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  • 1. Ahmadalipour, Ali
    et al.
    Moradkhani, Hamid
    Rana, Arun
    SMHI.
    Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin2018In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 50, no 1-2, p. 717-733Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 2. Akinsanola, A. A.
    et al.
    Ajayi, V. O.
    Adejare, A. T.
    Adeyeri, O. E.
    Gbode, I. E.
    Ogunjobi, K. O.
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Abolude, A. T.
    Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models2018In: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, E-ISSN 1434-4483, Vol. 132, no 1-2, p. 437-450Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 3. Akperov, M. G.
    et al.
    Eliseev, A. , V
    Mokhov, I. I.
    Semenov, V. A.
    Parfenova, M. R.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wind Energy Potential in the Arctic and Subarctic Regions and Its Projected Change in the 21st Century Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations2022In: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, ISSN 1068-3739, E-ISSN 1934-8096, Vol. 47, no 6, p. 428-436Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Eliseev, Alexey V.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Boberg, Fredrik
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Guenther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Sein, Dmitry
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)2023In: Anthropocene, E-ISSN 2213-3054, Vol. 44, article id 100402Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Cassano, John
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya A.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Glisan, Justin
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Guenther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koldunov, Nikolay V.
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Scinocca, John F.
    Sein, Dmitry
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)2018In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 123, no 5, p. 2537-2554Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 6. Akperov, Mirseid
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Mokhov, Igor I.
    Semenov, Vladimir A.
    Parfenova, Mariya R.
    Matthes, Heidrun
    Adakudlu, Muralidhar
    Boberg, Fredrik
    Christensen, Jens H.
    Dembitskaya, Mariya A.
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Fettweis, Xavier
    Gutjahr, Oliver
    Heinemann, Gunther
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koldunov, Nikolay, V
    Laprise, Rene
    Mottram, Ruth
    Nikiema, Oumarou
    Sein, Dmitry
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Winger, Katja
    Zhang, Wenxin
    Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)2019In: Global and Planetary Change, ISSN 0921-8181, E-ISSN 1872-6364, Vol. 182, article id UNSP 103005Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Moberg, A
    Homogenization of Swedish temperature data .1. Homogeneity test for linear trends1997In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 17, no 1, p. 25-34Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new test for the detection of linear trends of arbitrary length in normally distributed time series is developed. With this test it is possible to detect and estimate gradual changes of the mean value in a candidate series compared with a homogeneous reference series. The test is intended for studies of artificial relative trends in climatological time series, e.g. an increasing urban heat island effect. The basic structure of the new test is similar to that of a widely used test for abrupt changes, the standard normal homogeneity test. The test for abrupt changes is found to remain unaltered after an important generalization.

  • 8.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Tuomenvirta, H
    Schmith, T
    Iden, K
    Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set2000In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 71-73Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Within the WASA project (von Storch et al. 1998; Bull Am Meterol Soc 79(5):741-760) an extensive data set containing station pressure values was used to calculate geostrophic winds (Alexandersson et al. 1998; Global Atmos Ocean Syst 6:97-120). Geostrophic winds were analysed in terms of percentiles to give a measure of long-term variations in synoptic-scale storminess. In this paper an update to 1998 is presented. In the Scandinavia, Finland and Baltic Sea area the most recent years, especially the cold and calm year 1996, seem to have brought an end to the stormy period centred on 1990. In the more westerly British Isles, North Sea and Norwegian Sea area, storminess is still at high levels compared with the less intense period between 1930 and 1980. The long-term increasing trend in NW Europe storminess that started in the 1960s seems to have been broken.

  • 9. Alfieri, Lorenzo
    et al.
    Bisselink, Berny
    Dottori, Francesco
    Naumann, Gustavo
    de Roo, Ad
    Salamon, Peter
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Feyen, Luc
    Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world2017In: Earth's Future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 171-182Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 10. Amador, Jorge A.
    et al.
    Ambrizzi, Tercio
    Arritt, Raymond W.
    Castro, Christopher L.
    Cavazos, Tereza
    Cerezo-Mota, Ruth
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Guiliani, Graziano
    Lee, Huikyo
    Mendez-Perez, Matias
    Rivera, Erick R.
    Putting into action the REGCM4.6 regional climate model for the study of climate change, variability and modeling over Central America and Mexico2018In: Atmósfera, ISSN 0187-6236, Vol. 31, no 2, p. 185-188Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 11. Anderson, C J
    et al.
    Arritt, R W
    Takle, E S
    Pan, Z T
    Gutowski, W J
    Otieno, F O
    da Silva, R
    Caya, D
    Christensen, J H
    Luthi, D
    Gaertner, M A
    Gallardo, C
    Giorgi, F
    Hong, S Y
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Juang, H M H
    Katzfey, J J
    Lapenta, W M
    Laprise, R
    Larson, J W
    Liston, G E
    McGregor, J L
    Pielke, R A
    Roads, J O
    Taylor, J A
    Hydrological processes in regional climate model simulations of the central United States flood of June-July 19932003In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, ISSN 1525-755X, E-ISSN 1525-7541, Vol. 4, no 3, p. 584-598Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Thirteen regional climate model(RCM) simulations of June - July 1993 were compared with each other and observations. Water vapor conservation and precipitation characteristics in each RCM were examined for a 108 x 10degrees subregion of the upper Mississippi River basin, containing the region of maximum 60-day accumulated precipitation in all RCMs and station reports. All RCMs produced positive precipitation minus evapotranspiration ( P - E > 0), though most RCMs produced P - E below the observed range. RCM recycling ratios were within the range estimated from observations. No evidence of common errors of E was found. In contrast, common dry bias of P was found in the simulations. Daily cycles of terms in the water vapor conservation equation were qualitatively similar in most RCMs. Nocturnal maximums of P and C ( convergence) occurred in 9 of 13 RCMs, consistent with observations. Three of the four driest simulations failed to couple P and C overnight, producing afternoon maximum P. Further, dry simulations tended to produce a larger fraction of their 60-day accumulated precipitation from low 3-h totals. In station reports, accumulation from high ( low) 3-h totals had a nocturnal ( early morning) maximum. This time lag occurred, in part, because many mesoscale convective systems had reached peak intensity overnight and had declined in intensity by early morning. None of the RCMs contained such a time lag. It is recommended that short-period experiments be performed to examine the ability of RCMs to simulate mesoscale convective systems prior to generating long-period simulations for hydroclimatology.

  • 12.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin2011In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 63, no 1, p. 138-157Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 13.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Wilk, Julie
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Warburton, Michele
    School of Bioresources Engineering & Environmental HydrologyUniversity of KwaZulu-NatalPrivate Bag X01, Scottsville, 3209 South Africa.
    Local Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa - Recommendations for Adaptation2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report originates from a project entitled Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Local Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources (PAMO), financed by the Swedish Development Agency and Research Links cooperation (NRF and the Swedish Research Council). The project is based on interactions between stakeholders in the Mhlwazini/Bergville area of the Thukela River basin, climate and water researchers from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) during a series of workshops held in 2007-2009. Between the workshops, the researcher’s compiled locally relevant climate change related information, based on requests from the workshop participants, as a basis for this adaptation plan. The aim is to provide a local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources and adaptation strategies. The assessment identifies existing climate-water related problems, current adaptation strategies and recommendations for future action based on likelihoods for change and the severity if such changes will occur.Denna rapport har sitt ursprung i projektet Deltagande modellering för bedömning av lokal inverkan av klimatvariabilitet och förändringar på vattenresurser (PAMO), finansierat av Sida och Research Links (NFR i Sydafrika, samt VR i Sverige). Projektet baseras på interaktion mellan vattenintressenter i Mhlwazini/Bergville området av Thukelas avrinningsområde och klimat och vattenforskare från University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) och SMHI under en serie av workshops under 2007-2009. Mellan workshops har forskarna tagit fram klimatförändringsrelaterad information med lokal relevans, baserat på önskemål från deltagarna i workshops. Denna information har sedan använts som ett underlag till framtagandet av en anpassningsplan. Syftet är att tillhandahålla en lokal bedömning av sårbarhet relaterad till påverkan på vattenresurser av klimatförändringar, samt en lokalt föreslagen anpassningsstrategi. Existerande klimatrelaterade problem och nuvarande anpassningsstrategier har identifierats och rekommendationer för framtida aktioner, baserade på sannolikhet för förändringar och kännbarheten av konsekvenserna om dessa förändringar inträffar.

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    FULLTEXT01
  • 14.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology. SMHI, Core Services.
    Wilk, Julie
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Wikner, Jacob
    Mokwatlo, Suzan
    Petja, Brilliant
    Local early warning systems for drought - Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?2020In: Weather and Climate Extremes, ISSN 2212-0947, Vol. 28, article id UNSP 100241Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 15.
    Andersson, Sandra
    et al.
    SMHI, Core Services.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Landelius, Tomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Atmospheric remote sensing.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Schimanke, Semjon
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    SMHI Gridded Climatology2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A gridded dataset (SMHI Gridded Climatology - SMHIGridClim) has been produced forthe years 1961 - 2018 over an area covering the Nordic countries on a grid with 2.5 kmhorizontal resolution. The variables considered are the two meter temperature and twometer relative humidity on 1, 3 or 6 hour resolution, varying over the time periodcovered, the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the daily precipitation and thedaily snow depth. The gridding was done using optimal interpolation with the gridppopen source software from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.Observations for the analysis are provided by the Swedish, Finish and Norwegianmeteorological institutes, and the ECMWF. The ECA&D observation data set (e.g. usedfor the gridded E-OBS dataset) was considered for inclusion but was left out because ofcomplications with time stamps and accumulation periods varying between countries andperiods. Quality check of the observations was performed using the open source softwareTITAN, also developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.The first guess to the optimal interpolation was given by statistically downscaledforecasts from the UERRA-HARMONIE reanalysis at 11 km horizontal resolution. Thedownscaling was done to fit the output from the operational MEPS NWP system at 2.5km with a daily and yearly variation in the downscaling parameters.The quality of the SMHIGridClim dataset, in terms of annual mean RMSE, was shown tobe similar to that of gridded datasets covering the other Nordic countries; “seNorge”from Norway and the dataset “FMI_ClimGrid” from Finland.

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    RMK_118 SMHI Gridded Climatology
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    RMK_118 SMHI Gridded Climatology_appendixA_observations
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    RMK_118 SMHI Gridded Climatology_appendixB_errors
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    RMK_118 SMHI Gridded Climatology_appendixC_scripts
  • 16. Angel Gaertner, Miguel
    et al.
    Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Juan
    Romera, Raquel
    Dominguez, Marta
    Gil, Victoria
    Sanchez, Enrique
    Gallardo, Clemente
    Marcello Miglietta, Mario
    Walsh, Kevin J. E.
    Sein, Dmitry V.
    Somot, Samuel
    Dell'Aquila, Alessandro
    Teichmann, Claas
    Ahrens, Bodo
    Buonomo, Erasmo
    Colette, Augustin
    Bastin, Sophie
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling and increased resolution2018In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 51, no 3, p. 1041-1057Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 17. Arritt, Raymond W.
    et al.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Core Services.
    CHALLENGES IN REGIONAL-SCALE CLIMATE MODELING2011In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 92, no 3, p. 365-368Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 18. Askjaer, Thomas Gravgaard
    et al.
    Zhang, Qiong
    Schenk, Frederik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier
    Lu, Zhengyao
    Brierley, Chris M.
    Hopcroft, Peter O.
    Jungclaus, Johann
    Shi, Xiaoxu
    Lohmann, Gerrit
    Sun, Weiyi
    Liu, Jian
    Braconnot, Pascale
    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
    Wu, Zhipeng
    Yin, Qiuzhen
    Kang, Yibo
    Yang, Haijun
    Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations2022In: Quaternary Science Reviews, ISSN 0277-3791, E-ISSN 1873-457X, Vol. 296, article id 107801Article in journal (Refereed)
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    Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations
  • 19. Astrom, Christofer
    et al.
    Orru, Hans
    Rocklov, Joacim
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment2013In: BMJ Open, E-ISSN 2044-6055, Vol. 3, no 1, article id e001842Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Objectives: Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate. Design: A Europe-wide health impact assessment. Setting: An assessment for each of the EU27 countries. Methods: Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure-response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results: Between a reference period (1981-2010) and a future period (2021-2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period. Conclusions: The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe.

  • 20. Avery, Rachael S.
    et al.
    Greenwood, Sarah L.
    Schenk, Fredrik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Moren, Bjorn M.
    Armstrong Mckay, David I.
    Brunnberg, Lars
    Wohlfarth, Barbara
    A 725-year integrated offshore terrestrial varve chronology for southeastern Sweden suggests rapid ice retreat similar to 15 ka BP2020In: Boreas, ISSN 0300-9483, E-ISSN 1502-3885Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 21. Bador, Margot
    et al.
    Boe, Julien
    Terray, Laurent
    Alexander, Lisa, V
    Baker, Alexander
    Bellucci, Alessio
    Haarsma, Rein
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Moine, Marie-Pierre
    Lohmann, Katja
    Putrasahan, Dian A.
    Roberts, Chris
    Roberts, Malcolm
    Scoccimarro, Enrico
    Schiemann, Reinhard
    Seddon, Jon
    Senan, Retish
    Valcke, Sophie
    Vanniere, Benoit
    Impact of Higher Spatial Atmospheric Resolution on Precipitation Extremes Over Land in Global Climate Models2020In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 125, no 13, article id e2019JD032184Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 22. Ban, Nikolina
    et al.
    Caillaud, Cecile
    Coppola, Erika
    Pichelli, Emanuela
    Sobolowski, Stefan
    Adinolfi, Marianna
    Ahrens, Bodo
    Alias, Antoinette
    Anders, Ivonne
    Bastin, Sophie
    Belušić, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Berthou, Segolene
    Brisson, Erwan
    Cardoso, Rita M.
    Chan, Steven C.
    Christensen, Ole Bossing
    Fernandez, Jesus
    Fita, Lluis
    Frisius, Thomas
    Gasparac, Goran
    Giorgi, Filippo
    Goergen, Klaus
    Haugen, Jan Erik
    Hodnebrog, Oivind
    Kartsios, Stergios
    Katragkou, Eleni
    Kendon, Elizabeth J.
    Keuler, Klaus
    Lavin-Gullon, Alvaro
    Lenderink, Geert
    Leutwyler, David
    Lorenz, Torge
    Maraun, Douglas
    Mercogliano, Paola
    Milovac, Josipa
    Panitz, Hans-Juergen
    Raffa, Mario
    Remedio, Armelle Reca
    Schar, Christoph
    Soares, Pedro M. M.
    Srnec, Lidija
    Steensen, Birthe Marie
    Stocchi, Paolo
    Toelle, Merja H.
    Truhetz, Heimo
    Vergara-Temprado, Jesus
    de Vries, Hylke
    Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten
    Wulfmeyer, Volker
    Zander, Mar Janne
    The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation2021In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed)
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    The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I:evaluation of precipitation
  • 23. Barreiro, Marcelo
    et al.
    Sitz, Lina
    de Mello, Santiago
    Fuentes Franco, Ramon
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Renom, Madeleine
    Farneti, Riccardo
    Modelling the role of Atlantic air-sea interaction in the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on South American climate2019In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 39, no 2, p. 1104-1116Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 24. Barton, Emma J.
    et al.
    Taylor, Christopher M.
    Parker, Douglas J.
    Turner, Andrew G.
    Belušić, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Boeing, Steven J.
    Brooke, Jennifer K.
    Harlow, R. Chawn
    Harris, Phil P.
    Hunt, Kieran
    Jayakumar, A.
    Mitra, Ashis K.
    A case-study of land-atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India2020In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 146, no 731, p. 2891-2905Article in journal (Refereed)
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    A case-study of land–atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India
  • 25. Befort, Daniel J.
    et al.
    Kruschke, Tim
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Leckebusch, Gregor C.
    Objective identification of potentially damaging tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific2020In: Environmental Research Communications (ERC), E-ISSN 2515-7620, Vol. 2, no 3Article in journal (Refereed)
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  • 26. Belda, Michal
    et al.
    Skalak, Petr
    Farda, Ales
    Halenka, Tomas
    Deque, Michel
    Csima, Gabriella
    Bartholy, Judit
    Torma, Csaba
    Boroneant, Constanta
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Spiridonov, Valery
    CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal2015In: Advances in Meteorology, ISSN 1687-9309, E-ISSN 1687-9317, article id 354727Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3 degrees C in the first period and 2 and 5 degrees C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to -1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.

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  • 27. Beldring, S.
    et al.
    Andréasson, J.
    Bergström, Sten
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Jónsdóttir, J. F
    Rogozova, S.
    Rosberg, Jörgen
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Suomalainen, M.
    Tonning, T.
    Vehviläinen, B.
    Veijalainen, N.
    Mapping water resources in the Nordic region under a changing climate.2006Report (Other academic)
  • 28. Bellucci, A.
    et al.
    Haarsma, R.
    Bellouin, N.
    Booth, B.
    Cagnazzo, C.
    van den Hurk, B.
    Keenlyside, N.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Massonnet, F.
    Materia, S.
    Weiss, M.
    Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers2015In: Reviews of geophysics, ISSN 8755-1209, E-ISSN 1944-9208, Vol. 53, no 2, p. 165-202Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as signal carriers, transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

  • 29. Bellucci, A.
    et al.
    Haarsma, R.
    Gualdi, S.
    Athanasiadis, P. J.
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Cassou, C.
    Fernandez, E.
    Germe, A.
    Jungclaus, J.
    Kroeger, J.
    Matei, D.
    Mueller, W.
    Pohlmann, H.
    Salas y Melia, D.
    Sanchez, E.
    Smith, D.
    Terray, L.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Yang, S.
    An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions2015In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 44, no 9-10, p. 2787-2806Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction experiments, performed in the framework of the EU-funded COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) Project following the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocol is examined. The ensemble combines a variety of dynamical models, initialization and perturbation strategies, as well as data assimilation products employed to constrain the initial state of the system. Taking advantage of the multi-model approach, several aspects of decadal climate predictions are assessed, including predictive skill, impact of the initialization strategy and the level of uncertainty characterizing the predicted fluctuations of key climate variables. The present analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current generation of climate models adequately initialized have significant skill in predicting years ahead not only the anthropogenic warming but also part of the internal variability of the climate system. An important finding is that the multi-model ensemble mean does generally outperform the individual forecasts, a well-documented result for seasonal forecasting, supporting the need to extend the multi-model framework to real-time decadal predictions in order to maximize the predictive capabilities of currently available decadal forecast systems. The multi-model perspective did also allow a more robust assessment of the impact of the initialization strategy on the quality of decadal predictions, providing hints of an improved forecast skill under full-value (with respect to anomaly) initialization in the near-term range, over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region. Finally, the consistency across the different model predictions was assessed. Specifically, different systems reveal a general agreement in predicting the near-term evolution of surface temperatures, displaying positive correlations between different decadal hindcasts over most of the global domain.

  • 30.
    Belusic, Danijel
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Berg, Peter
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bozhinova, Denica
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Eronn, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Klehmet, Katharina
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Martins, Helena
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Nilsson, Carin
    Olsson, Jonas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Photiadou, Christiana
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Segersson, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Climate Extremes for Sweden2019Report (Other academic)
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  • 31.
    Belusic, Danijel
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    de Vries, Hylke
    Dobler, Andreas
    Landgren, Oskar
    Lind, Petter
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lindstedt, David
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Pedersen, Rasmus A.
    Carlos Sanchez-Perrino, Juan
    Toivonen, Erika
    van Ulft, Bert
    Wang, Fuxing
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Andrae, Ulf
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Batrak, Yurii
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Lenderink, Geert
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Pietikainen, Joni-Pekka
    Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    van Meijgaard, Erik
    Wu, Minchao
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales2020In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 13, no 3, p. 1311-1333Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 32.
    Belusic, Danijel
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Jukimenko, Alex
    Afforestation reduces cyclone intensity and precipitation extremes over Europe2019In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id UNSP 074009Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 33.
    Bengtsson,, Lennart
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Gustafsson, Nils
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    Döös, Bo
    SMHI.
    Söderman, Daniel
    Helsinki University in Finland.
    Moen, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Thompson, Thomas
    SMHI.
    Jakobsson, Paul
    SMHI.
    Bleckert, Gunnar
    SMHI.
    Henriksson, Ann-Beate
    SMHI.
    Lindgren, Bo
    SMHI.
    Kållberg, Per
    SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
    The Meteorological Auto Code (MAC) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at SMHI2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sweden was a pioneering country in the development of NumericalWeather Prediction (NWP). The worlds first operational numerical forecast was produced already in 1954 by the International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm. SMHI started a bit later, but in 1961 a long term program for development of NWP was initiated. The activities grew gradually during the 1960’s and resulted in a core component for the SMHI forecast services. An early challenge was to overcome the limited computational resources with slow computational speed, small memory size and primitive software support. It was necessary to compensate for these limitations with dedicated work and creativity. A core component in this work was the software system MAC (Meteorological Auto Code) that was developed by the NWP group at SMHI. The MAC system is described in detail in this report and it included all computational software needed for the weather service, for example numerical models, objective analysis techniques, automatic data extraction, quality control of observations as well as forecast products in graphical or digital form.

    We hope that this report will provide the younger generation with some insight into the conditions for development of NWP during the 1960’s.

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  • 34. Bentz, Barbara J.
    et al.
    Jonsson, Anna Maria
    Schroeder, Martin
    Weed, Aaron
    Wilcke, Renate
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Larsson, Karin
    Ips typographus and Dendroctonus ponderosae Models Project Thermal Suitability for Intra- and Inter-Continental Establishment in a Changing Climate2019In: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, E-ISSN 2624-893X, Vol. 2, article id UNSP 1Article in journal (Refereed)
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    fulltext
  • 35.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Zimmermann, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    MIdAS version 0.1: framtagande och utvärdering av ett nytt verktyg för biasjustering2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Bias adjustment is commonly applied to adjust results from climate models to make them compatible with impact models and for calculations of climate indicators. The issues arise from systematic deviations at regional and seasonal scales in climate model compared to observations. The core of a bias adjustment is an algorithm that transfers the model values toward a reference, often using a distribution of vales.The MIdAS (MultI-scale bias AdjuStment) method has been developed for bias adjustment at SMHI. A literature study was performed by a core group of researchers in different fields within SMHI to define the state-of-the-art in bias adjustment. With a focus on the main disciplines of SMHI (meteorology, hydrology and oceanography) and the parameters involved, a method for evaluation of historical and future performance was designed and applied to regions within Sweden and in several regions around the globe. The evaluation of multiple common bias adjustment methods showed that relatively simple methods perform equally well or even better than more intricate methods, besides a larger impact on the magnitude of climate change signals in some cases. The implementation of MIdASv0.1 performs generally equally and sometimes better than other analysed methods. 

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    MIdAS version 0.1
  • 36.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Bosshard, Thomas
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Yang, Wei
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Zimmermann, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    MIdASv0.2.1-MultI-scale bias AdjuStment2022In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 15, no 15, p. 6165-6180Article in journal (Refereed)
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    MIdASv0.2.1– MultI-scale bias AdjuStment
  • 37.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Impacts of using spectral nudging on regional climate model RCA4 simulations of the Arctic2013In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 849-859Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The performance of the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4 is investigated for the Arctic CORDEX (COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) region, with an emphasis on its suitability to be coupled to a regional ocean and sea ice model. Large biases in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are identified, with pronounced too-high pressure centred over the North Pole in summer of over 5 hPa, and too-low pressure in winter of a similar magnitude. These lead to biases in the surface winds, which will potentially lead to strong sea ice biases in a future coupled system. The large-scale circulation is believed to be the major reason for the biases, and an implementation of spectral nudging is applied to remedy the problems by constraining the large-scale components of the driving fields within the interior domain. It is found that the spectral nudging generally corrects for the MSLP and wind biases, while not significantly affecting other variables, such as surface radiative components, two-metre temperature and precipitation.

  • 38.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Doescher, Ralf
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Koenigk, Torben
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    On the effects of constraining atmospheric circulation in a coupled atmosphere-ocean Arctic regional climate model2016In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 11-12, p. 3499-3515Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 39.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Feldmann, H.
    Panitz, H. -J
    Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data2012In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 448, p. 80-92Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Bias correction of varying complexity - from simple scaling and additive corrections to more advanced histogram equalisation (HE) corrections - is applied to high resolution (7 km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The aim of the study is to compare different methods that are easily implemented and applied to the data, and to assess the applicability and impact of the bias correction depending on the type of bias. The model bias is determined by comparison to a new gridded high resolution (1 km) data set of temperature and precipitation, which is also used as reference for the corrections. The performance of the different methods depends on the type of bias of the model, and on the investigated statistic. Whereas simpler methods correct the first moment of the distributions, they can have adverse effects on higher moments. The HE method corrects also higher moments, but approximations of the transfer function are necessary when applying the method to other data than the calibration data. Here, an empirical transfer function with linear fits to the tails is compared to a version where the complete function is approximated by a linear fit. The latter is thus limited to corrections of the first and second moments of the distribution. While making the transfer function more generally applicable, these approximations also limit the performance of the HE method. For the current model biases, the linear approximation is found suitable for precipitation, but for temperature it is not able to correct the whole distribution. The lower performance of the linear correction is most pronounced in summer, and is likely due to a difference in skewness between the model and observational data. Further limitations of the HE method are due to the need for long time series in order to have robust distributions for calculating the transfer function. Theoretical approximations of the required length of the calibration period were performed by using different sampling sizes drawn from a known distribution. The excerise show that about 30 year long time series are needed to have reasonable accuracy for the estimation of variance, when also corrections of the annual cycle is required. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 40.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Moseley, Christopher
    Haerter, Jan O.
    Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures2013In: Nature Geoscience, ISSN 1752-0894, E-ISSN 1752-0908, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 181-185Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Precipitation changes can affect society more directly than variations in most other meteorological observables(1-3), but precipitation is difficult to characterize because of fluctuations on nearly all temporal and spatial scales. In addition, the intensity of extreme precipitation rises markedly at higher temperature(4-9), faster than the rate of increase in the atmosphere's water-holding capacity(1,4), termed the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. Invigoration of convective precipitation (such as thunderstorms) has been favoured over a rise in strati-form precipitation (such as large-scale frontal precipitation) as a cause for this increase(4,10), but the relative contributions of these two types of precipitation have been difficult to disentangle. Here we combine large data sets from radar measurements and rain gauges over Germany with corresponding synoptic observations and temperature records, and separate convective and stratiform precipitation events by cloud observations. We find that for stratiform precipitation, extremes increase with temperature at approximately the Clausius-Clapeyron rate, without characteristic scales. In contrast, convective precipitation exhibits characteristic spatial and temporal scales, and its intensity in response to warming exceeds the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. We conclude that convective precipitation responds much more sensitively to temperature increases than stratiform precipitation, and increasingly dominates events of extreme precipitation.

  • 41.
    Berg, Peter
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Wagner, Sven
    Kunstmann, Harald
    Schaedler, Gerd
    High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: part I-validation2013In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 40, no 1-2, p. 401-414Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A five-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for Europe, with a high resolution nest over Germany, is analysed in a two-part paper: Part I (the current paper) presents the performance of the models for the control period, and Part II presents results for near future climate changes. Two different RCMs, CLM and WRF, were used to dynamically downscale simulations with the ECHAM5 and CCCma3 global climate models (GCMs), as well as the ERA40-reanalysis for validation purposes. Three realisations of ECHAM5 and one with CCCma3 were downscaled with CLM, and additionally one realisation of ECHAM5 with WRF. An approach of double nesting was used, first to an approximately 50 km resolution for entire Europe and then to a domain of approximately 7 km covering Germany and its near surroundings. Comparisons of the fine nest simulations are made to earlier high resolution simulations for the region with the RCM REMO for two ECHAM5 realisations. Biases from the GCMs are generally carried over to the RCMs, which can then reduce or worsen the biases. The bias of the coarse nest is carried over to the fine nest but does not change in amplitude, i.e. the fine nest does not add additional mean bias to the simulations. The spatial pattern of the wet bias over central Europe is similar for all CLM simulations, and leads to a stronger bias in the fine nest simulations compared to that of WRF and REMO. The wet bias in the CLM model is found to be due to a too frequent drizzle, but for higher intensities the distributions are well simulated with both CLM and WRF at the 50 and 7 km resolutions. Also the spatial distributions are close to high resolution gridded observations. The REMO model has low biases in the domain averages over Germany and no drizzle problem, but has a shift in the mean precipitation patterns and a strong overestimation of higher intensities. The GCMs perform well in simulating the intensity distribution of precipitation at their own resolution, but the RCMs add value to the distributions when compared to observations at the fine nest resolution.

  • 42.
    Bergström, Lena
    et al.
    Institutionen för akvatiska resurser, Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU).
    Borgström, Pernilla
    Centrum för miljö- och klimatforskning, Lunds universitet (LU).
    Smith, Henrik G.
    Centrum för miljö- och klimatforskning, Lunds universitet (LU).
    Klimatförändringar och biologisk mångfald: Slutsatser från IPCC och IPBES i ett svenskt perspektiv2020Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change and loss of biodiversity are two parallel and strongly interlinked crises, and both are clearly connected to human activities. There is an increasing demand for actions to halt these negative developments, and to counteract detrimental impacts on the world’s ecosystems and humanity. However, the success of such actions might be impeded by the fact that climate change and biodiversity loss are often treated separately in policy, management and the public debate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly evaluates the current state of knowledge regarding climate change, its impacts and mitigation.

    The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is tasked with assessing the global status of biodiversity, and how changes in biodiversity affect human well-being. Both the IPCC and IPBES have presented conclusions on the state of the planet in recent reports, and have evaluated likely and potential ways forward for the global community in relation to the presented results. The IPCC highlights the need for ambitious climate targets and the need for the global community to act quickly to halt and limit global warming, stating that the faster the current emission trends can be broken, the better our prospects for minimizing negative impacts and climate-related risk, including risks for the functioning of the world’s ecosystems. The IPBES reports confirm the importance of biodiversity and ecosystem services for human societies at global, regional and local scales. However, human activities are having strong negative impacts on biodiversity today, which are further aggravated by climate change.

    In this report, we highlight selected findings in recent IPCC and IPBES reports, with a particular focus on connections between climate and biodiversity. We also use the reports of the IPCC and IPBES as a starting point to discuss interactions between climate change and biodiversity loss from a Swedish perspective, including presentations of selected examples of research focusing on such interplays. Finally, a selection of current and future challenges and needs related to climate change adaptation and biodiversity management in Sweden are highlighted and discussed. The report is produces by researchers from Lund University and the Department of Aquatic Resources at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) under a collaboration between the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI, national contact point for the IPCC), the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (national contact point for IPBES).

    If measures targeting climate change or biodiversity loss are to be successful, they must consider how the two stressors may interact. Additionally, it is important to ensure that policies and management actions build on available scientific knowledge. Climate change has impacts on all types of ecosystems today, for example through changes in temperature and precipitation or through an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as storms, heat waves and droughts. As it progresses, global warming will result in species extinctions, range-shifts, and changes in local community compositions, with consequences for ecosystem processes including those that constitute ecosystem services to humans. Most of the world’s ecosystems are also affected by other human activities, not least changes in land-use, which further increases their sensitivity to pressures caused by climate change. Human impacts on ecosystems have already resulted in biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning, with consequences for ecosystems’ abilities to contribute to human welfare, and this trend is foreseen to continue. Effects resulting in loss of ecosystem integrity may indeed also erode the resilience of ecosystems to climate change. Climate change and biodiversity loss are further linked through human actions to mitigate or adapt to climate change, and it is now known that such interactions can be both negative and positive, and vice versa.

    In Sweden, climate change is likely to impact biodiversity and ecosystem services in both natural and managed ecosystems, including arctic regions, forests, agroecosystems, coastal and marine areas, freshwaters as well as urban environments. These impacts need to be considered from a mitigation perspective, but there are also ample possibilities to plan for nature-based solutions that can achieve positive synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. For example, parallel goals of production and biodiversity preservation can be met in forest management, if this is planned and conducted with the aim of delivering multiple societal benefits. The adaptation of agriculture to new climatic conditions will create opportunities for, but also involve risks to biodiversity, and an explicit consideration of synergies will for example be needed with any increased demand of biomass for bioenergy purposes. Improved planning and conservation is particularly urgent in Sweden’s marine ecosystems, where climate change is expected to influence their biodiversity and productivity, as well as the ecosystems’ resilience to additional pressures, such as fishing and eutrophication. An increased need for renewable energy from, for example, offshore wind farms further enhances the need to integrate ecosystem perspectives in marine management. We discuss these and more examples further in the report.

    As shown by the reports from both the IPCC and IPBES, there is an urgent need for interventions to halt climate change as well as biodiversity loss, and to mitigate the negative consequences of these changes. Therefore, it is crucial to find synergies and avoid conflicts between measures targeting climate change and those targeting biodiversity. This could for example mean identifying and promoting ecosystem- and nature-based solutions in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

    Both the IPCC and IPBES emphasise the need for a transformative change in society in order to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss. In many cases – including in Sweden – achieving this will require integrated management across different levels of governance. Measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation can often be coordinated with measures for preserving biodiversity. However, such synergies will not happen by themselves, and therefore must be explicitly included in the planning stage. Developing a landscape perspective to management could facilitate positive synergies and serve to reduce potential local conflicts of interest. Since what is done or not done in the short term affects the need and possibility for future action, it is pivotal that measures operating on both the short and long term are considered simultaneously. A fundamental requirement for achieving positive synergies is the dissemination, evaluation and development of knowledge, and the establishment and maintenance of continuous dialogue between researchers and policy-makers at different levels.

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    Klimatförändringar och biologisk mångfald – Slutsatser från IPCC och IPBES i ett svenskt perspektiv
  • 43.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Andréasson, Johan
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Use of Hydrological Data and Climate Scenarios for Climate Change Detection in the Baltic Basin2004In: Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, Vol. 4, p. 158-159Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 44.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Carlsson, Bengt
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Lindström, Göran
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Pettersson, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden - assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling2001In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 16, no 2, p. 101-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish regional climate modelling programme, SWECLIM, started in 1997 with the main goal being to produce regional climate change scenarios over the Nordic area on a time scale of 50 to 100 yr. An additional goal is to produce water resources scenarios with a focus on hydropower production, dam safety, water supply and environmental aspects of water resources. The scenarios are produced by a combination of global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models and hydrological runoff models. The GCM simulations used thus far are 10 yr time slices from 2 different GCMs, UKMO HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre and the ECHAM4/OPYC3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The regional climate model is a modified version of the international HIRLAM forecast model and the hydrological model is the HBV model developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Scenarios of river runoff have been simulated for 6 selected basins covering the major climate regions in Sweden. Changes in runoff totals, runoff regimes and extreme values have been analysed with a focus on the uncertainties introduced by the choice of GCM and routines for estimation of evapotranspiration in the hydrological model. It is further shown how these choices affect the statistical return periods of future extremes in a design situation.

  • 45.
    Bergström, Sten
    et al.
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Graham, Phil
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Gardelin, Marie
    SMHI, Professional Services.
    Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Baltic Basin.2001In: Proceedings of the third study conference on BALTEX / [ed] J. Meywerk, 2001, p. 17-18Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 46. Berlin, Mats
    et al.
    Persson, Torgny
    Jansson, Gunnar
    Haapanen, Matti
    Ruotsalainen, Seppo
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Gull, Bengt Andersson
    Scots pine transfer effect models for growth and survival in Sweden and Finland2016In: Silva Fennica, ISSN 0037-5330, E-ISSN 2242-4075, Vol. 50, no 3, article id 1562Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we developed models of transfer effects for growth and survival of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Sweden and Finland using a general linear mixed-model approach. For model development, we used 378 provenance and progeny trials with a total of 276 unimproved genetic entries (provenances and stand seed check-lots) distributed over a wide variety of climatic conditions in both countries. In addition, we used 119 progeny trials with 3921 selected genetic entries (open-and control pollinated plus-tree families) for testing model performance. As explanatory variables, both climatic indices derived from high-resolution gridded climate datasets and geographical variables were used. For transfer, latitude (photoperiod) and, for describing the site, temperature sum were found to be main drivers for both survival and growth. In addition, interaction terms (between transfer in latitude and site altitude for survival, and transfer in latitude and temperature sum for growth) entail changed reaction patterns of the models depending on climatic conditions of the growing site. The new models behave in a way that corresponds well to previous studies and recommendations for both countries. The model performance was tested using selected plus-trees from open and control pollinated progeny tests. Results imply that the models are valid for both countries and perform well also for genetically improved material. These models are the first step in developing common deployment recommendations for genetically improved forest regeneration material in both Sweden and Finland.

  • 47. Berthou, Segolene
    et al.
    Roberts, Malcolm J.
    Vanniere, Benoit
    Ban, Nikolina
    Belušić, Danijel
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Caillaud, Cecile
    Crocker, Thomas
    de Vries, Hylke
    Dobler, Andreas
    Harris, Dan
    Kendon, Elizabeth J.
    Landgren, Oskar
    Manning, Colin
    Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe2022In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 17, no 11, article id 114055Article in journal (Refereed)
    Download full text (pdf)
    Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe
  • 48. Betts, Richard A.
    et al.
    Alfieri, Lorenzo
    Bradshaw, Catherine
    Caesar, John
    Feyen, Luc
    Friedlingstein, Pierre
    Gohar, Laila
    Koutroulis, Aristeidis
    Lewis, Kirsty
    Morfopoulos, Catherine
    Papadimitriou, Lamprini
    Richardson, Katy J.
    Tsanis, Ioannis
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model2018In: Philosophical Transactions. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering science, ISSN 1364-503X, E-ISSN 1471-2962, Vol. 376, no 2119, article id 20160452Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 49. Bjorkman, Christer
    et al.
    Kindvall, Oskar
    Hoglund, Solveig
    Lilja, Anna
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Bärring, Lars
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Eklund, Karin
    High Temperature Triggers Latent Variation among Individuals: Oviposition Rate and Probability for Outbreaks2011In: PLOS ONE, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 6, no 1, article id e16590Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: It is anticipated that extreme population events, such as extinctions and outbreaks, will become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. To evaluate the increased probability of such events, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms involved. Variation between individuals in their response to climatic factors is an important consideration, especially if microevolution is expected to change the composition of populations. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we present data of a willow leaf beetle species, showing high variation among individuals in oviposition rate at a high temperature (20 degrees C). It is particularly noteworthy that not all individuals responded to changes in temperature; individuals laying few eggs at 20 degrees C continued to do so when transferred to 12 degrees C, whereas individuals that laid many eggs at 20 degrees C reduced their oviposition and laid the same number of eggs as the others when transferred to 12 degrees C. When transferred back to 20 degrees C most individuals reverted to their original oviposition rate. Thus, high variation among individuals was only observed at the higher temperature. Using a simple population model and based on regional climate change scenarios we show that the probability of outbreaks increases if there is a realistic increase in the number of warm summers. The probability of outbreaks also increased with increasing heritability of the ability to respond to increased temperature. Conclusions/Significance: If climate becomes warmer and there is latent variation among individuals in their temperature response, the probability for outbreaks may increase. However, the likelihood for microevolution to play a role may be low. This conclusion is based on the fact that it has been difficult to show that microevolution affect the probability for extinctions. Our results highlight the urge for cautiousness when predicting the future concerning probabilities for extreme population events.

  • 50. Blenckner, T
    et al.
    Omstedt, Anders
    SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    A Swedish case study of contemporary and possible future consequences of climate change on lake function2002In: Aquatic Sciences, ISSN 1015-1621, E-ISSN 1420-9055, Vol. 64, no 2, p. 171-184Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A physical lake model was employed to obtain a basis of discussing the impact of climate variability and climate change on the ecology of Lake Erken, Sweden. The validity of this approach was tested by running the PROBE-lake model for a 30-year period (STD) with observed meteorological data. The lake is adequately modelled, as seen in the comparison with actual lake observations. The validated lake model was then forced with meteorological data obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) with a horizontal resolution of 44 km for present (CLTR) and 2 x CO(2) (SCEN) climate conditions. The CUR lake simulation compares reasonably with the STD. Applying the SCEN simulation leads to a climate change scenario for the lake. The physical changes include elevated temperatures, shorter periods of ice cover combined with two of ten years being totally ice-free, and changes in the mixing regime. The ecological consequences of the physical simulation results are derived from the historical dataset of Lake Erken. Consequences of a warmer climate could imply increased nutrient cycling and lake productivity. The results suggest that an application of RCMs with a suitable resolution for lakes in combination with physical lake models allows projection of the responses of lakes to a future climate.

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