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  • 1. Achberger, C
    et al.
    Chen, D L
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    The surface winds of Sweden during 1999-20002006In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 26, no 2, p. 159-178Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study aims at increasing our understanding of the regional wind climate in Sweden. Spatial and temporal patterns of the surface winds are presented for the years 1999-2000. Annual mean wind speeds range between 2 and 5 m/s with high values at exposed mountainous sites and on islands off the coast. Combining wind speed and direction into mean wind velocities shows that flow conditions are stronger and more coherent in space in southern Sweden than in central and northern Sweden. The spatial scale, defined as the distance between stations when the correlation for wind speed drops to similar to 0.37, was determined by pairwise correlations between all possible station pairs. Scales range from 38 to 530 km for wind speed and from 40 to 830 km for wind direction depending on the region. They tend to be smaller in central and northern Sweden, where the more pronounced relief has a larger influence on the local wind conditions. The strength and the timing of the annual and diurnal wind speed cycle have been estimated for each station. Amplitudes of the annual cycle are greater at exposed sites and correlate generally well with annual mean wind speeds. Monthly mean wind speeds peak in winter in southern Sweden, but peak in other seasons in the remaining regions. In winter, weaker pressure gradients over northern Sweden and surface-near temperature inversions contribute to weaker surface winds. Diurnal cycles vary in strength between summer and winter. Compared to the last normal climate period (1961-1990), 1999-2000 is characterized by the increased occurrence of westerly and southerly geostrophic flow. Copyright (C) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

  • 2.
    Akinde, Michael
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Bohlen, M H
    Johnson, T
    Lakshmanan, L V S
    Srivastava, D
    Efficient OLAP query processing in distributed data warehouses2003In: Information Systems, ISSN 0306-4379, E-ISSN 1873-6076, Vol. 28, no 1-2, p. 111-135Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The success of Internet applications has led to an explosive growth in the demand for bandwidth from. Internet Service Providers. Managing an Internet protocol network requires collecting and analyzing network data, such as flow-level traffic statistics. Such analyses can typically be expressed as OLAP queries, e.g., correlated aggregate queries and data cubes. Current day OLAP tools for this task assume the availability of the data in a centralized data warehouse. However, the inherently distributed nature of data collection and the huge amount of data extracted at each collection point make it impractical to gather all data at a centralized site. One solution is to maintain a distributed data warehouse, consisting of local data warehouses at-each collection point and a coordinator site, with most of the processing being performed at the local sites. In this paper, we consider the problem of efficient evaluation of OLAP queries over a distributed data warehouse. We have developed the Skalla system for this task. Skalla translates OLAP queries, specified as certain algebraic expressions, into distributed evaluation plans which are shipped to individual sites. A salient property of our approach is that only partial results are shipped - never parts of the detail data. We propose a variety of optimizations to minimize both the synchronization traffic and the local processing done at each site. We finally present an experimental study based on TPC-R data. Our results demonstrate the scalability of our techniques and quantify the performance benefits of the optimization techniques that have gone into the Skalla system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 3. Alberoni, P P
    et al.
    Andersson, T
    SMHI.
    Mezzasalma, P
    Michelson, Daniel
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Nanni, S
    Use of the vertical reflectivity profile for identification of anomalous propagation2001In: Meteorological Applications, ISSN 1350-4827, E-ISSN 1469-8080, Vol. 8, no 3, p. 257-266Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anomalous propagation (anaprop), analogous to the upper mirage in the visual wavelengths, is still a major problem in radar meteorology. This phenomenon assumes particular importance in automatic recognition and estimation of rainfall. Anaprop echoes from terrain features such as hills and coasts Often give echoes up to 50-60 dBZ equivalent to heavy rain or hail in severe thunderstorms. Anaprop echoes from sea waves may be comparable in strength to those from moderate precipitation and also form similar patterns. Based on the evidence that the vertical reflectivity profile of precipitation is quite different from the anaprop profile, two methods for anaprop identification are presented. The method proposed by the Servizio Meteorologico Regionale (SMR, Italy) simply uses the operational scan procedure to discriminate between precipitation and anaprop. At the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute an 'ad hoc' scan strategy has been developed in order to obtain much more detail of the lowest reflectivity profile. A number of statistical parameters have been used to achieve a better discrimination between precipitation, land and sea clutter. A number of case studies, representing different echo intensities and patterns, and including a case of anaprop with embedded precipitation, are presented to assess the impact of these methods.

  • 4.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Temperatur och nederbörd i Sverige 1860 -20012002Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Swedish temperature and precipitation series from 1860-2001 are analysed  in this report. Sweden  is divided into four regions. These are defined according to the drainage basins: Gulf of Bothnia (Bv), Bothnian Sea (Bh), Proper Baltic Sea (EÖ) and Kattegatt and Skagerrak (Vh). Annual series of  temperature and precipitation as well as series for the traditional  seasons  winter (December  previous year, January, February), spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August) and autumn (Sep­ tember, October, November) are presented. All series have been homgenised and all missing values for incomplete series have been filled out by    interpolation.

     

    Generally the analyses show that Sweden has become warmer  and wetter  in this centennial  perspective.  As a rule changes and trends are larger in the two northerly regions (Bv and Bh). The increase of annual temperature amounts to 0.9° (Bv), 0.8° (Bh), 0.5° (EÖ) and 0.5° (Vh) when data from the colder period 1860-1925 is compared with the warmer period 1926-2001. Annual precipitation <luring the drier period 1860-1920  is compared  with the wetter  period  1921-2001. The  relative changes  are 23% (Bv), 15% (Bh), 7% (EÖ) and 7% (Vh). Spring temperature  and winter precipitation  show especially !arge    mcreases.

     

    Comparisons with runoff data indicate that evapotranspiration has become much larger. It is argued that the substantial increase of forest biomass could be one explanation and higher temperatures could be another. The increase of forest biomass leads to larger interception and then larger evaporation and as a rule also larger transpiration. The warming in spring and autumn leads to a longer active season for the vegetation.

  • 5.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions2010In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 115, article id D02303Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Projections of future surface ozone over Europe conducted utilizing chemistry transport models (CTMs) coupled to climate models differ greatly, even in sign. CTM sensitivity studies were conducted in order to investigate the importance of changes in natural isoprene emissions and dry deposition to vegetation, both coupled to meteorology. This knowledge can be used to improve surface ozone projections. Our simulations suggest climate change over Europe would cause changes in surface ozone between -4.0 to +13 ppb(v) on average (April-September) and -3.5 to +25 ppb(v) on average (April-September) daily maximum from 1961 - 1990 to 2071 - 2100. The change is positive in the southwest and negative in the north. The isoprene emissions increased by a factor of about 1.8 from 1961 - 1990 to 2071 - 2100. A rescaling of isoprene emissions shows that the large increase in isoprene emission is of importance (0 - 30% of the change in surface ozone) in central, southern, and western Europe. The use of a formulation for ozone dry deposition to vegetation, dependent on meteorology, and changes in snow cover, affecting the dry deposition, are more important processes. The changes in dry deposition to vegetation (not including changes in aerodynamic resistance) explain up to 80% of the surface ozone change in Spain. Therefore it is vital to include meteorological dependence for dry deposition of ozone to vegetation in surface ozone projections. Isoprene emissions are of less importance, but they are nonnegligible and should definitely be emitted online in climate ozone projection studies.

  • 6.
    Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Bergström, Robert
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958-2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis2007In: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology, ISSN 0280-6509, E-ISSN 1600-0889, Vol. 59, no 1, p. 77-98Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A three-dimensional Chemistry Transport Model was used to study the meteorologically induced interannual variability and trends in deposition of sulphur and nitrogen as well as concentrations of surface ozone (O(3)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and particulate matter (PM) and its constituents over Europe during 1958-2001. The model was coupled to the meteorological reanalysis ERA40, produced at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Emissions and boundary conditions of chemical compounds and PM were kept constant at present levels. The average European interannual variation, due to meteorological variability, ranges from 3% for O(3), 5% for NO(2), 9% for PM, 6-9% for dry deposition, to about 20% for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. For the period 1979-2001 the trend in ozone, due to climate variability is increasing in central and southwestern Europe and decreasing in northeastern Europe, the trend in NO(2) is approximately opposite. The trend in PM is positive in eastern Europe. There are negative trends in wet deposition in southwestern and central Europe and positive trends in dry deposition overall. A bias in ERA40 precipitation could be partly responsible for the trends. The variation and trends need to be considered when interpreting measurements and designing measurement campaigns.

  • 7. Andersson, E.
    et al.
    Kahnert, Michael
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Methodology for evaluating lateral boundary conditions in the regional chemical transport model MATCH (v5.5.0) using combined satellite and ground-based observations2015In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, no 11, p. 3747-3763Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hemispheric transport of air pollutants can have a significant impact on regional air quality, as well as on the effect of air pollutants on regional climate. An accurate representation of hemispheric transport in regional chemical transport models (CTMs) depends on the specification of the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). This study focuses on the methodology for evaluating LBCs of two moderately long-lived trace gases, carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O-3), for the European model domain and over a 7-year period, 2006-2012. The method is based on combining the use of satellite observations at the lateral boundary with the use of both satellite and in situ ground observations within the model domain. The LBCs are generated by the global European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West (EMEP MSC-W) model; they are evaluated at the lateral boundaries by comparison with satellite observations of the Terra-MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) sensor (CO) and the Aura-OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) sensor (O-3). The LBCs from the global model lie well within the satellite uncertainties for both CO and O-3. The biases increase below 700 hPa for both species. However, the satellite retrievals below this height are strongly influenced by the a priori data; hence, they are less reliable than at, e.g. 500 hPa. CO is, on average, underestimated by the global model, while O-3 tends to be overestimated during winter, and underestimated during summer. A regional CTM is run with (a) the validated monthly climatological LBCs from the global model; (b) dynamical LBCs from the global model; and (c) constant LBCs based on in situ ground observations near the domain boundary. The results are validated against independent satellite retrievals from the Aqua-AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder) sensor at 500 hPa, and against in situ ground observations from the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) network. It is found that (i) the use of LBCs from the global model gives reliable in-domain results for O-3 and CO at 500 hPa. Taking AIRS retrievals as a reference, the use of these LBCs substantially improves spatial pattern correlations in the free troposphere as compared to results obtained with fixed LBCs based on ground observations. Also, the magnitude of the bias is reduced by the new LBCs for both trace gases. This demonstrates that the validation methodology based on using satellite observations at the domain boundary is sufficiently robust in the free troposphere. (ii) The impact of the LBCs on ground concentrations is significant only at locations in close proximity to the domain boundary. As the satellite data near the ground mainly reflect the a priori estimate used in the retrieval procedure, they are of little use for evaluating the effect of LBCs on ground concentrations. Rather, the evaluation of ground-level concentrations needs to rely on in situ ground observations. (iii) The improvements of dynamic over climatological LBCs become most apparent when using accumulated ozone over threshold 40 ppb (AOT40) as a metric. Also, when focusing on ground observations taken near the inflow boundary of the model domain, one finds that the use of dynamical LBCs yields a more accurate representation of the seasonal variation, as well as of the variability of the trace gas concentrations on shorter timescales.

  • 8.
    Andersson, Tage
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    A HEAVY MESOSCALE SNOWFALL EVENT IN NORTHERN GERMANY1991In: METEOROLOGICAL MAGAZINE, ISSN 0026-1149, Vol. 120, no 1425, p. 67-68Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Andersson, Tage
    SMHI, Research Department.
    Isbildning på flygplan1988Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Med isbildning på flygplan avses alla sorters avlagringar av vatten i fast form. Avlagringen kan ske såväl då flygplanet befinner sig på marken som i luften. Den kan finnas på synliga delar som vingar, stabilisatorer och vindrutor, ellerdolt som i förgasare till kolvmotorer. En egenskap har isbildning (nästan undantagslöst) gemensam: Den försämrar planets flygegenskaper. Graden av försämring kan variera från obetydlig till katastrofal. Det faktum att isbildning som avsevärt försämrar planets flygegenskaper är sällsynt gör inte prognostikerns uppgift lättare. Tvärtom, ovanliga fenomen är alltid svåra att förutsäga. Flygning i moln med underkylda vattendroppar resulterar nästan alltid i att ett tunnt isskikt bildas på tex vingframkanterna. I regel blir då försämringen av flygegenskaperna så liten att den inte märks. Sådan isbildning är av föga intresse för flygaren. Däremot är isbildning som ALLVARLIGT försämrar planets flygegenskaper vital. Att förutsäga enbart "isbildning" är därför till liten nytta för piloten. Isbildningens INTENSITET eller SVÅRIGHETSGRAD måste också förutsägas, vilket ytterligare komplicerar meteorologens arbete.Ett tunnt isskikt är dock ej alltid harmlöst. Om rimfrost bildas på vingens översida på ett flygplan på marken blir den släta ytan skrovlig, något som katastrofalt kan försämra lyftkraften.Beroende på flygplanets form avlagras is olika snabbt på olika delar av planet. Isen växer snabbast på spetsiga delar, som antenner, pitotrör och vingframkanter. Isbildningen kan därför också skilja sig från flygplantyp till flygplantyp. Olika flygplantyper reagerar också olika för isbildning. Deltavingade flygplan, som Draken och Viggen, har flygegenskaper som påverkas relativt litet även av ett tjockt islager på den spetsiga vingframkanten.Isbildning uppträder vid stratiforma moln i relativt tunna skikt. Om planet snabbt kan passera genom ett sådant skikt, hinner avlagringen ej bli så mäktig. Men om planet tvingas uppehålla sig länge där, kan avlagringen växa sig mäktig. Exempel på detta är vid landning, då planet har låg sjunkhastighet eller kan tvingas behålla samma höjd en längre tid (holding). Ett annat exempel är VFR-flygning, då planet kan stängas in i ett isbildningsskikt mellan marken och molnbasen.Tunga trafikflygplan har effektiva avisningsanordningar. Därför är de okänsliga för isbildning under flygning. Lätta flygplan och militärflygplan saknar i regel visningsanordningar på vingar och stabilisatorer. Där kan alltså is obehindrat byggas upp, och dessa flygplan är MYCKET KÄNSLIGARE för isbildning. Jetflygplan har i regel avisningsanordningar på luftintagen till motorn/motorerna.Helikoptrar har speciellt stora isbildningsproblem. Särskilt är motorerna (gäller jetmotorer) känsliga. Vid ymnig blötsnö kan snön kväva dem. Is som bildats på luftintagen eller stag på flygkroppen kan lossna (tex om helikoptern når varmare områden och isen börjar smälta) komma in i motorn och skada kompressorn. Is på huvudrotorn försämrar dess lyftkraft och orsakar allvarliga skakningar. Is på stjärtrotorn kan då den lossnar slungas iväg mot andra delar av helikoptern och skada dem. Is på vindrutan är allvarlig, eftersom den förhindrar sikten framåt.Uppenbarligen är isbildning på flygplan ett komplicerat problem. Det är endast delvis meteorologiskt. Identiska meteorologiska förhållanden ger olika grader av isbildning, beroende på flygplantyp och flygoperation. Vidare är pilotens upplevelse av isbildningen subjektiv. Att förutsäga isbildning ingår dock i flygmeteorologens uppgifter.Som nämnts är svår isbildning ett sällsynt fenomen. Andelen haverier som orsakas av isbildning är också relativt liten. Ca 3% av de civila flyghaverierna i USA åren 1973-77 tillskrevs tex isbildning. Dessa haverier blir dock ofta svåra, med dödlig utgång för besättning och passagerare.

  • 10.
    Andersson, Tage
    SMHI, Research Department.
    VAD winds from C band Ericsson Doppler Weather Radars1998In: Meteorologische Zeitschrift, ISSN 0941-2948, E-ISSN 1610-1227, Vol. 7, no 6, p. 309-319Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The VAD (Velocity Azimuth Display) technique for retrieving winds from a single Doppler weather radar is well known as a robust and simple one, though still not used on its merits. Precipitation generally gives VAD winds, but it is less known that even in high latitudes during the warmer seasons the Doppler weather radars of today record enough clear air echos to give wind profiles in the planetary boundary layer. There are, however, few verifications of VAD winds in general, and hardly any concerning clear air. In this paper mainly VAD winds from one Ericsson Doppler Weather Radar in Jonsered, Gothenburg (57.723 degrees N, 12.172 degrees E, 164 m above MSL) are compared to Radiosonde Winds (RAWINDs) from Landwetter (57.668 degrees N, 12.296 degrees E, 155 m above MSL). The sites are about 10 km apart, and the radiosonde is within the range used for the VAD (30 km). The VAD soundings were made each hour, and the radiosoundings every 6th (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC). About seven months of data were available (9 Dec. 1994 to 14 Feb. 1995 and 28 Jun. to 30 Nov. 1995). The LORAN C system was used to retrieve the RAWINDs during the first period (Dec. 1994 to Feb. 1995), and the OMEGA system was used during the second period. The comparisons are made using the five standard pressure levels, 925, 850, 700, 500 and 400 hPa, corresponding to heights above MSL of about 750, 1450, 3000, 5600 and 7200 m. As overall results, the average differences, in m/s, between the VAD and RAWIND were largest at the lowest (geometrically) levels, and higher up more or less constant with height. This is remarkable, since the wind speed increases with height, and the relative differences thus decrease with height. As an example, the average of the magnitude of the wind vector differences was 3.2 m/s at 925 hPa, but about 2.8 m/s at the higher levels. The differences also tend to be somewhat larger for winds retrieved from clear air echos. In the planetary boundary layer during summer, that is up to about 800 hPa, the availability of VAD winds was about 90 %. The availability decreases with height, and at 400 hPa it was 15 % for the whole period. Comparisons are also performed between VAD winds and winds from a limited area model, HIRLAM.

  • 11.
    Andersson, Tage
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Andersson, M
    SMHI.
    Jacobsson, Caje
    SMHI.
    Nilsson, Stefan
    SMHI.
    THERMODYNAMIC INDEXES FOR FORECASTING THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SWEDEN1989In: METEOROLOGICAL MAGAZINE, ISSN 0026-1149, Vol. 118, no 1404, p. 141-146Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Andersson, Tage
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department.
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    COAST OF DEPARTURE AND COAST OF ARRIVAL - 2 IMPORTANT CONCEPTS FOR THE FORMATION AND STRUCTURE OF CONVECTIVE SNOWBANDS OVER SEAS AND LAKES1994In: Monthly Weather Review, ISSN 0027-0644, E-ISSN 1520-0493, Vol. 122, no 6, p. 1036-1049Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A case with intense convective snowbands over the Baltic Sea is examined using the High-Resolution Limited Area Model. The intention is to gain a better insight into the importance of the shape of the cowta, the orography, and the surface roughness on the formation and evolution of the snowbands. Among the factors studied am the shape of the coast from which the air departs and that to which it arrives. These factors are so important that two new concepts-coast of departure and coast of arrival-are introduced.

  • 13.
    Andersson, Tage
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Ivarsson, Karl-Ivar
    SMHI.
    A MODEL FOR PROBABILITY NOWCASTS OF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION USING RADAR1991In: Journal of applied meteorology (1988), ISSN 0894-8763, E-ISSN 1520-0450, Vol. 30, no 1, p. 135-141Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new model for making probability forecasts of accumulated spot precipitation from weather radar data is presented. The model selects a source region upwind of the forecast spot. All pixels (horizontal size 2 x 2 km2) within the source region are considered, having the same probability of hitting the forecast spot. A pixel hitting the forecast spot is supposed to precipitate there a short time (about 10 min.). A drawing is performed, and a frequency distribution of accumulated precipitation during the first time step of the forecast is obtained. A second drawing gives the frequency distribution of accumulated precipitation during the first to second time step, a third one during the first to third, and so on until the end of the forecast period is reached. A number of forecasts for 1-h accumulated precipitation, with lead times of 0, 1, and 2 h, have been performed and verified. The forecasts for 0-h lead time got the highest Brier skill scores, +50% to 60% relative to climatological forecasts for accumulated precipitation below 1 mm.

  • 14.
    Andersson, Tage
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Lindgren, Bo
    SMHI.
    A SEA-BREEZE FRONT SEEN BY RADAR1992In: METEOROLOGICAL MAGAZINE, ISSN 0026-1149, Vol. 121, no 1443, p. 239-241Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Andersson, Tage
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Nilsson, Stefan
    SMHI, Core Services.
    TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTIVE SNOWBANDS OVER THE BALTIC SEA AND THEIR PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION1990In: Weather and forecasting, ISSN 0882-8156, E-ISSN 1520-0434, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 299-312Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 16. Ansell, T. J.
    et al.
    Jones, P. D.
    Allan, R. J.
    Lister, D.
    Parker, D. E.
    Brunet, M.
    Moberg, A.
    Jacobeit, J.
    Brohan, P.
    Rayner, N. A.
    Aguilar, E.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    SMHI.
    Barriendos, M.
    Brandsma, T.
    Cox, N. J.
    Della-Marta, P. M.
    Drebs, A.
    Founda, D.
    Gerstengarbe, F.
    Hickey, K.
    Jonsson, T.
    Luterbacher, J.
    Nordli, O.
    Oesterle, H.
    Petrakis, M.
    Philipp, A.
    Rodwell, M. J.
    Saladie, O.
    Sigro, J.
    Slonosky, V.
    Srnec, L.
    Swail, V.
    Garcia-Suarez, A. M.
    Tuomenvirta, H.
    Wang, X.
    Wanner, H.
    Werner, P.
    Wheeler, D.
    Xoplaki, E.
    Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European-North Atlantic region for the period 1850-20032006In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 19, no 12, p. 2717-2742Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The development of a daily historical European-North Atlantic mean sea level pressure dataset (EMSLP) for 1850-2003 on a 5 latitude by longitude grid is described. This product was produced using 86 continental and island stations distributed over the region 25 degrees-70 degrees N, 70 degrees W-50 degrees E blended with marine data from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). The EMSLP fields for 1850-80 are based purely on the land station data and ship observations. From 1881, the blended land and marine fields are combined with already available daily Northern Hemisphere fields. Complete coverage is obtained by employing reduced space optimal interpolation. Squared correlations (r(2)) indicate that EMSLP generally captures 80%-90% of daily variability represented in an existing historical mean sea level pressure product and over 90% in modern 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analyses (ERA-40) over most of the region. A lack of sufficient observations over Greenland and the Middle East, however, has resulted in poorer reconstructions there. Error estimates, produced as part of the reconstruction technique, flag these as regions of low confidence. It is shown that the EMSLP daily fields and associated error estimates provide a unique opportunity to examine the circulation patterns associated with extreme events across the European-North Atlantic region, such as the 2003 heat wave, in the context of historical events.

  • 17. Bais, A F
    et al.
    Gardiner, B G
    Slaper, H
    Blumthaler, M
    Bernhard, G
    McKenzie, R
    Webb, A R
    Seckmeyer, G
    Kjeldstad, B
    Koskela, T
    Kirsch, P J
    Grobner, J
    Kerr, J B
    Kazadzis, S
    Leszczynski, K
    Wardle, D
    Josefsson, Weine
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Brogniez, C
    Gillotay, D
    Reinen, H
    Weihs, P
    Svenoe, T
    Eriksen, P
    Kuik, F
    Redondas, A
    SUSPEN intercomparison of ultraviolet spectroradiometers2001In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 106, no D12, p. 12509-12525Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Results from an intercomparison campaign of ultraviolet spectroradiometers that was organized at Nea Michaniona, Greece July, 1-13 1997, are presented. Nineteen instrument systems from 15 different countries took part and provided spectra of global solar UV irradiance for two consecutive days from sunrise to sunset every half hour. No data exchange was allowed between participants in order to achieve absolutely independent results among the instruments. The data analysis procedure included the determination of wavelength shifts and the application of suitable corrections to the measured spectra, their standardization to common spectral resolution of 1 nm full width at half maximum and the application of cosine corrections. Reference spectra were calculated for each observational time, derived for a set of instruments which were objectively selected and used as comparison norms for the assessment of the relative agreement among the various instruments. With regard to the absolute irradiance measurements, the range of the deviations from the reference for all spectra was within +/- 20%. About half of the instruments agreed to within +/-5%, while only three fell outside the +/- 10% agreement limit. As for the accuracy of the wavelength registration of the recorded spectra, for most of the spectroradiometers (14) the calculated wavelength shifts were smaller than 0.2 nm. The overall outcome of the campaign was very encouraging, as it was proven that the agreement among the majority of the instruments was good and comparable to the commonly accepted uncertainties of spectral UV measurements. In addition, many of the instruments provided consistent results relative to at least the previous two intercomparison campaigns, held in 1995 in Ispra, Italy and in 1993 in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. As a result of this series of intercomparison campaigns, several of the currently operating spectroradiometers operating may be regarded as a core group Of instruments, which with the employment of proper operational procedures are capable of providing quality spectral solar UV measurements.

  • 18. Baron, P.
    et al.
    Murtagh, D. P.
    Urban, J.
    Sagawa, H.
    Ochiai, S.
    Kasai, Y.
    Kikuchi, K.
    Khosrawi, F.
    Körnich, Heiner
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Mizobuchi, S.
    Sagi, K.
    Yasui, M.
    Observation of horizontal winds in the middle-atmosphere between 30 degrees S and 55 degrees N during the northern winter 2009-20102013In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 13, no 12, p. 6049-6064Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the links between stratospheric dynamics, climate and weather have been demonstrated, direct observations of stratospheric winds are lacking, in particular at altitudes above 30 km. We report observations of winds between 8 and 0.01 hPa (similar to 35-80 km) from October 2009 to April 2010 by the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) on the International Space Station. The altitude range covers the region between 35-60 km where previous space-borne wind instruments show a lack of sensitivity. Both zonal and meridional wind components were obtained, though not simultaneously, in the latitude range from 30 degrees S to 55 degrees N and with a single profile precision of 7-9 ms(-1) between 8 and 0.6 hPa and better than 20 ms(-1) at altitudes above. The vertical resolution is 5-7 km except in the upper part of the retrieval range (10 km at 0.01 hPa). In the region between 1-0.05 hPa, an absolute value of the mean difference <2 ms(-1) is found between SMILES profiles retrieved from different spectroscopic lines and instrumental settings. Good agreement (absolute value of the mean difference of similar to 2 ms(-1)) is also found with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis in most of the stratosphere except for the zonal winds over the equator (difference >5 ms(-1)). In the mesosphere, SMILES and ECMWF zonal winds exhibit large differences (>20 ms(-1)), especially in the tropics. We illustrate our results by showing daily and monthly zonal wind variations, namely the semi-annual oscillation in the tropics and reversals of the flow direction between 50-55 degrees N during sudden stratospheric warmings. The daily comparison with ECMWF winds reveals that in the beginning of February, a significantly stronger zonal westward flow is measured in the tropics at 2 hPa compared to the flow computed in the analysis (difference of similar to 20 ms(-1)). The results show that the comparison between SMILES and ECMWF winds is not only relevant for the quality assessment of the new SMILES winds, but it also provides insights on the quality of the ECMWF winds themselves. Although the instrument was not specifically designed for measuring winds, the results demonstrate that space-borne sub-mm wave radiometers have the potential to provide good quality data for improving the stratospheric winds in atmospheric models.

  • 19. Barthelmie, R
    et al.
    Larsen, G
    Pryor, S
    Jorgensen, H
    Bergstrom, H
    Schlez, W
    Rados, K
    Lange, B
    Volund, P
    Neckelmann, S
    Mogensen, S
    Schepers, G
    Hegberg, T
    Folkerts, L
    Magnusson, Mikael
    SMHI, Core Services.
    ENDOW (Efficient development of offshore wind farms): Modelling wake and boundary layer interactions2004In: Wind Energy, ISSN 1095-4244, E-ISSN 1099-1824, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 225-245Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    While experience gained through the offshore wind energy projects currently operating is valuable, a major uncertainty in estimating power production lies in the prediction of the dynamic links between the atmosphere and wind turbines in offshore regimes. The objective of the ENDOW project was to evaluate, enhance and interface wake and boundary layer models for utilization offshore. The project resulted in a significant advance in the state of the art in both wake and marine boundary layer models, leading to improved prediction of wind speed and turbulence profiles within large offshore wind farms. Use of new databases from existing offshore wind farms and detailed wake profiles collected using sodar provided a unique opportunity to undertake the first comprehensive evaluation of wake models in the offshore environment. The results of wake model performance in different wind speed, stability and roughness conditions relative to observations provided criteria for their improvement. Mesoscale model simulations were used to evaluate the impact of thermal flows, roughness and topography on offshore wind speeds. The model hierarchy developed under ENDOW forms the basis of design tools for use by wind energy developers and turbine manufacturers to optimize power output from offshore wind farms through minimized wake effects and optimal grid connections. The design tools are being built onto existing regional-scale models and wind farm design software which was developed with EU funding and is in use currently by wind energy developers. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

  • 20. Bech, J.
    et al.
    Gjertsen, U.
    Haase, Gunther
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Modelling weather radar beam propagation and topographical blockage at northern high latitudes2007In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 133, no 626, p. 1191-1204Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes a study to evaluate the variability of radio-propagation conditions and to assess their effects upon weather-radar beam blockage corrections for precipitation estimates. Radiosonde observations are examined in order to analyse the propagation conditions at several locations covered by the Nordic Weather Radar Network (NORDRAD). A beam-propagation model is used to simulate the interaction between the radar beam and the topography and to derive correction factors. The model is applied to correct yearly accumulations, assuming standard radio-propagation conditions, and is also used to examine case studies in detail under various propagation conditions. The correction reduces the bias between yearly radar precipitation estimates and gauge records by 1 dB for moderate blockages (1% to 50%), and by up to 3 dB for severe blockages (50% to 70%). The case studies indicate that HIRLAM forecasts show potential to predict the radar coverage and the associated ground- and sea-clutter patterns. This research aims at determining a beam-blockage-correction algorithm to be used within the NORDRAD quality-control system. This is particularly useful for obtaining radar precipitation estimates in environments with complex topography. Copyright (C) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.

  • 21.
    Bengtsson,, Lennart
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Döös, Bo
    SMHI.
    Söderman, Daniel
    Helsinki University in Finland.
    Moen, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Thompson, Thomas
    SMHI.
    Jakobsson, Paul
    SMHI.
    Bleckert, Gunnar
    SMHI.
    Henriksson, Ann-Beate
    SMHI.
    Lindgren, Bo
    SMHI.
    Kållberg, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    The Meteorological Auto Code (MAC) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at SMHI2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sweden was a pioneering country in the development of NumericalWeather Prediction (NWP). The worlds first operational numerical forecast was produced already in 1954 by the International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm. SMHI started a bit later, but in 1961 a long term program for development of NWP was initiated. The activities grew gradually during the 1960’s and resulted in a core component for the SMHI forecast services. An early challenge was to overcome the limited computational resources with slow computational speed, small memory size and primitive software support. It was necessary to compensate for these limitations with dedicated work and creativity. A core component in this work was the software system MAC (Meteorological Auto Code) that was developed by the NWP group at SMHI. The MAC system is described in detail in this report and it included all computational software needed for the weather service, for example numerical models, objective analysis techniques, automatic data extraction, quality control of observations as well as forecast products in graphical or digital form.

    We hope that this report will provide the younger generation with some insight into the conditions for development of NWP during the 1960’s.

  • 22.
    Bengtsson, Lisa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Andrae, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Aspelien, Trygve
    SMHI.
    Batrak, Yurii
    Calvo, Javier
    de Rooy, Wim
    Gleeson, Emily
    Hansen-Sass, Bent
    Homleid, Mariken
    Hortal, Mariano
    Ivarsson, Karl-Ivar
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Lenderink, Geert
    Niemelza, Sami
    Nielsen, Kristian Pagh
    Onvlee, Jeanette
    Rontu, Laura
    SMHI.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Santos Munoz, Daniel
    Subias, Alvaro
    Tijm, Sander
    Toll, Velle
    Yang, Xiaohua
    Koltzow, Morten Odegaard
    The HARMONIE-AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP System2017In: Monthly Weather Review, ISSN 0027-0644, E-ISSN 1520-0493, Vol. 145, no 5, p. 1919-1935Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 23.
    Bengtsson, Lisa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Körnich, Heiner
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Impact of a stochastic parametrization of cumulus convection, using cellular automata, in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system2016In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, no 695, p. 1150-1159Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A stochastic parametrization for deep convection, based on cellular automata, has been evaluated in the high-resolution (2.5 km) ensemble prediction system Hirlam Aladin Regional Mesoscale Operational NWP Ensemble Prediction System (HarmonEPS). We studied whether such a stochastic physical parametrization, whilst implemented in a deterministic forecast model, can have an impact on the performance of the uncertainty estimates given by an ensemble prediction system. Various feedback mechanisms in the parametrization were studied with respect to ensemble spread and skill, in both subgrid and resolved precipitation fields. It was found that the stochastic parametrization improves the model skill in general, by reducing a positive bias in precipitation. This reduction in bias, however, led to a reduction in ensemble spread of precipitation. Overall, scores that measure the accuracy and reliability of probabilistic predictions indicate that the net impact (improved skill, degraded spread) of the ensemble prediction system is improved for 6 h accumulated precipitation with the stochastic parametrization and is rather neutral for other quantities examined.

  • 24.
    Bengtsson, Lisa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Körnich, Heiner
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Kaellen, Erland
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Large-Scale Dynamical Response to Subgrid-Scale Organization Provided by Cellular Automata2011In: Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, ISSN 0022-4928, E-ISSN 1520-0469, Vol. 68, no 12, p. 3132-3144Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Because of the limited resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, subgrid-scale physical processes are parameterized and represented by gridbox means. However, some physical processes are better represented by a mean and its variance; a typical example is deep convection, with scales varying from individual updrafts to organized mesoscale systems. This study investigates, in an idealized setting, whether a cellular automaton (CA) can be used to enhance subgrid-scale organization by forming clusters representative of the convective scales and thus yield a stochastic representation of subgrid-scale variability. The authors study the transfer of energy from the convective to the larger atmospheric scales through nonlinear wave interactions. This is done using a shallow water (SW) model initialized with equatorial wave modes. By letting a CA act on a finer resolution than that of the SW model, it can be expected to mimic the effect of, for instance, gravity wave propagation on convective organization. Employing the CA scheme permits the reproduction of the observed behavior of slowing down equatorial Kelvin modes in convectively active regions, while random perturbations fail to feed back on the large-scale flow. The analysis of kinetic energy spectra demonstrates that the CA subgrid scheme introduces energy backscatter from the smallest model scales to medium scales. However, the amount of energy backscattered depends almost solely on the memory time scale introduced to the subgrid scheme, whereas any variation in spatial scales generated does not influence the energy spectra markedly.

  • 25.
    Bengtsson, Lisa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Magnusson, Linus
    Källén, Erland
    Independent Estimations of the Asymptotic Variability in an Ensemble Forecast System2008In: Monthly Weather Review, ISSN 0027-0644, E-ISSN 1520-0493, Vol. 136, no 11, p. 4105-4112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    One desirable property within an ensemble forecast system is to have a one-to-one ratio between the root-mean-square error (rmse) of the ensemble mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble (spread). The ensemble spread and forecast error within the ECMWF ensemble prediction system has been extrapolated beyond 10 forecast days using a simple model for error growth. The behavior of the ensemble spread and the rmse at the time of the deterministic predictability are compared with derived relations of rmse at the infinite forecast length and the characteristic variability of the atmosphere in the limit of deterministic predictability. Utilizing this methodology suggests that the forecast model and the atmosphere do not have the same variability, which raises the question of how to obtain a perfect ensemble.

  • 26.
    Bengtsson, Lisa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Steinheimer, Martin
    Bechtold, Peter
    Geleyn, Jean-Francois
    A stochastic parametrization for deep convection using cellular automata2013In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 139, no 675, p. 1533-1543Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A cellular automaton (CA) is introduced to the deep convection parametrization of the high-resolution limited-area model Aire Limitee Adaptation/Application de la Recherche a l'Operationnel (ALARO). The self-organizational characteristics of the CA allow for lateral communication between adjacent numerical weather prediction (NWP) model grid boxes and add additional memory to the deep convection scheme. The CA acts in two horizontal dimensions, with finer grid spacing than the NWP model. It is randomly seeded in regions where convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeds a threshold value. Both deterministic and probabilistic rules, coupled to the large-scale wind, are explored to evolve the CA in time. Case studies indicate that the scheme has the potential to organize cells along convective squall lines and enhance advective effects. An ensemble of forecasts using the present CA scheme demonstrated an ensemble spread in the resolved wind field in regions where deep convection is large. Such a spread represents the uncertainty due to subgrid variability of deep convection and could be an interesting addition to an ensemble prediction system.

  • 27.
    Bengtsson, Lisa
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Tijm, Sander
    Vana, Filip
    Svensson, Gunilla
    Impact of Flow-Dependent Horizontal Diffusion on Resolved Convection in AROME2012In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, ISSN 1558-8424, E-ISSN 1558-8432, Vol. 51, no 1, p. 54-67Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Horizontal diffusion in numerical weather prediction models is, in general, applied to reduce numerical noise at the smallest atmospheric scales. In convection-permitting models, with horizontal grid spacing on the order of 1-3 km, horizontal diffusion can improve the model skill of physical parameters such as convective precipitation. For instance, studies using the convection-permitting Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale model (AROME) have shown an improvement in forecasts of large precipitation amounts when horizontal diffusion is applied to falling hydrometeors. The nonphysical nature of such a procedure is undesirable, however. Within the current AROME, horizontal diffusion is imposed using linear spectral horizontal diffusion on dynamical model fields. This spectral diffusion is complemented by nonlinear, flow-dependent, horizontal diffusion applied on turbulent kinetic energy, cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel. In this study, nonlinear flow-dependent diffusion is applied to the dynamical model fields rather than diffusing the already predicted falling hydrometeors. In particular, the characteristics of deep convection are investigated. Results indicate that, for the same amount of diffusive damping, the maximum convective updrafts remain strong for both the current and proposed methods of horizontal diffusion. Diffusing the falling hydrometeors is necessary to see a reduction in rain intensity, but a more physically justified solution can be obtained by increasing the amount of damping on the smallest atmospheric scales using the nonlinear, flow-dependent, diffusion scheme. In doing so, a reduction in vertical velocity was found, resulting in a reduction in maximum rain intensity.

  • 28. Bennartz, R
    et al.
    Thoss, Anke
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Dybbroe, Adam
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Michelson, Daniel
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Precipitation analysis using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit in support of nowcasting applications2002In: Meteorological Applications, ISSN 1350-4827, E-ISSN 1469-8080, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 177-189Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We describe a method to remotely sense precipitation and classify its intensity over water, coasts and land surfaces. This method is intended to be used in an operational nowcasting environment. It is based on data obtained from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) onboard NOAA-15. Each observation is assigned a probability of belonging to four classes: precipitation-free, risk of precipitation, precipitation between 0.5 and 5 mm/h, and precipitation higher than 5 mm/h. Since the method is designed to work over different surface types, it relies mainly on the scattering signal of precipitation-sized ice particles received at high frequencies. For the calibration and validation of the method we use an eight-month dataset of combined weather radar and AMSU data obtained over the Baltic area. We compare results for the AMSU-B channels at 89 GHz and 150 GHz and find that the high frequency channel at 150 GHz allows for a much better discrimination of different types of precipitation than the 89 GHz channel. While precipitation-free areas, as well as heavily precipitating areas (> 5 mm/h), can be identified to high accuracy, the intermediate classes are more ambiguous. This stems from the ambiguity of the passive microwave observations as well as from the non-perfect matching of the different data sources and sub-optimal radar adjustment. In addition to a statistical assessment of the method's accuracy, we present case studies to demonstrate its capabilities to classify different types of precipitation and to work over highly structured, inhomogeneous surfaces.

  • 29. Bennartz, Ralf
    et al.
    Hoschen, Heidrun
    Picard, Bruno
    Schroder, Marc
    Stengel, Martin
    Sus, Oliver
    Bojkov, Bojan
    Casadio, Stefano
    Diedrich, Hannes
    Eliasson, Salomon
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Fell, Frank
    Fischer, Jurgen
    Hollmann, Rainer
    Preusker, Rene
    Willén, Ulrika
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    An intercalibrated dataset of total column water vapour and wet tropospheric correction based on MWR on board ERS-1, ERS-2, and Envisat2017In: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, ISSN 1867-1381, E-ISSN 1867-8548, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 1387-1402Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 30. Berner, Judith
    et al.
    Achatz, Ulrich
    Batte, Lauriane
    Bengtsson, Lisa
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    de la Camara, Alvaro
    Christensen, Hannah M.
    Colangeli, Matteo
    Coleman, Danielle R. B.
    Crommelin, Daaaan
    Dolaptchiev, Stamen I.
    Franzke, Christian L. E.
    Friederichs, Petra
    Imkeller, Peter
    Jarvinen, Heikki
    Juricke, Stephan
    Kitsios, Vassili
    Lott, Francois
    Lucarini, Valerio
    Mahajan, Salil
    Palmer, Timothy N.
    Penland, Cecile
    Sakradzija, Mirjana
    von Storch, Jin-Song
    Weisheimer, Antje
    Weniger, Michael
    Williams, Paul D.
    Yano, Jun-Ichi
    STOCHASTIC PARAMETERIZATION Toward a New View of Weather and Climate Models2017In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 98, no 3, p. 565-587Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 31.
    Berre, Loik
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Estimation of synoptic and mesoscale forecast error covariances in a limited-area model2000In: Monthly Weather Review, ISSN 0027-0644, E-ISSN 1520-0493, Vol. 128, no 3, p. 644-667Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Statistical and balance features of forecast errors are generally incorporated in the background constraint of variational data assimilation. Forecast error covariances are here estimated with a spectral approach and from a set of forecast differences; autocovariances are calculated with a nonseparable scheme, and multiple linear regressions are used in the formulation of cross covariances. Such an approach was first developed for global models; it is here adapted to ALADIN, a bi-Fourier high-resolution limited-area model, and extended to a multivariate study of humidity forecast errors. Results for autocovariances confirm the importance of nonseparability, in terms of both vertical variability of horizontal correlations and dependence of vertical correlations with horizontal scale; high-resolution spatial correlations are obtained, which should enable a high-resolution analysis. Moreover nonnegligible relationships are found between forecast errors of humidity and those of mass and wind fields.

  • 32. Birch, C. E.
    et al.
    Brooks, I. M.
    Tjernstrom, M.
    Shupe, M. D.
    Mauritsen, T.
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Lock, A. P.
    Earnshaw, P.
    Persson, P. O. G.
    Milton, S. F.
    Leck, C.
    Modelling atmospheric structure, cloud and their response to CCN in the central Arctic: ASCOS case studies2012In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 12, no 7, p. 3419-3435Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Observations made during late summer in the central Arctic Ocean, as part of the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), are used to evaluate cloud and vertical temperature structure in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The observation period can be split into 5 regimes; the first two regimes had a large number of frontal systems, which were associated with deep cloud. During the remainder of the campaign a layer of low-level cloud occurred, typical of central Arctic summer conditions, along with two periods of greatly reduced cloud cover. The short-range operational NWP forecasts could not accurately reproduce the observed variations in near-surface temperature. A major source of this error was found to be the temperature-dependant surface albedo parameterisation scheme. The model reproduced the low-level cloud layer, though it was too thin, too shallow, and in a boundary-layer that was too frequently well-mixed. The model was also unable to reproduce the observed periods of reduced cloud cover, which were associated with very low cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations (< 1 cm(-3)). As with most global NWP models, the MetUM does not have a prognostic aerosol/cloud scheme but uses a constant CCN concentration of 100 cm(-3) over all marine environments. It is therefore unable to represent the low CCN number concentrations and the rapid variations in concentration frequently observed in the central Arctic during late summer. Experiments with a single-column model configuration of the MetUM show that reducing model CCN number concentrations to observed values reduces the amount of cloud, increases the near-surface stability, and improves the representation of both the surface radiation fluxes and the surface temperature. The model is shown to be sensitive to CCN only when number concentrations are less than 10-20 cm(-3).

  • 33. Blazica, V.
    et al.
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Zagar, N.
    The impact of periodization methods on the kinetic energy spectra for limited-area numerical weather prediction models2015In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 87-97Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper deals with the comparison of the most common periodization methods used to obtain spectral fields of limited-area models for numerical weather prediction. The focus is on the impact that the methods have on the spectra of the fields, which are used for verification and tuning of the models. A simplified model is applied with random fields that obey a known kinetic energy spectrum. The periodization methods under consideration are detrending, the discrete cosine transform and the application of an extension zone. For the extension zone, three versions are applied: the Boyd method, the ALADIN method and the HIRLAM method. The results show that detrending and the discrete cosine transform have little impact on the spectra, as does the Boyd method for extension zone. For the ALADIN and HIRLAM methods, the impact depends on the width of the extension zone - the wider the zone, the more artificial energy and the larger impact on the spectra. The width of the extension zone correlates to the modifications in the shape of the spectra as well as to the amplitudes of the additional energy in the spectra.

  • 34. Bojarova, Jelena
    et al.
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Johansson, Åke
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Vignes, Ole
    The ETKF rescaling scheme in HIRLAM2011In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 63, no 3, p. 385-401Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The ETKF rescaling scheme has been implemented into the HIRLAM forecasting system in order to estimate the uncertainty of the model state. The main purpose is to utilize this uncertainty information for modelling of flow-dependent background error covariances within the framework of a hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation scheme. The effects of rank-deficiency in the ETKF formulation is explained and the need for variance inflation as a way to compensate for these effects is justified. A filter spin-up algorithm is proposed as a refinement of the variance inflation. The proposed spin-up algorithm will also act to prevent ensemble collapse since the ensemble will receive 'fresh blood' in the form of additional perturbation components, generated on the basis of a static background error covariance matrix. The resulting ETKF-based ensemble perturbations are compared with ensemble perturbations based on targeted singular vectors and are shown to have more realistic spectral characteristics.

  • 35. Bolin, Karl
    et al.
    Almgren, Martin
    Olsson, Esbjörn
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Karasalo, Ilkka
    Long term estimations of low frequency noise levels over water from an off-shore wind farm2014In: Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, ISSN 0001-4966, E-ISSN 1520-8524, Vol. 135, no 3, p. 1106-1114Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article focuses on computations of low frequency sound propagation from an off-shore wind farm. Two different methods for sound propagation calculations are combined with meteorological data for every 3 hours in the year 2010 to examine the varying noise levels at a reception point at 13 km distance. It is shown that sound propagation conditions play a vital role in the noise impact from the off-shore wind farm and ordinary assessment methods can become inaccurate at longer propagation distances over water. Therefore, this paper suggests that methodologies to calculate noise immission with realistic sound speed profiles need to be combined with meteorological data over extended time periods to evaluate the impact of low frequency noise from modern off-shore wind farms. (C) 2014 Acoustical Society of America.

  • 36. Borsche, M.
    et al.
    Kaiser-Weiss, A. K.
    Undén, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Kaspar, F.
    Methodologies to characterize uncertainties in regional reanalyses2015In: Advances in Science and Research, ISSN 1992-0628, E-ISSN 1992-0636, Vol. 12, p. 207-218Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When using climate data for various applications, users are confronted with the difficulty to assess the uncertainties of the data. For both in-situ and remote sensing data the issues of representativeness, homogeneity, and coverage have to be considered for the past, and their respective change over time has to be considered for any interpretation of trends. A synthesis of observations can be obtained by employing data assimilation with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models resulting in a meteorological reanalysis. Global reanalyses can be used as boundary conditions for regional reanalyses (RRAs), which run in a limited area (Europe in our case) with higher spatial and temporal resolution, and allow for assimilation of more regionally representative observations. With the spatially highly resolved RRAs, which exhibit smaller scale information, a more realistic representation of extreme events (e.g. of precipitation) compared to global reanalyses is aimed for. In this study, we discuss different methods for quantifying the uncertainty of the RRAs to answer the question to which extent the smaller scale information (or resulting statistics) provided by the RRAs can be relied on. Within the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA) ensembles of RRAs (both multi-model and single model ensembles) are produced and their uncertainties are quantified. Here we explore the following methods for characterizing the uncertainties of the RRAs: (A) analyzing the feedback statistics of the assimilation systems, (B) validation against station measurements and (C) grids derived thereof, and (D) against gridded satellite data products. The RRA ensembles (E) provide the opportunity to derive ensemble scores like ensemble spread and other special probabilistic skill scores. Finally, user applications (F) are considered. The various methods are related to user questions they can help to answer.

  • 37. Bourgeois, Quentin
    et al.
    Ekman, Annica M. L.
    Renard, Jean-Baptiste
    Krejci, Radovan
    Devasthale, Abhay
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Bender, Frida A. -M.
    Riipinen, Ilona
    Berthet, Gwenael
    Tackett, Jason L.
    How much of the global aerosol optical depth is found in the boundary layer and free troposphere?2018In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 18, no 10, p. 7709-7720Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 38.
    Bringfelt, Björn
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Heikinheimo, M
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Perov, Veniamin
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Lindroth, A
    A new land-surface treatment for HIRLAM - comparisons with NOPEX measurements1999In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, ISSN 0168-1923, E-ISSN 1873-2240, Vol. 98-9, p. 239-256Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting near-surface atmospheric variables over a heterogeneous landscape, a framework of subgrid surface types and the ISBA parameterisation scheme for land surfaces have been tested in the operational weather forecast model HIRLAM, using a 5.5 km grid resolution. Surface energy fluxes measured during a single summer day at six fixed sites in the NOPEX area, representing agricultural fields, boreal forests and lakes, were used for verification. Both, in-situ field measurements and the HIRLAM simulation indicated that the Bowen ratio over forests was about twice as large as that of adjacent agricultural fields. This difference could be explained by the more effective turbulent mixing and larger surface resistance associated with the forest, thus making the sensible heat flux relatively large there. The use of initial soil moisture from a routine hydrological model gave improved agreement with measured surface fluxes and radiosonde temperature and humidity profiles compared to initialising from routine HIRLAM surface data. The differences in heat fluxes between the various surface types were also demonstrated by airborne flux measurements flown along a track at a height of ca. 100 m above the terrain. Modelled heat fluxes along the flight track were considerably smoothed due to the grid resolution used, e.g. the effect of a lake in reducing grid-averaged sensible heat flux could only be weakly detected, because the lake surface represented only 10% of the grid area. When the proportion of a contrasting surface type (lake) was altered from 10 to 100%, the surface fluxes calculated for the lake surface were almost unchanged; the results of the comparison did not provide evidence that more complex aggregation schemes for heat fluxes than straightforward area-weighted averaging would be required. The hourly variation of the modelled and simulated heat fluxes during the day studied could not be directly compared, because the simulated cloudiness did not exactly match that observed at the field sites. When the simulated net radiation was replaced with direct measurements, the model-based estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes were closer to the corresponding field measurements. The divergence of sensible heat flux with height, as inferred from the tower measurements made over the forest, were supported by the aircraft measurements and the HIRLAM simulations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 39. Brooks, Ian M.
    et al.
    Tjernstrom, Michael
    Persson, P. Ola G.
    Shupe, Matthew D.
    Atkinson, Rebecca A.
    Canut, Guylaine
    Birch, Cathryn E.
    Mauritsen, Thorsten
    Sedlar, Joseph
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Brooks, Barbara J.
    The Turbulent Structure of the Arctic Summer Boundary Layer During The Arctic Summer Cloud-Ocean Study2017In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 122, no 18, p. 9685-9704Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 40.
    Carlund, Thomas
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Kouremeti, Natalia
    Kazadzis, Stelios
    Grobner, Julian
    Aerosol optical depth determination in the UV using a four-channel precision filter radiometer2017In: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, ISSN 1867-1381, E-ISSN 1867-8548, Vol. 10, no 3, p. 905-923Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 41.
    Carlund, Thomas
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Landelius, Tomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Josefsson, Weine
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Comparison and uncertainty of aerosol optical depth estimates derived from spectral and broadband measurements2003In: Journal of applied meteorology (1988), ISSN 0894-8763, E-ISSN 1520-0450, Vol. 42, no 11, p. 1598-1610Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An experimental comparison of spectral aerosol optical depth tau(a,lambda) derived from measurements by two spectral radiometers [a LI-COR, Inc., LI-1800 spectroradiometer and a Centre Suisse d'Electronique et de Microtechnique (CSEM) SPM2000 sun photometer] and a broadband field pyrheliometer has been made. The study was limited to three wavelengths ( 368, 500, and 778 nm), using operational calibration and optical depth calculation procedures. For measurements taken on 32 days spread over 1 yr, the rms difference in tau(a,lambda) derived from the two spectral radiometers was less than 0.01 at 500 and 778 nm. For wavelengths shorter than 500 nm and longer than 950 nm, the performance of the LI-1800 in its current configuration did not permit accurate determinations of tau(a,lambda). Estimates of spectral aerosol optical depth from broadband pyrheliometer measurements using two models of the Angstromngstrom turbidity coefficient were examined. For the broadband method that was closest to the sun photometer results, the mean (rms) differences in tau(a,lambda) were 0.014 (0.028), 0.014 (0.019), and 0.013 ( 0.014) at 368, 500, and 778 nm. The mean differences are just above the average uncertainties of the sun photometer tau(a,lambda) values (0.012, 0.011, and 0.011) for the same wavelengths, as determined through a detailed uncertainty analysis. The amount of atmospheric water vapor is a necessary input to the broadband methods. If upper-air sounding data are not available, water vapor from a meteorological forecast model yields significantly better turbidity results than does using estimates from surface measurements of air temperature and relative humidity.

  • 42. Chen, Hans W.
    et al.
    Zhang, Qiong
    Körnich, Heiner
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Chen, Deliang
    A robust mode of climate variability in the Arctic: The Barents Oscillation2013In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 40, no 11, p. 2856-2861Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Barents Oscillation (BO) is an anomalous wintertime atmospheric circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere that has been linked to the meridional flow over the Nordic Seas. There are speculations that the BO has important implications for the Arctic climate; however, it has also been suggested that the pattern is an artifact of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis due to an eastward shift of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). In this study, EOF analyses are performed to show that a robust pattern resembling the BO can be found during different time periods, even when the AO/NAO is relatively stationary. This BO has a high and stable temporal correlation with the geostrophic zonal wind over the Barents Sea, while the contribution from the AO/NAO is small. The surface air temperature anomalies over the Barents Sea are closely associated with this mode of climate variability.

  • 43. Cheymol, Anne
    et al.
    De Backer, Hugo
    Josefsson, Weine
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Stuebi, Rene
    Comparison and validation of the aerosol optical depth obtained with the Langley plot method in the UV-B from Brewer Ozone Spectrophotometer measurements2006In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 111, no D16, article id D16202Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    [ 1] The Aerosol Optical Depths (AODs) retrieved from Brewer Ozone Spectrophotometer measurements with a method previously developed (Cheymol and De Backer, 2003) are now validated by comparisons between AODs from six Brewer spectrophotometers and two CSEM SPM2000 sunphotometers: two Brewer spectrophotometers 016 and 178 at Uccle in Belgium; one Brewer spectrophotometer 128 and one sunphotometer CSEM SPM2000 at Norrkoping in Sweden; and three Brewer instruments 040, 072, 156 at Arosa and one CSEM SPM2000 sunphotometer at Davos in Switzerland. The comparison between AODs from Brewer spectrophotometer 128 at 320.1 nm and sunphotometer SPM2000 at 368 nm at Norrkoping shows that the AODs obtained from the Brewer measurements with the Langley Plot Method (LPM) are very accurate if the neutral density filter spectral transmittances are well known: with the measured values of these filters, the correlation coefficient, the slope, and the intercept of the regression line are 0.98, 0.85 +/- 0.004, and 0.02 +/- 0.0014, respectively. The bias observed is mainly owing to the wavelength difference between the two instruments. The comparison between AODs from different Brewer spectrophotometers confirm that AODs will be in very good agreement if they are measured with several Brewer instruments at the same place: At Uccle, the correlation coefficient, slope, and intercept of the regression line are 0.98, 1.02 +/- 0.003, and 0.06 +/- 0.001, respectively; at Arosa, the comparisons between the AODs from three Brewer spectrophotometers 040, 072, and 156 give a correlation coefficient, a slope, and an intercept of the regression line above 0.94, 0.98 and below 0.04, respectively.

  • 44. Cuxart, J
    et al.
    Holtslag, A A M
    Beare, R J
    Bazile, E
    Beljaars, A
    Cheng, A
    Conangla, L
    Ek, M
    Freedman, F
    Hamdi, R
    Kerstein, A
    Kitagawa, H
    Lenderink, G
    Lewellen, D
    Mailhot, J
    Mauritsen, T
    Perov, Veniamin
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Schayes, G
    Steeneveld, G J
    Svensson, G
    Taylor, P
    Weng, W
    Wunsch, S
    Xu, K M
    Single-column model intercomparison for a stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer2006In: Boundary-layer Meteorology, ISSN 0006-8314, E-ISSN 1573-1472, Vol. 118, no 2, p. 273-303Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The parameterization of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer is a difficult issue, having a significant impact on medium-range weather forecasts and climate integrations. To pursue this further, a moderately stratified Arctic case is simulated by nineteen single-column turbulence schemes. Statistics from a large-eddy simulation intercomparison made for the same case by eleven different models are used as a guiding reference. The single-column parameterizations include research and operational schemes from major forecast and climate research centres. Results from first-order schemes, a large number of turbulence kinetic energy closures, and other models were used. There is a large spread in the results; in general, the operational schemes mix over a deeper layer than the research schemes, and the turbulence kinetic energy and other higher-order closures give results closer to the statistics obtained from the large-eddy simulations. The sensitivities of the schemes to the parameters of their turbulence closures are partially explored.

  • 45.
    Dahlgren, Per
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Assimilating host model information into a limited area model2012In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 64, article id 15836Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose to add an extra source of information to the data-assimilation of the regional HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) model, constraining larger scales to the host model providing the lateral boundary conditions. An extra term, J(k), measuring the distance to the large-scale vorticity of the host model, is added to the cost-function of the variational data-assimilation. Vorticity is chosen because it is a good representative of the large-scale flow and because vorticity is a basic control variable of the HIRLAM variational data-assimilation. Furthermore, by choosing only vorticity, the remaining model variables, divergence, temperature, surface pressure and specific humidity will be allowed to adapt to the modified vorticity field in accordance with the internal balance constraints of the regional model. The error characteristics of the J(k) term are described by the horizontal spectral densities and the vertical eigenmodes (eigenvectors and eigenvalues) of the host model vorticity forecast error fields, expressed in the regional model geometry. The vorticity field, provided by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model, was assimilated into the HIRLAM model during an experiment period of 33 d in winter with positive impact on forecast verification statistics for upper air variables and mean sea level pressure.

  • 46.
    Dahlgren, Per
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Landelius, Tomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Kållberg, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Gollvik, Stefan
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    A high-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe. Part 1: Three-dimensional reanalysis with the regional HIgh-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM)2016In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, no 698, p. 2119-2131Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 47. de Brugh, J. M. J. Aan
    et al.
    Schaap, M.
    Vignati, E.
    Dentener, F.
    Kahnert, Michael
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Sofiev, M.
    Huijnen, V.
    Krol, M. C.
    The European aerosol budget in 20062011In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 11, no 3, p. 1117-1139Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents the aerosol budget over Europe in 2006 calculated with the global transport model TM5 coupled to the size-resolved aerosol module M7. Comparison with ground observations indicates that the model reproduces the observed concentrations quite well with an expected slight underestimation of PM10 due to missing emissions (e.g. resuspension). We model that a little less than half of the anthropogenic aerosols emitted in Europe are exported and the rest is removed by deposition. The anthropogenic aerosols are removed mostly by rain (95%) and only 5% is removed by dry deposition. For the larger natural aerosols, especially sea salt, a larger fraction is removed by dry processes (sea salt: 70%, mineral dust: 35%). We model transport of aerosols in the jet stream in the higher atmosphere and an import of Sahara dust from the south at high altitudes. Comparison with optical measurements shows that the model reproduces the Angstrom parameter very well, which indicates a correct simulation of the aerosol size distribution. However, we underestimate the aerosol optical depth. Because the surface concentrations are close to the observations, the shortage of aerosol in the model is probably at higher altitudes. We show that the discrepancies are mainly caused by an overestimation of wet-removal rates. To match the observations, the wet-removal rates have to be scaled down by a factor of about 5. In that case the modelled ground-level concentrations of sulphate and sea salt increase by 50% (which deteriorates the match), while other components stay roughly the same. Finally, it is shown that in particular events, improved fire emission estimates may significantly improve the ability of the model to simulate the aerosol optical depth. We stress that discrepancies in aerosol models can be adequately analysed if all models would provide (regional) aerosol budgets, as presented in the current study.

  • 48. de la Vega, David
    et al.
    Matthews, James C. G.
    Norin, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Angulo, Itziar
    Mitigation Techniques to Reduce the Impact of Wind Turbines on Radar Services2013In: Energies, ISSN 1996-1073, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 6, no 6, p. 2859-2873Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Radar services are occasionally affected by wind farms. This paper presents a comprehensive description of the effects that a wind farm may cause on the different radar services, and it compiles a review of the recent research results regarding the mitigation techniques to minimize this impact. Mitigation techniques to be applied at the wind farm and on the radar systems are described. The development of thorough impact studies before the wind farm is installed is presented as the best way to analyze in advance the potential for interference, and subsequently identify the possible solutions to allow the coexistence of wind farms and radar services.

  • 49. Dee, D. P.
    et al.
    Uppala, S. M.
    Simmons, A. J.
    Berrisford, P.
    Poli, P.
    Kobayashi, S.
    Andrae, U.
    Balmaseda, M. A.
    Balsamo, G.
    Bauer, P.
    Bechtold, P.
    Beljaars, A. C. M.
    van de Berg, L.
    Bidlot, J.
    Bormann, N.
    Delsol, C.
    Dragani, R.
    Fuentes, M.
    Geer, A. J.
    Haimberger, L.
    Healy, S. B.
    Hersbach, H.
    Holm, E. V.
    Isaksen, L.
    Kållberg, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Koehler, M.
    Matricardi, M.
    McNally, A. P.
    Monge-Sanz, B. M.
    Morcrette, J. -J
    Park, B. -K
    Peubey, C.
    de Rosnay, P.
    Tavolato, C.
    Thepaut, J. -N
    Vitart, F.
    The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system2011In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 137, no 656, p. 553-597Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

  • 50. den Outer, P. N.
    et al.
    Slaper, H.
    Kaurola, J.
    Lindfors, A.
    Kazantzidis, A.
    Bais, A. F.
    Feister, U.
    Junk, J.
    Janouch, M.
    Josefsson, Weine
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Reconstructing of erythemal ultraviolet radiation levels in Europe for the past 4 decades2010In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 115, article id D10102Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper is based on a comparative study on ultraviolet radiation (UV) measurements and UV reconstruction models for eight sites in Europe. Reconstruction models include neural network techniques and radiative transfer modeling combined with empirical relationships. The models have been validated against quality-controlled ground-based measurements, 8 to 20 years, on time scales ranging from daily to yearly UV sums. The standard deviations in the ratios of modeled to measured daily sums vary between 10 and 15%. The yearly sums agree within a 5% range. Depending on the availability of ancillary measurements, reconstructions have been carried out to the early 1960s. A method has been set up to educe one best estimate of the historical UV levels that takes into account the long-term stability and underlying agreement of the models, and the agreement with actual UV measurements. Using this best estimate, the yearly sums of erythemally weighted UV irradiance showed a range of 300 kJ/m(2) at 67 degrees N to 750 kJ/m(2) at 40 degrees N. The year-to-year variability was lowest at 40 degrees N with a relative variation of 4.3%; for central and northern European latitudes this year-to-year variation was 5.2 to 6.5%. With regard to the period 1980 to 2006, first-order trend lines range from 0.3 +/- 0.1 to 0.6 +/- 0.2% per year, approximately two thirds of which can be attributed to the diminishing of cloudiness and one third to ozone decline.

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