Prein, Andreas
    Deque, Michel
    Kotlarski, Sven
    Maule, Cathrine Fox
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Noel, Thomas
    Teichmann, Claas
    Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario2016Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 3, artikkel-id 034013Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within +/- 5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.

  • 20. Vautard, Robert
    et al.
    Gobiet, Andreas
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Stegehuis, Annemiek
    Watkiss, Paul
    Mendlik, Thomas
    Landgren, Oskar
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Teichmann, Claas
    Jacob, Daniela
    The European climate under a 2 degrees C global warming2014Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, nr 3, artikkel-id 034006Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A global warming of 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 degrees C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North-South (West-East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models' climate sensitivity.

  • 21. Zhang, Wenxin
    et al.
    Miller, Paul A.
    Smith, Benjamin
    Wania, Rita
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model2013Inngår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, nr 3, artikkel-id 034023Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.

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