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  • 1. Bloeschl, Guenter
    et al.
    Hall, Julia
    Viglione, Alberto
    Perdigao, Rui A. P.
    Parajka, Juraj
    Merz, Bruno
    Lun, David
    Arheimer, Berit
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Aronica, Giuseppe T.
    Bilibashi, Ardian
    Bohac, Milon
    Bonacci, Ognjen
    Borga, Marco
    Canjevac, Ivan
    Castellarin, Attilio
    Chirico, Giovanni B.
    Claps, Pierluigi
    Frolova, Natalia
    Ganora, Daniele
    Gorbachova, Liudmyla
    Gul, Ali
    Hannaford, Jamie
    Harrigan, Shaun
    Kireeva, Maria
    Kiss, Andrea
    Kjeldsen, Thomas R.
    Kohnova, Silvia
    Koskela, Jarkko J.
    Ledvinka, Ondrej
    Macdonald, Neil
    Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria
    Mediero, Luis
    Merz, Ralf
    Molnar, Peter
    Montanari, Alberto
    Murphy, Conor
    Osuch, Marzena
    Ovcharuk, Valeryia
    Radevski, Ivan
    Salinas, Jose L.
    Sauquet, Eric
    Sraj, Mojca
    Szolgay, Jan
    Volpi, Elena
    Wilson, Donna
    Zaimi, Klodian
    Zivkovic, Nenad
    Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods2019Ingår i: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 573, nr 7772, s. 108-+Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere(1). These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe(2). Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe(3), because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century(4,5), suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

  • 2.
    Langner, Joakim
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    RODHE, H
    CRUTZEN, PJ
    ZIMMERMANN, P
    ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF TROPOSPHERIC SULFATE AEROSOL1992Ingår i: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 359, nr 6397, s. 712-716Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    HUMAN activities have increased global emissions of sulphur gases by about a factor of three during the past century, leading to increased sulphate aerosol concentrations, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. Sulphate aerosols can affect the climate directly, by increasing the backscattering of solar radiation in cloud-free air, and indirectly, by providing additional cloud condensation nuclei1-4. Here we use a global transport-chemistry model to estimate the changes in the distribution of tropospheric sulphate aerosol and deposition of non-seasalt sulphur that have occurred since pre-industrial times. The increase in sulphate aerosol concentration is small over the Southern Hemisphere oceans, but reaches a factor of 100 over northern Europe in winter. Our calculations indicate, however, that at most 6% of the anthropogenic sulphur emissions is available for the formation of new aerosol particles. This is because about one-half of the sulphur dioxide is deposited on the Earth's surface, and most of the remainder is oxidized in cloud droplets so that the sulphate becomes associated with pre-existing particles. Even so, the rate of formation of new sulphate particles may have doubled since pre-industrial times.

  • 3. McFiggans, Gordon
    et al.
    Mentel, Thomas F.
    Wildt, Juergen
    Pullinen, Iida
    Kang, Sungah
    Kleist, Einhard
    Schmitt, Sebastian
    Springer, Monika
    Tillmann, Ralf
    Wu, Cheng
    Zhao, Defeng
    Hallquist, Mattias
    Faxon, Cameron
    Le Breton, Michael
    Hallquist, Asa M.
    Simpson, David
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Jenkin, Michael E.
    Ehn, Mikael
    Thornton, Joel A.
    Alfarra, M. Rami
    Bannan, Thomas J.
    Percival, Carl J.
    Priestley, Michael
    Topping, David
    Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid
    Secondary organic aerosol reduced by mixture of atmospheric vapours2019Ingår i: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 565, nr 7741, s. 587-593Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 4. Palmer, T N
    et al.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate2002Ingår i: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 415, nr 6871, s. 512-514Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will almost certainly lead to changes in global mean climate(1). But because-by definition-extreme events are rare, it is significantly more difficult to quantify the risk of extremes. Ensemble-based probabilistic predictions(2), as used in short- and medium-term forecasts of weather and climate, are more useful than deterministic forecasts using a 'best guess' scenario to address this sort of problem(3,4). Here we present a probabilistic analysis of 19 global climate model simulations with a generic binary decision model. We estimate that the probability of total boreal winter precipitation exceeding two standard deviations above normal will increase by a factor of five over parts of the UK over the next 100 years. We find similar increases in probability for the Asian monsoon region in boreal summer, with implications for flooding in Bangladesh. Further practical applications of our techniques would be helped by the use of larger ensembles (for a more complete sampling of model uncertainty) and a wider range of scenarios at a resolution adequate to analyse average-size river basins.

  • 5. Taylor, Christopher M.
    et al.
    Belusic, Danijel
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Guichard, Francoise
    Arker, Douglas J. P.
    Vischel, Theo
    Bock, Olivier
    Harris, Phil P.
    Janicot, Serge
    Klein, Cornelia
    Panthou, Geremy
    Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations2017Ingår i: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 544, nr 7651, s. 475-+Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
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