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  • 1.
    Langner, Joakim
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    RODHE, H
    CRUTZEN, PJ
    ZIMMERMANN, P
    ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF TROPOSPHERIC SULFATE AEROSOL1992In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 359, no 6397, p. 712-716Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    HUMAN activities have increased global emissions of sulphur gases by about a factor of three during the past century, leading to increased sulphate aerosol concentrations, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. Sulphate aerosols can affect the climate directly, by increasing the backscattering of solar radiation in cloud-free air, and indirectly, by providing additional cloud condensation nuclei1-4. Here we use a global transport-chemistry model to estimate the changes in the distribution of tropospheric sulphate aerosol and deposition of non-seasalt sulphur that have occurred since pre-industrial times. The increase in sulphate aerosol concentration is small over the Southern Hemisphere oceans, but reaches a factor of 100 over northern Europe in winter. Our calculations indicate, however, that at most 6% of the anthropogenic sulphur emissions is available for the formation of new aerosol particles. This is because about one-half of the sulphur dioxide is deposited on the Earth's surface, and most of the remainder is oxidized in cloud droplets so that the sulphate becomes associated with pre-existing particles. Even so, the rate of formation of new sulphate particles may have doubled since pre-industrial times.

  • 2. McFiggans, Gordon
    et al.
    Mentel, Thomas F.
    Wildt, Juergen
    Pullinen, Iida
    Kang, Sungah
    Kleist, Einhard
    Schmitt, Sebastian
    Springer, Monika
    Tillmann, Ralf
    Wu, Cheng
    Zhao, Defeng
    Hallquist, Mattias
    Faxon, Cameron
    Le Breton, Michael
    Hallquist, Asa M.
    Simpson, David
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Jenkin, Michael E.
    Ehn, Mikael
    Thornton, Joel A.
    Alfarra, M. Rami
    Bannan, Thomas J.
    Percival, Carl J.
    Priestley, Michael
    Topping, David
    Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid
    Secondary organic aerosol reduced by mixture of atmospheric vapours2019In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 565, no 7741, p. 587-593Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 3. Palmer, T N
    et al.
    Räisänen, Jouni
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate2002In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 415, no 6871, p. 512-514Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will almost certainly lead to changes in global mean climate(1). But because-by definition-extreme events are rare, it is significantly more difficult to quantify the risk of extremes. Ensemble-based probabilistic predictions(2), as used in short- and medium-term forecasts of weather and climate, are more useful than deterministic forecasts using a 'best guess' scenario to address this sort of problem(3,4). Here we present a probabilistic analysis of 19 global climate model simulations with a generic binary decision model. We estimate that the probability of total boreal winter precipitation exceeding two standard deviations above normal will increase by a factor of five over parts of the UK over the next 100 years. We find similar increases in probability for the Asian monsoon region in boreal summer, with implications for flooding in Bangladesh. Further practical applications of our techniques would be helped by the use of larger ensembles (for a more complete sampling of model uncertainty) and a wider range of scenarios at a resolution adequate to analyse average-size river basins.

  • 4. Taylor, Christopher M.
    et al.
    Belusic, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Guichard, Francoise
    Arker, Douglas J. P.
    Vischel, Theo
    Bock, Olivier
    Harris, Phil P.
    Janicot, Serge
    Klein, Cornelia
    Panthou, Geremy
    Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations2017In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 544, no 7651, p. 475-+Article in journal (Refereed)
1 - 4 of 4
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